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Trump, Clinton Lead Final "Iowa Poll"; Candidates Crisscross Iowa in Last-Ditch Effort. Aired 7-8p ET
Aired January 30, 2016 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:00:11] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Top of the hour, I'm Poppy Harlow in New York. It is 7:00 here. It is 6:00 in the evening in Des Moines, Iowa. That is where all eyes are right now.
Just two days before the critical Iowa caucuses, breaking news out of Iowa. Tonight, the latest numbers from the Iowa poll from "The Des Moines Register." This is considered the gold standard when it comes to polling in Iowa. It's been a mainstay of presidential politics for more than 70 years.
Here are the numbers. Hillary Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent. That is a smaller spread than just a margin of error.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz leading the Republican field, 28 percent for Trump, 23 percent for Cruz. Rubio coming in at 15 percent.
I want to go straight to my friend, my colleague, Erin Burnett. She joins me live from Des Moines.
They were waiting for these numbers, Erin, and now have them.
ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR, "ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT": We have them. And as you say, "Des Moines Register", you know, known for the most accurate polling. They do it in a way others don't. And this poll has such a long history of accuracy, Poppy, going all the way back to 1943, which is pretty stunning when you think about. Just those numbers, and how accurate you've been.
As you said, within the margin of error for Clinton and for Sanders. And Trump five points ahead of Ted Cruz, which is also going to be crucial.
Jeff Zeleny is here with me to talk about them.
And this is pretty stunning here.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: It is.
BURNETT: "The Des Moines Register" poll, start on the Republican side, had been something Donald Trump but not pleased with and not paying any attention to because it was up with of the ones that wasn't giving him a real lead, and now it is.
ZELENY: I think he will be reading this poll and trumpeting it. I mean, he is leading 5 percent in this. What I'm struck by, this is after the debate. This includes the Thursday night episode here in Des Moines where he sort of had a split screen sideshow, 28 points, Cruz 23.
I'm also struck by the fact that Marco Rubio had 15 points. Not surging. There feels like there's energy on the ground out there for Marco Rubio but he is about in the same position here. So I think that I was expecting a tighter margin between two and three there.
The others are completely in the cellar. Everyone else is below 10 percentage points.
But the Democratic side so interestingly inside the margin of error. She's at 45 percent, Bernie Sanders at 42 percent. So, striking.
BURNETT: So, when we look at the challenges for Secretary Clinton, how important it is for her to win Iowa. You've been talking about women. She wins among women overall, but there is a huge age breakdown in this, which is pretty stunning.
ZELENY: Sure there is. Among women over 45, she wins 55 percent to 32 percent. Among women under 45, he wins 48 percent to 33 percent. And that I think is so fascinating.
I've been talking to so many women voters for the last couple of weeks I've been in Iowa, and I'm struck by the fact there's more urgency among older women. They want to see a woman in the White House. They believe she is the most experienced.
Some younger women I talk to, a 21-year-old student at Drake University here, she said there's going to be a woman president in my lifetime, probably soon, but I like Bernie Sanders. I like his energy.
BURNETT: She doesn't feel this pressure I have to vote for the woman.
ZELENY: The question is are young voters going to defy convention and turn out to caucus? They haven't really done that much before. Those older women voters here in Iowa, they know how to do it, drag to the polls through snow, whatever.
That is the question. Can social media drive young people in ways we haven't seen before? So, it's an interesting sort of 48 hours I guess almost exactly until the caucuses.
BURNETT: It is exciting, and it is exciting at the end, you know, for all of us watching around the country and the media when it doesn't have a runaway winner. I mean, you want to see it come down to the wire and be about turnout.
ZELENY: And that it is.
BURNETT: All right. Well, Jeff Zeleny, thank you very much. And I want to go straight to Democratic pollster and consultant, Joel
Benenson of Hillary for America, all right?
So, that's where you stand, that's who you're looking at. But when you get this poll from the "Des Moines Register" known for its accuracy, lauded for that, and you see it as a margin of error race, do you get nervous?
JOEL BENENSON, CHIEF STRATEGIST, HILLARY FOR AMERICA: No, I don't get nervous. I -- look, Ann Selzer, has a great reputation in Iowa. We expected it to be close. You know, people say it's within the margin of error. Margin of error means that each number could be plus or minus four points, it's not like it's a four-point race and it's all tight.
What you care about is what's going on inside that. Some of the numbers that Jeff just pointed out, you know, our lead among women overall, particularly women over 45, lead generally with older voters, we believe we haven't seen all of this poll yet, because it just came out. But we believe it looks like the people who are most committed to caucusing seem to lean our way.
But, look, we've said since I think the spring, this is going to be close. We have an organization around this state to get our voters to the caucuses because that's what this is going to come down to on Monday night.
BURNETT: All right. Are you, though, concerned about this issue with younger women? I know you and I have talked about this.
