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Russia Plane Crash Kills 224 People; Can't Rule Out Terrorism In Russian Plane Crash; U.S. Intel Says No Evidence Of Missile; No Direct Evidence Of Terrorism In Crash; Investigators To Examine Black Boxes; Russia Mourns Victims Of Tragedy; Marco Rubio Surges In New Poll; Russia Launching Investigation Into Crash; The 2016 Republican Race. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired November 02, 2015 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Pamela Brown in for Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Atlanta, 6:00 p.m. in London and 8:00 p.m. in Cairo. Wherever you are watching from around the world, thanks for joining us.

ANNOUNCER: This CNN breaking news.

BROWN: And we start with the breaking news of the crash of a Russian passenger plane in Egypt that killed 224, mostly Russian, tourists. Airline officials insist the plane broke up at altitude but are unsure what could have caused it. The U.S. intelligence community says they aren't so sure -- one thing -- they're sure of one thing and that is that there is no evidence, at this point, that a missile brought down the flight. And we've heard this from the head of the U.S. National Intelligence Agency. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES CLAPPER, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Though we don't have any direct evidence of any terrorist involvement, yet. ISIL, in a tweet, claimed responsibility for it, and there is a very aggressive ISIL chapter in the Sinai. But we really don't know and I think once the black boxes have been analyzed in which safe recovered, then perhaps we'll know more.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Joining me now to discuss from Cairo, Egypt is CNN Senior International Correspondent Arwa Damon and from Washington, CNN Justice Reporter Evan Perez.

Evan, starting with you, what is leading intelligence officials to say that there was no missile?

EVAN PEREZ, CNN JUSTICE REPORTER: Well, Pamela, at this point, you know, they have a -- quite a bit of information already. They have the passenger manifests that have been provided to U.S. intelligence agencies to look through, to run through their databases. They've looked at radar and satellite imagines, photographs from the crash scene. And they've also looked at communications, things like signal (ph) intelligence agencies that look to basically to see -- in case of terrorist activity, there usually is some kind of chatter that they hear. None of that has turned up yet.

So, again, it's very early in the process but what we know right now or what intelligence agencies tell us, at this point, is that there's no indication of a terrorist activity that could have brought this down or even a missile. I think Jim Clapper also mentioned in his remarks this morning that there's no indication that ISIS even has the capability, the type of missile that could bring down an aircraft at that altitude -- Pamela.

BROWN: Yes, 30,000 feet. It's interesting, the disparity, though, between U.S. officials and airline officials.

Arwa, where does the investigation standing there?

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, both Russian and Egyptian teams have been on the ground. The Russians arriving on Saturday and then going out to the crash site on Sunday.

Now, one of the Russian state news agencies quoting a Russian investigator here in Egypt saying that as of now, all the parts that they have tested, none of them have tested positive for any sort of explosives. And both the Russian and Egyptian authorities were very quick to come out and dismiss any sort of claims made by ISIS affiliates that they shot down the plane as well.

One Russian -- Egyptian, sorry, military source telling us that the groups that operate in the area have a maximum capacity using their shoulder fired surface to air missiles to bring down an aircraft at around 15,000 to 16,000 feet, so well below the 30,000-31,000 feet that this Russian plane was flying.

Now, a medical source who has been dealing with the recovery of the bodies said that he saw 175 of them, and 60 to 70 percent of them were intact, and that none of them had significant burn marks. So, what we have right now is a lot of the different pieces of information, everyone really trying to put the puzzle together.

But what's going to be very vital, at this stage, is retrieving the data from those two black boxes. When that's going to happen, we're not entirely sure, at this stage. But from what we know, they have not been that severely damaged, so hopefully experts will be able to extract that information fairly quickly.

But both the Russians and the Egyptians, at this stage, not entirely ruling out terrorism but significantly down playing the fact that that may have actually been what is behind this.

BROWN: Well, it's interesting though because at least one of the officials came out and said, we are excluding human error and technical issues. Do you know how they were able to reach that conclusion so quickly?

DAMON: And, you know, a lot of experts are quite surprised by some of the initial statements that are coming out so conclusively because there are so many missing pieces in all of this. The plane passed its checks before taking off. The pilot did not put out any sort of distress call before it, quite simply, disappeared off the radar.

[13:05:03] The metro jet airliner itself is trying to say, look, our plane was safe to fly and they believe it was some sort of, in their words, certain influence. Whether it was technical or mechanical, they're not elaborating upon that. But they are also trying to say that, no, it wasn't pilot error. Chances that a plane just disintegrates in the sky on its own, phenomenally slim. And that's why this is all such a mystery, at this stage -- Pam.

