Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Newsroom
Donald Trump Leads GOP Pack By Over 30 Points; Republican Establishment Hopes for Trump Alternative; GOP Debate Tonight on CNN; Bergdahl to Face Court Martial; Majority of GOP Voters Suppost Ground Troops in the Fight Against ISIS; Baltimore Awaits Verdict in Freddie Gray Death Case. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired December 15, 2015 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[00:00:00] JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm John Vause, live in Las Vegas, where Republican Presidential Candidates are getting set to square off on Tuesday night.
ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Isha Sesay in Los Angeles where just hours ago the new "Star Wars" movie made its world premiere. I'll take you to the red carpet next on CNN NEWSROOM, live from Los Angeles.
VAUSE: It is 9:00 p.m. here on the Las Vegas Strip where, in about 18 hours, the top republican contenders in the U.S. Presidential Race will take to the stage. It's their final debate of the year, a clash that will shape a contest that's full of complex issues and, it is fair to say, some very colorful personalities. Okay, let's bring in CNN's Politics Executive Editor, Mark Preston, for more analysis on this.
And, of course, the man who is center stage; once again he's made this debate all about himself, Donald Trump, had a rally here a short time ago. What's he been saying?
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, I'll tell you, John, he still working the crowd right now, in a casino hotel right down the strip right now, and he acknowledged that he is going to be the target tomorrow night. He is the frontrunner right now. We've seen a new poll out here in the United States, a national poll that shows he is by far leading the republican field by many, many points, as many now as 30 points; but I've got to tell you now, John, not only did he talk about himself being a target but when he talks about foreign policy, he said as far as the refugees go, from Syria, any Syrian refugees that are here in the United States, if he is elected president, he is going to round them up, he said, and he's going to send them home.
VAUSE: Okay, so this is what this debate is going to be about now. It's going to be about foreign policy. It's going to be about national security, because obviously, what happened in Paris and more close at home what happened in San Bernardino has changed this campaign in a very big way, and that seems to be benefitting Donald Trump. PRESTON: It has, and what's interesting about Donald Trump, even for
-- it's perplexing in many ways for the voters here in the United States, as well as around the world when you see what Donald Trump has said. In many ways it would have killed the candidacies of any other person, but Donald Trump comes out and says that he's going to build a wall all along the Mexican border and he's going to have the Mexican government pay for it. He's says that he's going to -- right now; he just said a short time ago, he's going to deportable all the Syrian refugees. He says he's not going to all any non-U.S. Muslims here in the United States for a short time, but yet he continues to gain traction.
VAUSE: So he's ramping up the rhetoric. He's not backing down because what? He thinks he's got a winner with this or because this is what the Republican base want to hear this?
PRESTON: I think what it is that there's an incredible amount of frustration from the American public, certainly for the amount of people that are supporting him right now, which is about a third of the Republican Party right now that are frustrated with what's going on with Washington. Look, even though the economy is getting better there is fear over people losing their jobs but right now, with what as you said, with terrorist attacks, there is fear about safety right here in the U.S.
VAUSE: Yes, the number one issue the economy. What, four percent of people polled say it is now the main issue. Its amazing how this race has changed and Donald Trump changing with it by the looks of things.
Mark thanks you for being with us; we appreciate the insight.
PRESTON: Thank you.
VAUSE: OK, now, Donald Trump which you see has been the clear frontrunner in the national polls but the field behind him is starting to shift. Senator Ted Cruz is gaining some ground. Jeff Zeleny has more on that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you very much.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Donald Trump, still on top, but tonight, a new pecking order in the Republican race, and a new lineup on the debate stage. Ted Cruz suddenly gaining ground nationally and in the key state of Iowa, even overtaking Trump by 10 percentage points. The front-runners will be standing next to each other. The first time they've come face-to-face since the personal attacks started, Trump giving CNN's State of the Union a preview.
TRUMP: Because I am more capable. Because I actually get along with people better than he does.
ZELENY: He took it one step further on Fox News Sunday.
TRUMP: You look at how he deals with the Senate, when he goes in like a little bit of a maniac, you're never going to get things done that way.
ZELENY: That generated an unusual response from Cruz, responding on twitter with a 1980s flashback to Flashdance, in honor of my friend Donald Trump, and good-hearted maniacs everywhere.
So far Cruz refuses to hit back publicly at Trump. But behind closed doors, he took the first swing.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are looking for who is prepared to be a Commander In Chief. That is a challenging question for both of them.
ZELENY: Cruz maybe the top target tomorrow night. And Senator Marco Rubio is drawing attention to Cruz's voting record, accusing him on being weak on national security.
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So I guess my point is each time he's had to choose between strong national defense and some of the isolationist tendencies in American policy, he sides with the isolationists.
