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Trump, Clinton Lead Polls Before Iowa Caucus; 13-year-old Body Found; Rubio in Third in Iowa; Deteriorating Weather Conditions for Iowa; Three Point Difference Between Hillary and Bernie. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired January 31, 2016 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:04] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Chelsea Clinton is up there talking a short time ago. Hillary Clinton and the latest poll, tiny little lead over Bernie Sanders.
Later this hour, former president Bill Clinton - he will be out stumping for his wife as well. Marco Rubio, he is set to take the stage in Cedar Rapids. This is his second event of the day. His team wants you to think that they have momentum, though the polls all show him persistently in third place. He does hope to change that over the next 24 hours.
There is a brand new poll which has a lot of people talking here this afternoon. Well, the CNN ORC poll of polls, which is the average of the five most recent Iowa polls shows Hillary Clinton is three points up of Bernie Sanders.
On the republican side, Donald Trump is six points up over Ted Cruz. We have team coverage across the entire state today.
CNN's senior political correspondent Brianna Keilar is with Hillary Clinton in Council Bluffs. Senior White House correspondent Jim Acosta with the Trump campaign. Senior political reporter Mona Raju is covering Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and also with us executive editor for CNN politics, Mark Preston. We are going to start with Mark Preston, with breaking news, not about Iowa, Mark, but about New Hampshire. Explain.
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, John, certainly all the attention right now is on Iowa and what is going to happen 24 hours from now. Who will come out victorious. But hen it moves quickly to New Hampshire and who is going to be leading at that point. But what we will be doing on Wednesday evening, CNN is hosting a town hall, closing arguments for the democratic candidates.
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, all on stage in Dairy, New Hampshire. Now this is very important for many reasons as we all know in New Hampshire known for its town hall style meetings. Very tough questions from very informed voters. That will take place Wednesday evening, 8:00, epic.
ANCHOR; And again, it will be a full contact sport in the state of New Hampshire. Again,, the timing here, it is fascinating, right? Because two days, and tomorrow night, Iowa caucuses, someone is going to win, someone is going to lose. And then they get on that plane and they go to New Hampshire on Wednesday night. They are on stage with Anderson Cooper and both are going to have a lot of work to do.
PRESTON: Both are going to have a lot to do as with Martin O'Malley, if we go back to last Monday, CNN held a similar event here in Iowa and very interesting. Very pointed questions. Chris Cuomo, moving the ball around very well. He's going to pass the baton off to Anderson Cooper this time but very tough questions. Look, if you answer a question poorly, that could be a major stumble. But if you have a good night, Hillary Clinton had a good night this past Monday, as did Bernie Sanders, could be a game changer.
BERMAN: Very interesting to see Wednesday night in Dairy, New Hampshire, a CNN town hall, Anderson Cooper moderates, the democrats will all take the stage. Do not miss it. Thank you so much, Mark.
Back here to Iowa. The Republican race, you can make a case that no one is working to rest harder in Iowa right now than Team Marco Rubio. Woke up yesterday here and there is this whisper campaign that there was something called Marco-mentum. The idea that he is surging in the polls. You're look at - I ythink - these are live pictures right now. Senator Rubio on stage in Cedar Rapids, not live pictures. It's taped. But he is due for an event coming up in just a little bit.
The polls all have Marco Rubio in third place behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. You know, Senator Rubio he spoke to Jake Tapper this morning on "State of the Union."
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So Ted, the lie that his whole campaign is built on that he is the only conservative and everyone else is a (INAUDIBLE) and a rhino, it's absurd, even on immigration. I mean he helped design George W. Bush's immigration policy. He talked openly in an interview, national interview, about needing to reach a compromise on people that are here illegally. I mean, there's a tweet that was going around yesterday that he put out during the immigration debate talking about legalization. He said he wanted to bring people out of the shadows. He said he wanted to obviously pass immigration reform.
So I think that it is just not an accurate statement. I've tried to fix a problem that's a very serious issue in Texas and in Florida. It's hard issue. Clearly we're not going to be able to do it comprehensively and we're not going to be able to do it until we first enforce our immigration laws. I don't support amnesty. We're not going to have amnesty when I'm president.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And his response is false. The amendment I offered was 38 words. It's one sentence. And it said nobody here illegally will ever be eligible for citizenship, period. Didn't say a word about legalization. The differences are very clear now. Marco supports amnesty, he supports legalization and he supports citizenship, today as a presidential candidate I oppose amnesty, I oppose citizenship, I oppose legalization. (END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: All right. Joining me now, CNN's Manu Raju. Manu, you'v ebeen following both these campaigns particularly the Rubio campaign, what is their goal here and how are they going to pull it off in the next 24 hours.
MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: One of the biggest goals is to make sure Ted Cruz does not win Iowa. You're hearing them talk up, how Ted Cruz should win Iowa in order - if he comes in second place, they'll say look, it was - he was the front-runner, he should have won. Why didn't he win? They want the narrative to be that Ted Cruz is stumbling.
[16:05:06]
The hope is that if Ted Cruz isn't getting first place if he ends up in second place then he's going to sort of fall off the map. His momentum will start to sap and he won't be able to win any more states in February. You have to worry about the Super Tuesday states. So that is goal number one.
Goal number two is to come in a strong third place finish. Well ahead of those other establishment favorites like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich in order to take the case to New Hampshire voters that they are the alternative to Donald Trump. We'll see if they are able to do just that, John.
BERMAN: Manu, stand by for just moment. I want to go to Council Bluffs, Iowa right now where I think Hillary Clinton is just taking the stage right now. She will talk to voters at this event. That is Chelsea Clinton speaking right now, introducing her mother to this crowd, let's listen in.
CHELSEA CLINTON, HILLARY CLINTON'S DAUGHTER: I am just so grateful to have the opportunity to be here with my mom. And I'm so proud to be my mother's daughter. And I am even more grateful to have this opportunity to support my mom because I'm now a mom.
This is the first presidential election that I will vote in as a mom. I have a 16-month-old daughter, Charlotte. And I have her little brother, or little sister on the way, and I am just overwhelmed with a sense of responsibility that the next person who will be our president will now lead the country that -
BERMAN: All right. We are watching Chelsea Clinton on stage with Hillary Clinton in Council Bluff. She is introducing her mother, when Hillary Clinton starts speaking, we will go back to that event. But first I want to bring in Brianna Keilar, actually at the site of the next Hillary Clinton event here in Des Moines.
Brianna, you have been covering the Clinton campaign for some time as we keep one eye on Council Bluff, how is she trying to seal the deal here in Iowa. The "Des Moines Register" poll has her up three points. They are pushing this organization thing, aren't they? BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: They are pushing
the organization thing. They think that they have the advantage when it comes to the ground game over Bernie Sanders. And they are also pushing this message. We're hearing this from Hillary Clinton. It is sort of a pragmatic message saying, "look, I'm a progressive who likes to get things done."
So she is trying to say that she is someone who is going to be more effective, that she is more capable than Bernie Sanders. And you can see she is also relying a little bit on the kind of full family affair. Her husband is going to be with her tonight. Her daughter as well, who you just saw there in Council Bluffs.
Her son-in-law we know is in town and so we're wondering if perhaps this could also be the debut of someone who has factored so large honestly in her campaign and that is her granddaughter, Charlotte. She uses Charlotte sort of as a way to say, this is the world I want to leave for my granddaughter. And so we are waiting to see if perhaps for the first time, we may be introduced to her.
But Bernie Sanders is trying meanwhile to really rally young voters. We saw him last night. He had a huge concert and rally and he is really trying to rely on young people who maybe aren't used to caucusing. We see in the "Des Moines Register" poll that one in three of the likely caucusgoers tomorrow night are new caucusgoers. That is something that works to Hillary Clinton's advantage. So that is also something that she is relying on, John.
BERMAN: Brianna, stand by. Let's listen in to Hillary Clinton for just a minute.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: ... she brought my granddaughter with her to Des Moines. I get to have a little time with Charlotte. I also am thrilled to be here with your senator, someone who's meant so much. Not only to this county and its constituents but to the state of Iowa and I'm honored to have been endorsed by Senator Gronstal. Thank you so much, Mike. Thank you.
And I'm thrilled to have Connie and Kate here with us as well. I really want to say something serious about Iowa politics. I'm running to be president, but it matters what happens to the people of Iowa to me. It matters to what happens to Americans. And I can't tell you how much this senator does to make sure that people in this state get the help they need, get the education they need, get the health care they need.
And that's particularly important right now because for reasons, honestly, I cannot understand, your governor, Terry Branstad, is trying to change dramatically, and in my view, damage the health care system that provides care for so many people who need it in this state by privatizing Medicaid and by making it very difficult for children and adults with disabilities to get the care they need. To make it more time consuming, burdensome and maybe not even available. I, personally, since I've been listening to Iowans for the last months and I've heard many of the concerns that people have, this one constantly is raised with me and I wanted to thank the senator for all he's doing to protect the services and health and dignity of so many.
