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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Ted Cruz Makes Closing Arguments in Iowa; Iowa Caucuses Last Minute Pitches for Votes; Hillary Clinton's Final Iowa Rally; New Details in California Jail Break; Zika Virus Active in More Than 20 Countries; Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[04:31:14] CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Hear that music? In just hours, the first contest in the 2016 presidential race begins. The candidates in Iowa making their last minute cases to voters before they caucus tonight.

Who will come out on top? Our special live coverage begins right now.

Welcome back to EARLY START. This special, special Iowa caucuses day. I'm Christine Romans in New York.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm John Berman. About 30 minutes past the hour. I am at the Mars Cafe in the city of Des Moines in the state of Iowa where tonight they will finally cast votes for president of the United States.

It is finally here after the months of campaigning, after the hundreds of rallies, after so many town hall speeches and even the debate debates. In just a few hours, voters will show up to their caucus sites all around the state in all 99 counties. And they will cast their votes for their parties' nominee and today the candidates, they are hitting the ground hard, campaigning all over the state because these races are very, very close.

Each campaign, every campaign, all their staffs, engage in this vast turnout effort because as the cliche goes, it will all come out -- come down to turnout. As if it could come down to anything else. Right? Whoever turns out the most voters, whoever gets the most voters will win. I'm going to make that bold prediction.

On the Republican side, the main battle is between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. CNN's Phil Mattingly with the Cruz campaign.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John and Christine. Don't roll the dice. Those were the four words Ted Cruz has been repeating. It's his closing argument. For Evangelicals, don't roll the dice on Donald Trump, someone who's made a big push for their support, even gained it in recent polls, but maybe ideologically hasn't been as aligned with him over the course of his career.

Don't roll the dice on amnesty, on immigration, on whatever you want to call what Marco Rubio did in the Senate that Ted Cruz has spent much of the last couple of weeks hammering him on.

Ted Cruz has had a rough last couple of weeks, under firm attack from Donald Trump. Marco Rubio really swinging toward sharp attacks in last couple of days. He is trying in this closing argument to push back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Every candidate is going to say they oppose Obamacare. The question we need to ask is show me when have you stood up and fought against Obamacare?

Every candidate is going to say they oppose amnesty. Even if their name is on the leading amnesty bill and they led the fight to try to pass it. The question we should ask is when have you stood and fought against amnesty and for the rule of law.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Today he will reach his 99th county calling Full Grassley named after Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, part of the vaunted ground game that Ted Cruz has had. They spent millions on data. They spent millions on digital. 10,000 volunteers knocking on doors trying to get that key turnout. And that's the big question today. What will prevail? Donald Trump? A message that has really expanded his lead in the polls over the last week or two or Ted Cruz and the ground game that he and his team have invested millions in over the last nine or 10 months? We will see.

John and Christine, back to you.

BERMAN: All right. Phil, thank you so much. That gives you a sense of what's at stake on the Republican side. What about the Democrats? Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, locked in a tight, tight race. Most of the polls show Hillary Clinton with a slim lead. 47 percent to 44 percent.

I can tell you from talking to both campaigns, they essentially think that's where it is as well. That doesn't mean, though, that Hillary Clinton is a slam dunk tonight. Oh, no. Because the big question is this. What about all those people showing up to the Bernie Sanders events? The thousands and thousands of passionate young first-time voters screaming at these rock 'n' roll rallies? Will they caucus tonight?

[04:35:06] CNN's Brianna Keilar, she was with Hillary Clinton overnight. Let's watch.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, a very enthusiastic crowd of thousands here at Hillary Clinton's final campaign event before Iowans caucus, a far cry from the first very small event that she held here in Iowa all the way back in April.

Hillary Clinton making the case that she is more electable than Bernie Sanders and that she is more capable of getting things done in Washington.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you agree with me that we need to build on the progress we have made, we need to prevent it from being ripped away and undermined by the other party whose views and values are opposed to what I believe, then I hope you will go caucus for me tomorrow night.

