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Legal View with Ashleigh Banfield
Record Turnout Predicted; New Hampshire Primary; New Hampshire Primary Record. Aired 12-12:30p ET
Aired February 09, 2016 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[12:00:00] KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: To see you guys. Thank you so much.
And thank you all so much for joining us "AT THAT HOUR" for our very special edition.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: That's right, you're headed to a polling place -
BOLDUAN: That's right.
BERMAN: Where you'll be for the rest of the day. I'm headed back to New York to pick up our coverage at 2:00 a.m. Don't miss that.
LEGAL VIEW with Ashleigh Banfield starts right now.
ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield. And welcome to LEGAL VIEW.
The big day is here. We are not talking Mardi Gras, folks, but it is Mardi Gras, just in case you were wondering. The real party, though, to watch today are the grand old party and the Democratic Party, not in New Orleans, but in New Hampshire, the site of America's first presidential primaries. We could wax on and on about the candidates and the stakes and the polls, but today none of that matters because what really matters is the voters, finally.
And so I turn straight away to my CNN colleague, Joe Johns, who's at a polling station in Manchester, New Hampshire, with the voters.
And I'm looking behind you. It looks like it's not super busy where you are. But the story that we're hearing from the state where you are, Joe, is that it's supposed to be a record turnout today.
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Very fast clip, I think you would say, Ashleigh. Right now so far as of just about five minutes ago when I checked, about 900 people have come through here. That is faster than normal for a presidential primary.
Now, just want to give you some idea of what's going on. Right here behind me, this line is for people to pick up their ballots. If you're a Democrat and you're a registered Democrat or you're a Republican and you're a registered Republican, then you have to vote in that primary. But if you're an independent, and 40 percent of people who are registered to vote in this state are independents, you can sort of choose to become a Republican or a Democrat for a day, or as it were a couple minutes here.
After getting the ballots, you cross to way over there to the voting booths. Boom, two minutes later, you have voted. You walk out the door. Come over here, right near the exit, and you see a woman standing over there by a podium. You fill out a little slip of paper and you can, just like that, turn yourself back into an independent. It's a very interesting process in this state. It certainly promotes increased voting. And I can tell you, that's one of the reasons why there's so much unpredictability in the state of New Hampshire in the primary, Ashleigh.
BANFIELD: And they can do it to thwart someone they don't like on the other side, which is also really interesting when you think about the magic of it all.
JOHNS: That's right.
BANFIELD: All right, Joe Johns, keep an eye on it for us. Thank you, sir. Do appreciate it.
New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan is live with me now on the telephone from Concord.
Thank you so much, Mr. Scanlan. It's great to have you. This is your day. I'm assuming you're busy. So I won't keep you long. But I do want to know about these - these calls for record-breaking turnout. I know that your boss, the secretary of state, said it was going to be a record-breaking day. You still think so?
DAVID SCANLAN, N.H. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE (via telephone): It is looking very good. The turnout is strong, it's steady. It's too early to say whether it's actually going to be a record or not. But if the - if the trend continues, it could very well be.
BANFIELD: And then what about the weather? That is always an issue when it comes to the northern states and you in particular. What does it look like?
SCANLAN: Well, we had a snowstorm last night, which is not unusual for New Hampshire in February. But the snow ended about the time that the polls were opening. The sun came out. And it's a beautiful, chilly day, but blue sky and clear roads.
BANFIELD: And what about the polling stations? We've got a live shot up right now from Manchester. Our Joe Johns was saying that the voting was sort of at a steady clip. Any issues with sort of the voting machines and the actual systematic method by which people get their votes counted?
SCANLAN: No. The phones in my office have actually been relatively quiet today, which is a good sign. It means things are running well in the polling places throughout the state. We've had one call of just a minor hiccup with one of the voting machines. But other than that, things seem to be going very smoothly.
BANFIELD: And not to suggest that you don't have other work to do. You are in the office of the secretary of state. So there is other business. But this is big business for you. This is a big day for your state, for New Hampshire. Mr. Scanlan, I wanted to ask you about the general tenor of the campaigns that you've been watching in your state and of the enthusiasm in response to it. Can you sum that up for me?
