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Campaigns Head to South Carolina for the Next Primary; Sanders Pushing for Support of Black Voters; New Exit Polls from New Hampshire Reveals How Clinton Lost?; New Ad Touts Jeb Bush's Military Leadership Strength. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired February 10, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:01] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: That Governor Chris Christie will likely suspend his presidential run.

As Chris Christie steps off the trail to reassess, the other Republican candidates head -- head south, rather. Today they are canvassing South Carolina where the next primary looms less than two weeks away.

CNN's Victor Blackwell live in Bluffton where a Jeb Bush rally is scheduled for the next hour. Good morning.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Carol, good morning to you. And the Bush campaign very pleased with that fourth place finish last night in the New Hampshire. And now of course the race turns to South Carolina. That's the overall narrative but let's look at the subplots here. And starting with Bush v. Rubio.

The campaign believes that Marco Rubio was weakened by the poor debate performance last Saturday. Marco Rubio even admitting that the -- his fifth place finish last night was due in part to the poor performance there.

Let's also look at Bush v. Trump and Kasich. Jeb Bush spoke with "NEW DAY" this morning. Listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Trump's a master at capturing people's hate. But he hasn't offered a compelling alternative to where we are right now. He just says, I'll fix it, I'll solve it, it'll be fine, it'll be huge or whatever, but there's nothing tangible that would suggest he has the skills to do it.

Governor Kasich, I commend him for his election. He worked hard in New Hampshire, and came in second. But he has nothing going on down here. He has no tangible support.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: Donald Trump and Governor Kasich will, of course, be fighting for the evangelicals here. That fight will continue. But as the fight continues for the establishment lane, as Jeb Bush fights it out with Governor Kasich, the campaign believes that Governor Kasich just does not have the finances, does not have the structure, the infrastructure here in South Carolina to compete.

The campaign says they have 20 staffers working across this state out of four offices and we know, of course, that the governor's brother, former President George W. Bush, will be hitting the campaign trail here. The state has been good to the Bushes over the years. George H.W. Bush won here, George W. Bush won here, and they believe they have a strong narrative that Jeb Bush has the credentials to be commander-in-chief in these quite difficult times -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Victor Blackwell reporting live from Bluffton, South Carolina, this morning.

Joining me now to talk more about all of these late-breaking developments, Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill and CNN political commentator, and John Avlon, editor-in-chief of the "Daily Beast."

Welcome to all of you. OK. It's late-breaking developments about the Christie campaign. The Christie campaign is likely to suspend his presidential run.

Tara, what will this mean to the rest of the field?

TARA SETMAYER, FORMER CAPITOL HILL GOP COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, I think it was clear that Chris Christie engaged in a kamikaze attack on Marco Rubio and sacrificed himself to do it. Maybe he has an alliance with Jeb Bush, not sure, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an endorsement come from Chris Christie after he drops out for Jeb.

But, you know, I think this was expected. Everyone saw that Chris Christie put all of his political eggs in one basket in New Hampshire. He spent, you know, tens and millions of dollars there to come in sixth. People -- I think he told people, you know, to sit down and shut up one too many times in New Jersey and it didn't translate well outside of the state of New Jersey. I'm from new Jersey. I get it. So does Kellyanne. We understand that it doesn't, you know, go over very well.

COSTELLO: Yes, but, Kellyanne, that works for Trump, right?

KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: It does work for Trump.

SETMAYER: Different now. Different.

CONWAY: I think one of the untold stories of 2016, Carol, is that Christie was out-Christied by Trump. There is somebody with (INAUDIBLE). And look, Bridgegate, although Governor Christie has not been implicated in anything there, it really turned the narrative around. Before the victims of his elevated kind of talk were -- they were unions and they were Democrats and they were people who were living off the system but then it looked like it was commuters and it was everyday people.

And I think that's actually something that could hurt Trump in South Carolina and beyond if people start to see that he's not -- he says he's for the little guy but he's actually built a lot of his business on the backs of the little guy and he's a lot of little guys through eminent domain, or through not paying contractors after you built something. The little guys have, you know, suffered. So that's scenario I think hurt Chris Christie.

