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Presidential Race Heating Up; Shooting Suspect Arrested at White House. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired March 09, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:03]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome, Patricia Mazzei, political writer for "The Miami Herald," David Catanese, senior politics writer for "U.S. News & World Report." Matt Lewis is with us as well, senior contributor to "The Daily Caller" and conservative writer and CNN political commentator, and Maria Cardona, CNN political commentator and Hillary Clinton supporter.

So, nice to have all of you here.

And I guess thank you for having us in your beautiful city of Miami here at the University of Miami ahead of our big debate. We are rolling through. We are rolling through.

Beginning with you here, though, as the Floridian on the news of Jeb Bush, the fact that no news whatsoever of any sort of endorsement ahead of tomorrow night's debate or even the primary here, but what do you make of the fact that he will be meeting with all the candidates except for Trump?

PATRICIA MAZZEI, "THE MIAMI HERALD": I have been wondering all along which side of his advisers is going to win in this kind of tug-of-war, because right after he got out, you had some who were saying you should endorse, you should endorse right away, you should back Rubio. You shouldn't wait a moment. There is no time to lose.

And you had others who were like, whoa, take a breath. Decide what you're going to do. See how things shake out. He has waited a bit. We are less than a week from the primary. So many votes have already come in, in Florida. You have to wonder what an effect endorsement would have and whether this is really more a conversation about how to stop Trump as opposed to who should Bush should endorse

BALDWIN: What do you think it is?

DAVID CATANESE, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": I think talking about endorsements of other candidates is such old-school politics. It just hasn't worked this year.

BALDWIN: We are in a new era.

CATANESE: Well, I just think -- look, Jeb Bush had all the endorsements beforehand, right? He had the most senators, the most governors. (CROSSTALK)

CATANESE: Ted Cruz had the endorsement of the governor of Mississippi last night and he it in the last week. Didn't matter.

I think the most important conversations to be going on would be if there was ever an olive branch between Cruz and Rubio Kasich to form type of fusion to cut some type of deal to stop Donald Trump. I don't think Jeb Bush -- it is a nice headline to get, but does he really bring more voters to the table? I think in this year, those vote are already anti-Trump and he gets you a headline maybe for a couple of hours ahead of a media cycle. But it's not decisive.

BALDWIN: That is an important point, because, Matt, think of the last Republican debate. It wasn't like Cruz and Rubio were attacking one another. They were all attacking Donald Trump.

MATT LEWIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Right.

BALDWIN: If you think this is sort of like -- I think David Chalian the grand pooh-bah or whatever you want to call Jeb Bush, is saying, listen, here's your strategy, to beat them.

LEWIS: Yes. Somebody compared this election to it's like crabs. You put them into a container. If one crab starts to get out, the other ones pull them down.

That's what happened. You basically have any candidate who starts to get ahead, the others turn on him. We have seen that with -- Rubio has definitely taken a beating on that. Everybody says a brokered convention. You can't have a brokered convention because there aren't any brokers. I don't know that Jeb Bush could broker the fusion deal that David is talking about.

I don't know that there is anybody who has the gravitas or the moral authority to say, OK, you are going to be the president, you're going to be the vice president, Cruz, you're going to be the Supreme Court justice.

BALDWIN: Mitt Romney came out and tried to do something and still nothing really has happened for Donald Trump.

(CROSSTALK)

MARIA CARDONA, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: That's exactly right.

Let's remember that Jeb Bush got out early. He had almost zero support from the Republican base. There is a reason why he dropped out. Now, he does still a lot of money or can funnel a lot of money to whoever I think he chooses to be the chosen anti-Trump candidate.

BALDWIN: Right.

CARDONA: But let's remember this. The more that the establishment tries against Trump, if Trump gets to the convention or at some point gets all the delegates he needs to cinch the nomination or even if he gets to the convention without the magic number, but he gets close to it, and the GOP activist base sees that the establishment is trying to bring him down, Cleveland will burn. Cleveland will burn.

LEWIS: Well, the obvious point was that in Florida, Jeb Bush -- if Jeb Bush's endorsement matters anywhere, it would be here right before the Florida primary.

BALDWIN: Well, on endorsements, hang on. Can we talk about Carly Fiorina?

To you, Carly Fiorina...

