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No Clear Winner on Either Side in Iowa; Media Kept in Dark on Trump Iowa Ground Game; O'Malley Could be Most Important Democrat in Race; WHO Warning on Zika Virus; Challenges Ahead for Aung San Suu Kyi's Pro Democracy Party in Myanmar; Democrats, Republicans Rally Before Iowa Caucuses; Weather Could Affect Iowa Caucus Turnout; What Large Cargo Ships Between U.S., China Means for Trade; Boko Haram Attacks Nairobi Village; Popular Bands Rally with Sanders. Aired 2-3a ET
Aired February 01, 2016 - 02:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:00:20] ERROL BARNETT, CNN ANCHOR: A welcome to our viewers here in the United States and those of you tuned in all over the world. We have special election coverage for you today. I'm Errol Barnett, with you for the next few hours. Thanks so much for kicking off your week with me.
It may be the dead of winter in the U.S. state of Iowa but the U.S. presidential race there is in a dead heat. The Iowa caucuses are just hours away. This is the first voting in the 2016 nominating process.
In the latest poll, Donald Trump has a slight lead over chief Republican rival, Ted Cruz. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are polling neck-and-neck meanwhile. There is no clear winner on either side and the candidates are trying hard right now to change that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, (I), VERMONT & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Is that, if tomorrow night there is a large turnout in caucuses all over the state, I believe we will win.
HILLARY CLINTON, (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: I want you know what I will do as your president. I want you to hold me accountable for delivering for you. I don't want to over promise and under deliver. I'd rather under promise and over deliver.
SEN. TED CRUZ, (R), TEXAS & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I'm elected president, let me tell you what I intend to do on the first day in office. The first thing I intend to do is rescind every single illegal and unconstitutional executive action taken by this president.
(CHEERING)
DONALD TRUMP, (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & CEO, TRUMP ORGANIZATION: By far, the Trump voter, the Trump person, is the most loyal. By far. They say, Trump can do practically anything and they are still voting for him. They are going to still caucus for him.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARNETT: Now, Trump's loyal supporters keep up a strong word-of-mouth campaign right now. But his grassroots push for votes in Iowa is a bit mysterious.
Watch here as Sarah Murray reports the Trump campaign has kept the media in the dark when it comes to its ground game there in Iowa.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We drove 1,000 miles on Monday to be here to make a difference.
SARAH MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (voice-over): Ted Cruz's ground game --
(CHEERING)
-- and Donald Trump's enthusiastic crowds are finally put to the test. After months of delivering stump speeches, trekking across Iowa, and lobbing attacks, inevitably, it all comes down to who shows up.
TRUMP: It all doesn't matter if you don't caucus on Monday.
CRUZ: If everyone in this room brings nine additional people to caucus on Monday night, we will win the Iowa caucus us.
MURRAY: Cruz has built a ground gain that's unrivalled in Iowa. More than 800 volunteers have passed through Camp Cruz, Spartan, Des Moines dormitories housing out of state supporters.
CRUZ: He's from Texas.
(CHEERING)
MURRAY: Volunteers like Roberto Gonzalez of leak city Texas are putting in 12-hour days phone banking and door knocking for Cruz.
ROBERTO GONZALEZ, CRUZ CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: The ground game being here in the phone banks and going out and block walking is the most important thing because we are talking 1,000 votes can make or break somebody here.
MURRAY: At the Trump campaign, we get a different reception. His staff as has repeatedly declined to have it their headquarters or speak to the volunteers working there. When we stopped by a Trump campaign call center we were kicked off the property.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We have been told to turn all media away. We have no comment on any matter.
MURRAY: Team Trump is secretive about its ground operation. Even if his supporters aren't hearing from the campaign, they are still inundated with Trump.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Not cold calling but I get his Twitters and Facebook and notifications. My sister is a big supporter in Colorado.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She is posting everything to Facebook all the time.
(CROSSTALK)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She is burning my phone up.
MURRAY: Trump sticking to his unconventional playbook until the end.
(on camera): Do you want to be in there?