[16:10:15]
So my friends, I also want to thank Linda Dellson. I know she is here somewhere. The county chair, there she is. I walked right by her. How are you, my dear? So happy to see you. And to all of you who have come out, I also want all my precinct captains, and my precinct team leaders and all my volunteers, please, raise your hands so that I can see you. And thank you so much!
Well, we are getting down to the last hours. Those of you who have already decided to support me, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I will do everything I can to make sure that your faith in me and the campaign we run will reflect the values and the vision that we share for our country.
For those of you still thinking about this, weighing your options, I hope I will be able to persuade you. Because the stakes in this election could not be higher. And if you hear what the Republicans who are cris crossing Iowa as well are saying --
BERMAN: All right. Hillary Clinton in Council Bluffs, Iowa saying she says that she hopes to change whatever mind she needs to over the course of this event. It'll be interesting to see. As Brianna Keilar noted, Chelsea Clinton on stage with her, baby Charlotte, brought Hillary Clinton's granddaughter to Iowa. She is here. Will Charlotte make her campaign debut sometime over the next 24 hours. It'll be interesting to see.
CNN is the place to be for complete coverage of the Iowa caucus. We will be live all day today. All day, tomorrow. All, tomorrow night. As the first votes are cast of the 2016 presidential race.
And some big news just in at CNN. We just announced we're holding a town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday. So just two days after the voting here on Wednesday, the democratic candidates will be on stage with Anderson Cooper at a town hall in the town of Derry, 8:00 pm. Wednesday night. A crucial moment. The timing could not be more interesting. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:15:30]
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everyone. I'm Martin Savage. We'll have more coverage of the Iowa caucuses in a moment.
But first, a second Virginia Tech student has been arrested in the abduction and murder of a 13-year-old girl. Police arrested a 19- year-old on a felony charge of disposing of body. Yesterday they arrested another Virginia Tech student on murder charges. Nicole Lovell disappeared from her home in (INAUDIBLE) Virginia, that was last Wednesday. Her body was found yesterday, nearly 100 miles away in North Carolina.
Our Nick Valencia is working on the details for us. Nick, what's the connection to this 13-year-old girl with these Virginia Tech students?
NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good question. Virginia State Police saying that there certainly was a connection between the 18- year-old Virginia Tech student and the 13-year-old girl who was found - her remains found Saturday afternoon. The extent of that connection, the nature of that relationship between the 18-year-old and the 13-year-old, that's really unclear. But police had already established him as a suspect. He was in custody at the time the remains were found on Saturday afternoon.
Last night, a vigil held by family and friends for 13-year-old Nicole Lovell. They reacted to her disappearance and news of her untimely death.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REBECCA LEMON, VIGIL ORGANIZER: (INAUDIBLE) to be a mother myself. And to know that this could have very easily been one of my children. It really - it really hits home.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VALENCIA: Her body WAS found 100 miles away from her home and it was 19-year-old Nicole Leaper, according to police, that helped that 18- year-old David Eisenhower dispose of the 13-year-old's body. Police do want to know more. They're reaching out to public, Martin, they want to know tips, any information that could lead them to establish exactly what the relationship was between this middle school student and this college student that you're looking at there.
Interestingly enough, our producer (INAUDIBLE) looked into this. We heard a lot about disappearances in Southern Virginia of young women. This is actually he sixth case since 2009 of a young girl either disappearing or murdered in Southern Virginia. Of course, they're not connected but it's bizarre circumstances, Nicole Lovell, 13-year-old girl, just the latest.
SAVIDGE: The big think you want to point out (INAUDIBLE).
VALENCIA: Absolutely. We still don't know that.
SAVIDGE: All right. Nick Valencia, thank you very much. We're back in Iowa with our special coverage ahead of the caucuses right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:21:20]
BERMAN: We are just about 24 hours away now from first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race here in Iowa. The Iowa caucuses. Want to go to Sioux City, Iowa. CNN's Jim Acosta is there. Donald Trump's second event of the day will be there. Earlier, Jim, you held an event with Jerry Falwell Jr., the evangelical leader, the president of Liberty University. Donald Trump making a big push with evangelicals. JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, John. I think the final 24 hours before the Iowa caucuses is basically boiled down to a battle for Christian conservatives between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. That's why Donald Trump is bringing Jerry Falwell Jr., the son of the famous televangelist to just about every campaign stop he is making here in Iowa, in this last push before the Iowa caucuses.
