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Legal View with Ashleigh Banfield

Republican Debate Prep; Foreign Policy Political Debate; Jeb Bush Performance. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired September 16, 2015 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:00:19] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAKE TAPPER, ANCHOR, CNN'S "THE LEAD": Some people are going to have a good night and some people are not going to have a good night.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In the end, this is not a game show. It is, in fact, deciding the most important political office in the world.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Donald Trump is going to be the guy to take down.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I make good deals. It's a talent. I'm fighting some very nice people. They don't have it. Believe me, they don't have it.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: he has to defend his record and he has to propose things and he has to be serious about it.

SEN. RAND PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's a fake conservative and there's nothing conservative about Donald Trump.

BEN CARSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I hope that we will focus more on the issues.

CARLY FIORINA (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: With all due respect to pollsters and media people, neither one of them decide elections. Voters do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everybody. I'm Ashleigh Banfield, and welcome to the center of the political universe, at least for the next couple of hours. Anyway, this hour, on CNN, 15 Republican candidates for president are going to start showing up at the scene on the right-hand side of your screen, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. They'll be taking brief tours of that massive stage right there. They were - they're going to share with a back-to- back CNN debates beginning in just a few hour. And for some of them, this stage could be their springboard. For others, this stage could be their last stand.

Here's a reminder of where things stand at this moment. The latest nationwide polls from CBS News and "The New York Times" puts the gap between Donald Trump and Ben Carson well within the that 6 point margin of error. So, bottom line is, it means those two are in a dead heat. A much bigger gap, however, starts to appear when Republican voters are asked which candidate they think has the best chance of winning the general election, which isn't even until 14 months from now. There is where Donald Trump outpolls Ben Carson by more than two to one.

But Carson was given just a 1 percent chance before the first Republican debates back in August, and my has the time changed the picture. Jeb Bush's chances in this poll have sunk by more than half. If Trump is the GOP nominee, maybe these numbers might be most poignant, 35 percent of the Republican voters say they will support him, and not just a little, enthusiastically. An equal number say they'll back him with reservations. Fifteen percent, however, say he will not get their vote, even if he's their leader.

We also have new numbers from the state that holds the first primaries. Trump and Carson are neck and neck among Republicans in New Hampshire. And take a look who's number three, Carly Fiorina coming in at 11 percent. Bush polling in fourth right there at 9 percent.

So I want to get back to the action and the showdown in Simi Valley. That's where we find our Athena Jones, who's been standing by live.

So the arrivals of all of these candidates are literally imminent, within minute. Has anybody started to show up? Have you seen a sign yet?

ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Ashleigh.

No, we will be outside as the candidates begin to arrive at the bottom of the hour. They'll come into this debate hall. They'll do a walk- through. That means they'll come and check out where their podiums are. They'll get a sense of the size of the room. They'll get a sense of where the moderators and the questions - who are asking the questions will be sitting.

But let me show you around this stage a little bit. Check this out. This is Air Force One. This is the Air Force One that President Ronald Reagan flew in. This is going to serve as the backdrop for this debate tonight. And it's exactly what CNN wanted. They spent - crews here have spent about three weeks or more, several weeks, building this stage. This stage does not unusually exist. We are on the third floor. And that is so that they could have these candidates appearing right in front of that airplane.

Now, take a look at the podiums. They are laid out here, as you can see. Donald Trump will be in the middle. He'll be at center stage. That's because he is number one in the polls. He's flanked by Dr. Ben Carson and by Jeb Bush.

Take a look on this other side, you'll see the rest of - of the room. It's a pretty intimate setting here. No more than 500 people will be in the audience tonight. They've been invited by the Reagan Library, by the Republican National Committee, and a few of them being invited by the campaigns.

You can see everyone still getting ready here, and figuring out where folks are going to be sitting. But a much more intimate setting that could affect how the candidates interact with one another and also at how they - they deliver their own messages. In the last debate, which was in a - in a stadium where basketball is played, there were thousands of people. You could hear the oohing and the ahhing when some candidates said thing. You won't have that same effect in a room like this.

