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Iran Releases 10 U.S. Sailors; President Obama Delivers State of the Union Address; Polls Show Tightening Race for Democrats; Clinton: Feel About Good Organization in Iowa. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired January 13, 2016 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

[09:00:00] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Iran demanding an apology days before the nuclear deal is due to take effect.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But I don't think the timing of this intercept of our two naval vessels in the Persian Gulf is coincidental.

COSTELLO: Also.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The president of the United States.

COSTELLO: One last time.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The state of our union is strong.

COSTELLO: President Obama tries to calm Americans' fears and takes a dig at GOP candidates who want his job.

Plus, palpable pandemonium.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'll be happy. I ain't got to work again no more.

COSTELLO: With $1.5 billion on the line, lines of daydreamers are out the door.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: First thing I'm going to do is retire and then I'm going to look to move someplace warm.

COSTELLO: But don't quit your day jobs just yet.

Let's talk, live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: And good morning, I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

Ten American Navy sailors are free after nearly a full day in Iranian detention. These photos released just hours ago showing the nine men and one woman resting. They look healthy. Maybe a little bored. The ordeal started when the Americans and their two vessels were seized after apparently drifting into Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf.

CNN's Barbara Starr is at her post. She has more from the Pentagon.

Good morning.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. I think Washington woke up to a big sigh of relief this morning with those 10 sailors now being released.

It happened several hours ago, they came back into international waters, in the Persian Gulf on board their two small U.S. Navy vessels, small boats that have drifted into Iranian waters. They came back under their own power. So now one of the big questions is, was one of those Navy boats actually disabled? Did they have a mechanical problem? Did they have a navigation problem? How is it that they drifted into Iranian waters?

All of that now we are told under investigation. But they came back into those U.S. water, a U.S. Navy warship was waiting for them. They were -- went on board that warship, and they're now gradually being transferred back to shore.

Full repatriation process under way. That means medical checks, psychological checks and debriefing by Navy officials and intelligence officials about what happened to them when they were inside Iran, what the Iranians said and did. But right now the big question is, of course how all of this happened and there is no answer to that yet. Somebody knows but that answer not being made public obviously until they fully debrief the sailors.

And of course the big stakes here not just the fate of these sailor, though. That is all important but the Iran nuclear agreements scheduled to go into effect in the next several days. The thinking in Washington is that the Iranians did not want to do anything to stop that agreement from going into effect from getting access to their funds that have been under sanctions so they too wanted to get this resolved very quickly -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Barbara Starr reporting live from the Pentagon, thank you.

Next hour we'll hear from Secretary of State John Kerry who is being credited with swift diplomacy in resolving this incident. He's due to speak at 10:45 Eastern. Of course we'll carry his comments live.

But now that these sailors are back in U.S. custody what happens next? And how does this impact diplomatic relations with Iran? After all Iran still wants the United States to apologize for this incident.

Let's ask CNN military analyst Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. I'm also joined by former U.N. and State Department official, David Tafuri. He's also a former Obama adviser.

Welcome to both of you.

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning, Carol. DAVID TAFURI, FORMER OBAMA CAMPAIGN FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER: Thank

you.

COSTELLO: Good morning. So before we get into the weeds, General, should America apologize to Iran for this?

HERTLING: Well, we're talking about a ship that somehow wandered into territorial waters, Carol, and I think it would be appropriate in this case. You have to -- sometimes when you make mistakes in the military. You have to say, boy, we botch this, sorry about that. This is not a big deal. This is not bowing to another nation. It's just maintaining territorial integrity and ensuring that they know the laws of conflict or adhered to.

COSTELLO: Oh, but, General, you know what many Americans are going to say, are you kidding?

HERTLING: Of course.

COSTELLO: General, come on.

HERTLING: Yes, I know. I'm going to get a lot of heat for that statement but that's what you do. And truthfully, Carol, you know, everyone knows that the U.S. military is very good at what they do, as the president said last night. Maybe a little bit too much hubris. We're the best in the world. I'm not sure or the best it's ever been. But you know what, these are young people and they make mistakes. They may have had a mechanical error or a GPS malfunction or just bad map reading but something wrong happened. And so I think it's appropriate to say hey, we didn't adhere to your territorial waters and we apologize for that.

COSTELLO: OK. David, I think another concern for Americans is Iran's shifting messages yesterday. The reasoning that it had for holding these -- for holding these Americans.

[09:05:04] First, the Iranian said the sailors trespassed. Then it said it was a rescue -- operation. As I said, they demanded an apology. Ultimately deeming the situation unintentional. What do you make of the shifting message from the Iranians on what exactly happened in the Persian Gulf?

