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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Ted Cruz Wins Iowa, Clinton and Sanders in a Virtual Tie. Aired 5-5:30a ET

Aired February 02, 2016 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (via telephone): He can be kind, but right now, he's in a race where he is trying to knock these other guys out, and that involves a little bit of push (ph).

[05:00:02] Now, we're seeing that may not played as well in Iowa as he was hoping it would, so may be he will soften his tone headed into New Hampshire. Now, Donald Trump is a guy when he is hit, he hits back. I think he's absolutely going to look at Marco Rubio as an emerging threat here. And I think we get a much better sense in a couple of hours of how he will deal with that.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, in Iowa, Donald Trump, not very many votes ahead of Rubio by any stretch.

Sara, thank you for that so much this morning.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: EARLY START continues right now.

(MUSIC)

BERMAN: All right. Breaking news this morning. If you can believe it, brand spanking new numbers in the Iowa caucuses on the Democratic side. One precinct left to count.

Just a short time ago, the Clinton campaign declared victory over Bernie Sanders. We didn't. They did.

Plus, on the Republican side, Ted Cruz wins the night. Donald Trump loses the night. Marco Rubio says third place is the best thing ever.

ROMANS: What a night.

BERMAN: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm John Berman.

ROMANS: And I'm Christine Romans. Nice to see you all this morning. It's Tuesday, February 2nd. It is 5:00 a.m. in the East.

BERMAN: And again, what we know is this -- Ted Cruz won. Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses. He won the Republican side of the race. Ted Donald Trump finished second. And Marco Rubio finished a very, very close third. Ted Cruz did well with evangelicals and on the values issues. The Democratic side, we have been waiting all night to get a clear answer. What happen? Separated by virtually nothing, just 0.4 percent all night. And just about an hour ago, the state Democratic Party told us there was one precinct left. This is what it looks, with just one precinct left, Hillary Clinton leads with 4.08 state delegate equivalents.

It's a mathematical formulation. You don't need to understand the details there. Just know she's a very tiny little bit ahead. There are only 2.2 state delegates equivalents remaining.

So, the Clinton campaign says the math works in their favor. They declared victory. We are waiting to get some more information.

Joining us live from Des Moines this morning, the last reporter in the state of Iowa, senior digital correspondent, Chris Moody.

Great to have you here with us.

CHRIS MOODY, CNN SENIOR DIGITAL CORRESPONDETN: It's great to be here. It's great to be here all night with you.

And exciting caucus on the Republican side and Democratic side. I think the most nail-biting has been the Democratic side, the most fascinating to watch for those who want to stay up all night.

As you have mentioned, it is neck and neck. Very close. But Hillary Clinton's campaign has declared victory.

Now, all overnight, the campaigns have been flying to New Hampshire. They are just now landing there. That's where the campaign will go on from here.

And this is where if it hasn't been exciting enough, it get really exciting there. Hillary Clinton declaring victory, reeling really good about it. But also Bernie Sanders coming from lower expectations and nearly tying a candidate who was as some people said, inevitable, many, many months, he is feeling good as well.

There's actually going to be a Bernie Sanders event in New Hampshire for people who have waited for his plane to land there at this early hour. I don't know if the sun will be up at that time. So, it's going to be really exciting.

Bernie Sanders and his poll numbers are looking pretty strong in that state. So, the fight has just begun.

ROMANS: And they are thinking, Chris, they're going to raise some more money, too, given his performance, yesterday, especially his performance with young people. Air Bern has landed, we're told in Manchester. So, another big day of campaigning there.

And, Hillary Clinton, will she change her strategy in Bernie Sanders' backyard?

Chris Moody, thanks for that. Let's break down the results, the winners and losers in Iowa, the nail

biting on the Democratic side. CNN political commentators, Tara Setmayer, she's the former communications director for California Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, Sally Kohn, a columnist for "The Daily Beast", and Ben Ferguson, host of "The Ben Ferguson Show".

Good morning, everybody.

BEN FERGUSON, THE BEN FERGUSON SHOW: Good morning.

ROMANS: Tara, let me ask you this, the turnout in Iowa, remarkable, great numbers on the Republican side, and the Iowa Democratic Party saying it was a close contact with robust turnout. What does that tell you about engagement in this campaign?

TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think it's fascinating.

Since the Republicans had a turnout vote of I think last night, it was 125,000. This time, it was up to 185,000 or so. People thought if there was more turnout, that meant Trump was going to win resoundingly, and it actually turned out to be the quite the opposite. It benefited Ted Cruz. It goes back to the point that organization matters.

Ted Cruz had thousands of people, 12,000 volunteers to get the Cruz crew. They were very well-organized on the ground, and that matters in Iowa.

And the fact that the Donald Trump campaign had virtually no organization on the ground. It is reported they didn't pay for the infrastructure. Volunteers did not know where to go or what to tell the supporters what precincts to go.

[05:05:05] That did not help Donald Trump.

So, I think it is another part of the story here that it was Ted Cruz who benefitted, possibly Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz benefitted from the record turnout.

