Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Candidates Make Last-Minute Push For N.H. Support; Voters Head To Polls In Nation's First Primary; New Hampshire Secretary of State Predicts Record Turnout; A Chat With Undecided Voters From New Hampshire; Do Undeclared Voters Hold The Cards In The Granite State? Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired February 09, 2016 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:30:00] ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY FOR GEORGE W. BUSH: Well, that Trump is the (inaudible) China shot.

Jeb's hard problem this year is the Republican Party wants somebody who can bang on the table and change things. It's not the right cycle for Jeb in that case and I think that's why his debate performances early didn't work.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: I was just talking to Conservative Writer Matt Lewis and we were talking about why he thinks all of a sudden Jeb Bush has emerged as this -- he just appears here in New Hampshire really comfortable in his own skin, you know, seems at ease. There's been video of him tossing snowballs.

And he said that's because Jeb knows he's going to lose. He wants to take down Marco Rubio tonight. That is priority number one, but beyond that, he's going to lose and so he's feeling OK. Would you agree with that?

FLEISCHER: You know, I was in politics for 21 years. I've been around a lot of races but what always happen is, as you get closer to the Election Day, every candidate loosens up.

They've been doing it for a while and they finally reach the point where they just say, "I don't care what's going to happen, the voters -- it's up to the voters now. I want to win but I'm going to be me.'' And then you get to see the more relaxed and more natural, take less orders from the staff so the stake ....

BALWIN: But so much money is at stake. If you look especially, Ari, forgive me but if you look so much especially to all the money that the Super -- that Jeb Bush Super PACs have raised.

FLEISCHER: Sure.

BALDWIN: Can you really just say, "All right, push that to the side, I'm just going to be me?"

FLEISCHER: Yeah, well, of course. What works in politics is authenticity. Everything else is always fraught with risk and danger.

What the voters really look for in a presidential where they see you live on T.V. so often is, "Who are you and can I trust you, do you have strength, do you have a spine?'' And that's what people are looking for. And that's specially the case this cycle when people are so frustrated and fed up with all things in Washington. That's the only reason that Donald Trump can be successful this cycle so far, is because of the "Throw them all out" move that the Republican electorate and looks like the Democratic electorate in New Hampshire is in.

BALDWIN: You're right, authenticity is everything. Let's talk about this potential curve ball. And former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg ...

FLEISCHER: Yeah.

BALDWIN: ... you know, he's back in the headlines today because he talks to "The Financial Times," saying he is, "Looking at all the options, considering running for president." A, do you think he should?

FLEISCHER: I sure hope he does, because it will really throw the election to the Republicans. He will steal so much more from a Democratic base than he will from a Republican base. He's just culturally a northeast liberal. And that's going to really hurt him in much of the rest of the country.

And so, you know, he said he won't run if Hillary is the nominee and that also tells you something, that he is close enough to Hillary ideologically and temperamentally, politically that he won't throw his hat in the race if she's a nominee because she's fine with him. That tells you a lot as a Republican.

If it's Sanders and if it's Trump, he says, he'll get in for sure. Sanders and Cruz, he'll get it. That tells you a lot. I think he would be a Republican dream come true.

BALDWIN: Moving on, you wrote this opinion piece in 2014, Ari, in "The Washington Post," essentially mapping out how Republicans could win back the White House.

FLEISCHER: Yeah.

BALDWIN: And some of what you wrote, specific and positive agenda, was on the list, "Act in a more open and inclusive manner, win back Hispanic voters."

FLEISCHER: Yeah.

BALDWIN: Do you think these Republican candidates are listening to your advice or are they doing just the opposite?

FLEISCHER: You know, Donald Trump sure isn't, and the question for Donald Trump is, he is likely as a Republican going to get the lowest percentage of Hispanic and African-American votes of any candidate in modern times. Can he make up for it by pulling up so many more blue collar Democratic workers who will leave the Democratic Party to vote for Donald Trump and still win? But there's an opening for whoever, if it happens, whoever beats Donald Trump to be able to say, "I took Donald Trump on. I took on the man who said he would exclude Muslims from coming to the United States. I took on a man who sounds like he's so anti-immigrant and I won.'' That in itself is a credential that you can then use to go back to the general electoral and make your case that you are open, you are inclusive, you are that type of Republican.

