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Tracking Hurricane Joaquin Targeting the East Coast; Russia Unleashes Syria Airstrikes; Bush Asks for Patience from Voters and Donors; Syrian Ambassador to Russia Speaking Out; Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired October 01, 2015 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:01] EVAN PEREZ, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: He allegedly confessed to the ATF that he ran a factory in Mexico making grenades and explosives for the cartel. In addition to those two, there's also Jorge Costilla Sanchez. He's a former leader of the Gulf Cartel. Yesterday was a big day for law enforcement, as you mentioned, because they've been trying to get these guys in U.S. to face justice for some time.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: And we saw what happened when El Chapo was not extradited, he escaped.

Evan Perez, thank you.

Good morning, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow. I'm in for Carol Costello. 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Thank you so much for being with me. We begin with what you see over my shoulder and that is a strengthening hurricane. Hurricane Joaquin strengthening overnight right now to a Category 3 storm. It is bearing down in the Bahamas. Winds topping 120 miles per hour. Huge surf already slamming the shores. Growing fears this morning that Joaquin could be the next Sandy.

The East Coast in its path. Record rain from a different system, flooding cities from Massachusetts to Maine. Red Cross workers in Pennsylvania packing emergency bags like these ones, handing them out.

Chad Myers on top of it all for us in the Severe Weather Center. It is scary to think of anything that is being compared to Sandy.

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: And this is getting stronger and stronger every hour, Poppy. And that's what Sandy did. Sandy was a major hurricane south of where it made landfall. And then ran up the East Coast and turned left right toward Atlantic City. And this now, I believe this is a category 4 hurricane. I can find the eye right there. It's very small. The pressure's down to what we call 938 milibars.

We know that because an airplane is flying through it. I wouldn't want to be on this airplane. I'm not sure how the men and women do it. That is a bumpy ride, for sure. It's going to go to 140 later on today or tomorrow anyway. I think it's probably already there at this point. It turns to the right. It turns to the north. It misses Florida. How far away from the coast will it be when it -- if it turns to the left back toward the U.S.? This is where the Sandy scenario comes from. But I want you to

understand the distance for the possibility from all the way to the left into West Virginia and dying as a rainmaker all the way out halfway to Bermuda. That's where it could be. You think about that's the air in the model right now. And there are many models. And we thought they would get better overnight. And I don't think they did. They almost spread out. This looks more like confetti than spaghetti. Looks like somebody pulled out of a cannon and shoot off for New Year's Eve.

We just don't like this model. We're going to get a new model run started at 8:00. It's running now. The computers are running now. And we'll get a better idea probably around the 11:00 hour. And that's exactly when the Hurricane Center is going to put out their new forecast.

What we know, whether this storm hits landfall or not is that they're going to be flooding in the Carolinas, Virginia, maybe in Mount Georgia. We'll watch that. If it makes landfall in this very saturated ground, we're going to have trees falling inland for hundreds of miles with that wind. Saturated, the roots are wet, it's just mud. But we certainly don't want anything like Sandy. It's not out of the question. I just want you to know that there are so many other scenarios other than Sandy.

HARLOW: Let's hope they are better scenarios. Chad Myers, thank you as always.

I do want to turn now to the rising tension between Washington and Moscow. And confirmation that Russia has carried out a second straight day of airstrikes in Syria.

Take a look at this. We got new video in overnight of some of the bombings. At the heart of the concern, though, doubt, doubt that Russia is actually targeting ISIS fighters as it claims. Washington says there's evidence that warplanes are striking the U.S.-backed rebels who are trying to oust dictator Bashar al-Assad, who of course Russia supports.

The concern is serious enough to prompt a face-to-face meeting among Washington and Moscow's top diplomat. Russia is saying its intelligence is limiting strikes to ISIS outside of civilian areas. This morning Republican Senator John McCain angrily disputed that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I can absolutely confirm to you that they were strikes against our Free Syrian Army or groups that have been armed and trained by the CIA because we have communications with people there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Barbara Starr tracking it all from the Pentagon.

Barbara, to you, good morning. John McCain says, I can absolutely confirm to you because of, you know, our intelligence. Is that what the Pentagon's saying?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're not disputing it. I have to tell you that. Monitoring all these reports coming out of the region from these various groups that their people have been struck, their areas have been struck. A number of reports of civilian casualties.

A lot of concern at the Pentagon because basically the geography at Syria is pretty simple. In the west where the Russians are bombing, these are not known ISIS strongholds, no significant presence if any of ISIS in these areas of western Syria where you see the Russian strikes. These are strongholds, if you will, of the anti-regime forces.

