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Republicans Prepare to Debate. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired September 15, 2015 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:02]

CRAIG HODGETTS, UCLA: And to be able to be a part of this effort is a dream come true.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go.

You're watching CNN live here at the top of the hour in beautiful Simi Valley, California. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Wonderful to be with you here for the special live coverage here from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

Today, new drama, potentially serious new challenge for Donald Trump on the eve of CNN's massive Republican presidential debates. You have new numbers. Look at this with me. A new CBS News/"New York Times" poll finds Donald Trump is holding on to his lead over the GOP field, but he may be hearing footsteps, because retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has climbed within the poll's margin of error. You see there in the upper left Trump with 27 percentage points, Ben Carson with 23 percent, margin of error six points, and the other candidates, still every single one of them in single digits.

I'm joined here in Simi Valley with Gloria Borger, our chief political analyst, and also alongside Michael Smerconish, host of CNN's "SMERCONISH" and "The Michael Smerconish Program" on SiriusXM Radio.

You can feel the juice, you can feel the excitement and anticipation here.

But let's get straight to your news, because we know the campaigns will be doing the walk-through this afternoon. You have been in touch with the Jeb Bush campaign.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. I get the feeling, because they don't want to telegraph too much what they are going to do, because then if their candidate doesn't do it, we will say, oh, he didn't do what he was supposed to do, right?

But it's very clear to me from talking to some senior Bush advisers that he's not going to shy away from taking Trump on, because I think there's a sense that they feel they have to establish the contrast between Jeb Bush's conservatism and his leadership with Donald Trump.

So, I was told that everything that he has said on other stages about Jeb Bush, such as you can't insult your way to the presidency, you're not a real conservative, wouldn't be surprised if we heard that again tomorrow.

BALDWIN: What about, just quickly, with the $24 million on the super PAC from Bush...

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: Right.

BALDWIN: The mention of his wife, Columba, the secret weapon.

BORGER: Right, secret weapon, but it's part of the branding of Bush, because the problem with Bush is a lot of Republican primary voters hear the Bush name and they think moderate. And Jeb Bush is trying to say, uh-uh-uh, I was a very conservative governor of the state of Florida.

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: You know who should be thrilled about that?

BALDWIN: Who?

SMERCONISH: Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.

BALDWIN: Why?

SMERCONISH: Because I believe that if Jeb Bush is successful, as Gloria says that perhaps now he's going to try and land some punches on the Donald, if he really does land a good shot...

BORGER: Or respond to punches given by the Donald.

(CROSSTALK)

SMERCONISH: I don't think his numbers go up. I think Ben Carson's numbers go up. I think Carly Fiorina's numbers go up.

I really believe there are two debates about to play out on that stage, one among the mavericks and one among the establishment candidates and they are jockeying for different constituencies. So, if I were Carly or if I were Ben Carson, I would be elated with what Gloria Borger just had to say.

BORGER: But I think that there's this charge that Trump has landed on both Carson and Jeb Bush, the low energy, can't-do candidate.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Jeb Bush makes him look -- or he says Jeb Bush makes Ben Carson look like the Energizer Bunny.

BORGER: Right.

I think that both Carson and Bush have to show their sort of energy and appeal that way. The Bush people think it's a joke, that Jeb was a very energetic governor of the state of Florida. Right? But I think they do have to project that kind of strength.

BALDWIN: But what about, Michael, the new poll numbers? This is so significant to me when you really see especially within the margin of error in that "New York Times"/CBS poll, that essentially Trump and Carson are tied? Do you think Trump is going to be looking over his shoulder?

SMERCONISH: No more so than at Ben Carson than I think he will the entire field.

Up until that response to Carson questioning his faith, he stayed away from Ben Carson and had gone after everyone else, right. I don't know that he wants to engage with Ben Carson. I think Donald Trump will continue to have a shotgun blast against everybody else on that stage, but I'm not sure he will do it against Carson.

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: We keep saying Carson is a nice guy.

(CROSSTALK)

SMERCONISH: That's a kiss of death, by the way.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I have to get this, just released, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal unleashing an incredibly strong opinion piece here on CNN.com and he really goes after Trump. Let me quote part of it.

He says: "Don't get me wrong. I like the idea of Donald Trump. I love the idea of an outsider who doesn't care about political correctness and who says things you're not supposed to. Unfortunately, Donald Trump is the wrong messenger. Donald Trump is a madman who must be stopped. Failure to speak out" -- this is the key line to me. "Failure to speak out against Trump is an endorsement of Clinton."

So if tomorrow night on that stage, no one punches or counterpunches Donald Trump, would you agree with him that that's saying, go Hillary?

[15:05:10]

SMERCONISH: So, Bobby Jindal is saying in that statement, we all need to join forces and be united against Donald Trump.