It's also the reason why you are hearing Donald Trump once again back to these lines of attack which have been fairly vicious. Aimed at Ted Cruz. He went after Ted Cruz once again in Council Bluffs, Iowa earlier today. Going after Ted Cruz's loans, campaign loans that he took out through his wife's firm, Goldman Sachs, back in 2012. Here's a bit of Donald Trump's line of attack on that. Here's what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is so dishonest. It is so dishonest. Then took an ad out about me. And he said that I'm in favor of Obamacare. My whole campaign is against Obamacare. The only way I can fight it I have a much bigger platform than anybody else. So when he does (INAUDIBLE) such a lie but what he doesn't say is that he filled out a financial disclosure, personal financial disclosure form and on the form he wants to pretend he is Robin Hood. He is going to protect everybody from Wall Street, big bad Wall Street, right?
He forgot to mention that he borrowed a lot of money at almost no interest. Anybody in this room would take the interest rate because he pays almost nothing, from Goldman Sachs, and from Citibank. Forgot to put the two banks on there. Forgot to mention it. And then, of course, his bigger problem is Canada. He was born in Canada and a lot of people are saying he can't even run for the election and so we'll find out about that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ACOSTA: Now, as for getting away from the zingers, I guess you might say, coming from Donald Trump, there is something interesting that you can sort of pick up, sort of an undercurrent of uncertainty that you don't here very often from Donald Trump. He's very brash. He's very confident on the campaign trail.
But yesterday in Dubuque and earlier today, he was almost needling on Iowans saying you haven't picked a winner in 16 years on the Republican side. Someone else has gone on and won the presidency. And he's essentially saying to Iowans, OK, here's your chance. And John, it was also interesting to hear Donald Trump talk about, you know, if this doesn't work out, there could be a cascading problem for him in the upcoming contest. And I think there is some truth to that.
Because of the polls right now, seem to show Donald Trump with such a comfortable lead right now, five points ahead of Ted Cruz, it could be closer obviously in the end, but if he doesn't win here in Iowa, then the questions will be raised, do these supporters that come out to Donald Trump's rallies and pack these auditoriums and stadiums and so forth, do they turn out and vote, do they turn out on caucus nights and so forth and that has to be causing some uncertainty and some angst I would think, inside the Trump campaign right now, John.
BERMAN: Yes, Jim Acosta for us in Sioux City. Donald Trump does not play the expectations game. He flat out says that he wants to win Iowa. He plans to win Iowa. It doesn't really play some of the political games we are used to.
Senator Marco Rubio, his team is playing the expectations game. They made the case, they are perfectly happy to finish in third place. They think that's strong enough to buy them the ticket out of Iowa. Senator Rubio speaking in Cedar Rapids, let's listen.
[16:25:05]
RUBIO: ... hiring 20,000 new border agents. We are going to finish the 700 miles of fencing and walls that we know that we need on the southern border. We will have a mandatory e-verify system which will make it virtually impossible to get hired in this country if you're not here legally. We will have a biometric entry-exit tracking system to prevent people from overstaying visas.
Forty percent of illegal immigrants are people that entered legally and overstayed visas. We only log people when they come in, not when they leave. So we have no idea who has overstayed. Until all of that is in place and all of that is working, nothing else will happen. We will deal with the rest of it. Not with amnesty.
If you're a criminal alien you will be is deported. If you are a sanctuary city when I'm president you will lose all of your federal funding.
The most important job of a president, is the commander-in-chief. It's the most important job of a president. Our current president is a terrible commander-in-chief. The world has grown more dangerous in the last seven years. There is now a lunatic in North Korea with nuclear weapons. There is in China a government that steals our secrets, hacks our computers, steals the inventions of Americans, massively building up their military and taking over the South China Sea, the most important shipping lane in the world.
Vladimir Putin is sowing instability in the Middle East and in Europe. Iran is about to acquire $100 billion of sanctions relief which they use to build up their military and to sponsor terrorism and one day to either buy or build their own nuclear weapon. And ISIS is the most significant terror threat in the history of mankind. They are an apocalyptic group. They have a vision of the future that is frightening and it is what motivates them. ISIS believes that in the city of (INAUDIBLE), not the city of Dubuque, I said that wrong one time.
BERMAN: All right. Senator Marco Rubio there in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Making his closing arguments. The caucuses now just a little bit more than 24 hours away. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:30:00] BERMAN: All right. Marco Rubio's campaign says it is $225,000 short of its January fund raising goals. He sent out an e- mail asking donors to pitch in before midnight -- they're not really suffering financially. It's just a way to bring in more money right before the Iowa caucuses. The polls have Marco Rubio running in third place here, but his campaign spinning hard, working their ass telling us they have momentum heading into caucus night.
