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CNN Releases Lineup for Republican Debate; Iowa Poll: Cruz Leading, Trump Drops to Second; NYT: Female Shooter Supported Jihad on Social Media; The Raging Debate Over the Strength of ISIS; Interview with Target CEO Brian Cornell; Setting the Stage for the Next GOP Showdown. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired December 13, 2015 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: It is 6:00 here in New York, 3:00 p.m. out in Las Vegas. I'm Poppy Harlow.

[18:00:00] Thank you so much for being with us.

We begin with that little clock you see in the corner of your screen. The last Republican presidential debate of the year is less than 48 hours away and will air right here on CNN.

We now know what the lineup will be for Tuesday's showdown at the Venetian on the Las Vegas strip. Nine candidates making the main stage with Donald Trump center stage. He is, of course, the front- runner. He will be flanked by his newest, closest rival Ted Cruz and also to his other side, Dr. Ben Carson.

Two major polls show that Cruz is mounting a major challenge to Trump in the early, critical state of Iowa, where Cruz now leads, beating Trump 31 percent to 21 percent in a "Des Moines Register/Bloomberg politics poll.

Nationwide, Trump is still on top but Cruz is biting at his heels. Trump at 27 percent, Cruz at 22 percent in a brand-new NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll.

We have the best political team in television covering the story for you live from Las Vegas. That is where we find my friend and colleague, John Berman.

Hi, Berman.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Poppy. So much to talk about out here. As you said, the last debate, the last Republican debate of 2015, with the race changing so much right in front of our very eyes. Ted Cruz vaulting up into first place in Iowa.

You talk about the main stage debate. There was also a debate that begins at 6:00 on Tuesday night. Some people call it the undercard. George Pataki, Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and the current senator from South Carolina who cares a lot and talks a lot about national security, Lindsey Graham. That begins at 6:00 p.m.

I want to discuss both debates with our CNN political team here, Paul Begala, S.E. Cupp, Michael Smerconish.

S.E., I want to start with you here with the newest dynamic in the debate which is the Cruz/Trump dynamic. Cruz has moved to the center stage right next to Donald Trump. They have been friends and friendly up until this point.

What does Ted Cruz need to do on Tuesday?

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't think they're actual friends when it comes to Donald, right? I mean, you may not be an enemy today. I don't know that that means that your friends.

I think Ted Cruz is starting to get a hint of what's it like to go after Donald Trump and threaten Donald Trump, at least in Iowa where he's up in the polls. But Ted Cruz needs to have a big night. If we're going to be talking about one thing for the next few days, who has the most to lose, who has the most to gain. I think that's very clearly Ted Cruz.

He's had this strategy that he's been very open about, suggesting he's going to bear hug Trump and Carson and hope that when they collapse, those voters go to Ted Cruz. That's worked with Carson's voters to a certain extent. It hasn't worked with Trump yet because Trump hasn't collapsed.

BERMAN: What about Donald Trump? How does he deal with the new person next to him?

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think the pressure is on. It's interesting, John, because you just showed those two surveys, one that shows Ted Cruz ahead in Iowa and other that shows Donald Trump ahead nationally. I bet there might be consensus among the four of us, which would you rather be? I think you'd rather be up in Iowa so that you could win Iowa. The cards then get shuffled.

And if Donald Trump doesn't win Iowa after having led 100 days thus far, I think he's the one that's in a far more precarious position.

BERMAN: I vote option C, I want to be ahead of both. But you didn't ask me that.

I want to read a Twitter exchange that's been going on the last several minutes, because it's truly fascinating and it's between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is the story that came out this week that he was meeting with some donors behind closed doors and questioned whether Donald Trump was fit to be commander in chief.

PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, just his judgment. It wasn't very --

BERMAN: It was just a judgment, right.

BEGALA: By my standards. BERMAN: Donald Trump tweets this out just now, a few minutes ago. It says, "I was disappointed Ted Cruz would speak behind my back, get caught, and then deny it. Well, welcome to the wonderful world of politics."

So, we see Donald Trump taking on Ted Cruz a little bit there. Now, Ted Cruz has responded. I need to call this up right now because I have to do it justice.

He writes, "In honor of my friend, real Donald Trump and good-hearted maniacs everywhere," and then he links to a YouTube video of "Maniac" from "Flashdance". Now, I think for rights reasons we can't actually play this for you. I wish we could. Perhaps we could sing it for you.

