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NATO Responds to Russia; Clinton Battles Sanders for Youth Vote; Pope Francis in Mexico; Michigan Governor to Testify in Congress; "Income Inequality" Gets Candidates' Attention; GOP Rivals Prep for Fierce Debate Tonight. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired February 13, 2016 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[16:00:11] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Top of the hour. 4:00 p.m. Eastern. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York.

We begin with four words that could have huge implications geopolitically, new cold war. Those words from Russia's prime minister today calling out NATO while speaking at the Munich Security Conference. Dmitry Medvedev described Russia's strained relationship with words that were once used to define a generation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DMITRY MEDVEDEV, RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): NATO's policy with Russia remains unfriendly and one could go as far as to say that we have sled back to a new cold war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: CNN global affairs analyst Kimberly Dozier is with us, also with us, Retired Army Lieutenant Gen. Mark Hurtling. Thank you both for being with us. Those words were the headline. A new cold war - when you look at this Kimberly, you argue Medvedev was just putting out in the open what U.S. and Russian officials have been saying for a while. Walk me through that.

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, we've been seeing some rising the tension between the U.S. and Russia at a number of points. In Syria it started out in Ukraine, the sanction against Russia over the annexation of Crimea in Ukraine have hurt. And this has been going on in the background. It's also been going on verbally. U.S. officials over the past year and a half have called Russia publicly an existential threat to the United States.

And Secretary of State John Kerry just today, again, called Russia's action in Crimea aggressive and called on them to step back. So now for the Russians to answer with their own war of words not surprising but I have to point out, we don't have nuclear weapons pointed at each other's capitals. So it's not truly a cold war.

HARLOW: No, it's a very important distinction to make, absolutely. Given you know that so many newspaper headlines will read this come tomorrow morning. General, to you. Let's listen to what NATO's top commander General Breedlove said in response to Medvedev today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFED MALE: Isn't this by definition the cold war? Arms build up close to us?

GENERAL PHILIP MARK BREEDLOVE, NATO COMMANDER IN EUROPE: Well, they are entitled to their understanding of this and their description of this. We in NATO do not want to see a cold war. We do not talk about it. It is not what we want to happen or anticipate happening. We're a defensive alliance who are arraying ourselves to face a challenge we see. That challenge is a nation that has once again decided that it will use force to change internationally recognized borders. So we take those appropriate actions to be able to assure, defend, and deter.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: General, when you hear what Medvedev said, right, a new cold war possibly, how does your position, and I mean you as in U.S. military position, change if at all when you hear words like that?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Poppy, first of all General Breedlove, I worked for him for a year when he was first the commander of Europe, UCom and (INAUDIBLE) and he's trying to tamp this down.

Let's take a look at actually what's happening. This is amazing because this is all going on at the Munich Security Conference, a yearly conference that pulls together all the ministers of defense, ministers of the interior, ministers of estate, some presidents to talk about what is important to Europe.

So over the last several days the Munich Security Conference has been talking about refugees from Syria, which they claim is partly Russia's fault. The Ukrainian issue which is completely Russia's fault, they are saying we are trying to reduce the actions which have sanctions on Russia so there is an attempt to reach out to Russia at this security conference and then you have Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Medvedev standing up saying we're about to ender a new cold war. Everyone in Europe is attempting to reach out and try and partner with Russia and yet Russia at this security event is taking an opposite track.

It's almost surreal what they continue to do as a militaristic aggressive state that is suffering economic problems right now.

HARLOW: And I'm so glad you brought up the economy, right, Kimberly, because that plays in all of this. The extent to which Russia's economy has been suffering now for more than a year has to play the role in the calculated words that he used.

[16:05:00]

DOZIER: Absolutely. It serves Putin's purposes to make it seem to the Russian people that the reason they're suffering at home is because Russia is getting beaten back or bullied by world powers. And to portray this as Russia simply protecting its clients in places like Ukraine, in places like Syria, against this wider aggressive western (INAUDIBLE). But the fact of the matter is Russia could simply start working with the west on a few different key areas and have some of those sanctions lifted. They're not going to do that.