[10:05:14] So if the Russians are striking this area, they are attacking the very forces that are trying to oust Assad so the Russian action has the impact of boosting Assad, propping him up, keeping him in power, which is not what the U.S. wants to see. ISIS is not here in these areas. ISIS is in the north and east of Syria and that's where most of the U.S. strikes are happening -- Poppy.

HARLOW: Barbara, when you talk about where the U.S. strikes are happening and where these Russian strikes are happening, is there a plan to be more coordinated now that you've got different factions, different coalitions striking?

STARR: Well, I think that's really a key question even today as we talk about this. The indications are from the Defense Department that they will have a meeting with the Russians later today. Military to military. It will probably happen by video teleconference because they're not going to be able to meet in person. After yesterday they want to fast-track it, they want to sit down with the Russian military, get an idea of what they're doing, and come to these common procedures. How do you communicate? How do you share information?

At the moment, the U.S. plan is to continue with what it's doing. Again, the ISIS areas in the north and east of Syria, but they need to know if the Russians want to plan to move out into those areas.

The U.S. pilots have a pretty good capability through their technology to know who's in the sky and be able to stay away from them. But nobody wants to leave this to accident or chance. They to want have these procedures established.

HARLOW: Barbara Starr reporting for us live at the Pentagon. Thank you very much.

Let's talk more about this now with senior fellow at Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Andrew Tabler. Thank you for being here.

ANDREW TABLER, SENIOR FELLOW, WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY: My pleasure.

HARLOW: You are also the author of the book "In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria." You were editor-in-chief of "Syria Today," an English language magazine for more than 10 years. You have this unique perspective on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Your take right now on his mentality as Russia begins these strikes?

TABLER: I think yet again Bashar al-Assad is breathing a sigh of relief. The Russians have come to his assistance. In addition to earlier, the Iranians and also a lot of Iraqi Shia militias as well. But if you're President Assad, you're probably not sleeping well. You only control about 20 percent of the country. There seems to be a game plan here with the Russians to push the rebels back but a victory over all of Syrian territory is -- I just don't think in the cards.

HARLOW: So Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday, this is before those airstrikes began yesterday but on Tuesday, he said, look, Vladimir Putin's presence in Syria is a possible, quote. "opportunity" for the United States. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: If he is going to side with Assad and with Iran and Hezbollah, he's going to have a very serious problem with the Sunni countries in the region, and that means that he could even become a target for those Sunni jihadis, so this is very complicated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Your assessment of what the secretary of state said there.

TABLER: I think it was a bad call. I mean, obviously, the events of the last 24 to 48 hours have shown that actually they are intervening on behalf of the Assad regime and the Iranians and the problem is not just that you're picking a fight with the majority Sunni population and countries in the region as a whole, but Syria is a majority Sunni country and you just stoked a sectarian war in Syria that has actually been taking place for years. You make it even worse.

I think that this is not an opportunity. I think the Russians actually have been telegraphing this plan overall to us for years. Unfortunately, Secretary Kerry spent most of his time engaging with Lavrov on another plan to get Assad to step aside. That is not happening and it's not going to happen --

(CROSSTALK)

HARLOW: Well, how should he be engaging then with Lavrov? They have this meeting in an hour's time. What the engagement be like now?

TABLER: Well, I think that the most important thing is to again talk to them about an end state in Syria and do they see a viable alternative to Assad and getting some sort of transition in the country. And unless you have that conversation, there's really no way to square -- when Assad only controls 20 percent of his country with all of that help, with all of the chemical weapons, with all of the scud missiles, you know, in the end that's really not something that's sustainable. It's also not something politically the United States should be with.

We should not be picking a fight with the majority Sunni population in the Middle East. We have a hard enough time with them already. We don't need to be handing them over to the Iranians and the Russians.

HARLOW: And final question, thought. But you heard Putin said in his interview with Charlie Rose on "60 Minutes." Right? I mean, he said, yes, look, this is the legitimate leadership. Who am I to question that? Yes, we are supportive of the legitimate leadership.

[10:10:11] TABLER: Right.

HARLOW: It just doesn't sound, at least from what Putin said, that he or Lavrov are in that state of mind yet.

TABLER: Right. Because they saying they're legally intervening on behalf of Assad who still holds the U.N. seat. But of course if you use that same logic in Ukraine, then Russian intervention there is illegal. What they say in Ukraine it's a coup. It's circular logic. It's just suiting their interest. The U.S. needs a game plan in order to turn this back, or to check it or just admit that we don't have any game in this and give up.

And I think the White House is in a real bind and we need some really hard-nose diplomacy out of John Kerry and I'm -- we're waiting to see what comes out of that meeting.

HARLOW: Right.

TABLER: But so far it's not gone well.