(voice-over): Inviting children to play on his private jet and tapping his daughter, Ivanka, for a glossy video on how to caucus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
IVANKA TRUMP, DAUGHTER OF DONALD TRUMP: I'm Ivanka Trump, and I'm excited to tell you how to caucus for my father, Donald J. Trump, on February 1st.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(CHEERING)
MURRAY: With crowds and momentum on his side, Trump may not even need a traditional turnout operation to win.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BARNETT: CNN politically commentator, Ben Ferguson, is a conservative talk radio host, and he joins us from Dallas to discuss the race among Republicans.
Ben, great to see you.
Trump told CNN he does not have to win Iowa because he is doing well with so many groups in so many places. Surprising from a guy who tells his supporters they will be tired of winning. Does he have reason to be nervous?
[02:05:00] BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think there is certainly a reason to be nervous. That is because Iowa voters love to mess with pollsters. We have known that for many years. People come out of nowhere. If you don't believe me, Rick Santorum was down by double digit five days out in Iowa and then he was able to win over a decent margin over Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich rich and others. That's a point -- Iowa voters don't like to be told what they are supposed to do. They like to keep thing a little bit exciting. They don't like to be influenced. They take a lot of pride in this caucus. I think it's smart for Trump to be cautious here. He has said I'm a winner and I den like losers and I don't like failure and if you want a winner vote for me. This caucus can certainly turn this campaign upside down for him. I'm sure he is hoping they will have a victory.
BARNETT: On a serious note, Trump is being sued for sex discrimination, this by a former field organizer there in Iowa. She basically says men doing the same job were paid more and allowed to speak at rallies. How problematic could this be?
FERGUSON: I actually don't look at this with a whole lot of concern mainly because his national spokesperson is a woman, for goodness sakes. I mean there are certain times really close to elections that I look at things as a little bit of disgruntled employees. I don't believe this is going to affect him in any major way. I think something where any campaign is susceptible to anybody that's not happy, suing you for their own personal headlines. I just don't think as of right now, unless there is some video or paper trail making it abundantly clear that the Trump campaign is somehow purposely putting woman at the back of the campaign office and not allowing them up front, which has not been the case with his national spokeswoman, I don't think this is going to be a big deal.
BARNETT: And previously any controversy has been through -- hasn't touched --
(CROSSTALK)
FERGUSON: Hasn't hurt him at all. Remember, this weekend, he even said I don't have to campaign anymore, this is a waste of time. He also said people in Iowa were stupid. Now he is still leading in this last poll going into Election Day.
BARNETT: You talk about Iowa as a surprise. What about Marco Rubio, with 15 percent support he is the highest polling establishment candidate, and a back up choice. What do you expect from his supporters?
FERGUSON: See the numbers. It was an interesting poll, who is your first choice? For second choice? For second choice, I think is -- Trump only had single digits. When people are caucuses, Marco Rubio might do well in that situation. Remember, this is not the same as just walking in and voting and walking out. People are hearing from supporters of each candidate talk and why you should support them and why you should come to their side. This is very much a last-minute decision for Iowa voters. And that's of the unique things about a caucus that's different from many people who vote, walk into a booth, walk in, push buttons, they are out and it's done. Completely different in Iowa. That could certainly help Marco Rubio with that many people. And also Cruz. They are a lot of people's second choice. Whereas Donald Trump, his numbers are what they are. They are not going to go up much but at the same time they might not go down much either. And that might be enough for him to, you know, get that first-place win.
BARNETT: Things definitely heating up in what is a freezing Iowa today.
(LAUGHTER)
Ben Ferguson, nice to chat with you, our CNN political commentator. Thanks for your time.
FERGUSON: Thanks, man.
BARNETT: Ted Cruz is under fire over a controversial mailer sent to voters warning they have committed, quote, "voting violations." I use that quote because the mailer gave the recipient poor grades based on their voting history and claimed they could improve their scores by voting in the caucuses. Iowa's secretary of state is blasting the Cruz campaign, saying there is no such thing as a "voting violation." But Cruz says he won't apologize for using every tool he can to get Iowans to of the polls.
Meanwhile, lead Democratic candidates said they want more debates. The MSNBC network says it will hold a debate on February 4th in New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton and Martin O'Malley are expected to attend. They will go head to head a few days before the New Hampshire primary on February 9th. They have taken part in four debates plus a town hall.