HARLOW: Kimberly Dozier, thank you very much. We'll be watching what happens. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, thank you as well.

I do want to turn to presidential politics now. The stage is set, literally the stage is set for a Republican showdown tonight. Six candidates will be standing side by side, going toe to toe in a debate in South Carolina. Tonight, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, the front-runners will be in the middle. The growing rivalry between them, will also be front and center, will they take jabs on stage as they have off stage on the trail?

Trump has threatened to sue Cruz challenging whether he's a natural born citizen or not. Cruz unleashing several attack ads including one that accuses Trump of a "pattern of sleaze."

Let's get a preview of what we can expect tonight. CNN politics reporter Sara Murray and MJ Lee. Both of the debates side in Greenville, South Carolina. Sara, let me begin with you. This is an increasingly bitter feud between Trump and Cruz. But what is fascinating is two things. One, they generally don't seem to attack each other on stage, and, two, Trump's campaign manager, (INAUDIBLE) just came out yesterday, I believe, and said this is going to be a positive campaign from now on.

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes, Poppy, you know, even though (INAUDIBLE) is saying it's a positive campaign and even though Donald Trump pulled his attack ad against Ted Cruz, I think what we've seen is Donald Trump is just as sharp on the campaign trail. But I think when you look at tonight they have played nicely with each other on the debate stage.

I don't know how long that can last. South Carolina is very important to Ted Cruz. This is a state where he needs to prove he is beyond just an Iowa candidate, that he can win in other places. So if he doesn't mix it up on the debate stage with Donald Trump today I think he will probably look back on that and see it was a missed opportunity as we get into South Carolina.

HARLOW: And M.J., look, the polling does show the latest poll that Trump is ahead of Cruz in South Carolina but you've also got this really critically evangelical base that makes up about 50 percent of GOP primary goers in that state. Right? That is something that one would expect Ted Cruz to do a bit better with.

MJ LEE, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes, that's right. And I think we definitely saw that in the Iowa caucuses and that's why Ted cruz was able to do so well there. Donald Trump and others obviously tried to win over that constituency as well. In South Carolina they're trying to repeat that practice of winning over evangelical, winning over conservatives and of course, we can't forget the military and veterans community, both of which are also very influential and big in the state of South Carolina.

HARLOW: Huge. And that would arguably be why Jeb Bush is bringing in his brother, the former president, who is very, very popular in that state. Won the primary there when he ran.

Sara, I would be remiss not to mention Marco Rubio. The last time he was on a debate stage did not go well for him. Chris Christie attacked him. That hurt him. He admitted it is part of why he did not perform as well as he would have liked in New Hampshire. Now you have a debate stage without Chris Christie. What is Marco Rubio need to do tonight?

MURRAY: Poppy, it's hard to over state how high the stakes are for Marco Rubio tonight. Because he's going to have to prove that this was not a Rick Perry oops moment, the kind of moment that ends your campaign, that stops it in its track. He's going to have to come out with a fiery debate performance and take on some of his rivals because it's not good enough to just show up and deliver a solid performance at this point. Everyone is playing to win these states.

Remember this was a state where the campaign's original three, two, one strategy. Come in third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and win in South Carolina. Now that's looking like a very steep road. His campaign is being very tight lipped about how they're prepping for tonight. But you saw Rubio come out on New Hampshire primary night and say this will never happen again. Tonight will be a test of that.

HARLOW: Absolutely. Also tonight, M.J., Dr. Ben Carson is saying he's going to mix things up a little bit.

LEE: Yes. We also forget that Ben Carson is going to be on the debate stage because we're not really talking about him very much at this point in the race. We saw him really climb in the polls briefly. He was even ahead of Donald Trump at one point in the national polls. He was doing very well in Iowa and that was because he was appealing to conservatives and the evangelicals in the state of Iowa.

However, I think because questions have been raised about his ability to tackle foreign policy issues and talk about national security issues, you know, in the middle of the Paris attack, the San Bernardino attacks, when people really voters here really want a candidate who is going to be tough on national security.

