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GOP Slams Iran Deal; Oil Prices Drop as Iran Sanctions Lifted; Israeli PM to Speak Soon; Mexico Drug Lord El Chapo Still on the Run. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired July 14, 2015 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[09:30:00] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Still to come, as we wait for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to speak. You can see, they're getting ready. They're testing the microphones.

I've got to take a break. I'll be back with much more in the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: All right, we're still awaiting Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, to get behind that podium to deliver a statement to the world. But I could tell you that Mr. Netanyahu does not like this deal at all. He's already called it an historic mistake.

OK, so let's go to the other side. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, says he welcomes the Iran nuclear deal, saying with it signed it could, quote -- actually he said, to sign it, the world will heave a sigh of relief. The deal includes an easing of sanctions on Iran, including a U.N. arms embargo, an advantage to Russia, which is eager to sell arms to Iran.

The lifting of the arms embargo, of course, a major bone of contention during the 20 months of negotiations. CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr joins me more with more information on that angle to the story.

[09:35:10] Good morning, Barbara.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

Well, the arms business, multibillion dollar weapons trade that both Iran and Russia are very serious about getting more involved in. So what is the agreement say? Well, they're talk -- they talk -- the agreement talks about lifting the ban on arms trade, conventional arms trade, in five years, ballistic missile components and trade in eight years. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Martin Dempsey, already saying that this has been a red line for him. He's very concerned about these weapons bans being lifted. He's talked about maintaining the need for military option for any president of the United States if it comes to it.

Why is Russia so interested? Russia is already saying it will sell an advanced air defense system to Iran, a system that could protect Iranian air space even from stealth aircraft coming in conducting that potential future military strike. So Russia certainly wants to get those arms deals going with the Iranians.

A lot of concern about Iran's ballistic missile program. This is an ongoing program that Iran has, largely untouched in recent years. They've been working on a program for intercontinental ballistic missiles, long range missiles that could reach out, strike Europe, even potentially some day strike the United States. So you see that all of this arms trade still going on.

Iran still exporting elicit arms to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, a big concern to Israel. We are likely to hear about that from Benjamin Netanyahu. And also Iran has a very elicit arms relationship with North Korea. So under the table here still quite a bit of conventional arms trades going on. Whether this agreement goes into effect or not, a lot of it not likely to be slowed down.

Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Barbara Starr reporting live from the Pentagon this morning. Thank you.

Iran's access to other weapons, just one of several concerns expressed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who also said the deal is similar to declaring war on Israel. His rival for the nomination, Mike Huckabee, saying the plan empowers Iran to carry out threats against the United States and Israel, while Marco Rubio says it undermines U.S. security. Scott Walker calls it, quote, "one of America's worst diplomatic failures." And Rick Santorum, another member of the Republican presidential field, tells CNN this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The Iranians came to -- to the negotiating table, if you will, in a very weakened state and they are going to leave with -- with billions -- hundreds of billions of dollars, the ability to project terror, which they are the chief sponsor of terror. We've legitimized them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Here to talk about this, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst and editorial director for "The National Journal."

Larry, I'd like to start with you because all of the Republicans so far, at least the ones running for president, have talked about this deal in apocalyptic terms. Scott Walker saying it's one of America's worst diplomatic failures. They haven't even read the deal yet.

LARRY SABATO, DIR., CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Carol, they don't have to read the deal. They know what the Republican base already thinks about this and they think they've got a great issue to use in the campaign of 2016. You will see all of the Republican presidential candidates denounce this, most of the them in the kind of strident terms that Senator Lindsay Graham used.

Look, whatever the facts are about this treaty, and it will really take us years to find out how it plays out, in terms of the political race, the lines are very, very clear, the Democrats, the senior Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, who are leading the race, will be very much in favor of it and the Republicans will be strongly against. And this will be debated hotly all the way to Election Day in fall of 2016.

COSTELLO: Well, let's talk about Hillary Clinton, Ron Brownstein, because she hasn't issued a statement just yet and --

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: No.

COSTELLO: You know, the last go-round, when she was running against President Obama in the primary, she wasn't eager for President Obama, or candidate Obama then, to sit down and talk with our enemies, and that would namely be Iran.

