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Dubious One Year Anniversary of Fall of Mosul Reached; Investigators Interviewing Suspected Insider In New York Prison Escape; Questions Surround Awarding of 2010 World Cup to South Africa; Jeb Bush Visits Germany; Saudi Supreme Court Upholds Raif Badawi's Sentence. Aired 11:00a- 12:00p ET

Aired June 9, 2015 - 11:00   ET


[11:00:07] ISHA SESAY, HOST: An unhappy anniversary. One year has passed since Iraq's strategic city of Mosul fell to ISIS.

Tonight, we're live in the capital Baghdad where Iraqis fleeing the violence are flocking to. And on the front lines with Iraqi forces.




SESAY: CNN's Nick Paton Walsh takes us to a battle against ISIS in an exclusive report.

Also ahead, lashed for words, Saudi Arabia's supreme court upholds a 1,000 lash sentence against blogger Raid Badawi. We'll look at what's next

for him and the state of human rights in the kingdom.

ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Center, this is Connect the World.

SEAY: Hello, everyone.

We begin in Iraq where one year after the fall of Mosul, Iraqi forces are locked in battle with ISIS to recapture territory from the militant

group. There have been conflicting reports over who controls Baiji, a town whose oil refinery has been a frequent battleground.

The United States believes only half the town is in Iraqi hands while Iraqi officials tell CNN government forces have retaken most of the town's


It comes as the country marks one year since ISIS took control of Mosul, Iraqs' second largest city, its fall last year was a blow to the

central government, which is struggling to contain a sectarian divide.

Well, Ben Wedeman is in Baghdad with the very latest and joins us now.

Ben, one year on and Mosul is still in the hands of ISIS. Where do things stand with a counter offensive to retake Iraq's second largest city?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: They're still in its very early stages, preparations for retaking Mosul.

Now earlier this year, we did hear an American official talking about a late spring offensive to retake the city, but of course now we are in

June and there's no sign of any imminent action.

Now, the Iraqi government has assigned a general for this particular task. They're talking about moving on the city, but really their hands are

already so full.

First of all, now they're trying to retake Ramadi, which fell to ISIS on the 17th of May. As you mentioned, Iraqi officials say at this point

Baiji, they control almost all of the city, it's just the northern suburb of Mohundasine (ph) where they say they're encountering some resistance.

But their progress, as is so often the case, is being slowed down by booby traps and snipers and other things left behind by ISIS.

But, you have to keep in mind that they need to clear Baiji. They need to sort of stabilize the situation in the area south of Mosul before

they can even seriously consider any move on the city itself.

And as, of course, Iraqis wait for that offensive to happen, more than a million people have fled Mosul as it is. Today, we spoke to some

refugees here in Baghdad from Iraq's second largest city and they are extremely pessimistic. These are Christian refugees living in a school

that's now become a refugee camp. They say that they've almost given up hope that they can return in the near future, some of them have spent

months in refugee camps, in tents, in the northern part of the country before coming to Baghdad.

One man told me simply the chances that he's going to return home at this point are one in a million -- Isha.

SESAY: And Ben, these are the lucky ones that have managed to flee Mosul.

One year on, what are we hearing about the conditions inside the city?

WEDEMAN: Well, what we understand is that ISIS with now a year in Mosul has really been able to take control of the city. They try to make

it function. ISIS oftentimes puts out propaganda videos and photographs of restaurants and public parks trying to show that life is normal, but all

accounts coming out of Mosul would indicate it's quite to the contrary, that ISIS has absolutely no tolerance for any form of dissent whatsoever.

The economy apparently is in shambles at the moment, that many people, as I mentioned before, have left because life is simply unbearable, particularly

for minorities -- Shias, Christians, Yazidis, Kurds who are bearing the brunt of much of ISIS's ethnic cleansing campaign, so to speak, in that

part of the country.

So, the situation in Mosul extremely difficult. And it's only going to get worse the longer that group is able to maintain its control of the


SESAY: CNN international correspondent Ben Wedema joining us there from Baghdad. Ben, always appreciated. Thank you.

Now, Iraqi forces have been gathering near Ramadi preparing, we're told, to retake the city from ISIS. The Habbaniyah military base is

playing a key role in the assault as a staging ground for those troops.

CNN is the first western television network granted access to the base since the fall of Ramadi last month. Iraqi military officials insist they

are holding back the militants, but complain bitterly at what they say is a lack of coalition air support.

Nick Paton Walsh reports from the front lines.


[11:00:28] NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Along edgy road, leads to the Iraqi base at Habbaniyah, the closest the military

has taken western television towards Ramadi since it fell to ISIS.

Huge, sprawling, it's meant to be where soldiers and militias, both Sunni and Shia, are amassing to retake Ramadi from ISIS. But we're told

they're mostly deployed outside.

And here, it is the Iraqi army along the northern edge of their base in a vicious front line with ISIS along the river.