And he has really failed to show that he can be that guy. And I think heading into South Carolina if he doesn't have a strong debate tonight and if he doesn't do well here, I think the question for him and his advisers is going to be, does he really have a path forward to move on and really have a long haul chance at becoming the nominee of the Republican Party.

[16:10:04]

HARLOW: Right. Increasingly talk becomes what does the road ahead look like especially as we lead up to and through March 1st, Super Tuesday. Thank you both very much. Sara Murray, MJ Lee, at the debate site. Again, CNN will have post-debate coverage, a special on CNN with our Erin Burnett starting right after the debate tonight.

Coming up next though, the former secretary of state Madeleine Albright mea culpa, her apology after suggesting that women who don't vote for Hillary Clinton, well, she analogized it to that famous quote of hers "women who don't support other women have a special place in hell." She want to say that is not exactly what I was talking about. We'll dig into that.

Also, Pope Francis with some tough love. His challenge to Mexico as he makes his first visit to that country.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton finds herself of duking it out with Bernie Sanders for a key voting bloc. Millennials. Listen to her concession speech after finishing second in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people, but I will repeat again what I have said this week, even - even if they are not supporting me now, I support them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Senator Sanders overwhelmingly carried the youth vote in New Hampshire. Look at that, 83 percent to Clinton's 16 percent, according to those exit polls. Why is this massive generational divide persisting? Because frankly we saw the same thing among young voters in Iowa.

With me now, Moumita Ahmed. She's a lead organizers for Millennials For Bernie. She's a national grassroots coordinator for People for Bernie, thank you for being with me.

MOUMITA AHMED, LEAD ORGANIZER, MILLENIALS FOR BERNIE: Thank you for having me.

HARLOW: What is it? He's not a millennial. He's 74 years old. He has struck a chord. What is it?

[16:15:01]

AHMED: It's just the things he's talking about. The issues, for example, student debt. It's almost always on every speech that he gives. And, you know, the fact that he wants to fight climate change, his record 40 years of consistency, really resonates with my generation.

HARLOW: Let me push back on that because he talks about free college. And when you ask experts, even I spoke to a liberal sort of market expert, an economic expert this week who is a democrat who said targeted free college is what you need. Only for those that really, really need it. Hillary Clinton talks about climate change. She talks about making college more affordable. Sometimes an even more specific ways than Bernie Sanders does. Do you ever worry that his message is very over-arching but the details are not there to execute them, like how to pay for free college.

AHMED: Right. I mean I think we need a more transformational leader and that's what I'm concerned with, is having a leader whose motto is we're going to do it, we're going the fight, we're going to get young people engaged, and whatever is impossible, make it possible. And versus I'm sure Hillary has great ideas, but, you know, Bernie is really - he's a transformational leader.

HARLOW: Do you see President Obama in the same light that you see Bernie Sanders, right? He, of course, ran on that platform of hope and change.

AHMED: Right, yes, I do.

HARLOW: Even though he's had such a hard time getting things through this Congress?

AHMED: He's had a hard time and part of it is because a lot of young people my age aren't politically engaged. With Bernie Sanders we see that we are becoming more politically active.

HARLOW: Even more so than in electing President Obama?

AHMED: Absolutely.

HARLOW: That's interesting because Hillary Clinton's husband, the former president Bill Clinton came out in the past few weeks and said, "look, Bernie Sanders is no Obama," just in terms of that enthusiasm.

AHMED: Right. No one is Obama. Obama is, you know, what he was advocating for, specific to him and his legacy. It's completely separate from anyone else's legacy. But you know, Bernie Sanders does instill this excitement with us because he's talking about climate change and student debt and we're very excited for that.

HARLOW: So let me read you part of this. There was an interesting open letter to millennials posted on the "Huffington Post" this week. I'm sure you saw it and it was titled "Bernie Sanders will Break your Heart." Here's part of it. Let's pull it up.

"If he did ever make it to the Oval Office he would break your heart just as Obama did. He'll either cave under Republican pressure and/or shift to the center to compromise." What do you say to the person that posted that?