Joining me now is Tim Hutchinson, former Republican senator from the state of Arkansas -- a Marco Rubio supporter. Team Rubio want us to believe that a third place finish is satisfactory. Make the case.
TIM HUTCHINSON, FORMER REPUBLICAN SENATOR FROM ARKANSAS: Well, there is no candidate that has taken more incoming, had more negative ads run against him than Marco Rubio ads. And in spite of that, he continues to rise in the polls. I think that's pretty remarkable and a third place finish would be very remarkable given the attacks both from candidates below him and candidates above him.
BERMAN: I was reading in "Politico" this morning. Now, there is no candidate who has actually spent more days in Iowa over the last three months than Marco Rubio. No candidate spending more money right than Marco Rubio now in Iowa. But still, third place is okay?
HUTCHINSON: Well one again, I point to the number of attack ads. Ted Cruz just the day before yesterday starting this most recent, I think very disingenuous attack ad saying that Rubio is the Republican Obama which, you know, he's had far more governing and elected office experience than has Ted Cruz.
Could be said of Ted Cruz but he's the Republican Obama. So, he's being attacked from candidates all over the place. Yet, I think the commitment he's made to Iowa, the time he spent in Iowa has paid dividends and we see him rising in the polls. You have a very solid third place finish. I think that gives him great momentum as he moves on to New Hampshire.
BERMAN: You look at the calendar, what's the first state Marco Rubio's going to win?
HUTCHINSON: Well, not that I'm a prognosticator, but I think he going to win Arkansas come March 8th -- come march 1st, and the southeast primary. I think he's going to have a number of wins by then.
BERMAN: But you don't want to (ph) but not New Hampshire? Not South Carolina?
HUTCHINSON: Well, could be. We will see how much momentum comes out of Iowa.
BERMAN: Because I'm asking because the question with Marco Rubio is what's his path --
HUTCHINSON: This is a long slog and I think that's clear and I think he's going to run very strong in the southern states. He's going to pick up a lot of delegates there. He's going to run very strong in the western states and we will get to the winner take all.
So, I think there's a very clear and good path as we see the field (ph) as some of the so-called establishment candidates fade away. Marco Rubio looks better and better as the responsible, credible, sane alternative and I think that he's going to be our nominee.
BERMAN: So, you were in the Senate, you know what it is like to have a senate record. Marco Rubio's record in the Senate, he was part of the Gang of Eight, did push for that immigration bill. How do you think he's handling his explanation and the questions that are raised being raised by the other candidates on the stump?
HUTCHINSON: I think he's handled it brilliantly. He has -- first of all, let me say, having served in the Senate and National Journal rating me as the most conservative U.S. Senator, I think I know something about conservatism and you can't question the real conservatism of Marco Rubio with any kind of credibility. You can take any vote, with the process you have in the U.S. Senate, the amendments that are awkward and you can run a 30-second ad to distort someone's record.
Marco has said, until we deal with illegal immigration, until we secure borders, until we deal with employment verification and the issues surrounding that, until we deal for our sanctuary cities, until the American people are satisfied that those issues had been addressed, we're not going to have comprehensive immigration reform. I think he's laid it out very clearly, he is not for amnesty and so, I think he's handled it very well.
BERMAN: Eight years ago you were here supporting Mike Huckabee, the governor of Arkansas. This time around things aren't going as well for him. What do you think the next week holds for the governor?
HUTCHINSON: Well, first of all, my support of Rubio is nothing against Mike Huckabee. It is eight years later. The issues have changed. The challenges of our nation, the stakes are high, and I look at the field and I'm an enthusiastic supporter of Marco Rubio. But I wish Governor Huckabee the best and I don't want to say what will happen heretofore, but I regard him as a friend.
[16:35:00]BERMAN: You know, Marco Rubio supported Mike Huckabee eight years ago as well. Senator Tim Hutchinson, it's great to have you with us. Thank you for being here.
HUTCHINSON: Don, thank you very much. Good to see you.
BERMAN: All right. CNN of course is the place to be for complete coverage of the Iowa caucuses. We are live today and we will be live tomorrow. We'll be live tomorrow night as the first votes are cast in the 2016 presidential race. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BERMAN: All right, John Berman here in Iowa. Just one day to go to the actual voting here in the Iowa caucuses, 7:00 p.m. central time, Monday night. CNN will be covering every last minute of it. We've been looking at the polls, showing a very tight race on both sides. Want to talk more about this, specifically the Republican side.
I'm joined by CNN political commentator, a Jeb Bush supporter, Ana Navarro. CNN Senior political analyst and editorial director for the National Journal, Ron Brownstein. See Ana, I want to start with you -- the Republican side. Everyone talking about the Des Moines register, Bloomberg poll, with Donald Trump out in front.