While debates may sway undecided voters, money also talks, doesn't it? Federal election records reveal billionaire, George Soros, has given $6 million to a super PAC backing Hillary Clinton. That super PAC, Priorities USA, says it raised $50 million through January and has $42 million more in pledges. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders' campaign says he has raised more than $20 million in January alone. That money coming from more than 700,000 individual donors. Sanders has insisted he won't rely on super PACs.
[02:10:30] Now Democratic contender, Martin O'Malley, heads into the caucuses with single-digit support in the latest Iowa poll. But he could be the most important Democrat in this tight presidential race.
CNN's Jeff Zeleny explains.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MARTIN O'MALLEY, (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & FORMER MARYLAND GOVERNOR: Fight for viability and fight for the country you carry in your heart.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, all eyes are on Martin O'Malley.
O'MALLEY: There is no place on the planet that plays a greater role in determining the trajectory this race than here in Iowa.
ZELENY: He is still running a distant third, but in the quirky rules of the caucuses, he is a potential kingmaker. In places where he falls under 15 percent, his voters will be asked to pick their second choice, which could tip the scales for Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.
(on camera): Some of your voters, Governor, are viewed as of the most important voters in Iowa.
O'MALLEY: Because of their discernible voting practices.
(LAUGHTER)
ZELENY: If they're not viable in some precincts across this state, do you urge them to follow their own instincts or sway them one way another.
O'MALLEY: I urge them to hold strong and fight for viability. That's what I encourage people to do.
ZELENY (voice-over): In Iowa, the second choice can be nearly as important as the first. It helped propel Barack Obama to victory here eight years ago.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If I'm not your first choice, make me your second choice.
ZELENY: The rules are different for Republicans. Their voters don't have to pick a second choice on Monday night. But the Democratic race is deadlocked.
(CROSSTALK)
ZELENY: Tom Henderson, the Democrat chairman in the largest county, is an O'Malley supporter. He said one of the mysteries about the Sanders/Clinton fight is where O'Malley's supporters will go.
(on camera): O'Malley supporters, is their second choice Sanders or Clinton?
TOM HENDERSON, DEMOCRATIC CHAIRMAN: We don't know.
ZELENY (voice-over): Today in Iowa, O'Malley urged voters to deliver a surprise.
O'MALLEY: I know you feel like you have a birth right on caucus night of upsetting and apple cart and surprising the pollsters and the pundits. That's what I need to you do now.
ZELENY: O'Malley's campaign is running out of money and time. But for at least another day, he's the center of attention.
(on camera): How well do you have to do here, Governor?
O'MALLEY: I don't know. I have to beat expectations. Fortunately, the national press has kept those low for me. I don't know.
ZELENY: Do you feel like a king right now?
O'MALLEY: No, I feel like a candidate for president of the United States and the only one that has a track record of being able to bring people together and get things done. Those are two things neither of my opponents can say.
ZELENY (voice-over): Jeff Zeleny, CNN, Johnston, Iowa.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BARNETT: Joining me now to discuss the battle among Democrats, CNN political commentator, Peter Beinart.
Peter, great to see you.
A lot of points to address here. Overall, with Clinton and Sanders in a statistical tie and with a blizzard watch in effect for Iowa, how big is the enthusiasm among Sanders supporters? Could it make a difference here?
PETER BEINART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It's very important. Sanders has had an advantage in terms of enthusiasm throughout the race. What we don't know is whether or not he will be able to translate that into turnout tomorrow, whether he had the organizational capacity to do that the way Barack Obama did because many of his support remembers young people, people less reliable in turning out. Obama was able to bring them to the follows and get a huge turnout where a lot of new voters who voted for him. We don't know whether Sanders can pull that off and the weather will make it harder.
BARNETT: We had another twist this weekend. On Friday, the State Department reported 22 of Hillary's e-mails from when she was secretary of state would not be released because they are, in fact, top secret. Sanders said this is a serious issue, slightly different when he said he didn't care about her e-mails. Will that tip the scales?
BEINART: I don't think Democrats don't care as much about this as the Republicans do. To the degree that it reinforces some of the concerns that even some Democrats may have over Hillary Clinton's honesty, it could be an advantage for Sanders. It's hard to tell.
BARNETT: Now unlike for Republicans, Democrats who do not get at least 15 percent support during this caucus, they have to pledge their votes to another candidate. All expectations are that Governor Martin O'Malley will be in that position. Do you think Clinton or Sanders will win his support in the end?
