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Examining the Iowa Caucuses. Aired 15-15:30p ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:04]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: -- and open their caucuses to select their presidential nominees.

And, yes, while Donald Trump leads the polls for Republicans, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, they're pushing very, very hard for every non-Trump vote. A solid showing here could elevate either of them to become the favorite Trump alternative.

And just a reminder. We're watching and waiting to see Donald Trump make his final push to Iowans in Cedar Rapids.

You know her. She's Sarah Palin. She's stepped out and endorsed week before last and she's the one who is introducing him at this event in Cedar Rapids. But as soon as we see Mr. Trump, we will take a piece of that live.

With me now, Donald Trump surrogate Jeff DeWit, who is state treasurer of Arizona.

Jeff DeWit, nice to see you, sir.

JEFF DEWIT, ARIZONA STATE TREASURER: Thanks, Brooke. Great to be here. Thank you.

BALDWIN: So, I know that Donald Trump has said, yes, I have been involved in elections, although this is his first. He said this morning he's nervous. I didn't think Donald Trump got nervous, Jeff.

DEWIT: It's been a long time coming.

And I will say, I don't think many things would get him nervous. But, you know, it's a lot of work. A lot of things have led up to this. But we're very excited. I think it's an excited nervous, because we're going to see some positive results tonight. Everything we're seeing is great. All the feedback we're getting, the Trump team is hearing very good things.

So this is a chance for America to stand up and say they want to do things different and they want to elect a businessperson instead of a politician, and tonight we think they're going to do that.

BALDWIN: When you look at some of the headlines here this morning, "USA Today," "Is Trump For Real?" CNN.com, "The Moment of Truth for Donald Trump." Jeff, what if he doesn't win Iowa tonight?

DEWIT: If he doesn't win Iowa, it's really not the end of the world or anything, because we're leading so far in New Hampshire by so much, and South Carolina. So we're going to go on to the next states and do very well.

However, obviously, for the other candidates, this is the final stand for many of them here. And when Donald Trump does win tonight, this could be the end of the road for a few or many of the other candidates. And while for us, it's not really a setback. For almost anybody else, it will be.

BALDWIN: Riddle me this, because this is something that Donald Trump told ABC on "This Week." He said that unlike Ted Cruz, quoting Mr. Trump, "I have a heart. I will enact universal health coverage."

What kind of universal health care coverage is he talking about, Jeff? Isn't that something we would hear Bernie Sanders say?

DEWIT: No, not at all.

What Mr. Trump is saying is -- and keep in mind, for years now, he has said we're going to repeal Obamacare. When Mr. Cruz comes out and says that that's not the case, he hasn't listened to what Mr. Trump has said everywhere he's gone. We are going to repeal Obamacare.

What Mr. Trump has said is he has talked about working with everyone on a replacement for it that actually makes sense and works across state lines, works in the business perspective. But Obamacare is gone under a Trump presidency. That's one of the biggest fallacies, is what Mr. Cruz is trying to do in really a last-ditch effort to save his poll numbers.

BALDWIN: OK. I got that you're putting it on Cruz, but again I go back to the fact that Mr. Trump was talking about universal health coverage. And then when he was asked by George Stephanopoulos how he would do this, he said he would work with the hospitals and the doctors to pay for it.

The hospitals and the doctors. Do you have more specifics that he didn't share?

DEWIT: No, I don't have more specifics than that.

But I can say there's a difference between the way politicians get things done and the way businesspeople get things done. And the way businesspeople get things done is they get everybody in a room and they work on coming up with a better idea. They take input and do things that way.

So, whereas the politicians just do what's politically, you know, easy, and that's where nothing gets done. So, again, that's what we're electing tonight is a businessman, one of the most successful businesspeople our country has ever produced who can get things done, who is very much a doer, not a talker. That's what we will see happen in Washington, is we're going to get everyone together and do things differently. And Obamacare's gone with Mr. Trump.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I get it, he's a businessman, not a politician. That's what we have heard time and time again from team Trump. We will see if it translates into votes at the caucuses tonight in Iowa.

