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CONNECT THE WORLD
War Ravaged Yemen Prepares for Tropical Cyclone; Myanmar Prepares to Vote; Debate Over When Iranian Sanctions Will be Lifted; Turkey's AKP Wins Outright Majority. Aired 11:00a-12:00p ET
Aired November 2, 2015 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:13] BECKY ANDERSON, HOST: Big win, a celebration in the streets of Ankara as Turkey's ruling party makes a surprise comeback in the
second parliamentary election in less than six months. What this means for a President Erdogan's political aspirations up next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is all political, he says. There are actually no problems between the religious communities, but it has been
influenced by political groups.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Another election is just days away in Myanmar where some say
tensions between Buddhist and Muslims are being inflamed by politics. We'll have a full report later in the show.
And bracing for impact, already ravaged by war, Yemen is in the eye of the
storm. We'll see the power of Cyclone Chapala, just ahead.
ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Abu Dhabi, this is Connect the World with Becky Anderson.
ANDERSON: A very good evening from here. It is 8:00 in the UAE. President -- the Turkish President calls it a sweeping mandate for
stability as ruling Justice and Development Party won a landslide victory in Sunday's election regaining its parliamentary majority, and winning
enough seats for single party rule.
European monitors say the vote was marred by a media crackdown, by violence and security concerns.
Well, Nick Paton Walsh joins us now from southern Turkey with more.
Not a result that the pollsters had forecast, Nick. What went wrong for the opposition? And what does this victory mean for Turkey and its
NICK PATSON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think it may be what went right in the instability in the interim between the
election five months ago and the election yesterday, that instability seems to have got some people who may have moved away from Erdogan's Justice and
Development, known as the AKP Party and sought other choices to go back to kind of their homeland, so to speak.
Now, the results were sort of down to fractions, really. But the key one, of course, the AKP getting about 49.5 percent. The other important
number is what the Kurdish HDP got. Now many felt that they've managed to pass the 10 percent
threshold in the previous elections simply because there were many disenfranchised, angry -- normal voters of the AKP who went elsewhere and
because of the Kurdish groups in the country, too, who supported them.
They again in this election passed that 10 percent threshold. Had they not done that under the kind of curious electoral system Turkey has
that the distribution of seats would have significantly favored the AKP more, maybe giving them enough seats to start tampering with the
constitution via referendum, or even if they got enough without even needing to consult the people first.
So, a clear I think change here, many seeing perhaps part of this vote was a
criticism of the HDP, that Kurdish party's normal supporters seeing the turmoil of violence here in Turkey between the government, the army, and
the PKK, that Kurdish militant group that Turkey calls terrorists and perhaps that meaning some voters decided they wanted to punish the Kurdish
political party that was on the ballot here.
But I think the simple takeaway here is after a period of uncertainty in which frankly many believe President Erdogan allowed the paralysis
politically to continue, to let this election come forward and perhaps offer himself as f the choice of stability, we now (inaudible) for the past
decade or so with the AKP and Erdogan in power -- Becky.
ANDERSON: Nick Paton Walsh on the border for you this evening.
Later in the show we'll be live in Istanbul hearing what this win means for an already dominant president, accused by some of having his
heart set on boosting his executive powers. And the Turkish lira? Will it react to the landslide win as stocks soar? We'll look at the economic
implications of this result.
We'll get you to Iraq now where thousands of Yazidis are seeking to reclaim their homeland from ISIS.
You may remember these images from a little more than a year ago when ISIS swept through the town of Sinjar.
Yazidi men, women and children were forced to flee. Those unable to make it out were enslaved or killed.
Well, now thousands of Yazidis have joined Kurdish forces on Mount Sinjar hoping to drive ISIS out of the town below.
CNN's senior international correspondent Nima Elbagir was granted exclusive access to meet those fighters.
ELBAGIR (voice-over): The Yazidi Peshmerga fighters -- volunteers, former soldiers and a handful of trained officers -- looking out over the
ISIS front line.
(on camera): He's pointing out to us all along here you can see the defensive ditches that have been dug. Said they come as close as that
valley just there. They mortar, they fire on us, they eventually retreat, but it's pretty never-ending.
