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Ted Cruz Rivals Donald Trump in New Iowa Poll; Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet; Three Men Sought After Shooting at Black Lives Matter Protesters. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired November 24, 2015 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When I came back to Texas, grassroots supporters went and printed up baseball caps with Daffy Duck on them that said, "Wacko Bird."

[09:30:50]

And at the grassroots to this day, people make t-shirts saying they're a proud "Wacko Bird." And indeed my response publicly, I said, if standing for liberty and standing for the Constitution make you a wacko bird, then count me a proud wacko bird.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: So, let's talk about Ted Cruz and more. CNN political analyst and editor in chief of "The Daily Beast" John Avlon is here.

Good morning.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Carol. How are you?

Proud wacko bird, hey?

COSTELLO: Well, he's an outsider, and that plays into it, right, because a lot of Republicans don't like Senator John McCain.

AVLON: Well, unfortunately, that is true in terms of someone who's served his country honorably and was a POW. But let's take a look at this Iowa poll because it is fascinating. Look, Donald Trump's still at the top, but no question Ted Cruz is gaining on him. And this has been part of Ted Cruz's strategy for a long time. He's basically tried to be -- present himself as the most electable guy on the far right. And what's striking about this poll though is, you've got 66 percent of the Iowa caucus voters who say they're going to support Trump, Cruz or Carson. Now, among those, Cruz has the most government experience, one term in the Senate, so that's a real asset. But take a big step back and realize that Democrats have won Iowa four out of the last five times. So does this poll absolutely reflect caucus goers in Iowa? Reflect even the state of Iowa? Not necessarily. It does reflect the Republican Party whose base is moving further and further right.

COSTELLO: OK. So now that you've said that --

AVLON: Yes. COSTELLO: How much meaning should we really attach to this poll then?

AVLON: Look, we are heading into Thanksgiving break. Polls start having real meaning right now. And there are deeper dynamics that are clearly at work. When Donald Trump has been on the top of national polls more or less for a hundred days, you've got to take that seriously. Republicans need to take that seriously. The country needs to take that serious. And when that top tier has been basically occupied by Trump, Carson and now Ted Cruz, that's a serious message because that is a group of folks who are weighted far more to the right than the Republican Party at large and certainly the American people and even people in the state of Iowa.

COSTELLO: OK. So, supposedly, traditional Republicans are getting very nervous about Donald Trump.

AVLON: Uh-huh.

COSTELLO: Donald Trump recently tweeted this, "'Wall Street Journal' reports the GOP's getting ready to treat me unfairly. Big spending planned against me. That wasn't the deal." What does he mean by that?

AVLON: I have no idea. My ability to read Donald Trump's mind gets more and more distant with time and tweets. But clearly, I mean, "The Journal" and a lot of folks who represent a mainstream Republican tradition -- "The Journal" -- (INAUDIBLE) say "The Wall Street Journal" editorial board isn't plenty conservative. It is. But when they start raising real concerns about the actual viability of a candidate, or whether the plans they're proposing are actually practical or possible, folks better take notice. And it's not just, you know, Ted Cruz, you know, is not the most popular guy among the people who know him best in the U.S. Senate, and that's widely known and widely understood. But if "The Wall Street Journal" editorial board, if they're the latest ones to be pushed out in a feat (ph) of rhino hunting, then the Republican Party has even more soul searching to do than they thought they might have.

COSTELLO: OK, so let's say Trump does get the nomination and mainstream Republicans don't like that. What can they do?

AVLON: Well, I mean, they could have a 40 state loss. But you shouldn't underestimate the power of conservative populism in this country. And that's one of the many things he's tapping into. You know, the appeal of a strong man, which is something the founding fathers warned again, happens when people feel that their government is in effective and dysfunctional and that a lot of main street folks just start opting out of civic conversation because it seems too much like trouble. That creates a vacuum that the strong man tries to climb into. That's one of the dynamics that's leading Donald Trump right now. But that's a gut check we all need to confront, folks who vote in the primaries and then in the general election.

