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Jeb Bush Launches "Jeb Can Fix It" Campaign; Specific Debate Demands from GOP Campaigns Revealed; Did ISIS Bring Down Russian Passenger Plane; Yazidis Fight Back Against ISIS; Look Back at 2000 Election, Bush v. Gore. Aired 1:30-2p ET

Aired November 02, 2015 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:30:00] MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: And he shares that last name. And the last two failed Republican presidential candidates who were like him, establishment, and it was their turn, and now you have angry Republican voters who want to try something new, and he is not something new.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: And clearly seems to be anti-establishment year.

Switching gears, this year, Amanda, the Republican campaigns held an emergency meeting last night to discuss overhauling the upcoming debates after two hours, and considerable disagreement. This is what they agreed to, two-hour time limit, and equal speaking time for each candidate, and 30 seconds for the opening and closing statements. What is your biggest takeaway from the meeting last night, and the new demands?

AMANDA CARPENTER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I have a huge problem with the second demand. Listen, you have five or six candidates who are polling one percent of less. It's my feeling that they don't deserve equal speaking time as some of the other higher- tier candidates. The field needs to winnow, which is probably the bigger problem going on, on the debate stage. But moreover, you are having these lower-tier candidates using the excuse of a bad CBNC to try to get more time. I understand why the candidates want opening and closing statements, but the debate is a time for questions. They can make speeches unchallenged all of the time on the stump, but we need to get to a place where most of the debating is between the candidates and not the candidates and the moderators. That is the problem last debate, because some conservatives were happy with the way that the CNN/Republican debate went. So we need to revert back to more of that model, and not in the director of the CNBC model going forward.

BROWN: Maria, what's your take?

CARDONA: Yes, I agree. What you have is viewers who are looking at these Republican presidential candidates who want to be seen as leaders of the free world, and they can't handle, quote, unquote, "difficult questions" from the moderators. They should have taken those questions that they thought were unfair, and flipped them and pivoted to what they wanted to talk about. Marco Rubio was the one who did it the best, and Ted Cruz mentioned it as well, as well as bashing the mainstream media, which is their go-to move. I don't think this is a strategy that is going to help them come the general election.

BROWN: And, Amanda, Maria, thank you for coming on and giving us your perspective. Appreciate it.

CARPENTER: Thanks.

CARDONA: Thank you, Pam.

BROWN: And another big story. What caused a Russian passenger plane out of the sky to kill everybody on board? When we come back, I will ask a terror expert whether the plane could have been shot down, and if so, who possesses the capability to do it. We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:37:46] BROWN: Two days after a Russian passenger jet crashed killing everybody on board, questions are swirling today on whether terrorist, namely ISIS, could be to blame. The plane went down in a remote area of the Sinai Peninsula where militants linked to ISIS are known to operate.

And I want to bring in CNN aviation correspondent, Richard Quest; and Michael Weiss, an expert on Russian affairs as well as ISIS.

Michael, who are the militants operating in this region and why is it such a dangerous area?

MICHAEL WEISS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, it is an ISIS affiliate. They pledged allegiance to ISIS, making them an ideological fellow travelers organization. But what's important to understand is outside of the terrain of the so-called caliphate, the affiliates abroad don't have the command and the control that ISIS exercises with, say, with respect to the militants in Raqqa and Mosul or other places. So they are casting their lot with ISIS, but it doesn't mean they're from the ISIS heartland.

That said, they have demonstrated a remarkable degree of sophistication and infallibility. There was an attack in July in Sinai where they killed several people of the Egyptian security forces and military. This involved anti-tank missiles. The Egyptians at the time say they fought these guys like a conventional army, not like a guerilla insurgency.

I say all this with an important caveat. They do not have or there is no evidence to date that they have an anti-aircraft system that could down a jet at 30,000.

BROWN: I just have to ask --

WEISS: You would need something like the BUK, yeah.

BROWN: And how do we know that? And the reason that I look at this and ask, because people are looking at the MH-18 in the Ukraine, and nobody knew that the rebels had the capability to bring down a plane at 30,000 feet. How do we know this?

WEISS: Well, the rebels didn't have that capability, but the Russians armed services did.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: They gave it to them.

WEISS: -- BUK anti-aircraft missiles. Gave it to the rebels. Actually, the evidence suggests that it was probably man and operated by Russian technicians.

Again, ISIS does not have that kind of capability. They have MANPADS, which is to say surface-to-air missiles. Paul Cruikshank mentioned it earlier. A lot of these have been confiscated in battles with Syria and Iraq. Some of them are Chinese-made. But they don't have the range to go after a plane at a 30,000 foot ceiling. It is not possible. They can attack helicopters or low-fly low-flying aircraft, but not a civilian airliner like that.

