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Trump's Final Pitch; Iowa Caucus; Sanders Iowa Campaign. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:00] SARAH PALIN (R), FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: Thinking that they know best or that they know the intricacies of your life so they can make decisions for you. So that's what I've been concerned about with this whole caucus process.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: You can see the rest of the interview with Sarah Palin coming up later today, 4:00 p.m. Eastern on "The Lead" with Jake Tapper.

Thanks for watching. The news continues next on CNN.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go. Top of the hour. So great to be with you on this Monday. I'm Brooke Baldwin, live in Des Moines, with CNN's special coverage of the Iowa caucuses.

Today is the day. This is a state where a winter blizzard is in the forecast, yes, and a political earthquake may just be on the horizon. In a matter of hours, we will finally see if upstart Republican frontrunner Donald Trump will live up to the polls. He has led nearly all of them on the Republican side. But will that support in these surveys turn into real actual votes on the ground here in the Hawkeye state tonight?

At 7:00 Central Time, Iowans will close the doors in 1,681 precincts and swing open the caucuses to choose their presidential nominees. And while Trump, yes, he is in the lead for the Republicans, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, let me tell you, they are pushing hard for every non- Trump vote. A solid showing here could elevate either of them as the Trump - as the favorite Trump alternative now that the primary season is officially in full swing.

And it's not just the Republicans on the verge of a - of a seismic shift. Self-proclaimed democratic socialist Bernie Sanders could beat Hillary Clinton tonight. Let me repeat, Bernie Sanders could beat Hillary Clinton tonight. You look at those polls here in this state, they are neck and neck. It is a tight spot for Clinton that puts her front runner status under scrutiny.

Let's kick off this hour with my colleague, CNN politics reporter MJ Lee. She is in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where Trump will hold a rally minutes from now.

MJ, I read that Trump woke up this morning and said he's nervous. I didn't know The Donald got nervous.

MJ LEE, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Well, Brooke, this is really it. This is Donald Trump's final rally in the state of Iowa before voters head to the caucuses. He knows that everything matters at this point. And behind me he is going to take the stage. Sarah Palin will be joining him, bringing her star power to this final rally.

Now, I think as we watch these final rallies that the candidates are holding today, the question that we're asking is, is there anything that these candidates can do to actually make a difference just six hours out? Well, I want to tell you about one Iowa voter that I've become friendly with recently. I met him three weeks ago at a Trump rally and at that point he was completely undecided between Trump and Cruz. He didn't know which way he was going to go. I gave him a call last night and I asked him, so, have you decided? And lo and behold he is still undecided. He says that he probably will not have decided even when he walks into the local caucus site. He said that he, at one point, was leaning towards Trump, but when he decided to skip the Fox News debate, he was bothered by it and he just isn't sure anymore. So this is just one of many Iowa voters who are going to be undecided heading into caucus night. And so six hours out, every voter counts.

BALDWIN: My waitress last night, undecided as well. That is part of the story line here as we head into the caucuses this evening.

MJ Lee, thank you so much.

So what could happen tonight? Let me bring in my political experts here sitting with me. With me now, senior editor at "The Daily Caller," Jamie Weinstein, Democratic strategist and CNN political commentator Donna Brazile, senior contributor to "The Daily Caller" and CNN political commentator Matt Lewis, and CNN political commentator Hilary Rosen, who firm advises Democratic candidates and the Democratic National Committee.

Hello. Are we excited? Are we feeling it? Caucus day.

Let me just first, Matt, to you. Just quickly, like what are you looking for tonight? What could we expect?

MATT LEWIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think we can probably expect a surprise. The conventional wisdom, of course, is Trump, Cruz, Rubio. But what we know is, a lot of times that goes out the window, you know?

BALDWIN: Yes.

LEWIS: Who saw Rick Santorum coming last time? We thought Hillary Clinton was going to win New Hampshire - was going to lose New Hampshire in 2008. She ended up winning it. So don't be surprised if we're all talking about something polling, something else happens.

BALDWIN: You mean we won't totally predict everything that's going to happen tonight, Donna Brazile?

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: We shouldn't. The people on the Republican side, 45 percent of the people might, you know, might change their position. On the Democratic side, it's about less than a third. What we do know is that there's a lot of excitement, there's a lot of passion in this political season. And who knows, we talked about the earthquake, we talked about, you know, the blizzard.

BALDWIN: Right.