If I'm Donald Trump, I'm hoping they all follow that advice, because then I get to say, look at all of them, these losers, right, lining up now in unison against me. It plays into that meme that it's Trump against the world and he loves that.

BORGER: Exactly. He loves that, but don't forget Ben Carson, who has the kind of opposite personality of Donald Trump next to each other -- next to each other.

(CROSSTALK) BORGER: And he's sort of the low-key guy that people are giving a second look to. I don't know. I think that Carson won't do it, but I think some of the others just might.

BALDWIN: Tapper says he wants a debate. We have heard him say that over and over and over again. Perhaps we will really start seeing...

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: I think he's going to get one.

BALDWIN: I think he might get one too.

Where do you think the most fireworks will be? You mentioned initially sort of the mavericks vs., I forget how you phrased it, but who...

SMERCONISH: The establishment types.

BALDWIN: The establishment.

SMERCONISH: I have my personal eye -- and I would be curious to know what Gloria thinks -- on Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump.

I think there's a potential for fireworks there. Not so much on Carson, because I don't think he will take Trump's bait and I don't think he will fire the first shot across the Trump bow. But Carly and Trump, that could be worth it.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Something like look at this face.

(CROSSTALK)

SMERCONISH: She's got to have a line.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: What do you think the fireworks...

BORGER: I think it's going to be Carly Fiorina. I think the other men on the stage will defend Carly Fiorina in that particular fight.

And I think if somebody -- the thing I'm curious about that if Jeb or somebody takes on Trump, will the others join in or will they let Jeb Bush do it -- well, or will they let somebody else do it for them, because they all want those Trump voters, should Trump somehow implode or whatever.

(CROSSTALK)

SMERCONISH: Right, the Ted Cruz strategy.

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: Right. Well, they have been waiting for that, by the way, for quite some time, and it hasn't occurred.

SMERCONISH: That's true.

BALDWIN: OK. We wait. The countdown clock is officially marked on the screen. We're excited. Gloria and Michael, thank you both so much.

BORGER: Sure.

BALDWIN: And, again, just a reminder, 6:00 is the initial debate, 8:00 is the biggie. The first debate broke records, 24 million viewers, and so now CNN host in hosting the sequel, as you very well know.

And I scouted out the stage built just for this occasion and trailers where the candidates will anxiously await the showdown. Here we go behind the scenes.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: Welcome to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library here in beautiful Simi Valley, California, of course home this week to let's just call it the Super Bowl of politics, our big CNN debate.

The work is still under way, but let's just hope the only venom that's spewed this week is on that debate stage.

Here we are inside the pavilion. CNN has built -- actually, scratch that -- is still building the debate stage, 15 semitrucks full of gear, 10 miles of cable, 24 gallons of caffeine to keep this crew going. Let's go to the stage.

We're in the middle of debate prep. You can still hear construction going on. They are still hanging lights, but I just had to show you these are the 11 podiums for all 11 candidates for the prime-time debate. As you can see, Donald Trump polling ahead of the rest, so he is front and center.

Where I'm sitting is actually the front row of the debate, so, so much more intimate that the last arena debate. I'm maybe 10 feet from the candidates. It will be interesting to see how they use the audience to their advantage.

And in this space, just about 500 people will be seated, including, according to the presidential library here, potentially former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

One other really important seat, this one. My friend and colleague Jake Tapper, the moderator of the debate, will be right here tossing tough questions their way.

And speaking of the candidates, I want to show you something outside. This is something you will not see on TV on Wednesday night, all of these trailers. This is where all the different candidates will essentially camp out in the hours before the debate. Every candidate has one. Let's check one out. Inside the trailer, maybe not totally glamorous,

but it will do the trick. What matters is the substance. What matters is the fact that they will be talking to their advisers, what to say, what not to say, how to address the camera, fixing the tie.

Let's see what's in the refrigerator. Aha, Ronald Reagan Presidential Library water. Perhaps that will bring them good luck. I see maybe a stereo system, some last-minute tunes to get them ready to go, and really everything all culminates on this stage Wednesday night.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[15:10:13]

BALDWIN: Let me say it again, Wednesday night, the first round of candidates, you have Pataki, Santorum, Jindal and Graham. That will begin at 6:00 Eastern time, and then followed by the main event at 8:00 Eastern, all 11 on the stage. Watch for fireworks here on CNN.

Much more ahead here from Simi Valley, California, including, as we were just discussing, Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARLY FIORINA (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Barbara Boxer has been there for 28 long years, and though she may say many things tonight, her track record, her long track record in Washington, D.C., is consistent and clear. And the results of her policies are devastating for this state.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:15:16]

BALDWIN: Welcome back. We're live here in Simi Valley, California. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

And this is CNN's special coverage ahead of the big debate tomorrow night.

