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Legal View with Ashleigh Banfield

Make-or-Break for GOP; Establishment versus Outsider Candidates; CNN Debate Behind the Scenes. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired September 15, 2015 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:17] ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, everybody, I'm Ashleigh Banfield. Welcome to LEGAL VIEW. It's great to have you with us.

Just one day before the great Republican showdown in Simi Valley, more proof that two of the 15 candidates stand apart from the rest, and only one of those is named Trump. Check out the CBS News/"New York Times" poll of Republican voters all across the country, this is a new poll, folks, but it seems to be a repeated story, Donald Trump is in his accustomed position at the head of the pack. But now he's only four points ahead of Dr. Ben Carson. And this poll has a 6-point margin of error, meaning the soft-spoken surgeon and the blustering billionaire are in a tie.

Even more remarkable is the contrast from early August, less than two months ago. Dr. Carson almost quadrupled his standing from six points then to 23 now. Note also the fall of Jeb Bush. He has now less than a half of the support that he had back then. But all of this, of course, could change tomorrow. In two debates that you'll see right here only on CNN, from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

And if you don't believe that this really is anybody's race, let me show you one more finding from the CBS/"New York Times" poll, fewer than 4 Republican voters in 10 who already - or say that they've already have the favorite candidate, they've totally made up their minds. Have you made up your mind? Just 37 percent. But more than six in 10 say it is just far too early to lock in that choice. That means it's still open, folks.

I want to bring in CNN political director David Chalian and national political reporter Maeve Reston. They're live in Simi Valley at the site of the debate.

And, David, if I could start with you. I just want you to walk me through the significance of these most recent polls that came out this morning, especially as it relates to Dr. Carson versus Trump.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, that's right, Ashleigh. I mean clearly Dr. Carson is surging here to a solid second place position. And you know what he's doing? He is providing conservatives an alternative to Trump in that non-establishment wing. So - so if you are sort of railing against the establishment, if you do not like politicians as usual, you may be attracted to Donald Trump. But if his style is not your cup of tea, there is somebody else in Dr. Ben Carson who portrays himself entirely differently on the trail where those conservatives can park themselves. And I think that Ben Carson is now sort of consolidating himself as the non-Trump alternative in that wing of the contest.

BANFIELD: So, Maeve, jump in here because as I look at the significance for every one of these people as they head towards tomorrow night, this really is survival. I mean if you're not going to make any kind of splash tomorrow night, you could be done, you could be gone, you could have your next Rick Perry moment.

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Right. Right.

BANFIELD: Is that what they're thinking?

RESTON: Well, I think they are. I mean you think about the number of candidates that we have in this field, it's just enormous. I mean it is so difficult to get attention, particularly with someone like Donald Trump in the race. And the only person who you have seen actually able to do that has been Ben Carson, who was out here in California last week, was talking to a lot of voters at this rally about how they do want the anti-Trump, they love that he's bringing sort of a quieter, more thoughtful approach to the campaign, and they say anyone but Trump. So it's been really fascinating to watch that play out.

For the rest of the candidates, I mean they're getting to the category of almost becoming also Rand (ph). You know you have Walker practically falling off the stage at 2 percent. Someone who was originally thought to be the leader. And the pressure is really on Jeb Bush tomorrow night to show he can bring it against Donald Trump.

BANFIELD: OK. So let's talk about him. I want to just put up a quick graphic if I can. Once we now have looked at these numbers and we've seen how - I know Donald Trump doesn't like to call it a surge, but that's what it is when you - when you jump ahead a lot. He's upset that the media hasn't been calling his success story a surge. It's been pretty steady and growing, but it hasn't surged like Dr. Carson's.

So, David, talk to me a little bit about these vulnerabilities that Donald Trump has and what's at stake for him tomorrow night. He certainly isn't so hot with the facts. He does struggles a lot with the fact and he does have a tendency to offend women and other key group. It hasn't seemed to bother him lately. And his conservative credentials have been questioned. Is this old news or can you really go after those issues on the stage tomorrow?

CHALIAN: Oh, I'm sure we'll see some of his competitors, Ashleigh, try to sort of stake out a position where they think they have a more true conservative position than Donald Trump does and they'll try to draw -

[12:05:08] BANFIELD: Oh, we've just lost our signal, unfortunately, from Simi Valley. You know what, here's what's going to happen, we're going to fix it because that is the most important site in CNN's week, the Simi Valley live shot.

We got you back and I'm glad you're laughing for it too. So we just lost you right at the start. Go ahead, David, finish your thought. CHALIAN: Oh, sorry. No, I was just saying, Ashleigh, that you're absolutely right, that there will be conservatives competitors on the stage who will really try to post up against Trump on policy. Try to convince conservative voters that he's not a true conservative and they have the far more conservative policy position.