Jeff DeWit, thank you for your time.

And keep in mind we're also watching and waiting to see Donald Trump speak his final pitch to caucus-goers. We will take that live any moment now, again, Sarah Palin teeing up Mr. Trump.

What are the top three things we should all be watching for this evening? You know what, I have found the best man to answer that. CNN's political director, David Chalian, is joining me with that.

So, when you're thinking of all -- we have actually narrowed it down to three as we're watching and waiting for Donald Trump. Let's begin with him, David. What are you looking from him tonight?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: This is the question you raised just a couple minutes ago that I'm looking to get answered.

[15:05:03]

I think it is the question, Brooke, of the last eight months since he got into this race. Can he translate huge crowds, leads in the polls to voters showing up to commit to him when he's not there to be the draw? That to me is a critical question we are going to get answered tonight. I think the answer to it is going to have major ramifications as this race proceeds beyond Iowa.

So, that's the first thing I'm looking for tonight. A part of that is the second item is the evangelical vote on the Republican side. That is one of the first things I'm going to look for when those entrance polls come out to see, is the overall turnout of evangelicals up or down from it was in 2008 and 2012, which really helped fuel the Huckabee and Santorum victories in Iowa?

That would be good for Ted Cruz. If it's up at those levels or above, that might be really good. That's his base. If we see that turnout among evangelicals are a little bit lower or we see Rubio getting enough of a slice of them, Carson getting enough of a slice, Trump getting enough of a slice, that it's not a big enough pot for Ted Cruz to ride to victory, the way Huckabee or Santorum did in years past, that's going to be a key indicator tonight as well.

BALDWIN: OK, what's number three? That was evangelicals. Then we talked Trump. Did I miss -- sorry. I'm counting with you.

CHALIAN: No, number three, I'm going to switch to the Democratic said, because on the Democratic side, what I am looking for tonight is -- well, I'm looking for two things.

I'm looking to see if indeed overall turnout is bigger than we anticipate. Right now, if you talk to folks inside the Clinton campaign, they think it's going to be somewhere between 2004 levels and 2008 levels. Nobody anticipates to recreate the Barack Obama moment of 2008.

But if you're looking at about 160,000 to 170,000 Democrats showing up, that's the breaking point. Anything less than that, the Clinton campaign feels pretty safe. Anything north of that number, overall turnout for Democrats, the Sanders campaign is going to start feeling really good that they have brought new people into the process.

And then, of course, we're all waiting to see how Hillary Clinton deals with the results tonight. Is she able to sort of shake off the ghosts of 2008, not be upended by sort of the outside liberal insurgent in the party who sort of tried to dethrone her establishment position, or does she indeed change the narrative and shows that she can win where she didn't win before and that she's running a different kind of campaign this time around? That's a big question about Hillary Clinton's candidacy.

BALDWIN: You say ghosts. Hilary Rosen was on with me just a second ago saying PTSD from '08, it's a real thing, it exists in terms of these campaigns. They really want to push through that.

David Chalian, thank you so much.

Let's broaden this out. What does tonight mean going forward in this race?

Let's bring in Bob Beckel, a Democratic strategist who managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign, and Ana Navarro here with me, a Republican strategist who is a friend of Marco Rubio and a supporter of Jeb Bush.

Good to see you.

Bob, I'm sad you're not with us in Iowa, but we will deal with that.

BOB BECKEL, FORMER U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: So am I.

BALDWIN: Let me just begin with you.

As David Chalian just sort of ended talking about Dems and turnout and Hillary Clinton, let's play the what if game. Because Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are so totally neck and neck, what happens if Hillary Clinton loses tonight?

BECKEL: Well, she comes in to New Hampshire and probably will lose there, and then the question is, do black voters particularly in South Carolina, the next stop, stick with Clinton with the numbers they're showing in the polls?