AHMED: I would disagree. I think Bernie's support actually comes from independents and people who are, you know, Republicans even are just not anywhere on the two-party spectrum, political spectrum. And I think that's the difference. I think Obama really reached out to a lot of democrats and centered - people who are in the center. But I think Bernie just reaches everyone who is just not politically engaged. You know you have a New Hampshire 76 percent of independents who support Bernie. So.

HARLOW: So I want to get your reaction. I know you had a very vocal reaction to what Gloria Steinem said earlier this week about Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders' supporters and why they're supporting Sanders.

But former secretary of state Madeleine Albright is addressing this comment she made at Hillary Clinton's rally last weekend. Let's play that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, FMR. SECRETARY OF STATE: Just remember, there's a special place in hell for women who don't have help each other.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: All right. After that went viral and not in a good way for Albright or for Clinton, she wrote an op-ed yesterday in the "New York Times" and called it her undiplomatic moment. And she said "I've spent much of my career as a diplomat. So one might assume I know better than to tell a large number of women to go to hell." When Clinton was asked about this she pointed to the fact that, "look, Albright has been saying this for 25 years."

What was your reaction to hearing Madeleine Albright say that in support of Hillary Clinton as a woman who is supporting Bernie Sanders?

AHMED: Right. You know, I think Madeleine Albright is a very powerful woman. She's - she's well off. She's wealthy. And I don't think she understands the struggle of young women, especially women like me who are also women of color. And I think for Hillary, I mean, yes, she says that all the time but for Hillary Clinton to bring her on to her campaign and say that to, you know, kind of - is like in a subtle way saying that somehow Sanders' supporters, just aren't -

As women who supports Sanders aren't as tuned with feminism and I think that's the kind of messaging that we need to avoid in a political - like in a national campaign because we're all feminists and even Gloria Steinem agrees at this point that regardless of who you support you're still a feminist. You have a right to choose the candidate that you relate to that, that embodies your views.

[16:20:10]

HARLOW: Moumita, very nice to meet you. Thank you for coming on the program.

AHMED: Thank you for having me.

HARLOW: Thank you so much.

AHMED: Thank you.

HARLOW: All right. Coming up next, double dose of reality as the pontiff kicks off his first full day in Mexico. We will tell you the tough love message the Pope gave to both government and faith leaders during this inaugural visit to Mexico. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: It has been a full day of pomp and circumstance and some stern words from Pope Francis as Mexico welcomes the pontiff to his very first visit in that country. His holiness delivered two speeches, one to government officials. The other to clergy challenging both groups of leaders to fight the drug cartels and provide justice to the people of Mexico.

In just a few hours, later tonight the Pope will celebrate mass at the Basilica of the Virgin of Guadalupe. Let's talk about the bigger message here with Candida Moss. She's a professor of the New Testament and Early Christianity at the University of Notre Dame. Thank you for being with me. I appreciate it.

As you look at this trip, his first to Mexico. Obviously, he had that big Latin American trip. He didn't go to Mexico before. You say this is in distinct contrast to his predecessor, that he is addressing head-on the power of the cartels.

[16:25:05]

CANDIDA MOSS, PROFESSOR NEW TESTAMENT AND EARLY CHRISTIANITY, UNIV. OF NOTRE DAME: That's right. When Benedict XVI went to Mexico only a few years ago, he really didn't talk about violence, the drug cartels, the kidnappings, but Pope Francis has already issued this direct challenge both to secular and religious authorities in Mexico, talking about how this is not how Mexico is supposed to be and that is not what the Holy Mother, the virgin of Guadalupe wants for her people. He is in the past referred, the drug cartels, as merchants of death.

HARLOW: When you look at this trip that he's making, he's going from southern Mexico up to the north and going to the border, very clearly the same route that migrants take, right, to come into the United States. Donald Trump condemned that this week. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think that the Pope is a very political person. I think he doesn't understand the problems our country has. I don't think he understands the danger of the open border that we have with Mexico.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: That was Donald Trump, presidential front-runner for the GOP. What do you think Pope Francis' goal is in making such a deliberate trip to show the migrant journey?