Look, the demographics are daunting for Republicans. Ideologically is the single most important factor to winning. It's what trust people to you because they think you have the ideological North Star that they find strong and supportive.

But secondarily, you have to make people like you. And if people think you don't like them or want them in this country, they will never be for you. And that something Republicans have got to be mindful of in a country that's increasingly less white, more Hispanic and increasingly African-American in terms of turnout.

Now, the one kicker here is with the African-American vote the same proportion it has in the last two cycles without Obama on the ballot and that could change the math of election turnout as well.

BALDWIN: Ari Fleischer, thank you very much. We'll see you at the convention, if not, before then. Thanks.

FLEISCHER: Thank you, Brooke, see you soon.

BALDWIN: Coming up, should we expect the unexpected when it's already been this totally unpredictable election cycle by the way? We'll talk to the experts what they think will happen tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS CHRISTIE, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is far from over.

[15:35:00] We have work to do. This is going to be incredibly close, everybody. Nobody, not me, not Jeb Bush, not John Kasich, not Marco Rubio, not Ted Cruz, have the first idea of what's going to happen tonight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: And we are back here in Manchester, New Hampshire. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you for being with me here.

Listen, it's decision day, I don't have to tell you that, you know that. And what will be the first of many presidential primaries to come.

[15:40:01] Turnout so far, we're hearing it's steady, may even break records. That's what's anticipated according to the New Hampshire Secretary of State. Something to remember as we wait for polls to close in some hours, New Hampshire voters are known for their strong independent streak. So what should we watch for as these votes come in?

Joining me from Washington, our CNN Political Director, Mr. David Chalian, and CNN's Chief Political Analyst who you will see also until the wee hours tonight, Gloria Borger. So great to have both of you on.

And, David Chalian, to you first, what are the top three things you will be watching for?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, start, Brooke, with what you just read there in your intro, which is independents. I believe that -- one of the first things I'm going to look at is to see how independents split here.

In our last tracking poll, they were splitting between the two parties. As you know New Hampshire, they can choose to play in either the Republican or the Democratic Party. Which one do they choose to play in and how does that affect the Trump and Sanders vote totals? Those are the candidates that have been drawing from the independents. So that -- that is the first thing I am watching for.

I'm also watching for what the voters tell us they're looking for. This is the head versus heart argument. I want to see, are New Hampshire voters coming out tonight to back the person they think has the best chance of winning in November or are they out there to express their anger and back the person that they think close more -- most closely shares their values?

And then of course, I am looking on the Republican side to see slot number two through number five. What is the distance between second and fifth place? Because of all those folks are bunched up, that is going to be a muddled mess that the Republican Party's going to need to sort out in these contests ahead.

BALDWIN: Yes. Ari Fleisher just told me, he called it the muddle in the middle.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah.

BALDWIN: And he officially was saying, you know. Gloria, if they're all so close they could truly all continue on, meaning it could still not winnow down.

BORGER: Sure. Look, I think the one thing, you know, to pick up on where David left off is this question about the so-called establishment lane and the question of whether Marco Rubio, whom we were all talking about coming out of Iowa after he got the bronze in Iowa, whether he can distinguish himself from the rest of that establishment lane. Or whether somebody like a John Kasich or a Jeb Bush could, you know, move ahead of him. And what the margins are among those folks really, really matters.

I'm also, you know, going to look for Donald Trump and what his margin is. I mean, he has been ahead in the, what, last 30, 40 polls? I can't even keep count anymore. But we have to see whether his margin has been as high as, what, 31 percent. We have to see how large that margin is. And again, how far behind that second place finisher would be.

Also, I think we have to look at Cruz here, whom we seem to be forgetting these days, and see whether he's got enough staying power in this race. He doesn't want to turn into a Huckabee or Santorum who won Iowa and then went on into oblivion.

I mean, Ted Cruz has to show that even though New Hampshire is inhospitable to him with a low number of evangelicals and very conservative Republicans, he's got to show that he has the staying power to raise the money, to compete well in the south, which I believe he's going to do, but then on into the Midwest, and as a general election candidate.