I think Ted Cruz just called Donald Trump a maniac.

BEGALA: Well, Mr. Trump used that phrase about Senator Cruz the other day. He said Cruz goes on the Senate floor like a maniac --

BERMAN: OK.

BEGALA: -- and calls people liars and he won't be able to get anything done.

Trump is a phenomenal politician, right, a great attacker. But we're seeing Ted Cruz here, a great counterpuncher. He was a champion debater at some little college called Princeton, right? He was an outstanding law student at Harvard Law.

He's -- they don't get any smarter than Ted Cruz. And Trump is going to have his hands full with this. Cruz is now going to -- watch in the debates, if Trump repeats this attack, oh, you can't get along with your colleagues and make deals and get things done, Cruz is going to embrace that.

[18:05:04] He's going to say, well, I consider that a badge of honor that the Washington establishment, the corrupt Senate leadership on both parties doesn't like me.

I mean, he will jujitsu Donald very effectively.

CUPP: Yes, and tonally, you can tell, Ted Cruz is trying to make light of this, you know, the back and forth but he doesn't want --

BERMAN: I hope you're not calling "Flashdance" a joke.

CUPP: I know some -

BEGALA: I don't have rights but it's playing in my head right now. I have to go to confession. It's a Sunday, I can't have --

CUPP: He's going to have to get tough. I mean, Donald Trump just name checked Ted Cruz out of nowhere as an evangelical from Cuba, where apparently evangelicals don't exist. Meanwhile, there's over a million evangelicals in Cuba. It's tripled since the 1980s. But it doesn't matter. Facts don't matter.

But he's trying now to take on Ted Cruz in Iowa where he is doing well among evangelicals and he's trying to do it by saying this guy is a scary foreigner, essentially. And it's going to be interesting to see whether Ted Cruz voters, whether evangelicals like that Trump rhetoric or kind of break finally and say, no, no, Cruz is our guy.

SMERCONISH: Can I also add that I think that there are many on that stage Tuesday night who could rightfully question Ted Cruz as to whether he has the temperament to get along with colleagues and get things done. I don't think Donald Trump is the one who can rightfully lay claim to that mantra.

BERMAN: This morning, Donald Trump said, "I have the temperament to be president and Ted Cruz doesn't. Ted Cruz can't get along with anyone. I can." That's Donald Trump --

(CROSSTALK)

SMERCONISH: The name-calling that he's engaged in in the last 100 days that he should therefore assert he could go on and work with both sides. I mean, who is not laughing when they hear that?

BERMAN: It is interesting, Michael, it's one thing having the "Flashdance" exchange over Twitter right now. But when you're standing next to someone on stage with the cameras on, it's a different dynamic. We saw, you know, Scott Walker who was next to Donald Trump that first debate withered.

SMERCONISH: Right.

BERMAN: You know, we've seen Jeb Bush withered in that moment. There's going to be interesting --

SMERCONISH: I don't think Ted Cruz will wither. I do believe he'll continue to try and play nice with Donald Trump. It's also amusing to me Trump still maintains he's a counterpuncher and that he never throws the first blow. I think he threw the first blow with regards to Ted Cruz as soon as that Monmouth University survey came out which showed Cruz leading Trump.

BERMAN: All right. Michael Smerconish, S.E. Cupp, Paul Begala, and the men and women of "Flashdance", we're going to have much more live coverage from Las Vegas a little later this hour.

But for now, let's go back to Poppy Harlow in New York -- Poppy.

HARLOW: All right, guys, thank you very much. We'll be back to John in a moment.

What you do not want to miss, the Republican debate, it is just two days away, Tuesday night, in Las Vegas. It is the last GOP debate of the year and it is only right here on CNN.

Next up, two significant developments in San Bernardino, California, in the ongoing terror investigation there. We have new information about the FBI's search of that lake near the site of the terror attack.

Also, we are learning more about the disturbing red flags that were missed when it comes to the female shooter.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:11:15] HARLOW: We have just learned an exhaustive three-day FBI search of that lake in San Bernardino, California, has recovered no items linked to the terror attack. The search will continue elsewhere for one of the top items of interest to investigators. That is that missing hard drive from the terrorists' computer.