(voice-over): This vantage point itself was in the not too distant past ISIS held.
(on camera): Just there he said you can see what they did to the Yazidis. The houses are completely destroyed. They slaughtered all the
families inside. It really drives home how visceral this was.
(voice-over): Deputy commander Marku Cidu (ph) is 66. He's a retired soldier, one of the few here with fighting experience.
(on camera): This is a fragment of skull that they found. This whole patch of ground is mass graves. He said they found about 150 bodies from
children as young as 1 year old all the way up to 80. It is, they say, just a reminder to them of what it is they're fighting for. They're fighting for
their very survival.
(voice-over): The massacre of thousands of Yazidi men, women, and children by ISIS last year resonated around the world. Here in the
foothills of the Sinjar mountain, thousands of Yazidi volunteers are joining up to fight.
Sinjar City and the mountain that looms over it is at the heart of the homeland of the Yazidi minority. It falls along a crucial supply route,
linking ISIS strongholds in Iraq and Syria. When ISIS took the city August last year, their intent was to drive the Yazidis to extinction. Those who
managed to escape the ensuing massacre now shelter in tents on barren slopes, overlooking their former homes.
These are the families of the fighters standing guard down below. This is what they're fighting for.
At the front, a poem is being recited. It speaks of lost honor, slaughtered wives and sisters, empty homes. It's meant to remind the
soldiers of what's at stake. They tell us they know only too well -- this is a battle for their very existence.
[11:07:33] ANDERSON: Well, Nima joins us tonight from Darhuq (ph) in Iraq. And Nima, just as Turkey's president will be considering how he will
pitch his policy vis-a-vis Syria and Iraq and the fight against ISIS, so thousands of Yazidis, as you report, joining up to fight against ISIS in
Iraq for Sinjar City.
But it is -- does seem clear from your exclusive reporting, they are not well equipped. When does the battle to drive the extremist group from
the area begin? And how well supported are those on the ground by U.S. coalition airstrikes at this point?
ELBAGIR: Well, these are absolutely the important questions, Becky. We don't have a time frame yet for the offensive. We saw for ourselves
that preparations are under way. Definitely we saw that coalition airstrikes have been
intensifying, giving you a sense perhaps of softening that ISIS hold on Sinjar.
But at the same time we also saw cars quite brazenly moving down that main artery between those ISIS strongholds in Mosul, in Sinjar, and in
So, it doesn't feel that ISIS has melted back into the countryside in any way. Those soldiers, those fighters you saw, very ill-equipped. Some
of them were given days, some just hours of training.
But they want to be part of this. They feel they need to be part of this. And we talk so much about the bigger picture, about how the broader
bend of this operation is to fragment the ISIS territorial footprint, to break up the communication and the resupply capabilities between Iraq and
But down there in Sinjar, in the foothills and overlooking that town, Becky, for them it's very simple it's about their families, it's about
their lives, and it's about how to actually claw back some peace after what ISIS did to them last year -- Becky.
ANDERSON: Nima there in in Iraq for you this evening. Nima, thank you.
Still to come, what the Russian airline Metrojet is blaming for the deadly crash in the Sinai. All 224 people on board were killed. We are in
St. Petersburg for you for the very latest on the investigation. That is up next.
And then a cyclone in the desert, an extremely rare storm nearing landfall in Yemen. You're watching Connect the World. I'm Becky Anderson.
We are in the UAE at 10 minutes past 8:00. Back after this.
[11:12:16] ANDERSON: Well, you're looking at some of the latest images out of Egypt showing the crash site of what is a Russian passenger
plane. You can see the wreckage scattered across the Sinai desert.
Now, investigators are trying to determine why the plane broke apart, killing all 224 people on board.
You're watching CNN. This is Connect the World with me Becky Anderson. Welcome back.
Metrojet, the operator of the plane, says, quote, external influence is the only reasonable explanation for the crash. An airline executive
told a news conference he doesn't think technical problems, but human error are to blame.
An Egyptian official says no distress calls were received from the pilots before the jet disappeared from radar on Saturday.