Let's begin with one woman, the only woman who will be on stage, Carly Fiorina. Her poll numbers may have faded since her impressive first debate showing, but will this debate number two reignite her campaign?

Joining me now, Pilar Marrero, a senior political writer at La Opinion.

Pilar, thank you so much for joining me today.

You are the person to talk to, because you were also a panelist at the debate back in 2010 before Fiorina lost her Senate bid to Barbara Boxer here in California. Here you were asking direct questions to the now -- she will be a now presidential candidate. What do you think her biggest strength and biggest weakness is on stage? PILAR MARRERO, LA OPINION: She's very articulate.

I think she knows how to respond to questions and how to be direct. And she being -- at that debate, I remember, being two women on stage, Boxer and her, was a very interesting moment.

In this case, she's the only woman, so she will have that advantage, in my opinion. Also, there's a disadvantage to that, because there's other candidates in that stage that really don't like women that much. And they will do anything they can to disparage her.

BALDWIN: What about, though, back five years ago when you were sitting on the panel on the 2010 debate. What was her biggest weakness?

MARRERO: I think the biggest weakness was just the demographic issue here in California.

You have a blue state, a state that turned blue so many years ago, after Pete Wilson came out with these anti-immigrant messages and essentially Democrats have an advantage. And, also, Mrs. Fiorina had these sort of positions on immigration that were completely not to the liking of the Latino population.

I think that was a big disadvantage for her in her Senate campaign.

BALDWIN: OK, OK. So, like I said, that was five years ago. Here we are. I want to play a little sound from that last debate and Carly Fiorina acknowledging why Trump is resonating, but also taking a stab at his lack of substance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FIORINA: the political class has failed you. That's just a fact, and that's what Donald Trump taps into.

I would also just say this. Since he has changed his mind on amnesty, on health care and on abortion, I would just ask, what are the principles by which he will govern?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: How do you think, Pilar, she will respond to Trump or any kind of attack tomorrow night?

MARRERO: Well, she's already done it.

Recently, when Trump made comments about her face and what kind of face she has, she responded very appropriately. She didn't go overboard. She just said, this is the face of a woman, a woman that is proud to be 61 years old. And it's the face of a future president of the United States. That's what she said.

I think it was a good response. It was sort of an educated response to a not very educated attack from Donald Trump to women in general and to her in particular. BALDWIN: Waiting of course for some sort of face line, but how she

will counterpunch if we hear one of his talking points about being a failed CEO, a failed businesswoman and hear how she will respond to that.

Pilar Marrero, we will see you here in Simi Valley, California, tomorrow.

Coming up here from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, when candidates collide on stage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R-NJ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When you're sitting in a subcommittee, just blowing hot air about this, you can say things like that.

SEN. RAND PAUL (R-KY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't trust President Obama with our records. I know you gave him a big hug, and if you want to give him a big hug again, go right ahead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: We will look at the tale of the tape. Which key matchups will emerge during tomorrow night's debate? Keep it here on CNN's special debate coverage live from the Ronald Reagan Library here in California when we return.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:23:40]

BALDWIN: The debate stage here at the Reagan Presidential Library is set. The podiums are all lined up, all 11 of them, almost a straight line, maybe a curve to it, but you know what? They might as well be in a ring, because we expect these candidates really to go head to head tomorrow night on the issues mostly.

Pressure is ratcheting up, as poll after poll shows Donald Trump and now Ben Carson really pulling ahead of the pack.

I'm here with CNN political commentator Jeffrey Lord. He's the former Reagan White House political director. So he understands how special this place is. And also CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, who will be on the stage tomorrow night.

Oh, boy, oh, boy. Great to see both of you.

(CROSSTALK)

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Brooke.

BALDWIN: To you first, since you have been covering so many of these campaigns so closely. What do you think has really stood out to you since the last big debate? BASH: Well, the last debate, it wasn't entirely clear that Donald

Trump had staying power. Of course he was the front-runner at the time, but it was still -- everyone was still trying to catch their breath about that phenomenon.

Now there's no question about it. Right?

JEFFREY LORD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Right. Right.

BASH: He's doing well, and not just in the overall, not just in the national polls, not just in the states, but if you kind of tuck under the numbers that really matter, with women, with people who are...

BALDWIN: Evangelicals.

BASH: With evangelicals, with people who -- it's early. They can always change their mind, but at least at this point are saying that they like him and they're going to stick with him.

[15:25:03]

Those are dynamics that the other candidates cannot look away from right now.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: They do it at their peril.

BALDWIN: Ben Carson nipping at his heels when you look at that CBS/"New York Times" poll.

BASH: Exactly.

BALDWIN: Who do you think, Jeffrey Lord? Who are you watching for if you had to pick two people, a good matchup, a good fireworks session?