ZELENY: Rubio is trailing Trump and Cruz is national and state poles. He is hoping to convince voters that he is more electable. And a hypothetical head to head match-up, Hillary Clinton crushes Trump, 50 percent to 40 percent. She's 48-45 over Cruz, but a different story for Marco Rubio. He leads her 48 percent to 45 percent. And that is the underlying question in this entire campaign, which Republican is best positioned to beat Hillary Clinton or whichever Democrat happens to win the nomination. That worries some Republican leaders and the party establishment. Is Donald Trump strong enough to take on Hillary Clinton in the general election? It's one of the questions that may be answered at the debate on Tuesday night.
Jeff Zeleny, CNN, Las Vegas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Well, throughout this GOP Primary there has been a lot of talk about a civil war within the Republican Party: the insiders versus the outsiders, Donald Trump versus pretty much everybody else.
For more on that I'm joined now by the two CNN Political Commentators and Analysts, Ana Navarro, who is a supporter of Jeb Bush and a friend of Marco Rubio. Thank you for being with us. And Jeffrey Lord who, I think it's fair to say, is a Donald Trump supporter. Let's talk about this civil war. Will we see that play out tomorrow night on the debate stage?
ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: look, I think there are different factions in the Republican Party and there is a very wide spectrum of diversity of thought on a number of issues, whether it is national security, whether it's foreign policy. You've -- it runs the gambit of where republicans stand right now. One of the big challenges that anybody, anybody who wins the nomination is going to have is bringing everybody under one tent, getting everybody enthused because they're going to need all republicans to come out and vote. Will we see that tomorrow? I think so, because I think there is a battle over the mantle of who is a real outsider versus insider, establishment versus outsider. So I do think you will see some of that tomorrow, some of it more subtle than at other times but you will see it.
VAUSE: Well, Jeffrey, some conservative commentators have said that Donald Trump is trying to burn the Republican Party down from the inside, is that fair?
JEFFREY LORD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: From their perspective I'm sure it is fair. To be perfectly candid, a lot of this has nothing to do with Donald Trump. A lot of this has to do with the Republican Party itself and the trouble that it has gotten itself in over the last handful of years, to the point where I think people very much feel that they promise one thing, they get elected -- they say, oh, if you'll just elect us, and then they get elected. They say, oh, we can't do anything, and they don't do anything. So, a bit of a bait and switch going on; then you add Donald Trump to that situation. This has become incredibly potent. I might add to that matter, Ted Cruz, as well. Ben Carson there for a while. Carly Fiorina for a while.
VAUSE: So, with that in mind, does -- tomorrow night, does Donald Trump -- does he go after Ted Cruz? He's now surging in the polls, and is there a danger because many people see Ted Cruz as that outsider, as a true conservative?
LORD: Right, I think he does have to be careful about going after him from the conservative side. Ana is quite right about that. There are some rumblings on the right, from people who like Donald Trump --
VAUSE: Yes, Rush Limbaugh for one.
LORD: You're right, and so I think he has to be careful about it, and I think he will.
NAVARRO: Donald Trump has to be very careful on how he handles Ted Cruz. The best thing that could happen to Ted Cruz tomorrow is for Donald Trump, who has been leading and who continues to lead in national polls, to punch down to Ted Cruz's level and therefore you know make Cruz rise. And Cruz has -- you know, Cruz is an able debater.
VAUSE: Yes, he is.
NAVARRO: He is legalistic, and he also, you know, he has this flair for drama and uses sense of humor in a way to deflect attacks. I think if Trump goes after him you're going to see a dismissive Ted Cruz use humor or something of that sort to --
VAUSE: But there's no guarantee that Cruz will go after Trump and that sort of leads up to Marco Rubio, doesn't it?
NAVARRO: I don't think that -- I suspect Cruz does not go after Trump proactively.
VAUSE: Right. NAVARRO: I suspect that he will try to deflect any attack from Donald Trump. I think the real fireworks are going to be between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. They are evenly matched. They are both 44 years old. They are both rookie senators. They're both from immigrant Cuban-American parents. They're both lawyers, one is a very legalistic lawyer, a guy who has practiced many years, whose practiced even in front of the Supreme Court. Marco Rubio's more of a political-type lawyer, more poetic in his rhetoric. I think you're going to see both of them go hand in hand.
[00:10:00] VAUSE: And this debate should actually be about national security, and on that issue, it should be Marco Rubio, but Donald Trump is leading. Explain that for us, very quickly.
LORD: Well, I think that he sort of emanates strength and I think that is what the American people are responding to, or a lot of his supporters are responding to.
