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Legal View with Ashleigh Banfield

Super Tuesday Coverage; Delegate Math. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired March 01, 2016 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:00:29] ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield. And welcome to LEGAL VIEW.

It is high noon in the East. Super Tuesday from Vermont, all the way to America Samoa. The polls are open on the biggest single day of presidential nominating season. And GOP contender John Kasich is about to speak in one of those states, Virginia, while GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is stumping in Kasich's home state of Ohio. That's the picture on the right. We're going to dip into both of these events when they get underway.

First, though, the big picture. And I do mean big. At stake today for Republicans, 595 delegates. Almost half of the number that they need to win the nomination. Democrats are fighting for 865 delegates. That's more than a third of that party's requisite number to nominate.

CNN colleague Jim Acosta, traveling with Trump. He's in Columbus, Ohio. Wait, Columbus, Ohio? That's not a Super Tuesday state. What are you doing in Columbus?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: You know, Ashleigh, I'm in - I'm in Columbus, Ohio, because Donald Trump is in Columbus, Ohio, and that just tells you exactly what the mindset is of the Donald Trump campaign right now. They are riding high in the polls. He is leading in the delegate count. He is poised to win big here on Super Tuesday. And so he can afford to do things like go to states that aren't voting today, which is the case here in Ohio. They're not voting until later on this month.

But Donald Trump trying to make the point that he's going to go to John Kasich's background, his home turf, and essentially campaign to win a primary that occurs later on this month. He's doing sort of the same thing later on tonight. His election watch party is down in Florida. That's, of course, the home state of Marco Rubio, who he's been tangling with over the last several days.

But, you know, Ashleigh, I think the storyline - one of the interesting storylines that we're going to hear develop here over the next hour or so, when Donald Trump comes out and speaks, is whether or not the GOP frontrunner speaks to this growing chorus of criticism coming from inside the party. You not only have Mitt Romney, the last GOP nominee, on Twitter really savaging Donald Trump and sharply criticizing Donald Trump for his comments, not releasing his tax returns over the last several days, now you have the speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, the vice presidential running mate to Mitt Romney in the last cycle saying just a little while ago up on Capitol Hill that you can't play any games when it comes to reputing the kind of talk that you hear from the KKK and white supremacists like David Duke.

So does Donald Trump come out here and acknowledge all of that? Typically at this point in the campaign, Ashleigh, you know from covering these elections for a long time as well, you know, when a candidate is this far ahead in the polls, this far ahead in the delegate count, that's usually when the party starts to rally around that GOP frontrunner, or even in the case of a Democratic frontrunner perhaps, but that's not happening with Donald Trump. There's a civil war inside the Republican Party right now. The question is, how does Donald Trump handle it and does he start to do that later on today?

Ashleigh.

BANFIELD: Well, you can't always get what you want. That's what's playing in the - over the speaker behind you.

ACOSTA: Yes, that's true.

BANFIELD: And I'm loving listening to it in the background. But, you know, some people think that Donald Trump's getting exactly what is he wants. It remains to be seen about the results today.

Jim Acosta, stand by, if you would. We're going to come back to you and dip in live as soon as Donald Trump takes to that live microphone.

But I've got to get the - the Super Tuesday brain trust in here. Alex Castellanos is a longtime Republican strategist and CNN political commentator. Jeffrey Lord is a Donald Trump supporter and a former White House political director under Ronald Reagan. And John Avlon is a CNN political analyst and editor of "The Daily Beast." So three fantastic minds to weigh in on the dynamic today.

Gentlemen, I'm going to start your engines with this one. Jim Acosta just referred to it. It was what Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House, just said to reporters up on The Hill regarding this whole issue of Donald Trump for disavowing, then not disavowing, then disavowing the KKK and David Duke. It's not getting out of the news headlines. Listen to what he had to say about this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. PAUL RYAN (R), HOUSE SPEAKER: If a person wants to be the nominee of the Republican Party, there can be no evasion and no games. They must reject any group or cause that is built on bigotry. This party does not prey on people's prejudices.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: OK, so I guess I would have to start with you, Jeffrey Lord. That's some tough talk from a very influential person. A person who is revered among Republicans and independents alike. Do you think that this is going to change things for Donald Trump? Will he take heed as to what the speaker has just said? [12:05:14] JEFFREY LORD, FORMER WHITE HOUSE POLITICAL DIRECTOR, First

of all - first of all, Ashleigh, Donald Trump has renounced David Duke at least four times by my count. One after that Jake Tapper interview, at least three times before that in forceful terms.

