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Race for the White House: Candidates Make Final Sprint Before Iowa Voting; Trump and Clinton Lead Polls Before Iowa Caucus; Ted Cruz Courts Vital Iowa Evangelical Vote; Is Voter Turnout a Problem for Hillary Clinton?. Aired 6-7p ET
Aired January 31, 2016 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:01:35] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Top of the hour. I'm Poppy Harlow. It is 7:00 -- 6:00 here in the evening in New York. It is 5:00 p.m. in Des Moines, Iowa. That's where all eyes are right now.
It is a sprint to the finish in Iowa, one day ahead of the first actual votes of the 2016 presidential race. Candidates on both sides hammering out exhausting schedules with events all over the state. Five of them speaking live this hour alone -- Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Bernie Sanders.
And an important note regarding the Democrats, we have just learned that two days after the caucuses on Monday night, they will make their closing argument in New Hampshire. They'll speak directly to New Hampshire voters, answer their questions in a live primetime town hall event happening only here on CNN. That is Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Also just in, CNN has a brand new poll taking the temperature of voters in New Hampshire. My friend Brooke Baldwin in Des Moines has all of that -- Brooke.
BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: We got hot off the presses in a very chilly Des Moines tonight. Poppy, thank you so much.
This is so, so crucial. Listen, Iowa is the story and we're getting the result of this CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll.
So, let me first bring in CNN's chief political correspondent Dana Bash, and also, CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston.
But, first, Dana to you. I mean, we've just been going over the numbers quickly. But let's start on the Republican side -- Trump. Trump, Trump, Trump.
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Trump and everybody else is looking at him so far away they need binoculars. I mean, it is just that big.
Let's just take a look at the numbers to tell our viewers what we're talking about. Trump, 30 percent. Then go all the way down to 12 percent, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, 11 percent, Kasich, 9, Christie, 8, Bush 6.
But let's just focus in on number two and number three there, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. All of what we are seeing here in Iowa, Ted Cruz going after Marco Rubio in a pretty aggressive way, especially on TV with his TV ads. Taking those numbers -- BALDWIN: Anti-Trump ads and lumping them all --
BASH: Those numbers, that's the illustration. That tells us why he's doing that.
First and foremost, obviously, just to make sure he doesn't creep up on -- Rubio doesn't creep up on Ted Cruz here in Iowa. But it's about the next move in this game of political chess, because Ted Cruz is, you know, kind of vying for second place in New Hampshire. If Marco Rubio has what George H.W. Bush used to call the big mo, coming out of Iowa and doing quite well that, could propel him up in a big way and could -- do two things to hurt Ted Cruz.
Number one, push him down. But also, push all the other people in the so-called establishment lane out of the way and it would make people consolidate around Marco Rubio, which is bad for Ted Cruz.
BALDWIN: What about the Democrats?
BASH: The Democrats, also kind of not even close when it comes to the contest in these poll numbers. Bernie Sanders, take a look, 57 percent. Clinton is way far behind, 34 percent. Don't forget, Martin O'Malley, he is 1 percent.
But these numbers are kind of what we have been seeing historically, at least the past couple of weeks and months. Bernie Sanders is practically a home state senator. He's from the neighboring state of Vermont. Hillary Clinton has been trying to kind of do better there.
[18:05:01] But the expectation, genuine expectation in the Clinton campaign has been for some time, she's going to lose in New Hampshire, which is why they're so working hard in Iowa. And the next big stop, North Carolina.
BALDWIN: So, that's the numbers. That's your interpretation of all of this.
You, sir, what surprises you the most of all of this?
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: I mean, listen, the fact that Bernie Sanders is still so far ahead in New Hampshire right now, which goes to show you what's going to happen here in the next 24 hours is going to help define the race for the next week. And understand this, we're playing day by day right now. We're not playing a long game, even though they're focusing long game.
To the point, up in New Hampshire next week, there's going to be this town hall that will just be two days after Iowa. We're going to see Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley and Hillary Clinton on stage taking questions from New Hampshire voters. Now, New Hampshire has a tradition of long town hall meetings and it can get pretty combative sometimes. I mean, these are New Englanders, hearty New Englanders, who want real answers.
Now, we saw that just this past week here in Iowa. CNN did the same type of town hall with Chris Cuomo. He did a masterful job moving it around. I think everybody walked away pretty happy with it, even though there were tough questions.
That now going to our own Anderson Cooper who just did a town hall on guns, a very explosive issue, did a masterful job with President Obama.
So, a couple of days, we'll be on to New Hampshire and to the town hall.
BALDWIN: You know a thing or two about those tough questions from New Englanders. Is that right? Am I hearing correct?