But look, Chris Christie will be remembered for taking down Marco Rubio a couple of pegs and for really stopping his quest for the -- to be the establishment favorite in his track. So maybe that's a good attorney general of the United States.

COSTELLO: I don't know. I don't know. John, what is your take on all of this?

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look, first of all, Kelly points out something important. But, you know, the Republican Party has -- had somebody who was able to talk bluntly and charismatically and have a no BS attitude. But with executive experience. Someone who had won in a Democratic state, who had won independents, who'd won women, who'd won Hispanics. And he came in sixth in New Hampshire.

Chris Christie deserved better. You know, he ran a strong campaign in many respects. He got the "Union Leader" endorsement. That attack on Marco Rubio was devastating, it was surgical and it was accurate. But Christie, like all governors, have been in this race, have been frustrated by the fact that their governing experience has not been an asset in this Republican electorate.

[10:05:05] And that's a source of real frustration because yes, governing requires creating coalitions, it requires to be a pragmatist, that may be out of fashion right now, and the governors all stuck together but he came third in that pack of three and that's a tough place to be if you want to make an argument for going forward.

COSTELLO: OK. Well, let's talk about another governor, shall we, that would be John Kasich who came in a surprising second. Right? He did pretty good.

Sara Murray was on the plane with John Kasich and she talked with him, and he seems ready to go, although he seems to think no one is going to attack him much but I think he's wrong about that. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When I traveled around to the polling places it was pretty clear. You know, I was running into everybody and they were like yes, we really like you and all that stuff. So, you know, I'm gratified by it for sure. I think it's fantastic. But I wouldn't say I was shocked by it.

I think it's going to be a long haul. And he did do well tonight and I -- you know, I congratulated him on it but I think it's a long road. And, you know, we just keep plugging. You know, and all the questions, all the doubts and everything, you know, I've been hearing this for so long, I guess for about 30 years, and so I'm sort of used to it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: All right. So the "he" that John Kasich was talking about was Jeb Bush who is now on to South Carolina. He's taking George W. with him, which I find interesting, right? And he's going to probably attack John Kasich on the basis that John Kasich isn't a real conservative, Tara.

SETMAYER: Yes. I mean, John Kasich is -- he's a conservative when it comes to budgeting. I mean, he was a conservative all the way until I guess many people would say he became governor of Ohio and expanded Medicaid and different things like that. But John Kasich actually is pretty -- I call him a pragmatic conservative on a lot of issues but this is also an interesting electorate for him, too. I mean, he is pretty establishment when it comes to this. I mean, he spent a lot of time in Washington. He is an establishment guy.

But John Kasich doesn't have the organization moving forward. He's limping out of here on fumes. He'll get a little bit of money, maybe, but you can't take on the juggernaut that is Jeb Bush's cap.

(CROSSTALK)

COSTELLO: Yes, but --

SETMAYER: They have $57 million.

COSTELLO: Because he only just have to show up in South Carolina, right? He doesn't have to win South Carolina or even have a good showing because he may not do --

(CROSSTALK)

COSTELLO: He's got to get to super Tuesday, right? He's waiting for the Midwestern states which he'll probably do well in.

CONWAY: He can. And John Kasich's best thing is still called Ohio. He gets to say to people, even those mad at him for expanding Medicaid, even those who's mad at him for sometimes scolding the rest of the Republican Party for not being as compassionate as he is, head and heart is his big thing. He gets to say, look, you don't win Ohio, you don't win the presidency, Republican Party. You need me on the ticket somewhere.

And, you know, an ironic thing has happened. The establishment lane that's completely in a car pile-up now and the conservatives are trying to show they're not the wing of the party anymore, they're the base of the party, Trump, Cruz, these outsiders placing -- Cruz wins Iowa, comes in third in New Hampshire. Trump wins New Hampshire.