BEINART: If O'Malley endorses someone, I would imagine it's more likely to be Hillary Clinton. Just because she is more likely to be the event nominee and she is more likely to be able to do things for him, whether it's retire his campaign debt or help him in some other way. I think that Sanders is less -- is not in as much of a position to trade favors with Martin O'Malley. I'd be surprised if O'Malley ends up endorsing Sanders.
[02:15:25] BARNETT: Another interesting note, Sanders raised $20 million in January alone, and mostly from small donations. His fund- raising pace has picked up dramatically as well. So might we see a marathon fight for the nomination just like we did between Obama versus Clinton back in 2008? BEINART: Yeah, I think so. I think Sanders will have the financial
ability to compete. Oftentimes, candidates drop out because they don't have the money, but Sanders' base of small donors, many of whom could still give more since they have not maxed out, given the maximum amount. I think he could be better funded than Hillary Clinton for quite a long time throughout this race. It's also much cheaper to raise money the way he is doing it. You don't have to put on big fundraisers. You know, it's done through your website for virtually no money. I think, financially, Sanders is in a strong position.
BARNETT: So those expecting the result of Iowa to close it out for the Democrats, don't hold your breath. We could be in for another long fight.
Peter Beinart, always great to get your insight, a CNN political commentator. Thanks for your time.
BEINART: My pleasure.
BARNETT: I've got much more news for you. Still to come, health officials warn there could be four million new Zika Virus infections this year alone and there is no vaccine yet. But is that about to change? Details on that after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(SPORTS)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:20:38] BARNETT: The first working sessions at the Syrian peace talks are set to begin Monday in Geneva. The U.N. envoy met with representatives of the main opposition group on Sunday. They want an end to air strikes, the release of prisoners, and access to humanitarian said.
Those talks come against the backdrop of yet another deadly attack in Syria. ISIS reportedly claimed responsibility for bombings that at least 45 people near a holy shrine. A car bomb detonated at a bus station. Two suicide bombers targeted on lookers and medics who arrived at the scene.
The World Health Organization is holding an emergency meeting on in Geneva Monday to discuss the Zika Virus outbreak. Carried by mosquitoes, the disease has been spreading quickly through the Americas. The WHO warns there could be as many as four million new infections this year. There is no treatment for it.
CNN's Nic Robertson talked to the WHO's deputy director-general.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRUCE AYLWARD, DEPUTY DIRECTOR-GENERAL, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: Part of our job just like on Ebola is getting the international community together, getting consensus, picking out the best possible candidates, getting the money behind that and trial designs and moving those forward and is exactly the role.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: And time frame to where we are at today to a vaccine, do you think?
AYLWARD: Probably the earliest would -- again, we have heard a few different things. We could probably have something in a phase-one trail in four to six months and then probably have something available in a year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARNETT: Nic Robertson will join us live next hour with the latest on those talks do. Stay tuned for that.
In the meantime, David McKenzie is in Uganda. This is where the Zika Virus was first detected almost 70 years ago. He joins us now from what's known as the Zika Forest.
David, this is intriguing. Under what circumstances was the Zika Virus first reported there?
DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Certainly, it has been a long time, as you described, Errol, that this virus was identified here in the Zika Forest in Uganda by U.S. military researchers primarily. They were here to look at yellow fever, which at the time was extremely dangerous, still is, a viral disease. This is where they found Zika, almost accidentally. More than 60 years it took before there was a significant outbreak amongst a human population in Micronesia. Now, scientists are trying to figure out how it got there, whether it was a different strain, particularly from the Ugandan side, because here in Uganda, in these forests, Zika primarily focuses on attacking monkeys and other animals, and it's not widespread in the human population. That's part of the reason why it wasn't heavily researched for a long time because only one in five people got sick from it, up until now, and certainly it was tricky to move through the human population. They believe there has been an evolution of the virus, particularly the Asian strain, and that may be why this virus has exploded, as the WHO calls it, onto the South American continent -- Errol?
BARNETT: David, considering all of that, why haven't we seen the spread of Zika there, like we are seeing right now in South America?