BROWN: We keep hearing that everything is on the table. No one is ruling out anything. Richard, there are multiple investigations under way into the cause of this crash. Where do they stand?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT & CNN HOST, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: It is confusing at the moment, because, strictly speaking, this investigation belongs to the Egyptians under international law, and they are the state of occurrence. And no doubt it is an Egyptian investigation. But of course, the state of operator was Russia, and most of the passengers were Russian. So obviously, Moscow has a huge interest and is accredited and part of the investigation.

Now where the black boxes are going to be decoded, downloaded and read, we don't know. That is slightly unusual at the moment. The Egyptians, I am guessing, are still deciding, firstly, if they have the capability, and if not, whether or not Russia should be given the boxes to download, or do you send them to one of the other institutions such as the BEA in Paris. It is a strange environment that we are in with this investigation because it is not immediately clear, Pam, who is leading it.

[13:40:36] BROWN: And we have seen already disagreements between officials of different countries. In fact, we heard an official with the airline say that they are excluding, you know, human error and technical issues. Were you surprised by that?

QUEST: Well, I was and I wasn't. When we listened to the translation, and clarified the translation, he said what one would expect him to say from the airline. But the truth be told, we could have no way of knowing at this point, unless he is privy to information that nobody else is, and we have been led to believe that, given that his airline is just about shutdown. He was basically talking his own book, as they say.

BROWN: And you raise a good point, because sometimes things do get lost in translation, and it can be misinterpreted -- QUEST: Yeah --

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: -- and we have seen it before with other -- yes, go ahead.

QUEST: The situation -- and I bow to Michael's knowledge in this in terms of the terrorism aspect. We are starting to get to the point where we can take off some highly sophisticated surface-to-air missile, a la MH17. Now the bomb aspect, as in Sharm el Sheikh, could that have been put on the plane, that's a very different question. And we don't have the evidence or forensic evidence released yet. And now we are getting to the highly politicized geopolitical situation where you have ISIS, and you have Egypt, and Russia, and then that is sort of the point for mere aviation experts, like myself, we start to get out of our depth.

BROWN: And quickly, Michael, ISIS has claimed responsibility over Twitter. How much credence do you put into that?

WEISS: Well, I wanted to say, if ISIS had managed to destroy a Russian commercial airliner with a surface-to-air missile, they would not have released it on Twitter, but they would have been releasing one of the operational videos of how they the did this. And I have seen no evidence that they did it. It is one of the major announcements to come out of ISIS since the beginning of the founding. And again, we have to take it with a pinch of salt.

You mentioned in the earlier segment, this plane, this jet 14 years ago suffered a malfunction or had some kind of damage done to the tail. The MetroJet, which acquired it, claimed they repaired it. Why is an airliner saying, oh, no technical difficulty or malfunction? Consider the insurance liability? Over 200 people who just lost their lives, and they want to make sure that there is a thorough investigation before the likelihood of what happened, which is to say, a terrible tragedy but one that was not caused by a human factor, took place. But again, we should not claim this is terrorism, because the evidence, if anything, in the last 48 hours, has all but ruled it out, I would say.

BROWN: And you are hope that, to your point, there are independent investigators looking at this, too.

Thank you, Michael and Richard. Appreciate it.

WEISS: Sure.

BROWN: ISIS has punished few groups as much as the Yazidis and now that group is trying to fight back. They are joining a campaign to push ISIS out of Iraq, but they face steep odds in the battle. An exclusive report from the front lines up next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:48:17] BROWN: In Iraq, Kurdish fighters are teaming up with Yazidi volunteers. A major offensive is under way as they try to drive ISIS out of Yazidi villages they've occupied around Mount Sinjar.

CNN's Nima Elbagir has been on the front lines with Kurdish fighters in this exclusive report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(SHOUTING)

NIMA ELBAGIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Yazidis Peshmerga fighters, volunteers, former soldiers and a handful of trained officers, look out over the ISIS front line.

(on camera): He's pointing out that, all along here, you can see the defensive ditches that have been dug. They come as close as that valley there. They mortar. They fire on us. They eventually retreat. It's pretty never ending.

(voice-over): This vantage point itself was, in the not too distant past, ISIS held.

(on camera): Just there, he said, you can see what they did to the Yazidis. The houses are completely destroyed. They slaughter all the families inside it. It really drives home how -- how visceral this was.