COSTELLO: All right, John Avlon, thanks for your insight.

AVLON: Thank you, Carol.

COSTELLO: Appreciate you stopping by.

Coming up in the NEWSROOM, the rhetoric heating up after a Russian jet is brought down. Up next, I'll talk to a former military pilot, a fighter pilot, about what he thinks happened in the skies over Syria.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:38:10] COSTELLO: The French president, Francois Hollande, minutes from his meeting with President Obama. You see the driveway's ready for him to pull in. While Hollande is working to build a strong coalition to fight ISIS, the downed Russian war plane is expected to dominate talks. Turkey says it shot that war plane -- that fighter jet down because it violated Turkish airspace despite 10 warnings in five minutes. Two Russian pilots were aboard that plane. Russian media says both men parachuted out of the aircraft. We do not know what happened to those pilots after that.

I want to bring in Justin Green. He's an aviation attorney and a former military pilot.

Welcome.

JUSTIN GREEN, AVIATION ATTORNEY: Thanks, Carol.

COSTELLO: OK, I want to put that video up again so people can see exactly what happened. This Russian fighter jet was flying at 19,000 feet. Turkey says it was flying into Turkish air space. And you can see the plane catches fire and it plummets to the ground. So Russia is now saying that Turkish -- a Turkish F-16 shot an air-to-air missile and brought that plane down. So we know the Russian pilots ejected. So just take us through what would be happening in the sky.

GREEN: Well, from what Turkey is saying, they had the Russian aircraft on radar, that it started doing warnings, probably while the Russian aircraft was coming close to Turkish air space, because the flight route that Turkey has released shows a very, very short time over Turkish air space that the Russian jet, you know, flew. So I don't think it's a question of -- that the Russian jet was minutes over Turkish air space. It's probably closer to seconds over Turkish air space. But in those seconds the -- the Turkish air force --

COSTELLO: So if you're the -- if you're the Russian pilots aboard that military jet --

GREEN: That's right.

COSTELLO: And you hear warnings coming in, supposedly 10 warnings in five minutes, what do you normally do?

[09:40:03] GREEN: Well, normally what you do is you stay out of Turkish air space. You know where you are. The question is, is how were those warnings given? What language were they given? What frequency were they given? Did they actually get to the Russian pilots? I have a feeling when this investigation -- this is one of the things that everybody who's talking now, the Turks, the Russians, they all have a, you know, point of view that they're trying to sell. And what has to really happen is the facts have to come out.

COSTELLO: Right.

GREEN: And it may turn out that this is just a series of blunders on the Russian pilots and the Turkish air force.

COSTELLO: OK. So let's continue on in our saga.

GREEN: Right.

COSTELLO: So supposedly these Russian pilots were given these warnings. They continued flying toward Turkish air space. And a Turkish F-16 shot an air-to-air missile. Would the fighter pilot in the Turkish plane be able to identify the Russian plane as a Russian aircraft?

GREEN: Probably not. Unless the aircraft is, you know, putting out a signal. They're not -- we're not talking about flying up on the aircraft and doing a dog fight. We're talking about acquiring the aircraft on a missile tracking system and shooting a missile from a great distance away. So it's a very small airplane in a very big sky. So it's very unlikely that they knew exactly -- I think that it was really identified -- unidentified aircraft, a bogey, that was, you know, interfering with Turkish air space and they took it out of the sky.

COSTELLO: OK, so for the Russians in the fighter jet, right?

GREEN: Right.

COSTELLO: How would they know to eject? When would they eject?

GREEN: Well, they would most likely eject when their aircraft becomes damaged. So they --

COSTELLO: So when the missile hits them, they eject?

GREEN: Right. So what they -- what they would do is they'd have -- they'd -- on the aircraft they would have an indication that a missile is inbound. You've probably seen this in movies. They would -- they would probably try to take some evasive maneuvers, put some flairs chaff (ph) out, which -- trying to distract the missile. And then once they -- once the missile hits, they pull the ejection seats and they're both out of the aircraft.

