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Interview With Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer; New Hampshire Primary. Aired 15-15:30p ET

Aired February 09, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:05]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And we continue on. I'm Brooke Baldwin. So great to be here live in snowy Manchester, New Hampshire.

It's primary day in America. This is the first-in-the-nation primary. And, right now, I can tell you this. Voters, they are at the polls right this moment deciding who should walk away with some pretty big prizes.

The candidates, they have been out in full force, doing what New Hampshire elections are known for, retail politics, shaking hands, talking to supporters, banging on doors, working with volunteers, you know, whatever they can do to round up these votes.

Yes, it's cold out there. There is no snow falling, but, listen, we're in New Hampshire. This is a hefty, tough bunch. They have got this. The New Hampshire secretary of state, by the way, is expecting a record turnout with more than half a million votes today.

We're watching so closely because it's not just win, place or show. A failure here to perform to expectations, to show your campaign truly has life, could be costly.

Let's kick off the hour with Joe Johns, who is at a polling station in Manchester here, and Brian Todd is down in Hudson.

So, Brian Todd, first to you. Tell me what you're hearing.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Brooke, this is a very dynamic scene.

This is what we love about covering the vote here New Hampshire. You get to see American democracy in its process as its working with our ballot cams. It's the coolest thing on Election Day. And this is how we can show you the turnout.

As you mentioned, the secretary of state of New Hampshire has predicted a record turnout. We're going to take you out the door here to show you kind of an example of that. The lines have been going out the door since the polls opened here at 7:00 a.m. We're going to politely excuse ourselves past these folks here and take you out the door because one of the stories here in Hudson, at the Hudson Community Center here, as our photojournalist, Jamie Wiener (ph), is going to pan to his left and show you the traffic. There has been a line of cars, Brooke, going about six blocks that way

since about 7:00 a.m. this morning, a steady flow of cars. Some of them, Brooke, have turned around. I talked to one voter who said he turned around and then came back two times. And he was a little upset. He thinks that maybe they can handle the traffic a little bit better.

But the good news is heavy voter turnout. You mentioned half a million voters in New Hampshire. At this precinct, Brooke, they're expecting 9,000. But as of about an hour ago, they already had more than 4,000 voters come through here. We think they are going to probably shatter that record.

A big story here in New Hampshire are the undeclared voters who come in here.

And here's one of them, Kelly Goddu.

Kelly, you said you were undeclared when you came in here. Then you registered for Republican. Why did you go Republican this time?

KELLY GODDU, NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: I tend to be more Republican than I am Democrat. And I have been -- I really like to be undecided because I like to vote for the person, not necessarily the party.

TODD: And who did you vote for this time? You told me.

GODDU: I voted for Christie.

TODD: OK. What made you decide Christie?

GODDU: I actually like what he stands for. I think he's honest. I think he's trustworthy. I think he has a lot of experience and I think he's the guy.

TODD: What's interesting here in New Hampshire, with so many undeclared voters, they dominate the state pretty much. A lot of people are curious, when did you decide? Did you decide when you came in here? Did you decide two days ago, two weeks ago?

GODDU: I have probably kind of been voting back and forth between a couple of them over the last couple of days and today I just decided that he was going to be the guy.

TODD: All right, Kelly, thank you very much for talking to us.

GODDU: You're welcome.

TODD: Best of luck.

GODDU: Thank you.

TODD: Brooke, here's another fascinating dynamic about New Hampshire. Here's a sample ballot. The Republicans, 30 people are running for president in New Hampshire on the Republican ticket. The Democrats, 28 of them. You can pay $1,000 to the secretary of state and get on the ballot.

That's how free-flowing the democracy is here in New Hampshire.

BALDWIN: Brian, Brian Todd, you are bringing it today, my friend, between the ballots, the traffic, the lines. I tip my hat to you. Brian Todd, thank you very much.

And from Brian, let's go to my colleague Joe Johns, where I know you were talking last hour, a little bit of a post-lunch lull. Tell me, what's the turnout like where you are?

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're looking at about 1,400 people so far since early this morning. That is a very fast pace at McDonough Elementary School in Manchester.

With me now is Keith Ballingall. He's a ward clerk. And we just sort of wanted to get to it from horse's mouth.

And 1,400 people so far, we have gone through breakfast, which was fast, lunch, which was fast, lulls in the middle. Tell me a little bit about turnout from your perspective.

KEITH BALLINGALL, WARD CLERK: So, turnout, we were thinking maybe 50 percent of the registered voters. We're probably on pace closer to 70 percent and then this evening is when it's really going to get busy.