MCKENZIE: It is a different strain here. That's particularly important. The African strain, they believe -- again, this is a very under researched virus. It could generally be quite mild. The different strain that exists here doesn't get into the human population very easy. They just had a handful of cases as I described. But the researchers we're talking to here, who are funded by the CDC in the U.S. to look at viruses all the time, say they need more funding to get at the root causes of these viruses and try to prevent it getting to a situation where you have this long period of time, almost in latent phase in terms of our knowledge, and then it suddenly explodes and potentially it's too late -- Errol?
BARNETT: Very interesting stuff. David McKenzie live for us in the Zika Forest where it is just past
10:24 in the morning there. David, thank you.
Now, it is a historic day for the country of Myanmar. Lawmakers from Aung San Suu Kyi's pro democracy party have taken their seats in the new parliament. The National League for Democracy has the majority after a landslide victory in November's elections. But despite the big win, challenges lie ahead for what is still an opposition party in many critical ways.
For on that, let's go to CNN's Saima Mohsin, joining us live from Bangkok.
Saima, it has taken 26 years to get to this day. Aung San Suu Kyi was put under house arrest when she won back in 1990. She has become an icon of democracy since then. Now what can we expect from her in parliament?
[02:25:25] SAIMA MOHSIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Incredibly high expectations, as you just said, Errol. She is a Nobel Peace Prize winner. There are a lot of expectations on her. But a lot of people wondering who is going to step up to the plate once parliament starts in session for real. Today we saw the first couple of hours of particle men they elected their speaker of the House in the lower house. There is a rest day tomorrow, and then the upper house meets on Wednesday. Is it going to be the pragmatic politician that Aung San Suu Kyi has learned to become or the passionate Nobel Peace Prize laureate that has worked so hard for political freedom, for human rights as well? And of course human rights whilst pointing out the high expectations on her, the burden of responsibility is on her and the NLD, 114 former political prisoners make up this parliament. Will they now speak up for other human rights abuses in Myanmar and the highly discriminated against and marginalized Rohingya population -- Errol?
BARNETT: How likely is this Nobel Prize laureate to address the alleged human rights abuses there?
MOHSIN: To a certain extent, her hands are tied. Yes, they have the majority of parliament in both the lower and upper house. But 25 percent of those seats are still held by the military. Constitutionally, Aung San Suu Kyi cannot be president because of the constitutional amendment by the military before these elections saying that if you have children that hold foreign passports you cannot be president of Myanmar. Although, of course, she has pointed out that she will hold a position above president. She is going to have a lot of her supporters -- of course, she leads the party in parliament. And her proxy president, some people call it. But, yeah, it is going to be hard to change that. Let's not forget, it is a Buddhist country and she has also got to please the Burmese people, not just the international community -- Errol?
BARNETT: So much to address. A significant day, indeed.
Thank you, Saima Mohsin, in Bangkok. Now, all eyes are on Iowa where the U.S. Presidential candidates just hours away from Monday's critical caucuses. We'll look at their strategies before the first votes are cast. Stay with me.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:31:15] BARNETT: Half an hour into this two-hour block, a welcome back to our viewers in the states and those of you tuned in around the globe. I'll Errol Barnett.
Let's update you on our top stories right now.
(HEADLINES)
BARNETT: We move our focus back to the race for the White House. Democrats and Republicans are blazing a trail across Iowa. And with just hours to go before the caucuses and there is not a moment to lose.
CNN's George Howell has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DONALD TRUMP, (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & CEO, TRUMP ORGANIZATION: We want to make America great again. That's what we want to do.
GEORGE HOWELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Time is running out before the critical Iowa caucuses, and candidates running for president pulled out all the stops to try to get voters' attention.
Donald Trump's wife, Melania, took the stage.
MELANIA TRUMP, WIFE OF DONALD TRUMP: Hello, Iowa. It's great to be here. He will be unbelievable, the best deal maker, the best master negotiator.
HOWELL: And rival, Ted Cruz, relying on the support of "Duck Dynasty" star, Phil Robertson, taking a jab at the front-runner.
PHIL ROBERTSON, REALITY STAR: For all you ladies, there will be a duck call. So how many out here have duck calls?
(CHEERING)
ROBERTSON: So let's try one more time to get Trump. It's called Donald duck to come meet with Cruz and debate.