You know, we get into this sort of policy wonk deal, which we really like, lots of people in the media like it and elsewhere. But I think the average American voter out there is going by their gut and they're saying who is the guy that is going to stand up and really speak, and this is what happened I think with Ronald Reagan years ago.
VAUSE: So saying bomb the (EXPLETIVE DELETED) out of them is enough for the public right now --
LORD: Well, yeah, I mean, we're short-handing it here, but yes.
NAVARRO: Look, I think that Republicans want everything that is as opposite to what we have had with President Obama for seven years as possible and you can get more of that than with Donald Trump. Whereas President Obama has been deliberative; he has been stealth; he's been careful; he chooses his words so carefully; he is conciliatory. With Donald Trump, you know you have this we're going to bomb the hell out of them type of attitude and I think that appeals to Republicans after seven years of a guy who talks and talks and talks very mildly and doesn't do anything.
LORD: In some ways, Donald Trump was begat by Barack Obama.
VAUSE: Nice having you guys here.
LORD: Nice to be here.
NAVARRO: I wish it was a little warmer.
VAUSE: -- issues. Okay, thanks.
LORD: Thank you.
NAVARRO: Thank you.
VAUSE: It was interesting having those two together to talk about the issues because you know, we know that Anna Navarro, a big supporter of Jeb Bush, big supporter of Marco Rubio, not exactly a big fan of Donald Trump like Jeffrey Lord is; but they were civil, which I guess is a sign that maybe they're trying to try to get some of the heat out of this campaign, possibly.
SESAY: Yes, civil is one way of looking at it. And John, as you all know, Tuesday night's debate provides maybe a last-ditch opportunity for some of these candidates who are quite a way down in the polls to try and make an impression on voters ahead of the Iowa caucuses.
VAUSE: Yeah, well, that is why this debate is so important. I know we say that all the time, this is really important, make or break, all that kind of stuff; but this one really is because if you just look at the calendar this is the last debate of the year. Then there will be a couple of days talking about it, analyzing it and then we get into Christmas, into the New Year. Then people start heading off to the polls to actually cast a ballot here.
The first votes will be cast in Iowa and New Hampshire. So for any of these candidates who are trying to cut through, trying to stake a claim, trying to present themselves to the republican voters out there and say listen, I'm the guy who should be your nominee for president, this is really your last chance. So if Donald Trump consumes all the oxygen, which he is very good at doing, then, you know, this is a lost opportunity for the rest of the field. And what a lot of analysts are now saying this is now coming down to this three-way split: you have Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, for everybody else, maybe Chris Christie could get in there on the national security issue because he's very good on that, but for everybody else it is going to be tough for them to actually cut through, stake that claim, tell the voters why they should be the nominee; why they should get their vote. So that's why this debate will be very, very important for a lot of these candidates on stage tomorrow, Isha.
SESAY: It's going to be fascinating. I really am excited about this last GOP debate on the air, John.
VAUSE: Okay and I'll have a lot more on the GOP debate, the Republican Debate, live from Las Vegas in just a moment, after a short break.
SESAY: But first, I'll speak with Republican and Democratic strategists about the tactics we may see from the Presidential Candidates Tuesday night; so stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SESAY: Hello, everyone, we are just hours away from the final U.S. Republican Presidential Debate of the year. Texas Senator, Ted Cruz is heading into the event with new momentum after making huge gains in several polls. CNN's Gary Tuchman spoke with a group of Cruz supporters to find out why he is their candidate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Nine people meeting us at Ted Cruz' Clark County, Nevada headquarters, including the man holding a Cruz fundraiser at his home tonight. You're all supporting Ted Cruz for President. How many of you have
been supporting him from the beginning? So seven of the nine have been with him from the beginning? You, Ron, who are holding the fundraiser, who did you support in the beginning?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump.
TUCHMAN: And what changed?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What changed was he is basically saying the same things now that he said when he opened up "Make America Great". A lot of things have to be done to make America great and he's not really saying what they are.
TUCHMAN: And you think Cruz is?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Cruz is a man of conviction. He's got priorities and he can make American change.
TUCHMAN: Nationally, there is much talk about Cruz' likeability.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He is very much like Ronald Reagan, and he knows how to work with other people but you're talking about the U.S. Senate, in this moment. A lot of those people you didn't want to get along with.
TUCHMAN: Does it trouble you -- even a lot of republicans say they have a tough time not getting along with him.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think they're not getting along with his principles. He's standing on conservative principles, in a bold manner, and he's not going to move to the mushy middle.
TUCHMAN: Do you think Ted Cruz can get along with Democrats?
CROWD: Absolutely. Yes.
TUCHMAN: Why do you think that?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because he is a good person.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You want to get a point across you better have the courage of conviction; that is what this man has. I am not offended by his --
TUCHMAN: What about you?
