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Westerners Warned of Possible Threat in Beijing; Clinton Leads, Sanders Gains in New CNN Poll; Iraqi Military Forces Closing in on ISIS in Ramadi. Aired 1:30-2p ET

Aired December 24, 2015 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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RIVERS: -- Tiananmen Square, killing five people. That attack, according to the government, was perpetrated by separatists from the country's Western Province.

Now it is unclear if the yellow alert issued by the Chinese government had anything to do with the alerts issued by these several foreign embassies on Thursday. But what is clear is that there is a heightened sense of awareness here in the city -- Matt rivers, CNN, Beijing.

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BASH: A brand-new CNN poll shows Hillary Clinton still holding a commanding lead in the days after the latest Democratic debate. But when you compare her to some of her potential Republican rivals, it's a different story. We'll show you the match-ups next.

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BASH: Ah, the CNN political music. It is the Race for the White House getting even closer. We're about a little more than a month away from Iowa and on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is leading but Bernie Sanders is gaining.

In a new CNN/ORC poll, Clinton tops Senator Bernie Sanders 50 percent to 34 percent, that's an 8-point slide for Clinton and 4-point jump for Sanders.

CNN political director David Chalian joins me live so we can break this all down.

David, besides the overall results, we're seeing voters shift a bit back towards Clinton, following the debate that she had on Saturday night. Walk us through those numbers.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Right, this is a really interesting stat, because we interviewed people both before and after the Democratic debate Saturday night. And clearly that slide you were talking about, nationally, where she was going down a little bit, that was the trend we were seeing before the debate.

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CHALIAN: After debate, take a look at this: Clinton 60 percent, Sanders 27 percent. So before the debate, it was a much closer race, it was an 8-point race, after the debate, it was a 33-point race.

That is just to say -- and you remember, that debate was focused largely on foreign policy, on the battle against ISIS and those are Hillary Clinton's strong suits in this race. She is dominating Bernie Sanders by 60 points or so when it comes to who is best to handle those key issues, that was the focus of the debate and clearly Democratic voters responded thinking she was indeed the better candidate.

BASH: David, I love talking to you on the air because now viewers get to hear the conversations that you and I have sitting in your office. So let's talk about another point in the poll, 59 percent of Democrats say their chances of winning the White House are better with Clinton. That's down from 69 percent in March.

So what does that tell you?

CHALIAN: Well, it is always a good thing, I think, when, if you're Hillary Clinton and you're sitting -- or your campaign operation and you're sitting in the Brooklyn headquarters, Dana, you look and say, wow, 60 percent of the Democratic Party thinks we are their best shot, that's even more than the 50 percent support we have in the poll.

So, yes, the number's down a little bit and Hillary Clinton has come down from her highs this year but I would still look at that number if I was the Clinton campaign and think, if that means that some of Bernie Sanders voters believe that Hillary Clinton is the best shot to win the White House, that's not a bad place to be.

BASH: OK. Now I want our viewers to take a look at some numbers that you and I both thought were really, really interesting. It's the challenge that Hillary Clinton faces when she's matched up with the top Republican contenders.

Check that out. She does the worst against Marco Rubio, down 3 points, not terrible but he looks like he's beating her. Cruz would best her by 2 points and Trump, she would beat him by 2 points, now it's all within the margin of error, David.

But again, you're sitting in Brooklyn, you're in the Hillary Clinton headquarters, what do those numbers tell you?

CHALIAN: Well, Dana, I just want to focus on what you just said, they're within the margin of error. You and I have talked about this. This is going to be a competitive general election race. I know we're still a year out and obviously we don't know the full landscape of what sort of the body politic will look like come next fall. But no matter who the competitor is, she is matching up really closely with them, which just indicates we are a divided country and this is going to be a hard-fought race.

When I look at inside those numbers against -- Hillary Clinton against Marco Rubio or Hillary Clinton against Ted Cruz, they are doing extraordinarily well with independent voters. That is the key to them edging her out in these general election match-ups.

She ties among independent voters with Donald Trump but Cruz and Rubio get the lion's share of independent voters against Hillary Clinton and that obviously she's been more focused on wooing Democratic voters right now for the primary but that's going to be a key mission of hers, should she get the nomination to move quickly to shore up those independent voters.