However, I don't think we're going to be surprised by Donald Trump. I think he's actually holding his debate prep in public. What we saw in the rally last night in Texas, what we will see tonight in his national security speech here in California, he's sort of working out his best lines that he will walk into the debate with on Wednesday night.

CAMEROTA: All right. Maeve, I want to put up some interesting nuggets when it comes to Ben Carson, who has had a surge. I don't care what Donald Trump says, it is officially a surge. He is soft-spoken, he has a real under-rated style, he has certainly built that loyal following, he is widely viewed as too quietly, which, you know, has allowed Trump to come in and attack what his energy level is, which he's also done towards Jeb Bush. But Dr. Carson says he doesn't want to get into a gladiator fight with Trump. These things seem to be working for Ben Carson, Maeve -

RESTON: Absolutely.

BANFIELD: But will they work when he is on stage next to all of them.

RESTON: Well, I mean, I think they have to some extent. You know, Ben Carson actually did get some great lines out of the last debate. His performance was one of the more memorable ones. And, you know, I mean what's interesting is, is that he has such a dramatic contrast to Trump that there are all of those people out there that are saying, I'm not sure if I can imagine Donald Trump in the Oval Office, really are looking to Ben Carson as that outsider alternative. Those same voters are also very interested in Carly Fiorina, obviously, and she will be talking her place on the big stage here in Simi Valley tomorrow night. I'm sure that she's got plenty of zingers lined up for Donald Trump., She is excellent at that kind of campaigning. And we really should expect to see her bring it tomorrow night.

BANFIELD: All right, I'm going to leave that there, but I do have a lot more to go over with regard to the strategies and what those candidates are doing right now in preparation for a lot of eyeballs tomorrow night on them. Maeve Reston, David Chalian, thank you for that.

Don't go too far, because we have a lot more to talk about.

CHALIAN: Thanks, Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: The Republican debate, of course, airing on CNN tomorrow night. We will have all of those bugaboos fixed. Trust me, there will be no live shot coming down. 6:00 p.m., 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Stick with CNN for the latest on the race for the White House.

The two candidates, not just one, now up into the double digits in those polls. Two candidates with almost nothing in common except for one little thing, and it's making a huge difference. Find out next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:11:43] BANFIELD: Aside from the fact they are co-favorites, at least for now anyway in the GOP presidential contest, Donald Trump and Ben Carson may have only one thing in common, in a large field, dominated by senators and governors and former senators and governors, Mr. Trump and Dr. Carson are relative neophytes. Neither has ever held any public office. And the same goes for Carly Fiorina, though she did make a serious run for the Senate back in 2010. So does this explain their appeal and the single-digit purgatory to which the experienced politicians all seem to be confined?

I want to ask my serious commentators, Democratic strategist Donna Brazile. She is live with me this hour from Washington. And here with me in New York, conservative columnist for theblaze.com, Tara Setmayer.

All right, you two. So, Tara, I'm going to begin with you, if I can. It seems a little weird. Usually you can tout all the things you've done, all the people you've lead. In fact, they made it an industry to go after Barack Obama for not having experience in the last two rounds. And now it seems the top two contenders are using it to their advantage. Am I crazy?

TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: No. It's a - It's a fascinating dynamic. My how things change in eight years. You know, I think what's happening, it's more about the fact that the Republican primary voters are so upset with the establishment in Washington because they voted them in expecting certain results, which they did not get, and the establishment has rolled over on a lot of serious issues. They haven't lived up to the promises that got them back into the majority. And also the disappointment with Mitt Romney as a weak candidate against Obama in 2012. I think the - the Republican primary voters are just - they've just had it. Enough is enough with these establishment guys who aren't going to do what they say anyway and so let's go for something different. And you can't get any more different than Donald Trump. This is something that's fascinating.

BANFIELD: You've got that right.

SETMAYER: I mean it's fascinating, especially to the political class and those of us inside the beltway who've never seen anything like this before. And then you have Dr. Ben Carson who's coming in, who is an outsider, but if you don't like Donald Trump's methods and his presentation, you've got the polar opposite in Ben Carson. So I think right now you're looking at an emotional protest vote going on right now.

BANFIELD: But it seems to be uniquely - it seems to be uniquely Republican. Let me just put up a "Washington Post" poll that talks about how much people want experience in their choice for president. And among the Democrats, 73 percent want experience. Among the Republicans, just 36 percent want experience. So, Donna Brazile, what's going on there? Because you would think that the disenchantment among the electorate out there is equal opportunity offending. I mean they don't like The Hill. They don't like the White House. They don't like what's going on in D.C. But why this difference between Republicans and Democrats?