MOSS: I think he's trying to make people more empathetic. He's shining a spotlight on the immigrant experience, showing how dangerous it is, showing the kinds of poverty and hardship they endure. Because where Pope Francis goes the cameras follow. By the time he reaches Juarez we're going to see the kind of poverty that people are experiencing and he's trying to make us, especially in the United States, more empathetic towards immigrants.

HARLOW: This is also a trip that is very focused on evangelization, right? I mean, you still got an overwhelmingly Catholic country, I think 81 percent of Mexican residents are Catholic. But there has been a move to the protestant faith by some and he's trying to stem that.

MOSS: Yes. That's correct. And in Latin America as a whole we're starting to see Catholics falling away. In Mexico only one in 10 cradle Catholics are leaving the church as they grow older. But that's still a lot. And it's increasingly more. So Pope Francis going there is to rally the troops, to get people to become engaged with Catholicism's most charismatic ambassador.

HARLOW: And before I let you go, I just have to ask about this critical meeting that he had - a first, a meeting with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church. This is something we haven't seen between the Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox Church in a thousand years since the great schism.

MOSS; This is true. All the ecumenical efforts have been between patriarchs from Constantinople or Egypt. This is first time he's met with a Russian Orthodox patriarch. But what's bringing them together, common ground is the persecution of Christians in the Middle East and the plight of refugees. That's what's bringing them together. They've referred to one another as brothers, but will we see sort of evangelization or a humanism coming out of this? That seems doubtful.

HARLOW: And a meeting ground, sort of a neutral place for the two of them in Cuba yesterday. Thank you so much, Candida Moss. Appreciate it very much.

MOSS: Thank you.

HARLOW: Up next, my guest, a conservative columnist for the "New York Times" says most of the GOP candidates are, "pathetic." His words. Because they won't attack Donald Trump, he says. Hear what he is predicting for tonight's presidential debate, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:31:37] HARLOW: All right. Michigan Governor Rick Snyder says he will testify before a congressional committee on the Flint water crisis -- the crisis that has led to lead poisoning in at least 100 children in Flint. He is expected to explain how that poisoning happened. He's set to make recommendations on what they can do now to try to stem the crisis.

State officials are investigating whether the toxic water can also be linked to the rate of miscarriages in the city. This comes after news the water was also linked possibly to an outbreak of Legionnaire's disease and accusations that the state tried to cover it up.

Our Sara Ganim has that exclusively story. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA GANIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the summer of 2014, people in Flint started dying in what would become one of the worse outbreaks of Legionnaire's disease in U.S. history.

JIM HENRY, DIRECTOR, GENESEE COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT: We're suspecting the city of Flint water supply.

GANIM: After the city began drawing from the highly corrosive Flint River, brown water started flowing from taps.

HENRY: That was the big red flag.

GANIM: Eventually, toxic lead would be discovered. But that summer, the county health director hadn't found the source of the legionnaire's disease, which by that point was already killing people, so we got in touch with the CDC.

(on camera): When you reached out, what did you expect to happen?

HENRY: We expected that we would have a team of people that would help us identify the source of this bacteria, the source of this illness, to stop it.

GANIM (voice-over): But that didn't happen. The Centers for Disease Control, the federal agency tasked with investigating outbreaks, didn't show up. And the county health director, Jim Henry, says Michigan state officials purposely kept them away.

HENRY: Our whole team was angry. It was -- you could see that it was an intentional, deliberate method to prevent us from doing our job.

GANIM: According to CDC protocol, a state must invite the CDC to investigate an outbreak. And Michigan did not do that.

HENRY: The state stopped the investigation by prohibited us to communicate, they prohibited communication between the Centers of Disease Control and Genesee County Health Department. They prevented that team to come here and help us find the source.

GANIM: Legionella thrives in warm weather and Henry says he was racing against the clock trying to prevent another outbreak from happening the following summer. Still hoping the CDC would come and pinpoint the cause.

HENRY: It was infuriating.

GANIM: Michigan state officials did provide assistance but never found the cause of the outbreak. The state would not agree to an interview, saying only this, we were able to meet the epidemiological case investigation need in the county. CDC was a part of these conversations as they were involved in many aspects of the investigations.

