Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Iowa Casts First Votes in Presidential Race. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[10:00:09] DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have to win in Iowa. If we do we're going to run the table, folks, and we're going to make this country so great, you're going to have victories all over the place.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The man is not serious. And it's not a sign of strength to show a total disregard about how the world works.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will unite the conservative movement.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What this campaign is about is a political revolution.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I hope you will vote for me. I hope you will fight for me, and I promise you this, I will stand up and fight for you.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will win the Iowa caucuses. We will win the nomination and we will win the general election. We will defeat Hillary Clinton and turn this country around.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow, in today for Carol Costello. It is 10:00 a.m. here on the East Coast. 9:00 a.m. in the all-important state of Iowa today.

Today is the day. We are just a few hours away from the first vote of the 2016 presidential election. All eyes on the Hawkeye State where voters will gather tonight to caucus. The big question, who will show up for their candidates? Also will they come out in droves more than in past years?

Take a look at the front of the "Des Moines Register" today. Turnout. Turnout is key because both of these races far too close to call. For Democrats, the CNN poll of poll shows a mere 3 percentage points separating Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. A statistical dead heat. This morning, though, a new poll out from Quinnipiac shows Sanders with a three-point edge in the state. And among Republicans, Donald Trump has a slight lead over Ted Cruz. So it is no surprise the four frontrunners are blitzing across the state today trying to win over the undecided.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: For those of you still thinking about this, weighing your options I hope I'll be able to persuade you.

TRUMP: We have to win in Iowa. You know, a lot of people say, Donald, just say do well in Iowa. I say I can't do that. I really want to win.

SANDERS: But I think the excitement and the energy is with our campaign.

CRUZ: If every man and woman here make sure that nine other people come and caucus tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. together we will win the Iowa caucuses.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: They all want to win tonight. My friend Erin Burnett live in Des Moines.

Erin, it's cold. It's a brisk day but a clear day. That snow storm is going to hold off, right, until they get to the caucuses?

ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: That's what they say. There's going to be a possible blizzard coming an inch an hour but it is going to come after midnight. So everyone should have a nice clear night to come out. And they don't anticipate it'll affect turnouts.

Months of speeches and they are finally making their last pushes and now really focusing on turnout. Making sure they have cars ready for people who need to be driven to caucus sites. I mean, it gets down to this granular level of detail. Ten hours from now, everyone going to be going into caucus. Once the votes are cast, that blizzard is going to sweep across much of the states here. And the blizzard of course means lots of winds, too. So if that had come hours earlier, it could really have changed this entire situation that we're seeing here.

All right. Well, I'm joined now by Mark Preston. This is pretty incredible what we've seen in these final hours. Just how negative and personal this has gotten.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: It absolutely has, Erin. And, in fact, look at today. It just shows you how close this race is and how every vote counts.

Look at this graphic right here where everybody is right now stumping for votes. It's just amazing the amount of activity right now that is going on here in the state. But to your point, the negativity has ratcheted up. Not only are they asking for votes, they're trying to take away votes from people. Last night Donald Trump went right after his main competitor Ted Cruz. Let's take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: Ted Cruz is a total liar. I am so against Obamacare. I have been saying it for two years in my speeches. I'm going to repeal and replace Obamacare. I don't know where he gets this. But he's a liar.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: I mean, you know, you talk about it being personal and it being nasty. I mean, that shows this. And then in the final hours, we're just starting to see how much money everyone is raising which of course is crucial not just for Iowa but in terms of who can actually hang in after Iowa and continue fighting.

PRESTON: Right. This is not a one-step process. There are two, three, four, five, six steps. After Iowa, we are right to New Hampshire and we'll see what happens up there. But yes, I mean, just look at these numbers which is going to show you the staying power of people. And the amazing thing is look at Donald Trump right there. He's only raised $2.8 million. Can you imagine that? $2.8 million. I might have $2.8 million in the bank for god's sakes, right? But look at Ben Carson right there.

BURNETT: Yes.

PRESTON: He raised $22.6 million. In the latest "Des Moines Register," the gold standards of poll, shows he still -- he has 10 percent of the vote. Loyal supporters. You know who that's likely to hurt? Ted Cruz.

