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NEW DAY SUNDAY

The Final Push; California Fugitives Back Behind Bars. Aired 7- 7:30a ET

Aired January 31, 2016 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CHRISTI PAUL, CNN ANCHOR: And the next hour of your NEW DAY starts right now.

(MUSIC)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[07:00:10] DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't even think I have to campaign anymore. Why am I even wasting my time? I don't have to campaign. I can leave here right now. They're going to vote for me.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ted Cruz has been my friend and is. He's decided to run a very, you know, deceitful campaign at the end, some things he's saying. People see through that.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This campaign is fueled by a grassroots passion and energy that is nothing short of inspiring.

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R-NJ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're working hard to get out to meet as many Iowans as we can.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I see myself as an introvert. And introverts always win in the end, because they're grinders.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For those who are still making up your minds, I hope they will be able to persuade you to join us to make progress for our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL: It is always good to spend Sunday morning with you. I'm Christi Paul. And Victor Blackwell, my partner in crime, shall I say, live from Des Moines today, where it is an hour earlier.

Are you feeling it, Victor?

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: A little bit. I'm feeling it a little bit.

Good morning to you, Christi. PAUL: Good morning.

BLACKWELL: You know, we got -- we're counting the hours now instead of days into the beginning of the Iowa caucuses. Let's show the morning papers if you're just waking up. The big head line here, "Trump, Clinton lead close races."

Let's get straight to the numbers from the new poll. Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz, they lead the Republican field. They've got Trump at 28, Cruz at 23 percent, Marco Rubio, they're third place, eight behind Cruz there at 15 percent, Carson down at 10.

Now to the Democrats. Hillary Clinton holding a three-point lead over Senator Bernie Sanders, among likely caucus-goers, 45 percent for Clinton, 42 for Sanders. Martin O'Malley at 3, well within the margin of error.

CNN senior political reporter, Manu Raju joins me now.

I want to go inside the numbers. We're going to talk about the evangelical vote because of course here in Iowa that's so important. Forty-seven percent of the likely caucus-goers are either evangelical or born again Christian self described. If you bump that number to 60 percent, and that I'm sure is what the Cruz campaign is trying to do. The numbers go to 26-25 for Trump and Cruz respectively.

It really turns on the evangelical turnout.

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: It really does. That is why it is no surprise that Donald Trump was here yesterday with Jerry Falwell, Jr., of course, the president of Liberty University, the nation's largest Christian university, and why Ted Cruz has been aggressively targeting that part of the state. He was in Sioux City, Iowa, northeast part of the state, a very Christian conservative stronghold.

Really what this race is going to come down and it's a cliche we say it all the time is the turnout. I mean, the Cruz campaign is banking heavily on what it believes is probably the most aggressive turnout operation that they and any campaign has put here in Iowa. Thousands of volunteers on the ground and whether or not some of those voters -- those more religious minded conservative voters will come to the polls.

The question for me also is Ben Carson's 10 percent. Is that real? Is that support real? And how much of his operation really is effective? Because, look, at the end of the day, some of those may go towards Ted Cruz, maybe they go to Trump.

And those other social conservatives in the race, like the Huckabee at 2 percent, Santorum at 2 percent, too, do those voters actually show up, or they go to Cruz at the end? That could affect the outcome and could be a pretty close race.

BLACKWELL: Let's talk about Marco Rubio at 15 percent, because the narrative, at least from his campaign and for many outside of the campaign, is that after the debate, he gained some momentum and that momentum is carrying through this weekend. Is this a disappointing number for the campaign?

RAJU: It is probably right where they expected to be. At least they have been saying, we're going to be in third place. The way that I've been told and the Rubio folks that I speak with is that they would be very happy if they were in the high teens or in the low 20s. They would be very, very almost ecstatic if they got there.

If they are in the low teens, single digits, that's a big problem. They want to have some separation between them and the governors in the race so they can come out and say that, hey, I'm the alternative to Donald Trump, I'm the alternative to Ted Cruz.

But one thing to look out for is that they actually are the second -- they are the one candidate who is the second choice of all caucus- goers. You know, this means that voters who are still undecided who may not be, you know, leaning towards Donald Trump, uncertain about Donald Trump, they may give Marco Rubio a second look at the end of the day. So, we'll see if that actually happens.