Now, the plane's black boxes have been recovered and are being analyzed in Cairo. People in St. Petersburg where the plane was headed,
are mourning the victims, most of whom were Russians heading home from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.
Joining me now from St. Petersburg is CNN senior international correspondent Matthew Chance. And Matthew, to quote the airline, the only
reasonable explanation for the crash of this jet is, quote, external influence. What does that mean?
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's not altogether
clear, is it? I mean, the director general, the deputy director general Alexander Smirnov (ph), was basically talking in very circumspect terms.
And I think one of the reasons for that is that first of all they have to be very carefully legally. If it is found to be technical failure that is
responsible for this huge loss of life in this country, a national tragedy -- you can see the scenes being played out behind me with people laying
flowers here even as we speak three days after the tragedy took place -- then potentially the company could face legal consequences.
Equally, there are other interested parties as well in terms of what was responsible for this catastrophe. I mean, the government intervened,
the Kremlin intervened in Syria, sent its military forces there carrying out airstrikes. Any suggestion that this is blowback because of that,
retribution by jihadist groups may have political consequences.
And so everybody now is waiting for the outcome of the investigation. As you can see at the moment, people are focusing -- ordinary people are
focusing on mourning. They're still grieving the loss of those 224 lives.
But questions are starting to be asked. Was this a result of terrorism
or technical failure? And we're going to have to wait for the investigation to explain that to us.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALEXANDER SMIRNOV, DEPUTY GENERAL DIRECTOR METROJET (through translator): The plane, Airbus A-320, is a very reliable plane, which has
protection systems that won't let the plane go into overload even if there were major errors in the
pilot's control equipment. Therefore, the only reason that could explain the plane's breaking up in the midair can be a certain influence, purely
technical, mechanical in part on flying vessel.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHANCE: Yes, so that was Alexander Smirnov, the director general of Metrojet, as we were talking about trying to explain that he did not
believe, or at least playing down the technical problems could have been the likely reason
for this catastrophe.
Matthew, how soon before relatives get the results of the black box analysis? Black boxes, of course, have been found. Do we have any sense
of a timeline at this point?
CHANCE: Not really, no. I mean -- but the impression you get is that this is going to proceed as quickly as possible. There are also different
countries involved. Airbus, the aircraft manufacturer, is involved. The Irish government because the plane was registered through complex
procedures in Ireland.
And so there will be a sort of international investigation, if you like, into this catastrophe, into this crash.
And so, we hope to get some firmer indication of what went wrong in the days ahead.
I mean, in the meantime, the focus is still on identifying the remains of the 224 people on board. There's been a flight this morning carrying
144 bodies and what's left of them. There's another flight going to be arriving here in St. Petersburg in the hours ahead as well. We don't have
the exact time for that. They will be taken to the local morgue. And relatives are being bused in to carry out that very grim, painful formality
of identifying their loved ones.
And so, the grieving phase of this catastrophe is still very much underway.
ANDERSON: Matthew is in St. Petersburg this evening for you.
Live from Abu Dhabi, you're watching Connect the Word. This CNN. Coming up,
the first tropical cyclone on record to hit Yemen is packing hurricane- force winds. We're going to get you the very latest on what is an incredibly rare storm.
And Myanmar gearing up to go to the polls in a landmark election. We take a look at what role religion plays in the ethnically diverse country.
Taking a very short break. Back after this.
[11:20:08] ANDERSON: Well, the fury of Cyclone Chapala there as it lashes a Yemeni island, the extremely rare storm packing hurricane force
winds as it nears landfall on the mainland.
This is CNN live from Abu Dhabi.
No storm that strong has ever hit Yemen in recorded history. Chapala is expected to drop several years, years worth of rain on dry desert areas
in just one day.
Officials say many people have evacuated their homes in coastal areas as the storm approaches.
This is quite remarkable. Chad Myers tracking the storm at the CNN weather center joining us with the very latest. When is it expected to hit
land at this point?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Probably in about 12 hours. It's moving at about 9 knots which is somewhere around 13 or 14 kilometers per
hour and moving right toward land right now.