But the CDC tells CNN that it felt a comprehensive investigation was warranted and offered to further assist Michigan. In this case, Michigan felt that they had the skills and resources needed to perform the investigation themselves.

As the weather warmed in 2015 just as Henry had feared, there was a second wave of cases. But to Henry's astonishment, the state had already declared the Legionnaire's outbreak over.

[16:35:04] (on camera): When you read that, what did you think?

HENRY: It must be a mistake. We had two new cases in June, we had multiple cases, and to determine the outbreak over must have been some sort of mistake.

GANIM: That's what you thought at the time?

HENRY: That's what I thought at the time.

GANIM: What do you think now?

HENRY: It was intentional, to stop the investigation. That would implicate the Flint water system in this outbreak.

GANIM (voice-over): By summer's end, four more people would die, including 58-year-old Deborah Kidd. Her son Troy says she got sick after visiting the E.R. for a migraine. She didn't know there were high levels of Legionella in the hospital water supply. His family is now suing the hospital and the state.

TROY KIDD, MOTHER DIED OF LEGIONNAIRES' DISEASE: I think it's a cover-up. I think it stinks. I think they knew there was something more going on than what they wanted to really let on.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: I will say we did talk to the governor of Michigan just about two weeks ago. I asked him about the Legionnaire's outbreak and the possible connection to the water. He said obviously it is something they're very, very concerned about. Still wait for so many answers though for the people of Flint.

Sara Ganim, thank you for that exclusive report.

Coming up next, politics, six candidates will be on stage at the GOP debate tonight. How many though can actually win the race, at least the race for the nomination? Our next guest says only two have a chance. Who are those two? We'll tell you next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:40:06] HARLOW: All right. In this week's "American Opportunity", it may be the centerpiece of Senator Bernie Sanders' campaign, but he is certainly not the only candidate talking about income inequality. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have a 40-year record of going after inequality. And not only economic inequality -- racial inequality, sexist inequality, homophobic inequality.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One in seven people are living in poverty. That's not an A. One in five children are on food stamps. That is not an A.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is wrong today in a rigged economy, that 57 percent of all new income is going to the top 1 percent.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will see across this country millions of people trapped in poverty lifted out of poverty, having the dignity of work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: All right. I also want you to consider this new number out from an Oxfam report. What it shows is just 62 people, 62, hold the same amount of wealth as the entire bottom half of the global with population, over 1.5 billion people.

At the center of the debate is solutions. What policy prescriptions will help alleviate help most of those who are struggling?

This week, I sat down with investing legend and market expert Mohamed El-Arian for his take. His and although he more leans to the politically to the left, he argues as a Democrat, he listens very closely to the Republican proposals and truly believes there is common ground.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: The way that you describe today's economy in your new book is an economy beset by low growth and rising inequality. Talk to me about the inequality component of that and why everyone watching should care.

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, AUTHOR, "THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN": They should care a great deal. This is not a political statement. This is an economic statement.

A little bit of inequality is a good thing. Why? It encourages hard work. If you work hard, you get rewarded.

Too much inequality undermines the economy. Why? Because when all the income goes to the rich, the rich spend less of the incremental volume.

So, next thing you know, you don't have enough demand in the system. Companies see that, they don't invest enough because, after all, there isn't enough demand in the system, and next thing you know you start pulling the economy down.

The second reason why they should worry is it's no longer about just income and wealth inequality, it's about the inequality of opportunities.

HARLOW: Right.

EL-ERIAN: And the minute you talk about inequality of opportunities you're talking about this country's potential.

HARLOW: You also point to excessive long-term and youth unemployment. Mohamed, if you were the sole decision maker, which doesn't exist in this country, but what tools would you implement? What would you do to change things to help more people?

EL-ERIAN: So the first thing to understand is when you have youth unemployment, and this is a huge problem in Europe.

HARLOW: Huge.