BLACKWELL: And that extends into other states, and this becomes a war of attrition, that hopefully, he has enough resources and infrastructure to hold on.

I wonder, does this number, though, the 15 percent, does that encapsulate, that does really show the level of momentum that he's gained? Or could it be, you know, as we get to tomorrow night, we'll find out it will be higher?

[07:05:02] RAJU: Yes, that is a big question because, you know, on the ground you are seeing more people show up at their event, they are feeling more momentum after his debate performances, but they don't have the kind of operation that Ted Cruz does here on the ground. They are setting expectations reasonably low because they don't want us saying, hey, they should probably be in second place. Why aren't they in second place?

The story out of Iowa, they want to be able to say we have a good story to tell. We have momentum in this race. And in New Hampshire, that's where the real fight is going to be for the alternative to Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. There's almost like a four car pile up right behind Donald Trump right now in the polls. They want to come out of here much further ahead than the rest of the guys in the race.

BLACKWELL: Good analogy. Manu Raju, thank you so much.

All right. Let's talk the Democrats now. We got CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston, and CNN political commentator, former Hillary Clinton campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle.

Good to have both of you.

And, last night -- Patti, I want to start with you -- Bernie Sanders said he was rather unhappy with the tone of the Clinton campaign. Listen to Sanders. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: I am disappointed by the tone of her campaign. She is talking to the people of Iowa and saying Bernie Sanders wants to dismantle healthcare. But it is not true to suggest that she will be the stronger candidate in November.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: Fair point?

PATTI SOLIS DOYLE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Look, this is a very close race as we saw from "The Des Moines Register" poll yesterday. And in close races this far -- you know, the day before, things can get negative? Things -- candidates are going to point out their contrasts.

You know, Bernie Sanders has done the same thing with fees from Wall Street. But I think the difference for Bernie Sanders is he has run this politics not as usual campaign. His whole message is "I am not your normal politician. I'm going to run a positive campaign."

So, I think the attacks he does may affect him more than it will garner votes from Hillary Clinton.

BLACKWELL: Mark, his claim, though, is that the characterization of his plan, I guess, all politicians say this, is in inaccurate. And if that's the basis than what she is using to get voters or to get support is simply unfair.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: There is a little bit of truth and a little bit of the falsehood in both statements from the campaigns. Look, he has been negative in a sense that they have put ads out insinuating that Hillary Clinton was out using her name was basically bought and sold by Wall Street, right? Or that she was influenced by Wall Street, not necessarily bought and sold.

At the same time, though, he has run a fairly positive campaign, and I do think there was an overreaction, in my ways an overcorrection by the Clinton campaign last night when they came out and used their top two folks in the campaign to come out and drop and nuclear bomb and say Bernie Sanders is absolutely negative. We've seen anything as negative as this.

Well, unless, you know, open your eyes. Look what's going on in the Republican side. I mean, that's pretty darn negative over there. And if you want to go into the past campaigns where things got really nasty, things got really nasty.

Victor, you and I talk last hour about this. It's ugly right now. It's actually uglier behind the scenes. What's going on behind the scenes behind in these campaigns we're being told on what we're seeing is getting uglier. And I guarantee you, it will spill out on the streets of Manchester and Concord and Nashua and Portsmouth next week in New Hampshire. BLACKWELL: Patti, when we look inside the numbers from the poll,

there's a stark difference between support from women over 45 and under 45. With women 45 and older, Bernie Sanders is 23 points behind Hillary Clinton. But with women younger than 45, he is 15 points ahead, I believe 13 points or so. Why are we seeing this difference here?

DOYLE: Well, it is definitely a generational break. I mean, young women, they are more turned on by the revolution than they are electing the first woman president of the United States, because they think they are going to see a woman president in their lifetime. But going into the numbers, there are two numbers that I think have the Hillary campaign sleeping a little better at night. Not soundly but a little bit better. And that is her support is more solid than Bernie Sanders.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

DOYLE: Hers is at 83 percent. Those people are going to solidly caucus for her.

And the other one which I think is even more important is that 43 percent of first time caucus-goers. Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in '08 because of those first time caucus-goers. And he won by 60 percent of first time caucus-goers. This is just half of that. So, I think that makes Hillary Clinton a little bit better off this time around.