We also have brand-new information about this woman, the female shooter, Tashfeen Malik. "The New York Times" today reporting authorities recently found old social media posts discussing her views on violent jihad. She passed three background checks by U.S. immigration officials when she entered the country in July of 2014.

What's critical is this: at that time, the protocol for doing these background checks, it did not include checking social media posts. A U.S. official told CNN the United States only recently began reviewing social activity of visa applicants from certain countries. We're talking about just in the past few months.

Ana Cabrera with me now live from San Bernardino.

Those are the investigative headlines where you are, Ana. It's really about how the community is doing, how they're moving forward ahead of Monday when a lot of these workers go back.

ANA CABRERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is a community very much grieving still, Poppy. Some of the victims laid to rest over the weekend. We're on a makeshift memorial that's been set up near the shooting scene. And when you look around, you feel the love from this community and from the people in the surrounding communities.

I want to show you some of the signs, the messages, and what's being left here. You can see the sign here that says "united we stand", and it's full of all kinds of words of encouragement and prayers from people in this community who've also come by dropping off flowers and balloons and candles, and we've seen people stop by in this community who said they didn't know the victims but they just have been so touched and really hurt by what happened here.

When you look on the side, you can really start to see how expansive the memorial is and you can see all these people who have been streaming by the past week and a half, really since the shooting happened, this memorial, a sign of unification, a sign of strength especially as those who are really feeling the hurt, grieving loved ones who are lost are trying to keep their legacies alive.

We know Shannon Johnson, 45 years old, was laid to rest in his home state of Georgia over the weekend. He's a man who died a hero according to eyewitnesses who said he shielded a co-worker and took the gunfire so she could be protected.

We also know Yvette Velazquez is the another victim who was laid to rest, just 27 years old, one of the youngest victims of this attack, remember for her brilliant smile, her sparkling eyes. She was the youngest of four sisters.

So, again, this community is trying to lift those people up as the investigation and the search for answers continues, Poppy.

HARLOW: Absolutely. Ana, thank you so much live for us tonight in San Bernardino, as we remember all of the victims, 14 murdered, 22 injured and hospitalized.

Coming up next, Donald Trump is talking about the reaction that he's getting to his proposed temporary ban of Muslims traveling into this country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have many friends that are Muslims and I will tell you they are so happy that I did this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: After the break, we will get reaction from officials in the first American city with a majority Muslim city council.

Stay with me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:18:30] HARLOW: In this political season, the rhetoric over Muslims in America has been heated, it has been divisive at points, and in some cases, the debate has broken down to us versus them. But in a city in Michigan they are trying to turn us and them into we. We're talking about Hamtramck, Michigan, it is right near Detroit, and was known as a community welcoming first Polish immigrants and then Muslim immigrants to this country.

Recently, Hamtramck made history, by electing what appears to be the first majority Muslim city council ever in U.S. history. I'm joined now by the mayor, Karen Majewski, and City Councilman elect, Saad Almasmari.

Thank you both for being with me.

Let me begin with you, Mayor. What is your message from your city to America right now in this heated, heated moment?

Oh, well, we're going to give her a chance to answer that question. This happens with technology.

Let me ask you, Saad, what is your statement to America in this heated moment of rhetoric?

SAAD ALMASMARI, HAMTRAMCK, MICHIGAN CITY COUNCIL: My message is very clear, Poppy. We are -- knocked every door and we tried to be elected by everyone in the city of Hamtramck. We are willing to work for everyone.

I don't know why the media keep putting the religion into politics. Yes, we are Muslims. Yes, I am Muslim. I am glad of that. But I will never put my religion into my politics.

I knocked on about 3,800 doors asking people to vote for me.

[18:20:02] I got my vote from Muslims and non-Muslims. So, I'm glad that I got the highest vote getter as a first-time candidate. I explained my goals. I explained my plan to the people.

So, everybody was satisfied with me and I gave the people the chance to ask me to meet me and to talk to me. That's why people vote for me.

HARLOW: Now it's believed that, the mayor has said previously, your city, Hamtramck is about 40 percent Muslims. So, approaching half and half. You said just there that you believe the media is inserting this into politics.

Is that what you think is the media or is it what you're fearing from politicians?

ALMASMARI: Actually, it's the media because the election we just run was a politics election. It was not a religion election.

I was elected by everyone -- as I said, Muslims and non-Muslims. I knocked on doors. I asked everyone to vote for me and the people in Hamtramck, 2.2 square miles, they are together, they like each other and they respect each other -- although they are from different nationalities and different languages and different religions.

