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Super Saturday: Voters Decide in Five Key States; Fears That Tainted Water Caused Miscarriages; One Hundred Fifty Five Delegates At Stake Today For Republicans; Trump Drops Out Of Major Conservative Conference; Senator Rand Paul On 2016 Race; Trump, Cruz To Appear At Same Kansas Caucus Site. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired March 05, 2016 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:00:29] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everyone. Top of the hour, 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
It is down to the wire in five states today for the Republicans and the Democrats as voters make their final choice on this so-called Super Saturday. The polls are open in Louisiana and four other states that are caucusing today. All of this as Flint, Michigan, prepares for the spotlight tomorrow night for a critical debate between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, while the city deals with a horrific water crisis.
ASHLEIGH BANFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, there, everyone. I'm Ashleigh Banfield live at the University of Michigan in Flint.
HARLOW: And it is beautiful, white and snowy behind you, Ash.
I'm Poppy Harlow live in New York.
We will be carrying you through the next four hours together, and it is Super Saturday, capping off one of the busiest weeks in the race for the White House. The candidate pool is leaner, the attacks, they are fiercer, and the stakes are higher than ever.
Five states holding contests today. On the Republican side, 155 delegates up for grabs in Kentucky, Maine, Louisiana and Kansas. Democrats also voting today in Louisiana and Kansas, caucusing in Nebraska. There are 109 delegates at stake for Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton.
Voters headed to the polls already in Kansas. The caucusing has just begun.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz expected to speak live in Wichita at any moment. We'll bring that to you when we have it.
At that very same location in Kansas, Cruz's biggest competitor right now, Donald Trump, also slated to speak. This comes as Trump abruptly dropped out of his speech that he'd agreed to at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference. It was planned for this morning. Instead, he decided to go speak in Kansas. For decades, the CPAC event has been considered a must-stop for
Republican presidential candidates, but Trump instead said, "No, thanks." He held a rally in Kansas. Still, though, not explaining his absence.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I wanted to be in Kansas. I wanted to be here so badly, so I was headed to another direction. I told the pilot, we're going to Kansas. Just get here.
Now, we don't have much time this morning because in a few minutes we've got to go over and caucus. Who's got to right to caucus? Who's got the right to vote? Raise your hand. Good, good.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: CNN's Rosa Flores is live in Wichita for us this morning.
Rosa, good morning to you.
It's getting more and more packed behind you. You know, it's interesting when you think about this week. Trump was clearly a lot more focused on Rubio on the debate stage this week, but he really went after Cruz already this morning and now they're about to come potentially face-to-face.
ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Poppy, the main event right now is right here. Donald Trump just wrapped up his remarks to my right. Ted Cruz just arrived on the scene. He is to my left, and people here are riled up for Super Saturday. Lots at stake.
I want to show you around, first of all. You can see the stage where both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will be speaking in a few moments. Also, supporters of Kasich and Rubio will also be speaking.
But I want you to take a look at all of these people here. There are a lot of signs for Ted Cruz, which at first you might think, wait a minute, is Ted Cruz maybe perhaps taking Kansas? I don't know, because a lot of the Trump supporters are right next door. So, they could be spilling over.
Now, I want to show you a little slice of what we're seeing here as well. If we talk to -- oh, I'm having -- I'm getting a little stuck here, but I want to show you around, if we can get unstuck.
I talked to the people here just moments ago, guys, so we were going to play a little game. If you are here for Donald Trump, raise your hand! Three people for Donald Trump.
For Ted Cruz, raise your hand! There you go, there you go. There are some younger Ted Cruz supporters over here.
What about Kasich? Kasich? Ah, there we go.
And what about Marco Rubio? So, there you have it. But, Poppy, here is the big deal about Super Saturday here. Out of
the 155 delegates, 40 are from Kansas. That's why there is no mistake as to why both Trump and Cruz are here speaking to the people of Kansas.
Now, I've talked to a lot of the supporters because I just came over from the Trump event moments ago, and they tell me that they are fired up because of some of the controversial things that you were mentioning regarding Trump and also the comments from Mitt Romney. A lot of his supporters said, Rosa, that made us very angry, and that is why we are here today.
[11:05:04] So, again, we're going to hear Donald Trump speak here in a few moments. He's the first scheduled speaker. After that, a few more speakers and then we will also hear from Ted Cruz -- Poppy.
HARLOW: All about Kansas for them today.
Rosa, thank you so much. We appreciate it.
And in just about 30 minutes, we'll also see Marco Rubio take the stage at CPAC, that big conference this morning. It's the annual gathering of who's who in the conservative world.