TAFURI: Well, this could have been a real disaster for President Obama. On the day he's giving his last State of the Union speech, he's going to talk about the Iran agreement, U.S. sailors get taken hostage by Iran. But it seems to have worked out.

The Iran messaging is sort of perplexing but I think this all happened in a very short period and Iran of course is also struggling to figure out what happened, why these sailors and this ship were in Iran's territorial waters. And likely there was some dissension within Iran about how to deal with this. The hard liners of course want to use this to show that they can get back at the U.S. whereas the moderates who really want the agreement to go forward and desperately want the sanctions relief that's going to come very soon probably insisted on taking a much softer line on dealing with the U.S. and giving these sailors back as quickly as possible which is exactly what happened.

That's what President Obama tried to explain last night with his policy for dealing with rogue nations, to bring an international community, to reach an agreement, to galvanize support for that agreement and then to work out problems like this through diplomacy. So far it looks like that's how this has worked out and it's a positive for the president.

COSTELLO: OK. So the other interesting thing here and maybe it has something to do with the Iran deal. I don't know, General. But the Iranians not only returned the sailors but they returned their boats. What should we make of that?

HERTLING: Well, I think a couple of things, Carol. First of all, you know, they teach all of us at the war colleges, relationships matter. When you have an engagement over a year like the secretary did with Mr. Jafir. This is something that you can't replace that. The phone call between Secretary Kerry and Secretary Carter and the Iranian prime minister was important but I think they returned the boat because truthfully it's a boat. It's a small RCB. They have some machine guns on them. It carries a crew of five. And it can load other passengers on it. And it has encrypted radios but that is about it.

It doesn't have any spying devices. It doesn't have anything that would intimidate Iran. You know, compared to like the USS Pueblo in the North Korea where it literally was a spy ship and the North Koreans kept it, this was just really a 38-foot boat that they said hey, let's put these sailors back on board and get them back out to fleet. And I think it's because of what's been happening over the last year plus between the countries' relationships.

COSTELLO: OK. So, David, one last time because Republicans, many Republicans are very concerned about this Iranian nuclear deal. And so are many Americans, frankly. So what should we take away from this incident as it applies to this Iranian nuclear deal if anything?

TAFURI: Well, I also have concerns about the Iranian nuclear deal. And the biggest problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is we have to see, is this going to change Iran's behavior and we really don't know. And there's been indication that maybe it's not, with Iran, you know, testing new missiles systems, with Iran doing other provocations. Very close to the U.S. military.

But this shows perhaps a change in behavior, and probably as a result of the agreement. So in this -- what the general said which is the relationships are very important, the relationship between Secretary Kerry and the foreign minister of Iran, and how that has developed through the agreement. We also see the agreement and the inducements to Iran, including the sanctions relief probably causing Iran to take a softer line and release these sailors very quickly.

Much more quickly than it's released hostages in the past. You remember the Iran hostage crisis, different circumstances but we -- they held our embassy personnel more than 400 days. Iran previously captured some British sailors, held them for almost two weeks. This was resolved in one day which is a success.

COSTELLO: All right. David Tafuri, General Mark Hertling, thanks for your insight.

President Obama did not mention the incident with Iran during his final State of the Union. Instead he focused on selling optimism to a nervous nation and called on the American people to reject partisan rhetoric and help build a better country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: If we want a better politics it's not enough just do change a congressman or change a senator or even change a president. We have to change the system to reflect our better selves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: In addition to taking veiled punches at some of the 2016 candidates, President Obama also touched on hot-button issues like foreign policy, prison reform and climate change .

CNN White House correspondent Michelle Kosinski has more for you.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The president of the United States.

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Entering the Capitol for his final State of the Union address, President Obama was met with such energy it took a good five minutes to get started.

[09:10:02] OBAMA: Let's bring this to order. For this final one, I'm going to try to make it a little shorter.

(CHEERS)

OBAMA: I know some of you are anxious to get back to Iowa.

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: I've been there.

KOSINSKI: He acknowledged the difficulties he's faced.

OBAMA: We won't agree on health care anytime soon. But --

(APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: The applause right there.

KOSINSKI: But wasted no time in repeatedly, sharply digging Republican candidates for their criticism.

OBAMA: Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction. Well, so is all the rhetoric you hear about our enemies getting stronger and America getting weaker. And our answer needs to be more than tough talk or calls to carpet bomb civilians. That may work as a TV sound bite, but it doesn't pass muster on the world stage. And we need to reject any politics, any politics, that targets people because of race or religion.