CASSIDY MCGOWAN, CRUZ SUPPORTER: I just personally think that Cruz is not worried about pleasing everybody, necessarily, and he would rather stick to his own values and what he believes in, and push for conservative principles than have to go into the middle and compromise than what he believes in, to please everyone, to get long with everyone.
TUCHMAN: And how do you feel about it?
BARBARA PERGI, CRUZ SUPPORTER: I think bipartisanship is overrated, that's not what we ask politicians to Washington to do.
TUCHMAN: How important are Cruz' religious beliefs to you?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very.
[00:20:00] TUCHMAN: Is that one of the reasons you're supporting him?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, not really.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's all part of the package, you.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He does what he says and it's a proven package, and that's part of it.
TUCHMAN: So you don't think that he is just the evangelical candidate?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, he is not that.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I see him as a constitutional candidate.
TUCHMAN: And these people believe he is the toughest candidate and feels it's no coincidence his poll numbers are going up in the days since San Bernardino.
When he talks about the carpet bombing is, do you go for that?
CROWD: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think he also says on the front of that he will listen to his generals.
TUCHMAN: We're in Nevada. So what do you think the odds are, being in Nevada, that Ted Cruz will become president? Real quick, give me your numbers quick.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: 50/50.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, yeah, I'm going to say 50/50.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's way too early to say. I think it's going to be strong.
TUCHMAN: Nevada, they put odds on everything right away.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think 100%.
Gary Tuchman, CNN, in Las Vegas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SESAY: Well, for more on the presidential showdown we're joined by Democratic Strategist Bill Carrick and Republican Consultant John Thomas. Gentlemen, welcome to the program. Bill, if I could start with you: quite simply, what are your expectations for tomorrow night's debate?
BILL CARRICK, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think -- this is the last debate before going into the Christmas holidays. It's getting to be decision-making time in Iowa, because you not only have to find your supporters, you've got to get them there. It's a complicated process going to caucuses. It's not like just going to vote. You have to go to a meeting and make a commitment. So it's really -- this is the time where we're getting to a period where people are going to make decisions and those decisions are going to turn it into the organizational qualities.
SESAY: And John, do you think people will be paying more attention to the point that Bill just made?
JOHN THOMAS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Well, as we close the years some of the struggling campaigns; they've got to make moves tomorrow night. If they don't, folks like Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, you know, they need to start reevaluating whether or not they're going to go into the New Year. Forget Iowa, but can they go the distance? You know, John Kasich has to stand out from the crowd. Ben Carson suspended his campaign to go to Israel and now he is back and his poll numbers are drastically down. He has to show people that he is even awake, number one, but that he actually has foreign policy chops, which I think the electorate is questioning at this point.
SESAY: I think given recent events in France and California, the San Bernardino attacks, the expectation is that national security will be front and center. Who does that benefit in this debate?
CARRICK: You know, it's a funny thing, on just style points and coming off as strong and somebody is going to stand up for America, Trump has been winning that hands down so far. Now, the other candidates want to show that they're substantive, they have real policy. They want to explain the difference between themselves and President Obama, but they're going to be more substantive and they're going to compete with the Trump show, which is pretty dramatic and he has been winning on emotion. They've got to really take it to them on the issues and prove that he is not up to the job.
THOMAS: I think Bill hit it on the head. The challenge is the candidate that is not Trump, whether you're Rubio or Cruz, have to be the substantive anti-Trump and be that GOP establishment candidate ---
SESAY: But you need emotion as well.
THOMAS: It's true, and you can't be too much establishment because we're running in an insider environment. So it's really becoming the person, the answer to Trump tomorrow night, and national security really plays into Marco Rubio's hands. So we'll see -- look, Marco hits his marks every time, but that is not going to be good enough because right now he is third and fourth in every poll. So he has to move up. We'll see how he does tomorrow.
SESAY: Do they need to go head to head? Do they need to get down in the mud, so to speak, with Donald Trump tomorrow? Some have said that's unwise because that's what Trump likes and that is what he is good at. But at this stage in the race do the other candidates need to engage him directly?
CARRICK: So far Trump has had more mud than the rest of the field put together, so they're not going to win the mud bath. Now they can take it to him and prove that he is not up to being president. We've seen a lot of outlandish statements in the last few weeks that people are beginning to question a little bit, but none of those candidates have taken it to him in a substantive way. I don't think they need to get into personality back and forth but if they can deal with it on substance, they will score points.
THOMAS: I think the real fight you want to look for tomorrow is between Cruz and Rubio and who has better chops on national security and fighting terrorism. I think they're both positioning for that second, that anti-Trump second place. It wouldn't be wise though going against Donald Trump who, your station just gave him 16 minutes of a rally of uninterrupted air time. Trying to compete with that today is very difficult.