Meantime, Donald Trump's decision to back out of speaking there getting some mixed reaction from conservative voters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Personally, I'm not a Donald Trump fan, but you know, if you want to represent the Republican Party and be a part of the conservative movement, then CPAC is a really important place to be.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm supportive of Donald Trump, whatever he decides to do as a sovereign individual. And he would probably be heckled and harassed here and booed, and why put yourself through a lot of stress? The man's -- I mean, he's thrown a lot of stuff out there that needs plowed up and rearranged.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Our Manu Raju is at CPAC. It's at National Harbor, Maryland. We're awaiting Rubio's remarks.
Good morning to you, Manu. What's everybody talking about there?
MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, Donald Trump, even though he's not here. He's still the main subject of conversation. Actually, that last attendee probably had the best analysis. If Donald Trump came here, he probably would have been heckled.
When Ted Cruz spoke here yesterday, he did attack Donald Trump repeatedly and got a very enthusiastic applause, if that tells you anything, poppy. But not everyone was attacking Donald Trump. Carson announced he
would suspend his campaign yesterday, he did not mention Donald Trump, but in a post-news conference -- news conference after his speech, I asked him directly, what do you think of the attacks that Mitt Romney has waged against Donald Trump? And he came to Donald Trump's defense.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. BEN CARSON (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People who think that, you know, Donald Trump will be the worst thing that ever happened need to also understand that if he is the person selected by the people, you make a really big mistake by trying to thwart the will of the people. And also recognize that Mr. Trump really does want to be successful. I mean, that's a huge part of him, and he would feel terrible if he had a presidency that was not successful. And he's smart enough to know that he cannot have a successful presidency with some of the things that he's talking about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: And he also said that the attacks that Mitt Romney's waging could actually help Hillary Clinton in November, if Trump were to face Hillary Clinton. Carson would not say who he would endorse when we asked him repeatedly, but those kind of things could matter, particularly in these very close contests, especially not just today, Poppy, but on March 15th, a very big day in the race when Florida votes. Ben Carson, of course, a resident of Florida, so we'll see what he has to say over the next couple weeks.
HARLOW: There is also the working theory, Manu, that the sort of intense pushback against the establishment right now might mean that Mitt Romney's comments against Trump might actually help Trump from all those people who see Romney as, like, quintessentially a part of the establishment.
But before I let you go, let me ask you this. Rubio takes the stage in just a few minutes. How hard do you expect him to go after Trump? Because that strategy of shifting to really attacking Trump before Super Tuesday didn't net out in him winning more states. He won one state, Rubio, Minnesota, on Super Tuesday, that's it.
RAJU: That's right, but I still think you're going to see him go after him pretty hard. Rubio's advisers believe now is the time that they have to be sort of the leader of that Never Trump movement. They think that they can go after him hard and probably stop him in Florida. That's really the only strategy right now for Marco Rubio, stop Donald Trump, and doing that also gets a lot of earned media coverage.
We're going to be following it very closely when he attacks Trump. I'm sure we'll carry those remarks. That's what Rubio is calculating as well -- Poppy.
HARLOW: Yes. You'll see him live right here. Manu Raju, thank you very much. Let's go straight back to Flint, Michigan, and my friend, Ashleigh
Banfield, is there -- Ash.
BANFIELD: Hey, Poppy, thank you. And happy Super Saturday to you. I think all of these days have been pretty super, I have to say, because this election season is like no other.
And while people are voting on this Super Saturday in five different states, there are several candidates who are already looking somewhere else. They're looking ahead down the map to another big Tuesday. That's this Tuesday, because there's going to be a primary right here in Michigan, and there's a lot at stake -- 59 delegates up for grabs for the Republican candidates and 130 for the Democrats.
And right now, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are probably pretty busy sharpening their messages ahead of tomorrow night's Democratic debate here in Flint, Michigan, and it's on CNN.
[11:10:03] We're thrilled to be here, actually at the University of Michigan at Flint. You can see the lovely Flint River right behind me.
Don't be fooled. It may look pretty, but it has been the source of so much suffering.
Joining me now with a look ahead to what's about to happen here is Nolan Finley, who's a columnist for "The Detroit News."
Nolan, before we begin to speak about the Democrats and what's going to happen here tomorrow night, I just want to talk to you about a column that you wrote right ahead of Thursday night's FOX debate.
NOLAN FINLEY, EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR, THE DETROIT NEWS: Right.
BANFIELD: This is before we heard the cater-walling from the audience, before we heard the comparisons to manhood size, et cetera. You wrote that you expected it to be like a WWE match. And it was spot on.
FINLEY: Yes. I mean, and it played out just exactly like that, or worse. I don't think I've ever seen anything close to that. You know, I have covered a lot of these debates. I've moderated a lot of state debates. I have never seen such a raucous, rude, uncivil display. And you're watching it, and you almost -- you felt badly for both the participants and for the viewers.
BANFIELD: Except for the fact that TV people and pundits and guests come on television the day after these things happen, and they wring their hands and they flip out, and the Trump voters say, get over it.