But 13 cameras. Very, very close together, the candidates will be, close to each other and close to the audience, so that could certainly affect how things go tonight, Ashleigh.

[12:05:12] BANFIELD: I think what you're trying to say is that they're within elbow jabs - literally within elbow jabs of one other, Athena.

JONES: Exactly.

BANFIELD: I saw it. It's hard to tell from the shot we're looking at of you right now, but they really could take each other out. Athena Jones, thank you for that. We're going to come back to you for those live arrivals just as soon as they begin.

We thought it might be interesting as well to see a 15 candidate free for all. We do have some rules, though, for tonight's event, because you've just got to. The candidates are going to get one minute to answer the questions from our panel, and then 30 seconds to respond to the other candidates who talk about them. They will not be allowed to speak out of turn. You know what that means, right, that they probably will anyway, so that's going to be a tough job for Jake Tapper. They're also each going to have one note pad, one pen, one glass of water, and that's it. They may not have their cell phones. They may not have tablets. And they cannot bring any notes into the hall with them.

And if you'll remember, the basketball arena where the first debates took place, yes, this isn't that. Not at all. This is real pretty, folks. This is a converted airplane hangar at the Reagan Library. It holds just 500 seats. And they are filled by guest, invited guests. People who were invited by the Republican National Committee, people who were invited by the Reagan Library staff, and then also the individual campaigns were allowed to invite some people as well. So that's it. It's not a big beer-drinking group for sure.

So how will this format and this stagecraft and this venue, how will it affect the candidates, how they say what they're going to say and what they decide to say? A couple of people who have a lot of insight. My panel, Scott McClellan is the former White House press secretary to President George Bush, Bush 43. Dan Pfeiffer is the former communications director for President Obama. And Amanda Carpenter is an author and former communications director for Senator Ted Cruz. So we have some real smarts on the screen right now.

I want to start with you, if I can, Scott. You've taken some time and had to stand at a podium as press secretary for minute after minute after minute, stretching into hour, and I want to know what the length of this debate at two hours and 45 minutes mean. I mean think about this for a minute, two hours and 45 minutes of being under the lights, of being in the pressure and of being next to people who are probably taking potshots at you in some way. How will that affect how these people perform? What do you think?

SCOTT MCCLELLAN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Well, it is a long time to be up there for all the candidates. But with 11 candidates, I think you really need that length of time to be able to get through all the right (ph) issues and hopefully get some interaction between the candidates on the substantive policy issues. I mean as was pointed out just a minute ago, they only have one minute for response and then 30 seconds to respond to someone that may challenges them on some of the issues. So I think that they'll be looking forward to the restroom break when that comes in the debate and I - I - you know, hopefully they recognize that camera could be on them at any time and they need to keep that tone and that kind of demeanor that they want to get across throughout the debate and not be looking at watches or anything like that.

AMANDA CARPENTER, FORMER TED CRUZ COMMUNICATIONS DIR.: You know what (INAUDIBLE) -

BANFIELD: I'm glad - I'm glad you mentioned that the camera could be on them at all times. And the reason I point that out is because CNN has put 13 cameras up there, so there is a camera on them at all times. They will not get the benefit of having a bad moment lost. And they'll get the benefit of a good moment not being lost.

So, you know what, Amanda, let me jump over to you, if I can. What about that coziness? I just said to Athena, they are literally within elbow-jab distance. That makes a difference, doesn't it?

CARPENTER: Oh, absolutely. And I was going to tell, Scott, you know, if the viewers want to play along at home, they could just stand there in front of their television cameras the entire time against a family member that they be fighting with on the political issues. I mean it's - but like you said, a very intimate setting. And I actually think it may favor Donald Trump a little bit just because he's so used to that tight reality TV camera on "The Apprentice." He has more experience with those close cut camera angles in prime time than anybody on stage.

BANFIELD: Well, wait a minute. Whoa, I'm going to jump in there because when you film "The Apprentice," there are scripts and there are cuts and edits. And in this intimate setting, he won't even be able to have a notebook in front of him. So, actually, I'll get you to weigh in on this, Dan. It is not an arena. Donald Trump feeds off of noise and beer drinking. I saw the beer drinking behind him in the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, and this is not that. This is a heady crowd, a small and quiet crowd. What do you think the effect will be on Trump?

