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Legal View with Ashleigh Banfield

Presidential Race Polls; State of the Union Speech; Woman Invited to Presidential Address; Turkey Suicide Attack. Aired 12- 12:30p ET

Aired January 12, 2016 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[12:00:00] MICHAEL WALDMAN, FMR. DIRECTOR OF SPEECHWRITING UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA: In one speech.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Michael Waldman, I'm embarrassed the president doesn't have a time limit tonight, but we do. Thanks so much for being with us. Really appreciate it.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Michael, we really appreciate it.

And don't forget, you can catch the president's final State of the Union Address tonight. Coverage starts on CNN at 7:00.

Thank you so much, everyone, for joining us "AT THIS HOUR."

BERMAN: LEGAL VIEW with Ashleigh Banfield starts now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield. And welcome to LEGAL VIEW.

It may have once been considered a sure thing, but that's one time ago, because the race to the Democratic presidential nomination is now anything but a sure thing. In New Hampshire, there is brand-new evidence that Hillary Clinton is in trouble. In big trouble in the granite state. A new poll released just last hour from Monmouth University shows that Bernie Sanders has a commanding lead over Mrs. Clinton, 53 percent to 39 percent. Hillary Clinton is campaigning in Iowa and just spoke to a crowd at Iowa State University, pointing out that she'll fight the gun lobby harder than Bernie Sanders.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We do have differences. And I think it's time and very important for people to understand what those differences are. We have a big difference over guns. You know that. And I think it's a telling difference, because if you're going to go around saying you stand up to special interests, well, stand up to the most powerful special interest, stand up to that gun lobby, bring people together and let's have common sense gun safety measures.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: And Hillary Clinton dispatched her daughter Chelsea Clinton to New Hampshire today where she held an event and pushed the mother/grandmotherly side of Hillary Clinton.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHELSEA CLINTON, HILLARY CLINTON'S DAUGHTER: I certainly know that becoming a grandmother has only deepened my mother's resolve to work on issues like those related to early learning and early childhood that have brought us here together today, and also was one of the real reasons she decided to run for president, to help ensure that every child would have the opportunities that we will be blessed to be able to provide our daughter.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Joining me now live from Washington, CNN political director David Chalian.

So we go right to the director, David, to ask the big question, what happened? Good God what happened in Iowa or New Hampshire, rather, where we've seen these numbers really run away for Bernie Sanders? These were not the numbers we saw last month for him.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: But we had seen numbers like this early in 2015 in New Hampshire, Ashleigh. This has always been his strongest state where he was going to make his stiffest challenge to Hillary Clinton inside this Democratic nomination race. He's from neighboring Vermont, which has, you know, been exposed to sort of Bernie Sanders for quite some time. He's spent a considerable amount of time there. And, yes, 53 to 39 percent is a big lead for him. That is commanding, which makes Iowa all that more important for Hillary Clinton.

Now, you see those November numbers there when it was a closer race. That was coming off the heels of what was probably Hillary Clinton's best month in the campaign. She had a very strong first debate performance in Las Vegas in our CNN debate there. She spent hours and hours testifying before the Benghazi committee to pretty good reviews. And Joe Biden did not get in the race, which was a big shot in the arm for Hillary Clinton at the time as well since many of his supporters drifted toward her.

So there - we saw a moment where she was closing in. But again, much of 2015 we had seen Sanders having real staying power in New Hampshire. But like I was saying, this is why now Iowa, which has narrowed and they're neck and neck there, is so much more important because Hillary Clinton does not want to be in a position where she goes zero for two in those first two contests of Iowa and New Hampshire.