BURNETT: Which is incredible, but I mean just hold this number up for one more second. $22.6 million for Ben Carson. I think that this makes a point about the national media, too. You know, people have not been talking about Ben Carson because he hasn't been showing up very much in the polls.

[10:05:05] PRESTON: He hasn't. Yes.

BURNETT: Right? But clearly his supporters are loyal. I mean, that is the top fundraising total.

PRESTON: Right. And you know, that money is not coming from big corporations. He's getting that in small dollar donations.

BURNETT: Right.

PRESTON: Primarily probably evangelical voters who are very, very loyal. And again that hurts Ted Cruz because we know that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are fighting for the evangelical vote. Well, guess what, who could take the evangelical vote from Ted Cruz.

BURNETT: Fascinating, fascinating. All right. Thank you very much to Mark Preston.

Let's turn to the Democratic side of things now. Our national political reporter Maeve Reston has been talking to those senior operatives. Maeve, obviously this is too close to call. The latest poll this

morning actually putting Bernie Sanders ahead a few points, all within the margin of error. The one yesterday putting Hillary Clinton ahead. I mean, it is stunning. And people talk about how in modern political history we have not seen anything like this.

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes. And who would have thought we would be here at this moment with Bernie Sanders, you know, a Democratic socialist, giving Hillary Clinton this kind of a fight. Both of these candidates were out on the campaign trail all weekend hammering their closing arguments.

Bernie Sanders talking about galvanizing young voters and wanting to lead a revolution. Hillary Clinton saying that she's a proven change maker, the person who has actually been able to produce results. And it was really interesting when she talked to CNN earlier about the lessons that she learned from 2008 and what the difference for her might be today.

Let's take a listen to that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I always thought we'd have a close contest, and I think that's good. It's good for the Democratic Party. But I'm thrilled at my campaign and we learned a lot of lessons. We've applied those lessons. We've got a great team working literally around the clock, and I think I'm a better candidate. I think, you know, my experience as secretary of state gave me a depth and understanding about what the next president will face that frankly nobody else running on either side could have. And I think that what voters are looking for is a way out of their frustration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RESTON: And Hillary Clinton clearly does have a lot of things to be excited about today. We have some numbers from her fundraising haul from last year. She raised $112 million in 2015 which is just a staggering figure. At the same time, you've got have Bernie Sanders out there raising a lot of money as well. Particularly small dollar donations. He raised $20 million in January his campaign is telling us this weekend. And -- so it's going to be a fight to the finish here. Both of them have the resources to really have a muscular ground game. We've seen evidence here of it on the ground. And we'll have to see who can pull it out tonight -- Erin.

BURNETT: All right. Thank you very much, Maeve. I mean, it's amazing to see the amount of money when you add it up on the Democratic side, on the Republican side, how much money people in this country, not just big corporations, individual people are putting into politics.

One demographic that Bernie Sanders is doing particularly well with when you look at his numbers which all come from those small donors is young people. Just take a look at this. They love it. It works. And it works because he is not in their

demographic. Young voters have flocked to Bernie Sanders. Accompanied by the band Vampire Weekend, the Millennial Favorite. He sang the old favorite song. Sanders has been cashing in on the youth vote. On that front, though, Hillary Clinton has not done as well.

Let's just show you that new Quinnipiac poll. A breakdown of support by age group. And we've seen this in poll after poll. But this is the poll out this morning, 18 to 34 years old, Clinton 23 percent. Sanders nearly triple that. That is a pretty stunning split.

And I want to talk now to Andy McGuire, the Iowa Democratic chair. She's here with in Des Moines. Jennifer Granholm, the former Michigan governor and senior adviser for pro Hillary Clinton super PAC is with me as well.

Governor, thank you very much. And let's just start with these numbers. I mean, Governor, you know, we've seen this in poll after poll after poll. What is the challenge you think that Hillary Clinton is facing with young voters? I mean, you've had to look at this and say why? Why is this happening? Why do you think it is?

JENNIFER GRANHOLM, SENIOR ADVISER, PRO-HILLARY CLINTON SUPER PAC: Well, I do think that young people are inspired by words like revolution of major change, et cetera, but I think what Hillary Clinton is trying to do in reaching out to them, because she's not the giving up on making sure that she's got a campaign that can reach out to them is to say it is great to share those values, those aspirational values, and she does, but she's also able to put feet to her prayers by putting out policies that will actually move the ball forward.