And I'm not sure -- the last time that happened was Barack Obama. Barack Obama is black. They switched all the way around and they went to Obama. But I think the real key here is everybody talks about turnout, turnout, turnout. Well, what kind of turnout? My question about what I look forward tonight is evangelical votes in

the western part of the state, how many of those are Trump getting? It's amazing to me Trump is getting any of them. Young voters, that is critical to Trump and it's critical to Sanders. That's going to be a critical component of all this.

So I think there will be three tickets punched for the Republicans out of Iowa, probably Trump, Cruz and Rubio. And then you get to New Hampshire, you may add a fourth into that, Christie or Kasich, but it's going to get winnowed down very quickly.

BALDWIN: You say maybe Trump, Cruz, Rubio.

Ana Navarro, what if Trump doesn't win?

ANA NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think he'd go into DEFCON 5.

Something we have seen about Donald Trump is that he wears his emotions on his sleeves. Right? If he doesn't win, I think -- he will -- watch him berate Iowans today and say, what were you guys thinking? You didn't choose me. I'm sad you didn't choose me.

I think he would go into New Hampshire and, you know, frankly burn Ted Cruz in effigy. I think he would go nuclear on Ted Cruz and just, you know, go all out, no boundaries. Not that he's had many boundaries until now, but I think we would see, you know, Donald Trump fighting on all cylinders.

BALDWIN: What about Marco Rubio? Just staying with you. People are saying, yes, it could be a strong third, but I'm hearing from other folks, maybe even a second, depending on who comes out tonight. How does this look for him moving forward?

[15:10:10]

NAVARRO: There's no doubt that if Marco were to place second in Iowa, it would be a huge night for him. It would be a very big victory.

It would be a lot of momentum going into New Hampshire and going on from here. If he places a close third, I think it's, you know, less of a victory. It's still a good thing. If he places a far third, then, you know, it's not going to be that big of a story. We're going to have to wait and see.

I think that, you know, definitely Marco goes on to New Hampshire and he goes on to South Carolina. Marco is one of those candidates that has ground troops and an operation going in South Carolina, as does Jeb Bush in the establishment lane. Kasich and Christie have nothing going on in South Carolina.

BALDWIN: I want to continue this conversation.

Bob, I'm coming back to you in Washington.

But let's dip in to Donald Trump speaking now, final push, Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (JOINED IN PROGRESS)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been so pleasurable.

I have seen so many people. I have gotten to know so many people. We have a movement. And Sarah alluded to it. But we have a movement going on. Whether we go to Dallas, we had 21,000 people in the Mavericks Arena, 35,000 people in Mobile, Alabama, 12,000 people the other night in Massachusetts.

No matter where we go, we have incredible, incredible crowds that truly love this country. And we are, in fact, going to take it back. You know, our theme is make America great again. It's very simple. It's very simple. And we're going to make America great again.

Now, you have to stick up for your rights in life. We were talking about this before with a group. And I wanted to debate so badly the other night. I wanted to go back. But when people don't treat you properly, just like when they don't treat our country properly, when Iran, after all we did with the $150 billion -- can you believe that?

I can't even think about it, Iran, the deal we made. And then they capture our sailors, they put guns to their head, they make them sit in a begging position with their hands up. And the only reason they released them is because they wanted their $150 billion. I mean, let's not kid ourselves.

We have to develop and we have to get respect back for this country. We are not respected anymore. We have had the leadership that's grossly incompetent. And it can't go on any longer. This is why on June 16, I said I'm running. We're going to do something that's going to be so amazing. And we are going to make our country great again.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

BALDWIN: All right, Donald Trump on the trail, Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Again, caucuses open four hours from now. These are these candidates' closing arguments to get the votes tonight, get the big mo' coming out of Iowa and looking ahead to New Hampshire.

Bob Beckel, quickly to you, what could be the biggest surprise? What would blow your mind coming out of Iowa tonight?

BECKEL: Marco Rubio coming in second. I think Iowa breaks link in a lot of cases. People start getting very serious about them over the weekend.

(CROSSTALK)

BECKEL: And the indications are that Rubio's picked up a lot of steam.

