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GOP Debate; Immigration Battle; Iowa Caucus; Debate Ratings. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired January 29, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:00] WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Very much. I'll be back 5:00 p.m. Eastern in "The Situation Room." In the meantime, the news continues next on CNN.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go. Top of the hour. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin, live here from Des Moines, Iowa. Just over my shoulder, the absolutely gorgeous capital here in Des Moines. Beautiful blue skies. A tad blustery, but it's getting hot, hot, hot here in this state. The state officially launching the election season to decide the next president of the United States.

Iowa's first in the nation caucuses happen in just 72 hours from now. And Iowans are feeling the full court candidate press. Look at all these boxes. They are out and about both on the Republican and Democratic side. They are scouring this state hoping to earn caucus goers' support.

And, once again, Donald Trump is proving to be the singular no show in Iowa. Of the main contenders, he is the only one not here. Trump, instead, is in New Hampshire boasting about how his move to skip the Republican debate in Des Moines was, quote/unquote "the right thing" and that this competing event raised $6 million for veterans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Number one, we have February 1st. I think we're going to do really well in Iowa. I think we're really going to surprise. We're leading in the Iowa polls now, but - and leading pretty good. And Cruz, who's in second place, he got really pumped last night. Actually, I'm glad I wasn't there because I guess all of that - he got pummeled. Wow. And - and, you know, they didn't even mention that he was born in Canada.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Trump is, though, due back in Iowa tomorrow.

Let me turn to our executive editor of CNN politics, Mark Preston, who is joining me now.

And to that pummeling note that he just mentioned there, my friend, is it really fair - granted a lot of people would agree that it was not a great night for Ted Cruz, but is it fair for the guy who didn't even show up at the debate to say, ah, the guy got pummeled? What do you think of that? MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, first of all, who uses that type of language in a presidential race, you know, one candidate to another?

BALDWIN: I mean we could have said that five - five months ago.

PRESTON: We could have said it six months ago. You know, who says, they didn't even say he was a Canadian - you know, he's a Canadian citizen. I mean, look, this is a campaign that we have never seen in our lifetime. Donald Trump is doing things that we would never ever think that any candidate could possibly do.

But he is kind of right, Ted Cruz had a terrible night last night and it wasn't because of Donald Trump, it was because of the other candidates on stage who decided to turn their fire on Trump. And, in fact, two of them - two of them, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, who served with him in the Senate, had this to say about him. Let's hear what they had to say about him.

BANFIELD: OK.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. RAND PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What is particularly insulting, though, is that he is the king of saying, oh, you're for amnesty. Everybody's for amnesty except for Ted Cruz. But it's a falseness. And that's an authenticity problem. That everybody he knows is not as perfect as him because we're all for amnesty.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is the lie that Ted's campaign is built on, and Rand touched upon it, that he's the most conservative guy and everyone else is a - you know, everyone else is a rhino. The truth is, Ted, throughout this campaign you've been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes. Ted, you worked for George W. Bush's campaign. And then in the committee you said, I want to bring people out of the shadows. Now you want to trump Trump on immigration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESTON: And here we go. The reason why that that is significant is because you have Marco Rubio on one side and you have Rand Paul on the other side. These are two gentlemen that don't like to talk (ph).

BALDWIN: Who you would never - yes, that would come together on something like that.

PRESTON: They don't even like each other. And they're from different sides of the political party and they came together to attack Ted Cruz. That's why it's significant.

BALDWIN: Just quickly on Rubio. I mean a lot of people too were talking about Rubio and we're about to discuss that with our next panel, about how he really shown last night. And we know that this state is all about getting that evangelical vote. And he was try, Marco Rubio, as best as he could, to steal those voters away from Ted Cruz.

PRESTON: He certainly was. And what's interesting is that we haven't highlighted it enough in the media is that Marco Rubio talks often about his faith when he's on the campaign trail. It doesn't necessarily get picked up by us, but he talks about his faith often, and we saw that last night.

BALDWIN: All right, Mark Preston, thank you very much.

PRESTON: Thank you, Brooke.