If I had said to you back when Jeb Bush announced, back when there was shock and awe, raising tens of millions dollars -- over a hundred million dollars for the super pack, and we're just sitting here the day before the Iowa caucuses and Donald Trump, a man who had been, you know, pro choice, supported Obama during the past, would be leading going into caucus night, what would you have told me?
[16:40:00] ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: To seek medical attention, to go see a therapist. I would have been very concerned about your sanity. Listen, there is no doubt that Donald Trump has surpassed all expectations. He's brought nothing but one surprise after another. I think most of us have been wrong about everything involving Donald Trump. I didn't think he was going to run.
I certainly didn't think he was going to lead. I thought that when he started insulting everybody and their brother, POWs, and people of Iowa, in their face, -- you know, saying that he didn't ask God for forgiveness and so on. Megyn Kelly was (ph) when it comes to conservative media, I thought that would be the end of him, but it hasn't been.
In fact, his numbers have gone up. They continue going up. So, I think he has been unpredictable, nothing but surprises and I expect nothing but surprises to continue.
BERMAN: Ron, you've written a great article in the National Herald that answers the question, sort of, why.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah, right. Look, I mean in the past, regardless of who wins, whether it's Cruz or Trump, one thing we're going to see tomorrow night in Iowa is that the Republican Party is fracturing along a different fault line than we have seen in the last few races. In the last several races, key divides have been between evangelicals and non-evangelicals, moderates and conservatives.
Both Mitt Romney and John McCain won the nomination with almost exactly the same formula. They each won about half of voters who are not evangelicals and about one-third who were evangelicals. Donald Trump is cutting the Republican Party across a different fault line. His vote doesn't differ between evangelicals and non-evangelicals. It doesn't differ much between moderates and conservatives, its college and non-college.
It's those blue collar, working class Republicans who are powering his support and that is giving him the ability, John, to compete in a broad range of states and put him within range of what we talked about today, possibly winning Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina which no one has done in a contested primary. NAVARRO: Nobody knows (ph) it's like Romney gets giddy everytime when
he starts talking. So, I have a question for you. I have seen time and time again -- I'm sorry, right.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
NAVARRO: Who is in charge here?
(CROSSTALK)
NAVARRO: I have seen time and time again, people who might be at a Donald Trump rally say Bernie Sanders is my second choice or people at a Bernie Sanders rally say Donald Trump is my second choice. What the hell is going on?
BROWNSTEIN: Look, I think that is primarily what you're seeing, the kind of working class (disaffection. Without a doubt, if you look at polling the most disaffected element of American society today are white working class voters who feel both economically marginalized and culturally eclipsed in many ways. And I think both Sanders and Trump are speaking to their sense of the political system has not worked for them.
BERMAN: And it's okay if I ask.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
(LAUGHTER)
BERMAN: Actually, no, since you're trying out my job, I'm going to have you try as a job of a democratic analyst right now because I did heard from Karen Finney, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign a short time ago. We talked to Joel Benis and Kate Baldwin on Friday who said that Bernie Sanders is running one of the most negative campaigns he has ever seen in a primary. I don't think I agree with that but I want to make sure I have an outside voice here saying when you look at the Democratic race and you look at the campaigns, are either one of them are either particularly negative?
NAVARRO: I don't think so. Listen, particularly when you see what is going on in our side. There is a circular firing squad going on in the Republican side. It has gotten very nasty, very personal, very intense. I turn on TV in Iowa today, watched for 30 minutes and I was scared after 30 minutes. I thought the world was coming to an end because of the political ads I saw.
There is no comparison between what's going on between Sanders and Clinton and what is going on in the Republican side. That is patty cake and they better get used to it because it is only going to get tougher in the general.
BERMAN: The Clinton campaign -- what the Clinton campaign says it's two things. Number one, Bernie Sanders, they say went on the attack when he said that Planned Parenthood and the human rights campaign, that they were establishment.
NAVARRO: That's malarkey.
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: Bernie Sanders this morning it did seem like a change of tone. You know, he said the -- the e-mails, Hillary Clinton's e-mails, you know, are a serious issue in the campaign. The Clinton campaign says that was personal somehow.
BROWNSTEIN: I don't know. Look, I mean you know, I agree with Ana. I mean there's no comparison between what we're seeing on the two sides. But certainly as Sanders becomes a more competitive candidate, he is likely to draw sharper distinctions with the front-runner. I mean, he now sees a path or he can make this a serious race in a way that didn't seem possible even two months ago and I think you are going to see it get tougher on the Democratic side.