FINLEY: Right.
BANFIELD: This is what it is. This is who we are. We're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore.
FINLEY: And that's what they pay to see, you know. I think that's what they expect out of their candidate. And the more he's attacked on stage, the better they like it. The feistier he gets, the better they like it. The more outrageous he gets, the more his numbers tick up.
BANFIELD: Well, you have been 40 years with "The Detroit News." And can I just congratulate you on being so consistent with your career?
FINLEY: It's a wonder I can even sit on this chair.
(LAUGHTER)
BANFIELD: I'm so impressed. I don't know if you consider yourself part of the establishment or not, but your paper and the "Detroit Free Press" and the lieutenant governor of the state of Michigan here have all endorsed one John Kasich.
FINLEY: Right.
BANFIELD: You wrote this great line. I just want to read it really quickly. "Governor Kasich tries to command the high road, where unfortunately for him and us, the cameras rarely reach."
FINLEY: Right.
BANFIELD: Why? Why do you think the cameras rarely reach his high road?
FINLEY: Because this has become a reality show and it's become about entertainment. When you've got two, three folks up there talking about their private parts and, you know, screaming at each other and, you know, calling each other names and assigning each other nicknames, it's hard for a guy who just shows up to talk about policy and vision and what he wants to do to get heard, and it's hard to be the only grown-up in the room when a bunch of kids are fighting.
BANFIELD: Let's talk about the river behind us. This beautiful backdrop and the beautiful, snowy --
FINLEY: Spring in Michigan.
BANFIELD: I grew up in Winnipeg. This is nothing.
But listen, the bucolic scene behind us belies the horrors that have fallen on this community.
FINLEY: That's right.
BANFIELD: The Democrats are coming tomorrow night to debate the issues. Some people say, look, I'm glad that this election season has highlighted what is truly a desperate situation here, but others have said this is just grandstanding. How do the people of Michigan feel about all of the candidates, Democrats, Republicans alike, what they say, what they do, how they visit, how they campaign here?
FINLEY: Well, you know, there's been a lot of misinformation about this situation on the campaign trail. Obviously, attention, you know, may help the city get the assistance it needs, but it also may work against solving the problem, because you have a whole lot of people distorting the crisis and distorting what's going on now.
And you know, people don't have faith in their government and they're going to need a little bit of trust in government to get through this thing.
BANFIELD: They sure don't have faith in their taps, either.
FINLEY: No, they don't.
BANFIELD: The people I've spoken to are terrified. They've been told it's OK, but they've been told that before.
Nolan Finley, good to see you. Thank you. And by the way, thank you for the consistency in the work that you do.
FINLEY: Thank you.
BANFIELD: It's great to read your work.
FINLEY: Appreciate it. Joy.
BANFIELD: And please, do not miss the Democratic debate tomorrow night from Flint, Michigan, live 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, right here on CNN. It just keeps getting better and better.
The lines are out the door at one caucus site in Kentucky, and so, we've took our cameras there live. We're going to get you to Bowling Green, coming up.
And also, Marco Rubio's about to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference. It's so exciting there, except for that it's missing one Donald Trump.
So, does that mean Marco Rubio can go on the attack even more? Will he?
We're going bring that to you live just as soon as he starts. Stay with us.
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[11:17:58] HARLOW: For Donald Trump, the magic number is 901. That is how many delegates he needs to clinch the GOP presidential nomination. So far, he's locked in 336. In Kentucky today, where you've got a handful of delegates up for grabs, Republicans are caucusing, 46 delegates, to be exact there on the GOP side, will be determined today.
The lines are out the door in some places. We have it all covered.
Our Kyung Lah is in Louisville. Brian Todd is in Bowling Green.
Brian, let me begin with you. The caucus sites opened not long ago, lines out the door? BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, Poppy. Very energetic
crowd here.
You know, every caucus, every primary we have covered in this political season has been different. It's brought a different kind of energy, a different kind of dynamic. The energy here, the dynamic here is really fueled by unknown.
Caucus officials here were not sure how it was going to go because this is the first time Kentucky has ever held a GOP caucus. They were worried about turnout.
Well, here's how turnout's going. Our photojournalist, William Walker, and I are going to walk outside. This is much better than expected. One of the caucus officials, David Graham, just told me he thinks this is tremendous. Look at this line, goes all the way out the door, over to the street and then down the street. People are still coming in. We talked to a lot of caucus-goers here who are very excited about this.
Now, they're a little anxious because they're not sure how it's going to go. We're going to show you how it works, how these people are going to experience it, as we walk back inside.
This is where they come and check in. This is the nicely conference center here in Bowling Green, part of Western Kentucky University. We're going to come back here, see if we can get back in this door here. Come through here, William.