I hope you will go. I hope you will stand up for me. I hope you will fight for me. And I promise you this, I will stand up and fight for you every single day of this campaign and then when we win, I will fight for you in the White House. Thank you, and God bless you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Talking to Clinton campaign sources, they feel good about Hillary Clinton's prospects going into caucus day. That she has done everything she can when it comes to messaging, when it comes to organizing. They're looking at the polls, this consistent few points lead that she has in so many of them. That's making them feel about, but they are also very cautious because they are haunted, many of them who are in the campaign in 2008 by what happened here in Iowa.

They went into the caucus state thinking they were going to win, instead she got a stinging third place defeat -- John and Christine.

BERMAN: All right. Brianna Keilar with Hillary Clinton for us.

Let's break this all down. Joining us the "Wall Street Journal" White House reporter, Colleen McCain Nelson. Also with us CNN Politics reporter Eric Bradner.

Colleen, I want to start with you because Brianna really laid it out, I think what the big question is for Hillary Clinton. She also made a key statement, too. And I've been talking to the Clinton people and the Sanders people. I know you have. I do not smell fear in the Clinton campaign the way that you did definitely in 2008. They at least they come across like they think they're going to win.

COLLEEN MCCAIN NELSON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, WALL STREET JOURNAL: Right. They are cautiously optimistic. They say they're taking nothing for granted. They certainly brought out the big guns on Sunday. You saw there Hillary Clinton campaigning with Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton. Her most reliable and staunch advocates. And it's interesting, she is basically making the argument that as Bernie Sanders calls for sweeping changes, she is saying stick with what you know. She said -- she told her supporters stick with me, stick with experience. And she stood with her family. She hugged her husband. She hugged her daughter. And basically said you know the Clinton family. Stick with us.

BERMAN: This is it. Take it or leave it.

Eric, it's hard to relate to people having been to both the Clinton and the Sanders events. The difference. Briana was at a Clinton event last night that probably was the single best event that Clinton has done in the state at least most attended. But that is not what they've been like. We are at one together the other day.

BRADNER: Right.

BERMAN: These are tinny tiny. The Bernie Sanders events are bursting at the seams.

BRADNER: Absolutely. I mean, he had 3800 people in Iowa City a couple of nights ago, 1700 people last night here in Des Moines. The key is lassoing all of that energy and excitement and actually getting it to the polls today. Especially with college students in Johnson and Story Counties here in Iowa. He's going to need to rack up really, really big leads in places like that.

This is tricky. Barack Obama managed to do it in 2008. You've got 240,000 people to participate in the Iowa caucuses in a white hot race. But 2004 was a little more than half that. And Howard Dean, a liberal favorite sort of like Bernie Sanders, also from Vermont, managed to have a really disappointing showing. So it's hard. He's really been working on organizing here the last two months. Sort of rapidly building out. Something to catch up with what Hillary Clinton built over 10 months with advantages from 2008.

But it hasn't really been tested yet. He's got a lot of people volunteering for him as precinct captains and whatnot who are first- time caucus-goers. So it's going to be a really big challenge to actually get that energy and excitement to turn them into caucus- goers.

BERMAN: And it's not easy.

Let's talk about the Republicans, Colleen, because Donald Trump in Cedar Rapids today with Sarah Palin. He was with Jerry Falwell, Jr. yesterday on the stump closing hard. In some ways closing real. I mean, and I say that because a lot of people are saying he's running unconventional campaigns. This is all new and different. He has the gun to run a more traditional campaign in some ways.

NELSON: Right. He's jumping through some of the hoops that candidates need to jump through. And it's been fascinating to watch the last couple of weeks how aggressively he's made an effort to cut into Ted Cruz's base of support, which is evangelical voters.

BERMAN: Going right for the heart.

NELSON: Exactly. That is what Ted Cruz is counting on. And Ted Cruz saw his lead slipping away and Donald Trump seized upon it.