But what I've noticed is that we're finally gulping in some drier air off the desert, and dry air will kill a cyclone, a hurricane, tropical
storm, all of those. It's all the same thing whether you call it a typhoon or not.
But this is only the second big storm. This is the second storm ever to be in this Gulf of Aden area and the second largest ever as well.
There is the eye of it right now moving toward al-Mucala (ph). And that is the area that's going to also see the storm surge, going to see the
saltwater flood as the waves and the wind push the ocean on shore of the Gulf of Aden.
And then you're going to get the freshwater flood because we're going to see so much rainfall here in the desert.
You think the desert will just absorb it. No, it doesn't. It doesn't do a very good job of absorbing it because there are mountains there just
to the north of these cities. Well, now not huge, but 2000 meters high. So the water is going to be on top of the mountain, somewhere between 250
millimeters -- I think, probably closer to half a millimeter of rain coming down in 24 hours, and that, as you said, will be years worth of rainfall
coming down in just a short amount of time.
Let me take you to the floor here and I'm going to show you the problem, and it is the topography. Yes, we will have wind damage, and this
is a war-torn area. A lot of people not even really living in really solid structures any longer because of that war, and you're going to have winds
of 150 kilometers per hour.
Then you're going to have the flooding and then you're going to have the rain water washing down these very dry areas. This entire area here,
2,000 meters high, that all of a sudden it has to get back down into the ocean. And this is the real rub, more people die in freshwater flooding
than in wind damage or the storm surge because people aren't ready for it.
I hope the people here are.
Back to you.
ANDERSON: Why -- how does a storm like this develop? You just alluded to the fact that there is sort of three storms, what, in the last
decade that have been anything like this size in this region. How do they develop like this?
MYERS: Most of them turn before they get here, before they get into the Gulf of Aden, before they get really into the Arabian Sea. This is
this area that is very dry all the time and they all turn to the right or turn to the left and then die.
This one, this particular one, has had no wind shear. Wind shear takes a storm, a hurricane, cyclone, tropical storm, and tears it apart.
It doesn't like that, it doesn't want wind. Well, there has not been any shear here, plus the water is very warm, almost 2 degrees Celsius warmer
than normal right here, that increases the potential energy for the storm. And that's why we have it so strong this year.
ANDERSON: It's fascinating, Chad, because it has been particularly hot into what is normally a much cooler season at this point. So, we've
even here -- we've even felt the winds here over the past 24 hours, and this is some distance, as you know, away from the eye of this storm.
All right, thank you for that.
The latest world news headlines are just ahead. Plus a vote for stability. That is what Turkey's president calls his party's big win over
the weekend. We get the view from Istanbul for you in just a moment.
[11:28:15] You're watching Connect the World with me, Becky Anderson. The top stories for you this hour out of the UAE this evening. The
operator of a Russian passenger jet that went down in Egypt says an external influence, and I quote, is the only reasonable explanation for the
crash, however, Russian aviation officials warn against jumping to conclusions.
Now, the plane broke apart in the air on Saturday, killing all 224 people on
Japan and South Korea have agreed to step up efforts to resolve the issue of Comfort Women, those forced to work in Japan's war-time military
Prime Ministers of both nations met a day after holding a trilateral summit with the Chinese premier.
Yemen is bracing for an unusually strong cyclone hurtling towards its coast. The storm brushed past the island of Sokotra (ph) around 350
kilometers from the Yemeni coast with more than 1,000 families there evacuated.
The storm is expected to hit Yemeni mainland early Tuesday local time.
It is less than a week until Myanmar goes to the polls in what will be a landmark election with Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party expected to
perform well. The Nobel Peace Laureate have warned voters not to let issues of religion dominate the election. And the UN secretary general has
expressed concern about religious tension in Myanmar.
CNN's Ivan Watson is there.
IVAN WATSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: A street party for the Full Moon Festival which, up until a few years ago, was one of the world's
most isolated countries. On this Buddhist holiday called Tadiyuk (ph), it looks like the
whole city is out celebrating in the streets and praying in the temples.