ISIS have blocked a dam upstream to lower the tides and help them attack.

Well, it is minute by minute here. The situation can change, and that riverbed very much the front line. They've been using water from the lake

to keep its levels high, but still as you can hear, ISIS are very close.

They see and watch ISIS daily, but say they are overlooked by coalition airstrikes.

"They're supposed to give us some support now from war planes," he says. "We're in control of the ground. What we need is air support."

Here, caught between the ISIS towns of Ramadi and Fallujah. They face 1,000 ISIS they think. But here, he says, he sees only a few with long

beards and a flag here.

But soon, ISIS fire back. This is what happens when you poke that snake.

They lead us out. This, the Iraqi army stronghold, where they speak of readiness and glory to come, yet seem busied by an enemy far too close.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Habbaniyah, Iraq.


SESAY: Well, ISIS militants are fighting to expand their reach across the Middle East and are now claiming significant new gains in Libya. They

say they've taken over a power plant west of Sirte, releasing these pictures to try to prove it. ISIS also posted a statement on social media

claiming their fighters now control the entire city as well.

ISIS seized most of Sirte earlier this year. It's also claimed responsibility for attacks on hotels and embassies in Tripoli.

Well, the chaos in Libya is fueling a spike in migrant journeys across the Mediterranean, allowing human traffickers to operate virtually at will.

We're now learning the true extent of the crisis at sea.

The United Nations says more than 100,000 people have made the crossing to Europe this year alone, risking everything for the chance at a

better life.

Far too often, though, the journey ends in tragedy. The UN says nearly 1,800 migrants died this year at sea. The vast majority of

survivors are coming ashore in Italy and Greece. Our own Isa Soares went on patrol with the Greek coast guard to show us their search and rescue



ISA SOARES, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The Helena coast guard have been patrolling the seas pretty much all night. The weather is not so

good today, but we have come nevertheless across the dinghy. These five men arriving, rowing, as you can see paddling their way to Greece, the

Hellenic authorities now -- I'm going to move slightly back. So they can actually move with them, trying to bring them on shore, to safety.

The distance between Turkey and Greece is something like 6 kilometers. So for many, this is indeed a fast route.

And what we have seen in terms of the people coming here, seems to be a lot more Syrians than before. They used to go to Italy via the

Mediterranean, they're now coming here because it is so much quicker.

Temperatures, as you can see, are not great. It's somewhat cloudy. The waters are somewhat choppy, too, but that's not stopping boatload after

boatload of migrants from arriving here.

The coast guards work tirelessly to make sure their number one priority is to have to make sure that they are safe.

As you can see, it is very tough to bring them on board to safety trying to keep them here. But they have a phenomenal track record. And

they are proud of it.

They're now boarding the boat with very few belongings they had brought with them. We don't know the nationalities. We have asked them.

We are not getting any answers. Clearly, very shocked.

We have seen majority from Syria, some 70 percent, but also many from Afghanistan and Iraq. Many telling us this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Isa Soares, CNN, near Kos in Greece.


[11:10:40] SESAY: Still to come tonight, Saudi court upholds a lengthy prison term and public lashing for a blogger. We'll have the

details in about 25 minutes.

But first, a year after the fall of a major city to ISIS, Iraq still struggles against an insurgent enemy. We look at the U.S. search for a

strategy and how it's provoking political controversy.


SESAY: On the front lines against ISIS and at the heart of the debate on how to fight the militant group. Iraqi troops are seen here are taking

on ISIS near Fallujah are backed by U.S.-led airstrikes and local Shiite militias.

One year since the fall of Mosul, the fight against ISIS rages on several fronts.

You're watching CNN, and this is Connect the World. Welcome back everyone.

Staying with our top story, remarks from the U.S. president at the G7 about U.S. involvement in Iraq have caused controversy. Barack Obama said

the American government is still trying to figure out how best to support the fragile Iraqi army. Take a listen.


BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: A finalized plan is presented to me by the Pentagon, then I will share it with the American

people. It's not -- we don't yet have a complete strategy because it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis as well about how

recruitment takes place, how that training takes place. And so the details of that are not yet worked out.


SESAY: Well, for more on this, let's bring in our chief U.S. security correspondent Jim Sciutto who is standing by for us in Washington. Jim,

always good to have you on the show.

The president's comments have been seized by his critics, many asking what his administration being doing all these months? And that's a

legitimate question.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think the administration would say it was unfortunate phrasing by the president to say that we don't

have a strategy for shoring up the Iraqi military, but the fact is they don't have an answer to that question, because the performance of the Iraqi

military over the course of the last year has been wanting.

And the fact is, that the U.S.-led campaign depends on Iraqi forces and Kurdish forces on the ground, because the U.S. and the coalition

partners will not commit large numbers of ground forces. They know they need those Iraqi forces.