And I think what's in -- what's -- what would be really great is that somebody has to go get those pilots back, whether -- I think one is reported as dead. One seems to have been captured. But Turkey could do a lot of good right now if they use their influence in the region to try to get those pilots back so they don't have to suffer the fate that other captured pilots have suffered.

COSTELLO: You think Turkey would really do that because Turkey's not so happy right now with Russia?

GREEN: Well, they're not happy, but I think that they have to understand that there's bigger issues than their -- you know, this unhappiness. This is -- Turkey's a member of NATO. They're our allies. They're -- you know, we have common enemies in the area. We have, unfortunately, differences of opinion with Russia, but these pilots are just military guys, just like our guys, and they should -- they should get home.

COSTELLO: We'll see what happens because, you're right, we don't know what happened to the pilots right now, but we did hear reports one is dead and one is injured and has been taken captive, but no word yet from Turkish authorities or from Russian authorities exactly what happened to these pilots.

Justin Green, thanks for stopping by.

GREEN: Thanks, Carol.

COSTELLO: A stab in the back. Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out, warning Turkey of significant consequences over that downed jet. This latest development could complicate strategy, especially if Russia retaliates against NATO member Turkey.

Joining me now to talk about all of this, former Russia Today America anchor Liz Wahl. She resigned last year because she said the Russian network's Putin-ist agenda did not align with her journalistic integrity. I'm also joined by contributing writer for "The New York Times" magazine, Julia Ioffe. She's also a columnist at "Foreign Policy."

Thank you both for being here.

LIZ WAHL, FORMER RT AMERICAN ANCHOR: thank you.

JULIA IOFFE, CONTRIBUTING WRITER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES" MAGAZINE: Thanks for having me.

COSTELLO: Thanks for being here.

Julia, to you first. Will Russia retaliate in some way against Turkey?

IOFFE: You know, this isn't the first time that Russia has flown into Turkish air space. So I think that's, you know, to Justin's point, that they may have been in the -- in Turkish air space for not a very long time. But I from the Turkish point of view, this isn't the first time this has happened and I think they felt that they had to make a strong showing. Vladimir Putin's statement when he was with King Abdullah of Jordan was actually very strong. So there might be some kind of retaliation. The problem is, you know, how do you retaliate against a NATO member without it escalating into the full blown war?

COSTELLO: So, Liz, from your perspective, how will Putin respond?

WAHL: Well, I think this kind of underlies this problem of a possible coalition with the west and France and Russia and the United States working together as a coalition to fight ISIS. And I think there's this underlying issue of trust and whether or not we can credibly rely on Russia as an ally to fight ISIS. You've got to remember, when Russia first started the military build-

up at the end of September, they said -- they tried to sell it that they were fighting ISIS. But what were the first targets? They had -- they had targeted anti -- the moderate rebels in the Free Syrian Army.

[09:45:03] So I think that this underlies this problem of trust and this, the possibility of working together with NATO. I think one way to kind of gauge the way that Russia is going to spin the situation is looking at the narrative that they're pushing on the media. And right now the headline on Russian media that the Russian plane was likely downed with a ground-based missile. Of course, from Turkey, we're hearing that it was an air to air missile. Why is that significant? Well, if it was air to air missile, that gives the indication that they did get several warnings, that they were warned to get out of Turkish air space. But Russia is now spinning it, or the narrative that is coming out very quickly, is that it was a ground to air missile. So already you're seeing the spin machine in the Russian propaganda campaign trying to make their case in their side of, their interpretation of the (INAUDIBLE).

COSTELLO: Right, a lot of conflicting information right now. So Julia, what should the United States do?

IOFFE: Oh I think they have to tread very, very carefully. But Liz actually is right. The thing is that, you know, Justin was talking about how there's going to have to be an investigation into what actually happened.

The thing is that investigation doesn't really matter, because the Russian people and Russian functionaries and Russian officials are going to believe and act on according to what they see on their television screens. And right now the Kremlin television propaganda machine is kicking into high gear. They're probably going to go off of what Putin said in his statement and they are going to spin the hell out of this.