This is where people come in. The first stop is this lobby area, where they can meet representatives from the campaigns. Marco Rubio's got a stand over there, Ted Cruz has got one over here. This is an exit polling station.
Once they do that -- now, they don't have to come and talk to representatives. They can just come in and vote. A lot of them are coming straight through.
[11:20:00] William and I are going to kind of snake our way over here and show you where they're checking in. Sorry, ma'am, excuse us, one second.
This is the check-in area right here. This is how busy it is. It's really energetic in the early going. The polls open here just about 20 minutes ago.
People check in here according to alphabetical order, then they go back into that area there where we're not allowed to film because they don't want us actually filming people casting their ballots. The ballots are counted in an area back there.
Here's what's interesting about this. This is the first time, as we said, that Kentucky has ever done a caucus. The reason for that is Rand Paul. When Rand Paul was running for president, he's not allowed to be on two ballots at the same time, so they moved this up to be on March 5th. He is going to run for Senate in May. We know he's dropped out of the presidential race, but by the time he did it, it was too late. They were still going to hold it on March 5th.
He actually funded this. He paid for this out of campaign funds to move it up to this date. So, what's good about that, according to a Rand Paul campaign official I just talked to, and according to the people here, is that it makes Kentucky relevant.
The nomination's not locked up yet. Trump's way ahead, but this could be a chance for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to stem his momentum. That's why it's exciting here in Kentucky, Poppy.
HARLOW: Brian Todd, I have to say, you are the master navigator through those crowds, through the lines, inside, outside. Every single time we have a primary or caucus -- thank you so much. Keep us posted on what happens there.
Kyung Lah is also with us.
Kyung, I'm interested in what you're seeing and also what people are telling you in terms of -- do they see this as an opportunity for Trump and Cruz to really widen the gap, considering their strength with evangelicals, with hard-core conservatives, widen the gap between them and Rubio and Kasich?
KYUNG LAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we actually did an informal poll, Poppy. We have to emphasize that it's informal. My producer, Alberto Moy (ph), and I actually just stood outside the door for the first hour and just asked people, who are you voting for? And based on what we heard from the people who stopped and talked to us, it is evenly split, Trump and Cruz with Rubio right behind.
So, this certainly does appear to be pretty evenly divided in this room. Now, there are about 6,000 people expected here. Turnout has been very, very high, much higher than in 2012.
What's happening here in this room is people are checking in via alphabetical order. They're dropping their driver's licenses. They're making sure that their registration's okay.
Then I want to walk you over this way. This is the line after they fill out their ballot, which is just on the other side of the room. It's so packed in here, I can't weave my way through here. Then they take their ballot that's all filled in, wait in line, and then see right behind this gentleman, that cardboard box? They're dropping off their ballots and then dropping them in that box.
What happens to these boxes then is that they go inside this room. Now, the door's closed because they're still getting sorted. But they anticipate that they're going to start counting in this room very, very shortly, Poppy.
Again, they're expecting approximately 6,000 people to come through here. And from everyone we've spoken to, Poppy, it appears to be very, very close, at least the first hour of people we spoke with -- Poppy.
HARLOW: Wow, it's amazing to see the turnout thus far in this primary season.
Kyung, thank you very much. We'll get back to you soon live in Louisville for us.
And next, we're going to take you back to Flint, Michigan, the site of that water crisis that has not only gripped the people of Flint, it has gripped the nation, frankly. It is where tomorrow night's CNN Democratic presidential debate is being held. And ahead, a story you have to see to believe, a mother's fear that lead-poisoned water in Flint may be to blame for her two miscarriages. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
[11:27:32] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My name's Jake Huber, and I'd like to ask Bernie Sanders, if he's elected, what practical solutions he has for the city of Flint and the water crisis and what steps he would take to ensure this doesn't happen to any other city.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BANFIELD: So, Jake is just one of a number of people I met on the sidewalks in Flint, Michigan, with remarkably astute questions for the candidates. Throughout the rest of the day, you're going to be hearing from these people specific questions, if they had a chance to grab the shoulders of that candidate, any candidate, any party. They ask them. You'll hear those questions, too.
We're counting down to our Democratic debate here. It's going to be held right here in Flint, Michigan, tomorrow night. Flint has become a major issue in the political race after this city used a tainted water source right behind me and exposed all who drank it to lead.
There's a lot of steps in between, but effectively, it is a disaster. And according to the "Detroit Free Press," the ripple effect of the water poisoning could cost this nation, because there may be other cities within the nation with the same kinds of problems, an estimated $300 billion in infrastructure upgrades to the lead pipes across the country. You heard it right. We double, triple, quadruple-checked that, $300 billion.
Just yesterday, this city began digging up old pipes in neighborhoods with people most at risk -- those people, children under the age of 6, senior citizens, women who are pregnant. Outraged citizens here say this may just be too late. The state is investigating whether that tainted water has caused an increase in the rate of miscarriages.