BLACKWELL: What about the people like you, people like you, 51 percent for Sanders, 37 percent for Hillary Clinton. How does she close that gap?

DOYLE: You know, I think this goes back to the trust issue, obviously. She has been in politics for 40 years, been attacked for 40 years.

[07:10:04] And some of that is rubbing off.

But I think she is a fighter but this closeness in this race is really brought that out in here. And she's always better whether she's fighting for anything, whether she's fighting for women and children and families or fighting for her own race. So, she's a better candidate.

BLACKWELL: I guess the message has changed from making the case to making the case to get out and get involved on Monday night.

Patti Solis Doyle, Mark Preston, Manu Raju, thank you all. We'll continue the conversations throughout the morning.

Now, of course, we talked about the numbers in Iowa. Ted Cruz trails Trump by a few points but have Trumps attacks been successful? Or is something else sticking here?

Plus, did the Cruz campaign intend to cast shame on Iowa voters? You've got to see this mailer. A lot of people are confused by this and the Iowa secretary of state is not happy.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: Live from Des Moines, just hours now before the start of the Iowa caucuses. And this morning, Iowa secretary of state is blasting Ted Cruz's campaign for a controversial mailer.

Here it is. Take a look. It apparently aims to drive voters to the polls for tomorrow's caucuses by claiming they have committed violations. Here's part of the copy you can't read.

"You are receiving this because of the low expected voter turnout in your area. Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors' are public record. Their scores is published blow and many of them will see your score as well. Caucus on Monday to improve your score."

Well, here is the Secretary of State Paul Pate's response: "Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for president campaign that misrepresents the role of my office and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law. There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting.

[07:15:02] And any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and I believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa caucuses. The Iowa secretary of state's office never grades voters."

Well, let's talk about this. Brent Bozell joins me now from Washington. He is a Ted Cruz supporter and the chairman of the Media Research Campaign.

So, what do you make of this mailer?

BRENT BOZELL, CRUZ SURROGATE: Well, I think it's silly. What the secretary of state in Iowa didn't mention was that Barack Obama used a very similar approach in 2012 and no one denounced him. The Republican Party used a similar mailer in 2014 and this fellow didn't denounce them.

This is just another Ted Cruz attack. No one is talking about the fact that Ace Metrics, which is the most respected corporation in America that judges advertising, campaign advertising, just came out and said the most effective messaging is coming from Ted Cruz. It's like these attacks. They say that Ted Cruz is so unpopular, nobody likes Ted Cruz, how many media stories have we seen on this?

Guess what, if you look at Republicans in America and the polls are showing it, who's the single most popular well-liked of all the campaign candidates? Ted Cruz.

BLACKWELL: Brent, let me ask you this -- is it appropriate to -- as this appears to be -- shame a voter into caucusing? By giving them a grade of F and then by saying that your neighbors are going to see that you are a failure, too.

BOZELL: I don't think it is. And again I'm going to ask you did you do this story in 2012 with Barack Obama? BLACKWELL: Are you asking me did I do this story in 2012? No. I

didn't do this story in 2012.

BOZELL: Yes, I'm asking CNN. Did the CNN do a story on this?

BLACKWELL: I wasn't sitting here in 2012. I wasn't sitting here -- I wasn't sitting here in 2012. I don't know. You will have to asking someone who was working for CNN in 2012.

BOZELL: Nobody did, nobody did.

(CROSSTALK)

BLACKWELL: Let me ask you this. Should he apologize? Should Senator Cruz apologize?

BOZELL: No, absolutely not. Not only should he not but I think the press should apologize to Ted Cruz because Barack Obama did something very similar and nobody called him out on it.

BLACKWELL: All right. Well, let me ask you now about the numbers we're seeing. Just a few weeks ago, Ted Cruz was up by 10 points. Now, he is five points behind. What happened here? Were the Trump attacks, the admonishment from the governor? What stuck?

BOZELL: I don't think any of us really knows, at the end of the day, what exactly is happening here. Look, remember, in 2012, it was Rick Santorum who came out of nowhere. No one predicted he was going to win and he won the caucuses. Mike Huckabee in 2008 won caucuses.

You can't look at a standard poll and gauge who is going to come out and caucus on caucus day. It is two very different things. I know the Cruz campaign is very, very comfortable because they have a very strong ground game. And they believe that not only are they going to turn out the traditional caucus voters, but that they have new ones who are going o going to come out. So they feel very good.