BROWNSTEIN: Right. Right. And, you know, look, she -- on foreign policy in her book, I mean she -- you know, where she differed from Obama, she tried to be more tough of hawkish. So it is not inconceivable that she will be somewhat equivocal in her initial reaction. But generally, I agree with Larry, I mean, you know, we -- we are heading toward what might be called a repeal election if you think about the Iranian nuclear deal at the top of the list, but also the diplomatic opening to Cuba, Obamacare, the immigration executive action at home, the international climate agenda. You have Republican nominees who -- candidates who will be running on repealing really across the board a wide swath of President Obama's second term.

[09:40:08] I think the big challenge is going to be, something the president cited, what is the alternative? The president's best asset in this -- in this debate may be not so much the strength of this deal, but the weakness of the alternatives. Is there a plausible alternative that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon for as long a period as this deal (ph), particularly if the rest of the world is willing to accept it, can you plausibly argue that you can maintain crippling sanctions if the U.S. is alone in rejecting. And so -- so while there are going to be many questions about the deal, the questions about the alternatives could also be tough for those criticizing the deal.

COSTELLO: Yes, because I haven't heard really any alternatives, Larry, but I guess sometimes if you're running for president on either side, sometimes you don't need to present an alternative, you just have to talk, you know, real stridently, as you said, against the idea of the other side.

SABATO: Well, for the nominating process, that's true. For the Republican base that will pick one candidate to be the standard bearer in fall of 2016, all it takes is to say, as Governor Scott Walker said yesterday when he announces, on day one I'm going to tear up this deal. Well, in fact, that's not even possible. It would take a lot longer than that. And as Ron just pointed out, China and Russia and France and Germany and Great Britain signed onto this deal and they aren't going to tear up the deal just simply because a president decides to do it for the United States. So the sanctions would no longer work. The long and short of it is, on the campaign trail, simple answers and

slogans almost always work but, more thoughtful voters will, as Ron has said, demand an alternative. What's your alternative? And that's where potentially the Republicans could get into trouble.

COSTELLO: So, Ron, there are thoughtful voters out there who will want that, right? That's my hope and wish and dream.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, sure, I mean -- no, look, I mean the initial polling has been that most Americans say they are willing to accept a deal, but with a great deal of uncertainty. You know, there's an important threshold question here, which I thought the president alluded to in his statement, and the -- some of the Republican response has also alluded to, which is, do you want to make a deal at all with a regime like Iran? I mean the president kind of analogized to the Soviet Union era when we made arms control deals with a government that we, you know, found odious in many, many ways.

You have a line of argument from some of the Republicans essentially saying that unless the Iranian regime changes its fundamental character, we should not make this deal. You heard that in your interview with Lindsey Graham a little earlier. He said, unless they are willing to certify that they are no longer a state sponsor of terrorism, that we should not make any deal that alleviates the sanctions. I mean that really is a core question here, can you make an agreement with a regime that you oppose in many other ways? There is precedent certainly in the Cold War era for doing exactly that, but I think many of the Republicans are going to argue that any deal with Iran is a mistake unless you are willing -- unless the regime is going to change its fundamental character, which is very unlikely to happen, obviously.

COSTELLO: That's true, there are real concerns here and I'm actually kind of glad that they're going to hash it out in Congress and at least talk about it, even in a strident way. I think that's helpful.

Thanks to both of you. Larry Sabato, Ron Brownstein, I appreciate it.

We are expecting the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to talk at any moment now. I'm going to take a break. We'll come back with much more in the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:46:12] COSTELLO: All right, We are still awaiting the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But already he's come out this morning and called this deal with Iran an historic mistake. He said it's an historic mistake for the world that will allow Iran to ignite its terror machine. When Mr. Netanyahu gets behind that podium, of course we'll take him live.