BALDWIN: What about -- we mentioned a second ago John Kasich because listen, there's been a lot of sniping, especially recently, ratcheted up between certain candidates. But for the most part, he hasn't done a lot of mudslinging.

And, David Chalian, I'm curios with regard to the Ohio governor, do you think down the road a positive campaign can actually work?

CHALIAN: Well, I think positive campaigns work until they need to go negative. And I think that John Kasich is not in a one-on-one race right now. So I don't think going negative would serve him all that well.

Look at what Chris Christie did against Marco Rubio at that debate the other night. I don't think that did Chris Christie a huge amount of favor. I think that until you get into sort of one-on-one contest, the way that Trump and Cruz almost were in Iowa, and how they may be in South Carolina, that's when sort of taking down your opponent may help you out.

But when there are all these candidates, there's much more risk than going negative. So, I think if John Kasich does well and gets validation that even though he received the onslaught of a lot of negative advertising in New Hampshire, which he did, if he was able to sort of just respond with mostly positive messaging and still do well, he will certainly make note of that. There's no doubt about that.

BORGER: You know, the people who spent millions on negative ads on Marco Rubio were doing Kasich's work for him, right? You had Jeb Bush ...

BALDWIN: Right.

BORGER: ... spending millions against Rubio.

[15:45:01] Kasich didn't have to do it. You know, Cruz spending millions against Donald Trump. Kasich didn't have to do that. So he didn't have a huge amount of money to begin with, so why waste it doing that? BALDWIN: Gloria Borger, David Chalian, thank you. We will see you through the evening here ...

BORGER: It's going to be fun.

CHALIAN: It would be a fun night, Brooke.

BALDWIN: It will be awesome.

BORGER: Really great.

BALDWIN: It would be awesome.

BORGER: Really great.

BALDWIN: Thank you. And a reminder, this Thursday, in addition to watching with all of us tonight, Thursday, February 11th, CNN will be simulcasting the PBS "NewsHour" Democratic Presidential Debate, that will be live from Milwaukee, 9:00 Eastern here on CNN and your local PBS station.

Next, we talk so much about the voters, let's talk to the voters. They're the group that is making tonight's primary so unpredictable specifically independent voters.

Will they turn out? Who might they rally behind? I have two independent voters who are about to join me here on set, talk to me about who they're supporting and why. Don't miss this very important conversation next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you win big in Dixville Notch like I did, there's nothing else to say, I mean, it was huge. I just saw Trump, I said, "Trump, I crushed you." He goes, "Yeah, you did, you killed me."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:50:19] BALDWIN: If you have ever wondered why there are so much hype around the voters of New Hampshire, it may has to do with how unpredictable they can be.

Unpredictable, I'm looking at my voters next to me looking at them. I'm nearly half of this Northern electorate is filled with undeclared independent voters.

That means, they have the potential to push anyone candidates of victory tonight or to defeat no matter their party preference or what the polls may say.

And with the presidential race like this one, every vote count.

Here with me, they have driven through the snow to get to me here in Manchester. I am so grateful. I have Bruce McCracken, a resident of -- McCracken, McCracken, forgive me, Bruce McCracken from Wilburn, New Hampshire, who leans Democrat, Sarah Frances Thomas who leans Republican. Thank you so much for coming in.

This is what fascinates me. How many candidates have each of you met in person?

BRUCE MACCRACKEN, NEW HAMPSHIRE INDEPENDENT VOTER: In person, 10.

BALDWIN: 10?

MCCRACKEN: I've been to 12 rallies, but 10 ...

BALDWIN: 12 rallies, 10 candidates in person. Sarah?

SARAH THOMAS, WAS RAND PAUL SUPPORTER, NOW VOTING FOR TRUMP: Well, I attended about five different events but I met three of the candidates in person, which I really appreciated. That's it, ask them questions up close and get to really --they have feel for who they are as people.

BALDWIN: Let me stay with you. Who are you voting for?

THOMAS: I am voting for Trump.

BALDWIN: Tell me why and tell me who you were torn between?