(LAUGHTER)
BALDWIN: Mark Preston, thank you so much.
We really need to marinate through a lot of this. Let me just bring in my panel here. I have reaction to this poll also from our political dynamic duo, husband and wife, my favorite -- Republican strategist Margaret Hoover, and editor in chief of "The Daily Beast", John Avlon.
So, let's just focus on the Republican side. I mean, Dana outlined it so superbly, because it's essentially Trump and the rest are bunched in. She highlighted the number two and number three spot, the fact that Cruz and Rubio are so, so tight, just 1 percentage point away.
The big moment is everything out of Iowa.
MARGARET HOOVER, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Absolutely, it is. But you're going into a different state that is entirely different from Iowa in terms of its primary voter makeup. Seven in 10, eight in 10 Iowa GOP caucus-goers self-identify as conservative. When you got to New Hampshire, only half of them self-identify as conservative. So, it's a state where the table is set probably better for some of the other ones who are bunched up in the middle, the Rubio, the Christie, the Kasich.
Now, coming out of Iowa, if it happens that Rubio is able to close the gap with Cruz, he'll have the big mo. That could help him beat Cruz. Remember, Rubio's strategy has always been three, two, one -- third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina.
Who knows whether that's going to happen. But here is a scenario whereby that may come to pass.
JOHN AVLON, THE DAILY BEAST: Well, that's the narrative they've been pushing. But keep in mind that there's -- they're only one point in this poll separates the person in second, third, fourth, fifth. I mean, you know, Kasich and Christie are pretty competitive in this.
What's fascinating to me is that not only is Donald Trump doing well with self-identified moderates in New Hampshire, but that so many of that center-right lane still hasn't made up their mind.
HOOVER: Yes.
AVLON: What's also jumped out in this process is Ted Cruz does the worst among self-identify centrist Republicans. Only 2 percent current support. So, there's an enormous amount of room for the other folks to grow. Cruz probably has a ceiling when it comes to that constituency. And it's all about the fight for the center right.
BALDWIN: What about Democrats, the fact that you see these numbers and you see Bernie Sanders and this is his wheelhouse, geographically speaking -- Sanders at 57 percent and Clinton at 34. There is the big, let's play the if game, because it is neck and neck in Iowa. There is a possibility that Sanders wins Iowa.
AVLON: Absolutely.
BALDWIN: He goes into New Hampshire, wins New Hampshire.
AVLON: That's why the fact that it's so tight between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Iowa is so impactful. You're talking about possibly a difference of 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 votes at the caucus tomorrow. But if Bernie Sanders pulls it out. That's a win here and overwhelmingly likely of winning in New Hampshire, that's Hillary Clinton, the prohibitive inevitable front-runner losing the first two, that's a disaster scenario. If they split them, it's a much better situation.
HOOVER: But we're playing day by day here. Anything can happen. If there's a Democratic debate that CNN is hosting in the middle of next week and another nine days until that happens. So, anything can change. The tide can change the ebb and flow.
If Sanders were to win Iowa, Hillary still can make a good showing in New Hampshire. This does not condemn --
AVLON: In Brooklyn.
HOOVER: This does not condemn her chances by any means, especially in the south.
BALDWIN: Margaret and John, thank you so much. We've just been mentioning and let me remind you that CNN is, of course, the place for complete coverage of the Iowa caucus. We will be live all day tomorrow as the first votes of the 2016 presidential race are cast.
Stay with CNN. Again, that town hall as we mentioned, New Hampshire, that's Wednesday night. But here in Iowa, our special coverage, it is just getting started this hour. Do not go anywhere.
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[18:13:09] HARLOW: We are 24 hours away from votes being cast and the first in the nation Iowa caucuses.
On the Democratic side, the final polls before the caucuses show Bernie Sanders just barely trailing, but basically in a statistical dead heat with Hillary Clinton. "The Des Moines Register"/Bloomberg poll considered a gold standard gives a slight edge to Clinton. Given the margin of error, though, we're not talking about much. The CNN poll of polls gives a slight edge to Clinton as well.
Take a look at this, show. This is a recent Bloomberg/"Des Moines Register" poll, it found 43 percent of all likely Democratic caucus- goers in Iowa describe themselves as socialists. Could this help Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist?
Symone Sanders is joining from Des Moines.
Thank you for being with me. She is -- you are the national press secretary for the Sanders campaign. And I want our viewers to listen to what your candidate said yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will win the caucus on Monday night if there is a large voter turnout. We will lose the caucus on Monday night if there is a low voter turnout.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: If you cannot get the young votes out there, the young votes that you need tomorrow night, will Bernie Sanders lose Iowa?