And listen, you know, the administration will play down the importance of Ramadi. They'll say that, as the president did yesterday, that the

U.S.-led coalition is picking up grounding other places, but when you look at that map, the map really has not changed in months. The administration

knows it. The Pentagon knows it. And you saw the president in effect admitting yesterday that they need a new plan to shore up the Iraqi

military. That's basically going to be more training.

But training takes time. And then -- then it takes time for that new training to reap rewards on the battlefield. So it's just another

reminder, you know, this is effectively a stalemate on the ground. And it's going to be a long time before you see that change, at least you know,

in substantive terms on the ground.

[11:15:51] SESAY: The president saying a new plan in regards to Iraqi forces, Iraqi defense forces. Some would be saying why aren't we looking

at an overhaul of the entire U.S.-led coalition strategy?

SCIUTTO: It's a fair question, because, listen, you know, first of all that takes time. And during that time, let's say you train up Iraqi

forces. And let's say you do turn it around in a number of months. It's still going to take years, really to gain back the ground that Iraqi forces

have lost to the Islamic State, that's something that U.S. officials have said openly for some time.

During that time period, what is the Islamic State up to? It's training more foreign fighters, some of those foreign fighters are going

home, so you're going to see the back burn from that in effect. You know, when you have those experience fighters possibly carrying out acts of

terror on foreign soil.

Meanwhile, it's also inspiring attackers from afar just purely based on social media. We've seen that in the States, we've seen that in Europe.

So, the longer it takes, really the longer the costs are of having a really the largest terror and most capable terror organization with the

greatest amount of ground that we've ever seen historically, drawing as well, I talked to U.S. officials, it has drawn more foreign fighters than

Afghanistan ever did during the Soviet occupation.

And remember Afghanistan in the 80s spawned al Qaeda in the 90s and the 2000s. So, you know, the longer it takes, the longer you're going to

have to pay the price for it. It's a very reasonable question, but it's one that the administration doesn't have an answer to yet.

SESAY: Jim Sciutto joining us there from Washington. Always appreciate it, Jim. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: Thank you.

SESAY: I want to bring in Afzal Ashraf. He's a consultant fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Afzal, thanks so much for

joining us.

What do you make of the president's comments that he's waiting for a plan from the national security advisers to solidify training of Iraq's

defense forces. What are your thoughts?

AFZAL ASHRAF, CONSULTANT FELLOW, RUSI: Well, if he's waiting for a plan to solidify the training, when he needs to ask is where is the plan to

actually use the benefits of that training?

What we have here is a total absence of strategy. And that's become evident not just in comments that the president has made, but also in the

actual outcomes that we've seen in the last year.

We've got a de facto strategy with a coalition doing the air part, and we've got the Iraqi forces doing the ground part. But the fact that these

two are not coordinating was evident when there was this debate over Ramadi with both of them blaming the other.

So, there isn't a single strategy, there isn't a single command and control, and this training issue is something that's been going on for over

a year. So I think we've got some very serious questions to ask.

SESAY: Yeah, indeed.

And to your point, I want to remind our viewers how much territory ISIS has been able to capture and hold since they emerged just over two

years ago.

Let's pull up a map for our viewers. This map shows areas of Syria and Iraq that ISIS controls in red and areas where they enjoy significant

freedom of movement in yellow. Key areas under ISIS control as you see there with me Afzal, include Raqqa in Syria, Mosul in northern Iraq and the

city of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province. Just over 100 kilometers from Baghdad.

I do have to ask you as we talk about the failure on the part of the coalition strategy, how is it that ISIS has been able to hold this

territory despite the airstrikes, despite the ground offensives? I mean, their facing a U.S.-led coalition here.

ASHRAF: Well, is it a U.S.-led coalition? This is the question. The U.S.-led coalition is doing the air part, but you can't do anything without

a ground element.

And so, yes, it's a very good question. I don't think there should be any doubt that air campaigns are not very successful against insurgencies

unless they're augmented by an effective ground force. And that's what we've been lacking.

So, I think that the answer to that question is obvious is that we don't have a integrated strategy both for the air and land components. And

we don't have, if you like, a willingness and a commitment to defeat ISIS.

It might sound strange, but if you look at the behavior of both regional powers and the U.S., they've been prioritizing things other than

ISIS. They've been prioritizing what's been going on in Yemen, which is at best a local problem, regional in a very limited sense. They've been

prioritizing the war against Assad. But DAESH or ISIS, which represents an existential threat to everybody -- the region to the Sunnis, the Shias, the

Iranians, the Arabs, it represents a threat to the Europeans and the Americans, they're not giving it the priority, they're not -- they don't

have the coalition coordination and unity that exists for other areas.

So, I think it's not surprising what we're seeing on the ground.

SESAY: So, with that rather bleak assessment of the U.S.-led coalition's commitment to this fight, where do we go from here in your


ASHRAF: Well, I think we need to stop saying, oh, it's going to take three years. I mean, you put up that map, almost every bit of that

territory on that map was captured by ISIS, which is an insurgency group, within a matter of weeks. Why is it that this international coalition with

the most advanced weapons, the most advanced fighters and fighting techniques is going to take years to remove them? I mean, that's a bit of

logic that escapes not just the ordinary man in the street, but also a lot of analysts.