HARLOW: Yes. Well, a lot of tough diplomacy ahead.

Andrew Tabler, so appreciate the expertise so thank you.

TABLER: My pleasure.

HARLOW: And still to come, the question many of you are asking, will Joe Biden run? Why the vice president is certainly not rushing to a decision. We'll talk about it next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:15:25] HARLOW: More talk than action, that is how one senior Democrat is describing Vice President Biden's current plans on jumping into the race for 2016. He is sitting out the first Democratic debate. It will be right here on CNN on October 13th, but several other Democratic sources are telling us that Biden will announce his plans either way by the end of this month.

On the Republican side, Jeb Bush is trying to regain some of the momentum he has lost, some of those poll numbers that have slipped, explaining his vision for a campaign that lasts all the way to the White House.

Chief political correspondent Dana Bash sat down with him. Here's what she asked.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The irony of Jeb Bush being labeled low energy is that he's a tireless campaigner.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Each and every day I wake up with joy in my heart, with excitement. Yes, Mr. Trump, with high energy.

BASH: Barn storming the early contest states with a break-neck schedule but some worried backers tell CNN all that effort makes his declining support with voters even more alarming.

(On camera): But one of your significant donors told me it's as if we keep investing in a company and as a shareholder, we're not seeing any sales.

BUSH: Who is that?

BASH: What do you say?

BUSH: Who is that person?

BASH: And I don't want to say.

BUSH: Yes. He don't either, I guess. Look, the fact is that we've got a plan, we're executing on the plan. I'm convinced I'm going to win the Republican nomination. I'm going to do it in a way that will actually make it possible to win the general election as well.

BASH: Once the frontrunner, Bush has lost 50 percent, half of his support nationally since July, even here in the Granite State where Bush was leading in June, he's now tied for fifth place according to a CNN-WMUR poll last week. The result, Bush aides are spending a lot of time trying to reassure anxious donors and supporters what Jeb Bush himself told us -- be patient. That Bush rivals may be generating buzz but Bush is building a nationwide infrastructure team to keep him alive for the GOP contests well into the spring.

BUSH: Patience. That's my first part of the strategy. The second part would be more patience.

BASH: But the long haul does not lead to victory unless Bush can actually win Republican delegates. To do that, even Bush campaign advisers admit the central pieces of his campaign has to work, that he can shed the Bush baggage and convince voters he is the Washington outsider they're looking for.

BUSH: I think people want authenticity. They want -- they want someone who has leadership skills to turn ideas into reality. I got to do that as governor of Florida. I can do it as president of the United States. So I'll convince people of that.

BASH: But even some Bush backers worry the problem is fundamental. Republican voters are looking for excitement and change. Endurance is one thing. Electricity is another. Something Jeb Bush is lacking.

BUSH: I'm the tortoise in the race. Slow, steady progress each and every day.

BASH: Often voters leave Bush events impressed but not excited. Bush aides insist that's OK. Voters are now letting off steam by backing Donald Trump and other first-time politicians. But when it comes time to pull the lever, they'll go for the adult in the room.

BUSH: Ultimately, this is not about the loudest. You know, it's not an entertainment. We're not auditions for some kind of show here. We're running for president of the United States.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Jeb Bush used to call this process a marathon. Now he says it's more like a triathlon and he's just going to have to keep pushing out his message, trying to convince voters that he is his own man and he has got leadership skills. And after a town hall where I was with him last night, several voters said that they were surprised and impressed by how solid he was, how well versed he was on the issues but nobody said that he was exciting to them and that might be one of his biggest challenges -- Poppy.

HARLOW: Dana Bash, fascinating report.

Go to CNNpolitics.com, much more of Dana's interview with Jeb Bush there.

So does the tortoise win the race or is it all about excitement? Let's bring in Larry Sabato. He is the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. What do you make of his argument and what his camp is insisting?

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA'S CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well, Poppy, one part of it makes a lot of sense. Bush has done what none of his opponents on the Republican side have really done, which is to build a nationwide infrastructure and to prepare a national campaign that can slod all the way through the 57 contests, 50 states, D.C., six territories, all the way through June.

He's raised far more money than anyone else. He's probably going to add another $20 million once his figure is announced from the third quarter. So all that's good. His problem, though, is not just his last name. It's that a solid majority of Republicans do not want an establishment politician and he's at the tippy top pinnacle of the establishment. His brother and father have held the White House for 12 years. The idea that somehow he's an outsider will never sell.

[10:20:15] HARLOW: Take a look at the latest "USA Today" poll, and where these numbers have him. If we can pull it up. They have him in fifth place with just 8 percent support. Actually Rubio, you know, who he calls his friend, leading him. What do you do? Because those numbers are reflective of something.