BANFIELD: Let's show those numbers. You know, since you mentioned it, let's show those NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll numbers for Iowa because they do show that they're within the margin of error, was well within the margin. I would call that neck and neck, 48/45, even though she's ahead. And I've got to be honest, if there's any psychological to having your number - your name at least on the top, it's got to be here, David, because having Sanders at 53 over your 39 in New Hampshire has got to be painful today. CHALIAN: And you've got to remember what Iowa means to Hillary

Clinton, right? This is where it all started unraveling for her in 2008 - 2007, end of 2007, and then when they voted in 2008 and catapulted Barack Obama, and, you know, had that long battle between President - then Senator Obama and then Senator Clinton. So she is trying to learn the lessons from that past election cycle and apply them in Iowa with a much stronger organization, much more robust field operation. She said it herself as recently as yesterday that she really didn't appreciate what the Iowa caucus process was last time around and her whole team has really tried to focus on that this time because they understand how important it is for her, with that Sanders' strength in New Hampshire, right coming up after Iowa, to make sure that they don't let Iowa slip away.

[12:05:06] BANFIELD: So I'm going to ask you to go a little "Rainman" on me here and go through all the numbers in the past elections, if you can. Just a couple of weeks out from the first caucus and the first primary, how often do things actually reverse or slip or shift or change course?

CHALIAN: So I think, Ashleigh, we have to be careful here as we're going to be seeing a slew of polling coming out in - for the next three weeks leading up to Iowa. This is a snapshot today. That doesn't mean - the race is a dynamic thing. So when looking at these polls, they're not trying to predict what voters are going to do three weeks from now. They're trying to say, this is where the race stands right now. It is a snapshot in time. So I think we'll best judge whether or not the polls are sort of accurate when we see the final polls the day or two before the voting.

BANFIELD: And you would not expect anything less from pollsters than to try to cement in their findings, because they ask questions about being concrete in your answers. And in that respect, the New Hampshire poll that's come out, this Monmouth poll, shows that Sanders' voters are pretty committed to him by a 55 percent agreement rate compared to Clinton's 49. So are they telling the truth when they say, I absolutely know what I'm going to do and I will not change my mind in the next three weeks?

CHALIAN: Well, I'm sure they're telling the truth. Does that mean they all won't change their mind? No, they may get new evidence in the next three weeks that causes them to shift.

But you are right, I think that's an important finding to - to look at. And that's not some huge margin that you were saying, but he does have the advantage of having stickier support. This is part of what we call that enthusiasm gap, right, where he has engendered such enthusiasm, big crowds and I think when you see his supporters, they're more committed to him and less likely to be peeled off than her supporters. And that's an important thing. Now, it doesn't determine elections, but it is a key factor to watch.

BANFIELD: All right, David Chalian, thank you so much. We'll be talking to you a lot in the next couple of days and weeks. Thank you.

CHALIAN: Thank you. BANFIELD: Vice President Joe Biden is weighing in on the race for the White House, especially the battle for the Democratic nomination. He sat down with our own chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, to explain why he believes Hillary Clinton is having trouble sealing the deal with Democrats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm not surprised that it is viewed as neck and neck, but I'm also - will be surprised if the pundits turn out to be right. They hardly ever are in Iowa and New Hampshire. So I'm not -

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, why is she struggling? I mean you - you say - I mean we consider - she was an overwhelming favorite and - but -

BIDEN: Well, I - I think that's part of the reason.

BORGER: He's a Democratic socialist.

BIDEN: Yes, but if you - I mean, you know, if Bernie Sanders never said he was a Democratic socialist, based on what he's saying, people wouldn't be calling him a Democratic socialist. That's how he characterizes himself in sort of European terms, the democratic socialist parties in Europe. But - but -

BORGER: But why is she having trouble?

BIDEN: Well, I think that Bernie is speaking to a yearning that is deep and real. And he has credibility on it. And that is the absolute enormous concentration of wealth in a small group of people with the middle class now being able to be shown being left out. There used to be a basic bargain. If you contributed to the profitability of enterprise, you got to share in the profit. That's been broken. Productivity's up. Wages are stagnant.

BORGER: But Hillary's talking about that as well.

BIDEN: Well, it's - but it's relatively new for Hillary to talk about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: I'm going to talk about that comment in just a moment. But if you want to hear the rest of Gloria's full interview with Vice President Biden, I recommend it, it's a great one, and it's going to air with Wolf Blitzer at 1:00. So make sure you stay tuned for that.