No matter what happens in the next -- after this election, you're probably going to see Paul Ryan still as speaker of the House. So no matter who is the president you're going to have to work with him. There's not a likelihood that Paul Ryan is going to agree to massive changes, like Bernie Sanders is suggesting, but she agrees with the value under girding them and the policies that she's putting in place are inspirational because they can be done.

[10:10:05] BURNETT: So, Andy, on the ground, how did it -- how did it work out? When you look at the young voters, right? I mean, obviously you see that they're most likely to go for Bernie Sanders. Are they actually going to turn out.

ANDY MCGUIRE, CHAIR, IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY: Well, that's the big question. And that's turnout all over the state is the big question. One thing about caucuses, you do need people to turn out all over the state. What I will tell you is all three candidates have great organizations, and they are all over the state. So I expect a really good turnout. I'm not sure if any age group will tip it over, but it certainly -- he has a lot of enthusiasm.

BURNETT: So on this issue, though, again, the Quinnipiac poll out this morning of turnout, Democrats, 35 percent of first-time caucus goers are likely to support Hillary Clinton, 62 percent to back Bernie Sanders.

MCGUIRE: Yes.

BURNETT: Again, you're seeing that vote -- of course it matches what we're seeing, the governor was just talking about with the young voters. But do you expect these are the numbers we are going to see at the end of the day?

MCGUIRE: Well, that's exactly what the organizations have to do. It is not easy to get first-time caucus goers to go to one place at a particular time. We want them to go there. We want great turnouts and so we're -- we're also advocating for everyone to get out and caucus today. But it is hard sometimes to turn out those new voters so that will be the rub. That will be the thing that we decide at 9:30 is who got out their voters, which campaign and organization was better at getting out their voters.

BURNETT: So, Governor Granholm, we also see the split among young and -- go ahead, go ahead, Governor.

GRANHOLM: I was just going to say, just to build on what Dr. McGuire was saying, I mean, Hillary Clinton, she learned a lot of lessons. You talk about the lessons from 2008. And she has been in Iowa now since the beginning of 2015 since she announced. She has not taken any bit for granted. So she's got over 4,200 precinct captains for the over 1600 precincts all across the state. They have 150 staging areas across the state.

They have turned out an incredible organization, and they're targeting their voters, including the young people who support them. So the question for her and for her team is, can you make this organization work like a machine tonight, and that's what we'll all be watching.

BURNETT: All right. So the other issue, and you know, maybe this is partly based on age. I mean, I'm sure it is. Right? In a significant way. But we see the same split among women, Governor. We see that older women, they are much more passionate about Hillary Clinton. And perhaps they want to see a woman president in their lifetime. They want to vote for her.

Younger women do not. They're going for Sanders. Maybe it's because they're young, but it also seems because they know there will be a woman president, and they think it's anti-feminist to vote for someone because she's a woman. They want to vote for someone because they're the best candidate and it happens to be a woman. Is that going to be a big hurdle for you? The young women are not so far passionate about her. They're going for Bernie.

GRANHOLM: Well, all I can say is, I am the mother of two daughters. Andy has got seven kids, I'm sure some of them are daughters. And Andy and I, and people of our generation, Andy and I are in our 50s. We have been -- we are women who have worked to breakthrough ceilings all of our lives. And this is why older women, middle age women, once you get over 35, they support her enormously because we have this chance to support the most qualified person in our lifetime to run for president, and she happens to be a woman. I'm hoping that these young women -- I mean, you know, obviously the

younger you are, the more you have not been in the work force to experience potentially the number, the volume of sexist attacks or gendered attacks that older women have experienced, and perhaps there -- you know, that's maybe one of the reasons why they are not as enthused about breaking this highest, hardest glass ceiling, but I can tell you.

BURNETT: Yes.

GRANHOLM: You better believe I'm enthused to be able to support a woman for president who happens to be the most qualified person ever to run.

BURNETT: And Andy, before you go, she mentioned you have seven kids. Five of them are daughters.

MCGUIRE: Five of them are daughters.

BURNETT: I know that you aren't able to take a side. But are they all going to vote?

MCGUIRE: They are all going to caucus, yes.

BURNETT: They're all going to caucus. And their ages range from?