BALDWIN: And as Rubio and Cruz sort of fumbled over what they do or don't support when it comes to immigration specifically, Chris Christie jumped in, winning some of the biggest cheers of the night actually by saying, you know what, it's OK to change your mind.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I feel like I need a Washington to English dictionary convertor, right? I mean I heard what they both said. I saw it on the video. And the fact is, this is what makes a difference when you're a governor. You can change your mind. Ted could change his mind. Marco could change his mind. It's perfectly legal in this country to change your mind. But when you're a governor, you have to admit it. You can't hide behind parliamentary tricks. That's the difference and that's the kind of leader we need in the White House. Stop the Washington bull and let's get things done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So let's follow through on who supported what when it comes to immigration. With me now, Republican strategist and CNN political commentator Margaret Hoover and David Yepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, and former political editor at "The Des Moines Register." He was at the paper for 34 years.

[14:05:06] And you, my friend, are back from a phenomenal maternity leave. I just wanted to officially say, welcome back.

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

BALDWIN: Welcome back.

So, David, to you first. On immigration and the fact that, you know, the moderators did show some videos highlighting how one person said one thing back in the day and how they've evolved or flip-flopped, whatever word you want to use. Who was closest to telling the truth on immigration?

DAVID YEPSEN, PAUL SIMON INSTITUTE, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIV.: Oh, boy, I couldn't do a truth watch on that. They really - they really do confuse the issue and - because they both have been on - Cruz and Rubio - on different sort of sides of this, shades of this.

BALDWIN: Yes.

YEPSEN: And so they're both trying to drive at each other's negatives. It's a hot issue with Republicans. But it's not - you know, it's not the only driving issue, but it is an important issue.

BALDWIN: What did you think on - on it? It was a huge part of the debate.

HOOVER: Well, in the room played differently than when you watched it on television. And in the room people who watched it say that was Marco's weakest moment of the night. On television, I thought he threaded the needle pretty well. I mean he essentially said, look, we're not going to deport, you know, 11 million people. And we're not going to go around handing out green cards either. But there is -- forgive the term - a centrist way of handling this that is humane and consistent with the principles that made this country great. And that's consistent with his story of the American dream as the son of immigrants.

BALDWIN: I want to stay on Marco Rubio and let me pull my handy-dandy prop, because everybody's been showing the cover of "The Des Moines Register" today and talking about, yes, rough night for Ted Cruz. But this is what I want to focus on. Who else is in the picture? Marco Rubio. Yes, the paper has endorsed him. Yes, he was standing next to him. But, to me, it was a strong night for him. And my question though is, when you think about a Marco Rubio, listen, he's not going to win Iowa. He's not going to win New Hampshire. You think ahead to South Carolina, when a lot of those, you know, primary state Republican voters, early voter - they're not going to - they don't typically show up. And then you have Florida, where he's losing to Trump.

HOOVER: Well, what Rubio has said all along - I mean I think the plan pie in the sky before Trump was three, two, one. Third place in Iowa, second place in New Hampshire, first place in South Carolina. I'm hearing here, now that I'm on the ground, from multiple people in the party that Rubio's on the rise, especially after last night. He did himself well - good last night. And most Iowans - many, many Iowans have not made up their minds yet, Brooke. I mean this is - the caucusers decide, many of them, the last day of the caucuses. And David can speak to that even more actually than I can. So there is still an opening for Marco maybe to do third or maybe, you know, third or maybe even better.

YEPSEN: He's sort of a default candidate for a lot of people. And I hear people say they like so and so, but Rubio's good or he's OK or I want to know more. Don't underestimate the power of what happens at the caucus site itself because -

BALDWIN: Explain that. Explain that.

YEPSEN: Well, this isn't the primary where you go in and cast a vote.

BALDWIN: Yes.

YEPSEN: You meet with your neighbors. You meet publically and you talk politics. And if I think you know something about politics and I don't and you say you like candidate a and I - well, maybe I'll join with you. And that really is that neighbor to neighbor thing is very powerful. And that's where I think Marco Rubio comes in. He's kind of the default candidate who everybody in the party can - can get a - see as something they like, and the Tea Party people, the pro-life people, and the moderates in the party. So that's his - I think that's his great strength is -

BALDWIN: But you've seen - I mean -

YEPSEN: Margaret's right, he is coming up.

BALDWIN: We're in that final crucial three days. And you've seen the numbers how Trump and Cruz are neck and neck. What does, you know, camp Rubio need to do to change that in the final stretch?

YEPSEN: Well, they're -

BALDWIN: What's their moment?