SYMONE SANDERS, NATIONAL PRESS SECRETARY, BERNIE SANDERS 2016: Well, Poppy, as the senator said, if voter turnout is high, we'll win. We believe. And if voter turnout is low, it might not work out so well for us.
I don't think it's just young voters. There are lots of unlikely, what folks are calling unlikely caucus-goers who are now going to be caucusing for the first time tomorrow. I've been in our Des Moines office all week, and I have seen these folks firsthand myself coming in. People who are saying, I've never caucused before but I believe in what Bernie Sanders is saying and I'm excited to caucus for him on Monday.
So, it's a mixture of first time caucus-goers, young people. Yes, if those people come out, we think we're going to do pretty well on Monday.
HARLOW: All right. So, let's talk about Hillary Clinton's e-mails. It's certainly back in the headlines, that controversy.
[18:15:04] Bernie Sanders brought the crowd to its feet, Symone, in October when he defended her and he's sick of talking about them. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BERNIE SANDERS: Let me say something that may not be great politics. But I think the secretary is right. And that is that the American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn e-mails. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. Me too, me
too.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: All right. But this morning, Symone, he was much less dismissive of the e-mails. Here's what he told Jake.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BERNIE SANDERS: I think this is a very serious issue. I think there is a legal process right now taking place and what I have said -- you know, I get criticized. Bernie, why don't you attack Hillary Clinton? There is a legal process taking place. I do not want to politicize that issue.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: On the eve of this race in Iowa that is so tight, he is no longer dismissing them. What's your strategy here?
SANDERS: Well, Poppy, the senator hasn't said anything different than what he said before on that.
HARLOW: It is different. We hadn't heard what he said to Jake before calling it a serious legal issue. He didn't say that on the debate.
SANDERS: Oh, definitely. But he also noted previously at that same debate off stage at his first interview right after the debate was over, he noted that this was a serious -- he noted that it was serious but there is a legal process and that needs to be carried out. But he wants to focus on the issues and he's going to let the legal process play out.
I don't think folks caught that. And he says, again, in subsequent e- mails and folks wondered if it was a pivot. No pivot. This is what he has been saying. The senator, he's never dismissed it as that it was not serious. That it wasn't something that --
HARLOW: That's exactly, Simone, a lot of people would read what he did on stage. I'm wondering if your camp sees this issue. Now, you have the State Department comes out Friday, doesn't release those 22 e-mails, calling them, you know, classified. Does your camp see this now as that opening, that window that gets you over the hump here in Iowa?
SANDERS: What we see this as a legal issue that there's a process for. That will be carried out via the legal process.
We don't need Secretary Clinton's e-mails to carry us over the hump. The momentum that we have, our excellent ground game is what's going to carry us over the hump here. So, again, there is a process for those e-mails.
The senator noted that he wants to focus on the issue. He stated. As you just heard him, he's not going to politicize the issue. Politicizing would be using the emails to get over the hump.
We don't need those damn e-mails because we are actively meeting people where they are. We had 150 people, Poppy, just in our Des Moines, Iowa, office at 3:00 p.m. today that went out to caucus. They were rallied by Commissioner Chuy Garcia, Congressman Grijalva, Jim Dean of Democracy for America. And they went out.
We have nurses. We have folks that have come from as far as France, Panama, California, Louisiana, Milwaukee, just to come out here to Des Moines, Iowa, and all across the state of Iowa, of our 27 offices to ask people to GOTC, as we're calling it. Get out to caucus.
So, we're not worried about the e-mails. What we're worried about them knowing where the caucus locations are and which precinct they're going to so they can caucus for Bernie Sanders on Monday.
HARLOW: All right. Symone Sanders, appreciate it. I wish we had a lot more time. But you know how it goes in television, a lot to get to tonight. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
You do not want to miss the candidates on Wednesday night making their final pitch, closing arguments, to voters in New Hampshire, the next key state. There will be a primetime live town hall only right here on CNN, Wednesday night from New Hampshire, hosted by Anderson Cooper at 8:00 p.m.
Coming up, an honest look at the candidates straight from the mouths of Iowa voters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't want Trump.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't like Trump because I don't think he has any experience. He's too vocal and I don't like his morals.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, I'm going to go to the caucus and I'm going to vote for Trump because our country is in (EXPLETIVE BLEEP), plain and simple.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: There you have it. What Trump supporters have to say about Ted Cruz and vice versa? Don't miss it. Stay with us.