[19:05:01] But that younger women say, yes, sure, we want a woman in the White House, but it could be -- it's going to happen at some point, I don't need it to happen now, I'm going to vote for who I think is the best person and the young women -- I mean, many polls are showing and certainly this one in Des Moines tonight that younger women aren't making Hillary Clinton their choice.
BENENSON: The key in all these contests is to put together a coalition of voters across a range of demographic groups and voting groups that you can win with. It's not about any one group. It's not about one slice of the electorate. The key is if you're, you know, we've got a 12-point deficit with women under 45, but a bigger margin with women over 45, and a significant with women overall.
And I think what you have to piece together your group of voters to get to 50 percent here, particularly as it looks like, you know, we're going to be down to a two-person race on caucus night once the candidates who respect viable, in this case, Governor O'Malley, if he doesn't have viability, those voters have to re-caucus.
BURNETT: What's your plan if Secretary Clinton does not win Iowa, she doesn't pull it out?
BENENSON: Look, we've said -- all the way through here, we said this is going to be a long path to the nomination. It's going to go past Iowa, past New Hampshire. We want to win in Iowa on Monday night. We want to go to New Hampshire, tighten that race up and win there.
But, you know, we feel very good about states beyond that, Nevada, South Carolina, Super Tuesday. We don't expect this race to be over. These two states are the first two, but we've got about a thousand delegates that are going to be decided between Super Tuesday after New Hampshire and Super Tuesday. That's a lot of delegates.
BURNETT: All true. But most people, including a lot of people in your campaign, whether -- maybe you weren't one of them, but a lot of people did think that this would be easy, OK? And it hasn't been. It hasn't been -- Bernie Sanders came out of nowhere and tapped into this groundswell of passion that frankly nobody, not just people in Hillary Clinton's campaign, but nobody expected.
BENENSON: I never expect these things to be easy. When you're running for president of the United States, it should be hard, you should be tested. We always expected it. You can't take voters for granted.
That's why we said from the beginning, we've got to go out and earn every vote. No one is going to hand you this job. If it was easy job, they might hand it to you. But voters are very -- and in these states in particular, the voters here are particular about wanting to see from you, hear from you, and they've got six months to do it.
We go on from here, you've got a much shorter time span in each state, you have to communicate more quickly. You've got to leverage your strengths and perform very well in a very short amount of time.
BURNETT: How will she do compared to Barack Obama who you worked with in this state? You were one of the architects of that winning strategy all the way through but also here in Iowa. That was record, turnout record and everything. Is it going to come even close?
BENENSON: I didn't see what Ann Selzer's projection on the turnout was here, but her earlier polls had it at 300,000. We're not seeing anything like that. We're seeing a projected turnout somewhere in the mid-100s. I think people were surprised eight years ago at the numbers, the 220-some thousand.
BURNETT: Right.
BENENSON: I think in terms of how she's going to do here, the strength and what Hillary Clinton has built this time in the campaign and a much more superior way is a ground organization with 4,000 captains and team leaders and 1,600 precincts around this state.
I think that the Clinton campaign of 2016 has built a superior organization, whereas in 2008 they weren't able to match the organization on the ground of the Obama campaign. I think that was an important lesson learned and I think Monday night, we've got to put the game plan into play and make it work all across the state.
BURNETT: We'll see if her numbers have changed but also that 300,000 would be stunning. Joel, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
BENENSON: Thank you, Erin.
BURNETT: Of course, we are here in these final 48 hours. It is very exciting. This is the place to be. You get the feeling of energy -- get off the plane, there's reporters from Japan and China all over the world to cover the Iowa caucuses. All the campaigning and debates.
It is decision time on Monday. It will all come down to this, the Iowa caucuses, here. We are all over it all day long. We'll be here on the ground only on CNN.
And we will be back in just a moment. Ahead this hour, you're going to hear from Bernie Sanders as all the candidates are making their final pitches. Donald Trump, both live on the campaign trail on this Saturday night in Des Moines.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:11:54] HARLOW: All right. All eyes on Iowa and the gold standard of Iowa polls just came out moments ago. Two days left before those critical first of the nation Iowa caucuses.
Here are the numbers for the Democrats. "Des Moines Register" poll showing Bernie Sanders trailing rival Hillary Clinton in Iowa but just by 3 percent. That is a smaller spread than the four-point margin of error. Clinton at 45, Sanders at 42.
Sanders just spoke to our very own Brianna Keilar about his chances in Iowa. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Senator, how are you feeling?
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good. Feeling great. I think we're going to win this.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Feeling great, I think we're going to win this. You know who else thinks that? Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver. He joins me now from Des Moines.
Thank you for being with me. Obviously you would have wanted to come out on top in this poll because this poll gets it right time and time again. What's your reaction?