[04:40:04] And he went to Liberty University, he went to Oral Roberts University. They started campaigning with Jerry Falwell, Jr. as you said, Sarah Palin. All of these people who vouched for him and said -- and said maybe he's not a Sunday schoolteacher but we agree with him on the issues. And he will be strong for us and advocate for us. And so he has made a very aggressive play. The really key question at this point, much like with Sanders is does

he have the organization? And when you talk to Trump voters, they say they've been getting phone calls from the Trump campaign. But the phone calls haven't been very organized. They haven't necessarily told them where to go to caucus or how to caucus.

BERMAN: I was talking to a Republican voter yesterday who told me she had received 20 calls from campaigns over the last few weeks. And a Democratic voter who told me that he had been contacted by his precinct captain, the Clinton precinct captain, I think every day for the last two weeks. I cannot imagine what it's like to be an Iowa voter right now.

Let's talk still about the Republicans, Eric, because Ted Cruz, he's got a Donald Trump problem and he's got a Marco Rubio problem.

BRADNER: Right. Exactly. Yes, Marco Rubio, we've been talking about Marco-mentum these last few days, and whether Marco Rubio can sort of join Trump and Cruz in the top tier, really break away from the rest of the pack.

You know, Marco Rubio can come in third place and it can be a great night if he is a close third. Right? Behind Cruz or behind Trump. But if he's third and way back with the rest of the pack, it's a really bad sign for Marco Rubio.

So, yes, Trump and Cruz are really competing for a similar block of voters in the western portion of Iowa. 44 counties that could decide the race. And it is fascinating sort of tug between, do we go with someone who is one of us or do we go with someone who is strong enough to defend us. And Marco Rubio has been sort of making the play for he is one of us lately, too. Been talking about his faith a lot more openly on the campaign trail over the last few days.

BERMAN: He spent the most money here. He's been here more than anyone else the last few months. It will be interesting to see.

Colleen, is there anyone for whom there is no tomorrow?

(LAUGHTER)

NELSON: For most people there is a tomorrow because so many candidates have put all of their eggs in New Hampshire in the establishment lane. I think you could see Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee say enough already.

BERMAN: And Donald Trump has got an event in Little Rock on Wednesday which makes a lot of people think, like, what's going on with that?

NELSON: Make of that what you will.

BERMAN: Is Mike Huckabee going to be on stage?

All right. Colleen, Eric, thanks so much for being with us. I really appreciate it. After we hear from Iowa voters tonight at the caucuses, everyone goes

to New Hampshire. And we got some big news at CNN. We are hosting a town hall event in New Hampshire. Anderson Cooper moderates Wednesday night in the town of Derry. All the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, they will be there.

The timing here, Christine, so crucial because someone is coming out of Iowa with momentum. Someone is coming out of Iowa with a chip on their shoulder. They will get on that stage with Anderson Wednesday night in Derry and they will all have something to prove.

ROMANS: And this is -- I got to tell you, John, this is one of those days where every vote absolutely matters. Right? And you think about the community centers, the gyms, the school gyms, the church basements tonight that will be hosting all of these Iowans who will try to convince each other -- the caucus process is so interesting. Trying to convince each other whom to vote for. It's really a fascinating process, the Democratic process, isn't it?

BERMAN: On the Democratic side, absolutely. Literally, you go to parts of the room. You go to these corners of the room to show whom you support.

ROMANS: Yes.

BERMAN: So, you know, your friend can drag you over to the Hillary Clinton area.

ROMANS: Yes.

BERMAN: And don't forget, that's why the Martin O'Malley vote is so important because the Clinton and the Sanders campaigns will literally be trying to drag those O'Malley voters to their corners of the room.

ROMANS: On the Republican side, they'll hear pitches about their candidates from surrogates but on the Democratic side it is literally neighbors arguing, convincing and trying to make the case for the candidate they like because people change their mind, too. That's what's so fascinating about it. And they'll change their mind a couple of times.