JOHNS: Right. How many registered voters do you have in this ward?

BALLINGALL: About 3,600.

JOHNS: And we have seen about 1,400, so technically about half, right?

BALLINGALL: Right. That's right.

JOHNS: That doesn't even count new voters? Have you seen a lot of new voters coming in?

BALLINGALL: A lot of new voters. And it also doesn't count the absentee ballots.

JOHNS: All right. So you're looking for a big turnout because the big turnout occurs, what, at the end of the day?

(CROSSTALK)

BALLINGALL: Usually after work, yes.

JOHNS: All right. And what do voters need to know around 7:00 about getting in and being in line and stuff?

[15:05:03]

BALLINGALL: So, for us, as long as somebody's in the door, they're good. I would just be sure you're at the right place. If they can go

online, look at the Web site for the city, make sure they're going to the right polling place. As long as they're in, they're all set.

JOHNS: Great.

Thank so much, Keith Ballingall, the ward clerk.

There you go. Just about half, we're looking at they're on pace for that and they haven't even gotten to the big crowd that comes this evening, Brooke.

BALDWIN: All right, Joe Johns, thank you so much. You have a long night ahead of you.

So great though to sort of get the pulse of these polling places through the day as this is ongoing.

So much to discuss. Let's broaden this out. We have got a bunch of handsome gentlemen sitting to my left.

I have Bakari Sellers, a CNN commentator and former member of the South Carolina House of Representatives. He has officially endorsed Hillary Clinton. Andy Smith is back with us. He's the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Matt Lewis, CNN commentator and senior contributor at The Daily Caller. Lou Gargiulo is back as well, co-chairman of Trump's campaign in Rockingham County, New Hampshire.

Fellows, hello to all of you again.

And, you, Matt, I look at you, because we last chatted last weekend in Iowa. You successfully predicted what would happen. So, I'm beginning with you, and you get the gold star. You want to -- you care to -- you want to call it for tonight?

MATT LEWIS, DAILY CALLER: I will try. I'm not as confident.

I think we probably think that -- I think we know Donald Trump is going to win. I'm going to predict Donald Trump will win. The real question is who comes in second. That's where it's really jumbled. It's really messy. I'm not as confident.

I'm going to go with John Kasich. I think the high turnout helps people like Donald Trump and people like John Kasich. You will have unaffiliated voters, independent voters. I think that's where the action is.

BALDWIN: You agree with him?

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I do.

I think what we will see at the top of the ticket, of course, is Donald Trump. I think you will see Kasich. I think the battle is for three. I'm really watching the race between Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Not only do these two gentlemen truly hate each other, as we have seen across the process.

But I think it kind of determines the establishment lane. And another thing that I have noticed, just from talking to people here in New Hampshire, is that Hillary Clinton's best friend tonight might actually be John Kasich, because there are a lot of people who are making a decision right now between Bernie Sanders and John Kasich.

And the expectation game, which you talked about, because Bernie's expected to do so well, one of the individuals I met earlier today said, Bernie's got this, so, I'm going to vote for Kasich.

BALDWIN: You know that's part of the pitch. I was just talking to Dana Bash, who interviewed John Kasich. Part of the pitch, they're on the phone with New Hampshire voters and they say they want Bernie and they say, you know what, Bernie's going to win. I'm going to save you that vote. And why don't you go out and take Kasich?

And that could help Hillary Clinton. I want to come back to Jeb Bush in a second. But, Andy, to you, on Trump, is a win enough for him or does he need to win big?

ANDREW SMITH, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER: Sure. A win's enough to get him through. He's got the money. He's got enough momentum that will go forward into states that I think are as amenable to him as New Hampshire is.

South Carolina in particular I think would be a spot where he would do quite well. Obviously, if it's really close, if it's 1 or 2 percentage points, people are going to try to spin it as a loss. But I don't think Donald gets spun too many times. Even in Iowa, he spins a loss into a win or somebody has fixed the race. So, I'm not worried about him being able to make his message.

BALDWIN: OK, since Trump is your man, Lou, let me just come to you on this, because we just heard today -- listen, we have heard a lot about Donald Trump and the wall along the U.S./Mexican border.

This is the first time today we have actually heard a number figure associated with building this wall. Apparently, Donald Trump did the math, taking price per square foot and price per square mile. Listen, I finished with AP calculus and that was it my freshman year in college.