DAN PFEIFFER, FORMER SR. ADVISER TO PRES. OBAMA: Well, I think he's going to have to find ways to draw enthusiasm, energy, from the other thing that Donald Trump loves, other than crowds, which is conflict. And so he actually, I think, suffered some from the crowd in the last debate because there were a lot of Republican establishment types who booed him for when he - wouldn't agree to take the pledge or he too some other shots at Megyn Kelly. But here it's just going to be Donald Trump and Jeb Bush or Donald Trump and anyone else, mono-e-mono (ph), against each other and that's a - I think that is actually going to be an environment that favors Trump over the other ones because he is complexly and totally comfortable turning right to Jeb Bush and saying something to his face. And I'm not sure Jeb Bush has that same comfort level.

[12:10:15] BANFIELD: OK. So I want to do something throughout this program -

CARPENTER: Yes, it's much more of a board room than a rally.

BANFIELD: Yes. I want to do something before I close out this segment, but I'm going to come back to you guys, so I want you to think this through a little bit. I want you each to give me the question that you would ask if you were sitting in Dana or Hugh or Jake's seat. And, Dan, I'll give that to you first. What's the question you would ask and who to?

PFEIFFER: Well, I would - I would say to Jeb Bush, Governor Bush, you've said that you - you said very critical things of Donald Trump. Turn to him and say them to his face right now. And let's see if Jeb Bush has what it takes to do that because he has promised he's going to take him on and let's see if he can put the exclamation point in that logo finally in this campaign.

BANFIELD: OK, Amanda, what's yours?

CARPENTER: I would say, Donald Trump, one of the most important things that a president does is appoint Supreme Court justices. You are on the record supporting the very controversial Kelo decision which ruled that private companies may seize property from private property owners for the common good. Do you still stand by the Kelo decision and would you appoint a justice who also supports it?

BANFIELD: Oh, the eminent domain issue. Nicely done.

Do I have time in this -

CARPENTER: That's right.

BANFIELD: Let me ask my producers if I have time to get Scott's question or if I have to wait till the next - OK, I've got - Scott, I was going to have to wait, but I'm going to squeeze your question in now. So what would yours be?

MCCLELLAN: Great. I'll go straight to immigration. I want to draw out the difference. And id' ask Jeb Bush, Donald Trump has said that he's for deporting 11 million immigrants here, that he's for revoking the birthright citizenship and building a wall. Ronald Reagan, where we are tonight, sign and supported am amnesty bill for immigrants who were here and had come here unlawfully. Why is Donald Trump wrong and why is Ronald Reagan's approach still good today and what does it mean for the Republican Party?

BANFIELD: Ronald Reagan's shining city on the hill I think you're referring to. There's a big campaign out there right now that pits Donald Trump's words about immigration against those exact words of - of Ronald Reagan.

All right, Dan, Scott, Amanda, awesome. I love the questions. I think Jake is probably listening and writing them down right now. Stand by, I've got a few more questions for you.

Of course, tonight, the big Republican debate, you can watch it right here on CNN. It starts at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time with the first round of candidates. And then the top ranked candidates are going to face off at 8:00 Eastern Time. Do not miss it. This promises to be some sweet TV, folks.

Coming up next, any one of them could be the next commander in chief and leader of the free world, so who among those on the stage tonight has the right stuff when it comes to everything going on over there, yes, foreign policy? And who just gets it wrong? That question, next.

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[12:16:25] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Despite the perennial doom and gloom that I guess is inevitably part of a presidential campaign, America is winning right now. America is great right now. We can do even better.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: That was President Obama speaking last hour at the business round table in Washington, D.C. And why that particular clip? Because what you haven't heard much about in this campaign so far is foreign policy, at least not specifics anyway. Lots of broad strokes. Lots of big, big sweeping comments, but are the candidates going to be held to the fire about it tonight? Live pictures for you right now from the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. And everything gets underway in fewer than six hours, folks. Pop your popcorn.