All right. I can't -- I mean, I hate to -- sorry to get geeky about the internals of the caucus and process but it's so interesting. All right, John. Thank you for that.

Let's get a quick check on your money this morning. Stock futures are down slightly following that big rally on Friday. Global stocks, stock markets are mostly lower. There's a weak reading on manufacturing in China. Oil prices are down as well.

With the Iowa caucuses happening today, the economy there will be a main topic of conversation, no question. A recent CNN-ORC poll in Iowa shows the economy is issue number one -- among both Democratic and Republican caucus-goers. The economy, number one. Ahead of terrorism, ahead of foreign policy. They says it's one of -- the most important thing to them. And interesting that Iowa's economy is strong. The unemployment rate

statewide 3.4 percent. Well below the national average of 5 percent. Median household income in Iowa is nearly $52,000 right up the national average. Home prices in Iowa has been steadily rising up more than 10 percent in the past year.

[04:45:03] Really interesting that Iowa's economy by the numbers look strong. A diversified economic base, not just agri business but there's also insurance and finance. But you will be hearing people talk about the economy and their concerns that their kids won't have it as well as they did. And that is an underlying theme of this entire campaign.

Forty-five minutes past the hour. Three dangerous inmates who escaped a California jail are now back behind bars. This morning, new details on their capture. That's next.

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ROMANS: Welcome back. I'm Christine Romans.

The California jail worker accused of helping three violent inmates escape will make her first court appearance today. She is being charged with an accessory to a felony.

The three fugitives are now back behind bars in Orange County after more than a week on the run. One turned himself in on Friday. The last two were arrested after a tip from someone who saw their stolen van in the parking lot of a Whole Foods in San Francisco.

We get more from CNN's Dan Simon.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, the one thing you always hear police is that if you see something, you should say something. Well, that certainly came into play here in the famed Haight-Ashbury neighborhood in San Francisco. Someone who was in the area recognized the two fugitives and flagged down police.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get on the ground. Get on the ground. I knew right then that that was more than a homeless person.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A citizen saw someone, saw something suspicious, notified an officer. And that notification ultimately led to the apprehension of two armed and dangerous suspects.

[04:50:07] SHERIFF SANDRA HUTCHENS, ORANGE COUNTY: I can say this morning that the entire state can breathe a sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIMON: Authorities had offered a $200,000 reward for information that led to the fugitives' capture. The sheriff in Orange County says that the witness here in San Francisco deserves at least part of that reward. It seems like the fair thing to do -- John and Christine.

ROMANS: All right, Dan. Thank you for that. Dan Simon for us this morning.

Two Virginia Tech students are being held without bail this morning in connection with the kidnapping and murder of a 13-year-old girl. Excuse me. Nicole Lovell disappeared last week. Her body was found Saturday in North Carolina, near the Virginia border. 18-year-old David Eisenhauer is charged with her murder. Police are not commenting on how she died or a possible motive. But they say Eisenhauer and Nicole were, quote, "acquainted" before her disappearance. A second Virginia Tech student, Natalie Kippers, is charged with helping dispose of the body.

Attorneys for Boston marathon bombing Dzhokhar Tsarnaev are seeking to overturn his conviction and his death sentence. They filed a notice of appeal last week. Earlier this month a federal judge denied Tsarnaev's request for a new trial after his lawyers claimed their client could not get fair treatment in Boston.

Later today investigators plan to release more than 2,000 pages of evidence from last spring's deadly Amtrak derailment in Philadelphia. Eight commuters were killed, more than 200 other people hurt. The evidence is expected to include data from the train's black box. It could explain why the engineer was traveling at 106 miles an hour as he entered a sharp curb north of the Philadelphia train station. The speed limit for that curve was just 50 miles an hour.