(LAUGHTER)
(DUCK CALL)
HOWELL: From celebrity endorsements to grassroots support, this woman traveled halfway across the country in what she calls the Bernie bus to get Iowa voters to turn out for Bernie Sanders in a tight race against Hillary Clinton. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm going to feel it out and see where the
campaign thinks I need to go. And wherever I need to go, I'll be going. And I definitely plan on hitting all of the big states in terms of where the delegates are the most to inspire people.
HOWELL: Recent polling by the "Des Moines Register" and "Bloomberg Politics" shows Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders with 42 percent of the vote. Not far behind, Hillary Clinton, at 45 percent.
In the crowded Republican field, that same poll gives Donald Trump a 5-point lead over Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio, third at 15 percent, and Ben Carson fourth.
But with so many others polling in the single digits, there is still a large percentage of voters who, if swayed, could turn the tide for one of the front-runners.
Marco Rubio turning his attention to New Hampshire and trying to turn over moderate supporters who otherwise would support Jeb Bush.
SEN. MARCO RUBIO, (R), FLORIDA & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't just want to bring the conservative movement back together. I want to grow it. I want to convince more Americans that conservatism is the right approach for them and for this country. That will mean taking our message to people that have not voted for us in the past.
HOWELL: But before the New Hampshire primary and before the next round of debates, a win in Iowa matters because it means momentum moving forward.
HILLARY CLINTON, (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: We've run a terrific campaign from the grassroots up. Of course, it's close. It's competitive. That's why I hope everybody who has decided to caucus for me will be sure to come out on Monday night.
HOWELL: Hillary Clinton focused on the race and off the recent questions raised about her controversial use of a private e-mail server during her time as secretary of state, an issue that Bernie Sanders has refused to challenge her on during debates. But just recently, he described it as a, quote, "serious issue."
It all comes down to what voters decide in this first state to weigh in on the 2016 presidential race.
George Howell, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
[02:35:30] BARNETT: It is tight on both sides. And now snow could play a major role in how these caucuses turn out.
Meteorologist Derek Van Dam is here to explain that this.
Adds to the uncertainty, doesn't it? DEREK VAN DAM, AMS METEOROLOGIST: It is. Timing is everything.
We've advertising this blizzard that will eventually impact Iowa. It is a just about when it will reach the state.
I'll break it down for our viewers. Let's look at this. We have got a wide variety of watches and warnings across the country. The storm still well out to the West, in fact, across southern California. But that shading of green throughout Nebraska and Iowa that is a blizzard watch. This is the setup. A low pressure system ejects from the Colorado Rockies, eventually gathers a lot of moisture and strength and continues to deepen as it does so. It's going to have a trek that will bring it right across Iowa. As I mentioned a moment ago, timing is everything.
Let's look at our computer models here at CNN. Tuesday evening, local time, central standard time, we are anticipating perhaps a rain/snow mix into the extreme western portions of Iowa. It is a really early Tuesday morning, basically, from 4:00 a.m. onward where we expect the roads to really become extremely thick as the bulk of the storm, the fiercest part of the storm travels across the state. The majority of the caucuses should run without a problem. But that extreme western section could be an issue.
Here's our snow model forecast. We anticipate anywhere between 20 to perhaps upwards of 40 centimeters of snowfall for the extreme western sections just north of Des Moines, maybe just a little bit less than that. Nonetheless, enough to impact travel conditions across this area. So timing it out, the Western precincts of Iowa, we could, could start to see late snow showers by late Monday evening just as the polls start to close. By midnight, we'll into the overspreading of snow from Waterloo, Cedar Rapids and patio the Davenport region by Tuesday morning. And you can see the snow totals across the area. The Iowa Department of Transportation has a great plan, over 900 plows in force. They have got over 14,000 kilometers worth of roadways to handle.
And this is an interesting statistic, Errol. They studied this on presidential election days. If there is one inch snowfall above the normal for that particular day, Republicans see an uptick in votes by .6 percent.
BARNETT: Really? So snow is good for the Republican turn out.
VAN DAM: So snow is good for Republican turnouts.
BARNETT: Very interesting. I wonder what rain would do for Independents or for Democrats.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
BARNETT: Interesting stuff, Derek. Thanks so much. See you next hour.