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, first of all, Democrats want somebody with a driver's license who know where to go, they understand the road ahead, they've seen all of the detours, they - we - they've been able to see how far we've been able to come over the last six and a half, seven years. So I'm - I'm sure that is what's driving Democratic voters.

But I want to say something to Tara's point, because as you know, I've been playing in this Republican primary game, too, that's why I'm wearing red today. I'm excited about this next debate.

[12:15:04] And, you know, they're on a shopping spree. They're not depressed. They're not mournful. They're not angry. They're on a shopping spree. They're looking for a shinny, new object. And Donald Trump gives them everything that they need in a candidate right now. He lifts them up. He insults the people that they dislike. He praises the people they like. And when he's all said and done, he talks about himself, and he wants everybody to like him.

So I - I'm enjoying the Republican processes. I know on the Democratic side we're expecting a great debate next month (ph) in Las Vegas. I'm hoping that I can, you know, get my blue back on pretty soon when the Democratic time is up, but right now it is just fun.

BANFIELD: Hey, you can't say anything. You can't say these things. I am wearing red. You can't make the reference to the color of the people on television, what they're wearing, Donna Brazile.

BRAZILE: Yes, I'm wearing red. This is red.

BANFIELD: All right, Tara -

BRAZILE: Well -

BANFIELD: I want to put up a poll. We've been talking a lot about the recent polls. I want to go back a little bit in time, only back to June, just a couple of months, and take a look what the CNN/ORC poll said about Bush's numbers. He was running at 19 percent, well ahead of Trump at 12 percent. And while we're talking about the establishment versus the outsiders, what else can you attribute such a drastic fall to because it isn't like back in June they weren't outsiders or establishment. Like this -

SETMAYER: Right.

BANFIELD: This all can't be, you know, three months' worth of blame- worthy establisher - establishment behavior.

SETMAYER: Sure.

BANFIELD: Well, I think - I think Jeb Bush is experiencing a similar decline the way Hillary Clinton is. I don't know. Donna maybe be wearing blue because of the blues that Hillary Clinton's going through with her dramatic slide in the polls and even with women. She's in big trouble. But with George - and she's establishment. And it's the same thing on the Democratic side. I mean Bernie Sanders, even though he's been in the Senate for 30-plus years, he's considered an outsider because he doesn't really play the game. He's talking - he wants to hear - he's talking the good game that the left wants to hear as from an outsider perspective versus same thing on our side coming from legit outsiders that aren't in public office.

BANFIELD: OK.

SETMAYER: So it's an interesting dynamic. But for George -

BANFIELD: There -

SETMAYER: For Jeb Bush, Jeb has - he has been out of politics for a long time. He's been very rusty. And he - the bar was set so high for him that he didn't have much room for error and he's made a lot of them thus far. And the more people see him, the more unimpressed they are with him. He's just - he's just part of the same problem -

BRAZILE: Oh, Tara.

BANFIELD: Well, hold on, hold on.

(CROSS TALK)

BRAZILE: Donald Trump - Donald Trump has zinger (ph) -

BANFIELD: He has a lot of money -

SETMAYER: Then he'd have a lot of numbers.

BANFIELD: You make it that Trump has a lot of money and - and, you know, will have a lot of money.

BRAZILE: Tara, that -

SETMAYER: From the donor class.

BRAZILE: That zinger.

BANFIELD: Hold on for a minute.

BRAZILE: Yes.

BANFIELD: I want to show you something that's just come out because I think our viewers are going to start seeing it on their television sets a lot and that is Jeb Bush, a super PAC of his, has just dropped the mic with $24 million of advertising against -

BRAZILE: Wow.

BANFIELD: Yes, that's lot of money, $24 million, just in New Hampshire and Iowa against Trump. I want to just play a little bit of that. Take a peak.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As governor, he helped created 1.3 million new jobs, he vetoed billions in government spending, he cut taxes $19 billion, balanced eight budgets and shrank state government. He took on unions and won with new accountability and over 200 new charter schools. The state was Florida. The governor was Jeb Bush, proven conservative, real results. Jeb. Right to Rise USA is responsible for the content of this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: So I mischaracterized that. I was under the impression this was anti-Trump. That's not anti-Trump at all. That's just pro-Jeb.

BRAZILE: That is - that is Jeb.

BANFIELD: Donna, does that give you a hint as to what his attack is going to be tomorrow night when he gets on stage.

BRAZILE: Yes. I mean he's introducing himself. He's introducing himself.

SETMAYER: He should have done that months ago.