KOSINSKI: A sentiment that interestingly was echoed in the Republican rebuttal by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

GOV. NIKKI HALEY (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation.

KOSINSKI: Donald Trump tweeted that the president's speech was, "boring, slow, lethargic." Senator Ted Cruz didn't attend it but said this.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will apologize to nobody for my commitment to kill the terrorists.

KOSINSKI: One of President Obama's goals here was optimism, which lately, the White House uses to try to build a contrast with how they see the Republican field.

OBAMA: Sixty years ago, when the Russians beat us into space, we didn't deny Sputnik was up there. We didn't argue about the science or shrink our research and development budget. We built a space program almost overnight and 12 years later, we were walking on the moon.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: That spirit of discovery is in our DNA. Let's make America the country that cures cancer once and for all.

KOSINSKI: That statement brought both sides of the aisle to its feet. In a room filled with guests as diverse as a Syrian refugee, nuns suing the administration over Obamacare, American Muslims, and Kim Davis, the president conceding that the politics remains a barrier.

OBAMA: It's one of the few regrets of my presidency, that the rancor and the suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better.

KOSINSKI: Calling on individual Americans to set aside cynicism and vote.

OBAMA: Because I believe in you, the American people. And that's why I stand here as confident as I have ever been that the state of our union is strong. Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: All right. Michelle Kosinski, you're on. She joins us now from the -- from the White House.

So tell us more about the color of last night's event because there were many interesting moments.

KOSINSKI: Yes, there were. And also, you know, seeing Kim Davis there, that was kind of interesting. She was in Congressman Jim Jordan's box. But he put out a statement making it seem like she was the one who had reached out and asked for an invitation and she told reporters she wanted to make a statement. Remember she's the Texas court clerk who had refused to give out same-sex marriage licenses and was jailed as a result briefly on the basis of her Christian faith. So, obviously, you know, she wanted to make a big statement there and the camera did focused on her a few times.

And also what was interesting is about 30 minutes into the speech the new House Speaker Paul Ryan had his office put out a statement saying, OK, here we are listening to this. And he was critical, calling what President Obama was saying sound bites. Saying that it wasn't a real path forward. That it really didn't pose a solution to ISIS or the economy. And that we can do better.

Also, you know, the White House for days was saying that in this speech you are going to hear a lot of passion from the president. Some were using the word nontraditional. I don't know that this is really anything we haven't heard before. He definitely focused on optimism and moving forward but, you know, when you go back and look at his prior speeches, especially his first one, you can definitely see the difference there.

And he makes reference to it a lot. All the gray hairs that he's gained in his nearly eight years now as president of the United States, Carol.

COSTELLO: Yes. I think we just saw the contrast there. It's amazing, the --

KOSINSKI: I don't know -- I wouldn't want anyone do that to me. I think I don't want to see a split screen of myself almost a decade earlier. So just keep that in mind, Carol.

COSTELLO: Amen, sister. Michelle Kosinski reporting live from the White House this morning.

KOSINSKI: See you later.

COSTELLO: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, as the Democratic race tightens, Hillary Clinton making this pledge to Iowa voters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[09:15:00] HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm asking Iowans, if they'll stand up for me on caucus night, I will be standing up for them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Hear more on Clinton's thoughts on Iowa and those ever changing polls, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Just weeks to go until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses, and it looks like Democrats are in for a major fight, among themselves. A new poll from Quinnipiac University showing a stunning reversal. Bernie Sanders now leading Hillary Clinton and the sentiment in Iowa seeming to echo across the nation. A CBS/"New York Times" poll shows Sanders closing the gap with Clinton, now down by just seven points. That's compared to a 20-point gap just last month.

So, what does Hillary Clinton make of it numbers? She talked with my colleague Alisyn Camerota about that and more.

Alisyn joins me now.

Good morning.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning.

And also she used her sort of usual line of "polls go up, polls go down".

COSTELLO: I'm not even paying attention.

CAMEROTA: I'm not paying attention to that. And then, she explained her plan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: Secretary Clinton, thanks so much for sitting down with us here in Iowa.

CLINTON: Thank you, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: We are in Ames, Iowa --

CLINTON: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- where the temperature as we speak is one degree.

CLINTON: Uh-hmm.

CAMEROTA: And I know that you have been going to countless campaign events here. And I'm wondering when you get up in the morning in Iowa if there are ever times you question your life choices?