And as a conservative, the establishment, it's all piling up and pointing figures, these big egos are pointing figures and saying, no, you get out. No, you get out. No, you get out. And look, Jeb Bush spent $36 million in New Hampshire.

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: Right.

COSTELLO: I know.

CONWAY: $1200 per voter.

AVLON: Yes.

CONWAY: You can't do that everywhere.

SETMAYER: And Ted Cruz spent $580,000. That's it. And came in third.

AVLON: Yes, look --

COSTELLO: John, go ahead.

AVLON: But there's not a pile-up. You've got two governors left, both of whom governed the quintessential swing states that you need in a presidential, Florida and Ohio. And the fact that, you know, so many conservatives for so long have said it's about fiscal issues, John Kasich's fiscal record, especially in Congress, is unimpeachable. And the fact that he's talking about compassionate conservatism and actually caring about the Florida middle class and the working class, and that that ends up being a disqualifier because it's seems soft and squishy is a sign of how far-right the Republican Party is moving right now.

CONWAY: It's not a disqualifier.

AVLON: But Kasich really deserves another look from folks and Bush certainly has the money to continue. It's a tough road throughout the SCC primary for a Midwestern governor, it's true. But Kasich had a big win last night against expectations. He deserves a little bit of credit for that.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. Kellyanne Conway, John Avlon, and Tara Setmayer, thanks to all of you.

CONWAY: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Senator Bernie Sanders is making a pit stop in Harlem this morning celebrating his resounding win in New Hampshire by trying to secure another one. An endorsement from the Reverend Al Sharpton. The two met for breakfast at a Harlem landmark, that would Sylvia's Soul Food.

Jason Carroll live there now. Good morning.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And good morning to you, Carol. And he's been celebrating for the past 15 minutes or so with Al Sharpton. Right inside Sylvia's the two are having breakfast right now as we speak. When Sanders showed up, he was met by applause from some of the folks who showed up outside of Sylvia's restaurant. Some of his supporters. He also showed up with Ben Jealous, former NAACP leader, got an endorsement from him. He's also hoping to get an endorsement from Al Sharpton. That is very clear. [10:10:01] What is also clear, Sharpton has not indicated who if

anyone he will support in this race. But it's very important going forward for Sanders to reach into the African-American community. Clinton is outpolling him in the African-American and Latino community. An endorsement from the Reverend Al Sharpton would definitely be a feather in his cap.

The two have been meeting, again, for the past 15 minutes inside Sylvia's. We're told that they'll be meeting for about 30 minutes. Sanders has a heavy schedule today. He's going to be doing a number of talk shows.

Something that's interesting, Carol, I know I spoke about this a little bit earlier this morning, but just reaching out and speaking to some of the folks who are out here, what is interesting is some of the older African-Americans that I spoke to seem to throw their support behind Clinton whereas some of the younger African-Americans I talked to said that they were going to give Bernie Sanders a shot.

So nothing is clear here despite what some of the polling is showing. Both candidates definitely have their work cut out for them -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. And Jason, you probably don't have a monitor outside but we do have these pictures of Bernie Sanders inside Sylvia's. I assume he's talking to the Reverend Al Sharpton. Here he is sitting at a table inside that diner. There he is. OK. So there he is. We've got a shot of that. So we'll see what happens.

Jason Carroll reporting live from Harlem, thank you.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, New Hampshire hits Clinton where it hurts. She lost big among women. Voters weigh in on why they picked Sanders, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:15:27] COSTELLO: Bernie Sanders won big last night and now new exit polls are painting just how painful the picture is for Hillary Clinton. Clinton losing big across groups of voters in New Hampshire to Sanders including women. Sanders topped Clinton by over 10 percent in that category. And from there the numbers, well, they just got worst for Clinton.