Four anti-government protesters remained holed up in an Oregon national wildlife refuge in a standoff that's gone on for nearly a month now. Authorities are concerned about ongoing negotiations after the protesters reported losing communication channels. They are the last of the armed occupiers who took over the refuge headquarters to protest the imprisonment of two local ranchers. The group's leader, Ammon Bundy, was arrested last week. One of his followers was killed in the shootout with police.

College grads are making more money, finally. But one important decision can really boost those paychecks. I'll tell you what it is next.

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[04:55:33] ROMANS: The Zika virus now spreading explosively to two dozen countries. The World Health Organization is holding an emergency meeting in Geneva today. Scientists and government leaders from around the world trying to come up with a plan to halt the outbreak. Travel warnings are already in effect for pregnant women and officials could declare a public health emergency of international concern.

The Zika virus was first detected in Uganda. That's where CNN's David McKenzie joins us now live.

And you were there, David, in the Zika forest. The virus named for that very location. DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's right,

Christine. And certainly doesn't look necessarily like much. But in those forests behind me, there is some 70 types of mosquitoes. And they are studying here constantly to try and figure out whether this could be the location that the next virus epidemic launches from. But they found this virus more than 70 years ago in 1947, around 70 years ago, and by studying it, they didn't necessarily push further because it wasn't the most dangerous virus. They came across, they caught it by accident while looking for yellow fever. And it had this long period, this gap until an epidemic happened in the Micronesian island and then spread to the Americas.

So there was this long lag time when no one was focusing on Zika and the scientists here say that viruses pop up here all the time.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JULIUS LUTWAMA, LEAD RESEARCHER, UGANDA VIRUS RESEARCH INSTITUTE: We don't know for sure. We don't know completely what is in these forests. We have not done enough. We can't say we know anything. Every other year, we come across new viruses. In the last five years or so, almost each year, we come across a new virus in this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE: So that's it. To find out which virus they focus on normally that's based on the symptoms and the severity of that virus. But as we've seen in South Americas that there is a case where a virus, little known before, has suddenly become the potential health emergency -- Christine.

ROMANS: So, David, a big question here. Why didn't -- why didn't we see the kind of outbreak in Uganda that we're now seeing in Latin America?

MCKENZIE: That's a very good question. And it seems like there are at least two strains of the Zika virus. The Asian strain as they call it appears to be a mutation, an evolution of the virus which means that the virus is more sturdy, more able to spread through the body when it infects a human. And that might be why it only caused pandemics so many years after it was found here.

Chiefly it's in the Rhesus monkeys and other animals in this forest, we've seen them climbing through the trees this morning and it didn't necessarily jump into the human population. That only happened sometime later, probably a different strain. So scientists have to decide which viruses to go after. But there is a sense that more needs to be done at those early stages to at least have the ability to test for viruses easily in a hospital or lab in case a virus comes -- becomes more serious. But it's really like picking a needle in a haystack trying to figure out all the viruses that's emerging from this region which one is going to be deadly -- Christine.

ROMANS: All right. David McKenzie for us in the Zika forest in Uganda. Remarkable. Thank you for that reporting, David. Let's get an EARLY START on your money this Monday morning. Stock

futures are lower. Markets in Europe and Asia are down. Weak manufacturing data out of China is keeping optimism from extending into this week so far. We're also watching oil down.

Recent college grads are getting jobs and they're making more money. Millennials with college degrees are entering the best labor market in years depending on what they study. Now the jobless rate for college grads aged 22 to 27 fell to 4.9 percent last year and median income rose to $43,000.

Wages for the same age group with a high school diploma, they have fallen in recent years. They're now at $25,000 a year. But income varies widely depending on majors. Chemical engineers earn the most right out of college. Those who study theology and religion, jobs paid about $28,600 a year. Ranking the lowest of all 73 majors in the study. But the very good news here. Recent college graduates are getting jobs and they, in general, are being paid more.

EARLY START continues right now.

All right. It is good time. In just hours, the Iowa caucuses begin. The first contest of the 2016 presidential campaign. Candidates making their last-minute pitches to voters late into the night.