SCANLAN: This has been a great campaign season. We have quality candidates on both sides of the ballot. New Hampshire is an easy state for a candidate to get their name on the ballot. We have 30 candidates on the Republican side and 28 on the Democrat side. The tone and the tenor of the debate has been great. There's a lot of competition out there. The citizens of New Hampshire have been enthusiastic and passionate in their support of candidates. And that's why we believe it's going to be a strong record turnout.
[12:05:10] BANFIELD: Well, it's great of you to take a few moments to speak with us. Mr. Scanlan, thank you. And all eyes are on you and your office and this race. We'll continue to watch throughout the day. Thank you again.
SCANLAN: You're welcome.
BANFIELD: Good luck to you.
Our coverage continuing now. Want to take you straight to my fellow CNN anchor, Erin Burnett, who is live on location in the great state of New Hampshire.
It's been such a busy day already, and it's only noon.
ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: I know. It has. And everyone was talking about those lines earlier in the morning. I guess time will tell, Ashleigh, if it really turns into this record-breaking turnout. The former governor was telling me, look, they thought they could get 65 percent, up from 55 percent last time. So it could be, obviously, a very significant number tonight.
It's going to be four more years, of course, before voters here can expect to get their coffee topped off by a sitting governor who's running for president. They take it for granted here. You know, it's like when it's close to you, you don't always appreciate what you've got.
Strange things happen, though, on primary day. Ohio Governor John Kasich showed up at the Red Arrow Diner here in Manchester, working the breakfast crowd. And he was literally pouring coffee. The governors - it's kind of broken down into a few groups here. The governors, you've got Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie, they are collectively known as the governors and they are trying to do well enough to get down to the south, beginning with South Carolina.
This morning Christie told our own Chris Cuomo that his bags are already packed.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My airline reservation is for 8:00 tomorrow morning to South Carolina. I intend to be on that plane and go. I don't have ESP and I don't know what's going to happen tonight, but I feel like the trend is in the right direction for us. I think we're going to do well tonight. And then we're going to get right back in the fight in South Carolina. And it will be a fight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: All right, so you've got the governors. And then you have the senators, of course. You've got Rubio fighting there with Cruz. One of the senators telling CNN's Dana Bash today that he, too, plans to leave New Hampshire on a high note.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: How you feeling about things?
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm feeling great. We really are. Seen a lot of energy. A lot of people coming into the office last night just to volunteer at the last second. So we feel great. We're going to leave here with more delegates than we came in, and we feel very positive about that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: All right, I want to bring in my panel. Ron Brownstein is CNN's senior political analyst and editorial director of "The National Journal," Bakari Sellers is a CNN commentator who supports Hillary Clinton for president, and Kayleigh McEnany is a Republican strategist and columnist who supports Donald Trump.
OK.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.
BURNETT: All the cards are on the table.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
BURNETT: So this is it. All right, we were just joking, the three of us, the ballot.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
BURNETT: Joe Johns is at a balloting place and was kind of holding one of them up. There are 58 people running for president. Just in case you're out there, everybody, you've really been missing it.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes.
BURNETT: Fifty-eight people are on the ballot here between the Democrats and Republicans.
BROWNSTEIN: Fifty-eight people. Yes. Fewer who actually really matter. But, yes, it is - it is quite -
BAKARI SELLERS, CNN COMMENTATOR: They all matter.
BROWNSTEIN: It is - this is the best show in American politics, the New Hampshire primary.
SELLERS: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: I mean it's just - you know, it's a bigger kind of more structured thing than the Iowa caucus. You get - voters get to see candidates. You meet voters who said, I've only met them three times, I haven't made up my mind. And by the way, maybe it's because the "X- Files" is back on TV, but Chris Christie is talking a lot about ESP lately. He talked about it in the debate with Marco Rubio -
BURNETT: I just had a flash back to junior high.
SELLERS: I know. You saw me, I just dozed (ph) off.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes. I mean ESP this morning. But, look, I mean it does - it - it has been a - it has been a consequential event. Doesn't always pick the winner of the nomination, but it really does help winnow the field.