(LAUGHTER)

CLINTON: Actually, no. You know, I grew up in Chicago. I'm used to cold weather. It doesn't bother me. In fact, I'm somewhat reassured that there is a real winter, that we are actually seeing snow and lower temperatures.

But I get up every day, whether I'm in Iowa, in New Hampshire, wherever I am in the country, and I really look forward to the day because I find the opportunity to go out and listen to people, hear their stories, give them my views about what I think the next president should do.

[09:20:15] Very energizing and very, you know, reinvigorating all the time.

CAMEROTA: So, let's talk about the tightening race between you and Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders is speaking to reporters on Monday night here in Iowa. And he said that your campaign is in, quote, "serious trouble". Is that how you feel?

CLINTON: Not at all. In fact, I have always known that if you are going to run to be president, particularly in the Democratic Party, it's a long, hard, challenging road. And so, I've been in these elections before. They always tighten up as people begin to make up their minds, as they look at the candidates, totally predictable. I feel really, really good about the campaign organization that I have. A caucus is different from a primary. It takes a lot of intensive work to convince people to come out on a cold Monday night, spend a couple of hours in order to stand up for your candidate.

But I'm asking Iowans if they'll stand up for me on caucus night, I will be standing up for them all through my presidency.

CAMEROTA: There is a new Quinnipiac poll in which Bernie Sanders is now beating you in Iowa. It is 49 percent to 44 percent. It's the first time that this has happened that he's been beating you in Iowa since September. We are 20 days out.

Does he have more momentum than you?

CLINTON: Well, the funny thing, Alisyn, is, after that poll came out, about an hour later there was a PPP poll where I was leading him by the same margin about six points up.

I don't pay any attention to this. I don't feel that it's a good reflection about who will actually come out on caucus night. I can only tell you that the energy, the enthusiasm, the excitement of my volunteers, my organizers, the voters who come, who sign up on commit to caucus cards is just building. That's my experience.

So, I'll let people poll and try to figure out who is going to show up. I'm looking at people who are showing up, making up their minds and trying to, you know, convince them to come out and caucus for me.

CAMEROTA: Why don't you feel that the polls are good reflection of what's going to happen in the caucus?

CLINTON: Because they are so unpredictable. And it's gotten increasingly difficult to poll. And I think you would have to add a degree of difficulty to polling for a caucus.

So, that's been my experience. I've watched this a long time. I've had a prior election where I campaigned in Iowa.

So, I just put that aside. I'll let pundits and others worry about who's up and who's down. I just get up every day like we were saying, going out there, making my case, drawing the contrast because I have the highest regard for my two opponents, but there are real differences.

And we need a spirited debate, because after the first of the year, a lot more people start paying attention. And now I know it's, you know, the make or break time. People make up their minds.

CAMEROTA: Bernie Sanders is also winning in New Hampshire. Not surprising. He is from a neighboring state. Have you considered what would happen if he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, what your plan is?

CLINTON: I don't think about that. I'm going to do everything I can to win as bigger margin as possible in the caucus and then go to the primary.

But this is a national campaign. We've been organizing in South Carolina, in Nevada, a lot of the March 1st states, the March 15th states.

Remember, I campaigned all the way into June last time. And I have always thought that given the unpredictability and the, you know, changes in people's concerns going into this election, that we wouldn't know exactly how the outcome would be for, you know, a couple of cycles of these primaries and caucuses. So, I'm going to do my best to convince more Iowans to come out and caucus for me.

And even though as you say, Senator Sanders as a neighbor and a neighbor never lost in New Hampshire, I'm going to take that challenge on and do the best I can to get people in New Hampshire to support me, as well.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: One of the things I really notice about that interview is Hillary Clinton seems much more energized in your interview than she has in interviews in the past.

CAMEROTA: You know, Carol, as you know people are different. Politicians are different in real life than they sometimes seem on television and that's why the Iowa voters know and the New Hampshire voters, that's why they go see them in real life. And I thought that way too.

She came out. She did seem energetic. She just had a morning campaign event. She seemed comfortable. She seemed confident.

Now, behind the scenes, her campaign may be nervous at the poll numbers and they certainly didn't seem as comfortable as she was yesterday, but nationally, she's still doing well.

So, maybe she has reason but that was my read on her yesterday.

[09:25:01] COSTELLO: It is interesting, you know, because a lot of people are confused about the polls this time around, right? Nobody knows which poll to believe.

So, does she have a point? Or is she just like, you know, painting a rosy picture? CAMEROTA: They do fluctuate. That's true. She's right about that. The polls fluctuate.