JEFF WEAVER, BERNIE SANDERS CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Well, I think, look, it's a fantastic poll for us. We're within the margin of error. We started this nine months ago, we were in single digits and if I had told you, Poppy, back then we were going to be neck and neck a couple days before the caucus, you would have said I'm insane.
But here we are, tremendous momentum. Bernie is running around the state, huge enthusiastic crowds. You know, it's not bad to be just a little bit behind before caucus day, just to motivate our folks to come on out.
HARLOW: On that sort of strategy underdog perspective, I want you to listen to what your guy, what Sanders said today about his chances there. Let's roll it.
WEAVER: Sure.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANDERS: We will win the caucus on Monday night if there is a large voter turnout. We will lose the caucus on Monday night if there is a low voter turnout.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: So, that surprised me, Jeff, because I was thinking why would you say anything but we're going to win? Is this part of a strategy in your camp, sort of under-promise, over-deliver?
WEAVER: No, well, look, I think what Bernie said was absolutely true. Look, both candidates have enough support in Iowa to win. That's the fact. Question is, who comes out? The larger the voter turnout is, the more Senator Sanders supporters will come out and the more likely it is we will win.
So, people in Iowa know if they want Bernie Sanders to win they have to come out to caucus Monday night.
HARLOW: All right. Sanders fellow Democrat Nancy Pelosi came out this week, she's not backing anyone right now publicly. But she said, look, in opposition of Sanders, Medicare for all plan, she said we are not running on any platform and raising taxes."
On top of that, "The Washington Post" wrote a pretty scathing editorial. Here's part of it. You've read it.
"Mr. Sanders is not a great truth teller. He is a politician selling his own brand of fiction to a slice of the country that eagerly wants to buy it." It goes on to say, "He would be a brave truth teller if he explained how he would go about rationing health care like European countries do."
Jeff, your response.
WEAVER: Well, it's laughable. Thankfully we're not running for president of "The Washington Post" editorial board. But I would point people to the "Quad City Times" editorial that just came out in Iowa which talks about Senator Sanders as a bold visionary who's willing to take on the billionaire class as opposed to his opponent, who represents the stale status quo.
So, I'll take "The Quad City Times" over the "Washington Post" any day.
HARLOW: All right. Let's talk about strategy here because Martin O'Malley, right, he's nowhere near your camp or Clinton's camp in terms of the numbers, but according to the rules of the Iowa caucus, to get viability he needs to get 15 percent support in the caucuses on Monday night.
If he doesn't, those caucus-goers will have to throw their support behind someone else. That will be Clinton or that will be Sanders. What's your pitch to them?
WEAVER: Right. Well, our pitch to them is Governor O'Malley has laid out a vision, you know, talked about a Wall Street, the problems with Wall Street and the over-influence of Wall Street. He's talked about a lot of progressive issues.
And we really think for those voters who have supported Governor O'Malley, who has been a strong candidate in many ways, running a very good campaign, that those voters should look to Senator Sanders, who has articulated a vision and an agenda which is much closer to the one that Governor O'Malley has articulated during the course of this campaign.
HARLOW: So, it's going to be the income inequality, anti-Wall Street push you think will tip him over the edge.
All right. We'll watch. Jeff Weaver, appreciate your time tonight. Thank you.
WEAVER: Thanks. Glad to be here.
HARLOW: Donald Trump is the front runner this latest Iowa poll out of the "Des Moines Register." So, why is Ted Cruz going after the other man on your screen, Marco Rubio? What's the strategy behind that?
We'll talk about it, next.
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HARLOW: You're looking at live pictures, Bernie Sanders making that final pitch in Iowa, just got on the stage there in Cedar Rapids.
[19:20:04] We will monitor for you as he goes head to head with Hillary Clinton. Very tight race there in Iowa.
Two days before the first in the nation Iowa caucuses. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz's camp taking quite a gamble, deciding to shift all their negative advertising from attacking Donald Trump to attacking Marco Rubio.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, TED CRUZ CAMPAIGN)
AD NARRATOR: Caucus for Cruz, undo Obama's damage.
Marco Rubio's different. The Republican Obama who championed Obama's honesty and led the gang of eight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: So, that move comes as a brand-new poll out of Iowa, the "Des Moines Register" poll, shows Rubio in third place, far behind Cruz and Trump. Question becomes if Trump beats Cruz in Iowa, could establishment Republicans flock to Rubio's camp and put him on the path to the nomination?
Joining me, CNN senior political analyst, former adviser to four presidents, David Gergen.
What do you think, David? So much talk about this momentum and enthusiasm for Rubio. You don't see it in those numbers.
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You certainly don't. And this is a very important poll as you've said all along. And what we see right now is despite the talk of momentum on the ground by Rubio, the poll just does not reflect it. If this is where the votes come out with Rubio 13 points back of Trump right now, this poll, eight points behind Cruz, I don't see where Rubio goes because in New Hampshire, he's fifth right now in the poll -- in the average of polls.