BROWN: Especially during what's supposed to be the safest part of the flight. Arwa Damon, Evan Perez, thank you so much.

And let's get more on the crash. Investigation promo own (ph) experts, Peter Goelz is a CNN Aviation Analyst and former NTSB managing director, Les Abend, CNN Aviation Analyst, a 777 pilot and contributor editor of "Flying Magazine" and Paul Cruikshank CNN Terrorism Analyst.

First to you, Paul, what are you hearing about whether or not this could have been an act of terrorism? And does ISIS even have the capability to bring down a plane in flight? There's been a lot of doubts that they do.

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Pam, there is increasing skepticism that this is any kind of terrorist attack. There was that claim made by ISIS in the Sanai Peninsula on Saturday. A tweet was sent out. But ISIS doesn't have a particularly good track record on telling the truth. And they don't have the kind of missiles to hit an airplane at 30,000 feet either. Their manpowers go up to about 15,000 or 16,000 feet as Arwa was reporting.

And the very important reporting from Arwa as well that, so far, no explosive residue has been found on the wreckage which suggests that, perhaps, it wasn't any kind of bomb that somebody managed to smuggle onboard. That leaves sabotage as the only kind of terrorism scenario. But it seems much more likely this was some sort of catastrophic structural failure, not terrorism, at this point.

BROWN: And, Peter, to you now. What is the condition of the bodies or wreckage tell us about the crash? Because that could be very telling, I imagine.

PETER GOELZ, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, once they've done the testing for explosive residue, and a bomb or a missile will leave very clear marks, then they've got to look at the metal of the aircraft to see how did it separate? And what they want to do is go to the first pieces off the plane. If the tail separated and it was located further back along the flight path from the main wreckage field that's where they want to focus. They want to see why that tail separated. Was it a sudden departure? Was there fatigue cracks? But they'll get to the bottom of this through hard investigative work.

BROWN: And there's a lot more work to be done. We don't even know the results from the black boxes. But, yet, Les, at a news conference this morning, airline officials said they've excluded technical problems or human error. How can they possibly be ruling this out before examining all that flight data?

LES ABEND, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: I agree, they can't. And I think some things actually got lost in translation. But that being said, I'm a little disappointed that this investigation is not being organized such that you're disseminating information from one source. And this is a pretty common thing. We've experienced that, you know, in various reportings that we've done with the aviation accidents.

But what disturbs me is, looking at the flight radar 24 data, assuming that it's accurate enough, the company claims that it's real time. There was a lot of discrepancies between air speeds, both vertical speed and forward ground speed, in addition to altitudes that just don't make sense to me.

I looked at the -- at part of the time period that basically the airplane came out of the sky. So, it's very curious to me. And I think anything, as we have said along, is it's very preliminary to determine, even the fact that this airplane broke up in flight.

I mean, it sure looks like that. I think Peter will back us up with his experience. But even that, we're not totally sure about, at this point in time. But if it did indeed break up in flight, there are various things that could cause that to happen, including things like exceeding the structural parameters of that aircraft. So, I --

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: And what else? Just because we keep hearing this could be an external event, what else other than surface to air missile?

ABEND: Well, you know, it was alluded to that there's a possibility, although it doesn't look like it, at this point, that a -- some sort of explosive device within luggage, perhaps a pressure bulkhead let loose. It's hard to say. Or the aircraft, for some reason, in what we call an aerodynamic stall. But, usually, that's not a radical situation to recover from. You normally just have to reduce your angle of attack, lower your nose. And it does take some altitude to recover from, unless they were in a bad configuration, developed a spin situation. It's really hard to say.

[13:10:12] The clues, most important clues, are going to come from that cockpit voice recorder and from that digital flight data recorder, as I'm sure Peter will agree with me.

BROWN: Yes. And, Peter, on that note, how long before we get any information from those devices and what will they tell us?

GOELZ: Well, I think they're starting to get the information right now. It shouldn't take very long. Both of the boxes look to be in relatively good condition. If they -- if the plane did break apart at altitude, that's not surprising. The question is, if it was a sudden catastrophic event, you might not have anything on the boxes. The data the recorder, if it was a pressure bulkhead release, as Captain Abend said, there might not be any information that leads up to that.

And certainly, if it was a sudden event, the pilots, the voice recorder might have been cut off immediately. I think the -- I think the solution, the solving of this accident, is going to be in the middle and that's where the attention ought to be spent. But we should get the box information back within the next 24 hours.