YEPSEN: They're doing it. I mean, remember, polls are a lousy predictor of what happens on caucus night. Lots of margin of error. Lots of softness in the polling. So it could - it could - Rubio's doing what he's got to do, moving around, getting them - getting some buzz going. I think Margaret's right, he did hold his own stylistically on that immigration debate. That's important, how he handled himself. So, yes, he's moving up.

BALDWIN: Final thought from you.

HOOVER: Look, it's a sprint to the finish now and it is still - it's not that it's anybody's game. I mean everybody will tell you here in Iowa, nobody's ever seen anything like this. Even as we talk about the nuances and immigration, it doesn't matter. This is a Donald Trump year. He has changed the table and is running it.

BALDWIN: Thirty-four years at the paper here, have you ever see anything like this?

YEPSEN: Oh, it - Obama campaign on the - on the Democratic side. But, you know, there's a - there's something that happens. Two candidates get into it the way Cruz and Trump have gotten into it on immigration. The third candidate could be the real winner. In that case, this - this could be Rubio.

BALDWIN: David Yepsen and Margaret Hoover, thank you both so much. Thank you.

This weekend, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, they will all join my colleague, Jake Tapper, on "State of the Union." That is Sunday morning, 9:00 Eastern, right here on CNN.

Coming up next, if Iowa is not necessarily a great bellwether for the eventual nominees then, is the nation's first prize, is it overrated? Let's talk about that.

Also ahead, the ratings are in. Trump predicted the debate would be a disaster. Find out exactly how many people tuned in to his event compared to the debate with the rest of the candidates.

Also ahead, Hillary Clinton releasing an ad featuring attorney general - former Attorney General Eric Holder. Critics say she's fearmongering with this. Decide for yourself.

[14:10:09] You're watching CNN's special live coverage from Des Moines, Iowa. I'm Brooke Baldwin. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: And we're back. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin, live here in Des Moines, Iowa.

And with the exception of Donald Trump, who is in New Hampshire at the moment, Republicans and Democrats are busy crisscrossing this state today with only three days remaining before the nation's first presidential contest of this election year. They are busy, busy, holding rallies and town halls.

And even though the road to the White House begins here in Iowa, history shows that since the 1970s, only three Republicans and five Democrats who won here have actually gone on to win their respective party's domination. So the question we're asking today is, is Iowa overrated?

I'm joined now by CNN national political reporter Maeve Reston here with me in Des Moines, and in New York, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. She's also the president and CEO of the polling company and does analytics for one of Ted Cruz's super PACs.

[14:15:12] So, ladies, welcome.

Maeve, I'm just going to turn to you, why does Iowa matter?

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, I mean, Iowa's had an historical lock. I mean the first in the nation contest, obviously. And a lot of people in the party even would like to change that. But this goes back, you know, even to the '70s, when someone like Jimmy Carter came to Iowa, a little known Georgia governor, who was able to work his way around the state and really reshape the presidential contest. And so it's a place where people can come without huge advertising dollars -

BALDWIN: Levels of playing field.

RESTON: Win over voters. Really stand out by going to these tiny towns, you know, sometimes with just 20 people in the room and that's why people like Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee have been able to win in these past contests because they really worked it, all 99 counties, and people over time got to know them and then they pulled off a surprise on caucus night.

BALDWIN: They pulled the surprise off and then ultimately they didn't win the party's nomination.

RESTON: Right. BALDWIN: Or even, obviously, win the presidency. But then, then Senator Barack Obama, obviously was a different story for him in '08.

So, Kellyanne, if the caucuses aren't necessarily the best indicator of who goes on to secure the presidency, then why continue the tradition?

KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN POLLSER: Oh, because in politics inertia is the most powerful physical force unless and until overtaken by friction. So what Maeve says the conversations, it's absolutely true. These conversations happen almost constantly. That let's change it and why are Iowa and New Hampshire so dominant. But next week we will talk a little bit about Iowa and then it will fade to view when everybody just gets right to New Hampshire and then South Carolina and Nevada. We have four contests, two caucuses, two primaries, just in the month of February. So it will be a very busy month.

But the other thing is, I think Maeve touched on a very important point there. Our candidates for whom Iowa makes this difference, it puts them on the map because the shoe leather and the showing up is how you win Iowa. But I do suspect, Brooke, that the way you started this segment is the way everybody who does not win on Monday night will come out on Tuesday. They will say, well, it doesn't really matter because I want to be the nominee and Iowa has a bad, bad record of picking the nominee.