Let's talk about oil prices for a bit now. They're bouncing on the news of a nuclear deal but that's no surprise here. Prices have been steadily tumbling since the talks with Iran began. So what does this mean for you and me at the pump? Chief business correspondent Christine Romans is here to break -- I feel so shallow asking you that, but it is important.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: It is important because this is also part of the economics of what's going on at the negotiating table, right? Iran is a major powerhouse when it comes to energy. The sanctions over the past many, many years have kept Iranian oil off the global market. That has starved the economy. Now that oil will be allowed to go back on the market. And it comes at a time when the world is already producing more than two million barrels a day more than it's consuming. So that means oil prices go low.

So when we talk to experts, what you can expect is oil prices tumbling maybe by the fall into the $40 range. That's from Tom Kloza at GasBuddy and that means gas prices for you back down to maybe $2 a gallon, with a great story coming up on CNN Money this morning kind of outlining what it's going to mean for gas prices. Today, gas prices are $2.78. A year ago they were $3.61. So you can expect Iran coming online with oil -- now it could take some time, Carol. It could take I think maybe three or four years before they're fully up and running. They have a bunch of oil sitting in storage ready to sell legally into the oil market and that will mean more oil at a time when we're already kind of awash in oil in the world.

COSTELLO: So can I throw you a curveball?

ROMANS: Sure.

COSTELLO: Russia, oil, Iran. What does it mean for Russia?

ROMANS: It's so interesting, isn't it? Look, as you drive down the price of oil, it's bad for the oil producers. When you look at the oil producers around the world, the more oil that's out there, the more prices go down, the more it hurts their own budgets and puts more pressure on them. Which is interesting because Russia in many ways has been aligned with Iran on political issues. But Iran as comes on with its oil, the irony is it could drive down prices and that could hurt Russia.

COSTELLO: And maybe that's why Russia wants to sell these arms that it will have the ability to sell to Iran and --

(CROSSTALK)

ROMANS: And China too. They both see a very big market there for Iran for their own very expensive high-tech equipment. So we will see what all that means. It means a different -- again a different set of economics for every player here, but a big, big change, a big change in the geopolitical structure.

COSTELLO: Christine Romans, thanks so much.

ROMANS: You're welcome.

COSTELLO: I'll be right back.

[09:44:05]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: All right. We are still awaiting the press conference to be held by the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He was supposed to speak 20 minutes ago, but obviously he is running late. But he will probably tell the world -- he will probably tell the world that the deal with Iran is a historic mistake which will make the region much more dangerous for Israel. When Mr. Netanyahu takes the podium, of course, we'll take his remarks live.

On to other news for just a bit, a $3.8 million reward to nab the drug lord El Chapo and put him back behind bars. Police releasing this new photo of Joaquin Guzman yesterday. His trademark noticeably missing. Guzman has been on the run since Saturyda night after escaping out of a hole leading to this elaborate mile-long tunnel. That prison now under harsh scrutiny. The facilities director and several officials are out of jobs this morning.

CNN's Polo Sandoval is there. He's following the latest developments. Any new news, Polo?

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Carol, with that search still showing no signs of slowing down, I can tell you the people in these communities and really throughout Mexico now are showing some major signs of frustration and disappointment. Many of them left puzzled and asking exactly how this could happen, how such a key figure in the cartel criminal underworld could potentially -- did break out of the prison you see behind me here, about an hour's drive west of Mexico City.

Clearly this is a country where public corruption has run rampant. And so now as you mentioned there with the arrest -- at least the removal from office of several of the officials here at the prison, plus the questioning of even more employees, that's raising some serious questions exactly how high could that corruption have gone with respect to this El Chapo Guzman case.

Meanwhile, I can tell you this is also raising serious questions on what this will do really across the cartel landscape, the dynamics of the situation.

[09:55:05] You now have a very powerful, ruthless leader of the Sinaloa cartel who now can assume full control of his organization that's based out of the Pacific Coast state of Sinaloa. And so now a lot of people are asking will this potentially throw off the balance or the potential rhythm between some of these rival cartels as well, as so many of them are constantly fighting for these smuggling routes that lead into the United States, Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Polo Sandoval reporting live for us this morning. Thank you so much.

The next hour of NEWSROOM after a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because of this deal, the international community will be able to verify that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon.

[10:00:0] COSTELLO (voice-over): A historic deal. The United States and other world powers reach an agreement with Iran, keeping that country from developing a nuclear weapon for at least ten years.