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[18:23:06] BALDWIN: And we're back live in Des Moines, Iowa. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for being with me here on this Sunday, where in a matter of hours, voters here will make their -- head to caucus to make a choice for president, the top polling Republican candidates, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
But what do each candidate's supporters actually truly think of one another?
CNN's Chris Moody asked Iowa supporters about Trump and Cruz supporters about Donald Trump. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RICKI EIBS TUTTLE, TRUMP SUPPORTER: Well, I'm going to go to the caucus and I'm going to vote for Trump because our country is in (EXPLETIVE BLEEP), plain and simple.
CHRIS MOODY, CNN SENIOR DIGITAL CORRESPONDENT: With just a couple of days left until the caucuses, the polls are showing Trump and Cruz at the very top. No one is really coming close. So, it looks like it's going to come down to one of those two. So, we wanted to talk to supporters of both Trump and Cruz and find out why they're choosing one or the other.
Why Trump over Cruz if you had to choose at the caucus?
STEVE BOLMAN, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I don't like Cruz at all. I just don't like him. He's looks sneaky to me. I don't know. I just don't like him.
TUTTLE: I just don't think Cruz has got enough backbone to be forceful to say, hey, this is the way it's going to have to be and this is going to be what we got to do.
JANEL LAGESCHULTY, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I think people are sick to death of the same old same old.
SUE HARRINGTON, TRUMP SUPPORTER: Exactly. And every time he says something outspoken, oh, no, this is going to do it. He rises even higher in the polls.
KEVIN LAGESCHULTY, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I think Senator Cruz, you know, talks fairly plain also. I think his indifference to the renewable fuel standards and to the ethanol, which in the state of Iowa is a huge part of our economy, it's going to be a little bit of a tough sell for him here.
REP. STEVE KING (R), IOWA: Future of America could very well be decided Monday night in Iowa. It's either Donald Trump or it's Ted Cruz. Whatever Donald brings to this, there's one thing he doesn't bring, and that's humility.
[18:25:03] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Senator Ted Cruz.
(APPLAUSE)
KAREN HENDERSON, CRUZ SUPPORTER: I don't want Trump. I don't like Trump because I don't think he has any experience. He's too vocal and I don't like his morals.
MOODY: Donald Trump, are you considering caucusing for him.
JOHN GOODE, CRUZ SUPPORTER: Well, I don't know. He's kind of a wild cannon, you know?
DAVE TYREE, CRUZ SUPPORTER: Nobody in Iowa really wants Donald Trump for president. But number two, everybody in Iowa wants someone exactly like Donald Trump for president.
MOODY: Why don't they want Donald Trump for president?
TYREE: Because of his ego.
TRIUMPH THE INSULT COMEDY DOG, UNDECIDED: I haven't made up my mind yet. I need to hear before I can make up my mind.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's on the national news.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BALDWIN: Ladies and gentlemen, he talks to puppets. He talks to people. He is Chris moody.
I don't know how you got these sound bites out of people. But you're phenomenal at it. To hear people say, you know, looks sneaky, not enough backbone, to me, it seems like a personality issue and less on policy with some of these folks. Am I wrong?
MOODY: If you look at the campaigns, they've been running on the same issues, constitutional issues, conservative ones.
BALDWIN: Yes.
MOODY: A lot of it comes down to style. Donald Trump rubs some people the wrong way as we saw in video clips. They find him as egotistical and things like that. And that doesn't necessarily play so well here in Iowa. Although we're seeing it plays well enough for him to be in first place.
With Ted Cruz, they have -- his supporters have seen him in the Senate, fighting for them. He's got a record. So they like him about that.
But on the other side, they don't think Ted Cruz will be as tough as Donald Trump might be. So, it goes back and forth.
BALDWIN: Four out of five Iowans consider themselves Christians. It's Sunday. This is, you know, when everyone is out and about at church. We know that Donald Trump talked about going to church this morning here in the Hawkeye State. I'm curious, because it's the all- important evangelical vote. I sound like a broken record because I'm bringing it up so much. But it's so, so important come tomorrow night.
What are those folks telling you? You've been crisscrossing the state.
MOODY: First thing about evangelicals is they do participate in the process.
BALDWIN: They do.
MOODY: They don't only go and caucus and vote. They march on -- knock on doors, they're out there for you making phone calls. They're very active.
Donald Trump is probably the least likely evangelical history -- evangelical hero in the history of politics, yet he's doing so well. I think the reason for that is because for years, if you look at electoral politics in the past, they have wanted someone who is like them or one of them.
You saw Rick Santorum, although he's Catholic, not evangelical.
BALDWIN: Right.
MOODY: But they felt a kinship with him in 2012.
BALDWIN: Yes.