BROWN: And adding to that point, there were no distress calls, we have learned, which also kind of adds to the mystery. I'm curious, Les, what your perspective is on the fact that this plane went down during what is supposed to be the safest part of the flight, after takeoff. Usually, it's -- we know that takeoff and landing are, typically, the most risky. So, how unusual is it that a plane would go down at that the time of the flight?

ABEND: Pamela, that's correct. We call that a low -- the cruise environment is a low-stress environment is what we call it. But, you know, the crew could have been involved with a -- with troubleshooting or going through a checklist on an abnormality or some sort of emergency.

And, you know, our axiom is aviate, navigate and communicate. So, we have to take care of ourselves and our people first, and then we can communicate what our problem is. And it's -- they may not have known exactly what the problem was, depending upon the instrumentation, whether there was some sort of enunciation in the cockpit that said they had a problem. So, there's various things.

But you're right, it is unusual. Cruise altitude is normally enough time to handle most emergencies.

BROWN: A lot to learn still. Paul, Peter, Les, thank you so much.

And Russia, of course, is mourning the victims of this tragedy. We'll go live to St. Petersburg with the latest on the investigation into this disaster.

Plus, we'll turn to politics. The new poll shows Marco Rubio's performance in the last debate seems to be paying dividends. And he's not the only one celebrating. Ahead, the winners and losers.

[13:12:56]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:16:58] BROWN: Back to our top story this morning, the investigation into the crash of a Russian passenger jet in Egypt that killed 224 people. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his prime minister to launch the government's own investigation into the crash. And joining me now for more on this from St. Petersburg, Russia, where that plane was headed, is CNN's senior international correspondent Matthew Chance.

The Kremlin says it cannot rule out terrorism, Matthew, but with Russia's involvement in Syria, what would the reaction be there among the Russian people if, in fact, this does turn out to be a terrorist act.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I mean, I think it's something that the Russian government would dread the idea that this is some kind of blowback, some kind of retribution for the air strikes that Russia is carrying out inside Syria, primarily against, you know, ISIS and other rebel groups there, of course. But they're saying they're not ruling that out, but it's something the investigators are going to have to reach a conclusion about.

In terms of what impact it will have. Well, I mean the idea that ordinary Russians would be paying the price for that Kremlin policy, that policy of intervention in Syria, may have political consequences for Vladimir Putin. He's an immensely popular politician. And that may be eroded if it comes about that, you know, people have been killed as a result of his intervention in Syria.

But we're kind of jumping the gun a little bit in the sense that no one is ruling out any possibility at this point. We're at the very start of the investigation. Teams on the ground in Sinai getting together bits of the fuselage, bringing back forensic evidence here to Russia and to other places as well, to try and build a picture of what happened to this metro jet flight with 224 people on board.

You can see behind me, at the moment the focus is very much on grief and on mourning. Even three days after the event, people are coming here in large numbers to Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg to pay their respects, to lay flowers and to light candles for the dead. So it's still very much in the -- in the sort of mode of national tragedy at the moment. Although, I have to say, people are starting to ask questions. Was it terrorism or was it technical failure that caused so many Russians to lose their lives?

BROWN: And everyone wants those questions answered so soon, but it does take a while, as you point out. We know the Russian government is launching its own separate investigation. What is that going to be focusing on?

CHANCE: Well, I mean, first and foremost I think they're going to be looking at the -- the carriers, Metro Jet. It's a small carrier. It's -- it's not one of Russian's biggest airlines. The fleet of aircraft that they use, this Airbus A-321, is a relatively old aircraft, nearly 20 years old. It has had two previous owners before it came into the possession of Metro Jet. Back in 2001, it had the accident as well. A sort of tail hit when it took off from a runway when it belonged to another airline. When it belonged to Middle Eastern Airlines. That was repaired. But, you know, they're going to be looking at the safety procedures on that airline. They're going to be looking at whether the maintenance situation was up to standard.

[13:20:11] And already there's been a press conference by senior management of Metro Jet to say, look, they don't believe it was maintenance or technical problems that could have been responsible for such a catastrophic end, a catastrophic failure, for that flight in the skies over Sinai. So already the company itself is saying we don't believe it was necessarily a maintenance problem that was to blame.

BROWN: And the question there is, how are they able to reach that conclusion so quickly.

Thank you so much, Matthew Chance, there in St. Petersburg.