Meantime, Donald Trump not missing a chance to rip into Hillary Clinton, noting that new polls are showing her trailing Bernie Sanders. He's been quick, actually, to needle Clinton on her stalling momentum. So this is Donald Trump on "The Tonight Show" last night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I think she's having a tough time. She's got some guy who - I mean he should be easy to beat. I mean how can you lose like this? He really isn't even a Democrat. Well, he - he said - he said he's a socialist, and I think he may be a step beyond a socialist. And she's not doing well. She's about tied in Iowa. She's losing New Hampshire, which is sort of amazing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: I like that last comment the, "she's about tied in Iowa," because you know what, there's a brand-new poll that's just come out and I'm going to read it to you. It's a Quinnipiac poll and it actually does say, ready, Sanders is leading over Hillary Clinton by a margin here, 49 to 44. I don't know what the margin of error is there, but it's probably right within that.

But again, the psychology of this, look at that, this is Iowa. It's not the New Hampshire one I was showing you just minutes ago. This is brand-new, folks. Sanders, 49, Clinton, 44. Again, within the margin and there's that name again.

[12:10:08] I want to talk about this. With me, CNN political commentator and former Republican congressional aide Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman, who is a Hillary Clinton supporter.

OK, you two. So we have some brand new poll numbers to chew on. I thought I was going to ask you about this really remarkable, you know, new information in New Hampshire, but now I'm going to ask you about Iowa, because that's kind of remarkable and new too.

Since you're the Dem, fire away.

ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: OK.

BANFIELD: OK.

ZIMMERMAN: Ashleigh, we talked about this before. We're going to see, as David pointed out, a slew of polls. They're going to have rises based upon artificial happenings on the field. They're going to fall suddenly. They're a political Viagra. And so the pundits are going to be consumed by them. But then you get to the reality of this process and it's about how well you organize on the ground because, you know, a lot of people who are behind in the polls trend up.

Let's also remember, Iowa and New Hampshire are not really about delegates, they're about who gets the best spin. Bill Clinton lost Iowa to Paul Tsongas. No one remembers that he was the comeback kid. Lyndon Johnson beat Eugene McCarthy in New - forgive me, he lost to Tsongas in New Hampshire, but he became the comeback kid. Eugene McCarthy lost to Lyndon Johnson in New Hampshire, but he made history because it was so close.

BANFIELD: And -

ZIMMERMAN: So that's what these first two contests are about is spin. We won't know till the results are in.

BANFIELD: I don't - I don't often quote Donald Trump, suggesting that he actually might be right here, but, you know, this is the guy that was supposed to be easy to beat, Tara, and he - he actually said, how can you lose? And here the numbers show that it's going to be a really tight race and that she might. But isn't the issue for her, not necessarily winning those two, that gives you the momentum to keep your money coming in. She's got lots of money, doesn't she?

TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, she does. And I - you know, I give Robert credit. It's a valiant effort to tamp down the expectations because really -

BANFIELD: It's OK, you can look at each other.

SETMAYER: Yes, no, really.

BANFIELD: When you talk.

SETMAYER: No, listen, the Clinton campaign cannot be happy about this. This is - she has constantly been on defense, if you think about it. Since last year, when the scandal came out about her e-mails, this has been constant - a constant nipping at her throughout the campaign, and then the re-dos. How many times has she reinvented herself or tried to. And it's been an inconsistent campaign for her in that they can't seem to get a message that is taking hold, which is why you see Bernie Sanders, who's been very consistent, and Joe Biden was very slick in kind of a shot there at Clinton about her authenticity problems, the fact that she really has no credibility -

ZIMMERMAN: Let's just do a reality check here, Tara.

SETMAYER: Wait a minute, she has no credibility on the income inequality issue, where Bernie Sanders does. Bernie Sanders has not personally enriched himself using his office, where the Clintons have.

ZIMMERMAN: I've never seen - I've never seen her enthusiasm this way for a Democratic socialist.

SETMAYER: Because I - I'm not in the - I'm -

ZIMMERMAN: Let's remember, when we look at New Hampshire, every candidate from a -

SETMAYER: Speaking the truth.