It's almost as though there is a plan to make this thing stretch out for as long as possible. It's almost as though there is a plan to avoid

victory in the short-term.

If you're thinking along those lines that it's going to take years to recapture territory that a bunch of guys took in a matter of weeks, you

have to ask about the psychology and the commitment behind this thinking.

[11:21:49] SESAY: Some would say it's just about keeping expectations low, because to say otherwise would be unrealistic and to offer false hope.

ASHRAF: Well, that might have been true if we had been saying that we would capture it back in the same time, or even in that many months. But

we are, you know, years on from this. And you really do need to ask the question whether we can succeed.

You see, your correspondent, Jim, just made an analogy with Afghanistan where there were fewer foreign fighters in Afghanistan. We

mustn't forget that those foreign fighters in Afghanistan actually defeated the world's greatest super power at the time in terms of weapons and in

terms of personnel and arms, the Soviet Union.

So, if we allow insurgencies time, insurgencies have the ability to adapt over time. The only strength that conventional forces have is the

speed of reaction. And this is what we're not exploiting is the speed of reaction, the mobility capability, the maneuvering capability that

conventional forces have.

We're instead giving the insurgents their strength, which is time.

SESAY: Afzal Ashraf, it's great to get your insight and perspective today. Thank you so much for joining us from London. Thank you.

ASHRAF: Pleasure.

SESAY: Live from CNN Center, this is Connect the World. Coming up, what's in a name? Quite a bit if you're this American politician and you

want to visit to Europe. Well, look at Jeb Bush's big trip overseas. And how his big brother could affect how he's received.

Also ahead, wine, relaxation and the good life. We'll take you to Sonoma, California after the break.



[11:25:07] JOHN DEFTERIOS, EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: This week, One Square Meter is in the Sonoma valley, about an hour north of San Francisco.

We're taking a look at why more and more people are designing a lifestyle in the vineyards.

This is a region of the world where the grape is king, where time seems to slow down, and the focus is on eating, drinking and living well.

To the tourists that visit every year, California's Napa Valley is considered one of the premier winemaking destinations, but for those

seeking to live life amongst the vines, Napa's next door neighbor, Sonoma, holds more appeal for those seeking something a bit more low key.

UNIDENITIFIED FEMALE: There is a little bit of a rivalry, too, between Napa and Sonoma. When it comes to big cities and having such an

amazingly different culture compared to living in San Francisco, that's feasible in less than an hour away is really magical.

DEFTERIOS: Carol Copeland (ph) was seeking an escape from her big city life as a tech attorney. In 2011, she bought an old farm house in

Sonoma Valley with four hectares of vines and is now producing 1,000 cases a year.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, the first thing to of course I think that I think people are buying into is to have this whole notion of like living

in wine country, which is all about getting some rest, relaxation and being in wine country.

DEFTERIOS: In a county that stretches across 4,100 square kilometers, the number of high-end buyers are growing, attracting people like investor

George Hamill Jr. who bought a 50 hectare plot in Sonoma Valley in 2010 in the midst of the recession.

The growth has only continued. Sales of houses in the million to three million dollar range doubled between 2012 and 2014 to more than 450

properties last year.

DONALD VAN DO MARK: It's been a very organic, and I think a very healthy recovery in this market. It started three years ago at the low end

under $800,000 or $900,000. Now, we have a lot of competition up to $2.5 million.

DEFTERIOS: The small town of Glenn Allen in Sonoma County is reflective of this move upscale.

This restaurant has ridden the way of interest in Sonoma and opened its doors three years ago when the property market started to pick up.

The Glenn Allen Star has received accolades all along the way.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let's go to table 23, finishing.

Raw cauliflower.

DEFTERIOS: Restaurateur Ari Weiswasser moved west after years of plying his trade in Manhattan.

ARI WEISWASSER, RESTAURANT OWNER: You have incredible wineries, tasting rooms, and restaurants all of the beautiful agriculture from the

cheese making to the duck eggs to the bantham chicken eggs. It's pretty local.

DEFTERIOS: Few places in the world offer the option of a vibrant lifestyle at such a relatively low cost for the area, especially so close

to tech hot spots like San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I love wine. And I've always had this romantic ideal about what it would be like to have a wine label.

DEFTERIOS: From the bustling restaurants and tasting rooms between the best nature has to offer, to the sprawling retreats being snapped up.

Sonoma has cast a spell that seems here to stay.

John Defterios, CNN, Sonoma Valley.


[11:31:09] SESAY: Hello, everyone. This is Connect the World. The top stories this hour.

It's been a year since ISIS shocked the world and captured Iraq's second largest city. Nearly half of Mosul's population has since fled and

security forces still haven't begun a long awaited offensive to recapture the city. They're instead focusing on other areas controlled by ISIS,

including Ramadi.