So, they live peacefully and respectfully. So, I think we live in Hamtramck, good and we have no issues. We don't have no difference between Muslims and non-Muslims. Yes, I am a Muslim but I'm going to work for everyone.

HARLOW: Saad, let's take a listen to what Donald Trump said, especially this morning following his proposal that this country temporarily ban Muslims from coming in.

Jake Tapper asked him about it this morning. Let's play that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I have many friends that are Muslims, and I will tell you, they are so happy I did this because they know they have a problem. When my friends call me up and they call me up very strongly and they say, it's something -- and these are Muslims -- and they say, it's something, Donald, that has to be talked about.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST, STATE OF THE UNION: But they don't support the ban. TRUMP: Not really. Why would they support the ban? But without the

ban, you're not going to make the point. You're not going to be able to make the point.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: What's your reaction to Donald Trump's proposal?

ALMASMARI: I think as we all know, Poppy, the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution guarantees the right of religion, the freedom of the religion. So, even the second president of the U.S. when they tried to write the Constitution, they used the Koran, the holy Koran, the Muslim Koran to help write the Constitution.

So, I think Mr. Donald Trump is a Christmas gift under a Christmas tree for a Hillary Clinton. This guy, if I am mad or I am angry, I go to YouTube and open his speeches so I can laugh a little bit.

HARLOW: It sounds like you're treating him like a joke, but he is the leading GOP contender nationwide. There are many, many Americans who believe very much that he would be the best commander in chief.

ALMASMARI: Actually, I respect Mr. Trump. I don't know him personally. I respect him but I think the idea that he's giving and the speeches he's saying, the things I'm against.

So, America is adopting all the religious, all the nationalities. This country was built by people from different countries from different religious, and I don't think America will be demanding or will be banning a certain religion.

What we see right now is the current situation, Mr. Trump is trying to get some more votes. But I don't think this is the right way to get votes.

HARLOW: OK. Well, Saad, thank you very much for your perspective. I'm so sorry we lost the mayor. We'd love to have her back again very soon with you, and congratulations to you on being elected. I know you'll officially become part of the city council in January. Thank you.

ALMASMARI: Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

HARLOW: Of course.

All right. Well, you just heard that discussion. Who will be the most effective next commander in chief?

We will return next to Las Vegas, the site of the CNN debate on Tuesday evening. The focus of that debate is exactly that. The next commander in chief, and national security. John Berman with us, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:27:57] HARLOW: You know that music. You know what it means. We're talking politics and CNN is hosting the next, the final Republican debate of the year. It is focused on national security. What is front and center in all of our minds right now following the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino.

We have the best political team in television covering the story like no one else can including, who else, my friend, John Berman outside the Venetian in Las Vegas.

Hey, John.

BERMAN: Hey, Poppy. So much to talk about here. Such an important moment. The last debate, the last debate of 2015.

But as you said, the first debate since so much has happened in the world, since the attacks in Paris, since the attacks in San Bernardino, and national security will be the focus here on Tuesday night.

So, how will that play out?

Let's bring back our CNN political commentators Paul Begala, S.E. Cupp, and Michael Smerconish.

You know, Michael, if this is a commander in chief debate, do you think the candidates will approach it differently?

SMERCONISH: I think it's great news for wolf that the focus was set to be national security because otherwise he would be wondering how do I shoehorn into an economic debate conversation about Donald Trump's plan to keep Muslims out of the United States. That's going to be the focal point, and the quandary for some of the candidates on the stage is that 50 percent of Republicans agree with him, 50 percent disagree. If you're one of those establishment types, you're not getting the 50 percent who agree with the Donald on the issue. So, how bold do you want to be in saying this is a ridiculous plan, and try to coalesce the establishment vote around yourself.

BERMAN: How bold do you want to be, be the one up there who says, have you no shame?

BEGALA: No, not on this. People are afraid and they have a right to be afraid. I think they're overreacting.

But when you get angry, your brain shuts down, OK? But you fight fear with facts. Not simply by denigrating Trump, right?

Look, he's a demagogue and a clown. His ideas are nonsensical and un- American. But saying things like that in the debate is not going to move those voters. Explaining to them the most important thing they could do to help ISIS would be to further radicalize moderate Muslims by doing the sorts of things Mr. Trump is suggesting.