SESAY: As you talk about that and the amount of media air time Trump is getting, across the board, not just with this network, I'm going to ask you what the Republican Establishment will be looking for tomorrow night. I mean, there is some concern that
[00:25:00] he is hurting the brand. What are your thoughts, in terms of the lens they will look at this debate through?
THOMAS: Well, first of all, I think the Republican Establishment is hoping that Trump slips up so badly that he doesn't make it past tomorrow night. That is not likely to happen. They're looking for Rubio to prove his merit, that he can stand toe-to-toe with Donald Trump that he connects with the American electorate. But look, we may be going to a brokered convention. I think the GOP's prob -- the Establishment's problems are not going to be answered tomorrow night.
SESAY: When you hear that "brokered convention", does that fill you with glee?
CARRICK: I think I was prob -- in 1980 I was involved in the last time we were involved in a contest for either parties convention was Senator Kennedy against President Carter. And it's a really taxing thing. It really knocks it out of a Party.
SESAY: And I just want to point out for our viewers there were some pictures we just put up a short moment ago, live pictures of a Trump rally there in Las Vegas. As you say he is getting all the attention; the question is how does it play out tomorrow and what does it mean for the convention down the road?
THOMAS: You know, I think Donald Trump, whether you agree with him or like him or not, you have to agree that his statements on immigration have really touched part of the American electorate, and not necessarily that they agree with his statements but it really hit on the fear that the current Administration, with President Obama, is not doing enough to fight the terror, and that people feel that they're not safe; and that Donald Trump is the only candidate so far that is calling the President out and saying I'm going to take bold steps to keep you safe. I don't think the rest of the field, although I don' think they need to go that far, I don't think the rest of the field has really laid out the case of how they're going to make Americans safe.
CARRICK: Somebody needs to emerge out of tomorrow night to be the challenger to Trump that the people who are anti-Trump, which are considerable, to rally around. So far they're split all over the place. They need to get behind one candidate.
SESAY: Bill, John, we're going to continue this conversation in the next hour. It's great to have you with us to get your insight and perspective. Thank you very much.
THOMAS: Great to be here.
SESAY: And we will go back to Vegas after the break for a look at what to expect from the candidates at CNN's Republican Presidential Debate Tuesday.
[00:30:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: You are watching "CNN Newsroom," live from Los Angeles; I'm Isha Sesay.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm John Vause live in Las Vegas. This is a city known for its high stakes bouts and in a matter of hours, the U.S Republican Presidential Candidates will square off, right here. It will be their final debate of the year, a chance for each candidate to try to differentiate themselves from what has been a very crowded field. Right now Donald Trump leads that field. He's lost some ground in a poll in Iowa lately, but, of course, you would not know that if you look at this crowd here. He is leading nationally by a very wide margin, according to some of the national polls; and here he was just a short time ago at a rally with supporters, right here in Las Vegas.
Florida Senator, Marco Rubio, held this rally a few hours ago also here, in Las Vegas. He is gunning for Mr. Trump. Rubio is in third place in the most recent polls, behind Donald Trump, as well as Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
CNN Political Analyst, Josh Rogan, joins me now to discuss what we should expect from this republican presidential debate. Of course, everything has changed now; focus is now on national security after the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. Again, Donald Trump is leading that field. We heard him, just a short time ago, talking about what he would do; deport Syrian refugees in the United States. Clearly this is hitting a mark with a lot of Republican voters. Why? Why is that, because it's not appealing to most Americans, if you look at the polls?
JOSH ROGAN, POLITICAL ANALYST, CNN: Sure. Well, what most Republicans can easily agree is that the Obama Administration Middle East policy has been muddled and unclear. So the first level of any foreign policy debate for a GOP candidate is to establish a clear, concise message that seems strong and it seems tough that anyone can understand. Trump was the first to actually do that; even though his policy positions may not actually make sense on a policy level the voters can see where he is at. He is relatively consistent and that is enough for now. We're going to get into the debate over policy as the debate --
VAUSE: Well let's go forward to tomorrow night, do we get into the debate or is it enough for Donald Trump to keep his frontrunner status by just talking in very broad brush strokes? We're going to bomb the heck out of them. We're going to send the refugees back. We're going to build a wall to keep the Mexicans out, that kind of stuff.
ROGAN: Sure, it's enough for Trump, but it's not enough for the other candidates. They have to make some sort of progress; they have to show some sort of expertise.
VAUSE: Why the difference though? Why is it Donald Trump can get away with it but Cruz and Rubio can't?
ROGAN: Well Trump is running as someone who has no experience. Cruz and Rubio are running as senators who have the requisite expertise to be commander-in-chief. They have to back that up with specific proposals. They also have records. So when they say things, people can check that against the way they voted. Trump has no record, so he has very little accountability.