BLACKWELL: So, we -- I know that you and the rest of the Cruz campaign and supporters hope that Ted Cruz pulls it out on Monday night. But if he doest not pull it out, and Donald Trump wins, how does the campaign recover moving into New Hampshire, moving into South Carolina? I mean, this may have been a state designed for a candidate like Ted Cruz.

BOZELL: I think Ted Cruz is still in good shape. He's got organizations in every state in America. He just came out with a report. He's got $19 million in the bank. So, he's well-positioned to run a national campaign all the way through to the convention.

BLACKWELL: All right. Brent Bozell, a Cruz supporter, thank you so much.

BOZELL: Thank you for having me.

BLACKWELL: Christi, we are counting down the hours until those caucuses begin. We'll continue our special coverage throughout the morning and throughout the day. We'll send it back to you right now in Atlanta.

PAUL: All righty, Victor. Thank you so much.

Listen, we're following major developments this morning in California. California authorities capturing the two remaining jail escapees. Details on the tip that helped police track him down.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:23:04] PAUL: Well that is the site of Des Moines, Iowa, a big place right now where all cameras, many eyes are focused as we are just hours away from the caucuses kicking into the gear there. Victor Blackwell, of course, is there. He'll have the latest and more for us from Iowa.

But right now, we want to talk about this happening in California. After eight days on the run here, all three of those fugitives are back in jail. The last two were caught yesterday in San Francisco, 400 miles north where they started, in Santa Ana.

CNN's Dan Simon live in San Francisco.

We know that they were in that white van we showed pictures of yesterday. One man may be responsible here for alerting police. Is that right, Dan?

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning, Christi.

It was the same van and that turned out to be key, because somebody here in San Francisco spotted that van and also saw the prisoners and flagged down police.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LARRY GRAY, WITNESS ARREST: I heard the police tell him to get on the ground.

SIMON (voice-over): Larry Gray initially thought the man police were arresting was a homeless person until he heard the tone of the officer's commands.

GRAY: Get on the ground, get on the ground -- I knew right then that that was more than a homeless person. And then I saw -- I kind of saw the complexion of the guy on the Internet and in the newspaper. So --

SIMON: That guy was 37-year-old Hossein Nayeri, the one suspected of being the ring leader behind the escape. Police say an unidentified tipster recognized him and the white van linked to the prisoners.

GRACE SCOTT GATPANDAN, SAN FRANCISCO POLICE DEPT.: A citizen saw someone, saw something suspicious, notified an officer and that notification ultimately led to the apprehension of two armed and dangerous suspects.

SIMON: The second man was 20-year-old Jonathan Tieu who officers found hiding inside the van parked in front of the Whole Foods grocery store.

[07:25:03] Police say they also found ammunition inside the vehicle.

SANDRA HUTCHENS, ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF: I can say this morning that the entire state can breathe sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be.

SIMON: A third escapee, 43-year-old Bac Duong, turned himself in on Friday at an auto part store in Orange County. The daring and elaborate escape took place on January 22nd. The men cut through a wall and crawl through plumbing tunnels, making their way onto the roof of the jail. Using bed sheets, they rappelled to the ground.

With the men back in custody, the focus now on how they did it. Late last week, authorities arrested this woman, Nooshafarian Ravaghi, who taught English inside the jail. The Orange County Sheriff's Department said she admitted giving materials to Nayeri, including maps and overhead photos of the area around the jail.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SIMON: Well, a $200,000 reward had been offered for information leading to the capture of the prisoners. Well, the sheriff in Orange County says that the tipster in San Francisco at least part of that reward. Seems like a fair thing to do -- Christi.

PAUL: Yes, I would think so, certainly. Dan Simon, we appreciate it. Thank you.

Listen, when we come back, could bad weather affect voter turnout? There's some dicey winter weather heading to Iowa. We're going to see what's in store for Monday.

Also, we're talking to some undecided voters about the role religion plays in their choices and what candidate they believe is most fit to be elected.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is a reason we're seeing Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz and Donald Trump doing so well is people are really frustrated with the things in Washington that don't get done.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm just hopeful that more people will get involved in the electoral process and that will kind of change the tide of our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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