BALDWIN: But I think to Maeve's point as well, listen, if we were sitting in a Florida or a New York or a California and you had someone like a Donald Trump, who just rolls on in and chunks a bunch of money down for ads, it just - it wouldn't be fair perhaps to everyone else.

Let me though read you, this is part of Timothy Eagan's (ph) opinion piece from "The New York Times," quote, "Iowa looks nothing like the rest of America. As a result, the winners, more often than not, are nationally unelectable extremists. You're supposed to be vetting, Iowa. You're supposed to be culling out the crazies. You're supposed to recognize the fraud of Ted Cruz and how Donald Trump is playing you. For all your touted small-town verities, you're not doing your job. Your bull manure detector is broken." I mean you're smiling and laughing, but is there any truth to that?

RESTON: Well, I mean, I think that the people that you meet out in these towns really do reflect, you know, what people are thinking in the heartland. And so to that extent it is important, you know, what people in Iowa here think of the candidates. Someone like Ted Cruz has really connected with evangelicals here. At the same time, Donald Trump has up-ended, you know, every piece of this - this race here in Iowa by - by coming in and, you know, with his 5 million Twitter followers. And so it's really just all conventional wisdom might not matter on Monday and the vetting that has happened here might not matter of the other candidates because Donald Trump may just blow it out.

BALDWIN: In three days, Kellyanne Conway, what could be the biggest surprise for all of us? CONWAY: The biggest surprise is that Donald Trump does not win. He's

been leading in every single poll nationwide. And in most states, with the exception maybe two or three polls for one or two weeks, ladies. I mean like the entire time, six months. So if he doesn't win, it doesn't mean the polls are wrong, it means exactly what Maeve just said, which is voters have a very funny way of either repeating history or making it. And they could - they're - they're poised to make history this time one way or the other because I think the establishment candidates are actually getting nowhere in Iowa. They'll struggle in New Hampshire. But I think that would be the big story.

The other big story would - if Donald Trump does win Iowa, by how much, because it's not winner take all. So he doesn't get all the delegates and everybody gets zero. He - four or five people at least will walk out of Iowa with delegates in their pockets.

BALDWIN: And to everyone's point, you know, here in Iowa you can change your point. This is not checking a box.

CONWAY: Right.

BALDWIN: This is a - this is a coming in, listening and change your mind. Maeve Reston and Kellyanne Conway, ladies, thank you very much. Liked the inertia quote, by the way.

Coming up next -

CONWAY: You can have it.

BALDWIN: Did - did Donald Trump steal the - thank you. Did Donald Trump steal the show without showing up to that Republican debate? The ratings are in. We will see what the debate numbers look like without the front runner on the stage.

[14:19:59] Also ahead, was it an inside job? Moving off of politics, we have to talk about this today. Reports of a major development involving that Russian airliner suspected of being bombed out of the sky over Egypt. Focus now turning to an airline mechanic. New details into CNN. That's straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: A card game is always different when there's no trump, but it appears that is not the case for the seventh Republican primary face- off that did not feature presidential frontrunner Donald Trump. The trumpless debate clocked 12.5 million viewers according to Neilson. That is the second lowest viewership of the debates thus far this season, but far more than the 2 million-plus people who watched coverage of Trump's competing event.

With me now, the man who watches all the numbers with us at CNN, CNN's senior media correspondent, host of "Reliable Sources," Brian Stelter. He laughs because I'm right. And Jill Olmsted, media analyst and journalism and communications professor at American University.

[14:25:12] So great to have both of you all on. Brian, I can only imagine your eagerness getting the numbers. So now

that we have them, how did the numbers for the debate stack up against previous debates and how do you think it would have factored had Trump shown up?

BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: My head is almost spinning look at all these numbers. It is a fascinating case study because Donald Trump knows he's a ratings magnet. And this data shows us maybe how much he is. We can show on screen how this compares to prior debates. Twelve and a half million viewers last night is impressive, but you can see here how December 15th, remember our debate in Las Vegas from about a month and a half ago, that had 18 million viewers. Now, there was a more recent debate in between CNN's and Fox News'. It was on Fox Business. And you can see in the middle of the screen there, it had 11 million viewers.

So the message today from the Fox News side is, we beat the ratings from two weeks ago. But that's misleading because the debate on Fox Business was on a harder to find channel and it wasn't nearly as much drama and anticipation. This debate was hyped like no debate had been before. And I think when we see there were only 12.5 million viewers, it means that some of Trump's fans definitely did not watch Fox. Instead, they went to find Trump here on CNN or MSNBC or online or on C-SPAN. So there was clearly some impact. I think Trump did do some damage from Fox's ratings.