VAN DAM: OK. BARNETT: Appreciate it.
U.S./China trade relations are an important matter for Iowans and many Americans voting in the coming election. It's harder to get much closer to what that really means than from the deck of a giant cargo ship that will soon set out for California from China.
Matt Rivers joins us from aboard the "Benjamin Franklin."
Matt, I hope you don't get seasick easily. Explain to us, how representative is this vessel of the demand in trade between the U.S. and China? I know there has been a drop in demand for many goods from China at least.
MATT RIVERS, ASIA-PACIFIC EDITOR: You talked about how big this ship is. We are actually in the bridge of the ship, above all these containers. 18,000 containers can fit onto this ship at its most full capacity. And so it really is a true mega container ship.
As for how representative it is, when you doctor company that built this is an international shipping company, they do this -- have done this for a very long time. They have been all throughout the world. It's not really an "if you build it they will come" situation. These are executives who are not going to invest the incredible amount of money into this ship if they weren't convinced they would be able to fill the ship up with container after container. That being said, it's a challenging environment here. Exports are down here in China. The economy is slowing down. In speaking with executives with the company, they have told us it is something they think about quite a bit and they have to adapt continually to the changing tide here in China's economy.
BARNETT: Matt, global cargo capacity, I understand, is actually surpassing demand. And some in the industry worry that massive vessels, like the "Benjamin Franklin," may put the small guys out of business. What's being said about that?
[02:40:13] RIVERS: There is no question that part of the reason that these mega container ships are being built because they are more efficient. It takes a lot more money. It takes a lot more expenses to continually take smaller ships. You know, you still need to crew those. You still need to fuel those ships. If you can do that with relatively the same amount of crew members but you have a bigger ship that can take a larger load of containers it end up being much more profitable. But, Errol, it takes a capital investment to build a ship like this. And there is no doubt that the ship builders who are able to build ships like this in today's environment are going to be able to do better than their smaller competitors.
BARNETT: Interesting stuff.
Matt Rivers aboard the "Benjamin Franklin." 3:40 p.m. there at the port.
Matt, thanks very much. Now to another ship, but this one is in serious trouble. A badly listing cargo ship adrift in the Atlantic Ocean could soon run aground in southwest France. Officials will make an effort to tow it to port on Monday. If that attempt fails, the vessel will hit the coastline. The ship's cargo is thought to have shifted in rough seas causing it to list dangerously to its starboard. The crew was airlifted off the ship last week.
Another grisly attack carried out by Boko Haram militants, leaving a village in ashes. A live report on this next.
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[02:44:56] BARNETT: Dozens are dead in northeast Nigeria after another terror attack by Boko Haram. This is all that remains of a village. Locals say gunmen came into the town and opened fire before burning down homes. Reports also say people were burned alive. The village is near the largest refugee camp in the country for those displaced by the terror group. It houses around 20,000 people and adds more with every decimated village.
Robyn Kriel is live in Nairobi, Kenya, and can give us an update.
Robyn, this is a terror group that caused thousands of deaths. What do we know about this latest attack and why these victims were targeted?
ROBYN KRIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It does sound like a particularly brutal attack. And I've been speaking to experts who say it was quite surprising that Boko Haram was able to launch an attack of this magnitude so close to Maiduguri. And perhaps, this expert says, this could be a sign that a direct slap in the face to the Nigerian president who has promised to liberate and to return internally displaced people by this fight against Boko Haram to the liberated area. You will remember Delori (ph), the village that was targeted 7:15 p.m. on Saturday night, houses burned, people fleeing into the bush, this exact village is where 20,000 of these people were living, hoping to return back to areas liberated by Boko Haram's strong arm.
BARNETT: It's heartbreaking. We're seeing some of the images from the attack.
Now, the U.S. has placed a $7 million bounty on the head of Boko Haram's leader but he is as elusive as he is dangerous. What does Nigeria say that it needs in order to address this threat?