Around 90 percent of this country is believed to be Buddhist, and yet some powerful voices here insist Myanmar's most popular religion is in
Who is threatening Buddism in this country?
Muslims, says U Wirathu a radical Buddhist monk who leads a group called the Committee for the Protection of Nationality and Religion.
U WIRATHU, COMMITTEE FOR THE PROTECTION OF NATIONALITY AND RELIGION (through translator): Muslims threaten Buddhism through marriage
convergence and they take many wives and have many children. Their population grows and it threatens us. And they are violent.
WATSON: Muslims only make up an estimated 4 percent of the population, and yet U Wirathu is calling for a boycott of Muslim-owned
businesses in Myanmar.
Critics call this hate speech, and some accuse U Wirathu of inciting violence.
This is what happened two years ago in the central town of Mutila (ph) when a dispute in the market between Muslims and Buddhists exploded, days
of intercommunal violence left scores of people dead.
Amid the killing, this Buddhist monastery became a sanctuary. For days, the monks here sheltered more than 900 Muslims. The abbot tells me
he protected them from a machete wielding mob at the monastery gates.
"This is all political, he says. "There are actually no problems between the religious communities. But it has been influenced by political
Seated next to him, leaders of the town's Muslim community who say the anti-Muslim boycott has pushed many Muslim families out of this town.
It's been two years since violence here claimed dozens of lives, and as you can see, mosques like this one are still broken and looted, a symbol
of the discrimination that the Muslim minority in this community say they face in modern day Myanmar.
Of the 12 mosques that once operated here, more than half are still in ruins or have been boarded up by the town's authorities. Due to
overcrowding, the town's remaining Muslims pray in shifts at one of the few mosques still
functioning here. The mosques now protected by razor wire.
There is still tension.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, of course, of course.
WATSON: And how do you feel as a Muslim?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, it's still uncomfortable.
WATSON: The monastery where U Wirathu teaches his anti-Muslim rhetoric
is decorated with Islamophobic propaganda, a message of hatred and intolerance against an entire religious community that is being passed on
to future generations.
Ivan Watson, CNN, Maqtila (ph), Myanmar.
ANDERSON: All right. And stay with us more on that.
Let's get back to our top story tonight, and a stunning comeback by Turkey's AK Party's at the polls after June elections. You may remember,
we saw its 13-year of single party rule broken.
Well, this Sunday's rerun gave the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party almost 50 percent of the vote and enough predicted seats to govern
Well, it also brought his own efforts to strengthen his powers back into focus in what is now a bitterly divided country.
For more on what this means for Mr. Erdogan and for Turkey, let's bring in
journalist Asli Aydintasbas. She's in Istanbul, a city home to many of Mr. Erdogan's staunchest secular and pro-western critics.
You I know were initially shocked by the result. Why?
ASLI AYDINTASBAS, JOURNALIST: Hi, Becky.
Yes, I am shocked, indeed. It superseded anybody's expectation or even
imagination. We're talking about a 20 percent increase in AKP votes in five
months. We've had elections on June 7. AKP was down to 40 percent, now it's at
49 percent. So it's pretty impressive, I guess.
ANDERSON: Was it that the AK did so well, or the opposition didn't?
AYDINTASBAS: It's both.
AKP was able to get -- well, the Kurdish war started in the meantime, Turkey's war with the PKK, peace talks have collapsed. So, there is this
nationalist fervor in the air in any case, so AKP was able to be accused of that, sort of gained some nationalist Turkish votes from Turkish heartland,
Sunni conservative voters.
On top, I think they got some Kurdish votes because there is a good middle -- a number of middle class Kurds who were unhappy with the PKK
because of the resumption of hostilities.
So, this is pretty much oh my god I have complaints about Erdogan, but I don't want the country to fall apart kind of sense of inciting.
[11:35:18] ANDERSON: As in the months since the last vote have seen, as you have rightly pointed out, a worsening situation when it comes to the
Kurdish issue. A cease fire with the PKK crumbles in July leading to a surge in violence between Turkish security officers and Kurdish militants.