MOODY: Mike Huckabee in 2008.
Donald Trump, they're kind of changing their strategy and saying, we don't necessarily want someone who's one of us, but we want someone who's going to stand up and protect us. And we see that in Donald Trump.
BALDWIN: They see his strengths.
MOODY: They do.
BALDWIN: They see his strengths. That's what I've heard as well.
Chris Moody, thank you very much for sharing.
And as we're talking Trump and Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, listen, let's listen to Jeb Bush here. Here he is speaking in Clinton, Iowa. Let's eavesdrop.
JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In a free society, people interacting amongst themselves in pursuit of their own dreams, maybe it's their profit, maybe it's their wanting to do good, whatever it is, that all of them together will create more prosperity and more dynamism than any government program ever created. We have to trust that works because it has.
And that's why I've laid out the most detailed plans to do that. And I believe we can grow at 4 percent per year. We'd have rising income and people would be more optimistic about the future.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:31:32] BALDWIN: All right. Just past the bottom of the hour, you're watching CNN's special live coverage here ahead of the all- important Iowa caucuses. We've thrown a four-box up on your screen. As you can see these candidates, candidates' husbands, are crisscrossing the state, making that final pitch, that closing argument, as to why he or she should eventually clinch the nomination.
Heading into the Iowa caucuses this weekend's new poll definitely raises some eyebrows. This is the all-important "Des Moines Register"/Bloomberg Politics poll. When you look at these numbers, Trump is on top of Cruz by five points. This is the first time Trump has actually held a lead in this poll. On the flipside, look at the Democrats. And you will see Hillary Clinton is up three points over Bernie Sanders in a race that is just quite simply too close to call.
Taking our CNN poll of polls into consideration, remember it is an average of these five most recent Iowa polls. It shows roughly the same trends with the Democrats, but it does show Donald Trump up by six points here.
Joining me back here in Des Moines, CNN political analyst John Avlon and CNN political commentator Margaret Hoover.
Wonderful to have you all back with me.
MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Thanks for having us.
BALDWIN: Let's just begin with, I think, one of the surprising storylines has been when you look at the note on how refreshing these millennials, these kids, find Bernie Sanders. I mean he has been around for decades and decades in Congress as we know.
JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.
BALDWIN: And there is something, there is this certain magic because I talked to them last night, this 4,000, you know, person event and I'm just sort of baffled by what it is.
AVLON: It's two things. First of all, I think it's authenticity. That is the thing that is rarest among political candidates, and Bernie Sanders has it whether you believe him or not.
BALDWIN: That's what they're saying. They think he's telling them the truth.
AVLON: There's some flow through with Trump and Bernie in that regard, although they're on opposite ends of the spectrum in general --
BALDWIN: What do you mean?
AVLON: Well, I -- whatever you think of Donald Trump, people think he says what he believes at that particular moment. You know, he's not speaking from talking points and neither is Bernie Sanders. The other thing that's significant is I think the millennial generation has been very much impacted by the impact of the great recession. And they're more receptive to an economically liberal argument than Americans have been in decades. And so that new-new left that Bernie Sanders was a part of in the late 1960s is now coming back among the activist class of the Democratic Party and Bernie is benefiting from it.
BALDWIN: That was number one they said. They believe he tells the truth. Number two was the fact that he's not part of some political powerful -- you know, some couple with tons and tons of money.
AVLON: The Brooklyn Sanders.
BALDWIN: Yes. Right. Exactly. And so that was part of the appeal, though how do they -- you know, one of the concerns, obviously, from this camp is getting them out to caucus. And not only that, the clustering worry, right, in these campuses and these universities.
HOOVER: Well, this is the main concern for the Sanders camp, rightfully so. You've got three major university hubs in Iowa. And so you'll have a lot of Bernie Sanders students coming out in those areas. But the main challenge is to get them to other areas in the state, other precincts in the state where they can caucus so that they can win delegates that will go on in order to represent --
BALDWIN: Would you explain that please for people at home trying to understand this process?
HOOVER: Well, the name of the game isn't raw votes on the Democratic side. It's in order to get enough delegates in order to go on to represent Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.
BALDWIN: Yes.
HOOVER: When this comes to -- it's not in Cleveland. That's for the Republicans. Philadelphia.
BALDWIN: Philadelphia.
HOOVER: Later in July. And so that's the key. So the point is, go to the university towns, then shift these students out to other precincts across the state so that they can win delegates in order to move on towards the nominating process.
BALDWIN: What does Hillary Clinton do to try to grab this youth vote away from him?