LOU GARGIULO, TRUMP CAMPAIGN CO-CHAIRMAN, ROCKINGHAM COUNTY, NEW HAMPSHIRE: I didn't make it that far.

BALDWIN: And $8 billion, do you know where he got that number from?

GARGIULO: I don't, but certainly he is a builder and he knows the cost of building. And I would suspect that that number came with some degree of certainty in his mind.

And I think that the wall is something that we need to do, if for no other reason than to stop the flow of heroin into the United States. So I think that I'm a strong supporter of doing it, if for no other reason than that. BALDWIN: Let me pivot from the wall to Jeb Bush and to you, because I

thought you wrote something kind of potentially fantastic.

So, let me just quote.

LEWIS: Kind of potentially.

BALDWIN: One theory, which makes a lot of sense to me -- this is on Jeb Bush and the smiles and the snowballs, et cetera, we have seen -- is that he has been relieved of the burden of thinking he actually can win the presidency. "Freed from the encumbrance of actually trying to win, he has been liberated to focus on simply destroying his old friend Rubio."

You don't think he's fighting to win? Is that where this relaxed Jeb Bush has come from?

LEWIS: I think there's a psychological switch he threw at some point where he just said, OK, I'm probably not going to win. Let's just have fun. And let's get even. It's like the Seinfeld campaign. It's about spite. And there's nothing more fun.

BALDWIN: Thank you for the Seinfeld reference. Much appreciated. Go ahead.

LEWIS: I think that's -- I think he's been liberated.

If you watch him, he really looks like he's finally having fun. If this Jeb Bush, we'd had this Jeb Bush from day one, he could have been in much better shape. I think that there was a psychological switch where he figured out he's not going to win. And then he gave himself permission.

BALDWIN: But it's not like he's been the front-runner all along.

SELLERS: Well, Jeb Bush is really bad at running for president of the United States. I think we have learned that already. He's just not a good candidate.

[15:10:01]

But what we are seeing is when he brought out the grandmother offensive, when he brought out his mother, Barbara Bush, who, by the way, I absolutely adore. I didn't know I loved Barbara Bush as much as I did when I saw her with a Jeb Bush sticker in the snow with an umbrella above her.

BALDWIN: Amazing.

(CROSSTALK)

SELLERS: Amazing work. And his brother, in South Carolina, where we have a number of military installments, is still very, very popular. So I'm not going to say that he can't win. I mean, but he still has a path. But, here, at least he's fighting. He's fighting in New Hampshire. LEWIS: But there is an irony that once you sort of give up and just surrender, OK, then all of a sudden...

(CROSSTALK)

SELLERS: You get better.

LEWIS: It's a spiritual thing.

(CROSSTALK)

SMITH: The thing in New Hampshire, the beauty of the New Hampshire primary is, the candidates are here long enough that you can tell if they're being themselves.

When they are themselves, you know it. That authenticity shows through and they become a better candidate. When you try to be somebody else that you're not, you're not going to go anywhere.

BALDWIN: OK, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton, there's a report out there, Bill and Hillary Clinton, they're disappointed with the direction of the campaign, that a staff shakeup could be imminent. The campaign denies it.

But I just want to share this tweet. I'm sure you have seen it from David Axelrod, former Obama adviser, tweeted this: "When the exact same problems crop up in separate campaigns with different staff, at what point do the principals say, hey, maybe it's us?"

SELLERS: David's a friend of mine. I worked with David in 2008. I was the co-chair for the president's steering committee down in South Carolina. I understand what he's saying.

However, speaking to the campaign, understanding what they're doing over there, they're on the right track. The difference between now and 2008 is something very fundamental. She won Iowa, you know, and not only did she win Iowa, but Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama.

So they do have these things going in their favor. Tonight's going to be a rough night, but if they're able to stay within 10, 12 points, I think we're talking about spinning. We saw Rubio's spin job in Iowa, when we thought Rubio actually won the race after that speech.

I expect Hillary Clinton to do something very similar.

LEWIS: And her husband did it in New Hampshire.

(CROSSTALK)

SELLERS: He lost by nine points and became the comeback kid. It's most amazing thing.

When she gets to Nevada, when she gets to South Carolina, and I said this earlier, and I will say it again, when people like my mother and her friends are deciding this election, Hillary Clinton is going to do very well. BALDWIN: It was a tough moment with Bill Clinton in South Carolina

back in the day. You know what I'm talking about.

SELLERS: We hammered Bill Clinton relentlessly for some of the comments he made. But we did do was we didn't throw Hillary Clinton under the bus as much as we embraced Barack Obama.