So, he has to get close than this in order to make this be much more competitive. Otherwise, Cruz can -- I think Cruz has been smart to go after Rubio. It may have helped to hold him back.
HARLOW: Mm-hmm. I think if there is one word synonymous with Iowa, it is ground game. I mean, how many times do we hear, it's the ground game, it's the ground game, because of the unique character of the caucuses?
I want to play this clip for you circa 1980, going back a little bit, "Saturday Night Live." It depicts how far some candidates were willing to go to win over Iowa voters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't know what to do. I don't understand it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is it multiplication, division and so forth?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, I'm a little bit rusty in that area but I would be happy to take the test for you.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What? Senator --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: We know, David, that Cruz has made that pledge to do the full Grassley visit, all 99 counties in Iowa. Trump focused on fewer but larger events. What's the strategy that wins you the people turning out in Iowa?
GERGEN: Well, ordinarily, it's the ground game. And Cruz apparently does have a ground game that's very, very significant. He's invested a lot of time. He's been very careful, just like Barack Obama was. There are some
similarities. But he doesn't have the magnetism, the charisma that Obama had.
So, I think his ground game will help and it could close this down. Trump is spending entirely now on turnout. But remember this, this is the first "Des Moines Register" poll that has had Trump out ahead.
HARLOW: Yes.
GERGEN: Six weeks ago, he was down ten to Ted Cruz. The next poll he was down three. And now, he's five points up. And this poll has called every election within just a small margin of error over the last few elections.
So, Trump is in better position than he was because even with an average turnout, it looks like he might win it if he can get voters out, that will make a massive difference.
If he can come out with a bag big win here, he's a long way toward looking like he may be inevitable.
HARLOW: But speaking of Trump, right, there's no question he got a lot of attention this week, right, just by not even being there, not even showing up at the debate. But I want you to consider this. I thought this was well written. It stood out in a CNN.com piece, talking about Trump, quote, "His absence exposed a reality of most of the Republican debates. Bombastic as he's been, he was never at the center of any policy battles."
When you look at an Iowa electorate, that's what we love about Iowans, they are so engaged. To some, they're surprised that it resonates that he's not been on the policy, on the policy, on the policy.
GERGEN: I agree. I think if there's been a disappointment in this whole campaign. It's been how little substance has mattered. It's all been about personality and Donald Trump sort of driving the conversation both with his antics and frankly he's pretty perceptive how to go after people.
But I think ultimately, in the big campaign that's coming, the general election will have to get back to substance. The country has got to resolve some of these big issues about where we're going on immigration, economic growth and the like. But right now, this is almost a substance-free campaign on the Republican side. And it's working in Trump's favor.
HARLOW: All right. David Gergen, we'll watch those numbers. Tonight, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, in the lead in Iowa.
[19:25:01] David Gergen, thank you so much.
GERGEN: Watch out for Clinton. She must be looking at this vexed by those numbers on the women. That's major that she would be winning so big above 45 and losing so big among under 45.
HARLOW: Young women. Yes, as Erin was just talking to her camp about that. David Gergen, thanks so much. Appreciate it.
A lot ahead tonight from Iowa on the trail on Iowa. On the left, Bernie Sanders speaking in Cedar Rapids. On the night, another rally in Davenport getting under way, waiting for Trump to take the stage.
Stay right with us. Much more ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: All right. This just in: the latest CNN poll of polls released just moments ago. It averages the results of the five most recent publicly released Iowa polls that meet CNN's standard from publications.
What does it show? It shows Hillary Clinton has a three-point lead over Bernie Sanders there, 47 percent to 44 percent, Martin O'Malley trails at 4 percent support.
On the GOP side, Trump with a six-point lead, 31 percent over Ted Cruz's 25 percent, in third Marco Rubio with 15 percent. The candidates making their final pitch, their final case, their closing arguments with Iowa voters, two days to go before those crucial first in the nation caucuses.
Our very own Erin Burnett live in Des Moines tonight -- Erin.
BURNETT: All right. Poppy, you're talk about these last-minute pitches. We're getting one at this moment from Bernie Sanders. And just a couple of moments ago, as he was speaking live in Cedar Rapids, right here in Iowa, he was slamming Hillary Clinton over donations to her super PAC. Here he is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANDERS: So, yes, yep, my opponent can brag about raising millions of dollars for her super PAC, but our average contribution is $27. I'm very proud of that.
(APPLAUSE)
[19:30:00] SANDERS: To paraphrase Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, this is a campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Bernie Sanders, of course, we recently did a look at the Wall Street donations has gotten absolutely nothing from Wall Street, really the only candidate who can say that. Certianly Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton, none can say that, of course, other than Donald Trump.
Let's take another look at that crucial poll here out of the "Des Moines Register," and a Bloomberg poll. This is seen as the gold standard of polls proven to be a reliable indicator of how the caucusing will go. Here's what it shows on the GOP side. 28 percent for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, five percent lower at 23 percent. Then you have Marco Rubio and you have Ben Carson and everyone else is below that.