The United Nations says more than 100,000 migrants have crossed the Mediterranean to Europe this year alone fighting a dramatic increase in

arrivals. The vast majority of those risking their lives in rickety boats or dinghies are coming ashore in Italy and Greece.

Firefighters in Ukraine are battling a huge fire at an oil depot near the capital Kiev. The government there has evacuated people within two

kilometers of the blast site amid fears there could be another explosion.

Now his case has sparked outrage around the world, but Saudi Arabia apparently is not backing down in the face of international pressure. The

country's supreme court upheld a sentence of 10 years imprisonment and 1,000 lashes for blogger Raif Badawi, that's according to his sister.

Badawi endured the first round of 50 lashes in January, but then the flogging was suspended on medical grounds.

Our Nic Robertson spoke to Raif's sister Samaa back in February about her brother's punishment.


NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: January 9 Raif Badawi is getting lashed, the first 50 of 1,000 lashes to be broken up into 20

weekly installments. Somewhere in the crowd, his sister is getting jostled.

SAMAR BADAWI, HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGNER: And after lashing gets finished, I feel disgustment when of the people they were saying Allahu

Akbar, Allahu Akbar. Why you say like that? He didn't do anything. And I will call -- I will talk some one in front of me and I said, you know him.

He said, no. I said, you know why they will give him this lash? He said no.

ROBERTSON: A little later, her brother calls her from jail.

BADAWI: And he said, I saw you there. That's his first word.

I said yes, I'm there.

He said, yes, I saw you. You see my smile?

I said, yes, I see you smile. You see my smile?

He said, yes, I see your smile.

And I say, how would you feel now?

He said, I feel pain, but I'm very happy you are there.


SESAY: That was Raif Badawi's sister speaking to our own Nic Robertson back in February.

Well, Raif has been imprisoned since 2012 and was charged with violating Saudi Arabia's information technology law and insulting Islam

through his website.

Our Fred Pleitgen has been following this story and joins us now from London.

Fred, how surprised should we be that the supreme court upheld this sentence for Raif Badawi?

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly a little bit surprised, because of course there was a lot of international

backlash, a lot of international outrage. Of course, there were protests that went on around the world. And the international backlash was one of

the things that of course in the first place sparked Saudi authorities to then bring this case to the Supreme Court and have it reviewed there.

Now of course you can imagine the reaction to the verdict by the supreme court is one that is pretty much the same. The U.S. says it's very

concerned about the fact that the verdict and the sentence have been upheld. It once again called on the Saudi authorities not to follow

through on the other lashings that are still set to take place. Also said that the case should be reviewed again.

Sweden for its part have said the same thing. The Swedish foreign minister once again calling this verdict, quote, Medieval. Of course,

there has been a big diplomatic row between Sweden and Saudi Arabia over this.

So, certainly the backlash is something that is the same once again.

We've also reached out to the Saudi authorities, so far have not gotten any comment from them. But certainly there is great -- a great deal

of concern worldwide.

Also, because we have to keep in mind that if the sentence is now followed through, if in fact he receives those 950 lashes that he's still

due, those are installments of 19 installments of 50 lashes each. So certainly that is something that's very, very harsh punishment. And then

on top of that, of course, there is still that 10-year jail sentence, which would then be followed by a 10 year travel ban.

So there certainly is a lot of concern. And quite frankly there is some surprise as well that the supreme court upheld this verdict, Isha.

[11:35:25] SESAY: Yeah.

And Fred, have we heard anything from Raif Badawi himself via any family members? Have we got reaction from his family to this turn of


PLEITGEN: Well, we have heard from his sister, once again. She, however, does not want to speak on camera at this point in time. She

simply put us towards a statement that was given by a human rights group from Saudi Arabia also saying that this punishment is very hard, also

talking about the grave concern for it.

Of course, it's very difficult for these people to speak out in the current environment. For instance, Raif Badawi's sister, her husband is in

jail as well. And he's one who handled her case when she was in front of the court.

So it is very difficult for them. So far, we've heard very little. We've been reaching out to family members. We've been reaching out to

spokespeople for the family as well. But at this point in time, we are still chasing that, Isha.

SESAY: Yeah, I think for a lot of people when they hear that this sentence has been upheld by the supreme court and they put it in the

context of Saudi Arabia getting a new king, they wonder about the state of human rights and the future direction of the kingdom.

PLEITGEN: Yeah, they certainly do. And it's certainly -- it is something that has been on the table, and certainly something where many

people when the new king came into power thought that there could be fundamental change in the kingdom. So far, that has not been the case.

However, one of the things that we also have to keep in mind is that things change slowly there. And certainly there was reform that was done

by the previous king. There are reforms that could take place again as well. But this is something that certainly will not move quickly in a

society as conservative as the one of Saudi Arabia.