Let me just speak directly to Speaker Ryan. I have a column in "The American Spectator" today about Mitt Romney playing the race card. In 2012, when a group of Republicans wanted to run a commercial against Jeremiah Wright, who was the black equivalent of David Duke, who was both racist and anti-sematic, Mitt Romney personally intervened and refused to do it. Paul Ryan was part of that ticket and they refused. Both Paul Ryan and I worked for Jack Kemp. Jack Kemp would roll over in his grave if he understood that Paul Ryan refused to take on the bigotry of an anti-sematic racist, which is exactly what they did in 2012. So to see these people lecturing Donald Trump, who has many times over gone after David Duke and disassociated himself from David Duke, and I might add, Donald Trump's daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren are Jewish. The implication that he would be, you know, consorting with an anti-sematic like David Duke is bizarre.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Jeffrey -

BANFIELD: Yes, I think that's why it was so surprising. I think that's why Jake Tapper and everybody watching just thought, wait a minute, you just said I don't know David Duke. I don't know about this white supremacist. You can't blame that on an earpiece. But the - I think the bigger question is, guys -

LORD: NO.

BANFIELD: I think the bigger question is, the polls are showing right now that Donald Trump is poised to sweep right across these Super Tuesday states. Maybe not Texas, but that remains to be seen. And I think a lot of people want to know if this changes the dynamic for him at all and if he needs to listen to any whiff of the sounds coming from heretofore very, very important people, Alex Castellanos.

ALEX CASTELLANOS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I don't think it changes the dynamic for this, these primaries today. Donald Trump's support, his core is going to stick with him. What it does do is it limits Trump's ability to grow beyond his base and unify the party after this, and that's important. You know, these Trump rallies have 10,000 people burning bright, intense, passionate. They're going to be there hell or high water.

But the hottest campaigns in American political history, recent memory, were Barry Goldwater and George McGovern. And they capped - that heat captured their party's nomination, but look what happened in the general election in both cases.

BANFIELD: Right.

CASTELLANOS: Trump has to make a decision here, does he grow? Does he explain how he's going to make America great again? He can either be Barry Goldwater or McGovern or he can evolve into something that unifies the party, like a Ronald Reagan. That's the next challenge for Donald Trump.

BANFIELD: OK.

LORD: Yes.

BANFIELD: So look at the challenges head to head, guys, and, John Avlon, specifically to you I want you to focus on these numbers. I know you've seen them, but popping them up and looking at these head to head number, it really is pretty astounding given the momentum that Donald Trump has had up until now. When you put him up against Hillary Clinton, when you put Marco Rubio up against Hillary Clinton and when you put Cruz up against Hillary Clinton, it's Trump who comes out the loser. I mean by a margin here of 52 to 44. If we could put those numbers up on the screen. They're extremely telling. The choice for president among registered voters, Hillary Clinton, 52 percent, and Donald Trump, 44 percent. That is a loss, and it is not a small loss. And I can only imagine that the guys who are on the second and third tier of that, the Rubios and the Cruz folks, are going to be screaming these numbers from the top of their lungs all throughout today and throughout the rest of the race. But does this change anything for Donald Trump, John Avalon, seeing these general election possibilities?

AVLON: Why in the world would we think it would change anything? He's been successfully in the comparably small cord (ph) of Republican primaries and he's trying to win the nomination. But these numbers are not surprising, Ashleigh. You know, Rubio's always done best against Hillary Clinton. Cruz is one point off. And Donald Trump loses. The electoral implication would be much bigger.

But that's because, you know, Alex just said that, you know, maybe he hopes that Donald Trump pivots. But we know what Donald Trump stands for. We know what Donald Trump believes. He is a bridge -- he is a wall builder, not a bridge builder. That is the essence of his campaign. And his campaign is all about playing to an incredibly narrow base that does not translate to the changing demographics of this country.