CNN's Sara Sidner has been investigating this.
I don't even know how you got through this story and managed to keep your wits about you, because the things that you found truly would just --
SARA SIDNER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Anybody --
BANFIELD: -- insert any phrase here, honestly.
SIDNER: Yes.
BANFIELD: It's just amazing. Amazing.
SIDNER: We were talking to people. And when you start going into neighborhoods, people will open their doors because they want this issue out there in the national media, and they want the candidates to talk about it. But when you talk to individuals who feel they have been directly affected, it touches you in a way that you just can't explain.
This mother was expecting and excited, because at 40 years old, she was pregnant with twins. She already has two children. She was pregnant with twins and she was preparing. She had all the stuff. She was ready. And then something terrible happened when she arrived home.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
[11:30:00] UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK, well, I'll help you out. Just get that on -- yes, put that one on and I'll help you with that one.
SIDNER (voice-over): Nakiya Wakes moved to Flint with her family in 2014, just as the city changed to a different water supply. Wakes eventually became pregnant with twins and was using the tap water like everyone else.
NAKIYA WAKES, FLINT RESIDENT: I noticed that every time that I took a shower or took a bath, I would have breakouts.
SIDNER: Then at five weeks pregnant, she miscarried one of the twin babies, but the other survived.
WAKES: I was like, you know, this is going to be my miracle child.
SIDNER: Then at 13 weeks, she miscarried again. Her sorrow turned to rage when she returned from the hospital.
WAKES: I come home and look in my mailbox, and I see something from the city of Flint saying that pregnant women and people 55 and over should not be drinking this water. And I'm like, are you serious? And I'm just coming home to losing my babies, and now it could have been the water that did this?
SIDNER: Residents still had no idea lead was leeching into their tap water. When Wakes finally did hear about the lead, she had her children tested. Both had lead in their bloodstream.
Then Wakes found out lead in pregnant women can cause miscarriages. No one knows for sure if that's what happened to Wakes. Michigan state officials are now investigating whether the water crisis has had any effect on the number of miscarriages in Flint.
So far, it's too early to tell. In the meantime, the fury of residents is only growing. With the recent e-mails released by the governor's office, even before lead was discovered in the water supply.
One exchange reveals some of his top aides warned there were problems with the water supply and that it should be switched back ASAP.
(on camera): In 2014, the governor's deputy counsel and senior policy adviser e-mails his chief of staff and several others, saying they should stop using the Flint River as a water source due to health concerns.
(voice-over): "I see this as an urgent matter to fix," she writes. Minutes later, the governor's legal counsel responds by saying, "My mom is a city resident. The notion that I would be getting my drinking water from the Flint River is downright scary."
But it took a full year before officials made the switch back to the original, safer water supply.
(on camera): What should happen to the people responsible?
WAKES: I really feel like they should be incarcerated. A resign is really like a slap in the face to me.
SIDNER: Put in jail?
WAKES: Yes. I think that they should be put in jail.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BANFIELD: Just so unbelievable. Is there any research to show other cities that have had a lead problem have had a spike in miscarriages?
SIDNER: You know, Washington, D.C., our nation's capital. There is a Virginia Tech civil engineer, an environmental engineer, Marc Edwards, who looked at a situation there where lead levels spiked in Washington, D.C.
And what he found was that between 30 percent and 60 percent, there was an increase of 30 percent and 60 percent of still births and miscarriages.
Now, the government did a study that contrasted that, but he is now here in Flint looking at this matter. People trust him because they feel like he did really good research, and he is here from Virginia Tech. He is looking into this.
BANFIELD: Just quickly, I notice little Jalen, the 7-year-old, one of her other children. Is he OK?
SIDNER: He's having a lot of problems. He was suspended once the first year they got here. The second year, when the water had been switched over, 56 times he's been suspended from school. He has hyperactivity disorder and he's affected, and his mother feels like it's the water.
BANFIELD: These are one of the, you know, conditions that they say lead will do in developmental delays. Sara, thank you for that. And I know that Sara was also very busy this morning, one of the many CNN volunteers -- thank you for this, by the way -- who pitched in to help residents around Flint this morning.
She was with our other colleague, Martin Savidge, as well as Van Jones and scores of others, who loaded up thousands of cases of fresh water into a truck to be distributed all over the city.
So, this is a big effort, 500,000 bottles in total, CNN wanting to do this. We'd love for you to help as well, cnn.com/impact. Just go to that website, CNN.com/impact. We'd love you to kick in and help out as well. The people of Flint really need their fellow Americans.
Any minute now, Marco Rubio is expected to take the podium at the Conservative Political Action Conference, better known as CPAC. It's live in Maryland. We're waiting to hear how the Florida senator is going to decide today to take on the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, as he addresses this major conservative conference. That's right ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: At any moment now we are expecting Marco Rubio to take the stage at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference being held today in Maryland. We will bring you his speech live as soon as it gets under way.