FERGUSON: No one can take away that Trump can fill a room or stadium. That doesn't mean though that you have any type of actual ground game in the states moving forward.

If what we know is, Iowa's first. If he doesn't do better when it comes to actual campaign on the ground -- you have to do more than just fly in and say 20,000 people show up and I'm going to give you 45-minute speech. It is easy to go to one of those. If you don't have the workers and volunteers that know what we are doing on the ground.

I also think this brings in the issue with the campaign staff. He had a lot of people on the staff that I'm not sure they know what they are doing running the campaign. They are very arrogant and they very cocky at that campaign, but they basically flubbed the first one, and I'm not sure they have a ground game moving forward in any state for that matter.

BERMAN: Hand on, hang on -- one thing we don't know is if Donald Trump listens to his campaign staff.

FERGUSON: That's true.

BERMAN: I want to turn the focus to the Democratic side. We have not called it yet, 0.4 percent separating Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton with the oh, so, very slight lead.

Sally, I have been harping on this. It is not much of a lead. How much of a difference does it make to not have much of a lead versus trailing Bernie Sanders after Iowa?

SALLY KOHN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Look, you know, Hillary Clinton can walk out of Iowa and say it looks like possibly potentially if her campaign is to be believed in certain disclosure here. She can walk out potentially and say we won Iowa. Good for her. . Pat on the back. She deserves that.

But as everyone has been pointing out throughout the night, Iowa is a very small and demographically non-representative state is all about expectations. Did you come out of Iowa faring as well you were expected to or better than going in? That's it, that's the game here.

And Hillary Clinton has by that measure not done so well. She was once upon a time expected to be the far and away leader. She is now neck and neck, barely eking out a victory, perhaps with a, you know, insurgent fringe candidate, whatever words you want to use candidate, who no one thought to actually be a real threat, but what was really just sort of running a symbolic campaign to push her substantively.

Now he is a real threat. That doesn't feel good to her.

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: She is losing by 20 points in New Hampshire. Let's not forget that. She is not talking into friendly territory in New Hampshire.

ROMANS: Another small representative state.

SETMAYER: But it counts.

ROMANS: But it does count for momentum as we go forward.

Maria, what does she have to do differently? You go back to the turnout numbers, especially young people in Iowa. What does she have to do, Maria, to make sure that Bernie Sanders doesn't have the energy of young vote and Bernie Sanders doesn't build on that if you're in that campaign?

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think she have to continue to talk about the issues that these young people care about. You saw her do that in her tonight.

BERMAN: Eighty-four percent to 14 percent.

(CROSSTALK)

CARDONA: I don't know she will be able to overcome his advantage right now with young people. I do think what it will do to her is it will continue to make her talk about issues in a much more relevant, passionate way. You know, she is somebody that she doesn't wear her heart on her sleeve like Bernie Sanders, right? But where she does wear her heart is policy prescriptions.

And so, the more that she talks about those policy prescriptions and how they will be relevant to young people, and how they will be relevant to, you know, all of the Bernie Sanders supporters. I think the more it will help her. I think we should also just an interesting tidbit of information, when CNN does call it for Hillary Clinton, she --

BERMAN: In the year 2019.

CARDONA: She will be the first woman in history to win the Iowa caucus.

ROMANS: Interesting. Let's listen to what Hillary Clinton said herself last night about what kind of candidate and president she would be. Let's listen to that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas, to really think hard about what the Democratic Party stands for and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it. I am a progressive who gets things done for people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: And Bernie Sanders is a progressive who doesn't get things done for people?

FERGUSON: She sounds like Bernie Sanders there at the very end. I think she is at least taking a play from his playbook which say smart move for her to do. She understands that she's got to try something new.

But I have to go back to one main thing with Hillary Clinton. It is the trust issue.

[05:10:04] This is going to be something that Bernie Sanders is going to be able to continue to exploit. If I'm Bernie Sanders, the best piece of information I heard from Iowa is that people on the Democratic side, not the Republican side, they do not trust her. It is a significant gap.

If he can go out there and capitalize and say I am the guy you can trust. I never changed. You know my motives. I have never wavered. It may not always be popular, but I am an individual you can trust. There seems to be a big advantage here and he should --

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Stop, stop, stop. We will talk about it after the break. I promise.

ROMANS: Ted Cruz, they are popping champagne bottles on his plane last night.

BERMAN: Literally.

ROMANS: Sunlen Serfaty. They just landed in New Hampshire. We're going to tell you about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROMANS: Breaking news from Iowa. Ted Cruz won, beating the man who polls and predicted he would win. Donald Trump.

[05:15:00] So, what does this mean for his chances of winning the whole enchilada, the Republican nomination?

Joining us on the phone, CNN Sunlen Serfaty --

BERMAN: She's with Ted Cruz.

ROMANS: She's traveling with Ted Cruz this morning.

You know, let me ask you this -- I heard the champagne corks were popping on the plane.

What's going on?

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): That's right. Good morning, John and Christine.