[18:30:12] So I know his heart is in the right place, Wolf, but I think what Donald is actually doing is going to really hurt America and really help ISIS. I think if you give people facts, then they can form a different opinion. But, you know, anybody, when you sees the kind of slaughter that was in Paris, you see the attack in San Bernardino, they're going to get scared and then they're going to want to lash out. And it's the job of a real leader, unlike Mr. Trump who's a demagogue, to fight that fear with facts not with name- calling.

BERMAN: There are voters who like what they see when it comes to Donald Trump.

CUPP: Yes.

BERMAN: On handling these issues. He polls out in front a lot of the time on who best to handle terrorism. Who do you want to see as commander-in-chief?

CUPP: Yes. Because Trump's rhetoric, unfortunately, gets daily affirmations in real world events where his policy proposals don't match up, but the rhetoric, the feeling, the emotion, the passion, is affirmed on a daily basis by events around the world and by a strategy in the White House that has been measurably failing. For the first time we have a majority of people in the country who want us to send ground troops into Iraq and Syria so the momentum is with people like Chris Christie, people like Donald Trump.

It's not with people like Rand Paul or Ben Carson, like they're going to have a tough time on Tuesday night explaining the foreign policy that if you're Ben Carson makes very little sense and if you're Rand Paul is way on the other side of the argument that most people around the country are having right now.

BERMAN: But, you know, the majority, as SE is saying, do now say they want to see ground troops in Syria. I don't think there's anyone on the main stage really calling for that directly. John Kasich is sort of flirting with it a little bit. But Lindsey Graham --

SMERCONISH: Lindsey Graham, right.

BERMAN: Early.

SMERCONISH: Yes.

BERMAN: But, you know, Donald Trump doesn't want it.

SMERCONISH: Get totally usurped by Trump in that regard. Right, you would think there'd be a payoff for Lindsey Graham given that this is where he's been from the get-go and yet he hasn't seen it. I'm glad that by the, you know, hair on his chinny chin chin Rand Paul got into this thing because I like having his voice there.

CUPP: Yes.

SMERCONISH: I think it's important that someone speak for the issue of whether we make ourselves less safe every time our response is to open yet another base overseas.

BERMAN: I have to say --

(CROSSTALK) BEGALA: I'm sorry to interrupt, John. But there's a prediction and it's an informed one. You're going to see a fight between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz on this question of surveillance.

CUPP: Yes.

BEGALA: The Rubio folks believe they have an opening against Ted Cruz. The Cruz people say, oh, no, we helped broker the proper compromise.

CUPP: And Christie will get in on that as well.

BEGALA: Christie will, and so will Rand Paul.

CUPP: Yes. That's right.

BEGALA: He took a position in filibustering to try to kill the whole surveillance program. But I know that the Cruz and Rubio campaigns are circling each other on this issue.

CUPP: That is going to be in front.

BEGALA: They're going to find a way to come at each other.

BERMAN: Is Cruz nervous about this at all, do you think, SE?

CUPP: I think Ted Cruz knows that this is a big night for him and he's coming in with head winds. I mean, he's coming in -- he's up in Iowa. He's finally being talked about not just as, you know, Ben Carson-lite. I think he's managed to usurp Ben Carson as sort of the evangelical candidate and he knows it's his moment to shine especially right -- you know, not right next to but kind of close to Donald Trump.

BERMAN: He's right next to him. He really is right next to him.

CUPP: Right next to him. Yes.

BERMAN: But on this narrow issue of national security, do you think Ted Cruz needs to be nervous? You know, he's going to be on stage and there will be Marco Rubio will say you're soft on national security.

CUPP: Look, he's going to get that from Chris Christie. He's probably going to get some pushback from Marco Rubio. Carly Fiorina is excellent talking about national security and foreign policy. And she sounds more hawkish sometimes than anyone else on that stage. So it's going to be a tough -- his position is going to be tough to enumerate, but as Paul says, he's a very talented guy. He's very good at delivering an argument. I think he'll have a good night.

SMERCONISH: And SE, I think it's an important night -- pardon me, Paul -- for Ted Cruz because we're junkies. We're caught up in this and we've been caught up in this now for six months. For much of the country they're taking their first look.

BERMAN: Absolutely. SMERCONISH: And for Cruz, the timing is perfect.