Ahead of the pro-Kurdish people's party, Democracy Party, which came third in the vote, had this to say about the current climate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SELAHATTIN DEMIRTAS, KURDISH POLITICIAN, HDP LEADER (through translator): The Turkish people do not celebrate the results of the
election cheerfully, although a political party has received almost 50 percent of the votes. Why? Because a significant number of the people are
living in fear. Everybody is uneasy over how far the ruling party can go.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: I know it's very loud behind you this evening, but we can still hear you with the call to prayer. Clearly, though, and I'm alluding
to what was just said there, not everybody is uneasy. Isn't this a vote which is a mandate from the electorate to take this tough stance against
Kurdish groups even further?
AYDINTASBAS: Well, Erdogan has gotten -- or the AKP government, has gotten 50 percent of the vote, but they have the other 50 percent on the
other side. So I think the responsible thing would be to have a more inclusive
policy, basically 50 percent liking you is one thing, but 50 percent being against you is something quite potentially explosive.
So I think we saw this in Dovutoglus' speech last night. He talks about sowing seeds of love and being inclusive and embracing everybody, but
what matters is what Erdogan is going to say, Turkey's strong man in many ways, and his tone will decide the course for the next term. But I think
that Erdogan really wants to push for a super executive presidency, a constitutional change, and for that they do need to be a bit more
The Kurdish issue is not going to go away. This does not change the fact that the pro-Kurdish party, the People's Democratic Party, has over 70
percent of the vote in the eastern parts of Turkey, overwhelming majority. They don't have 100 percent of the vote, they don't have 80 percent vote
they had in (inaudible), but they have 71 percent.
So I think being able to rule in peace, you would need some sort of buy-in from the population that you want to rule over. I do think that
both the economic -- macroeconomic dynamics and the fact that Turkey is not a very homogeneous society is going to force AKP to be more compromising.
I hope -- this is wishful thinking, but I think that this will -- things will work n that direction over the
ANDERSON: OK. And we're going to talk the economy in a moment but we've been talking security. And indeed Syria a massive issue in the
spillover in this campaign. I want to bring our viewers back to one of the most shocking moments of campaign season and the deadliest in Turkey's
An ISIS suicide bombing that killed 300 people, an attack that brought serious war to the very heart of the Turkish capital. It also pitched the
policy on Syria and ISIS into the spotlight. Do you think we will see a change with a newly, reinvigorated AKP, and possibly as you pointed out a
much empowered Erdogan in the future?
AYDINTASBAS: It's hard to say. The bombings in a strange way hurt HDP, although they were the victim of not one, not two, but three bombing
attacks by ISIS militants inside Turkey. And they lost, as you know, 100 people in Ankara incident -- terror attack.
But somehow for the voters, this was not enough reason to vote for them. In fact, it scared voters away from HDP, sort of their associating
them with violence, although they did not cause it, they were on the receiving end, nonetheless, it was all like too chaotic for at least 2.5
percent of the voter that this is the number of votes they lost, a million votes they lost.
But I think that, yes, for a new constitution the government, and specifically the president, will have to be more compromising and
inclusive. I don't expect anything over the next month or two, but over the -- come later in the winter, I do think we're going to see -- have to
see a resumption in the peace talks with Abdullah (inaudible) present PKK leader. There's no other way Turkey can overcome the hurdles and the fault
lines that are plaguing our neighbors right now.
ANDERSON: Yeah, a very polarized country in a very difficult region. All right, thank you for that.
Meanwhile, the markets gave a bit thumbs up to the AKP win. Stocks soared in Monday's trading, and the Turkish lira rose, all signs that
investors, it seems are hopeful about an end to months of stability.
I've got Amir Daftari with me. He's been looking at the -- Amir, swift market reaction.
AMIR DAFTARI, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, a real feel-good
factor not only for the AK Party, but for the investors as well. As you say markets rallied, but there are some big, big economic challenges that
still lie ahead.
Let's take a look.
RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): They decided in favor of stability. I hope outcome will be good for our people
and our country.
DAFTARI: A surprise vote for Turkey's ruling party that has brought a sigh of relief for investors.