ZIMMERMAN: From a border state has won that state in a Democrat primary with only one exception. If you're from a border state, you have the advantage. That doesn't mean Hillary Clinton can't win it because she's proven in the past she can.

SETMAYER: But you're acting like Hillary Clinton is just some regular candidate.

BANFIELD: I have to leave it there, guys.

SETMAYER: She was the heir apparent here.

ZIMMERMAN: OK.

SETMAYER: This is not good for her campaign at all.

ZIMMERMAN: We're taking (INAUDIBLE) for granted and -

SETMAYER: She's losing to - she's losing with women to Bernie Sanders, for goodness sakes.

BANFIELD: I need the - I need the camera in the flats for when this segment is over because these two will not end until midnight and then they'll go home and then they'll start again.

ZIMMERMAN: We're going out to lunch and argue it.

BANFIELD: That is a table I want to lean into. Robert Zimmerman, Tara Setmayer, thank you both. I appreciate it.

ZIMMERMAN: Good to be with you.

SETMAYER: You're welcome.

BANFIELD: You too.

Coming up next, seven years after he moved into the White House promising hope and change, there's still plenty of things left that he hopes to change in the coming year. And we're going to hear all about that tonight. The president, his final State of the Union speech. We've got a preview of what to expect, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:17:40] BANFIELD: You might say this is a year of lasts for President Obama, and tonight is a biggie. The clock on your screen is counting down the seconds to Mr. Obama's final State of the Union address. Typically a wish list that Congress typically ignores. And tonight it's a sort of valedictory/victory lap. The president, himself, set the tone this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It is sometimes important for us to step back and take measure of how far we've come. The economy right now is doing better than any other economy in the world by a significant margin. We remain the strongest nation on earth by far. And there are no existential threats facing us. But if we make some good choices now, whoever the next president is, whoever's controlling the next Congress, there's no reason why we shouldn't own the 21st century.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: Our chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins me live now from D.C. This is a big night. Everyone's getting ready to be there. And there's a brand new face that's going to be over the shoulder of the president tonight and people might be surprised but it's Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House. He's actually doing some preparing of his own. So walk me through it.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, there is the sort of performance preparation and then there is the policy and message preparation. I was at a breakfast that he held for television news reporters and anchors who are going to be covering this tonight, and he was joking that his wife, Jana, warned him that he is going to be in the picture a lot because he is now the speaker of the House, which means, by tradition, he will be sitting behind the president. So he says he's practicing his poker face. He says he's an Irish guy who likes to express himself with his face, and he just can't do that tonight.

But he talked a lot, Ashleigh, about the expectation. As you can imagine, this is the Republican speaker of the House. And he said sort of the headline was, he anticipates that the president will give a glossy view of the past seven years. Probably not unlike the way he perceives what Barack Obama told Matt Lauer, and that he's - he thinks he's going to continue to set up what Ryan called strawmen to make Republicans from his perspective look like angry reactionaries and set the stage for his predecessor, he hopes will be his predecessor, Hillary Clinton, because we talk a lot about legacy. That's sort of where we are in the Obama presidency, especially a night like tonight, his last State of the Union. You know, for somebody to keep a legacy going, you have to have somebody take over in the White House who's like them, and that's I think a lot of what we're going to hear tonight.

[12:20:16] BANFIELD: Well, you have a late night and I know you have a lot of work to do today, so I'll let you go.

BASH: Yes.

BANFIELD: Dana Bash, thank you for that. Appreciate it.

BASH: Thank you.

BANFIELD: Coming up, our next guest, no stranger to the State of the Union speeches. Edith Childs was there for President Obama's first address. And she is going to be there for this last one as well. She got the special invitation just last week. Take a close look. This was her. She played a pivotal role in the president's campaigns in both '08 and '12. It was her chant that became a rallying cry at his events. Let's turn it up and listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDITH CHILDS: Fired up!

CROWD: Ready to go!

CHILDS: Fired up! CROWD: Ready to go!

CHILDS: Ready to go!

CROWD: Ready to go!