On the democratic side, that is a dead heat statistically because it's within the margin of error. Hillary Clinton ahead 45 to Bernie Sanders' 42 percent. This is going to come down to turnout. Going on right now in Davenport, Iowa, Donald Trump is going to be joined by Jerry Falwell Jr., the evangelical leader, head of the largest Christian university in the world who has came out and endorsed him.
This is one of Trump's three rallies today as he's trying to get evangelicals, such a crucial voting bloc here in Iowa, to go to caucus on Monday night. CNN ORC poll this week showing Trump with a big lead nationally among evangelicals. You see that 39 to 25 percent. Democrat Bernie Sanders is wrapping his day with a rally and concert kicking off in Iowa as I just showed you.
He told our Brianna Keilar this afternoon he's feeling great and he thinks he's going to win. And at 8:00, because they're all out, Bernie Sanders you just heard him there. He is hoarse, he sounded like he's losing his voice, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio are going to be rallying in Dubuque and Urbandale tonight. All three Clintons, Hillary, Bill and Chelsea will rally at 8:15 in Cedar Rapids. So everybody is out tonight.
Let's bring in our political commentator, Ana NAvaroo, a good friend of Marco Rubio, supporter of Jeb Bush and CNN commentator, Bakari Sellers, attorney and former member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, he supports Hillary Clinton.
OK. I want to get straight to this poll. Because I had a chance to look through it from the headlines and there's some really exciting stuff in here.
OK. First of all, let's start with the overall. Ana, when you look at this, Jeb Bush nowhere to be seen in Iowa. Marco Rubio though at 15 percent. We have seen a momentum surge from Marco Rubio. Jeff Zeleny was saying he thought he would do a little bit better than this 15 percent to Ted Cruz 23, Donald Trump at 28. Do you share that or do you think that he's really looking at third if no chance at second?
ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I did too. I thought he was going to do a little better in this poll. But I am wondering if this late surge of Marco's was actually captured by this poll. You hear a lot of buzz about Marco in Iowa right now. His campaign is trying to tamp it down but it's out there in the streets. So I'm wondering, you know, this poll was conducted a day after the debate.
I'm wondering if the last 24 hours, the last 48 hours, having been very significant in shifting some of the momentum to his rival. Also, Erin, I've been on the ground for a few hours. I've talked to Iowans. Every Iowan I've talked to tells me they haven't made up their mind.
So, you know, that's another thing that you have to take into consideration. Look, this "Des Moines Register" poll is what everybody else is measuring against. The woman who conducts this poll, people just bow at her feet and say we are not worthy. That's the truth. This is such a weird, surreal year. It is the Alice in Wonderland year where you've gone through the looking glass and everything is upside down. It's the year of the unexpected on both sides.
BURNETT: I mean, it is. So I want to talk about turnout because this is for both sides.
BAKARI SELLERS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Exactly.
BURNETT: I'm just looking at this "Des Moines Register" poll. This is talking about first-time caucusgoers, which is so crucial for Donald Trump and for Bernie Sanders. Bakari, democrats, among likely democratic caucusgoers, 55 percent will have gone to caucus in the past. That's fine. 34 percent will never have caucused before. In early January when this poll was last taken, that number was only 26. It has surged and that of course is good news for Bernie Sanders.
SELLERS: Well, it is good news for Bernie Sanders. What we saw in 2008 was we saw a massive turnout for Barack Obama. In fact, the magic number is 240,000. If Bernie Sanders hits that number then it's going to be a long night for the Clinton campaign. We'll have to see what happens there.
BURNETT: Are you worried about that?
SELLERS: No, I'm not, because one of the things we've learned throughout this campaign is Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. And I think that has been said and that will be shown throughout the campaign. But even more importantly, turnout is huge. Even on the Republican side, you know, you had 118,000 show up in '08, you had 112,000 - 121,000 show up in 2012.
In order for Trump to run away with this, I mean, I would expect that he would have to have an increased turnout. We'll see. Ted Cruz is hoping for snow and Ted Cruz is hoping that the turnout is really low and if the turnout is low, Ted Cruz might --
[19:35:10]
NAVARRO: I will say, Bakari just said something which I think is really important. He said, you know, Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. And that's absolutely true. This is not the hope and change historical candidate that Barack Obama was. This is an old man. He's a 74-year-old self-proclaimed socialist who has got Hillary Clinton on the ropes again. So it should be even nor nerve-racking for Hillary Clinton this time. Let's also remember this is pretty much a two- person race on the democratic side right now as opposed to 2008.