AVLON: Well, I think she can counter enthusiasm with organization. And I think she's been making a very strong closing argument about herself having decades of commitment to core issues the Democrats care about.
BALDWIN: Experience.
[18:35:09] AVLON: I think Bill Clinton has been a very effective surrogate in terms of telling her story. And there's not the sense of entitlement or presumption. This is someone who has experience as secretary of state, a hard fought campaign eight years ago. And making the case also -- and this is the larger interesting question -- about the crusade -- the campaign becomes a crusade when it's about electing this first woman president. Interestingly, do millennial women, do they believe we're going to see our first woman president anyway?
(CROSSTALK)
HOOVER: Let me tell you --
BALDWIN: They think they will in their lifetime.
AVLON: So it doesn't have to be Hillary Clinton.
BALDWIN: I was fascinated by that. That's what they'll tell you at the Bernie Sanders rally.
AVLON: Yes. Yes. Right.
BALDWIN: Yes.
HOOVER: And let me tell you, eight years ago they did not vote for Hillary Clinton, they voted for Barack Obama. I mean, so the millennial generation does not have a history of coming out for the Clintons. And that's exactly right. Young women believe that they are not up against the same challenges that second wave feminists were up against and those are Hillary supporters.
BALDWIN: We have to go. There's a whole story to be said.
AVLON: There is.
BALDWIN: Come back on my show tomorrow because I want to talk so much more about these young women and older women who want a woman before they may not ever see a woman in their lifetime.
AVLON: That's right.
BALDWIN: A woman in their lifetime. John Avlon and Margaret Hoover, thank you so, so much.
If there is any doubt about Donald Trump's popularity, look no farther than Seabrook, New Hampshire. That is where -- this is fun. This is where the Clay Dragon tattoo is giving free tattoos of -- can you guess?
AVLON: No.
BALDWIN: By the ink. Yes, the Donald himself.
AVLON: No.
BALDWIN: Let me repeat that.
AVLON: No.
BALDWIN: Free tattoos of Donald Trump. Bob Holmes, who owns this tattoo parlor -- John Avlon, keep it together. I know it's hysterical. Said been inundated by request because when I think of somebody I want to have on my arm for the rest of my life, right, I think of a politician. When you care --
(CROSSTALK)
AVLON: There's no cure for a stupid person. BALDWIN: There you go. Listen, if you are in this --
(LAUGHTER)
BALDWIN: Laughing at you. Laughing at you, laughing at this. They're available for at least another month. FYI. And people from as far away as Florida have asked about these free Donald Trump tattoos. One customer says his friend thinks his Trump tattoo is, quote, "hilarious." Again, because when I think tattoos, I -- right. Right.
HOOVER: Donald Trump.
BALDWIN: OK. There you go. Listen, anything goes in this election apparently. Let me show you some live pictures here. We have Bill Clinton stumping for his wife. This is live pictures from Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Listen, everything -- we're going there. This is CNN. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:41:09] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. I want to show you some live pictures. Let's pull them up. Ted Cruz's wife, Heidi, speaking at a campaign event. Obviously they're pulling out all the stops ahead of the caucuses tomorrow night. That is in Davenport, Iowa, before they head to Des Moines, where there is a big event tonight in Des Moines for Ted Cruz in Iowa.
If you are a churchgoer, well, the candidates are clamoring for your vote right now. Ted Cruz holding an event as you saw in Davenport. They're going to head to Des Moines a little bit later tonight, trying to court that key evangelical vote.
CNN's Phil Mattingly joins us now where that event will take place in just a little bit, a little later tonight. Interestingly, obviously not crowded behind you now. It will be. And you know when you talk about the evangelical vote, this morning Ted Cruz, his daughters, his wife went to church, and the pastor at the church service that they attended this morning actually, Phil, preached against attack ads.
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. That's right, Poppy. Gave a little bit of a rundown about how Iowans don't necessarily appreciate the type of ads they've been seeing and frankly were upset by the tone and the assumption that Iowa ads, as the pastor said to paraphrase here a little bit, we're kind of being treated like they were stupid. Kind of an interesting way to start the day for Ted Cruz who has really been mired in some of the most brutal attacks both from his campaign against others like Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. And also, facing attacks, mostly from Donald Trump over the last couple of weeks, Poppy.
But you really underscore a key point here. It's the evangelical vote. And Ted Cruz today in his first event, even though things have gotten so crazy and frankly a little bit mean-spirited, had good things to say about his fellow candidates. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TED CRUZ (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One of the things that the pastor asked is pray for any who are your opponents and indeed I'm showing prayers all the candidates who are running, that God blessing and peace and love be upon them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTINGLY: Poppy, 24 hours from now, caucus-goers will start the process here in Iowa and for Ted Cruz, while he is praying for the other candidate in this race, he needs the evangelical vote to come out in a big way. He's seen it break a little bit away from him in the last 48 to 72 hours in polling. And that's a major concern for his campaign.