SESAY: Yeah, senior international correspondent Fred Pleitgen joining us there from London. Thank you, Fred.

Now, a man presumed to be running for U.S. president is kicking off a trip to Europe right now presumably to beef up his foreign policy


But unlike other Republicans, this one's last name is instantly recognized overseas. And that could complicate matters for him.

CNN's Atika Shubert joins us now from Berlin where Jeb Bush is expected to give a speech in the next hour. Atika, I've got to ask you

today what do we know -- the reception Jeb Bush has received? And what are we expecting to hear from him shortly?

ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORREPSONDENT: Well, as you point out he'll be speaking in about an hour to the economic council of the

Christian Democrats party, that is of course the political party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She will be there, too. But it's not clear

whether or not she's going to meet him even though they'll be there together at the same forum.

Now, what we do expect from his speech is that this is a speech that's going to focus on the U.S.-German relationship, but particularly not only

trade issues, but the crisis in Ukraine. And he is expected to come out tough against Vladimir Putin, saying that there needs to be tougher action

to stop Russian aggression in Eastern Ukraine.

So, that's what we expect to hear. What the reception will be, we'll have to wait and see, but you're absolutely right. Whatever message he

delivers is going to be overshadowed by the fact that he is the brother of former president George Bush, and that is what at the moment he is most

famous for here. If anybody here in Germany knows who Jeb Bush is at all.

SESAY: You make a good point. It's -- I should bring up the question of whether anyone knows him.

I mean, what is your sense -- I don't know if there have been any polls at this stage, but what is your sense of his name recognition there

in Germany?

SHUBERT: There's hardly any name recognition. If you ask anybody, you know, off the street here, they'll recognize the last name. They'll

ask if it's related to President Bush, George Bush, although some people also recognize him as being the son of President George Bush Sr. who of

course has a very different legacy here. He was instrumental in the reunification of Germany, particularly here in Berlin, somebody who is

recognized for that.

But for most people, he is associated as President Bush's brother. And the legacy of the Iraq war.

You know, and he's not the first would-be candidate to come here to try and burnish his foreign policy credentials. President Obama did it

when he was running in 2008. And he did so to rapturous applause here, thousands of people came out to hear him speak at Brandenburg Gate.

On the other hand, other candidates have come through Europe also hoping to get foreign policy points and made instead major gaffes like

former candidate Mitt Romney. He made a number of gaffes as he traveled through the region last time.

And so it can go really either way for candidates. It just depends on how well they're perceived.

SESAY: Yeah, I mean, Atika, as you talk about President Obama, then Senator Obama as he made, you know, the rounds in Europe and we saw the

images. And they were really strong optics. But is it any more than that, really, these trips to Europe? Is it just about the optics? Do they

really have any kind of political significance.

I know what people say, but I'm just wondering about the reality of things.

[11:40:10] SHUBERT: It certainly does have a political significance. It's about showing that you can be the statesman, you can be the leader of

the United States and meet with other leaders. If, for example, he does, even if only briefly, exchange words with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She is the most powerful woman in the world right now, and a very potent political force, the key diplomatic force in dealing with Russia.

So, it does prove that political point.

And it really doesn't matter what the average German citizen thinks. It's about wooing the American citizens at home who will be voting for him,

who will be watching how he conducts himself as he tours not only Germany, but also Poland and Estonia.

SESAY: Great perspective there. Atika Shubert joining us there from Berlin. Thank you, Atika.

Live from CNN Center, this is Connect the World. Coming up, a manhunt underway right now for these convicted killers on the loose. We'll have

more on the prison escape taken straight from the movies.

And the man who organized the 2010 World Cup in South Africa has kept a low profile over the past few weeks. CNN tries to catch up with Danny



SESAY: You're watching CNN. And this is Connect the World. Welcome back.

The controversy rocking FIFA has put South Africa's bid for the 2010 World Cup in the media glare. And the man who organized that bid, Danny

Jordaan, has been keeping a very low profile.

CNN's Diana Magnay tried to catch up with him.


DIANA MAGNAY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: For a man just weeks in the job, the new mayor of Port Elizabeth is keeping a very low profile.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can't do this.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What are you doing? Of course you can.

MAGNAY: But this is a public space. We can ask the mayor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is an office.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, I'm an officer. I'm in the public space.

MAGNAY: That's because the new mayor of Port Elizabeth is Danny Jordaan, president of South Africa's football association and a man who ran

South Africa's bid to host the 2010 World Cup.

Now drawn into the FIFA scandal himself after a letter emerged dated December 2007 where he acknowledges the $10 million sum at the heart of the

FBI investigation and suggests that it be deducted by FIFA from funds earmarked to go to South Africa's local organizing committee.

South Africa's minister of sports has consistently denied any form of bribery as alleged by the U.S. attorney general in its recent indictment.

FIKIFE MBALULA, SOUTH AFRICAN MINISTER OF SPORT: The fact that a payment of 10 million rands, U.S. dollars, was made through an approved

program above board does not equate to bribery.