Tom Foreman in Washington with more. Good morning.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Carol. You know, the age line is just destroying Hillary Clinton right now. Look at what younger voters did here. She said she really wanted younger voters to see her sort of in the same way they did Barack Obama. But look at that, 83 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds went for Sanders. Just 16 percent for her. She did better with older voters just like she did in Iowa if you look at those numbers. But look at her margin there. That actually would be considered a big win normally. But when you compare it to what's happening with the younger voters, it doesn't look like much right now. That's part of the thing that is really hurting her here. Let's look at party I.D. as well. Sanders managed to really clean up

with the independents out there, 72 percent of the people who that call themselves independent but who voted on the Democratic side went his way, only 25 percent went for Clinton. And then if you look at the qualities of the candidates, this seems to be the key as to what's going wrong here. People who supported Clinton, look at this, they like the idea that they think she's electable, they like her experience in government, all the years she's been involved.

They believed she cares, 12 percent. Honest, 5 percent. That is eating her alive in this thing. We've been talking about it for a long time now because look at those numbers, think about that and now look at the same set of qualities when you talk about Sanders. Look, only 4 percent think he has electability but look at the honesty rating, 52 percent. The Clinton campaign has tried to say this is not an issue but when you see electability at 4 percent and experience at 6 percent, but honesty is that big of a tip here, this is absolutely an issue.

And I'm telling you, Carol, this place completely into this thing. The Clinton campaign is trying to handle right now but the speeches and what she's paid and whether she'll release the transcripts of them, whether you think that is right or wrong, whether she has anything that's wrong with that or not, it plays into this narrative that we saw among New Hampshire voters. They don't feel they can trust her.

COSTELLO: Interesting. Tom Foreman, thanks so much.

So let's talk some more about that. With me now, the director for the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato, and Democratic strategist Keith Boykin.

Welcome to both of you.

So, Larry, 4 percent of New Hampshire voters say Bernie Sanders is not electable, but a majority of the voters say he's trustable and it's the opposite for Hillary Clinton. So does that mean voters are willing to put someone into the primary that is not electable but honest? Which is --

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, apparently in New Hampshire they are.

(LAUGHTER)

SABATO: It's -- look, electability is always tough to sell. I think it works when you've been out of power for a while. It works for Bill Clinton in 1992 because Democrats have been out of power for 12 years. Ronald Reagan and Bush 41. But Democrats have been in power for eight years in the White House and they've had -- they had congressional control for some time. So I'll tell you, this is a real dilemma for the Clinton people. In fact there are a whole bunch of dilemmas wrapped in a dilemma for them and they are going to have to find ways out before the end of the primary season, much less in the fall if she is in fact the nominee which she's still favored to be. COSTELLO: So 5 percent of voters in New Hampshire, Keith, think

Hillary Clinton is -- that's really an appallingly low number. So what can she do to prove to voters that, yes, I am honest and you can trust me?

KEITH BOYKIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, that's going to be a tough question for her. I mean, she's been beaten up by the Republican Party and the establishment on that side for the past 25 years now. So I think what she's got to prove is that she's resilient, that she's been through these accusations going back to the Bill Clinton administration. She's been through them throughout her entire political career. But I think she's going to --

COSTELLO: Yes, but these are Democrats saying this. These are not Republicans.

BOYKIN: No, I know. But I think that the effect of the Republican attack machine against Hillary Clinton for two decades has had an impact on the way that even Democrats see her. You know, her biggest moment, her best moment during the campaign was probably the Benghazi hearing where she had a chance to just be an unfettered audience, unfiltered, just to be able to talk about what she really believes and I think that really helped her a lot, strangely enough, contrary to what Republicans are expecting.

[10:20:08] But what she really needs is a better playing field. New Hampshire is overwhelmingly white. She's going to South Carolina and Nevada, and that's where she has a much better playing field. She actually won the nonwhite vote last night in New Hampshire but the nonwhite vote is only 7 percent in New Hampshire. So it's not much -- not much to play with.

COSTELLO: No, not at all, Larry. But, you know, what Keith was saying reminded me of the vast white-wing conspiracy. And does that mean Hillary Clinton should bring that up?