BRAZILE: There may be a wave of support, a tsunami of support at the last minute for one of the top tier candidates. So I think tonight we're going to have a really good time and just caucus and standing up in front your neighbor, declaring your support. I haven't done that since the 1970s.

BALDWIN: In a library, in a gym, who knows where.

BRAZILE: Yes. Yes.

BALDWIN: Hilary, I know one huge threat is voter turnout. When you look at the numbers, only 10,000 new voters this year compared to 30,000 of the past. And I'm wondering if, if, if voter turnout records are shattered, I'm thinking it would bode well for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Am I right?

[14:05:15] HILARY ROSEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: That's the - that's the expectation -

BALDWIN: Right.

ROSEN: That the two people who are most likely to bring new caucus goers are Trump and Sanders. And, in fact, in the polling, previous caucus goers favored Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz. So it really depends on an organization from Trump and Sanders to change the conventional wisdom, to change the polls, to give the kind of surprise that Matt's talking about.

And both campaigns are working extremely hard to make sure that happens. And, obviously, Hillary Clinton's operation, not as familiar with the Cruz operation, but Hillary Clinton's operation is preparing for that. They're trying to up their numbers. They're trying to steal some O'Malley voters wherever they can.

BALDWIN: Yes. Yes.

ROSEN: So there are a lot of tactics now. Today is all about tactics.

BALDWIN: Tactics, nerves, as I mentioned, Donald Trump saying he's nervous. Hillary Clinton waking up saying she's excited. I'm wondering, though, whether or not one of the questions with - with Donald Trump is, if this, you know, when you see the fly byes and the excitement and it looks like a rock concert, so he hopes, but will all those people actually translate to votes?

JAMIE WEINSTEIN, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE DAILY CALLER": Well, I think there's one of two ways that we're going to find out. We're either going to find out the polls were underestimating Donald Trump's support or they're overestimating it. If he doesn't get those voters to the polls, they're there for the entertainment, they wanted to go for the show. But if more people come out than expected and he actually overshoots those polls, he might be like the Jesse Ventura effect in 1998 in Minnesota where this celebrity brought a lot of people, new voters to the polls than the polls expected - to the - than the polls before the election expected, and Trump may be cruising to an overwhelming victory, not only in Iowa but all around - all through the primary election.

ROSEN: We're really running two - two campaigns.

LEWIS: Yes, this - well, this - yes, and this could be - I think we're on the cusp of, you know, a couple different narratives. But one possible narrative would be, Donald Trump is a juggernaut. He's off and running. And he's going to run the table, at least for three or four states.

BALDWIN: That's - that's what he said.

LEWIS: If he wins big in Iowa, you know, what - he's going to win really big in New Hampshire (ph).

BALDWIN: But what if he doesn't? But what if he doesn't?

LEWIS: Well, look, I think that a couple of other - the other narratives, right? If Ted Cruz wins, then, obviously, the media focuses around him. But I think that - that if Trump wins but Rubio comes in a really strong third, I think he needs about 18 percent, I think he could become the alternate, you know, because Cruz needs to win Iowa. A second place finish for Cruz is probably worse than a third place finish for Rubio.

WEINSTEIN: But if - if Trump doesn't win Iowa, you already know what the message is going to be. Iowa doesn't pick winners. When's the last time they picked a winner?

BALDWIN: That's exactly what - that's exactly what I was thinking.

WEINSTEIN: They're all losers (ph) over here.

BALDWIN: Once he gets to New Hampshire - exactly.

WEINSTEIN: New Hampshire picks winners. And (ph) I'm a winner.

BRAZILE: But, you know, but Iowa's still going to be a battlefield state this fall.

But, look, here's the - here's the thing that Trump is banking on, along with Sanders, first-time voters. Barack Obama proves in 2008 that you can expand your electorate. Over the last six months we've seen a little tick in voter registration. But in this state, the Hawkeye state, you can actually show up tonight and register to vote. If you're an independent, you can also caucus with the Republicans or the Democrats.

BALDWIN: And let me say on that, and we have entire segments just dedicated to the process, which is fascinating in and of itself. But it's different for Democrats as it would be for Republicans. Republican, you choose one, you're out. Democrats, as I remember the sound bite from Barack Obama in 2008, if you don't pick me as number one, pick me as your second choice.