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's this little lady standing there. She got a big hat. And she's smiling at me. She says, "fired up! Ready to go!"

Are you still ready to go!

CHILDS: Ready to go!

OBAMA: Do you think these folks are fired up and ready to go?

CHILDS: Yes, I do.

OBAMA: All right. So we just want to know one thing. Are you fired up?

Are you ready to go?

Edith, hit it.

CHILDS: Fired up!

OBAMA: Fired up!

CHILDS: We're ready to go!

OBAMA: Ready to go!

CHILDS: Fired up!

OBAMA: Fired up!

CHILDS: We're ready to go!

OBAMA: Ready to go!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: I can only just image that this is now an Internet remix. And Edith Childs joins me live now.

You are fantastic. I love watching those videos and I particularly love watching the transition year to year. It's hard to believe you met him nine years ago. But you got the call a week ago you were coming to join the president and the first lady at the State of the Union. What was your reaction?

EDITH CHILDS, INVITED SPECIAL GUEST OF OBAMA TO STATE OF THE UNION: Well, my first reaction, I was - I was just shocked. But yet, I was overjoyed to get the invitation.

BANFIELD: I can imagine. But, you know, there's so much that you can read into the guest list when you sit with the first lady. And you're going to be actually seated beside a lot of very significant people as well. There's the CEO of Microsoft. There's a U.S. service member who stopped a terrorist attack, along with an empty chair that's going to represent all the victims of gun violence. So you're in pretty important company. And a lot of people say, this is the narrative of the president's entire administration in all the years he has spent. How do you think you fit into that, Edith?

CHILDS: Well, I am just an ordinary person who has done an extraordinary thing. And when I think about it, that's what the Lord wants you to be, to be an ordinary person. And when you're an ordinary person, everything that you can imagine will happen. And that's what has happened to me just being that person.

BANFIELD: Well, we are going to be watching for you. And as I understand it, you're planning to wear the big hat. So I hope it clears through security. We'll be watching. Enjoy yourself tonight. And - and thanks for coming on with us.

CHILDS: OK. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me.

BANFIELD: Edith Childs live in Washington, D.C., getting ready for the big night tonight.

The president is not the only one who can bring guests to the State of the Union speech. The lawyer for Kim Davis says that he and Kim Davis are going to be in the House gallery. The invitation coming from a congressional member whom the lawyer is declining to identify. You may recall Davis is the county clerk who went to jail rather than issue same-sex marriage licenses in Kentucky. Her lawyer says she represents, and I will quote the lawyer, "the many Americans who have had their religious liberty trampled on by this administration," end quote. To which I must point out, it was the Supreme Court that recognized same-sex marriage as a constitutional right. It was not the administration. It was not Congress. It was the high body.

I don't want you to miss the presidential address. Obama's final State of the Union Address. Coverage beginning tonight, 7:00 Eastern, right here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:28:34] BANFIELD: The bomber was from Syria. Most of the victims were from Germany. But the target, apparently was Turkey. At least 10 people have died, all of this because of a suicide bomber who died himself. And a suicide bomber who struck at the cultural heart of the multicultural, multinational metropolis of Istanbul. The Turkish government now says ISIS is to blame and that retribution will not be far behind.

CNN's Arwa Damon is live at the scene where it's just after 7:00 p.m.

Arwa, bring me up to speed on the latest.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Ashleigh, that blast happening just a few hundred feet behind us. We're just outside of the police cordon.

This is what we know at this stage. Turkish officials are saying, as you mentioned there, that this was a person of Syrian origins who had only just recently crossed over from Syria into Turkey, not an individual who was necessarily one of the many, and I mean many, that Turkish intelligence is tracking. It just goes to show you how difficult it is to try to keep tabs on all of those who are continuously flowing across the Syria/Turkey border, despite Turkish authorities' best efforts.

[12:29:54] Now, what we do know is that of the 10 who died, all of them are foreign nationals with an official source telling us that nine of them were German, Ashleigh. And Turkish authorities do now say that this suicide bomber was a member of ISIS. And it most certainly is not the first time that