But that said, we should say one more thing, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, they were still in front of a big audience last night. They had a great opportunity to speak to more than 10 million possible voters. So the question is, did they squander it or not. I guess we'll find out starting on Monday.

BALDWIN: We'll find out Monday.

Jill, do you think it was a risk worth taking for Trump seeing those numbers?

JILL OLMSTED, MEDIA ANALYST: I absolutely do, and I don't see how he could have avoided it because Fox really made a little box that they couldn't get out of.

BALDWIN: Yes.

OLMSTED: Once those nasty comments were made about Mr. Trump, not by a columnist, not somebody like Bill O'Reilly, who's paid to give his opinion, but by the public relations department. Once that was made, then Mr. Trump had a perfect excuse to get out of the debate.

Whether or not he was actually afraid of Megyn Kelly, I don't know. I - I kind of doubt that. But I find her to be a very tough interviewer. So I think Mr. Trump actually ended up on top once again.

And, you know, perception really does, to use a phrase, trump reality. And if in the minds of viewers Mr. Trump comes off as the person who has shown a powerful leader, as I think he did, then regardless of whether you like him or not, he won the day. BALDWIN: And - and if this is a -

STELTER: There was a risk though I think with -

BALDWIN: IF this is a check in the win column - hand on Stelter -

STELTER: Yes.

BALDWIN: If this is a check in the win column for - for Trump, does he dare try something like this again?

STELTER: Oh, boy.

OLMSTED: Ah, well, wow.

Go ahead, Brian.

BALDWIN: Brian - Brian, I'm going to give this one to you.

STELTER: Well, this time next week there's a debate on ABC. If Trump doesn't go to that debate, everybody's going to say the same thing, you are a wimp. You are afraid to debate. We know you're afraid to debate. So I think he has no choice. He'll have to go to next week's debate.

But you raise an interesting question down the road. Can he continue to do this if he gets upset with the television network? Can he threaten to take himself away? I do think that's possible, although not next week.

Unfortunately, I think the campaign manager of his Trump campaign went a little too far setting expectations earlier this week. He said on "Morning Joe," I think without Trump this debate might only get 1 million or 2 million viewers. That was obviously an overstatement. This debate still got 12 million viewers without Trump. So although he does have some ratings pull, it's not - it's not 100 percent.

OLMSTED: I would agree with that.

BALDWIN: Jill, last question to you. If - go ahead. And then I've got one more. Go ahead. You can respond to that.

OLMSTED: Well, I would agree - I would agree with that because, you know, well, first off, the ABC debate is logically going to be viewed by more people because the networks have a bigger draw then the cable networks do. And, in fact, a lot of my students aren't even subscribed to cable television. So the only way that they're going to find out about this -

BALDWIN: Say it ain't so, Jill.

STELTER: We'll get them hooked up for you. But actually in this season -

OLMSTED: I'm trying. STELTER: Political is doing better than broadcast for the first time and Fox News does live stream its debates, CNN Live streams. So people are able to find them at least and it's amazing how high these numbers are.

OLMSTED: Well, that's the key. That's the key is it's going to be -

BALDWIN: You're (INAUDIBLE), Brian.

OLMSTED: It's going to be done through unconventional ways.

STELTER: Yes.

OLMSTED: And - and it still will work for them if they - and it ended up on social media, for example. So, there you go.

STELTER: And, you know, that's what's so instreaming about this.

BALDWIN: Those young people have cell phones.

STELTER: Even through Trump wasn't on the stage, he still dominated Twitter. People were still talking about him.

OLMSTED: Yes.

BALDWIN: Yes, he did.

STELTER: We're still talking about him now. So it almost didn't matter he didn't show up because he still won the night.

[14:30:00] OLMSTED: Right. And I don't think that he's -

BALDWIN: Incredible. Brian Stelter and Jill Olmsted -

OLMSTED: OK.

BALDWIN: Let me just - let me leave it. Thank you so much.

STELTER: Thank you.

BALDWIN: And, you know, make sure you tell your - your young people that there are cell phones and there's a little thing called cnn.com -

OLMSTED: Yes.

STELTER: Yes, right here.

BALDWIN: And CNN Go and they can find us wherever, even if they don't have cable. No