VAUSE: Okay. If you look at national security, surely this is something that would be in Marco Rubio's wheelhouse. This is something he's been fairly consistent on over the last couple of years, if you look at what he's been saying. So why is it that more Republican voters trust Donald Trump on national security than someone like a Marco Rubio?
ROGAN: Well, there had always been this split inside the Republican Party between people who want a more assertive, aggressive, militaristic foreign policy and those who want to see American power used more sparsely. Ted Cruz has tried to capture the group of people inside the Republican Party who want less intervention, less wars. Now, as the war on ISIS gets worse the Republican Party is actually moving back to its previous position. New polls show that more Republicans than not approve ground troops to fight against ISIS, for the first time in over a year. So the ground is moving towards the Marco Rubio position; the question is will it move fast enough for Marco Rubio to benefit?
VAUSE: Okay, and we do have these statements, these very controversial statements, this very controversial plan coming from Donald Trump about this temporary ban on Muslims from entering the United States, deporting Syrian refugees who are already in the country. This is an issue which obviously appeals to some of the Republican voters, but alienates most voters in the United States. So does it get to the point where they move so far to the right that you can win the nomination but you have no chance in the general election? ROGAN: Well we always have this dynamic in a Republican primary before an election. Talking to Republican operatives, here on the ground in Las Vegas, what they say is this, once the general election comes the Republican party will then coalesce around its familiar, paternalistic, militaristic center. So the primary will happen, and then the general election will happen, and the positions will change; and most of the republican voters will go along with whatever the Republican positions is, at the end of the day. That's the conventional wisdom --
VAUSE: (Inaudible) can't bring it back, like, what happened to Mitt Romney, right?
ROGAN: That's the risk, and that's why you see Ted Cruz trying to put forth the policies that don't go quite as far as Donald [00:35:00] Trump, because he knows Donald Trump is too far. So he wants to find that middle ground. The problem is that middle ground keeps moving. Marco Rubio has been more consistent, but he's still not where he has a problem now but it could be a benefit for him late later.
VAUSE: Josh, good to speak with you. It will be an interesting night tomorrow night. Of course, all of these positions being staked out will be a great night to find out exactly where all of this is now heading over the next couple of days.
ROGAN: We'll be watching.
VAUSE: Okay, Josh, thank you. And the final debate of the year, among the Republican Candidates, right here on CNN. Our Wolf Blitzer will, in fact, be the moderator. Coverage starts Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. Pacific time, right here in Las Vegas; that's 6 p.m. on the East. And in Hong Kong, the coverage begins Wednesday 7:00 a.m.; 8:00 a.m. in Tokyo. So set your alarm clocks and get up early. I'll have much more from Lost Wages in just a moment, Las Vegas, but first let's head back to Isha in Los Angeles.
SESAY: Thanks, John; well, the newest "Star Wars" premiered just hours ago in L.A. I'll show you what I saw and who I talked to on the red carpet.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VAUSE: Welcome back, everybody; I'm John Vause live in Las Vegas, where, of course, the Republican Presidential Candidates will square off on Tuesday night. And watching closely, of course, will be the other side of the political spectrum, the Democrats. A short time ago I spoke with Democrat Strategist, and Hillary Clinton supporter, Paul Begala. He is also a CNN Political Analyst and he told me what he will be looking for in this debate.
VAUSE: For more on the view of this debate, from the Democratic side, I'm joined by CNN Political Analyst Paul Begala, also Hillary Clinton supporter; Paul, great to have you with us.
First up, what are you expecting tomorrow night? I guess, what are you hoping for tomorrow night, as a Democrat? PAUL BEGALA, POLITICAL ANALYST, CNN: Well, what I'm hoping for [00:40:00] is what we saw in Las Vegas a few nights ago, a 13-second knockout by the UFC Champion, MacGregor. What I'm expecting is there will be a lot of bashing.
VAUSE: Right.
BEGALA: That's the one thing that you - and Obama bashing, I suspect. That's what unifies Republicans, I get that; but the more interesting thing is how they differentiate among themselves. There used to always be an establishment favorite who emerged early and then won: George W. Bush, even Mitt Romney. This time there doesn't seem to be one and, in fact, it is the outsiders who seem to be dominating, and that's fascinating to me.
VAUSE: Okay, so you're talking about differentiating the candidates. How do they do that right now because it seems they're in a bind because Donald Trump is saying a lot of (inaudible) things that are popular amongst republican voters but not popular with the country. So how do they deal with that?