BASH: You talked about the fact that we don't yet know what the political landscape is going to be like. It almost makes me laugh because if I would have walked into your house this time last year and said Donald Trump is going to run as a Republican and, by the way, he's going to be like 20 points ahead of everybody else at the end of 2015, you might have fired me.

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BASH: But anyway, it is where we are, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a really nasty war of words going into Christmas -- bah, humbug. Trump is defending his use of a vulgar Yiddish term in his attack on Clinton. Listen to what he told Greta Van Susteren last night on FOX.

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DONALD TRUMP, ENTREPRENEUR: Well, to me it always meant to get beaten badly. I mean, and that's what happened with Hillary Clinton, she got beaten badly. But to me, that's really a reference to getting beaten and really pretty decisively.

And when I said it nobody in the audience thought anybody about it. They clapped. They didn't view that as being a horrible thing.

And then all of a sudden I get back in and people are calling about it. And you know, when they checked it out, some pretty quality people have been using that term over the years.

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BASH: I haven't used it. I haven't heard you use it. But that's for another discussion.

He also tweeted, "BE CAREFUL," all caps, "BE CAREFUL."

Play Trump whisperer, what does that mean?

CHALIAN: Well, that is -- I mean, I read that as a very clear warning shot across the bow. I really think that is a reference to Bill Clinton, his past and he is basically warning that if Hillary Clinton is going to bring up sexism charges against Donald Trump, he's going to put everything on table, including Bill Clinton's controversial past with women.

And that is going to be a whole new ballgame here. It's not that the Clintons are not used to seeing those kinds of attacks from Republicans but you and I know Donald Trump tends to deliver these attacks unlike any politician we've ever seen before. So it means it will require --

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CHALIAN: -- a different type of response as well.

BASH: That is a very interesting teaser for our 2016 election.

David Chalian, thanks so much.

We'll have a lot more discussion about all of this, the battle between Ted Cruz and the mainstream media -- and it started with a cartoon making fun of his daughters. Our political panel weighs in on the latest salvo from Cruz.

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BASH: In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton is the candidate Democrats trust the most to handle the major issues. That's according to new CNN/ORC polling. Democrats trust Clinton over Bernie Sanders by wide margins on foreign policy and the war against ISIS. They also think that Clinton can best handle gun policy and the economy.

Joining us for us for a Christmas Eve edition to talk all politics, our political commentator, Maria Cardona; "Bloomberg View" columnist Josh Rogan and CNN political commentator and conservative columnist, Amanda Carpenter.

Maria, let's start with you, let's talk about the Democrats.

What do you make of Clinton being so far ahead of Sanders, specifically on the issues that people are paying attention to, voters?

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think what people are looking at is her past very robust experience on the issues of national security and foreign policy. Her years as secretary of state and, I think, very importantly, the way that she has talked about these issues during the Democratic debates, she has talked about them, not just with ease and with expertise but she brought to the table nuances and a way of explaining things to people, that I think especially Democrats really understood and was very relevant to having them choose who they thought --

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CARDONA: -- could go against not just whoever the Republican nominee would be but who the person would be to keep them safest in this world, who we all know and everyone is thinking about. They feel very unsafe. And so I think those have been very winning issues for her.

BASH: Exactly.

And Josh Rogan, when you think about it, it wasn't that long ago that Bernie Sanders was really making inroads with Democratic primary voters because of his discussion about the economy and income inequality, those are the cornerstones of his campaign and in an interview that aired on CNN's "NEW DAY," Sanders said he's fighting for the middle class, it's disappearing. Listen to this.

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SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VT.: Trillions of dollars of wealth have gone from working families to the 0.1 percent whose percentage of wealth they now own has doubled.

So what we are seeing also is a situation where the average American is working longer hours for low wages, 58 percent of all new income going to the top 1 percent. We have a massive situation in terms of wealth and income inequality in America today. And I want to change that.

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BASH: So Josh, he's passionate about that position. He certainly gets a lot of people fired up and yet, in the polls, he's trailing her among Democratic primary voters on the economy.

Why do you think that is?

JOSH ROGAN, "BLOOMBERG VIEW": Well, I think there's two things going on. One is that Bernie is actually up 8 points in the latest CNN/ORC poll compared to the last one on the economy, that shows that on the specific issue of the economy, his strategies having some results but that's caught up in the overall growing and realization that Hillary Clinton is running away with this nomination.