BURNETT: Bakari, as to her weakness as a candidate --
(CROSSTALK)
SELLERS: The country wanted a race. And now we have a race. True indeed. I think that Hillary Clinton and Joel and everyone else who comes up here will tell you there should have been more attention paid to Bernie Sanders when he was building momentum, when he was having crowds in Washington and Minnesota, thousands and thousands of people. But this is a race. It's not easy to get to the White House, nor should it be.
When we leave here and we still have New Hampshire, we have Nevada, then everybody gets to come to my home, everybody gets to go to South Carolina.
NAVARRO: I can't wait. You know, shrimp and grits are my favorite.
Everybody on the Clinton side thought this was going to be easier. That's why they didn't take Bernie Sanders more seriously in the beginning.
BURNETT: You can admit this -
SELLERS: Certainly.
NAVARRO: They don't like to admit it.
SELLERS: That's fine. I'll get a text message later why did you say that and that's OK, but the fact of the matter is if someone shows up it's like basketball, if they get on the court and they put their shoes on like you put your shoes on, you have to take them seriously, you have to play ball.
BURNETT: I want to talk about the turnout here on the Republican side, Ana, because this is fascinating. Attended Republican caucuses in the past, 46 percent of likely caucusgoers. Forty percent, it will be their first time caucusing. There is more of them on the democratic side. It is up from only 29 percent who said that a few weeks ago. That of course is Donald Trump and Donald Trump cannot win without those first-time caucusgoers actually going. When you see 40 percent of voters who will be first-time caucusgoers, putting aside that you support Rubio, you like Bush, is that a transformational number?
NAVARRO: Yes.
SELLERS: Yes.
NAVARRO: I mean, I think what you are seeing is that's the Trump phenomenon on paper. You know, that is the $64,000 question for Monday. These huge crowds that he has had in the rallies. These huge lines that we have seen for hours and hours to get into his events, will those folks turn out and show up to caucus? If they do, he's going to win.
SELLERS: But even more importantly, I think this is the test, this is the question we have to answer on Monday - is Donald Trump, that phenomenon that he has, does he organize like a 2008 Barack Obama or is his campaign an organization run like he ran his Atlantic City hotels? I mean, that is going to be the test what happens Monday. If he's organized like Barack Obama, he's going to be the nominee.
NAVARRO: I'm not sure that's the right measure. Listen, Donald Trump is in a class on his own. He doesn't have - Barack Obama did not have the celebrity status, the persona --
SELLERS: That's true.
NAVARRO: -- the 100 percent name I.D. back in Iowa in 2008 that Donald Trump does. You can't judge him by the same measuring stick.
BURNETT: All right. Thank you both very much, and I'll be seeing a lot of you over the next 48 hours.
SELLERS: We're loving Iowa.
BURNETT: The excitement here in Iowa. Thanks, Ana Navarro and Bakari Sellers, to both of you.
Don't miss tomorrow's "State of the Union," three senators, all with their eyes on the White House - Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz. They will be on "State of the Union" with Jake in Iowa, a day before the caucuses. That is coming up tomorrow morning right here on CNN.
And Donald Trump may be counting on newcomers to try to win Iowa. Coming up, why Trump's ground strategy in Iowa depends on supporters who never caucused before. We have a special report on who they are, how they're going to make this decision, all done from here on the ground.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: There is one word that is the name of the game in Iowa, and that is enthusiasm. Not enough to poll well or pack a rally with huge crowds, you have to get the voters to caucus, physically in person on Monday night. If candidates cannot get their supporters to turn out, their chances of winning on Monday, well they plummet.
Sara Murray has much more on how Trump is trying to do just that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Brian Gegner has lived in Iowa for more than two decades and he's never caucused.
BRIAN GEGNER, DONALD TRUMP SUPPORTER: There's never been a candidate that's excited me enough to actually do it.
MURRAY (on camera): And you want to caucus for Trump this time.
GEGNER: Yes.
MURRAY (voice-over): Trump's odds Monday could hinge on first time caucusgoers like Gegner and people who have grown so disenfranchised they've stopped showing pup.
TRUMP: You have to go out and caucus. We're wasting time.
MURRAY: That's why Trump's team is inundating Gegner with e-mails and the occasional phone call to make sure he shows up on February 1st.
GEGNER: It seems hike they got their act together.
MURRAY: So you think he'll win in Iowa?
GEGNER: I hope so. Who wants to back a loser?
MURRAY: According to the polls, Trump is less likely to be a loser when you include people who stayed home last cycle. Our latest CNN/ORC poll in Iowa shows Trump leading Ted Cruz 37 percent to 26 percent. But when you narrow the question to Republicans who participated in the 2012 caucuses, the race becomes a dead heat.
Cruz polled 30 percent and Trump 28 percent.
Are you registered to caucus Monday?
Trump's strategy - make the process as easy as possible.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I have never caucused before so I'm very excited about this, being the first time.
MURRAY: He's even relying on volunteers who have never caucused themselves to simplify it for others.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thanks for coming.