BEGALA: Right, this is the problem: a primary is about motivating your base, your most committed supporters. A general election is about winning the middle. So you don't ever want to do anything in a primary that makes it impossible to win in the general. That is what the Republicans are doing now, they're staking out positions that are so far extreme, anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic, anti-women, anti-gay, that it's going to make it impossible to capture the middle. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton, even running against a socialist has not been pulled so far out to the left that she can't win the center in November 2016. So that's the problem Republican have right now, and I think the smart ones know it, I just don't' think they can stop it.
VAUSE: Didn't they have this problem last time around, and they had it all topsy and they looked at it and said we need to make the party more inclusive, we need to entice minorities, we need to have more voters in this process, and they're not?
BEGALA: The Republican Party is becoming older, angrier and whiter as the country is becoming young and more diverse. So they are moving in the opposite direction of where the electorate is. This is a death spiral for a political party. I fully expect for them to pull out of it. You can never count on a political party to self-destruct. I saw the Democrats do this, back in the '70s, where they went off to the fringe, and had a couple of cycles where my party carried one state or four states.
The Republicans are at risk of losing in a major way an election they should win. In fact, no democrat has done so in my lifetime. So, they should do this by history, but they seem hell-bent on taking themselves off a cliff.
VAUSE: Okay, now, let's talk about Hillary Clinton for a while because we haven't heard a lot from Hillary Clinton. I know there is a GOP debate coming up, and there's a lot of talk about the Republican Party right now, but it seems the last time I heard from Hillary Clinton she was talking about Donald Trump and I can't remember the last time I heard from Bernie Sanders. does this help or hurt?
BEGALA: Right. Hillary, I think it actually helps a bit. when I looked at this race, I thought I didn't know how she could dance alone in that spotlight as a frontrunner for two years. It is an unforgiving spotlight. It's a withering spotlight. She had some early mistakes; she recovered from them. Now Mr. Trump has seized the camera. I am okay with that because I think what he is doing is pulling his party off to the extreme. At the same time, Hillary is going to give them a major address tomorrow at the University of Minnesota on Terrorism, which is a strength for her. Again, normally democrats, frankly, are seen as weaker on national security and women are often seen as weaker. She is the national leader on -- when you ask people in the poll who is the strongest to confront terrorism, so she will be playing to that as the Republicans are tearing each other apart. That may be a nice contrast.
VAUSE: Okay, Paul Begala thanks for being with us. Appreciate it.
BEGALA: John thanks so much.
VAUSE: Thank you. And, as they say the Democrats fall in line, the Republicans fall in love; and right now they have fallen in love with Donald Trump who is leading by a big margin on a number of national polls and a lot more of our coverage from here in Las Vegas when we come back. A short break right now; you're watching CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[00:45:00] (SPORT HEADLINES)
[00:47:36] ISHA SESAY: Hello, everyone. (HEADLINES) All right, shifting gears now: when the galaxy far, far away came all the way to Hollywood Boulevard, "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" premiered just hours ago, right here in L.A. I was there on the red carpet to talk with the stars and the fans.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
There has been so much secrecy surrounding "Star Wars Episode 7." The movie trailers barely have given away any of the plot and that has generated a unique level of excitement, an excitement that is very much shared by the film stars.
Do you enjoy these things, these --
HARRISON FORD, ACTOR, "STAR WARS": Oh, I love it, Isha. I can't think of anything better to do. We sort of dress up and do this in my backyard on Wednesdays, because Wednesday's a special kind of day for this. Come on.
SESAY: Daisy, how do you feel as the big night is here?
DAISY RIDLEY, ACTOR, "STAR WARS": I was feeling sick with nerves, and then I started and it's all kind of cool. It's great.
JOHN BOYEGA, ACTOR, "STAR WARS": Yeah, I feel great. I feel fantastic and I feel surprisingly relaxed.
GEORGE LUCAS, CREATOR, "STAR WARS": It was - I mean, you have all of these memories going off, popping off in your head because the smell of it, the scene where Chewy played chess, or whatever that game was; sitting in the cockpit, all of that, I mean, you know, it's like going back to your old school.
SESAY: The film is about to be shown to the world effectively. How are you feeling?
[00:50:00] LUPITA NYANGO, ACTRESS, "STAR WARS": I'm feeling relief and excitement because finally the fans get to see the film. It belongs to them after all.
GWENDOLINE CHRISTIE, ACTRESS, "STAR WARS": and I think that is what these films instill in us. They stimulate our imagination and fire up our imaginations. They work their way into our dreams. They make us laugh. They make us cry, but they give us hope.
SESAY: According to the films director, J. J. Abrams, in addition to the excitement there is also a little bit of nerves. This is the moment though that directors live for, the unveiling of a film, the sharing of it with an audience. Does it come with nerves for you?