BURNETT: All right, so what about the expectations game because, Kayleigh for you it's all about that, right? Donald Trump really needs to do as well as his polls. If he does significantly less, that's going to hurt him after Iowa.
KAYLEIGH MCENANY, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: And he learned a very valuable lesson in Iowa, where he overplayed the expectations where he said he would be the winner. He learned a valuable lesson and kind of pivoted and said, you know, hey, in New Hampshire, if I win by just one voter, that's a victory. That's exactly what you want to do. He learned a good lesson.
And really all the candidates did. You see Rubio downplaying expectations. You've seen Kasich - well, Kasich's kind of hyped it a little. But I'd say by and large everyone's lowering the expectations so when they come out a little bit better than they expected, they then have a case to carry on to South Carolina and to the SEC primary states.
BURNETT: Everybody has been lowering expectations. I'm getting kind of sick of it to be honest with you.
Bakari, on your side, everybody's lowering them as well. You know, Bernie Sanders wants to lower them because he doesn't want to have to win by a big margin. And Hillary Clinton wants to lower them because she figures, oh, if the marge isn't that big, she looks like a winner.
SELLER: We're going to see some epic spinning tonight.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
BURNETT: Yes.
SELLERS: This is going to be some legendary spinning. MCENANY: Yes.
SELLERS: I think we - we saw - we got a taste of it in Iowa. When I actually saw Marco Rubio's speech out of Iowa, I thought he won the primary. I didn't know he came in third. And the Clintons do a very good job. You know, Bill Clinton's called the comeback kid in New Hampshire. He lost by nine points, OK?
BROWNSTEIN: He got 19 percent, yes, yes.
SELLERS: So - so, I mean, I - we'll see what happens tonight. But I do think if Hillary Clinton stays around ten points or gets beat by ten points or less, that is a good night for her. We don't know what's going to happen in New Hampshire. She was up by nine points. I mean down by nine points against Barack Obama and actually won the race. But if Bernie Sanders loses, if Donald Trump happens to lose, the emperor has no clothes.
BURNETT: I mean that would be stunning. I mean -
BROWNSTEIN: It would be.
BURNETT: Every one of the campaigns, Ron, when we've been talking to them, having operatives on, have said they expect Donald Trump to win.
BROWNSTEIN: And Bernie Sanders.
BURNETT: But, yet, he has had a ceiling here at 30, 31 percent.
BROWNSTEIN: And what benefits Trump is that the process that many Republicans thought was going to happen here doesn't look like it's going to happen. And, in fact, the most important thing that happens in New Hampshire may be something that doesn't happen, which is a consolidation of that main street (INAUDIBLE).
[12:10:05] BURNETT: OK, so it's still going to be - you're going to have these people bunched together.
BROWNSTEIN: If you - right, you have Cruz as an evangelical favorite, you have Trump doing very well with blue collar voters everywhere. That white collar, center right, mainstream conservative bloc, which has picked the last two nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney, remains fragmented. It looked like coming out of Iowa Marco Rubio had a chance to consolidate it. After the debate, even if he does well here, I think that consolidation will be put back. And that advantages is Cruz and Trump going into South Carolina.
BURNETT: All right, so how many people are going to come out of here viable? At least five it sounds like you're saying?
BROWNSTEIN: More than we thought. Four - four or five. And -
SELLERS: I've got five.
BURNETT: Five.
MCENANY: I've got five, but then I saw Christie there already had his ticket book, so that leaves me to be six.
SELLERS: Well, he could - but it's not nonrefundable.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
SELLERS: I don't - I don't see Christie -
MCENANY: He bought the press (ph) ticket.
SELLERS: I don't see Christie making it out. I do see Kasich making it out, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, and Trump. And what I'm watching for tonight is something very, very particular. If Jeb Bush lands ahead of Marco Rubio, then the race is on.
BROWNSTEIN: Right.
MCENANY: Yes.
SELLERS: The race is then on for that whole establishment lane and it gives - it gives - it gives Bush some life.
BROWNSTEIN: You know -
BURNETT: Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: Precedent isn't prophecy, but it's worth noting that in the modern primary era, the Republicans have never nominated someone who didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire. And Democrats have only done it twice.