The sweeping victory of President Erdogan's AK Party has ended months of uncertainty. The Turkish lira jumped against the dollar, Istanbul's
main index up by a similar amount, with one of the largest lenders gaining as much as 8 percent.
Yet, many of the economic issues which caused voters to back opposition parties in June's elections will remain.
CENGIC AKTAR, PROFESSOR: Whether Mr. Erdogan will drop his dreams of a new regime, presidential regime without checks nor balances, how they
will tackle the Kurdish issue, how they will tackle the economic problems - - because Turkey is at the end of the road.
DAFTARI: The economy was seen for the key reason behind Mr. Erdogan's rise to power and his ability to hold on to it. But as political reform
stalled, so did the economy.
Growth has slowed from close to 9 percent at the start of the decade to a forecast 3.5 percent this year.
Consumers confidence is flat, there is high inflation and rising unemployment. Throw into the mix deep social divisions, security concerns
over ISIS and Kurdish rebels, and a mounting refugee crisis. So despite the market gains on the back of Monday's victory, some analysts believe you
have to be a brave investor to bet big on Turkey, at least for now.
DAFTARI: So, despite that sigh of relief, there's still a lot there that needs to be taken care of. Can President Erdogan and the AK Party
return to those economic heydays? We'll have to wait and see.
ANDERSON: Amir Daftari on the story. Amir, thank you.
Live from Abu Dhabi, this is Connect the World. Coming up, we hear from Iran's deputy oil minister as the country prepares for the lifting of
sanctions. A very short break. Back after this.
[08:46:54] ANDERSON: All right, you're back with us.
Iran has started shutting down its nuclear centrifuges. Ali Akbar Selahi (ph), Iran's nuclear chief, confirmed the move while on a visit to
Tokyo on Monday, according to Japanese media.
The centrifuges are used to enrich uranium and Tehran agreed to cut back on them in exchange for sanctions relief. This all as part of the
nuclear deal reached in July.
Well, let's tae you straight to Tehran now. Our emerging markets editor John Defterios is there for you this evening.
When do Iranians expect sanctions to be lifted? And does that square up with the expectations of world powers, John?
JOHN DEFTERIOS, EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: Well, Becky, in fact there is domestic pressure to get a deal done. And in fact, President Hassan
Rouhani was suggesting that he thinks that they should have the sanctions lifted by December 15 after the progress and the words that you heard from
Tokyo. And also because of the book closing on the IAEA work on the past military capabilities when it comes to nuclear technology for Iran.
Now the deputy oil minister is also a member of the foreign affairs ministry, Amir Zamaninia suggested the same thing. And he said, John, it
really boils down to basically a checklist and how much access Iran is willing to give to the IAEA going forward.
But we're seeing an economic weakness towards the end of 2015, Becky, and that's why there is so much pressure to get a deal done. The IMF is
suggesting Iran will just grow 0.6 percent this year, perhaps even tailing off into recession in Q1 of 2016.
It's worth remembering, many people forget after the euphoria of July 14, this economy lost 7.5 percent in the last two years and average income
has dropped by 20 percent, better than $2,000 per person.
So, Iran is very eager to see a deal happen, but members of the P5+1 are suggesting there's pressure from Iran's side, but realistically it
could take until February or March to see the sanctions lifted going forward.
ANDERSON: Is there pressure on the petroleum ministry and government to see tangible benefits from this July 14 agreement?
DEFTERIOS: Yeah, in fact, in the last 24 hours, the petroleum minister, Bijon Zaganei (ph) the petroleum minister, Becky, says he has a
gameplan to put forward to the OPEC members at the December 4 meeting that's taking place in Vienna.
500,000 barrels a day immediately, once the sanctions are lifted, that's the caveat. And then another million barrels a day between of March
2016 and December of 2016.
Why is that important? That would take Iran back up to its pre- sanctions level of 4.2 million barrels a day, a sense of national pride, but also
sending the signal that Iran is back, that revenues will pick up and so will economic growth.
But I asked the deputy oil minister, isn't it important for Iran to manage global expectations, but also expectations here at home as well.