MAGNAY: But the man who suggested how that payment should be made hasn't shown up to answer questions.

IN the run-up to the World Cup Danny Jordaan loved the limelight. He was, if you will, the face of South Africa's bid, but it's a very different

story now. SAFO (ph) says that it will be the ministry of sport dealing with all issues pertaining to the FIFA affair, because some of the media,

they say, are distorting this issue for their own expediency.

South Africans have had to listen to their fair share of alleged corruption scandals lately, scandals which reach right to the very top.

[11:45:17] UNIDENITIFIED FEMALE: The scandals from the president to everybody, everybody, they have just got their hands dirty.

MAGNAY: But there's also national pride at stake, and the pride of Port Elizabeth locals about their mayor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nothing has been proven yet.

MAGNAY: You think the FBI will come knocking on his door?

UNIDENITIFIED MALE: They're not allowed to come here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. Jordaan, (inaudible) from CNN.

MAGNAY: Knocking on the door of city hall, or just standing outside it, proved problematic for us, pushed back by security as we tried to ask


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. Jordaan, do you have any comment?

MAGNAY: Begging the question why Port Elizabeth's new mayor is being quite so cagey.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What do you have to say about your letter that you wrote?

MAGNAY: Diana Magnay, CNN, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.


SESAY: Well, FIFA officials say the corruption scandal will not cost Qatar the 2022 World Cup. On Monday, FIFA's compliance chief told a Swiss

newspaper if the bidding process was found to have been rigged, Qatar could lose the competition. But soon afterwards FIFA released a statement saying

there's no legal grounds to strip Qatar of the World Cup.

Well, that may not be enough for investors who are pouring billions of dollars into Qatar's future. CNN's Emerging Markets editor John Defterios

if following that for us from Abu Dhabi. John, good to have you with us.

Qatar has enjoyed an extraordinary boom, but how will it be impacted by all the discussion circulating around FIFA?

DEFTERIOS: Well, it's interesting all these mixed messages coming from FIFA 24 hours after the first one is what's keeping Qatar, and in

particular all these investors in infrastructure certainly on edge. No doubt the 2022 buildup is what's been driving growth for Qatar, but a

little bit less than I expected before I dug in to the numbers.

Let's take a look at a bar chart here in looking at the spending plan by Qatar between 2011 and 2016. We're looking at better than $180 billion.

And I'll give you a sense of the build-up of the World Cup, $34 billion was earmarked for 2015 alone.

Now that total of some $180 billion, $16 billion is directly linked to the World Cup 2022 build-up, specifically on transportation, hotels and


But what would be the fallout if indeed Qatar ever had a chance of losing the World Cup games? According both to Standard Charter Bank and to

Merrill Lynch BVA, this suggesting growth of 5.5 percent, or rough that -- around that level for 2015 and 2016. If indeed they'd lost the games, they

said it would knock growth down by a half a percent, 0.5 to 0.6 percent, closer to 5 percent. So not catastrophic.

Now, the big question is what impact all this FIFA discussion has had on Qatar Inc. or the brand. And I spoke to one CEO of a regional ad agency

here. And this is a quote from him. He's saying if Qatar is not careful it will carry the scar of FIFA forever. And it needs to get out of this

wait and see mode and be a little bit more transparent both about how it secured the FIFA bid, but more importantly also about the labor practices

and the construction during this infrastructure boom, Isha.

SESAY: I mean, the Gulf state could afford all this spending due to boom in oil and gas prices. Is that quickly coming to an end?

DEFTERIOS: Not to an end, but it's certainly the climate has changed in the last 12 months. we've talked about the fallen oil prices. And I

covered OPEC of course last week. But it's been a similar story in the natural gas market. And Qatar is the biggest player around. It has 13

percent of the proven reserves, some 50 super tankers circling the world as we speak and primarily going to Asia.

I'll give you a technical unit here, it's $13 for a million BTUs is what the price that Qatar used to get, $13 dollars. The latest contract,

which went to Pakistan in the last year, they're charging $7 for a million BTUs, so a substantial price cut. They're getting competition coming from

Australia, the shale producers in the United States. So the game has changed.

But is Qatar poor? By no measure. It's sovereign wealth, Isha, is $256 billion officially, according to the Sovereign Wealth Institute,

however that's not counting all the wealth of the al Thani family. They've taken stakes in Valentina the designer. They owned the Shard in the UK.

Credit Suisse, Barclay's Bank, Harrods. I can give you a very long list.

So, even if they've got hit because of the World Cup, well, they're not short of capital right now.

And it's an interesting point of Doha. They have a population in the country now around 2.2 million. Because of this infrastructure build on

even linked to the World Cup they hope to nearly double that to 3.8 million by 2030. So, they're trying to go through a boom, although the FIFA

discussion has given them some hard knocks, or shall we say a few black eyes.