MCENANY: And if Trump wins, that points to the fact that this is an outsiders election. We saw in Iowa nearly 70 percent of the vote -
SELLERS: Right.
MCENANY: Went to outsider candidates. I include Ted Cruz among those candidates. It's astonishing. Something like we've never seen. And Ron and I were talking about earlier, it's kind of the mirror image opposite of what we saw last time around where you had conservatives splitting the vote and leading to the coronation of Mitt Romney. Now it's establishment is footing the vote leading to the coronation possibly of the conservative (INAUDIBLE).
BROWNSTEIN: One other thing with watching the Democratic side, real quickly, not only the overall margin, what happens among Democrats? Bernie Sanders had a big margin among independents in Iowa. He's going to have a big margin among independents here. But he lost Democrats in the exit polls in Iowa.
BURNETT: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: If Hillary Clinton stays close here, in the long run, that's a challenge he's going to have to get over because you can't win a party's nomination ultimately without winning voters -
BURNETT: Without that party. BROWNSTEIN: Without winning voters from that party. (INAUDIBLE) truism. Yes. Yes.
BURNETT: OK, but not always.
All right, thanks so much to all three of you.
SELLERS: Thank you.
BURNETT: Bakari Sellers, Ron Brownstein and Kayleigh McEnany, thank you.
And looking at the polls today, looking to be a very good one for Bernie Sanders. But, again, that's the polling. We'll see what's actually happening at the polls. Hillary Clinton has been struggling to win over women this time around. How will she fare in the battle over the next two big states? That stuff coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:16:04] BANFIELD: It is primary day in New Hampshire and you're looking at live pictures of voters who are heading to the polls in Hudson, New Hampshire. That's in the southeastern part of the state, about 35 miles from the Massachusetts state line.
New Hampshire's secretary of state said he's predicting a record turnout in today's voting, but then his deputy said, whoa, we're going to hold off on that prediction. Things look good, but it's only midday, so we're going to hold off and see how things go.
Turnout, of course, critical, crucial you would say. Both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are making their final pitch to the voters there as they get ready to cast their ballots. If turnout is high today, I believe this is the tweet - "if turnout is high today, I believe we will win. I urge you to come out and vote today. Thank you," says Bernie Sanders this morning.
Hillary Clinton also with an embedded video of children in her tweet saying that they were voting for their future. Mrs. Clinton could make history as the country's first female president, yet many young women are actually supporting Bernie Sanders.
I want to talk more about this and other issues. With us, CNN political comment Tara Setmayer, Democratic strategist Sally Kohn and Robert Zimmerman.
All right, I have a sound bite but I love going into the past and pulling things out from years and years ago, whether they're prophetic or whether they just, you know, give us some sort of metaphor for the day, but this one's great. It's from 2008 when Clinton largely carried the women's vote in the state. She won. I want you to listen to what she said as she wrapped up her campaign, however, in June, about the women's vote. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Although we weren't able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it's got about 18 million cracks in it. And the light is shining through like never before, filling us all with the hope and the sure knowledge that the path will be a little easier next time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BANFIELD: The path will be a little easier next time. Robert Zimmerman, not so. Not so.
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, Ashleigh, I don't concur with you on that.
BANFIELD: You don't?
ZIMMERMAN: I don't indeed. I think in many -
BANFIELD: She is struggling with the women's vote.
ZIMMERMAN: But here's the point. I think in many part of our country, we've seen the path much easier for women. In New Hampshire, women hold every major - Democratic elected women hold every major position in that state.
BANFIELD: Oh - oh, I agree with you. I'm only talking about Hillary.
ZIMMERMAN: Oh, for Hillary, let me tell you something -
BANFIELD: I think we're only talking about Hillary in this segment.
ZIMMERMAN: Look, there's no question, she has to work harder.
BANFIELD: Yes.
ZIMMERMAN: But my point simply is, she has to work harder to reach young voters without question. Likewise, Bernie Sanders has to work a lot harder to reach a more diverse population, more diverse audience. Hillary won amongst women in Iowa by 11 percent. She's up amongst women in South Carolina, 67-31. The dynamics of New Hampshire make that state different and make it more of a challenge.