But what you're really seeing on the Republican side above all, as we talked about before, is you have the candidates focusing more or trying to damage each other and emerge as the principle alternative to Trump rather than focusing their fire on Trump himself and that is a risky strategy because if he does win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, being the alternative to that may not be worth it.
NAVARRO: The truth is that the Hillary Clinton campaign took Bernie Sanders for granted for many months. They are probably regretting it now and trying to scramble and figure out how they play the victimization tactic. I don't think it works this late on
[16:45:00]BERMAN: We will see. They have an organization here on the ground. We'll see if they can get other votes by tomorrow. Ann Navarro, Ron Brown, seeing great discussion. Thanks so much, guys. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BERMAN: All right, John Berman in Des Moines. This is our special live coverage of Iowa caucuses now. We are one day away in the polls. Man, they are close. Just a three-point difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders that is well within the margin of error. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both out on the stump today. That of course, Hillary Clinton and council bluffs -- these are live pictures.
You saw Bernie Sanders in Waterloo a short time ago -- took some of that event. They just announced they raised $20 million in the month of January alone. That's a lot of money. We are joined here in Des Moines right now by the campaign manager for Bernie Sanders, Jeff Weaver. Jeff, thanks so much for being out with us here.
JEFF WEAVER, BERNIE SANDERS CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Hey John, happy to be here. Happy to be here.
BERMAN: We spoke to Karen Finney, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign a short time ago. I was asking her about comments that Senator Sanders made this morning. He was asked about the Clinton e- mail controversy as it were, and the answer to me sounded different than answers he's given in the past.
He did not say as he said in the debate, America is sick and tired of hearing about these damn e-mails. What he said this morning was the e- mails are a serious issue.
WEAVER: Right. Well, if you listen to what he said Chris Cuomo after the first Democratic debate, he said the same thing. It is a serious issue and there is a process underway to deal with those issues. It doesn't need to dominate the news day in and day out when there are so many other big problems facing the American people.
[16:50:00]BERMAN: But does it raise questions and it sounded like what Senator Sanders was saying today for the first time in midline that raises questions about Hillary Clinton.
WEAVER: I think what he said is entirely consistent with what he said before on this particular issue.
BERMAN: So, you do not think it was in any way him questioning Hillary Clinton, him changing the tone about the e-mails?
WEAVER: Absolutely not. A hundred percent no. A hundred percent not.
BERMAN: All right. So, when Karen Finney said that she felt that it was a personal attack, you think that's unfair?
WEAVER: I absolutely think -- absolutely, 100 percent unfair. You know look, they are trying to make hay out of something that's not hay and that's fine. You know, that's politics. But the truth of the matter is, he's been very consistent on this issue from the get-go. There is one issue I did want to raise with you and that is the issue of debates because there's been a lot of back and forth within the candidates on the issue of debates.
BERMAN: Yes.
WEAVER: And one of the issues here, you know, they wanted to have a debate in February which you know, is being organized. We said we like to have three more debates. And we'd like to have more host debates in March in Michigan. The Clinton said good luck to it in Flint, Michigan. We said, that's great too, but now they want to do it after the Michigan primary is over.
We'd like to do it before the Michigan primary happens, but on the 6th, Sunday night would be a great night, so that the people in Michigan can hear what the campaigns have to say before they actually vote. I think, you know, CNN ought to come out and just say, "hey, we're going to do it." Just like MSNBC did in New Hampshire.
BERMAN: I do not speak on behalf of CNN. I am sure we would like to host as many debates as we humanly possible can you know, we have announced yesterday there's town meeting in New Hampshire on Wednesday night. Anderson Cooper will be hosting a town meeting where we will hear from each of the candidates. Those are good solid discussion.
Regardless of when and where each exact debate is, there does seem to be agreement now between the campaigns that there will be more debates. Several more.
WEAVER: Well look, there is agreement in principle to have one in New Hampshire next week. But only if the three after that are locked down in terms of day that they're going to occur and the locations are going to occur. We got one in Michigan prior to the Michigan primary. We got one in New York prior to the New York in Brooklyn -- prior to New York primary.
And we got one in California -- seems like the California one is not controversial. But other two seem to have difficulty being locked down. You know, when there was some disconnect about the one in New Hampshire, MSNBC just went forward. I think CNN should do the same thing. Just announce they want to do it. We'll go.
BERMAN: Just an employee, man. I guess ...
WEAVER: You got it.
BERMAN: I'm just here doing what I'm told.
WEAVER: Well, if you guys (ph) but I think you should do it.