And turning to politic now. The new Bush slogan is "Jeb can fix it." But the question remains, can he fix his own campaign to gain more traction. We'll talk about his attempt to salvage his presidential dream, up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:25:15] BROWN: Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush is taking questions right now from the media in Winter Park, Florida. Let's listen in.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: With a cushy job. There's a lot that can be done to change the culture in Washington and I think there's a yearning for it across this country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

BUSH: Debate advice. Just be who I am. I don't know about "The New York Times." I don't know.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well that piece, that they had last Sunday, how your dad's very involved in your campaign (INAUDIBLE) --

BUSH: No, no, no, my dad's 91 years old.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know, but he's watching and he's monitoring --

BUSH: He loves me. He's watching. He's 91. He's --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What is he saying to you after these debates?

BUSH: He -- he loves me.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What's he saying --

BUSH: That's what he says. I just -- just promise you, it's not a -- it's not a --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Should the rules change for the debates, and should they --

BUSH: They should --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) too silly in the last one.

BUSH: Whatever the rules are, they should keep to them. That's -- that's all I think the candidates want. The rules were established and they lost control over the entire process last time. The -- the suggestion that this was all going to be about the economy and the debt and the big challenges Americans face, they didn't fulfill that. So my hope is the next debate will be focused on the issues that really matter to folks.

BROWN: Jeb Bush taking questions there just as new poll numbers into CNN show Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump maintaining his big lead in the key primary state in New Hampshire. The Monmouth University poll has Trump with 26 percent of the support, Ben Carson is second with 16 percent, followed by Marco Rubio, up sharply at 13 percent.

I want to bring in CNN political commentators Maria Cardona and Amanda Carpenter to talk about this.

Great to have you both on.

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Thanks, Pam.

BROWN: Maria, first to you. What's your reaction here to Trump's ability to maintain his frontrunner status?

CARDONA: Well, it's not surprising, Pam. You know, last week's debate really didn't do anything, I thought, to really challenge what the tiers were. We saw that certain candidates, like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had some breakout moments, and we actually see that Marco Rubio's numbers are higher than they were earlier. But in general, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, even though they weren't as front and center as they were in the last two debates, really didn't do anything to debilitate their frontrunner status. And so I don't think that it change anything overall, which is a big, big problem, and I think challenge for those Republicans who still believe that they need a huge breakout moment. I don't know if that's going to come in the next debates. But, for example, somebody like Jeb Bush, his numbers didn't move, and so I think that he's probably the one in the biggest trouble right now.

BROWN: Yes, his numbers stayed stagnant.

CARDONA: Yes.

BROWN: But you mentioned Marco Rubio, whose numbers have shot up, a 9 percent jump since September. What do you think about this? Do you think his debate performance could be behind this surge, Amanda?

AMANDA CARPENTER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Clearly. I think Marco Rubio got a bump in New Hampshire as a result. But the biggest story of this poll is the competition that's still going on between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush went down in the polls despite spending $6 million in the granite state. That money is bringing the polls down instead of going up. And so now we're seeing the re-re-re-branding of Jeb Bush. We were told today that his new slogan is going to be "fix it," which just sounds more like an advertisement for a plumber than someone running for president. So I don't think the rebranding is going to work. The problem is the candidate and he has no overarching cause for his candidacy and no new slogan can dress that up.

BROWN: Right. And he's on -- on tour right now in Florida talking about this new slogan which, by the way, refers to the country's problems, not his own campaign's problem.

CARDONA: Yes.

BROWN: But we heard from him a moment ago. Let's take a listen to what he said to voters earlier this morning in Tampa.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm running this campaign on my own terms. And let me tell you something, when the dust clears, and the delegates are counted, we are going to win this campaign.

I will be true to myself -- optimistic and inclusive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So there you heard it, Maria. We talk about his struggling campaign, all these new slogans, but he sounds like he's still in this to win it.

CARDONA: Well, he can't really say anything else other than that, Pam. You have so many donors that have invested millions of dollar in his campaign that are panicking right now. But I really don't see what his path is at the moment. Yes, there is still time to turn it around, but I don't see how he does it. his slogan is terrible. I don't know who thought that up because what you think when you see that is, he means his campaign, right? He's got to fix his campaign before he can think about fixing the country's problems.

[13:29:46] I think his problem is twofold. He has double baggage. The e baggage of his last two Bush presidencies, which have been failures, and he shares that last name, and the last two failed Republican presidential candidates, who were, like him, establishment. It was their turn. And now you have angry Republican voters who want to try something new, and he is not something new.

BROWN: Clearly seems to be an anti-establishment year.