EL-ERIAN: They can go from being unemployed to unemployable. Why? Every year the system produces more young people in the labor force. Now, think, if you're an employer and you have the choice of hiring me, out of school for five years but I haven't worked or someone fresh out of school, you're going to go for the person fresh out of school.

I become not just unemployed, I become unemployable. The minute that happens, you're talking about a lost generation. You're talking about social issues, political issues.

HARLOW: A lost generation.

EL-ERIAN: Right.

HARLOW: Dive into that for me.

EL-ERIAN: So, we solved the unemployment rate problem, unemployment rate loss rate but if you look at labor participation, how many people are actually in the labor force, it's still at multi-decade lows. So, what we've done is we discouraged a lot of people from coming into the labor force. So, while our unemployment rate looks good, our real situation is still problematic.

HARLOW: So, what do we need to do? Because some look at some liberal policies, right? And they say, that is Robin Hoodesque, that is a redistribution of wealth and that is not, quote/unquote, "American" or capitalism. What would you do?

EL-ERIAN: Poppy, you know, I'm going to challenge you. If you were to fill this room with economists and you put up a four issues that we need to do. Most of them would agree on them, regardless of whether they come from the left or the right.

They may disagree on which is the most important but they will agree, for example, that we need to invest in proper engines of growth, that we can't rely on finance. That was a mistake. We need infrastructure, we need a better education system, we need to retool our labor force. They'll agree on problem with aggregate demand and inequality.

HARLOW: Is free college realistic?

EL-ERIAN: So, I would say targeted free college. Targeted free college, right, as opposed to free college for everybody. So prove that you need it and we should be able to help because that's a key issue for opportunity.

We also have to think there's different ways to go to college, different routes to go to college.

HARLOW: Sure.

EL-ERIAN: And there's a lot that can be done.

HARLOW: Your prediction five years out, Mohamed, we're sitting here again in 2021, will inequality be worse? Will it be greater or less in this country?

[16:45:01] EL-ERIAN: So, I'm going to sound wishy-washy, but that's only intellectually honest answer. That destiny is in our hands. There's nothing predestined. I call it the T Junction. That's what the British called, the road you're on ends and then you can either turn in a good direction or turn in a bad direction. And where we turn is up to us. We have the tools to make our future better.

HARLOW: This is what your whole book is about.

EL-ERIAN: That's why I wrote the book.

The book is to increase awareness. Be careful. The road we've been on, the notion we can stay in low growth now ever, we can't. The system is fast breaking down. This notion that central banks can refresh financial volatility, just look what's been happening recently.

HARLOW: They used every bazooka they've got.

EL-ERIAN: Correct. So, we better realize that the road that we've been on is ending and we better take our destiny in our hands because we can. This is not an engineering problem. This is a political implementation problem.

HARLOW: A political implementation problem, but yet no one gets held fully accountable for that, for the lack of policy making.

EL-ERIAN: So, my prediction is that about three to four months, the sense of economic insecurity and financial security among the average American will have increased so much that the candidates would have no choice but to come out with a comprehensive economic program and then we're going to be able to judge.

HARLOW: Are you hopeful as we sit here today?

EL-ERIAN: I am. This country has a tradition of getting to the right answer. And we have two turbochargers. So if Capitol Hill were to respond, they will find they have a huge impact. Why? Companies have a ton of cash on their balance sheet. When they

deploy it, they just give it back to shareholders. If that money gets deployed offensively, in production, in plant and equipment, it makes a big difference.

Secondly, look at these technological advances. They're going from being name specific and sector specific to being economy wide. And that's huge.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARLOW: Mohamed El-Erian, thank you very much for that.

Up next, to politics and Jeb Bush -- starting out this race for the White House as the front-runner. People thought he was a shoo-in for the GOP nomination. Now quite a different story. Some would say his chances are slim of even staying in the race much longer.

What does he have to do tonight on the debate stage to really pull it out? We'll talk about it next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:51:06] HARLOW: In just a few hours, the Republican presidential candidates will square off in a debate tonight. A lot is on the line. The GOP field is slimmer after Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie suspended their campaigns. Donald trump is coming off a landslide victory in New Hampshire and the battle for South Carolina is getting more vicious by the minute.