SESAY: Yeah, shall we say.

John Defterios joining us there from Abu Dhabi. Thank you so much, John.

Well, the U.S. professor and sports enthusiast says FIFA has the perfect opportunity to refocus the world's attention on football, the

women's World Cup. Amy Bass says the 2014 competition could draw attention away from the corruption scandal and give the women's game some long

overdue attention. You can find her column on

Live from CNN Center, this is Connect the World. Coming up, four days and counting: two escaped prisoners are still on the loose. We'll be live

in upstate New York as the search for the convicted killers continues.


[11:52:15] SESAY: You're watching CNN. And this is Connect the World. Welcome back.

In the United States, a manhunt to find two convicted murderers is now in its fourth day after the men carried out an elaborate escape.

The pair left behind a note with the message, "have a nice day."

Two sources tell CNN a prison employee is being questioned in the case. Let's go live in Dannemora in New York State. CNN's Polo Sandoval

has the latest.

You know, obvious question right now. I mean, first of all the mind boggles how they're able to pull this off. Are the police saying they have

any concrete leads?

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, Isha, at this point we do know at least 300 leads have come in according to authorities.

Investigators saying that they're going to follow on every single one of those. But so far, none of those, according to investigators, haven't been

really strong enough to lead them in any specific direction. We know that one of these inmates was up in the western portion of the state, the other

from southern (inaudible) county.

So again much of the focus is on those two areas. But really it had been already four days since this very extraordinary escape went down just

about 40 kilometers south of Canadian border.

There's heavy concern, major concern they could not even be in the country anymore. So that is what they're looking into.

You did mention a woman that investigators are looking into. CNN sources telling us that they are speaking to her. She has not at this

point -- she's not facing any charges. She has not been arrested. She's only being considered a possible accomplice at this time as they try to

find out if she did provide any form of assistance to David Sweat and Richard Matt.

SESAY: Yeah, we mentioned this female employee. One has to imagine that they are interviewing, though, everyone who worked at that prison and

really asking questions about how this facility was managed.

SANDOVAL: Right. That's another major question here, how are the facilities managed, how often are these head counts conducted?

We know that the last time they had visual contact with these two very dangerous individuals was 10:30 p.m. Friday. They did not discover that

they were missed until 5:30 a.m. Saturday. Clearly that this will beg a closer look at the policies in place. And whilst we're learning more about

the layout. So many unanswered questions at this point, Isha. But the two key questions here to answer where are these two and how on earth were they

able to execute such a really extraordinary plan.

SESAY: How on earth indeed.

Polo Sandoval joining us there from Dannemora in New York State. Thanks so much.

Well, when news broke of the escape of two prisoners in upstate New York, it immediately drew parallels with other escapes, including some that

have made it to the big screen. CNN's Alina Machado takes a look at some other famous prison breaks.


ALINA MACHADO CNN CORRESPONDENT: As the manhunt for Richard Matt and David Sweat intensifies, their elaborate escape from a maximum security

prison in upstate New York is drawing parallels to the fictional hit film Shawshank Redemption in which a convicted killer spends 17 years digging

his way out of prison using a rock hammer.

[11:55:07] MORGAN FREEMAN, ACTOR: Like I said, in prison a man will do most anything to keep his mind occupied.

MACHADO: The main character crawling through prison walls and a waste pipe to escape, much like Matt and Sweat who used power tools to cut

through steel walls.

They also left decoys in their beds to trick guards into thinking they were asleep, so did the prisoners who escaped from Alcatraz in San

Francisco in 1962. John and Clarence Anglin and Frank Morris dug through prison walls and made rafts out of raincoats in a bold escape. Their story

the subject of another movie starring Clint Eastwood.

The escaped convicts' whereabouts still unknown to this day, but in most high profile escapes authorities eventually catch up with the inmates.

In 1984, six death row prisoners took over a housing unit at the Mecklenburg Correctional Center in Virginia before stealing uniforms and

making a daring escape. All were captured within three weeks.

In 2000, it took authorities nearly a month to track down the Texas seven, a group of convicted murderers and violent felons who gunned down a

police officer after making their escape. The reward for their capture reaching $440,000.

Authorities in New York are offering $100,000 reward for information leading to the capture of Matt and Sweat, two convicted killers who

authorities believe may have had help with their escape, much like Renaldo Repalo (ph), a serial rape suspect who broke free from the Miami-Dade

County jail in 2005 using a rope made of bedsheets after crawling through a vent.

Repalo (ph) was captured about a week later. And he wasn't brought back to this facility, he was taken to a different one where he waited for

his trial.

His escape left people in this community on edge, much like those who are in New York right now.

Alina Machado, CNN, Miami.


SESAY: Well, you can always follow the story as the team is working on throughout the day by going to our Facebook page And get in touch on Twitter. You can tweet me @IshaSesayCNN.

I am Isha Sessay. And that was Connect the World. Thank you for watching.