Hopefully, hopefully we're going to get a few more details from Donald Trump on his plans for what he would do about the Middle East, what he would do about ISIS and Syria and the U.S. military, because vague statements like the one he was tossing out yesterday aboard the battleship USS Iowa in Los Angeles have pretty much been par for the course. Take a listen.

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DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to make our military so big and so strong and so great - and it will be so powerful that I don't think we're ever going to have to use it. Nobody's going to mess with us.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BANFIELD: I want to bring in Colonel Rick Francona, who usually talks specifics because he's a CNN military analyst, and Phil Mudd, CNN counterterrorism analyst and former CIA counterterrorism official. Two guys who know a lot about the issues and the specific.

Phil, I want to begin with you. Foreign policy falls about sixth in importance in one of the last CNN polls when people are asked what they think is really important going into this. So is Donald Trump brilliant for leaving it by the wayside or is he clueless?

PHIL MUDD, CNN COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYST: Who's that for, Ashleigh?

BANFIELD: That's for you, Phil.

MUDD: OK. (INAUDIBLE). I think the conversation right now has nothing to do with foreign policy. It has to do with positioning yourself with a portion of the American electorate if you look at how the American electorate is responding so far, especially to Donald Trump, it's been positive. But if you talk to my - to me and my friends in the foreign policy world, conversations about Mexico, about Russia, about China, about ISIS, these conversations are politically interesting. They're irrelevant from a foreign policy perspective but - because there hasn't been a single, specific about how we'd do it. Confront something like Russia in Syria or ISIS in Iraq. There's been no specifics.

BANFIELD: So, Rick, I'd like to ask you, Donald Trump uses these terms almost - I mean it's almost like his entire lexicon's so big, so great, so terrific, huge, but we really won't hear much about what to do about very complex issues. And on a week where Bashar al-Assad, right now, is in cahoots with Russia according to some, this is getting very serious, and it doesn't seem to be taken very seriously. Is there a point where they absolutely have to get serious and have to get strong and actually outline things like Carly Fiorina did, but got no air time for it?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Right. And I hope that's what we're going to see tonight. We'll see specific questions directed at these candidates. So what would you do about the Russians in Syria? How would you deal with Vladimir Putin's adventurism not only in Syria but in Ukraine? How are you going to address that? The Iranian nuclear deal. We've heard platitudes about one day one I'm going to rip it up, but that doesn't solve the problem. How are you going to address the Iranian nuclear issue?

[12:20:13] So you're right, Phil's right, the specifics are lacking. And right now we're hearing these campaign platitudes, but we're not hearing any specific, how I'm going to do this. And, of course, when you listen to Mr. Trump talk about reinvigorating the military, I have yet to hear how he plans to pay for this in an age of sequestration.

BANFIELD: Yes, that's a big question and I bet you with two hours and 45 minutes in air time in the debate tonight, someone's going to ask that.

Phil and Rick, I want to ask you both, and I'll start with you, Phil, we did this in the last block and I'll do it now. If you each got a chance to ask these candidates something that's on your mind, what would the question be and who would you choose to ask the question of. So we'll start with you, Phil.

MUDD: Well, let me pick the player, Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio. Look, I served under multiple administrations. This is not political. I have a simple question. Let's use the Iran nuclear deal as an example. Multiple players here, some of whom don't agree with us, Russia, China, the Europeans have different perspectives than we do, the Germans, the French, the Brits. Simple question, if we choose to back away from the deal, if we choose to go unilateral, some of those players won't be with us. Here's my question, will you go unilateral to suppress or attempt to suppress the Iranian program or not? Yes or no? That's it.

BANFIELD: That's a good one and it's a tough one, too.

OK, Colonel Francona, what would your question be and for whom?

FRANCONA: I would - I would address my question to Governor Kasich. I would like to say, Governor Kasich, you - you're running on a platform of fiscal responsibility. You've told us how you've balanced the budget and, you know, how you brought Ohio along and changed the economy there. I would like to know how you plan to address the sequestration issue, as I referred to before. We cannot afford to cut 40,000 people from the Army and meet our objectives overseas anymore. So what are you going to do about it? How are you going to work with the Congress to get rid of this and get a budget that we can live with and yet meet our expectations?