SABATO: There's only one way Jeb Bush can win the election, and that's war of attrition. It's a war of attrition. He is not going to be crowned the nominee the way his father and brother were, relatively early in the primary process. He'll have to go all the way through it and he'll have to win by yards, by inches. It's not going to be a rundown the football field for a touchdown.

HARLOW: You know, it's interesting, Donald Trump came out yesterday and said Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, they're not actually friends. This is all just, you know, politically made up, et cetera, et cetera. Jeb Bush said absolutely not the case, they are friends. Is it time, looking at the fact that Rubio is leading Bush by a point within the margin of error in that poll, is it time for Jeb Bush to go a little bit more on the attack against Rubio?

SABATO: Don't worry, he will. We're a long way from Iowa, which starts February 1st in the primary season. Look, I think the appropriate way to put is, they were friends. But then Marco Rubio challenged Jeb Bush and now you have a second Floridian in the presidential race. So, you know, in politics, friendship can be very thin.

HARLOW: Yes. Also in politics, all's fair. Right? Larry Sabato, thank you as always.

SABATO: Thank you.

HARLOW: Still to come, Donald Trump weighing in on Russian airstrikes in Syria. But on other topics and issues, he would prefer not to give specifics.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I've said it a hundred times. I don't like talking so specifically. I'm going to do this, I'm going to do that, like a fool. I'm going to do this, this, this. I want them to understand, I want to be unpredictable.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[10:26:27] HARLOW: Breaking news. A major development to tell you about. A Syrian ambassador to Russia telling CNN that all rebel groups, including ISIS, are trying to, quote, "spread terror" and that Russians are helping Syrians destroy all rebel groups.

This is very significant because some of those rebel groups are propped up by the United States, including the Free Syrian Army.

CNN's Matthew Chance, more on this. This is a very significant development. The Syrian ambassador to U.S., Riad Haddad, just telling you this.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right. I sat down with him shortly after he gave a news conference here in Moscow a couple of hours ago. I sat down with him about an hour ago and this is one of the things that we spoke about.

There's been some confusion, of course, and some contradictions between the U.S. and Moscow about what targets specifically are being hit in these airstrikes being carried out by Russia on the territory of Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry has been insisting that this is about Islamic State, that they've been focused on Islamic State targets but reports from the ground, the video that we've been seeing, the intelligence reports from U.S. officials, tending to contradict that. Some of the video we saw yesterday from the province of Homs, which is not in ISIS hands, that's where the first airstrikes took place by the Russian military.

To get some clarification, I spoke with the -- Syrian ambassador to Russia within the past hour and he confirmed that Syria had requested and Russia had agreed to help the Syrian army in destroying not just ISIS but other rebel groups as well, the opponents of Bashar al-Assad. It really adds to that idea that the Russian intervention in Syria is not simply about destroying ISIS. That may be one of their targets but it's also about supporting the government of Bashar al-Assad and Russian warplanes clearly prepared to strike at rebel groups who pose the biggest threat to President Assad.

If that's ISIS, so be it, but it's also a plethora, as you know, of rebel groups inside Syria which are now falling within the firing line.

HARLOW: Matthew, also he told you, I understand, that the two days of strikes by Russian forces have been more effective than the coalition strikes all the way through. Is that right?

CHANCE: Yes, that's right. I mean, Obviously the Syrian ambassador to Russia full of praise for the action of the Kremlin. He said that he was very pleased by the fact that action had been taken so quickly. And he did make that point, that, you know, in the past two days of airstrikes where the Russians have carried out somewhere in the region of 20 to 30 airstrikes in various locations across Syria, from the Syrian government perspective, that has been more effective than the -- you know, the hundreds if not thousands of airstrikes carried out by the United States and its coalition of 60 countries in their attacks against ISIS.

I mean, remember, this comes from a particular perspective. The Syrian government is anxious to survive. It wants to make sure that the rebel groups that are nipping at its heels are, you know, attacked as much as possible and pushed back as much as possible. And it seems that the Russians are very clearly at doing that. The ambassador also told the Russian military are working very closely, sharing intelligence with the Syrian military, you know, almost becoming the sort of air wing of the Syrian armed forces. I'm paraphrasing what he said there.

HARLOW: Right.

CHANCE: But that was the implication, that, you know, they are working now in close coordination with each other.

HARLOW: Right.

Matthew Chance, fascinating reporting. Very important development. Thank you, sir, from Moscow.

I do want to let you know our Barbara Starr just reporting, just into us, that U.S. and Russian military will hold a secure video teleconference at 11:00 a.m. Eastern so in just about 30 minutes time --

(END)