MCGUIRE: 19 to 29.

BURNETT: All right. I know you're not allowed to say what they're going to do, but wow, I feel that would be fascinating.

Andy McGuire, thank you so very much. Governor Jennifer Granholm, always good to talk to you as well.

GRANHOLM: You bet.

BURNETT: And still to come, Ted Cruz taking flak over that last- minute mailer. You know, kind of masqueraded as an official document. It offended some people and it offended the secretary of state here in Iowa. We'll talk about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[10:18:40] PHIL ROBERTSON, TED CRUZ SUPPORTER: It's nonsense. It is evil. It's wicked. It's sinful. And they want us to swallow, you say. You have to run this bunch out of Washington, D.C. We have to rid the earth of them. Get them out of there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: That is "Duck Dynasty" star, Phil Robertson, a Cruz supporter, talking about gay marriage in a pitch to Iowa's evangelical voters. Ted Cruz, by the way, took the stage after that and talked about Phil Robertson in glowing terms. Did not dismiss or say that he wasn't against those comments, didn't reference them at all. He has seen a 12-point decline in evangelical support in Iowa just in January so he was at 37 percent back in early January according to the "Des Moines Register" poll which again is really the gold standard because they know Iowa better than anybody. It's now 25 percent in their latest poll which came out the umpteen hour on Saturday evening.

Now votes of course being cast tonight. The question is whether things like these are going to be enough to help the Texas senator at the polls.

Joe Johns, our senior Washington correspondent, is with me. You're going to be covering the Cruz campaign. You know, that was a last- minute push for evangelical voters.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Right.

BURNETT: And perhaps something like that said, to not come out against it, something that obviously is going to be negative down the line.

JOHNS: Right. Well, what's really interesting about Cruz is that he's held himself out as a trusted religious conservative, but he's come under tremendous attack from so many of the candidates who are also religious conservatives, from Santorum, from Carson. Well, frankly even from Donald Trump.

BURNETT: Right.

[10:20:14] JOHNS: People questioning his religious conservative credentials and that clearly has caused problems for him. He's tried to push back on it by again and again and again talking on the campaign trail about his faith. But listen to this ad by a group. We don't really know who is supporting them or who they're supporting, but clearly it's an attack on his religious conservative credentials. It's a radio ad. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I also heard he gives less than 1 percent to charity and church.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He doesn't tithe? But isn't he a millionaire? His wife worked for a big Wall Street bank, right?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. Goldman Sachs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOHNS: So there you go. Big attack on Ted Cruz, and it has hurt him. This is a state where religious conservatives count in a very big way when it comes to the Republican caucuses. We'll whether he can push back on that and it all has to do with turnout. How many of his people he can get out supporting in Des Moines.

BURNETT: And that was the double whammy -- hitting him on the God issue and hitting him on Wall Street all in one felt nasty swoop. All right, thank you very much, Joe Johns. As we said going to be

covering Ted Cruz site of this tonight. Ted Cruz of course in the center, whether he can actually pull this out tonight or not.

Rekha Basu is with me. An opinion columnist with the "Des Moines Register." As we said, you all have the gold standard poll here, showing this is such a close race that we're seeing in these final hours. So you just heard that radio ad that Joe was playing.

REKHA BASU, OPINION COLUMNIST, DES MOINES REGISTER: Yes.

BURNETT: Slamming Ted Cruz both for his evangelical credentials and also for his wife's working at Goldman Sachs. What would you say about the tone of this in the final hours? We have been describing it as very nasty. What would you say? How bad is it?

BASU: I think between Trump and Cruz, it's particularly nasty. I don't think we're seeing it as nasty on the Democratic side. But I think that, you know, Iowa being a very heavily evangelical state as far as the Republican Party, and Republican Party caucus attendance goes. Everybody is trying to rock their evangelical credentials. And what is so, I think, paradoxical to me is that Donald Trump is really not that much of an evangelical. You know, he comes out with the Two Corinthians things, and he's still scoring the highest with evangelicals or --

(CROSSTALK)

BURNETT: Now why do you think that is? I mean, this is something you've been covering race after race after race.

BASU: Right.

BURNETT: You've been covering this historically. Why is it that Donald Trump has done so well with evangelical voters? He is not an evangelical.