Let's remember the last two times that happened, Rick Santorum came from nowhere to take that. I would say that. The other thing is, where does Martin O'Malley's vote go? He won't win any delegates. Because of the Democratic system, they have to go to Sanders' people or Clinton's people to caucus. And I would be curious to see where that is -- 5 percent is 5 percent, but in a close race, it's a lot.

BALDWIN: Bob Beckel, thank you, sir. Ana Navarro, thank you.

Moving on, Sarah Palin raising questions about the strategy of the Ted Cruz campaign to send out controversial mailers to voters here in Iowa. My next guest says Cruz's move is downright fraudulent.

And Hillary Clinton's campaign says Bernie Sanders is running the most negative campaign of all time. A Sanders surrogate calls that ridiculous. The Clinton campaign joins me live to respond.

I'm Brooke Baldwin live in Des Moines. Special coverage continues next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:18:19]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: So I get a little notice, in case you see the security guys. We have wonderful security guys. They said, Mr. Trump, there may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience.

So, if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. OK. Just knock the hell -- I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees, I promise.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Oh, Donald Trump there. Just turned that around for you. He's speaking, his final pitch to caucus-goers here in Iowa. These candidates, they have busy zigzagging the state, making their final pitches before, of course, caucusing tonight here in the Hawkeye State.

But one 11th-hour pitch, a mailer sent by Senator Ted Cruz, is being met with criticism and really even anger here. This mailer, we have a picture of it for you, with the words in the tip top in bold red print, voting violation, there it is, issued report card, report card- like grades, comparing the voting participation of recipients to their neighbors.

It offered a chance to improve their score if they head to a caucus tonight.

CNN political commentator Ryan Lizza joins me now. He just wrote about this in "The New Yorker," his piece entitled "Ted Cruz's Iowa Mailers are More Fraudulent Than Everyone Thinks."

Ruh-roh. So, listen, mailers are nothing new, social pressure is nothing new as a tactic from of these campaigns, but this is different. Tell me why?

RYAN LIZZA, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Yes. I think there's a way to do these mailers. And other campaigns have done them. The Rubio campaign did one. But they stepped on three land mines here.

BALDWIN: Tell me why.

LIZZA: One, as you saw, the voting violation. The secretary of state of Iowa has come out and said this looks like an official communication or it's disguised to look like an official communication from the state and you shouldn't do that.

[15:20:05]

BALDWIN: Since it's not.

LIZZA: Now, look, it does say paid for by Cruz for president. So I think the Cruz campaign has a good argument that, hey, wait a second. Nobody could think this is from...

BALDWIN: Read the fine print.

LIZZA: Yes, exactly.

The second thing, though, is people are worked up about their private information being included. Say I sent this to you. Right? Your name's on the top. But then it has a list your neighbors and their alleged scores and it's saying, Brooke, get to that caucus because I want you to beat the score of your neighbor down the street.

The names of the neighbors are real. And so the people I called who are listed on some of these, they were really worked up. Like, why is the Cruz campaign sending my name and an alleged failing score to John down the street?

So it's a privacy issue. And then the third thing is the scores themselves, which is the thing that I reported on yesterday and found out, seem to be fraudulent.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: It's not a thing?

LIZZA: It's not a thing. You could -- theoretically, I could find out whether you participated in the last four elections here in Iowa. I can get that information from the secretary of state. It's not public, but the secretary of state does license that information to campaigns who use it for their turnout stuff.

But I had someone check that voter file on several names. And what they told me is that the scores had -- bore no resemblance to the actual voting history of these people. So they just made up the numbers. I asked the Cruz campaign to say what's your methodology, how did you get these numbers? And they refused to tell me how they did it.

BALDWIN: The Trump campaign is weighing in on this. Sarah Palin talked to Jake Tapper about this mailer issue. This is what Sarah Palin told Tapper.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARAH PALIN (R), FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: You know what I have been concerned about in terms of this process of the caucus? You're making a good point that it is kind of difficult. And we hear that weather may move in and make that kind of a cumbersome situation for people.