BRAZILE: His last name is Bush. Everybody knows him. He's trying to reintroduce himself. Look, I think Jeb Bush has to basically show Republicans that he's the fighter, he's the champion, he's the one that knows how to, you know, get things done. I don't think that ad will do the trick. I mean $24 million. Tara, you and I are in the wrong business. We should be owning some TV stations right now. But, you know, that exclamation -

SETMAYER: You would have got a lot of money too.

BRAZILE: Yes, that exclamation point behind his name, Jeb, he needs to figure out how to, you know, jump it up a little bit. You know, get the battery - get - get a - get a charge.

BANFIELD: I've got to wrap it there.

SETMAYER: Listen, but he's been around a long time.

BANFIELD: Guys.

SETMAYER: He should know already. The fact that they haven't done it thus far shows that it's a flaw in his candidacy.

BANFIELD: Got to wrap it there.

SETMAYER: And he's got to show - do better this time around.

BRAZILE: $24 million.

SETMAYER: He's got almost $100 million too.

BANFIELD: You know what, you can't - you cannot run a TV station because the first rule of TV is when the anchor says got to wrap it there, we've got to wrap it there.

BRAZILE: Hillary is going to wipe the sails off those boats, honey.

BANFIELD: Tara Setmayer and Donna Brazile, I know this is a lot of fun. You're got to have a lot more chances to talk this through.

BRAZILE: Bye, Tara.

BANFIELD: All right, bye, ladies. Thanks so much.

Coming up next, turning a quiet presidential library into a big raucous, loud debate stage. We're going to give you a front row seat and we're going to take you right up on to this stage and then we're going to show you the view that these candidates will have as they shake in their boots getting ready to go.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:23:30] BANFIELD: Less than 30 hours to go before the first group of Republican contenders face off on CNN. This debate could reset the 2016 race. The stage is set at the Reagan Library, that's the site of tomorrow night's big event. CNN's Athena Jones is live there in Simi Valley, California, right now.

So, Athena, take me on a bit of a tour and sort of give me the background behind the scenes, and the front of the scenes, and all of the scenes that we're going to see tomorrow night.

ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Ashleigh.

Well, take a look here at what the audience will look like. You're looking at about fewer than 500 seats are going to be in the audience for this big debate tomorrow night. You can see teams here that have been preparing. They're doing rehearsals all day. But it's a rather intimate setting here. These are people who were invited by the Reagan Library itself, also by the Republican National Committee, and then a few of the folks in the crowd are folks that will be invitees of the campaign, but it's a much more intimate setting than we saw in that first debate, which was in an arena where they play basketball. So thousands of people versus a few hundred. It could affect how the candidates interact with each other.

But let me show you here the podiums that are now set up. You can see the candidates are only going to be a few inches from each other. It's less than two feet. They'll be standing shoulder to shoulder. Donald Trump, of course, center stage because he is at the top of the polls. He will be flanked by Ben Carson and Jeb Bush.

And then over here, right behind here, that is the backdrop, the interesting backdrop that we have. It's spectacular, really. It's the Air Force One that President Ronald Reagan flew on. And now CNN has built this entire stage. This does not usually exist. They have spent weeks building this stage - it's three stories high - in order to allow that airplane to be the backdrop. And it's really symbolic. You hear Republican candidates all the time talking about Ronald Reagan. He's an icon of the party. And so it's only fitting to have his plane be the backdrop tomorrow night, Ashleigh.

[12:25:24] BANFIELD: Just real quickly, has anyone arrived yet and do they get a chance to go up and do any rehearsals or just sort of get their sea legs going?

JONES: Well, the candidates are arriving tomorrow, but we know, for instance, that Donald Trump is one of the only one we know that is not hunkering down and studying. He had a big rally last night. Tonight he has a speech on national security to veterans. He said that his whole life has been preparation for a debate.

On the other side, you have candidates like Jeb Bush, who really has to have a good showing here. I'm told that he's going to be trying to point out his proven, conservative record, deliver a hopeful, optimistic message and show he has a plan to reform what he calls a broken Washington, and try to draw a contrast between himself and Donald Trump. But we'll all be watching tomorrow night as these guys and the woman, Carly Fiorina, who is the addition, the new addition to the prime time debate, as they battle it out.

Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: I love the setting where you are. It's really terrific. That Air Force One is just majestic in the backdrop. Thank you, Athena, appreciate that.

JONES: Thanks.

BANFIELD: Coming up next, are the candidates nervous as the hours tick down to the big debate. You just heard Athena talking about Donald Trump saying his whole life has been gearing up for a debate, but who's going to be all night studying? Who's just going to show up and winging it? And, by the way, when they study, who are all those helpers that prep them for what's going to happen in that majestic library?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)