(LAUGHTER)

SABATO: Well, I don't know that she wants to relive the '90s. That's for sure. But, you know, what Keith said actually has a lot of validity. She has been in the headlines almost every day for 25 years and you are going to take a lot of hits and you're going to develop scar tissue and also I think what we didn't fully recognize was the public has developed the scar tissue about Hillary Clinton and the Clintons generally.

This is an anti-establishment year. Which two candidates were originally named as most likely to oppose one another? Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush is in deep trouble, you know, despite his fourth place finish and 11 percent in New Hampshire or maybe because of it. And Hillary Clinton in that blowout in New Hampshire. Yes, it's a white state but it's liberal Democrats and, you know, this is something that the Clinton campaign, as I say, will have to focus on.

I don't know what the solutions are but I sure know, to win in the general election, it is not enough just to attract minorities. You have to get, you know, 38, 39, 40 percent of the white vote if you're a Democrat you want to win.

BOYKIN: I agree with what Larry said but it's not clear to me that just because she didn't win in New Hampshire means that she wouldn't be able to win the white vote, at least 38 percent of the white vote, in a general election. So I think those are two different things.

And I do think, you know, independents play a huge part in the vote last night. It was -- 40 percent of the voters were independents in the Democratic primary and Bernie Sanders won 72 percent of those. So it's not entirely reflective of what the Democratic Party thinks. The party still supports Hillary Clinton according to most polls. She's leading in most of the national polls and in many of the major states that are coming up next.

COSTELLO: I guess we'll leave it there and we'll just have to see what happens, as they say. Larry Sabato, Keith Boykin, thanks to both of you.

Coming up tomorrow, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, face off in the PBS "News Hour" Democratic presidential debate. It's going to be carried on CNN and your local PBS station Thursday night at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, with just one tweet, Kanye West sparks a social media storm. The rapper is weighing on in Bill Cosby. People are fired up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:22:22] COSTELLO: Checking some top stories at 27 minutes past, Ferguson, Missouri, could get slapped with a civil rights lawsuit after city officials said they want to make changes to a deal they worked out with the U.S. Justice Department. Under the proposed agreement with the Justice Department, Ferguson has to pay for reforms that include new staff and software. But the city council says it's concerned that the huge price tag for those reforms will cripple the city. The Justice Department fires back. They say changing the agreement now will create unnecessary delays and they are now considering legal action.

A big blow to President Obama's new rules on climate change. The Supreme Court has temporarily blocked the administration's clean power plan from going forward while it's challenged in court. 29 states are suing over the plan which limits greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.

Polarizing rap star Kanye West strikes again, sparking yet another social media uproar with this tweet. It says, quote, "Bill Cosby innocent."

Let's get more context about why he was weighing in or how he reached that conclusion but it did not sit well with many people including Sarah Silverman who responded, "Kanye, you can't be for real?"

It's not clear if this might be some kind of publicity stunt ahead of Kanye's new album which drops on Thursday.

And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

The 2016 race is on to South Carolina and Jeb Bush is trying to turn a fourth place finish in New Hampshire into a winning bid for president in South Carolina. He's tapping his brother, George W., for help. He -- George W. even made a new radio ad that debuted today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: This is President George W. Bush. We live in troubled times with the military deployed around the world. We need a strong leader with experience, ideas and resolve.

There's no doubt in my mind that Jeb Bush will be a great commander- in-chief for our military. Jeb has dealt with crises as the governor of Florida and he did so with resolve, steadiness and a calmness necessary in a good leader.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: CNN's Mark Preston is here to parse. So is George W. going to be on the campaign trail, his physical self, with Jeb Bush in South Carolina?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Well, that remains to be seen, Carol, but I have to tell you, talking to the Bush advisers over the past week, we knew this was coming. South Carolina is the state that is very welcoming to the Bush family. Now we saw Jeb Bush's mother up here in New Hampshire on the campaign trail. Another person who is beloved in the Republican Party.

Now Jeb Bush hasn't used his brother at all very much during this campaign. He has done some fundraising for him and quietly has, you know, of course done some advising behind the scenes.