BANFIELD: And I'll give you the poll for New Hampshire, just since you mentioned Iowa. Yes, she got crushed by Bernie by women in New Hampshire, but, you know, it's - or rather in Iowa. But in New Hampshire, it looks awful for her. Eighty-seven percent of 18 to 34- year-old female Democrats were polled just - you know, this is February 4th to 8th. So this is really only a week's worth of data here ago - 87 to 9 percent.
Tara, I'm going to skip you for a moment -
TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: OK.
BANFIELD: Because I know how you feel about Hillary Clinton, my friend. SETMAYER: Right, but I was going to - I was going to say something
about Robert saying that there is all these women that were elected in New Hampshire. That's actually hurting Hillary Clinton because their desensitized to the whole -
BANFIELD: That's a good point.
SETMAYER: History of electing a woman. They're like, we've been doing this for a while. So using that -
BANFIELD: It's not a factor.
SETMAYER: Right, it's a nonissue for us, particularly women who are younger.
ZIMMERMAN: That was - that was my point, yes.
BANFIELD: Qualities (ph) achieved (ph).
SETMAYER: They're like, no, you need to earn it, not because you're a woman.
BANFIELD: So I get that, but those numbers, 18 to 34-year-old women, Sally, 87 percent of them for Bernie, 9 for - that sways even farther away - because you would think if Sara - or if Tara's point and Rob's point are - that would be 50/50. It's not.
SALLY KOHN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No. Well, look, I mean, I have to sort of sum this up. This was actually months ago. Even before Bernie was surging, I spoke with an older white female friend, registered Democrat, in New Hampshire, we were sitting in New Hampshire on my father-in-law's porch and I asked her who she was supporting and whether - and she was supporting Bernie, and whether Hillary was a factor in wanting a woman president. And she said pointblank, oh, I definitely want a woman president. I just don't want her to be president.
[12:20:25] And I think that's, frankly, how a lot of progressives, Democratic voters feel. I want a woman president, I just don't want her to be a hawk. I don't a woman president, I just don't want her to be so cozy with big business and Wall Street.
ZIMMERMAN: But that's just - but (INAUDIBLE). But if you go into more diverse states, more states that look like the face of the Democratic Party, Hispanic women, African-American women. Basically the states that look like the face of America today, that's where she's doing so well in the Democratic contest. Not just amongst women, as I mentioned with South Carolina, where she's winning more by 2-1, but amongst Democrats, as well, in the African-American community and the Hispanic community.
BANFIELD: Are we getting too wound up, ladies, on these two states, Iowa and New Hampshire?
SETMAYER: Yes.
ZIMMERMAN: Absolutely.
BANFIELD: Because as we move on to South Carolina and then Nevada - Robert's right, she is crushing things.
SETMAYER: Look -
KOHN: Maybe.
SETMAYER: Maybe. But the problem here is that I don't think the Hillary Clinton campaign anticipated that she would be this far behind with 18 to 34-year-old voters. I don't think they anticipated that. I thought that - remember, she was -
BANFIELD: She wasn't.
SETMAYER: No. Remember, I mean, in one of the -
BANFIELD: It's been closing. What happened? What's she's been doing over the last few months that have (INAUDIBLE)?
SETMAYER: Yes, in one of the many - yes, in one of the many iterations of her - you know, reinvention, the whole, I'm running as a woman thing was something that she thought was going to be an asset for her. And it's turned - it's turned completely on her - on its head. In Iowa, she lost women - she lost women voters really bad.
(CROSS TALK)
BANFIELD: She's been running as a woman.
SETMAYER: No, because that was her original thing. She's had to reinvent herself like five times. The running as a woman thing isn't working for her. It's not working.
ZIMMERMAN: That's just - that's just - that's just my friend Tara's partisan rhetoric.
SETMAYER: No, it's true.
ZIMMERMAN: This is not about reinvention.
SETMAYER: Bear it out, Robert. The polls bear it out.