CUPP: Right.

SMERCONISH: He's ascending right at a time when people are tuning in, but it's important Tuesday night because they'll be tuning in and getting their first review of Ted Cruz. So he's got to do well. And I think it's also a big night for Ben Carson who is really descending and I think unless he can stabilize, frankly, it will be over for him soon.

CUPP: Ben Carson has admitted foreign policy is not his strong suit. So I don't know. He's got a big -- heavy lift tomorrow night.

BERMAN: Paul Begala, SE Cupp, Michael Smerconish, great to have you with us. The debate here, Tuesday night. We're going to have much more coverage live from Las Vegas all week here. For now, though, let's go to Poppy Harlow in New York.

Hey, Poppy.

HARLOW: Thank you, guys, very much.

You will not want to miss where they are in Las Vegas for the Republican debate two days away Tuesday night. The main stage event 8:30 p.m. Before that the debate at 6:00 p.m. Only right here on CNN.

Up next, the single biggest difference, philosophical difference, between how President Obama views the terror threat and how his critics view it. We'll talk about that.

[18:35:05] Why the president feels ISIS is growing weaker and Republicans could not disagree more, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: The White House announcing President Obama will visit the Pentagon tomorrow. He will meet with his national security team. Of course the focus will be the continuing war in the battle against ISIS. It's what a spokesman calls an update.

No major policy shift is expected to come out of this meeting tomorrow but it is his first visit to the Pentagon since the terror linked attacks in Southern California and, of course, the terrorist attacks in Paris.

Peter Beinart is with me, CNN political commentator and contributor to "The Atlantic."

You have a fascinating new piece in "The Atlantic" talking about not just strategy. We know that the military strategy from Republicans and Democrats is so different, but the philosophical divide between the two when it comes to the terror threat we face right now. Let's read part of this talking about the president's address in the oval office on Sunday night. "He gave the address to convince an increasingly fearful nation that

he takes the terrorist threat seriously. But he doesn't, at least not in the way his political opponents do."

What is the biggest philosophical divide here?

PETER BEINART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, George W. Bush compared violent jihadism to Nazism and communism, as this kind of epic threat that had mass appeal around the world. Marco Rubio talks about the same thing. He says we're at war with an entire -- with a civilization.

HARLOW: Right.

[18:40:02] BEINART: I don't think Barack Obama believes that.

HARLOW: He won't use those words. He won't use radical Islam.

BEINART: Right. But I also think that he believes that actually violent jihadism is a weak ideology, not an ideology that has a lot of inherent appeal. After all communism and fascism at their height in the '30s, a lot of people actually believe they could bring more economic prosperity than capitalism during the great depression. Nobody believes that ISIS has a vision for prosperity for anyone.

I think Obama believes that the only hope that ISIS has really is to feed off the hostility that people in the Muslim world have towards the West because of their interventions and because of things like what Donald Trump is doing, and that if we avoid that, then we allow ISIS' weakness to expose itself.

HARLOW: What do you think, Peter, if you can answer this.

BEINART: Yes.

HARLOW: Informs his thinking in that fashion that is so different from his Republican opponents. Even Hillary Clinton is more hawkish than he is in terms of strategy. But what is it about Barack Obama's sort of history.

BEINART: Right.

HARLOW: That has caused him to think --

BEINART: You also see this in the way he discusses the conflict with Putin.

HARLOW: OK.

BEINART: I think Obama has a great deal of faith in the inherent strength of liberal democracies as a far more attractive project and generally believes that if liberal democracies don't screw things up by doing things like the Iraq war, self-inflicted wounds, our natural strength over our -- totalitarian competitors shows itself through. The Republicans are a little bit more -- you saw this during the Cold War, too. Conservatives tend to be much more afraid that the West was fundamentally weak and that ideologically our competitors might be stronger. They had a more apocalyptic vision of the Soviet threat and they do now vis-a-vis ISIS as well.

HARLOW: So talking about Hillary Clinton, given the fact that now 44 percent of Americans think that the biggest threat is terror and that there could be relatively -- an attack very likely, are the words they use in the United States, in the next few months, how does Hillary Clinton, if she makes it to a general election, differentiate herself enough on that front from this president?

BEINART: Well, I think her instincts are actually quite different. I think Hillary Clinton is much more naturally hawkish than Barack Obama. I think he was very influenced by the experience of the Iraq war. She was much more influenced by the experiences of the 1990s, the successful Gulf War, the interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo. She has a higher comfort level with military force.