And when you hear Jeffrey Lord desperately -

CASTELLANOS: But, Ashleigh -

AVLON: Try to deflect away from the comments on the KKK and others, that is a dog whistle game that goes way back. And while Jeffrey can point out that it wasn't always under the Republican banner -

LORD: (INAUDIBLE) -

AVLON: It was always under the conservative populist banner. And you need to own that cancer at the heart of the conservative movement right now because that is - we are reaping - we are reaping what you have sewn for decades, Jeffrey.

[12:10:04] LORD: (INAUDIBLE) KKK - that - that - the Ku Klux Klan is a leftist hate group, John. It has nothing to do -

AVLON: There you go again, buddy. It's been a conservative populism -

LORD: And, buddy, that's true. (INAUDIBLE) -

AVLON: At the heart of that kind of bigotry and that is what's emerging in this -

LORD: (INAUDIBLE) -

CASTELLANOS: Ashleigh -

AVLON: In the demographic turnout today.

CASTELLANOS: The -

LORD: Read your history.

BANFIELD: Alex - Alex you want to just weigh in, last word?

CASTELLANOS: The one thing - I would say well just that the one thing we know about Donald Trump is, what, he's a salesman, he's a deal maker. If he wins the nomination, what's he going to do, do the last deal again? No, he's going to do the next deal. You can hear him now saying, how are we going to stop Hillary Clinton? If we don't do that, we've accomplish nothing. He does still have a chance to unify this party, but the clock is ticking. He needs to start working on that now.

AVLON: Got to be a pony in there somewhere, Alex.

BANFIELD: And I think a lot - I also think a lot of people are saying he needs to work on his machine. It was something that he struggled through in Iowa, and he lost Iowa. He really didn't even know what a ground game meant in many of the interviews. And there is a bigger issue when it comes to ground gaming and the political machine in a general election. There's a lot of criticism and he does not know what he's doing, he does not have the right professionals in place and that people don't want to join that campaign because it could, you know, ultimately end up black listing them if he doesn't - if he doesn't prevail.

Guys, stand by because that live picture's still up with Donald Trump and we want to see if anything is changing on Super Tuesday, if his message in Ohio, of all places, is any different than it has been all the way along. He's out there at the airport. At some point, that big Trump plane is going to land and that big Trump candidate is going to come out and speak.

Coming up next, with so many delegates up for grabs today, big wins by Trump and Clinton would seal the deal, you would think, right? But don't count on it because there's something called delegate math that muddies up those waters a whole lot. So quick lesson coming up in the delegate allotment and how other guys can still survive up next to these behemoths.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [12:15:55] BANFIELD: Got some live pictures for you right now. We like to call these ballot cams. On the left, Ashburn, Virginia. Hello, Ashburn. Not so busy yet, but wait, the day is young. And on the right, Houston. Houston, you do not have a problem, but you do have a lot of delegates. Holy cow, you're the big kahuna for both parties today. So we're watching you closely. And all the other states too.

About a dozen states up for all of the folks who are running to be the nominee of their party. In the words of the frontrunner, the stakes are huge. Millions of people across the country right now at the polls, hundreds of delegates up for grabs, both Democrats and Republicans. And while no one is expected to clinch the nominations today, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump sure are projected to have massive, massive victories.

I want to bring in someone who's very good with numbers, excellent at math, and she can explain the math of implications from today's vote. In fact, you know what, I just want to get you to wait right now for a second, Christine Romans -

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Sure.

BANFIELD: Because Ted Cruz just took to the mike live in Houston. And he just finished. Oh, rats. That's what happens with live TV. The camera starts going wobbly. The press moves in and pushes people out of the way. They make Christine Romans wait. But, you know, wait no more.

So, tell me, from the CNN Money perspective, what the significance is with the ballot math, the delegate math.

ROMANS: It's a math problem. A big math problem for some of these candidates because the math favors Donald Trump. So let me walk through this here and let's begin with the delegates on the board right now and start with the GOP, Ashleigh.