THOMAS: Well, originally I started off supporting Rand.

BALDWIN: Rand Paul.

THOMAS: Yes, Rand Paul. I tend to lean a little libertarian and I really appreciated his Republican sort of perspective on that. I felt that he would do a good job of sort of bringing people together.

I ended up with Trump because despite how you feel about his over-the- top personality, you either love him or you hate him, you cannot deny that he is an incredibly smart and successful businessman, and he really comes from outside of that establishment politics zone.

And I think that's what our country really needs right now.

BALDWIN: OK. Trump for you. Bruce, for you?

MCCRACKEN: I voted for Kasich.

BALDWIN: Kasich.

MCCRACKEN: Although I normally vote Democratic. And I wouldn't ...

BALDWIN: This is the incredible part about New Hampshire.

MCCRACKEN: Well, I think both Democratic candidates will do very well running the country. I could live with either one.

I can't say the same about the Republican candidates. So, I definitely like some more than others.

BALDWIN: So hang on. Are you one of those voters who really, you would be voting Democrat but you're voting Kasich to keep a vote from a potentially another Republican?

MCCRACKEN: No.

BALDWIN: No?

MCCRACKEN: Well, I voted for the Republican that I felt would best run the country should the Democrats lose the election.

I think Kasich has executive experience. He shows some compassion. He shows ability to work with others. I certainly disagree with some of his policies and issues, but I think other Republican candidates, he is far and away the best one.

So, I really voted for Kasich as sort of an insurance policy.

BALDWIN: An insurance policy.

MACCRACKEN: So, the country would be in good hands if the Democrats lose.

BALDWIN: OK. OK, strategery. Why did you go out of your way to go to 12 different rallies? Why is this matter so much to you?

MCCRACKEN: When you see the candidates in person, it's very different than seeing in a 60-second sound bite or a Democratic debate where they are being -- questions fired at them and they're all tense.

They get a chance to talk and answer questions and take their time. And you see them as real people. There are candidates I would have assumes negative feelings about and came out, well, they're decent people.

I might not agree with them and I might not vote for them, but they're decent people.

BALDWIN: That's the amazing part about New Hampshire that you all truly meet this people, you shake their hands, they come pounding on your doors, they call you on the phone.

Why, though, when we talk so much about independent voters who will decide this primary, why is it such a last minute decision for a lot of people, do you think?

THOMAS: Well, because we do have the opportunity to meet with so many of the candidates.

I think that we've really try to get out there and attend as many events as we can.

We take things very seriously here in New Hampshire. We know our responsibility as being the first primary in the nation and that really sends a strong message across the country. And we want to make sure that we're making the right decision.

So, we don't see a few political ads or watch one debate and then say, "Oh, that's my guy or girl."

We really think it over and take the time to, you know, think about it and figure out who's going to be the right choice, who we believe will be the right choice for the country.

BALDWIN: Have you already voted? Have you done here?

THOMAS: I have not. I'm actually heading to vote.

BALDWIN: There's still time if you want to convince on live national television.

Either way, by the way, I'm just being fair. I mean, I'm kidding, I'm kidding. Continue what we were you making ...

THOMAS: Oh, no, I was thinking, I'm heading out to vote actually right after this.

BALDWIN: OK. OK. At the end of the day, 60 seconds, what is it about New Hampshire that -- reading what the secretary of state has said when other states dare, you know, move their primaries up.

[15:55:02] He'll move the primary in New Hampshire to make sure you were the first in the nation primary because it matters. Why?

MCCRACKEN: Well, that is one thing where a small state and you can actually do the kind of, sort of, retail politics people talk about.

So, if you're real responsibilities and honor and a responsibility in New Hampshire, so we do take it seriously, as she said.

BALDWIN: Half the population of Iowa, I was reading the stat this morning, yet almost triple the number of people come out today to vote. Bruce and Sarah, thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

MCCRACKEN: Thank you.

BALDWIN: And we have of course special live coverage of the New Hampshire primary, officially starting minutes from now right here on CNN. Don't go anywhere.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:00:07] JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: And now, a very special edition of "The Lead" live from Manchester, New Hampshire, on primary day just hours away from the polls closing.