KRIEL: Of course, they are saying they need more money, they need more help. Boko Haram is an incredibly large group, 4,000 to 6,000 fighters. That's on the low end of the scale. There could be more in countries such as Cameroon and Niger where they will outsource fighting for financial gain to some of the military groups, the territory it was controlling. The number of fighters it has is immense. As you say, more money needs to be poured into this fight against them, also a more concerted effort from the countries surrounding Nigeria as well as Nigerian military to clamp down on Boko Haram and its activities. Not a week goes by that you don't hear of bombings. Women and children are used in suicide bombings. It is an incredibly volatile period for the cities that Boko Haram continues to fight, almost with impunity, suicide bombings, attacks, and now very violent and dangerous raids.
BARNETT: You get a sense that something new, something aggressive needs to be done because the Boko Haram threat continues.
Robyn Kriel live for us in Nairobi this morning.
There is more CNN NEWSROOM after this short break.
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[02:52:02] BARNETT: As you know already, U.S. presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders, has narrowed the Democrat race, and has done it by reaching a generation of voters much younger than himself, much, much younger. But for his final pitch to Iowa voters, he had some help.
Our Chris Moody reports from the front lines of the youth movement.
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CHRIS MOODY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Are you here to see the concert of Vampire Weekend or Bernie Sanders?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Both.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Both.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, yeah, both.
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MOODY: We're at the University of Iowa just before the caucuses. Bernie Sanders is having a rally here. There are thousands of people wrapped around several blocks. But he's not going to be alone. Bernie Sanders is appearing with members of bands from Foster the People and Vampire Weekend.
KENNY LUCAS, THE LUCAS BROTHERS BAND MEMBER: I think Bernie, he stands out because he is honest, I think, and integrity, I think he has.
KEITH LUCAS, THE LUCAS BROTHERS BAND MEMBER: Yeah, yeah.
KENNY LUCAS: I believe a lot in what he says, too.
KEITH LUCAS: A lot of his policy issues, and he is attacking inequality unlike any other presidential candidate in my lifetime that I've seen.
JOSH HUTCHERSON, ACTOR: I think Bernie is the candidate that makes the most sense for me. His policies and voting record over the last 30 years has been flawless in my mine. He has been on the right side of so many situations. Unfortunately they didn't always go his way but he has the right motivation and he really fights for the people of America.
MOODY: Has he seen your movies?
HUTCHERSON: I don't know. I don't think he is the demographic that my movies reach out to. But you never know. He transcends all ages.
MOODY: I wonder if he was rooting for you.
HUTCHERSON: I probably won't ask him that. I would probably ask him something of substance.
MARK FOSTER, FOSTER THE PEOPLE BAND MEMBER: Standing up against big banks, standing up for people, for their right to health care, for education. It's crazy that we are the wealthiest country in the world but the only industrialized country that doesn't have free health care. And I think that he can make that happen.
MOODY: And why not Hillary Clinton? Why Bernie Sanders instead?
MARK PONTIUS, FOSTER THE PEOPLE BAND MEMBER: I mean, for me, it's kind of Hillary as long as she's been around and everybody knows who she is I have never really been able to -- I've never been into politics growing up. And a lot of the ways she talks and the way she is presenting things it's hard for an average person or a young person to relate to. Bernie is relatable. You listen to him, you feel the passion. It's real. And it makes sense.
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EZRA KOENIG, VAMPIRE WEEKEND BAND MEMBER: A few months ago, I read his book which he wrote in the 90s. I realized in the 90s -- which I was a kid then, Clinton era. It isn't easy for me to forget how messed up a lot of thing were, and to realize this guy, who is an Independent, criticizing Democrats and Republicans, saying a lot of the same things he is saying now. I think it's something rare in human beings and politicians. And there is something cool about Bernie Sanders, the only Independent in the House for long time, the only Independent in the Senate, a guy who kind of comes from an outside structure and is kind of bringing that to the Democrat party, there is something so much more exciting than somebody who comes from within. [02:55:27] MOODY: What do you make of the Republican primary slate
right now?
KOENIG: It's --
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-- Ew.
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BARNETT: That says it all.
Actually, I am a big fan of some of those bands. Young people have a lot of enthusiasm, but historically they don't vote. Will things be different this year? Stay tuned.
Thanks for watching my first hour of CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Errol Barnett.
Coming up next hour, live reports from London and Cairo, plus news as it breaks. Grab some tea and stay with me.
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[02:59:57] BARNETT: In a matter of hours, people in Iowa will cast the first votes in the presidential election season. The race is tight in both parties. And now the weather could play a role.
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