Well, the Cruz plane just landed here in Manchester, New Hampshire. And you're right, it was initially a celebratory flight. It started with a round of champagne served by flight attendants to the Cruz staff. A very festive atmosphere. The Cruz campaign good about their win in Iowa.

During the flight, the celebratory mostly settled down while people taking this news, the senator seems to be spending most of the flight huddled in conversations with top aide. He will now get a few hours of sleep after being up all night. But he will get right to it in New Hampshire at the town hall.

He will hop ahead to South Carolina. For the rest of the week, though, more or less, Cruz will be digging in here in New Hampshire. His national co-chair telling us tonight that he predicts Trump's lead in New Hampshire will start to close.

You know, New Hampshire is not an easy state for Ted Cruz. He has always been behind in the polls, behind Donald Trump a lot. But landing here in New Hampshire, they are certainly coming in with a new argument, this Iowa win, giving them some early validation, so to speak. So, the wind is at their backs.

The question is, are they able to translate that into a win here in New Hampshire? Ted Cruz will start that task today.

BERMAN: He is way behind in New Hampshire, right? I mean, Donald Trump is way ahead in New Hampshire. South Carolina, it's a little bit more. Donald Trump is ahead there, too.

You know, does Ted Cruz intend to compete hard in New Hampshire, Sunlen?

SERFATY: It's every indication we're seeing from the campaign, John, is that he will. If you look at his schedule this week, except for one event in South Carolina, today, most, all of the events are exclusively in New Hampshire. He's going to be investing a significant amount of time here.

This was a surprise in a final moments released to the -- on schedule last night. The Cruz campaign really indicating they think they have momentum and they can shift their favors here New Hampshire.

This is not an electorate that is leaning toward Ted Cruz. It is a much harder state for him to win than Iowa. This is a big early test to see if he's able to expand his reach, expand his interest from other people. So, it will be interesting to see how Cruz in the first event in New Hampshire in six hours after he gets a few hours sleep what argument he will make to New Hampshire voters.

He had a direct message in his Iowa victory speech. Basically I'm coming for you and a lot of time, I'm going to be eating at Dunkin' Donuts. That was a very clear message to New Hampshire voters. I'm going to come and ask for your vote.

BERMAN: And give me a large coffee when you're there.

Sunlen Serfaty, thank you so much. Great to have you with us. You know, bragging rights from Iowa to New Hampshire last about an hour.

So, Ted Cruz has got about until 7:15 when Iowa wears off.

All right. The breaking news in the race for president, we just told you -- Ted Cruz, he won Iowa.

Hillary Clinton, she declared victory although it is really still too close to call. The Iowa party hasn't called it. We haven't called it yet. We did just get some new numbers.

We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:23:08] BERMAN: All right. Here are the facts: Ted Cruz won Iowa. Hillary Clinton says she won Iowa. She's got a razor thin lead in the polls right now or in the results right now, I should say.

Some more facts I'm going to throw at you. Donald Trump leading in New Hampshire by a lot. Bernie Sanders leading in New Hampshire by a lot. Hillary Clinton leading in South Carolina by a lot.

So, what happens now?

ROMANS: New Hampshire is next. Iowa is behind us.

BERMAN: We have 30 seconds for our panelists to weigh in on the future.

Let's start with you, Sally.

KOHN: I mean, first of all, democracy wins, right? You've got the people speaking up and saying that they don't want Washington to pick their candidates. They want a say.

And on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has shown the people matter and that the people can speak up and change the Democratic establishment. Hopefully that change is going forward and Republicans elect someone sane.

BERMAN: Tara, 30 seconds.

SETMAYER: Marco Rubio bet expectations, which is a huge win for him. Big win for Ted Cruz. But can he keep that momentum in New Hampshire? I'm not quite sure.

And for Hillary Clinton, yes, she might have won, but it would have been Groundhog Day all over for her in Iowa although she won a tiny, tiny bit.

And, Trump -- Donald Trump is a loser today.

ROMANS: Maria?

CARDONA: Hillary Clinton wins, becoming the first woman to ever win an Iowa caucus. Bernie Sanders also did great. Also a win. The Democratic Party wins. They are focusing on the issues that all Americans care about -- compared to Republicans who will nominate somebody who is anti-woman and anti-Latino.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Your 30 seconds, respond. Ben. Go.

FERGUSON: I'll say this. Donald Trump proves arrogance and cockiness does not win you the White House. He is a loser today.

Ted Cruz did better than everyone thought he was going to. So, he's the big winner. And Marco Rubio is a guy that has got a little mo coming out of Iowa.

[05:25:00] And on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is telling the truth and people like him if you are a Democrat listening. And Hillary Clinton, still, her biggest issue is trust. It is caused her to have such problems. It's her issue that's going to cause her problems moving forward is, can Democrats trust her?

BERMAN: All right, guys. I can't thank you enough. You're all winners in my book. Thanks so much.

A couple of simple facts, CNN town hall Wednesday night, 8:00 p.m. in New Hampshire. Anderson Cooper moderates.

ROMANS: Speaking of momentum, a lot of momentum over the next couple days.

"NEW DAY" is breaking down all the breaking election new. They pick up from us now.

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