BERMAN: As far as (ph) can do, you want as many debates as possible. We're thrilled you're coming to our town hall next week.
WEAVER: Oh, we love it. We love the town halls.
BERMAN: Let me ask you a walking question.
WEAVER: Sure.
BERMAN: The issue of clumping, right, in the Iowa caucuses right now.
WEAVER: Sure, sure, sure.
BERMAN: You have an issue where you have a lot of support in university towns, right.
WEAVER: Okay, that's true, yes.
BERMAN: But you need these voters to get perhaps these kids to get back to their homes to caucus else their votes may not count for as much because essentially, you know, the delegates will be a portion in a way that you won't get the best bang for your buck.
WEAVER: Right. And that's, look, that is an issue but it's a very minor issue. And the truth of the matter is that Senator Sanders has support all across the state. Does he have support in college towns? Absolutely. Is he wildly popular with young people? Absolutely. But working class people, people of all ages, he has broad-based support in Iowa and he's going to do very, very well tomorrow.
BERMAN: All right, just to be clear on the debate. So, you were saying you will do a debate in Flint, Michigan.
WEAVER: On March 6th, Sunday night. Let's do it. BERMAN: But it has to be before the Michigan primary.
WEAVER: Well it doesn't make -- it's ludicrous to have a debate in Michigan when the people of Michigan have already voted. Why would we want to deprive the people of Michigan the opportunity to see the candidates before the primary?
BERMAN: (ph) just to be clear --
WEAVER: Oh, we've already said yes to Flint. We said that days ago.
BERMAND: All right, there you go.
WEAVER: March 6th, see you there.
BERMAN: You'll be there. Jeff Weaver, thank you so much for being with us. Appreciate it.
WEAVER: You got it. Happy to be here.
BERMAN: All right, thanks. And don't forget, as we just said, there is a Democratic Town Hall Wednesday night. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton - they have agreed to that -- that much they agree to. Anderson Cooper will be moderating. They agreed to that, too. Martin O'Malley is coming. There is agreement, broad agreement across the board. Wednesday night on CNN. We'll have much more coming up from Iowa in just a moment.
[16:55:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: As the people in Iowa get ready of the caucus tomorrow, they could run into a wild card candidate, something called the weather. The winter weather problem is heading that way. Our meteorologist, Tom Sater is live in the CNN Weather Center to give us more details and what could be expected. Tom, what's in the forecast?
TOM SATER, AMS METEOROLOGIST: This is going to be interesting one to watch, Martin, no doubt. We know we have a storm coming and it's coming out of the inner mountain west. The red line is the track which will take it right up to the Great Lakes. So, that means deteriorating weather conditions for the state of Iowa. Already winter storm warnings, good snow for Denver and red already, some blizzard warnings for Kansas and Nebraska. But in the yellow here, a blizzard watch for over half the state and a winter storm watch including Des Moines.
What we believe here and timing is till off, a couple different models want to slow it down or kick it up a little quicker. This model puts a good swath across the central and western counties at 11:00 p.m. Now, this means it could start, we believe, anywhere between maybe 6:00 and 10:00 and then conditions really go downhill with zero visibility and we know the Iowa roads. We are talking about whiteout conditions and heavy amounts of snow fall, 8 to 12 inches. Now, there will be some more in areas of pink, maybe 14 to 15. But we really think the bulk of this weather condition, as going downhill, will really start after the midnight hour, but a couple of things to look at. Between 6:00 and 10:00 in our western precincts, western counties, if
we start to see a couple of inches fall with deteriorating conditions, with the winds picking up, it could be enough for some of the older caucus goers or elderly caucus goers to say, 'hey, I'm not sure what I'm going to see when I leave the caucus. So, we could have a couple of inches again by midnight. But if you look at the rest of the state and on the flip side of this Martin, for the young voters, most of the state, I think schools are going to be closed on Tuesday.
Your university students may want to make this one crazy party because they know they may not have classes on Tuesday. One exception is the southeastern part of the state where we think it will be mainly rain from Davenport southward. So, again that may be the only airport open. So, for the thousands of journalists from around the U.S. and the world and of course the campaign management teams getting out of here, they may have to go to the quiet cities. Des Moines, we're expecting about nine inches, Martin. So, again we think the timing is going to hold off, but we're watching those western counties very closely for a 6:00 to 10:00 snow fall to begin.
[17:00:00]SAVIDGE: As if we needed another thing to make for a nail- biter. Tom Sater at the Weather Center. Thank you very much. And that's it for CNN. Thanks for watching. Poppy Harlow has much more of our special coverage of the Iowa caucus starting right now.