MURRAY: Telling them where to go and when to arrive.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've been pulling up on my cell phone a website and I've been telling them exactly where they need to go depending on their zip code and their address.
MURRAY: It's a strategy that has party leaders preparing for the chance that turn out on caucus night could double 2012. When 120,000 Republicans caucused.
UNIDENTIFED MALE: In the party we're preparing for a doubling of that. That's not to say that's going to happen. A lot depends on whether Donald Trump can convert the passion of his folks into showing up at a caucus.
MURRAY: For Trump, there's still work to do. Several voters told us they're undecided and haven't heard from the campaign.
You're waving an awful lot of Trump for someone with an open mind.
UNIDENTIFED MALE: Yes, you know, I'm going with the spirit of it. Kind of embracing it today. Having some fun with it.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARLOW: You just got to wonder how many of those hats, those "Make America Great Again" hats have sold so far. You are at this rally in Davenport. You looked at the crowd behind you, a lot of supporters. How confident does Trump feel right now?
MURRAY: Well, look, Poppy, I think publicly Donald Trump says he wants to win, he hopes he can win, but all their behavior of him and his staff are very confident going into Iowa. Earlier today he brought his plane into Iowa. He did a fly-by at his earlier event. He invited kids to run around on his plane.
All of it sends a signal this is a guy who feels comfortable about where he stands in Iowa, he feels confident about going into caucus night, and the latest polls reflect that. The "Des Moines Register" poll you were talking about is the gold standard and that is a healthy lead with the caucus just days away.
[19:45:10]
HARLOW: And so critical who he's sitting there with. I don't know if we can get a wide shot but he's sitting with Jerry Fallwell Jr., a key evangelical, head of Liberty University. He just won that endorsement. That was huge for Iowa.
MURRAY: Yes, that's right, and I think the very smart thing that Donald Trump did was roll out key endorsements at very smart times. As he was taking incoming fire from Ted Cruz about his values and about immigration, he rolled out endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio, an immigration hard liner in Arizona, he rolled out this endorsement from Jerry Falwell Jr. who is a prominent evangelical leader. And so the campaign was very shrewd about unveiling those at the right times that he was taking these attacks on. I think you're seeing that reflected in the poll numbers now.
HARLOW: Yes, I think so but the question becomes can he do differently than Ronald Reagan. Reagan skipped the last Iowa debate before the caucuses, went on and lost Iowa, won New Hampshire, went on to with the nation. For Trump he skipped it yet he is getting all the attention.
MURRAY: Yes, and I think they are very happy with how that played out. If you saw the "Des Moines Register" front page the day after, it was all about Ted Cruz having a rough night. If you're Donald Trump, there's nothing that makes you happier than Ted Cruz standing in the middle of the stage being caught in the cross fire of all his rivals on every side. I think that's pretty much what we saw happen.
HARLOW: Yes. No question. All right. Sara Murray, thanks so much, live there for us in Davenport at a Trump event with Jerry Fallwell Jr. Appreciate it.
Coming up, much more from Iowa on the trail in Iowa. On the left, you see Bernie Sanders speaking in Cedar Rapids. On the right, that rally we just told you about with Donald Trump in Davenport. Much more, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:50:05]
BURNETT: All right. Ted Cruz has had a rough week. That's one of the things you can see from the polls. The next few days, though, we'll see what will happen in the next 48 hours. Let's just go through the just released Iowa poll from the "Des Moines Register."
It shows his lead over Donald Trump is gone. Keep in mind this is the poll that had shown Cruz leading. Donald Trump had scoffed at the poll. Now in the final hours, let me emphasize this was taken post debate. You see Donald Trump at 28 and Ted Cruz at 23.
Now the polls taken in December showed that downward trend for the Texas senator. His support has gone down, but as you can see, it was higher and you could see he was ahead by a significant margin in December. Marco Rubio has also risen in that time. So what is going on in Iowa? Is it a must win? I'm joined by Representative Alex Mooney. He is the chairman of Cruz for President in West Virginia.
So let me just make the point here, and you're saying to me, you've been involved in politics for a while but you haven't felt passionate enough to come out to Iowa and fight for someone until Ted Cruz. You've been out today knocking on doors. You've seen the "Des Moines Register" poll where Ted Cruz has dropped. That is not a good poll for him in these final hours. Do you feel that on the ground? Do you feel push back? Do you feel people worried?
ALEX MOONEY, CHAIRMAN FOR CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT, WEST VIRGINIA: You see hat I felt most on the ground, what surprised me a bit was the number of undecideds. You think there are a lot of candidates who have a lot of positives and negatives and differences and they're just still making up their mind, at least a third of the voters I talked to. We had a team that knocked about 150 doors and about a third are just completely undecided. We did have firm Ted Cruz supporters and some other folks who are rooting for other candidates. But this close to the actual voting time, two days out for so many people to be undecided, that's kind of surprising.