One hundred and twenty-five delegates have been award heading in today, 125. And look at this, because of his three big wins, 82 are in the Trump pocket, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Super Tuesday now. You've got a dozen states up for grabs here. Arguably the most important day of the election season to date. Why? Because about half of the 1,237 Republican delegates needed to secure the nomination, half of them are at stake. And polls show Donald Trump is dominating. Dominating. CNN's most recent national poll, Ash, Trump at 49 percent. That's up eight points in just a month.

Now the biggest prize - you just showed that live picture from Houston where Ted Cruz is - the biggest prize is Texas. And here's why. It's Senator Ted Cruz's home. It has 155 delegates at stake. He has been campaigning there hard. And those delegates will be award proportionately. He needs a big win here because even just a narrow win for Cruz still means Trump runs up the delegate numbers. And look at what the numbers look like right now. Cruz is ahead, but Trump, right there, at 26 percent. Let me show you the second biggest haul for the night. That will be

Georgia with 76. Seventy-six delegates. The latest polls still favor Trump. You see this again and again. But Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, they're tied for second, Ashleigh. Marco Rubio needs his first win. He needs it. Where? I don't know, maybe Virginia. His folks would like to see that. Maybe Arkansas, though Ted Cruz is hoping Arkansas is good for him. Maybe Minnesota with 38 delegates there. you've got to get on the board if you are Marco Rubio.

OK, so let me show you quickly who's at stake for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton has -

BANFIELD: Before do you that - before you do that, Christine.

ROMANS: Sure.

BANFIELD: I just want to make sure people are aware of what they're seeing on the right-hand side. You've got Christine on the left and Ted Cruz on the right in Houston. He's heading to his - his polling place because he gets to vote, of course, in Texas. So that - he brought his family and I just wanted people to realize, the stakes are so high as you put this map out there. There's that threshold there in Texas, too.

ROMANS: Yes.

BANFIELD: If you don't get 20 percent of anything, you don't get anything.

ROMANS: Yes.

BANFIELD: So, go ahead. Sorry for the interruption.

ROMANS: And he would like - he would like to have - and you're right, he would like to have a big spread between Donald Trump and him. You know, if it's a tight spread, I mean Donald Trump can still sort of run up the math. And, remember, he's already got 82 delegates there.

You know, let me look at - quickly at Hillary Clinton. She's got six times the delegates as Bernie Sanders right now, if you include all of these super delegates. Now, you know, Team Clinton hope that they can sweep the south. I mean all of these states that were so good to her in the past and all these states so close to South Carolina, she wants to continue that.

[12:19:58] Sanders hopeful for Oklahoma and actually showing a bit of an edge there in some of the polls, leading Clinton by 5 percent in this one. And they're also looking on Team Sanders, looking north to Minnesota, 77 there. Massachusetts, 91 delegates there. You know, you've got Hillary Clinton opening up an 8 point lead in Massachusetts, but it is Bernie Sanders' backyard. And then there's always, of course, Vermont, 16 delegates there. But the big kahuna, as you say, the big kahuna is definitely, definitely Texas today.

BANFIELD: Texas, Texas. Everything's big in Texas.

ROMANS: It sure is.

BANFIELD: All right, Christine Romans, thank you so much.

ROMANS: You're welcome.

BANFIELD: I have a feeling we'll be doing math again together tomorrow as well. Christine Romans for us live.

In the meantime, Senator Bernie Sanders is really hoping today is going to be a turning point for his campaign. Earlier, he did the same thing as Ted Cruz just did, he cast his ballot ahead of a rally in his home state of Vermont. There he is in Burlington earlier, smiling away. I love the people who are right ahead of him, might not even know it's the candidate behind them.

All of this coming as Sanders is looking to bounce back from - I think you can only call it a real crushing defense in South Carolina. And joining me now to discuss this is Charles Chamberlin. He is a supporter of Senator Sanders and just happens to be the executive director of Democracy for America as well.

Charles, thank you so much for being with me today.

Christine Romans just flashed those numbers up in Massachusetts. So close to Vermont. Kind of supposed to be Bernie Sanders' territory, but Clinton's got him 50 to 42. I think the question I have for you, with the polls looking somewhat bleak for your candidate going into Super Tuesday, what does he have to win today and what is he actually going to win today?