And as voters become accustomed to that, it's going to be harder and harder for Bernie to make progress that really makes a dent in the overall campaign. There's also another thing going on.

Bernie doesn't talk really about foreign policy. If you go to his website -- and I did before the show -- it's not on there. You have to go down below like Apple subsidies and how to save the oceans.

If you click through a few times, you'll find something about the Iraq war and how it was bad and all of that stuff but, in the end, this is not something he's engaged on, it's not something he wants to talk about. It's not something that he has detailed policies about.

So as the overall national security foreign policy issue eclipses the economy and the discussion of the campaign, Bernie's increasingly disadvantaged and I think that's what you're seeing here.

BASH: No question about that.

Amanda, let's talk about your old boss, Ted Cruz, and his familiar fight with the mainstream media, it's showing no signs of letting up. Yesterday we all saw he slammed "The Washington Post" over a cartoon that depicted his two young daughters as trained monkeys which, we should say, "The Post" editor took down.

So Cruz, of course, is fighting back, I would say Cruz style, with a sense of humor but a biting one.

Look at that cartoon that he tweeted out, seems like a better idea for a cartoon, Hillary Clinton and her lap dogs, the lap dogs being "The Washington Post" and "The New York Times."

So as a former comms person -- communications person for Senator Cruz, you think he's handling this the right way?

AMANDA CARPENTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, sure. Home run. I love it when attacks are answered with humor. There's the so-called outrage machine, especially on the Right where we're stuck in a state of perpetual outrage sometimes. So when we can lighten up and say this attack is unfair, I'm not going to let it get me down but I'm not going to back down, I think that's the exact right way to handle it. He won, they took it down. They are going to have some fun with it from now on.

BASH: Maria, what do you think about that?

CARDONA: I actually think that his outrage on this was very well deserved. I think it was very inappropriate for "The Washington Post" to have put up this cartoon to begin with. The cartoon is funny; I think it was a little bit unfair that it was geared towards Hillary Clinton but that's fine. She's a big girl, she can take it. I don't think it was a dent in her campaign at all.

But I do think that Amanda is right, the right wing does need to inject a little bit of humor from time to time in how they react to issues. So good for him.

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BASH: Go ahead, quickly.

ROGAN: Yes, I just think the rule of thumb here for the media should be, treat it like the Mafia, families don't get touched. All right?

"The Washington Post" opened itself up to this one and gave Ted Cruz an opportunity to attack them and he did. So that was probably a mistake.

BASH: Well, thank you, I have to say, as we end this discussion, one of my favorite moments of 2015 when Donald Trump called Ted Cruz a maniac and he responded with the "Flashdance" moment, with the song, "Maniac," playing. (CROSSTALK)

BASH: Thank you all, have a very merry Christmas, all of you.

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BASH: And straight ahead, details on the mission to liberate Ramadi from the hands of ISIS. We'll show you the first pictures from inside the Iraqi city and break down what this means --

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-- for the bigger fight against ISIS.

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BASH: A developing story: you're looking there at live pictures of activists gathering on Chicago's Michigan Avenue. About 75 people are there to protest what they have called Black Christmas. It's been peaceful and calm and controlled by police and it's part of a continuing effort to pressure Mayor Rahm Emanuel to step down.

Many are upset with his handling of the fatal shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald. Emanuel's administration fought for more than a year to keep the police dashcam footage of the shooting out of the public eye and the activists hope to disrupt last-minute holiday shopping.

As you see there, as we mentioned, it is peaceful, relatively small. We're going to monitor it and get more on it for you as the story develops.

But for now, we're going to turn to military officials saying that Iraqi forces are closing in on the ISIS town of Ramadi and they're closing in on ISIS, I should say, in Ramadi, and that is key because -- look at these pictures.

This is an incredibly dangerous mission. Soldiers are slowly working their way through the devastated neighborhoods, looking for ISIS terrorists. U.S. Colonel Steven Warren explains how improved explosive devices or IEDs are also posing a grave threat.

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COL. STEVEN WARREN, OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE: This enemy has set up defensive belts. So they use IEDs, the very same IEDs that we faced here in Iraq years ago but now they use them in clusters, as if they were mine fields.