HARLOW: I'm interested, Phil, in why you think that is, right? We saw Donald Trump just a few days ago, Friday, hold the bible up that his mother gave him, talk a lot more about his faith. Do you think that is successfully pulling those votes away from Cruz. What is it?
MATTINGLY: No question. And Poppy, it's both anecdotal. I've heard it at rallies. Rallies for Donald Trump, also rallies for Ted Cruz where people are all of a sudden saying well, maybe Donald Trump is not so bad. One voter I talked to said, look, we're not totally sold on Donald Trump when it comes to religion, but we like the idea of his confidence. We like the idea that he's somebody that is trying.
Now here's the problem for Ted Cruz. In the latest "Des Moines Register" poll, while Donald Trump's unfavorability amongst evangelicals is higher, Ted Cruz has lost evangelical support by 12 percent over the last month.
HARLOW: Wow.
MATTINGLY: Those evangelical voters are breaking toward Donald Trump. Now if you talk to Cruz campaign folks, this wasn't something they expected to happen. That's his vote, that is the crux of his message when he's campaigning right now. And so what you'll see today, what you'll see tonight, behind me will be packed, believe it or not, Poppy. What you'll see tonight will be a big final push. Those are the people they need to break their way here over the last 24 hours if they want to have a chance to win or at least have a very strong second, Poppy.
HARLOW: Yes. No question about it. Then they head to New Hampshire with a very different electorate, a very different focus.
MATTINGLY: Right.
HARLOW: All right. Phil Mattingly, appreciate it. Have fun there tonight. Thank you.
Take a look at this. We've got live pictures for you of former President Bill Clinton stumping for his wife on one side of your screen. You've got Jeb Bush making a final push despite his low polling numbers in Iowa. All of this, the final 24 hours to go before those critical Iowa caucuses begin tomorrow night. Quick break. We'll be right back.
[18:45:02]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: All right. You're looking at live pictures of candidate Hillary Clinton speaking in Sioux City, Iowa. Tonight on the eve of the caucuses, she was just joined by her daughter, Chelsea, talking about the election. Trying to court those last-minute votes. Any of the undecided ahead of the caucuses tomorrow night.
This is the eve of the Iowa caucuses. Bernie Sanders right now pushing back at critics who claim that his winning the nomination could hurt Democratic chances of retaking the House. In fact he says that would only happen if his chief rival, Hillary Clinton, wins.
Here's what he said this morning on NBC.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think in fact Hillary Clinton will be the problem because I think our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy, that will result in a high voter turnout. Republicans win when voter turnout is low. Democrats win when voter turnout is high.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Joining me now, Kristina Schake. She is the deputy communications director for Hillary for America.
Thank you for being with us here on CNN. I want your reaction to Senator Sanders' comments responding to Chuck Todd and saying actually that's going to happen if Hillary Clinton wins.
KRISTINA SCHAKE, DEPUTY COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, HILLARY FOR AMERICA: You know we feel really strongly that Hillary is the best candidate to represent the Democratic Party in the election this year and to retain the White House for Democrats.
[18:50:07] You know, this is a really important election. The stakes are so high. A little less than a year from now a new president is going to walk into the Oval Office to replace President Obama. And the stakes are so high for Americans.
Are we going to have a president that's going to build on the progress that he has achieved for this country? Or are we going to let the Republicans rip it away? And we really believe that Hillary is the best candidate to make sure that we retain the White House and to really get the job done for America's families, as president of the United States.
HARLOW: All right. So I know Iowa is top of mind right now but just on that point that you said you believe your candidate who we see speaking live now on the screen in Sioux City is the one who can do that, the latest poll just out tonight, CNN-WMUR poll out of New Hampshire does not show that voters agree with you. It shows they disagree by a pretty wide margin. It has Sanders beating Clinton by 23 points in a state she won eight years ago. Your reaction to that?
SCHAKE: Well, Poppy, Iowa is first and we're on the eve of the Iowa caucus, and we feel great about the energy and enthusiasm out here for Hillary. You know, she had just overwhelmed --
HARLOW: Well, what about New Hampshire, it's only a week later. It's only a week later.
SCHAKE: Well, I have to say, Iowa is first, and we are focused on Iowa and you know, she is so grateful for this support she's received out here. You know, we have 4200 precinct captains trained and volunteers ready to get out there tomorrow. Just today we had 1600 volunteers out there knocking on doors. And for us, we just think it's incredible. By the end of the day tomorrow, by the time the caucus begins, we're going to have 125,000 doors knocked on in this state. All over this state.