CHARLES CHAMBERLAIN, BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTER: Yes, well, you know, I think that what we're looking at is a very tight race. The bottom line is the super delegates don't matter. The super delegates historically, they've never overturned the vote of rank and file Democrats around the entire country. And so what this is really is a fight for pledge delegates. And we're going to pick up a bunch of delegates today. We're going to win a few states. I think that's definitely a good thing. But we've got to remember, you know, Barack Obama lost a lot of states to Hillary Clinton, including delegate rich California, and he still won the nomination. So even if today ends up being tough for Bernie, we've got time. There's 35 more states that are voting over the course of the next several months. There's a lot of races ahead of us and there are a lot of delegates to pick up for anyone to win this nomination.

BANFIELD: I hear you loud and clear. But I also recall Barack Obama had a very tight hold on the African-American vote, on the minority vote. And I just want to remind you, and I know this is going to sting, but the South Carolina exit polls had black voters choosing Hillary Clinton 84 percent over 16 percent for your candidate. That's uncomfortable. A lot of people thought he'd do much, much better among African-Americans in South Carolina and there are a lot of southern states coming up today.

CHAMBERLAIN: Right. Well there's definitely a lot of work that Sanders has left to do when it comes to, you know, attracting the African- American vote and clearly South Carolina makes that - makes that clear. But, you know, from the CNN poll that was released today, the bottom line is, when we see that Bernie Sanders beats Donald Trump by more than Hillary Clinton, it's a ten point spread between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. And at the bottom line is, we're trying to figure out who should be the Democratic nominee that's going to go on and beat the Republican nominee and win the White House. And the answer is, when you look at poll after poll, it's Bernie Sanders. He's the strongest candidate. He beats Trump. He beats Rubio. He beats Cruz.

Hillary, in your poll that you just released today, didn't beat Cruz, doesn't beat Trump -

BANFIELD: You're right.

CHAMBERLAIN: I mean doesn't beat Rubio and beats Trump by less than Bernie.

BANFIELD: Yes.

CHAMBERLAIN: So I think the bottom line is, as we see this contest continue to go forward with 35 states to vote after today, and we're going to win a couple of states today, but after today, as we continue to move forward, we're going to keep winning states and we still have a path to victory to win this nomination.

BANFIELD: You know what, I'm so glad you read those numbers. They popped up magically right as you were saying that. But that was really prescient (ph) of you Charles Chamberlain. You have a career in broadcasting, my friend. Thank you so much for today. Thanks, Charles.

CHAMBERLAIN: Yes, you bet. You bet. Thank you.

BANFIELD: All right, coming up, after today, oh, today, such a big day, Democratic contest is going to move to the Midwest. One of my favorite places. Don't miss the next debate this Sunday, 8:00 p.m. Flint, Michigan, only here on CNN.

Coming up next, everything is bigger in Texas. I've said it before. I'll say it again. And the delegate count is no different, which is why hometown Senator Ted Cruz is counting on a big win here to get his campaign back on track. A live look for you right there. Allen, Texas. Voters in the lone star state, will they come through for Senator Cruz? Take a look at him there. I think I know what he and Heidi are doing, but those two little girls are only going to have to watch. His little girls just too young to be able to vote, but they are adorable.

We're also expecting Donald Trump to speak soon in Columbus, Ohio. But look who is at the mike first, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who just came out days ago after dropping out of the presidential race, he is endorsing Donald Trump and now he is introducing him in the very, very, shall I say it again, very important state of Ohio. We're going to take you there live in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [12:29:32] BANFIELD: Want to take you live back to Texas. This is the peekaboo view. That's the official word for what it looks like when you have a camera lens up to a window and on the other side of the window is Texas Senator Ted Cruz milling about other voters who are casting their votes in the Texas primary today. One hundred and fifty- five delegates at stake in that whopper of a state. So live shots from Houston as we pretty much can be guaranteed Ted Cruz casting a ballot for himself. And you can guarantee Donald Trump will do the same when it comes time to vote in New York.

Let's listen to him, though, live in Columbus, Ohio, where they vote in two weeks.

[12:30:08] DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So this all began on June 16th, standing in New York City at