I think the thing that she, and we all have to be concerned about, is even if going after ISIS is a good idea --

HARLOW: But why would she have more of a comfort level having voted the way she did and looking at Iraq?

BEINART: Because I think that by the time the Iraq experience happened, she was later on in her political career. People tend to be most influenced by things that happen earlier, in the formative stages. I think for her the formative foreign policy experience was our successful military interventions in the '90s. She was very close to Madeleine Albright, the architect of the Kosovo war.

HARLOW: Sure.

BEINART: Obama wasn't influenced by that. Iraq was his seminal experience and that, I think, helps to explain the difference between them.

HARLOW: So as he watch, as we all will be, the debate, the GOP debate on Tuesday night, it is all about national security. What are you looking for, for some of these other candidates aside from Trump, to break out and break through on that front?

BEINART: What I'm looking forward is for people to talk about the day after. It's one thing to say you can bomb ISIS into oblivion. You actually can't. Even if you had a ground force that was strong enough to defeat them, we have to talk about the day after ISIS. Remember, what got us in trouble in Iraq was not overthrowing Saddam. It was we had no plan for the day after. If we don't have some plan --

HARLOW: And look at Libya and look at what we're going to do with Syria.

BEINART: Right. We can drop a lot of bombs and we can even arm a lot of people. They might even defeat ISIS. But unless we are thinking now about what Syria and Iraq look like afterwards, we could find ourselves back in a very dangerous situation.

HARLOW: Do you think that voters want that answer, too? Or do they want the now, now, now, I'm strong, we'll bomb them?

BEINART: You know, I think good leaders have a responsibility for the good of the country to talk about that now because ultimately we will -- we've suffered a lot from not doing that kind of long-term thinking.

HARLOW: Peter Beinart, fascinating piece in "The Atlantic."

BEINART: Thank you.

HARLOW: Thank you. Good to see you.

BEINART: Thank you.

HARLOW: Coming up next, politics aside, are the biggest leaders in business here in America? Well, how are they going to pay their workers going forward? It is a massive debate in this country, the fight over minimum wage. I had a chance this week to talk to the CEO of Target, one of the biggest retailers in this country. He will join me next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIAN C. CORNELL, CEO, TARGET CORPORATION: In each and every market we're paying competitive wage that attracts great talent. So I think it's critically important and it's something we think about all the time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[18:44:25]

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HARLOW: In this week's "American Opportunity" the CEO of one of America's largest retailers, Target, on the minimum wage debate. According to a new Pew Research Center report out this week, middle class Americans now make up less than half of the nation's population. It also shows more Americans are moving into the upper range of the upper class, the higher range, and the lower range of the lower class.

So why does this matter? It matters because of growth, economic growth. There is research that shows increased income inequality can stunt economic growth.

This week, I spoke with the CEO of Target, Brian Cornell, during his visit to Target House at St. Jude's Hospital in Memphis. They provide free long-term housing for pediatric patients and their families.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Let's begin with where you are. You are down in Memphis. You were at St. Jude's, and you're there for a very specific reason. Why are you there?

CORNELL: Well, we're here at St. Jude's. We've had a long-standing partnership now with St. Jude's Research Hospital for over 20 years and we're here to really help celebrate the holiday with the family and the children. So you caught me on an amazing day, one of the more emotional days I've had in a long time. It's hard to not walk around here and not get a great sense or appreciation of all the great work that's being done here, the work that this team does at St. Jude's to really change the lives and improve the lives of so many children.

[18:50:04] It's really humbling for me and it's been really a proud moment for our team to recognize that. We've got a great partner here. And working with them, we can make a difference in the lives of so many children around the country.

HARLOW: I want to talk about the minimum wage debate in this country. It is front and center right now. We see in the fast foods phase the fight for $15. Target raised its wages across-the-board with a minimum now of $9 an hour that started in April.

Where do you fall on that debate, Brian? What is a living wage in this country? Where should the federal minimum wage sit?

CORNELL: Well, Poppy, we really start by recognizing that for Target to deliver the type of experience that we know our guests deserve, we've got to make sure that we've got the best team in retail. And to do that, we have a long history of looking at wages, market by market, year after year to make sure we pay a competitive wage and we attract great talent.