BRAZILE: That's right, viability is 15 percent. We - we apportion our delegates. Delegates are based on the proportion. Fifteen percent is the threshold. So if you're an O'Malley supporter and a precinct dominated by Clinton people or Sanders people, then who will you caucus with to get viability or will you remain uncommitted and try to get that as a - you know, as a proportional number. Fifteen percent.

One other thing to mention, is if you're 17 and a half and your birthday's in June and you're eligible to vote in November, you can also vote tonight in the caucus. So - and veterans overseas, if you're paying attention, I know you're looking at Brooke, you're not looking at me, but that's all right.

BALDWIN: Stop it. Stop it right there.

BRAZILE: Thank you for your service. You can also vote in the Democratic process tonight. So we try to - we try to make the caucus more accessible to people.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BRAZILE: We want to open it up. We want the enthusiasm. We want the passion. But, more importantly, we want people to caucus.

BALDWIN: Quickly, Hilary, final thought from you. What could be the biggest surprise out of the night?

ROSEN: Well, you know, this notion of a Clinton supporter versus Sander supporters. Where do the O'Malley people go?

BALDWIN: Right.

ROSEN: That really is a precinct by precinct issue.

BALDWIN: Right.

ROSEN: So, you know, Hillary Clinton is expected to have a big turnout in, you know, the north and the western parts of the state where she can win some precincts. So O'Malley - Sanders is going to be stronger in the cities and where the urban colleges are. But you can still only win so many delegates in those urban populated areas. So what we're going to see the Clinton team do is to try and take those places where there are fewer O'Malley voters, where they can't get enough to make Martin O'Malley succeed, be so-called viable, as Donna described it -

BALDWIN: I've heard they have their -

ROSEN: And have them pull over to the Clinton team. And so to try and hold the Sanders' numbers down outside of the cities in those second tier counties. Whether they're successful with that strategy, I think, is what's going to be whether they win or not. [14:10:07] BALDWIN: The Clinton camp has campaign staffers in every

single precinct. They do not want the ghost of 2008 to haunt them again.

ROSEN: There's a lot of PST -

BALDWIN: PTSD.

ROSEN: PTSD going on around the -

BALDWIN: Yes.

ROSEN: The Clinton world.

BALDWIN: Hilary and Matt and Donna and Jamie, thank you all so much. So much to talk about here.

Coming up next, I went to a Bernie Sanders rally, just asked some of his supporters, actually was curious, can you define socialism? And let me tell you, the responses were interesting. We'll play that for you coming up.

Also ahead, hear why many voters here in Iowa decide their pick today, or at least in the days just before the caucuses. Which candidate could that actually help?

And any moment now as we're watching all these different candidates in these final hours crisscross the state, we're watching and waiting for Donald Trump there. Live pictures out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Ted Cruz, by the way, is holding a competing rally as well this hour.

Stay with me. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN's special live coverage on this caucus day here in the Hawkeye state.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:15:15] BALDWIN: You're watching CNN here on this Iowa caucus day, the first of the nation caucus, as we have thrown up two live pictures for you. These are competing campaign rallies. On the left side of your screen, we're watching and waiting for Donald Trump. On the right side of your screen, we're watching and waiting for Ted Cruz. And let me tell you, on this caucus day, these are these candidate's final, final close arguments to convince these caucus goers why they need to come out and caucus for these candidates.

Campaign central, this is where I am, the beautiful statehouse behind me here in Des Moines. Just a couple of hours, the first votes in the presidential election will be cast. But here it's not as simple as walking into a voting booth and just pushing a couple of buttons. No. Iowans vote in caucuses and caucuses are events. How do they work?

Let me bring in Susan Page, she is the Washington bureau chief for "USA Today" and a journalist who has covered now ten presidential elections. Susan, you were just with me in Des Moines. You are already a step

ahead of me now in Manchester, New Hampshire. So let me just begin here with explaining to folks the difference in terms of if you're voting Republican versus Democrat here in Iowa. It's a closed ballot for Republicans here, meaning you just select one candidate. But Democrats, it's a totally different process regarding viability. Explain that to our viewers.

SUSAN PAGE, "USA TODAY" WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: So if you're a Republican, you just walk in, you have a secret ballot. Your neighbors don't have to know who you're voting for. But if you're a Democrat, you go into a public space. You've got to go stand with a group. The group with the candidate that you're supporting. And then you got lobbied. You get lobbied by people in other groups who want you to come over and join them.