However, the momentum seems to be with Bernie Sanders. Her poll numbers are declining, while his are ascending and that's not a good sign.

COSTELLO: And exactly the right time, right?

CAMEROTA: Yes, it's true.

COSTELLO: The caucuses are just around the corner right now.

CAMEROTA: Right.

COSTELLO: Alisyn Camerota, thanks for stopping by.

CAMEROTA: Thanks so much.

COSTELLO: All right. With me now to talk more about this, Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and editorial director of "The National Journal", and Donna Brazile, CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist.

Welcome to both of you.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Good morning.

So, Ron, why is Bernie Sanders resonating and Clinton kind of fading?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it's good question. I mean, I think, look, there are reasons for concern for the Clinton campaign, but not yet panic.

The reasons for concern is that Bernie Sanders is clearly expanding his base. When he started, he was very much what I could call a wine track candidate, almost entirely dependent on support from white upper middle class liberals. If you look at this new polling from Quinnipiac in Iowa, also from Marist/NBC/"Wall Street Journal" in New Hampshire, he is now competitive and even ahead in some of the polls among blue collar whites as well.

In addition, Hillary Clinton is facing a significant gender gap in the wrong direction in the Democratic Party. She's looking at big deficits among men in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Those are both reasons for concern, Carol. The reason it isn't at the point of panic is because Bernie Sanders has not yet shown he can crack Bernie Sanders' domination among minorities, African Americans and Hispanics, who probably be about 40 percent of all the voters in the Democratic primaries.

Iowa and New Hampshire are virtually all white states but if Bernie Sanders does as well as he's doing there in the biggest diverse states later, she'll lose them. So, until he shows that he can break into that minority stronghold for Hillary Clinton, I think she still has the upper hand clearly in this race, even though it could get very bumpy if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire.

COSTELLO: Well, Donna, it is clear the Clinton camp is a little worried because it's on the attack against Bernie Sanders. Take a look at the latest Clinton ad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, HILLARY FOR AMERICA)

CLINTON: An average of 90 people are killed by guns in this country every single day. It has to stop. President Obama wants to make universal background checks the law of the land and he wants to make sure gun manufacturers can finally be held accountable when their guns are used to kill our children.

It's time to pick a side. Either we stand with the gun lobby or we join the president and stand up to them. I'm with him. Please join us.

I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Donna, not only is Clinton attacking Sanders on guns, but she says Sanders wants to dismantle Medicare, Obamacare, Medicaid, and the CHIP program. All not exactly true, but will that sort of thing work?

BRAZILE: Look, I think you have to have a really strong closing argument in order to motivate people who might not be so incline to go to the caucuses to come out and vote for you. I do believe although she came into a close third place finish in 2008, she has a tremendous organization, she has lots of volunteers and she has resources. So, that will help her in the end.

Look, if you have a strategy to win these caucuses to come in first place I they think that strategy should continue to hold although those polls go back and forth. As to the policy differences, there are some major ones and there are some minor ones. I think we'll hear this weekend in the debate in South Carolina just -- if Bernie Sanders has moved on the gun lobby -- on the gun liability issue and we'll find out if Hillary Clinton has a better answer for Wall Street.

So, these are issues that animate Democrats, progressives and others, and I think we're having a very competitive debate within the Democratic Party. And it's good thing for the country as well.

COSTELLO: Yes. OK, so going back to South Carolina and the minority vote you were talking about, Ron, Sanders seems to be setting his sight on South Carolina and those important minority voters. He's launched a Feel the Bern campaign to woo minority voters within South Carolina. So, he's on to what you said, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Oh, right. Well, there is no avoiding it. Iowa and New Hampshire are anomalous in the Democratic context because they are basically states where over 90 percent of the voters will be white. And as a result, they have also often been very receptive to these kind of outsider and surging candidates.

But to ultimately win the nomination, very quickly, you move to South Carolina with a large African-American population. Nevada with a large Hispanic population, and then as you move into the big states New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, there is no way to win the Democratic nomination without appealing significantly to minorities.

And so far in the polling in most places, Hillary Clinton has been up six, even seven to one, for example, among African-Americans in South Carolina. So, until Bernie Sanders shows he can make the cultural connection that goes beyond his class-based economic argument, which is really is more comfortable, I think it is still an uphill climb for him. But again, if he does win both of these first contests, there will be a lot of disruption in this race.

COSTELLO: Donna, is it possible that Bernie Sanders could take the minority vote away from Hillary Clinton?