So they might end up, just like with the shooting down of Malaysian airliner over Eastern Ukraine last summer, they might come away with a completely different narrative than the one we have in the West and in the Turkey. And I think that's also going to, getting back to your question about what the U.S. should do, it kind of -- doesn't necessarily have to hem the U.S. in, but it's something that Washington should take into consideration. Because if they think that their response or retaliation or something is going to have to be -- is based on the fact that -- you know, based on what they conclude in their investigation, Russians are going to have to totally different reality. And whatever the U.S. and the West and NATO do is not going seem justified.

COSTELLO: All right, Julia -- Julia Ioffe and Liz Wahl, thanks so much for joining me this morning.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CROWD (chanting): We want justice. We want justice.

Kill white supremacy. Kill white supremacy!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: A Black Lives Matter protest in Minneapolis hit by gunfire overnight with multiple demonstrators wounded.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:52:12]

COSTELLO: In Minneapolis police are searching for several gunmen after five people were shot and wounded overnight near a Black Lives Matter protest. Here's how it sounded over the police radio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DISPATCH: We're getting reports of possibly three shots. There's five suspects, somebody's stating there's a group of white supremacists that started shooting in the area. Five suspects total.

DISPATCH: 4-6-1, we've arrived. There's a large group coming towards us northbound on 14th on Plymouth.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Miguel Marquez is covering this story for us this morning. Good morning.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. Very, very concerning what has happened out there in Minneapolis. This was a protest, an occupation of the Fourth Precinct in Minneapolis. It had been going on since Sunday the 15th over the death of a 24-year-old Jamar Clark.

At some point there were several people in the crowd wearing masks, according to some of the protesters who were there. They escorted them away. And as they were escorting them away, they turned on them and started firing into the crowd, the individuals that were e escorting them away. They said they had been acting strange all night and that's why they were moving away from the main occupation. Here's how one protester who was there described it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A person in the crowd had seen them about to draw a gun when they were in the crowd. So then the people, most of the people stopped because we knew it was a trap. They were trying to set us up. But then a small group broke off and kept following them. And me and Lucci (ph) ran with them, because we need to make sure they stay safe. And then as we broke away from the crowd, and then we crossed the street, then they turned around and started shooting.

(END VIDEO CLIP) MARQUEZ: Now that young woman actually describes two people, one person to her left, one to her right, actually falling down. That's when she realized it wasn't fireworks but was instead gunfire coming from these individuals.

Police are now looking for three white men they believe that undertook these shootings. Five people in total injured, none of them life threatening thankfully. The family of Jamar Clark has now asked in light of these shootings that the occupation in front of the Fourth Precinct be stopped and that it be moved to the next level, whatever that means.

Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, I'm sure you'll continue to follow this for us. Miguel Marquez, thanks so much.

Checking some other top stories for you at 54 minute spast. The NFL says it is investigating why Rams quarterback Case Keenum was allowed to keep on playing Sunday after getting slammed to the ground. Keenum clearly had trouble standing up afterward, but kept playing after being checked by a team trainer. Only later was he found to have a concussion. According to NFL policy, a medical spotter should have stopped Keenum from returning to the game.

[09:55:02]

And more intrigue inside the secretive government of North Korea. The man presumed to Kim Jong-Un's second in command is believed to have been banished from the regime. One South Korean expert suggested the exile might only be temporary and Kim's number 2 will return after a stint at a reeducation camp.

The next hour of CNN NEWSROOM after a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

COSTELLO: and good morning, I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. The video is chilling and Vladimir Putin is calling it a stab at the back. A Russian warplane streaks across the sky engulfed in flames and igniting a new diplomatic crisis in one of the most tense regions in the world.

Turkey says the plane invaded its air space and ignored ten warnings over five minutes.

[10:00:02]

Turkey responds and the Russian jet nosedives in flames. Two pilots eject. You're going to see them here highlighted. They parachute to the ground. They landed in Syria, but not necessarily to safety.