Maybe they can't get to the caucus. What I have been concerned about is what the Cruz campaign has done to previous voters, potential voters, who weren't able to make it to a caucus, maybe because this is a difficult process.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: You mean that literature...

(CROSSTALK)

PALIN: Then they were shamed, they and their neighbors being sent report cards, saying, you know, you got an F because you didn't vote. You didn't do what we think you should have done.

That to me is very reflective of politicians thinking that they know best or that they know the intricacies of your life so they can make decisions for you. So that's what I have been concerned about with this whole caucus process.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So that was Sarah Palin. Again, you have said and we have seen the Ted Cruz camp, they're not apologizing for this. But bottom line, are Iowans there inundated? The airwaves are saturated. They're getting all kinds of stuff in the mail. Do you really think this could affect tonight?

LIZZA: Maybe at the margins. That's a good question.

I think of voters do say that they make up their mind in the final days. There was one person who online said he was only sort of -- he wasn't sure who he was going to vote for. He was sort of leaning for Rubio, but when he got this mailer, it made him so mad, that he said he's definitely going to the caucus to caucus for Rubio.

But it's going to be a close race. We all know that from the polls. And so these things -- every little thing matters. Right?

BALDWIN: Every little thing matters today.

Ryan Lizza, thanks for reporting on it.

LIZZA: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Thank you very much.

Coming up next, we're going to talk about the process here in Iowa, the caucuses tonight. We will explain how, you know, it can be confusing. Listen, it's different for Republicans and Democrats. We're going to explain it all for you. Also ahead, the votes haven't even of course been cast, but Ohio

Governor John Kasich is already in New Hampshire. Remember, we go Iowa, then we had to New Hampshire for the primary next week. And he's not alone. And, Congressman, we're going to talk about John Kasich coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:28:12]

BALDWIN: Just about the bottom of the hour. You're watching CNN's special coverage here live from Des Moines in front of the beautiful statehouse. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you for being with me on this 1st of February.

A lot of states hold a traditional primary. Walk up to the voting machine. Make a choice. Press the button. Done. But here in Iowa, they have caucuses. These are the communal events in schools, gyms, libraries, church basement, where neighbors can listen to one another and make those last-minute pitches.

Let me bring David Yepsen. He's the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

You spent 34 years at "The Des Moines Register," so you know a thing or two about politics here in the Hawkeye State. And I think it's just so important to explain it's totally different if you're walking into these caucuses tonight if you're a Republican vs. a Democrat.

For a Republican, you make your choice, done. For a Democrat, it's a totally different story. I want you to explain that.

DAVID YEPSEN, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY: Well, Democrats go into the room. They break into preference groups. Here's all the Hillary Clinton people, the Bernie Sanders people, the Martin O'Malley people, and they add it up.

And you have -- a candidate has to have 15 percent of the total in order to qualify for any delegates.

BALDWIN: That's viability, 15 percent.

YEPSEN: That's called viability. If a candidate is declared nonviable, his or her people have to go with some group that is viable.

The purpose of it is to nominate a candidate. And so you have to start winnowing the field down. And that's how Democrats will decide who gets the most delegates out of that caucus to the county convention.

BALDWIN: All right, so if you walk in, you're a Bernie person, you're a Hillary person, OK. But if you're a Martin O'Malley person and eventually it's announced that Martin O'Malley doesn't reach viability, then comes the second choice.

YEPSEN: Right. And I think there will be some that go either way.

BALDWIN: I'm hearing it's neck and neck for either of them..

YEPSEN: Yes.

I mean, I think -- I think O'Malley people really like their candidate, and they -- but they see some flaws in Sanders or Clinton. And so after the -- if they're declared nonviable, I think you will see some of them go both ways.

BALDWIN: But that's why second place matters so much here in Iowa...

YEPSEN: Oh, absolutely. Absolutely.

BALDWIN: ... for Democrats.

And, you know, adding to that, as you mentioned --