J.J. ABRAMS, DIRECTOR, STAR WARS: Oh, of course. I mean, there are nerves just going into the editing room, working with an editor. There are certainly nerves showing the movie to a thousand-plus people tonight, but I feel very confident about the work that was done by the actors. So if nothing else I know people will enjoy watching the performances.
SESAY: All the stars have headed in for their first glimpse of "Star Wars Episode 7". The fans get their chance to finally see the movie this Friday and then they can be the judge as to whether the force really is strong with J. J. Abrams and this latest installment.
Isha Sesay, CNN, Hollywood.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SESAY: Well, Disney, which now owns the Star War's brand after buying Lucas Film in 2012, stands to make a tremendous amount of money for successful launch. For more, I'm joined by Sandro Monetti, Managing Editor with the "L.A. Business Journal". Great to have you with us. Listen, everyone is looking to see how this movie will do at the box office, and the bar is set very, very high.
SANDRO MONETTI, MANAGING EDITOR, "LA BUSINESS JOURNAL": Well, first of all, may the force be with you, Isha. Very nice to be with you tonight and the bar is set very high. The expectation for this film is if it's not the biggest film of all time it will be a failure. So that is pretty much to live up to, but the huge advance box office suggests that it's well on its way.
SESAY: But it's not just the box office takes that's important here, it's also the merchandising. Help us understand how important the merchandising is to Disney's revenue intake here.
MONETTI: Oh, huge. I mean, you mentioned in the intro there that Disney paid $4.05 billion to buy Lucas Film, the makers of "Star Wars", three years ago. At the time that seemed a bit iffy, in terms of a deal; but now, with the movie projected to make $2.5 billion, that's just a drop in the ocean compared to the revenue that will be generated by the merchandising. I'm talking toys, t-shirts, other product tie-ins. That could bring in as much as $5 billion. Disney has about 20-percent of the royalties. So it's figured that just on the action figures and other toys, they'll sell for $2.5 billion, meaning $500 million for Disney -- just every time you buy one of those, and I know you've got several, the $25 action figures, think of money going into the Disney coffers. Money well spent.
SESAY: Money well spent. Let me ask you this, what is your though on how this film has been marketed, the direct marketing. It's notable that the trailers barely show anything of the plot.
It really speaks to their confidence in the film they have.
MONETTI: Classes will be taught in future years about this "Star Wars" marketing campaign. It's been a masterpiece every step of the way. They've very carefully staggered announcements over the years. Cast appearances, little bits of trailers here and there, the product launches. I mean they could have done it just blow everything in one go, here is everything; but no, Disney has managed everything so supremely well that it served to build anticipation, not just in the United States but around the world.
Here in America, "Star Wars" is as well known as Elvis Presley, apple pie and Marilyn Monroe; but China, which, of course, is the most important overseas market to the United States, they don't have the same familiarity with "Star Wars" so they're challenged there, in the marketing. It's been more of an educational one, to build the enthusiasm there. On a global level Disney has really delivered.
SESAY: The brand tie-ins have really been incredible. Every time I turn around there is a new tie-in. Has Disney set a new standard for this as well, for this element of the game?
MONETTI: Well, also the merchandisers know that "Star Wars" sells. So every single product you can imagine has "Star Wars" branding on it. I know that for Christmas you were hoping for the Luke Skywalker high heels.
SESAY: I want a light saber; that is what I want for Christmas.
MONETTI: Well, no, these are shoes that sell for $323, with blue light sabers in the heels, so every time you stagger back from your Christmas party -
SESAY: Walk back, thank you.
MONETTI: -- you can press a function on your shoes and hear the sound of space battles as you walk. [00:55:00] SESAY: As people flee in my wake. How much does Disney
have riding on this? I know that you said just over 4 billion that they purchased Lucas for back in 2012, but how much does this matter to the other parts of the company, in terms of leveraging the success of the markets since the level of success?
MONETTI: It's too big to fail. It has to succeed. Failure is not an option, which is why they've been so careful. I mean, we're talking about the theme park business, as well. Star Wars Lands being built in California and Florida, as well. We're talking about the spinoff, the tie-in's, the sequels. Every level of the company is affected by "Star Wars." It's the biggest thing to happen to Disney since Mickey Mouse. SESAY: It's so exciting. I know you're seeing the movie in a couple
of days.
MONETTI: For the first of many times.
SESAY: For the first of many times. I think you said three in total. Monetti, I appreciate it greatly. Thank you so much, enjoy the film. And you are watching CNN Newsroom; I'm Isha Sesay in Los Angeles.
VAUSE: I'm John Vause, live in Las Vegas. You know, they say politics is show business for ugly people and this will be the scene of Tuesday night's Republican Presidential Debate. Isha and I will be right back with much more on that after a short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