So Iowa is first, she feels really good about going into this caucus. But I have to tell you it's going to be really close.
HARLOW: Yes.
SCHAKE: We know that, we knew that from the beginning. So we need our supporters to get out there tomorrow. The caucus starts at 7:00 p.m. We want our people in line by 6:30. We want them out there caucusing for Hillary Clinton.
HARLOW: So, Kristina, how should I read this? Because it sounds you're not addressing the New Hampshire numbers at all. You're focusing on tomorrow night in Iowa. I get that, but then you have to move on to New Hampshire, which is just next week. Are you seeing this as a "we're going right from Iowa to South Carolina" and the, quote-unquote, "firewall"?
SCHAKE: No, no.
HARLOW: Many in your camp argue she has there?
SCHAKE: No, certainly not, Poppy. You know, Iowa is first, but New Hampshire has always held a very special place in Hillary Clinton's heart. She came back from a deficit in 2008 to win there. She loves that state. She loves the primary. It's a first in the nation primary. She's ready to get in there and campaign her heart out there next week so, you know, Iowa is first, New Hampshire is always really hard when you have somebody running in that election who is from a neighboring state.
But she has a real connection to that state as her husband did before her. And so she's going to go right from Iowa to New Hampshire and work her heart out for that primary. HARLOW: I got to ask you and I want to listen in live to Hillary. I
want to ask you about the e-mails, right? Because State Department comes out Friday, says we're not releasing 22 of these e-mails, they contain, quote-unquote, "top-secret information." Donald Trump comes out, he tweets, quote, "Hillary Clinton is a major national security risk, not presidential material."
This e-mail -- emails are not what your camp wants to be talking about right now. How do you put this to bed for voters?
SCHAKE: Well, you know what I would say Poppy, is that the Republicans have spent a lot of time talking about e-mails, but it's certainly not what Iowa caucus-goers are talking to Hillary about. So fundamentally they were no new facts that came out with this. We really think this is an issue that she has addressed. She wants her e-mails to be public. She hopes that this is an interagency dispute. She hopes it gets solved and the e-mails are made public.
But truthfully what people here in Iowa are talking to her about are the issues that are affecting their families. And we really think that's what people are going to go out and caucus on tomorrow. Which of these candidates is going to build on President Obama's progress for this country? Who is going to lower costs for college, costs for prescription drugs? Protect Planned Parenthood? Who's the best candidate to do that? We believe strongly that's Hillary Clinton.
HARLOW: Kristina Schake, appreciate you joining me, thank you very much.
And before I get to break, let's all listen in to Hillary Clinton speaking live right now in Sioux City, Iowa.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Working folks, even poor people, more people were lifted out of poverty than at any time in recent history. Because you know, the best remedy for poverty is a good job. That gives people a good standard of living, gives them the opportunity to do better for themselves, and their kids. And we ended up with a balanced budget and a surplus.
But here's one of these inconvenient facts that the Republicans try to cover up -- our country is four times more likely to have a recession with a Republican in the White House. And boy, did we see that happen, didn't we? And I was in the Senate. I was speaking against, I was voting against, what I thought were the misguided policies of George W. Bush. They got their way.
[18:55:08] HARLOW: Hillary Clinton live in Sioux City, Iowa, for us tonight.
Coming up next, the candidate not really getting any attention right now may be the big factor in deciding this tight race in Iowa between Clinton and Sanders. "The Number" is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: Right now to tonight's "Number," it is 15. Fifteen percent to be exact. That is the amount of support a Democratic candidate needs to reach in each precinct in Iowa in the caucuses tomorrow night to be considered, quote-unquote, "viable."
The question right now in Iowa is, will Martin O'Malley, who is polling at 3 percent in the latest "Des Moines Register" poll, reach that 15 percent viability? If he fails to reach it his supporters have the option of realigning, meaning they could help tip the scales and ultimately decide who wins the Iowa caucuses on the Democratic side. Could they help Hillary Clinton? Could they help Bernie Sanders?
We will see, 15 percent, "The Number" tonight.
CNN all day extensive coverage tomorrow of the crucial first in the nation Iowa caucuses. Stay with us all day for that.
I'm Poppy Harlow in New York, my friend Brooke Baldwin in Des Moines. Thank you so much for being with us tonight. That doesn't for me. Our extensive political coverage ahead of the Iowa caucuses continues right here next live with Erin Burnett in Des Moines. Have a good one.