They will rig entire houses to explode if you come near them. So the Iraqis have to very deliberately probe this defensive area and find a weak spot.

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BASH: Let's discuss these developments. We're joined by our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr; --

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BASH: -- CNN global affairs analyst Kimberly Dozier and CNN military analyst and Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.

Now, Barbara, let's start with you. This battle is fascinating because Iraqis are using Sunni forces to try to retake Ramadi. It's a very different kind of operation, though, than the so-called Sunni awakening 10 years ago. Why is that?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, it really is ,Dana. And I think one of the key reasons is you do not have U.S. troops on the ground. You do have some U.S. advisers at a nearby military base but they are no longer out there in the field with the Iraqis, whether they are Shia or Sunni.

The U.S. is very much limiting its real action to airstrikes to try to help pound some of the ISIS targets as the Iraqis are moving through. So you have mainly the Iraqi regular forces moving through Ramadi right now and in waiting are Sunni tribal fighters, several hundred trained by the United States that are going to hopefully in the eyes of the U.S. be the holding force, if you will.

Once Ramadi is retaken, if it is retaken, the Sunni tribal fighters will now move in and try and hold the city, get Sunni residents back in but the U.S. always very concerned about any prospect for further sectarian violence as that unfolds.

BASH: Absolutely.

And Kimberly, what will success in Ramadi, assuming that happens, mean for the next big targets where ISIS is in control, Mosul and Fallujah?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, this is a real confidence building measure for the Iraqi government and the Iraqi army. They were able to take the city, of they're almost to the center of it, with Iraqi forces not backed by Shiite militia groups but instead backed by U.S. intelligence and U.S. coalition airstrikes.

So Fallujah, a lot of people don't realize, is right between Baghdad and Ramadi. So Fallujah will now be easier for the forces to isolate. You could see the Obama administration's measures start to really take hold. We're also hearing today that ISIS has lost territory to Kurdish and Arab rebels that are U.S.-backed inside Northern Syria.

So one by one, you could see these measures begin to produce effective results on the ground.

BASH: And, Colonel, you heard Kimberly say there that this could be a confidence building measure. It was only seven months ago that the city of Ramadi fell to ISIS because officials believe Iraqi forces fled in the face of an ISIS assault.

So why do they have this confidence now that they didn't have before?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Dana, basically you have got a unit that is now more cohesive. You have different types of Iraqi forces there and you have a totally different military structure that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has put into place.

Gone is the cronyism of the past and in more or less is a degree of competence that we haven't seen in the Iraqi forces in a long time. So they are basically putting their best foot forward in Ramadi and they are going to try to continue that as long as they don't have significant losses in Ramadi. They are going to continue that on the way to hopefully to Fallujah and then beyond to Mosul.

BASH: And, Barbara, there's talk about loosening the rules of engagement.

What would that mean?

STARR: Well, that's pretty uncertain at the moment because there's been a lot of talk. Even from some of the Republican presidential candidates that you saw, Dana, like Ted Cruz, who talks about carpet bombing, the concern is if you go to indiscriminate bombing, there will be increased significant casualties amongst civilians that are mixed in with the ISIS population.

So how do you really loosen the rules that will allow you to conduct more airstrikes, which will put more pressure on ISIS on the ground without putting more civilians at risk?

That's the debate right now. They might be looking at changing some of the rules on how they coordinate airstrikes, the level of intelligence they have to have but it's a very delicate dance here because if you have looser rules, you do have the risk of those civilian casualties.

BASH: You absolutely do, which there are people, innocent civilians, ISIS is using as potential targets for that very reason.

Kimberly, if momentum of the coalition, if this continues, how do you think ISIS is going to counter?

DOZIER: We are already beginning to see some signs of their future strategy. I think they will switch to just like they did, the Ba'athist military members, who make up the backbone of ISIS. Back in 2003 when they were Saddam's loyal officers and realized they couldn't win a direct fight with the U.S. military. They formed themselves into insurgent ranks and started carrying out bombs in cities. The IEDs were planted everywhere.

So I think you're going to see that metamorphosis from a traditional military that's trying to hold territory to a terrorist group.

BASH: Unfortunately, we're going to have to leave it there. I could talk to you about this all day.