Jeb Bush will campaign alongside his older brother, the former President George W. Bush, in South Carolina starting on Monday. A conservative columnist for the "New York Times" says that the Republican presidential race is, a quote, "mess". And what he calls the trump insurgency that he says cannot be stopped until trump's rivals do something very different.

Conservative "New York Times" columnist Ross Douthat joins me now and he writes that "Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich look equally pathetic with Rubio unable to capitalize on good press and a clear opening. Jeb unable to capitalize on all that money and organization, and Kasich unable to bring out -- to break out of the Huntsman demographic."

Ross joins me now.

A fascinating piece. Thank you for being with me.

ROSS DOUTHAT, NEW YORK TIMES: Sure, thanks for having me.

HARLOW: You argue, they could do something to stop Trump but they won't, they won't attack him. It's not overarchingly --

DOUTHAT: Well, they are.

HARLOW: -- you have seen some of them attacking them. DOUTHAT: You are finally seeing the start of something. In fairness,

the one candidate who has attacked Trump is Ted Cruz who attacked a fair amount in the last week or two in Iowa and ended up beating him.

But what's happened is that neither Rubio nor Jeb Bush had spent large sums of money going after Trump even though Trump is clearly the front-runner in the polls and Jeb has attacked Trump a little more than Rubio has but the focus of Jeb's spending and especially in his super PAC spending has been on attacking Rubio, the theory being that Jeb can't win unless he beats Rubio and Rubio's theory being (AUDIO GAP) can't win unless he put Jeb and now Kasich away.

But what it's meant is that Trump has had up until now a remarkably free ride for someone who, again, has been leading in the polls nationally and in every state.

HARLOW: But I think it's interesting because you also wrote this. You wrote on the morning of March 2nd, the media may start covering him as if he is the front-runner talking about Ted Cruz and talking about the fact that you believe he's really the only Republican when you crunch the numbers, if you will, that has a path to victory.

DOUTHAT: Well, he has the -- out of the sort of, we'll call them non- Trump candidates. Cruz has the clearest path to victory in the sense that he has actually won a state. He has --

HARLOW: All right. I think we lost Ross. If we can get him back we will bring him back for you. Again, you can look at his column this week in "The New York Times" for that.

Ross, thank you so much. Sorry we lost you.

I do want to make sure you tune in to our post-debate coverage that is tonight, right after the GOP debate with Erin Burnett, the best political team on television. That all starts immediately after the debate tonight only right here on CNN.

Quick break. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:58:03] HARLOW: All right. Checking top stories now.

The FBI is now working with the police in Columbus, Ohio, to determine the motive of a man who went on a rampage with a machete in a restaurant. Police are investigating. It is a possible lone wolf terror attack. Four people were injured including one man in critical condition. Police shot and killed the 30-year-old after a car chase.

The gunman who shot an Indianapolis police officer is now in custody. It happened earlier this morning on the south side of the city. The officer was shot in the forearm while responding to reports of a suspicious man walking back and forth between houses. The officer has been treated. He is doing fine. Investigators are still trying to find out the gunman's motive. And Hawaii is launching a preemptive strike against the Zika virus.

State leaders now mobilizing resources expecting mosquitoes carrying the virus to reach the mainland there. The governor signed an emergency proclamation on Friday. The World Health Organization recently announced two possible Zika vaccines under development but they would not be available for at least a year and a half.

And record-low temperatures blasting the Northeast today. Windchills in some areas dropping to 40 to 50 below zero. Wow. Officials here in New York City are warning people to stay inside or bundle up if they head out in what is a brutal, brutal condition right now. Threatening, threatening cold weather.

All right. Five p.m. Eastern, top of the hour. So glad you're with us. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York.

And we focus tonight on South Carolina, the site of the Republican presidential debate tonight. Thank you for being with us.

This is where we begin battleground South Carolina. The state with a near perfect record for picking the Republican Party's eventual nominee. There's a major debate tonight, the stakes could not be higher. Just six Republican candidates on stage with Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the center of what is sure to be a political slug fest.