KOHN: So, wait, wait, wait. OK. They're both right. Let me - let me - let me - let me try and so -
ZIMMERMAN: And we think you're wrong.
KOHN: Their - thank you. Everybody agrees I'm wrong.
SETMAYER: Most of the time women, young women are saying it themselves, not me.
KOHN: Listen, look, it's true. Hillary ran away from the sort of unique historical nature of her candidacy when she was running in 2008 and has sort of championed the women's power agenda of her candidacy this time around. That is totally true. Also true is what Robert's saying, that we can't sort of say women are a monolith. Women of color still prefer Hillary Clinton. That is - but that is true.
SETMAYER: For now. For now.
BANFIELD: So I - on the same - I'm flat out of time but I really need a yes/no answer from all three of you, and it is a yes/no only, so promise me.
ZIMMERMAN: OK.
BANFIELD: Look, Bernie is crushing in New Hampshire by more than 2-1, 61-30 I think it is, the last polling. Is it a win for Hillary if she only loses by single digits?
ZIMMERMAN: Absolutely. This - New Hampshire's all about beating expect -
BANFIELD: OK.
ZIMMERMAN: OK.
BANFIELD: That's it. Only you.
SETMAYER: No.
BANFIELD: No.
KOHN: Yes. Just like for Bernie in Iowa.
BANFIELD: All right, Tara Setmayer, Robert Zimmerman and Sally Kohn, thank you. Do appreciate it.
ZIMMERMAN: OK.
BANFIELD: Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are going to face off in the PBS "News Hour" Democratic presidential debate on CNN and your local PBS station. It's coming this Thursday night, 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time. So make sure you catch that. That will be fresh off some results. So there will be lots of new stuff that they're going to be talking about on those stages.
It has been said that Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents. The importance of today's primary not lost on the candidates. Hoping to win over the roughly 44 percent undeclared and independent. Yes, 44 percent. So how can those candidates sway them? And do so in the last minute? And who stands to benefit the most? That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:27:52] BURNETT: Welcome back to our coverage of the first in the nation presidential primary. I'm live here in Manchester, New Hampshire. It is decision day here. But how often do voters in New Hampshire actually decide on the candidate who goes on to win the nomination? They'd like to say it's all the time. So we wanted to check the facts. Tom Foreman takes a look.
Tom.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Erin.
Our latest polls show that right now about a third of Republicans do not know who they're going to vote for yet in the New Hampshire primary. About 15 percent of Democrats. Some people may wait until the very last moment, making it difficult to predict a winner based on the polls.
But how good is New Hampshire at picking nominees and presidents anyway? Here are all of the Democratic winners of the New Hampshire primary since 1976. And we're going to subtract from this all of the presidents who were in office trying to hold on to the job. And we wind up with seven people out there. Out of these seven who won in New Hampshire, how many became the party nominee? Just Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry. Just four of them. And out of those four, only one went on to become the president, and that was Jimmy Carter.
What about the Republican side? Is it different or better there? Well, let's lay them out since 1976. Once again we subtract all of them who were in office just trying to hold on. And that brings us down to seven. And again, if we say how many of these New Hampshire winners became the party nominee, we get four. Once more, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. And out of them, of course, only two actually became president.
So for all this talk about momentum and early leads, this really is just one step along the way to the presidency in New Hampshire here. And it's not a guaranteed step at all.
Erin.
BURNETT: All right, Tom.
So now let's bring back our panel, Bakari Sellers, Ron Brownstein and Kayleigh McEnany.
And, all right, this is pretty -
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
BURNETT: This is -
BROWNSTEIN: There are reasons for that. It's an interesting point.
BURNETT: That's a pretty damning, you know, it says, oh, my gosh, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, and he just blow it to smithereens.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, look - well, you know - right. You know, there's no single state, other than South Carolina on the Republican side, that's usually decisive. I think there are probably a couple of reasons for this. First, the outsiders role of independents. Not - you know, undeclared voters are about 45 percent of the vote in both the last Republican primary in '12 and the Democratic primary in '08. That's more than almost anywhere else. So it kind of skews the results.
[12:30:12] Second, on the Democratic side