BASU: No. He is not an evangelical. I think that it's very easy for him to just sort of reverse himself and say well, I used to support abortion, even late-term abortion, and now I don't, and people will hang with him and the reason is because I think all of his supporters really think he's a man of strength. And that he's going to -- he is not going to let ISIS push us around. He's not going to let foreign governments push us around.

He's in control, and he's strong. And I think that more than any other characteristics of his that's the one that resonates with people. That they think he won't take any nonsense. And he also scores very high with people who think that the system is rigged against us. So evangelical or not, I mean, I've heard some evangelicals say they're willing to put the evangelical part aside to get someone in office who they think is strong and will stand up for people who think the system is rigged against them.

BURNETT Now is this a change from what you've seen in prior races? That evangelicals are saying religion is not -- is not the most important thing to me?

BASU: Well, it's interesting. You know, in the Romney -- in the Romney race with Santorum when Santorum actually won that race.

BURNETT: Right.

BASU: It was extremely close, so obviously Romney got some of the evangelical vote, but I think that -- but I think that generally the people who have won in the Iowa caucuses on the Republican side have been -- have been evangelical. And that's why the argument has been made, and I've made it, too, that Iowa Republicans are not necessarily representative broadly of the rest of the nation because they're much more evangelical dominated. Much more likely to be home schooling their children.

BURNETT: So we -- which is a fascinating point. And we just heard Donald Trump last night say -- in the way only Donald Trump can, guys, you pick losers. For, you know, 16 years you picked losers here.

BASU: Yes. Yes.

BURNETT: The Republican who has won Iowa has not won the GOP nomination.

BASU: That's right.

BURNETT: Basically pick a winner.

BASU: Right.

BURNETT: Because after this race it's all on the table. Schedule could change, what state goes first could change, everything could change.

BASU: Exactly.

BURNETT: How important is that to Iowa voters that they want to pick a winner?

BASU: I think it's very important to them. And I think that they -- you know, I think they were extremely proud of choosing Barack Obama back in 2008, you know, when nobody --

BURNETT: On the Democratic side.

BASU: On the Democratic side because people really didn't know much about him. And at the time, you know, conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton would just absolutely run away with it. So I think yes, there is -- I think on the Democratic side, you know, there has been a greater success story.

[10:25:03] I think on the Republican side, people are more ideologically committed to their positions whether it's Tea Party or evangelicals. So picking the winner is not necessarily the overriding factor.

BURNETT: So, Rekha, the other issue here of course is turnout.

BASU: Yes.

BURNETT: And everyone talks about it, everyone says it's the magic question. It's the magic question. OK.

BASU: Yes.

BURNETT: So you've seen this so many times.

BASU: Yes.

BURNETT: Do you actually think people are going to turn out? Now let's just make something clear. On the Democratic side, everyone around you knows who you vote for.

BASU: Yes.

BURNETT: OK. On the Republican side they don't. It's secret ballot.

BASU: Right. Right.

BURNETT: That's obviously something conventional wisdom would say would favor Donald Trump. Do you think that you're going to see this turnout surge on the Republican side or not?

BASU: I think there's going to be good turnout. Will be a huge surge? I suppose more of a surge on the Republican side than the Democratic side.

BURNETT: Interesting you think that. OK.

BASU: Yes. But, you know, and some people have made the argument that actually the fact that you have to publicly identify who you're voting for on the Democratic side in the caucuses, suppresses turnout. I don't know if that's necessarily true. But I have heard the case made that you don't necessarily want your neighbors to know that you're not voting for this one or that one or even your spouse or partner necessarily.

BURNETT: Right. Right.

BASU: So it could -- you know, but I think that the unknowables about tonight and have been on the Democratic side, generally have been younger voters, what they will do. Whether they will deliver or not because in the case of Howard Dean, for example, they were his biggest constituency, and they didn't ultimately turn out for him when he ran in 2004.

BURNETT: Good question for Bernie Sanders.

All right. Thank you so much. An on-the-ground knowledge of it. No one can provide.

So, Rekha, it's great to talk to you. And still to come, Martin O'Malley. He could be the kingmaker here in

Iowa. Some feel the third place Democratic could give Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton the edge tonight in Iowa. It's complicated how the caucuses work but the bottom line is it could come down to Martin O'Malley. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)