(voice-over): Deputy Commander Machal Kazidu (ph) is 66, a retired soldier, one of the few here with fighting experience.

(on camera): This is a fragment of skull that they found. This whole patch of ground is mass graves. They found 150 bodies, from children as young as 1-year-old all the way up to 80. It is, they say, just a reminder to them of what it is they're fighting for. They're fighting for their very survival.

[13:50:08] (voice-over): The massacre of thousands of Yazidi men, women and children by ISIS last year resonated around the world. Here in the foothills of the Sinjar Mountain, thousands of Yazidi volunteers are joining up to fight.

(SHOUTING)

ELBAGIR: Sinjar City and the mountain that looms over it is at the heart of the homeland of the Yazidi minority. It falls along a crucial supply route, linking ISIS crucial strongholds in Iraq and Syria.

When ISIS took the city in August last year, their intent was to drive the Yazidis to extinction. Those who managed to escape the ensuing massacre now shelter in tents on barren slopes overlooking their former homes. These are the families of the fighters standing guard down below. This is what they're fighting for.

(SHOUTING)

ELBAGIR: At the front, a poem is being recited. It speaks of lost honor, slaughtered wives and sisters, empty homes.

(SHOUTING)

ELBAGIR: It is meant to remind the soldiers of what's at stake. They tell us they know only too well this is a battle for their very existence.

Nima Elbagir, CNN, Mount Sinjar.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Powerful report there.

Still to come, one of the most contentious elections in U.S. history. It was George W. Bush versus Al Gore. It happened 15 years ago. We'll look back at the man who was calling the shots for Republicans behind the scenes. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:56:05] BROWN: Tonight, right here on CNN, a look back at the 2000 presidential election. It was George W. Bush versus Al Gore, the recounts and the Supreme Court. And those in the middle of it knew however it turned out they would be accused of stealing an election.

CNN chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, takes a revealing look behind the scenes at a man who was calling many of the shots, an adviser brought in by Republicans to steer the ship.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): A well- respected Tallahassee lobbyist with ties to Jeb Bush, and a long history in Republican politics, Max Stipanovich, became Katherine Harris' brain.

JOHN "MAX" STIPANOVICH, TALLAHASSEE LOBBYIST: I explain to her, you don't have any friends. We're going to be loathed by the media for the rest of our lives and through the lives of our grandchildren. That is not what is important today. We are doing to elect a president of the United States today, and that forget all of that other stuff.

BORGER: As Americans watched partisans watched it be duked out everyday the on TV, Max was plotting the Republican path to victory.

STIPANOVICH: I called the senior staff together and I said that we are not going to break any laws, but I want you to forget about the intent of the laws. We are going to bring in election in for a landing, and we're going fight them tooth and nail and house to house, and hand in hand, and we were going to be holding Florida unless they sent in the federal troops.

BORGER: He knew exactly what he had to do, stop recounting votes, and preserve Bush's election night lead, no matter how small.

STIPANOVICH: We actually believed the result was right. We said that George Bush has won this election, and it is our job to make it so, and we are going to rapidly as possible close off any option, any path that the could be followed that produces an end result other than that one. And people are going to watch this and be appalled. Oh, my god, the corrupt bastards, they stole the election. No, we won the election.

(SHOUTING)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Gloria Borger joins me now.

Just a fascinating look back at this time. From all the reporting you have done about this, 15 years later, are the Democrats over it?

BORGER: No.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: They are not over it. They lost the closest election in modern political history. Surprisingly, though, Pamela, they don't think that this election was stolen from them in any way, shape or form. They believe, as do many Republicans, actually, that I spoke with, that more people went to the polls with the intention of voting for Al Gore than George W. Bush, but of the votes that were counted, more people voted for George W. Bush. It's very hard in an election to count or recount intentions of voters, so when they went down to Florida, they knew in a way that they were trying to fix the unfixable. And they also knew that, in looking back, as I talked to them, one of them said to me, "We brought a knife to a gunfight." The Republicans were there to preserve a victory they believed they already had. The Democrats were trying to contest a victory, and that put them in a tough position. And the Republican team, as you just heard from Max Stipanovich, was pretty far out there and willing to do whatever it took. The Democrats just couldn't match them.

BROWN: Wow.

Gloria Borger, cannot wait to see this tonight.

BORGER: Thank you.

BROWN: You don't want to miss it. "Bush v. Gore, The Endless Election," it airs tonight, 9:00 p.m., only on CNN.

That's it for me.

For our international viewers, "Amanpour" is next. For our North American viewers, NEWSROOM with Brooke Baldwin starts

right now.

Thanks for being here with me.

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