Following that, the senator heads to his home turf of Florida, later to Puerto Rico to hold rallies in both of those places.
And Ted Cruz's campaign does not want to see Marco Rubio sweep his winner-take-all home state with its 99 delegates. They are preparing an aggressive effort to take on Rubio in Florida, as is Donald Trump.
Let's discuss it all. Joining me now, Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, and historian and professor of Princeton University, Julian Zelizer. Thank you gentlemen for being with me.
Larry, let me begin with you. If Marco Rubio does not take those 99 delegates in Florida, what do you think the path forward looks like for him, because he's only won one state thus far?
LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UVA'S CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well, there isn't a path forward if he can't carry his home state. Maybe he'd want to stay in, but I don't think people would take him all that seriously. You have to carry your home state. That's kind of understood in politics.
HARLOW: Well, Julian, if you look at John Kasich, right, he's admitted, he said if I don't take Ohio, basically, there's no path forward for me. He says he'll take Ohio. He says that will mean a brokered convention.
If you look at latest Quinnipiac polling that's less than two weeks old it shows Trump pretty widely ahead of Kasich in Ohio. How likely do you think it is Kasich takes olio? JULIAN ZELIZER, HISTORY AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS PROFESSOR: I think right now it's not likely. So, this has to change pretty dramatically. Look, part of this is you have to win your home state, and part of it is Donald Trump has the numbers. And if he takes Florida and Ohio, talk of a brokered convention is gone. So, he has to really do a lot of work, as do other Republicans, to cut into Trump's polling there.
HARLOW: So, fascinating piece, guys. I'm sure you both read it, by Peggy Noonan in the "Wall Street Journal," the column yesterday talking about the party as a whole.
I want to read part of it, talking about the Republican Party as it stands right now, "I think we are seeing a great political party shatter before our eyes. I'm not sure I see a way around or through it."
[11:40:05]She argues that at this time with Trump, she says it's different than 1976 or '64 with Goldwater, and here's why. She writes this, she says, "Those battles in the past were over conservatism and actual political philosophy." Julian, to you first, why is it so different this time?
ZELIZER: Well, it is true that Barry Goldwater argued that there had to be this coherent, philosophical shift to the right, and most of the party wasn't there, where Donald Trump is all over the place.
A lot of what he's about is style, mood and approach. That said, we should remember, after 1964, Republicans were devastated. They thought they would never get back in the White House again. And just remember, in 1968, that's exactly what Richard Nixon did.
HARLOW: Yes. All right, I want you both to stand by. We have something that just came in to us, so stay with me, Larry and Julian. I want to go to Brian Todd, live in Bowling Green, Kentucky. You are joined by former GOP presidential candidate, Rand Paul. We want to hear from him. What does he think of everything now?
TODD: I'm going to ask him that very question, Poppy. Actually, Senator Paul is the reason this is even happening today, the reason this is so energetic. Senator Paul really was instrumental in getting this caucus moved to March 5th.
Senator Paul, what do you think of this? Great turnout. Are you surprised?
SENATOR RAND PAUL (R), KENTUCKY: You know, a little bit. We're excited about it, though. This is the first time that my vote or any Kentucky Republican's vote will really count because we're right in the middle of the election.
Usually we don't vote until late May, and a lot of times, the election seems to be over. But it's also exciting because we have local candidates out campaigning, everybody's out here shaking hands. So, it's kind of more of an old-fashioned feel to politics.
TODD: We have to tell viewers, you paid for this because you had to move your presidential ballot to this date, even though you've dropped out of the race. Were you worried going in, because there were maybe some reports that maybe the word wasn't going on, that it may not have great turnout? Not the case here, but were you worried?
PAUL: You know, we didn't know what to think, but I think it is exciting, and I think a lot of people in some ways, we might get a better turnout because we're actually relevant. We're right in the middle of a race that is not yet decided. The other thing about Kentucky is it hasn't been polled very much so I think it's very uncertain who's going to win.
TODD: Brings me to my logical next question. Senator Paul has not cast his ballot yet? Senator Paul, can you tell us who you're going to vote for?
PAUL: You know, I am not going to endorse anybody in the race. I'll keep that private, but I am excited that the caucus looks to be a success. I'm also excited that it's energizing the Republican Party.
We're hoping to take over the state house in Kentucky. We haven't held the state house since 1922, I believe. So, this would be an energizing event f| us to try to take over the state house.
We have four special elections on March 8th. So, on Tuesday, we're going to get a chance to take this energy and transform it into taking over our state house.
TODD: I'll try to narrow it down. Are you going to vote for one of the two senators who are at the top of the ballot?