BANFIELD: Well, and I both you - I bet that you would both want to ask Senator Lindsey Graham something considering he has so many foreign policy bonafides (ph), but he's not on that main stage tonight, so you wouldn't be allowed to. He's on the undercard.

Thanks, guys. I appreciate it. Colonel Francona, Phil Mudd, thanks.

MUDD: Thank you.

FRANCONA: Take care.

BANFIELD: And, by the way, stay with us because the Republican debate's clicking clock away now. It's starting at 6:00, the undercard begins, and then 8:00 for the big game.

Coming up next, he has that big exclamation point on his campaign placard, but Jeb Bush just may be the biggest question mark there on the stage tonight. Does he have what it takes to reverse that slide in the polls and reclaim the top spot that he had for quite some time? We'll answer that, next.

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[12:26:35] BANFIELD: Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a huge task ahead of him at tonight's debate. Donald Trump has attacked Bush's campaign style, calling him over and over again a low energy candidate who even puts his supporters to sleep. Governor Bush does generally set a more sober tone, which can fall flat compared to Trump's flamboyant, bombastic style. Joining me now is the former Bush's political strategist who helped to prepare Jeb Bush for the Florida governor's debate back in 1994 and his name is John Stipanovich.

I know you go by Mac, so I'm going to say, Mac, before that first debate, Mr. Trump made some big headlines saying that he would deport all illegal immigrants. And here is how Jeb Bush tackled that subject without referencing Donald Trump. Have a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We need to deal with people that come with a legal visa and overstay. We need to be much more strategic on how we deal with border enforcement, border security. We need to eliminate the sanctuary cities in this country. It is ridiculous and tragic that people are dying because of the fact that local governments are not following the federal law.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Since that debate, however, following several Trump attacks and declining poll numbers, Governor Bush has taken on a decidedly more aggressive tone. Have a peak.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: I'll campaign hard. If someone comes at me, bam, I'll come back at them. Don't worry about that. I'll campaign hard.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Yowsa (ph). OK. So my question to you, Mac, is, the Bush that you prepped back then, is he the same guy now, and is it good advice to tell him to change who he is and become more aggressive and go after Trump?

JOHN "MAC" STIPANOVICH, FORMER JEB BUSH POLITICAL STRATEGIST: Well, in '94, Jeb's vulnerability was that he would be perceive to be - you know, he was young and he had no name recognition other than his family name recognition. He had no elective office experience. And so the challenge there was for him to have gravitas. To not be found wanting in terms of information. So that's what we focused on, not presentation.

Clearly now he is a master of the substance and what we're mostly talking about is presentation. I think tonight he needs not to over answer. He should be short, sharp and passionate without being inauthentic. If attacked, he should respond directly and forcefully, but I don't think he should go out of his way to attack anyone else.

BANFIELD: So it's -

STIPANOVICH: This is a long, long campaign.

BANFIELD: It's a long haul, you're right, and that whole issue of being inauthentic is the really sticky wicket. I suppose I - if you were advising him, would you tell him to go head-to-head with Trump's energy or would you advise him to call out the fact that Trump has energy because he's an entertainer, not because he's perhaps a political leader?

STIPANOVICH: I would tell him that when Donald Trump speaks gibberish, which is about 90 percent of the time, that he should point out that he's speaking gibberish. I wouldn't, you know, get in the mud with Trump because, you know, as people always say, when you wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it. So, you know, and that's really not, as you pointed out, Jeb's forte. I mean you could ask Trump the question you were just posing about, how are you really going to round up 11 million people and deport them and he'd say your tie's ugly and so is your mama. You know, how do you deal with that?

BANFIELD: Well, I think that's the question I have for you, how do you advise a person who's used to having logical debates, how do you advise them to have a conversation with someone who does not follow these same rules?

[12:30:07] STIPANOVICH: I would keep - I would not let Trump distract from the point that he's not saying anything. I would keep driving him home and saying