So it's a very public event. It involves some cajoling sometimes. And especially if you don't reach viability. Viability is 15 percent. If you don't have 15 percent of the people who are at a caucus, you're not a viable group and you have a choice of either going undecided or joining some other candidates. We'll see some of that tonight with the O'Malley supporters unlikely to get 15 percent. They should be up for grabs.

BALDWIN: And that's an important piece of this because second place will play an important role tonight.

PAGE: That's right. If the Sanders and Clinton folks are very closely divided, as they will be some places, the O'Malley supporters could make the difference in tipping them one way or another. They could be important in determining the delegate breakdown at the end of the night.

BALDWIN: And also, I mean, it - I'm so fascinated by the process here because it also - you could be swayed - you mentioned cajoling, you know, whether you are in a small town, you know a lot of people, you're in a small, you know, school library versus a massive gym. How do all of those details factor in to your decision?

PAGE: You know, they certainly can factor in. Say your best friend is a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders. Even if you like Hillary Clinton a little better, maybe that gets you over with the Bernie Sanders camp. So these personal relationships make a difference. You know, that's one reason Hillary Clinton has focused on a lot of organization. She has a really good organization this time in Iowa. And that can pay off when you get to caucus night.

BALDWIN: What about voter turnout? You know, we're not going to read into any tea leaves. If some, you know, precinct has longer lines, that doesn't mean anything. But I was listening to former Senator Harken say something like he thinks if there are large crowds forming before 7:00 tonight, that that will be a good sign in terms of folks getting out to caucus. Would you agree with that?

PAGE: You tell me what the turnout is and I'll tell you who wins tonight, because if the turnout is really big on the Democratic side, that is good news for Bernie Sanders. He's got lots of support. But Hillary Clinton has stronger support among those who have caucused before. If turnout's pretty low or just, you know, sort of average, I think that's good news for Hillary Clinton.

And on the Republican side as well, bigger turnout, better for Donald Trump. Lower turnout, good for Ted Cruz, because he has such an extensive organization in Iowa. Really the most extensive organization certainly of anyone on the Republican side.

So, yes, if people - if you see big crowds lining up to register to vote, to re-register to be in a different party, you can tell who that is likely to advantage on each side.

BALDWIN: Susan Page, we'll see you in New Hampshire in a couple of days. Thank you so much.

PAGE: See you there.

BALDWIN: Coming - OK, deal.

Coming up, four years ago, the Iowa caucuses produced one of the closest finishes in history, only to be decided days later after a recount. Could we see another tight race this time around and will Iowa be ready? We'll talk with the chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa coming up next.

Also ahead, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump holding dueling rallies this hour. Live pictures for you. we're watching and waiting. Making their final pitch to caucus goers. We'll watch both of those campaigns and dip into both of those.

[14:20:05] Keep it here. You're watching CNN's special live coverage live from Des Moines, Iowa.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Here he is, Senator Ted Cruz, final pitch. We going to go there? Final pitch. Oh, hearing we lost the signal. Just being totally transparent. As soon as we see the shot back up with Ted Cruz - we just want to make sure we show all of these candidates. This is his final stop here, final pitch to caucus goers in Jefferson, Iowa. As soon as we get it back up, I promise we'll take it.

Meantime, it is no secret Bernie Sanders is attracting big crowds, new voters. I wanted to see it for myself. I left Des Moines for Iowa City, a couple hours away, to check out his rally headlined by popular bands like Vampire Weekend, "This Land is My Land" on stage there with the lead singer of Vampire Weekend at the end of this rally. Foster the People was there. You know, and I got a chance to just talk to some of these people, these young people in the room, and I said, why Bernie? Here's what they told me.

[14:25:13] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Why Bernie Sanders? KATIE SENN, SANDERS SUPPORTER: Bernie Sanders seems like the only

candidate who's really unwilling to pander to just whatever's going on.

GEORGE THEOGOKATOS, SANDERS SUPPORTER: Bernie has, from the very beginning, he's been steadfast in his ways. He's always had the same views. And he's always advocating for the people.

MARTESE CHISM, SANDERS SUPPORTER: He's telling the truth. You know, as a nurse, you've got to look at the (INAUDIBLE), you know, the young people and look at their judgment. They can sense something in him. And if you're true and true to what you believe, that inspires them.

BALDWIN: How is Bernie Sanders in touch with the millennial generation?

THEOGOKATOS: You know, it beats the hell out of me, but he does it. And I think it's really about listening.

CHISM: Bernie Sanders has these young kids' back. That is why they're here.