I was in a church on Saturday morning and when I walked in, in South Carolina, the way it works is, you have a picture of Jesus, you have a picture of Martin Luther King and you have a picture of Barack Obama. This is the mentality going in. Hillary is riding those coattails and embracing the president. That's going to push her forward.

BALDWIN: We will go back. That is coming up.

Bakari Sellers, Andy Smith, Matt Lewis and Lou Gargiulo, gentlemen, thank you, thank you, thank you.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: And please stay with us here at CNN all day long into the wee hours. We will all be up and at them. As the sun goes down, the results will be rolling in. Do not miss a moment of our special live coverage of the New Hampshire primary starting officially at 4:00 Eastern with my pal Jake Tapper right now on CNN.

Coming up next, some undecided voters admit they have a bit of a bizarre decision to make here. They're vacillating between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Yes, it's a thing. Welcome to New Hampshire. Hear why their decision comes down to these two.

Plus, former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer joins me to talk about what he thinks about Jeb Bush's campaign, about Donald Trump's chances and Marco Rubio.

And we will talk live here to voters. Let's just get right to it. Two independent voters here in Manchester who say they have been to all these different rallies, they have been to all these different rallies, they have made up their minds officially today. Hear their choices and why.

You're watching CNN's special live coverage. I'm Brooke Baldwin. We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:17:30]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's really kind of disappointing that there isn't one perfect candidate. I went and listened to Trump last Tuesday, and I liked that he's honest. But a lot of my friends, being in New Hampshire, they're like, we love Bernie, so I'm like, OK, I have got to give Bernie a fair shot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So great to hear from these different voters, you know, independent voters here in New Hampshire apparently having a tough time deciding between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

You heard me correctly. Independents can register as undeclared in today's primary and vote for either party. And let me tell you, there are a lot them. More than 40 percent of the registered voters here in New Hampshire are undecided. What is it about these two candidates in particular who seem like polar opposites that is actually attracting similar voters?

Let me bring in Cassie Spodak, who has been our New Hampshire embed.

And I think it's interesting just to explain to people at home. CNN has sent people like you to sort of live in New Hampshire, get the feel on the ground, South Carolina, Iowa.

So, you have been here a while. One thread you have noticed, that people are vacillating between Trump and Sanders? How is that possible?

CASSIE SPODAK, CNN PRODUCER: Well, so, when I looked into this story, I talked to both their campaigns and something they both talked about is that they're not beholden to special interests, that they're focusing on average Americans. They don't have super PACs. They're not looking for donors who have lots of money who they're going to be beholden to also.

And so that is something that voters are attracted to in them.

BALDWIN: Did that surprise you in talking -- you, covering politics, that people are torn between those two? Does it make sense to you or still baffle you?

SPODAK: I think it does, because when you talk to voters that are undeclared, that's really important to them that they can vote in either election and they're thinking about candidates based on that person and not on their party.

There's kind of a feeling against parties here, I think, against being solidly in the Democratic Party or Republican Party. They like the ability to switch back and forth.

BALDWIN: You know, we have heard from the secretary of state, who is anticipating this record turnout today, basically, I think north of half a million voters. And if they do get this record turnout, which candidates does that benefit the most, do you think?

SPODAK: What matters specifically is which ballot these undeclared voters decide in.

You get high turnout overall, but high turnout within the undeclareds to either party is what's going to make a difference. So if you have undeclared voters turning out in higher numbers in the Republican primary, that's going to give Governor John Kasich a boost. He could actually go into second place in one of the polls that we saw from WBUR.

BALDWIN: As someone who has lived in New Hampshire, who has set up camp here for the last eight months, what is the one thing you're watching for tonight?

[15:20:05]

SPODAK: You know, it's hard to say.

I think that the voters are really making up their minds at the last second and so it's going to be, you know, like, what are the issues that they care about the most? And I think it's like a gut decision for a lot of them. And so I think they're going to be thinking about the debate. They're going to be thinking about, you know, these final closing messages from the candidates and how long they have spent in New Hampshire.

Voters really care about that.

BALDWIN: Talking to people here, and it's about to change, but when you talk to people in New Hampshire, it's not, have you met any of the candidates? It's, oh, well, I have talked to Bernie Sanders twice and Hillary Clinton came and knocked on my door once.

That's how it is here in New Hampshire that makes it so special and I think why people take it so, so seriously.

SPODAK: That's true.