BURNETT: Are you, as someone who - (INAUDIBLE) West Virignia in May but you're out here fighting for Ted Cruz now.
MOONEY: Right.
BURNETT: How disappointed are you going to be if he does not win - I mean, this was supposed to be - if he wins Iowa this could be a real race. If he doesn't lose Iowa a lot of people think Donald Trump is going to run ahead with this. Do you think that?
MOONEY: I think Ted Cruz has a long game. Getting in to March 1st in the southern states I think he'll do very well. I just think he has to do well in the first beginning states and then continue to have a long plan. I think his path to nomination is very strong. That's one of the reasons I wanted to come out. He's a consistent conservative. I believe in that. He also has a very strong campaign I think has a very good path to the nomination. That's what I see happening.
BURNETT: So I want to ask you about these mailers. Because this is causing a big stir today. You know, Rand Paul tweeted out a picture of them. They come out. They say they're official. They're from the Ted Cruz campaign. Voters here in Iowa are getting them. They say voting violation at the top and then official public record at the top. Of course, it's not official. It's far from it. It's a campaign mailer.
It basically it names your neighbors so they know who you are and then it grades you A to F in terms of your voting history. Secretary of state here in Iowa has come out and said this is totally inappropriate. It's not right. What do you say to that? Is that something you would do in West Virginia? Are you concerned that the Cruz campaign is doing something like this?
MOONEY: Yes, I've actually seen that done in previous campaigns. I think the Iowa state party is doing that. I actually seem to recall that being done in West Virginia in the past.
BURNETT: Other people have done this. They put official record even though it isn't.
MOONEY: Well, your voting record is official. Whether you decide to vote or not is public record. That makes some people nervous -
BURNETT: (INAUDIBLE) the mailer is not.
MOONEY: Yes, it's official if you voted out. So it's reminding people to vote, encourage people to vote and I think both parties do it, frankly. It's kind of a new thing that's picked up some.
BURNETT: It might be dirty but it's done by all?
MOONEY: I wouldn't say it's dirty, it's just telling people to hopefully get out there and vote. (INAUDIBLE) get nervous they say please remember to vote and sometimes you mentioned, you may not have voted last year, how did you know that? Actually when you go and vote, it's public (INAUDIBLE) or you did not, every campaign has that information. That's how they target voters. So this is simply encouraging people to vote.
BURNETT: All right. So you don't have any issue with that. What is going to happen here in the final hours for Ted Cruz to try to do better? Because the reality of it is he was ahead and the perception that he was going to win Iowa. Donald Trump could come in second. People were saying maybe that would be OK. For Cruz to lose Iowa is going to be a blow to his momentum, isn't it?
MOONEY: Well, I think it's still open. Everyone wants to come in first or at least second.
BURNETT: SO you think he could still pull it out?
MOONEY: Sure. You got New Hampshire, South Carolina and then get him March 1st. Ted Cruz is going to do very well on March 1. It's a big day and it's not too far away.
BURNETT: Southern states.
MOONEY: Yes, ten southern states including Texas. I think that will propel him to a very good path to the nomination. At this point, it's getting out the vote. I mean there are undecided voters, they're going to walk into the polls in two days, still being undecided. They make up their mind when they're there. They'll hear the speeches which is unique about Iowa to hear speeches before they vote and they make up their mind. But there's over 700,000 registered Republicans, the largest ever Iowa turnout is 120,000. The question is who comes on Monday to vote. I think it's just a big push (INAUDIBLE) enthusiasm and every candidate is trying for that.
BURNETT: All right. Well, Alex, thank you very much. Nice to see you on a balmy evening here in Des Moines. It truly is balmy. I have to say. They say a blizzard is coming in on Tuesday after the voting. But I have to say it feels 40 something degrees out here. I'm over dressed. This is the trail on Iowa. You're looking live at what is happening 48 hours before, not even actually. I think 47 before the voting starts.
[19:55:10]
Bernie Sanders speaking in Cedar Rapids. Donald Trump is going to be speaking there, as you see, right at the podium now at a Trump rally in Davenport.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: Finally, tonight, the number is 3,019. That is how many voters were contacted for that "Des Moines Register" final poll that came out tonight. Despite this being the gold standard of polls, a poll is still just a poll. The only number in Iowa that really matters come Monday night is how many voters from across the state caucus in the precincts to cast their final votes for the man or woman who will be the next president of the United States or at least get that nomination.
Keep this in mind. Compared to 3,000 people, there are two million, more than two million registered voters in Iowa. So did the last poll get it right. We will find out less than 48 hours from now.
Thank you so much for being with Erin and I tonight. Next on CNN, the seminal rock band that change music forever, the "HISTORY OF THE EAGLES." That is up next at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
I'm Poppy Harlow in New York. Our extensive coverage of the Iowa caucuses continues tomorrow right here. I will see you here tomorrow night 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Have a great one.