PAUL: You know, I'm going stay out of it. I want to let Kentucky Republicans make their decision. I've said my piece. I had a few disagreements with many of the people on the stage. And I think that adds to the debate and I think I did my job and now sort of my job is to try to bring everybody together and not continue to divide it up.
TODD: Senator Paul, thank you very much for joining us. Great luck today and congratulations on the turnout.
PAUL: Thank you.
TODD: Thank you. Can't blame a guy for trying. He's not going to tip his hand, Poppy, as to who he's voting for, but he is here and he is the reason that this has been moved to this day, because he could not be on two ballots at once.
HARLOW: Right.
TODD: He's still going to be on the Senate ballot running for re- election to the Senate in May, but they moved it up to March 5th because he wanted to be on the presidential ballot. He's dropped out, but it's still, as Senator Paul pointed out, that still makes Kentucky very relevant in this race.
HARLOW: It certainly does. Ever the dogged journalist, trying to ask him each and every way. Brian Todd, thank you for that. I want to get back to Julian Zelizer and Larry Sabato for their take. Larry, let me go to you. I think one thing we did glean even though we don't who he is going to vote for and he is not endorsing.
One thing we did glean is he talked he used the word consolidate, consolidation and that's different than the strategy that Mitt Romney's putting forth and some of the others are putting forth, which is, you know, go hard for Rubio, Cruz and Kasich, and then the numbers won't add up for Donald Trump.
SABATO: Yes, that's true, Poppy, but there's a reason why. Mitt Romney's not on the ballot this year. And despite all the rumors, I don't think he's going to be, as the surprise nominee of the Republican Party.
But Rand Paul is on the ballot in November for re-election in Kentucky. So, it is very much in his interests, first of all, not to take sides, at least not right now. And second, to encourage party unity, because otherwise, he could suffer at the polls.
HARLOW: But at the same time, Julian, there has been the talk of sort of the down-ticket consequences if Trump is the nominee. That's what the establishment is saying, who doesn't like him, right? So, when you look at someone who is on the ballot, you know, for Senate again -- Rand Paul -- what did you make of what he said on that front?
[11:45:09]ZELIZER: Yes, look, obviously, he and others are very fearful about what's the Trump effect on the congressional races? And that goes back to '64, you know --
HARLOW: Right.
ZELIZER: -- do Republicans get wiped out? I'm not sure that's true. You know, Trump is eliciting a lot of excitement with white voters, many of whom don't have college educations. And you could imagine this turning kind of excitement being translated into some congressional races.
But Paul's smart. Why would you want to put yourself out there right now, like Romney did, when it's unclear how this is going to unfold?
HARLOW: I want to talk to you gentlemen about the dramatic shift we saw from Donald Trump yesterday in terms of his position on torture, frankly. He walked back comments that he had previously made that we should kill -- the U.S. military should kill families of terrorists, that we should go beyond waterboarding.
He talked about that in this statement, sort of reversing course, saying I will not order our military or other officials to violate those laws and will seek their advice on such matters. He went on.
Larry, to you, does the electorate in a general election care that that is a complete reversal of stance?
SABATO: Well, in a general election, it might matter more, although he did change in the direction of the law, so let's give him credit for that.
HARLOW: Right.
SABATO: In a party primary, given the strength, Poppy, that he has with his backers, I don't think it would have mattered one way or the other. He'd never even addressed it again, but I think he did the right thing for the general election, should he be the Republican nominee or an independent candidate.
WHITFIELD: All right, Julian, thank you. Larry Sabato, thank you. You will be back with us, so stand by. We're going to take a quick break. We're back on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:50:34]
HARLOW: All right. Right now we're waiting to hear from Marco Rubio. He's set to speak at CPAC in Maryland. We will bring you those comments live when they happen.
Also, we're waiting to hear from Ted Cruz at a caucus location in Wichita, Kansas. Donald Trump also tweeted he will speak at that location, both gentlemen, in Kansas today.
Our Rosa Flores is there. She is outside that caucus location. Rosa, there was a lot of concern among some that the turnout in Kansas wouldn't be very strong. They didn't know what they would see. That's completely wrong.
FLORES: That is, Poppy. Let me give you a 360 view of the lines in Wichita, Kansas. As far as the eye can see, you can see that people are waiting in line. I chatted with some of the folks.
They said they have been waiting an hour, two hours. Some of these are Trump supporters who were inside the Trump rally who are now coming outside, going where their vote counts, Poppy, and that's at the caucus site so they can cast that vote.
As we keep panning the camera, I want to show you the other side of the line. You can see that it curls around. There are several entrances to the building to caucus, and these folks are waiting in line patiently.
As to who they're going to be voting for, I see a lot of Cruz stickers, a lot of Trump stickers on people as well. Why don't we just ask a few people? If you could raise your hand if you are voting for Ted Cruz, I see lots of hands. What about Donald Trump? Donald Trump.