And I think that you will -- I have covered so many town halls here. You will hear voters say, I have asked this question of three other candidates. I want to hear your answer.

BALDWIN: It's incredible.

SPODAK: Last night, when I was at Christie's town hall, there was a voter who said, I asked Bush the same question, you had a better answer, now you have my vote.

They're going to straight to the candidates and asking them these questions.

BALDWIN: Cassie, thank you so much.

SPODAK: Sure.

BALDWIN: Appreciate it, our embed here in the great state of New Hampshire and her articles posted on CNN.com.

Coming up next, Ari Fleischer will join me to break down the crowded Republican field. Will Marco Rubio regain his momentum out of Iowa or could one of the remaining governors here, Bush, Kasich, Christie, have a really huge night? We will talk to the former White House press secretary coming up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And you feel like all the kerfuffle about the debate is.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Yes, that's a media thing. But for voters, voters are excited about it. They know this is -- especially in New Hampshire, voters in New Hampshire are serious about this. They understand what's at stake here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:26:17]

BALDWIN: Just about the bottom of the hour. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for being with me.

It is an important day here in this country, voting in the first-in- the-nation primary here in New Hampshire in full swing. But that has not stopped the sparring between some of these candidates.

Today, Governor Chris Christie pointed out that Senator Marco Rubio keeps repeating over and over, he says, these same talking points, despite the criticism for doing so during the Republican debate.

And Christie added the hammering he gave Rubio that night was to show he is better prepared to run the country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R-NJ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have been making that argument over and over and over again in town halls, 76 of them, throughout this state. And yet it took Saturday night to put the spotlight on that moment.

The fact is, that wasn't tough on Saturday night. And it wasn't tough on Senator Rubio. They haven't seen tough yet.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: And then there is Donald Trump and Jeb Bush. Trump has said Bush is a disgrace to his family name. Bush pushed back with this today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And the disparaging of people because of their faith or because of their gender or because of their disabilities or because they're a POW, you know, it's just wrong and he cannot hijack our party. Our party will not win if we're the reactionary party.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: With me now, Ari Fleischer, who served as White House press secretary under George W. Bush and now runs his own communications company.

Ari Fleischer, good to see you.

ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER GEORGE W. BUSH WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Great to be here.

BALDWIN: OK, so I want to get into this whole back and forth with Trump and Bush in just a moment, but, first, looking ahead to tonight, let's just go ahead and assume, you know, everyone's correct, Trump's going to take the win.

Among the governors, Ari, who continues on to South Carolina?

FLEISCHER: Right.

I think it's a muddle, Brooke. I think the key is, does somebody come into second place by a sufficient majority, by a sufficient bump above the third and fourth place people that they can turn to those people and say you need to drop out, there's no future for you in this party, in this race and you need to drop out, and therefore the race winnows?

What I fear the most is that won't happen, that you're going to have a muddle in the middle, and they will all be so bunched up close to each other that each one of them is going to say, I'm staying on, I'm going on, which would be Donald Trump's dream come true.

BALDWIN: Why do you say that?

FLEISCHER: Because so long as there's a divide and conquer, Trump will continue to win with the greatest pluralities.

So long as you have three or four mainstream so-called candidates who each are getting 7, 8, 12 percent, 13 percent of the vote, you don't have a sufficient bloc to stop Donald Trump or to stop a Ted Cruz. In that case, what happens is, the mainstream guys carve themselves up.

Trump and Cruz go on to be the two fight it out. I think ultimately one mainstream candidate has to emerge and then you are going to have that mainstream guy against Trump, against Cruz, and that's the future of the race. The question is, who will that be?

BALDWIN: It goes back to that circular firing squad we heard from House Speaker Paul Ryan, you know, to your point.

On Governor Bush and Donald Trump, listen, we have been watching this. We have been watching them back and forth for quite a while. But it's really become personal recently. What do you think this is about? Is it because Jeb Bush attacks Mr. Trump back, or do you think there's more to it?

FLEISCHER: No, I think Jeb is just finding his voice and finding his grounding now at long last.

I think it took him a while to get to the point where he started to really go after Trump, and he has. And he's been doing it regularly. He did it very well in the debate Saturday night. And I think there's a sense of Jeb that he really is personally offended by the tactics that Donald Trump uses. Jeb comes from the much more soft, thoughtful school of Republican politics. Donald Trump is the bull in the china shop.

Jeb's problem this year is the Republican Party wants somebody who can bang on the table and change things. It's not the right cycle for Jeb in that case.