Let's take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AMIR ZAMANINIA, DEPUTY OIL MINISTER: We are not very good in our public relations. I mean, oil industry is not good in public relations.
And we have not been good in, using your term, managing popular expectation of the oil business
to deliver after the sanctions. That is something that we need to put some energy and some timing to it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[11:50:11] DEFTERIOS: Very candid response by Amir Zamaninia, the deputy oil minister, and again a member of the ministry of foreign affairs.
And he also confirmed today, Becky, something you and I talked about in the last few days, the integrated petroleum contract, a very technical term,
but it represents $185 billion worth of oil and gas contracts to open up to the outside world. He's suggesting that final blueprint will be done
November 26 and 27. And they'll release it here in Tehran.
The world oil and gas community is watching very carefully to see the terms of that contract to see if they're more generous than they originally
expected here in Tehran.
ANDERSON: Yeah, there is a real sense of almost the wild west, isn't there out there, for a lot of these international oil and gas companies.
As you rightly point out, there will be lots of eyes all over those contracts.
All right, there are, John, fresh signs of increased tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Here's what sounded like a warning from Iran's deputy foreign minister to the Saudis. And I quote, do not test the patience of the Islamic
Republic of Iran and rather focus on your responsibility over the tragedy of Mina." He was responding to a comment from the Saudi foreign ministry
encouraging Iran to use sanctions relief to develop its economy rather than for, quote, aggressive purposes.
You are in Tehran, what is the view from there, John?
DEFTERIOS: Well, in fact, Becky, in the last 24 hours this, too, has boiled right up to the surface and there's a direct reason for it. Dadel
al-Jubeir (ph), who is the foreign of Saudi Arabia, has been hammering away at Iran ever since the Vienna talks. And in fact five days before
suggesting that Iran is still meddling in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and particularly in Yemen where the kingdom is at war right now.
And that's why it finally prompted a response by the foreign ministry today and the deputy foreign minister even in an op-ed in the local paper
suggesting that indeed the kingdom is testing the patience of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and then going a step further, Becky, suggesting they may
pull out of the Syrian talks because they find Saudi Arabia acting in a very destructive way.
So, this is part of that to and for at the very end of the process here in Iran, and Iran starts to open up, the hard-liners come in and say
maybe we should take a step back. The moderates want to proceed. If they proceed it will open up this economy, open up the political dialogue to the
west, and even the supreme leader was suggesting that perhaps the dialogue, the bilateral dialogue between the United States and Iran perhaps shouldn't
proceed under these sort of terms.
But the economy is opening up, Becky, just a small sign a Kentucky Fried Chicken opened up in Northern Tehran today, and it was spreading all
over social media this evening.
It's a significant change taking place on the ground, but they need a deal done and these sanctions lifted.
ANDERSON: My colleague John Defterios out of Tehran for you this evening. Thank you, John.
Live from Abu Dhabi, this is Connect the World with me, Becky Anderson. Coming up, we've all said something we probably shouldn't have
done at work, haven't we. But nearly 30 years ago, this man misspoke while doing his job and helped bring down the Berlin Wall.
We'll explain after this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
[11:55:36] RONALD REAGAN, 40ST PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Your Parting Shots tonight.
It wasn't grand speeches from America or Soviet leaders that brought down the Berlin Wall in the end, it was a misspoken answer by a government
official from East Germany.
Gunter Schabowski passed away over the weekend at the age of 86 in Berlin, the city he helped reunite.
You're seeing him now. Your Parting Shots tonight, we look back at how he became an unlikely hero of the Cold War.
At a news conference on November 9, 1989 to announce travel reforms for passing through the Berlin Wall, a reporter asked Schabowski when they
come into effect. His bumbling response rewrote history saying, quote, "it will come into, as far as I know it -- it is immediately without delay."
He wasn't meant to say that. But Berliners from east and west jumped at his words. Crowds rushed to the wall, so many that the guards were forced
to open the barriers ushering in the end of the physical divide that symbolized the Cold War all because of 14 accidental words.
I'm Becky Anderson, that was Connect the World from the team here and those working with us around the world. Thank you for watching. CNN
continues after this short break. Good night.