Were you at the rally, sir, moments ago? Over there. Lots of Trump supporters. What about Marco Rubio? Marco Rubio, one person there. What about Kasich. Anybody for Kasich? This man says maybe for vice president.
We will see about that, Poppy. That just gives you a sense of people that are out here and who they are going to be voting for. Again, here is why this is important.
Out of the 155 delegates up for grabs on Super Saturday, 40 of them are from Kansas. It is no mistake that we see Donald Trump here speaking and also Ted Cruz wanting to grab the delegates, and take them right to the White House -- Poppy.
HARLOW: You know, with Huckabee winning in 2008, Santorum in 2012, in Kansas they want to pick a winner this time, want to pick the person that will go on to get the nomination, the presidency.
Rosa, are they saying anything about what we saw on full display Thursday on the debate stage? So much of the personal attacks, crude discussion frankly. A lot of it outside of anything policy related. Do they care?
FLORES: You know, I talked to a lot of supporters earlier at the Trump rally, some of the people outside. Specifically when it comes about, when you talk about Trump, a lot of people told me they're very upset about the words used by Mitt Romney, that fueled a lot of people to come out here, Poppy.
They said we were very upset because he called Donald Trump a phony and fraud and that just, you know, angered them. They wanted to make sure to be here and support Donald Trump.
The other thing about the controversy regarding the flip flop of torture and the killing of terrorist families, people here see it differently. Folks I talked to at the Trump rally said look, if he were a politician he would have a script that he would read and know exactly what to say because that's the political plan.
People here told me look, he responded because it was response from the heart. He responds because he is passionate. Then he later might get more information and then that's when we of course saw the release from his campaign saying he obviously would follow the laws and would not ask soldiers to violate the laws.
And people say that's not a flip flop, that's simply him gathering more information like any other leader would and then making a decision and presenting that decision. So that kind of gives you a taste, Poppy, as to what people think about some of those controversial topics.
HARLOW: Absolutely. Rosa, what about I'm not sure if they told you or not, but if they want to see some of the other candidates drop out of the race so they can see more of a coming together behind one or two of the candidates in the GOP right now, have they said that?
[11:55:09]FLORES: You know, they haven't spoken about some of the candidates dropping out of the race, but they did tell me this, and people are very excited in Wichita, Kansas, because the candidates are actually in Wichita, Kansas.
They said a lot of times after Super Tuesday the candidates don't travel to the states to stump to get people's votes and they're not aggressive, so I know one gentleman inside told me we're very excited that the candidates are actually here in Kansas and can actually listen to them in person.
It is so important. There's also undecided voters that say we want to listen to what they have to say before we cast a vote.
HARLOW: Rosa, I'm so sorry, I was signaling because I have to interrupt you. Stay with me. We want everyone to listen to Ted Cruz speaking live in Wichita, Kansas.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- and that is a fairly accurate description of Washington, D.C. but you know, we're here this morning for something a lot more important than politics, we are here because our country is in crisis.
We are here because we love our kids and grandkids, and we love freedom and the constitution and we want our country back. This election I believe is going to focus on three key issues.
The first is jobs. For seven years we have been trapped in stagnation. I want to talk to all single moms working two or three part-time jobs, who had hours forcibly reduced to 28, 29 hours a week because Obamacare kicks in at 30 hours a week.
I want to talk to the truck drivers, mechanics, plumbers, and electricians. The men and women who have calluses on your hands. You've seen your wages stagnating year after year. Cost of living is going up but wages don't keep up with it.
I want to talk to all of the young people coming out of school with student loans up to your eyeballs, and you're scared what does the future hold. Am I going to have a job, am I going to have a future?
The media tells us this is as good as it gets. That's an utter lie. The heart of our economy is not Washington, D.C. The heart of our economy is not New York City. The heart of our economy is small business all across this country.
And you want to unleash incredible jobs, take the boot off the federal government off the next and backs of small businesses. If I am elected president, we will repeal every word of Obamacare.
We will pass common sense health care reform that makes health insurance personal, affordable, and keeps government from getting between us and our doctors.
And we will pass a simple flat tax where every American can fill out taxes on a postcard. And when we do that, we should abolish the IRS.
We are going to pull back the federal regulators, the EPA regulators that descended like locusts on farmers, ranchers, small businesses and unleash economic growth.
And we are going to stop amnesty and secure the border and end sanctuary cities. Let me tell you what happens when we repeal Obamacare, when we abolish the IRS, when we pull back regulators, when we stop amnesty, we will see millions and millions of high paying jobs. We will see wages go up and up and up. We will see young people coming out of school getting two, three, four, five job opportunities. We will see morning in America again.
The second key issue in this election is freedom. On the first day in office, I intend to rescind every single illegal and unconstitutional executive action taken by Barack Obama.