LORD: I think the first thing is the outsiders, the outsiders with the outsiders, Trump, Carson and Fiorina.

And then trailing behind is perhaps Trump vs. somebody like John Kasich to see -- because Jeb Bush, in truth, seems to be sinking so fast. He has got money in the bank.

BALDWIN: And $24 million.

(CROSSTALK)

LORD: Right. But I'm not sure that's the kind of money -- I remember -- I hate to admit this -- from 1980 John Connally, who was the most well-funded candidate at the time and he wound up with one delegate from Arkansas, nice lady from Arkansas. It just didn't do him any good.

I think you have got a problem, you have got a problem.

BASH: I think he brings up such a good point, which is we have kind of been saying it over and over, but we're actually going to see it, is the real differences between Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, those who have never been in elected office, and everybody else, because they are really pitching their abilities based on their experience outside of government, outside of Washington.

BALDWIN: They are. They are.

BASH: And that really seems to be catching hold, whereas you have the others, whether they are governors or whether they are senators, trying to make the case that their experience within government is the best kind of experience.

And so far, that has not really resonated that much. And it's going to be interesting to see how, for example, a Jeb Bush or even a Mike Huckabee, people with real records as governors, how they try to break through and try to convince conservative voters that that matters.

BALDWIN: Talking to someone though from the Ben Carson camp last hour. And to quote my executive producer, in looking at how much they have done strategy wise, it almost seems like they are politicians in doctor's clothes.

They have really stepped it up recently.

LORD: Right.

BALDWIN: Do you think, though -- tomorrow night is huge and millions of people, no pressure, will be watching. Do you think that these campaigns going into tomorrow night think this is it, this is make or break, or is it really about the ground game, getting at the states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina?

BASH: It's all of the above. Of course these debates matter. But I have been talking to campaigns who have been kind of reminding me quietly, look, this all is important, but it's also very, very important to have smart, experienced people in places like Iowa, who know how to caucus, which is kind of an animal in and of itself.

LORD: Yes.

BASH: And so they have been working extremely hard, a lot of these campaigns, to get those people. Some of them, even some of those who have kind of not front-runner status, but are doing better in the polls, don't necessarily have that.

There's a very important thing we do have to look for on that topic, which is there's a difference between doing well when it comes to calling somebody on the phone and saying who do you support and actually getting those people to the caucuses and to the polls.

BALDWIN: You're nodding.

LORD: And some of that, some of that is going to be affected by how much money they have.

BASH: Exactly. LORD: Jeb Bush may have some money, but some of the others, if they

are not doing very well here, like Rick Perry, they might have some great organizational people, but if they don't have the money to fund it, pretty soon, it runs out of gas.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I have to ask, though, when you talk about we're almost a little more than 24 hours out, and all of the candidates, they are like underground today, I'm sure doing all the final debate prep. But then you have Donald Trump. He was out in Dallas.

(LAUGHTER)

LORD: Right.

BALDWIN: We laugh, but it's true, Jeffrey Lord. He was out in Dallas last night. He's out on a battleship here in L.A. tonight talking to veterans.

How do you see this? I was talking behind the scenes to our political director, David Chalian, and he was, like, Brooke, he's basically -- it's a live dress rehearsal, running lines, seeing how they sit with people. Is that how you see this?

LORD: Right. Right. Right.

He is pretending to be president, as it were, which is what all these people have to do. It just he seems to be really good at this and getting better at it.

BALDWIN: Until the 11th hour.

LORD: Yes.

And I would add he's going to be on the Battleship Iowa, is my understanding. Ronald Reagan famously stood on that ship in the harbor of New York on the centennial observation of the Statue of Liberty in 1986. It has an association with Ronald Reagan. And then he comes here.

BALDWIN: You think he's going to drop the Reagan name tonight?

LORD: I imagine.

BALDWIN: Do you think he should?

LORD: I think he should, absolutely. He has dropped it.

BASH: I think the better question is, who isn't going to drop the Reagan name?

BALDWIN: Who isn't?

The 12th man on the stage, I keep saying, Ronald Reagan, tomorrow night. Finally to you, you're on the big stage. Here's Jake Tapper, here's Dana Bash.

BASH: With Hugh Hewitt.

BALDWIN: With Hugh Hewitt. Yes, of course.

What are you thinking, what are you going through into tomorrow, final question? How are you feeling?

BASH: I feel good.

Look, this is -- look, for me, I love politics. I'm obsessed with the process and the actual debate of ideas. And that's our goal, to actually get them to debate the ideas that the Republican voters care about. I know it sounds corny.

BALDWIN: An actual -- have an actual debate happen?

BASH: I mean...

BALDWIN: Actual issues?

(LAUGHTER)

BALDWIN: Bring it, Dana Bash.