And one of the things that I'm most proud of is the engagement stores from our frontline organization. And right now we're seeing some of the best scores in all of retail. So that certainly comes back with making sure we're providing a competitive wage. So we want to make sure we have team members that are committed to a long-term career at Target and that starts with making sure in each and every market we're paying a competitive wage that attracts great talent. So I think it's critically important and it's something we think about all the time.

HARLOW: Talk to me about the fight for $15. At $15 an hour, what would happen? I mean, you sit in the C suite, you watch all of this, you crunch all the numbers, what would $15 an hour minimum wage across the board mean? Would it mean that the consumers all pay more? How much more? Would it mean that shareholders get less? Would it mean that there are job losses, Brian?

CORNELL: I think for us across our business, you know, we've managed that. And we analyze it all the time.

HARLOW: Right.

CORNELL: You know, certainly as wages improve around the country, we're going to benefit because we're going to have more guests that have more dollars in their pocket to spend in their stores. So we think it's really important that we see the minimum wages continuing to be adjusted, we want to make sure that we have a guest and an environment that we're working in that's right for our guests and right for Target. So -- and we clearly think about this all the time and recognize how

important this issue is. but, you know, we're certainly seeing an uptick in the economy. I think we see a much more optimistic consumer as we head into the holiday season. And certainly wages plays a very important part in that.

HARLOW: So could Target sustain a $15 minimum wage and keep all its employees? Is that what you're telling me? Because it would give so much more money to people in their pocket to spend therefore at your stores?

CORNELL: Well, again, we look at it on a market by market basis, so we try to make sure that we're not just looking at a one-size-fits-all wage structure. We recognize that to attack talent in certain cities, we're going to pay at a very different level. So we don't look at a blanket approach. We look at it very surgically, market by market, to make sure in those cities we're paying the right wage, attracting the right talent. So as opposed to a one-size-fits-all, we really think it's a market by market decision and we're going to make sure that we're paying a competitive wage to attract great talent.

HARLOW: Even in the most expensive cities, like New York City, would a $15 make sense or would it mean job losses? I've had economists tell me, even some liberal economists, $15 would result in a lot of job losses.

CORNELL: Well, I think in cities like New York we know we're going to pay a higher wage to make sure that we're attracting the talent we need. So you're absolutely spot on. In major metro markets like New York, you know, we recognize, as I think our competitors do, that to attract the right talent, we're going to pay a higher wage. So, it gets back to looking at this not on a broad geographic basis, but on a very market specific basis to understand what type of wages we have to pay to attract the kind of talent we need.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: All right. And we'll keep having this minimum wage conversation on the show.

Brian Cornell of Target, thank you very much for that.

Up next there is one number that the Republican presidential candidates are more focused on potentially than any other. We will tell you what the number is, next.

[18:54:36]

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HARLOW: Tuesday night CNN Republican presidential debate from Las Vegas will focus on national security. Our Athena Jones is there and she sets the stage.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm coming to you from the Venetian Theater right here on the Las Vegas Strip. This is where it will all go down on Tuesday night. And we're in the middle of rehearsals right now but you can see here the main stage has been set. We now know the nine candidates who made the cut for the primetime debate. They are, in order, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Rand Paul.

Trump is center stage once again. He is still the frontrunner nationally but his frontrunner status is being challenged by Cruz in the state of Iowa. Three new polls now showing the Texas senator leading there.

Now CNN's Wolf Blitzer and Dana Bash, along with Salem Radio's Hugh Hewitt, are spending a lot of time over the next several days in the cone of silence, finalizing debate questions for this huge production. There will be 17 cameras and an invite-only audience of about 1400 people filling this theater on Tuesday night.

Of course this will be the last debate of the year. The last chance for these candidates to make a strong impression with voters heading into the holiday season. Millions will be watching. So the big question, will Donald Trump attack Ted Cruz? Will Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz get into it? Will Ben Carson and Jeb Bush and others have breakout performances that can boost their poll numbers?

We'll be watching to see what happens.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Yes, we will. Thank you, Athena Jones.

As we look forward to that debate Tuesday night here on CNN, the number tonight is 1237. That is how many delegates a Republican candidate needs to become officially the party's presidential nominee with such a crowded GOP field.

[19:00:04] Party leaders have discussed the possibility of a brokered convention something we have not seen in decades. Either way it is a long road to 1237.