THEOGOKATOS: He has been at it and he does not quit. Like, there is so much wishy-washiness that happens in politics.

SENN: He's talking about immigration. He's talk - in a positive way. Let's get people in. Let's make this happen. He's also, you know, talking about marijuana and drug reforms and all these things that are wrong with our country and providing real answers.

BALDWIN: So if you like Bernie, what don't you like about Hillary Clinton?

THEOGOKATOS: I think Hillary is a great candidate. I think she's done a lot for the party. I think she has a lot of inconsistencies. And I think she's out of touch with the millennial generation.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bernie is funded by, you know, donations. And Hillary's funded by like a lot of big companies.

BALDWIN: How do you think Iowa's going to go?

SENN: I think Iowa's going to go Bernie.

CHISM: My great-great-grandmother was a civil rights activist. In 1966, she was murdered. And if she was looking down from heaven and seeing her granddaughter here with all these young kids.

BALDWIN: Young kids in this crowd.

CHISM: Young kids fighting for medical rights, she would be shouting in heaven with all the rest of the civil rights activists.

BALDWIN: Can you define socialism?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Socialism? BALDWIN: Can you define socialism?

THEOGOKATOS: Can I define socialism? Probably not. If I'm being totally honest.

SENN: Socialism. Oh, boy. I don't think I can.

THEOGOKATOS: Like Social Security erodes, Medicaid depending on the form that it takes, anything that's sort of come together and publicly funded through our government would be socialism. I might be wrong. So if you make me look like a fool on the news, I'll forgive you for it.

CHISM: What Hillary said, no you can't. To me, that's just like telling Dr. Martin Luther King, you don't - you couldn't dream. There's nothing wrong with dreaming. We ought to teach our kids to dream. We don't want to tell our kids, you cannot dream. You can dream and it can be possible with a political revolution.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: And that was just one rally for one of these candidates. It's incredible to be there, to feel it, to see it for your very own self. Senator Sanders hoping the young vote, of course, will put him over the edge here in Iowa. He and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck. And right now they are scrambling for all the last-minute support they can get.

Joining me now is Bernie Sanders' national press secretary Symone Sanders.

Nice to see you back here.

SYMONE SANDERS, NATIONAL PRESS SECRETARY, SANDERS CAMPAIGN: Nice to be here.

BALDWIN: How you doing?

SANDERS: I'm good. I'm good.

BALDWIN: So I don't know how much scrambling really Bernie Sanders is doing today, though, because he's just sort of like - he's finished with his rallies. Sitting back.

SANDERS: Yes. Yes.

BALDWIN: How's he spending his day?

SANDERS: You know, we stopped by our Des Moines HQ today and he rallied the troops there. We had a great group of nurses and folks from out of town that have come in to volunteer. And he thanked everybody for their support, for canvassing, then asked them to kindly get back to work.

BALDWIN: You're not finished yet.

SANDERS: We're not done yet. Of course not. He took questions from a couple people. And then we got back on our Bernie bus. And he might stop by an office near you, but there's nothing right on his schedule today.

BALDWIN: OK.

SANDERS: So I think today, just a little relaxing and we're going to be - get ready for our party tonight.

BALDWIN: Get ready for the party. Get ready to celebrate.

SANDERS: Yes.

BALDWIN: Before you celebrate though, I think one interesting point - I know you've been asked over and over about the young vote and how will that translate, really, really come out. You know, we noticed it was January 3rd from 2008 which is when Iowa caucuses were held then and the schools were out then. Kids were still out from the winter break. And I'm wondering if that's something you're worried about because, you know, it's deeper into - into, what are we now in, wherever -

SANDERS: It's February. It's February. February 1.

BALDWIN: Thank you. Thank you. Losing - there we go, we're in February now. And people are in school. It's a different - it's a different situation. So are you nervous about that?

SANDERS: No, we're not nervous at all. But there are tons of young people, yes, who are not in Iowa right now, who are not at home, who are out at school, but there's still lots of young people that are in school, that are here in Iowa, that are going to come out and caucus for Bernie tonight. But it's not just young people.

BALDWIN: But - but are you worried about lower turnout than - than we saw in 2008?

[14:30:00] SANDERS: No, I mean I think - we think that if voter turnout is high, which we think it will be, that we will be successful tonight. But it's not just young people. You know, there are lots of other unlikely caucus goers that aren't just young people. There are, you know, they're older individuals, they're young professionals, folks that just haven't been