CATANESE: Another endorsement.

BALDWIN: Another endorsement of Ted Cruz, in case you missed it, of Ted Cruz, who she had -- we could do a whole mash-up all the things, all the negative things Carly Fiorina had said about Ted Cruz when she was running against him. Do you think this is significant?

CATANESE: I don't think it's significant. Again, I think it is a great headline for a couple of hours because we get to talk about it.

But, again, I think all the conversation that needs to be had -- if all these guys really have the party's vested interest, which they're candidates, so they don't always have the party's best interest, it is a conversation that would happen between Rubio and Cruz and possibly Kasich.

BALDWIN: What conversation are you referring to?

CATANESE: The conversation to say, look, we can stop Trump, but we can't stop Trump if all of us are running in all these states all the way through June.

(CROSSTALK)

CATANESE: Cruz can be the president. Rubio, you can be the vice president, because you don't have the delegates for president this time, and we're going to cause a fusion.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Come on, a kumbaya? Let's be real.

CATANESE: Yes. I think if they care about the party and they care about defeating Trump, I think that is the only way.

All these other power brokers, these little endorsements, I don't think add up to a cumulative effect that matter.

[15:05:03]

MAZZEI: I was at a Cruz event this morning. And the voters who were there wanted Rubio out because they were Cruz supporters and they wanted to stop Trump. But they didn't want to stop Trump at a convention. They said -- several people that I spoke to said if he has the delegates and if he has the majority, he is the guy and we will vote for him.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: That's right.

(CROSSTALK)

LEWIS: But he won't have the majority, because he will have a plurality.

If there is a convention, you would -- if there is a contested convention, by definition, Trump would not have the majority. That's going to be lost on a lot of the delegates if Cleveland burns. But if he has a majority, then there won't be an open convention.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Actually, let me hit pause. We have -- stay with me. We're not finished.

But we do have Phil Mattingly, who is standing by. Talk about all these rallies and these data points of all of this. Phil Mattingly is at a John Kasich rally right now.

Phil Mattingly, let's go to you. John Kasich did pretty well in Michigan, was joking about, you know, paying taxes there, he spent so much time. Set the scene for me in Illinois.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Brooke, for John Kasich yesterday, last night was a huge result. It's all leading into his home state contest in Ohio.

Complained often that people weren't paying enough attention to him. According to Kasich now, that has changed. Take a listen, Brooke.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm thinking about launching myself onto the table where the questioners are.

I think it's changing. And I think we are getting the time. We got it in the last debate. And I just have to explain to you, in Michigan, I went from like eight or 9 percent to I don't know where I ended up, 24 or 245 percent. I mean, it's a surge and it's happening because I think people are beginning to hear me.

And I just hope as they begin to hear me, I don't screw it up somehow. I'm going to do my very, very best.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, Brooke, for John Kasich, it really all comes down to Ohio. He said very clearly if he does not win Ohio, he will go home. Now, in the latest CNN/ORC poll, it shows John Kasich trailing Donald

Trump by six points. But his team says he has been making up ground over the last couple of weeks. One key thing to keep an eye on, Brooke, he ran for reelection for governor in 2014. He and his team know that state very, very well. They have a great turnout operation in combination with the Ohio Republican Party. They feel good about where they stand right now, so good, in fact, Brooke, we are in Illinois, another March 15 state, where John Kasich thinks he can make up even more ground and add to that delegate total, which right now even his team is willing to acknowledge is somewhat lacking.

BALDWIN: So, he's in Illinois. It's interesting how some of these candidates are obviously -- they're having to look ahead. He has said over and over though, talking about Ohio, his home state, got to win. Will win.

Let me bring in my panel back in. Phil, thank you so much.

And, Matt Lewis, just back over to you. John Kasich, this is someone that people many sort of thought, well, he's sort of a last note, an asterisk at the bottom of an article. But I was talking to him the other day. He said, listen, I'm the adult in the room. He has been saying over and over. He said there people are beginning to hear me.

Are they?

LEWIS: Yes. I think they actually are.

He benefits by being the anti-Trump. You couldn't be further from Donald Trump than John Kasich. If you are looking -- Rubio has tried -- Rubio obviously is very eloquent, but he's tried to sort of mimic Trump and get down on that level. Kasich has been the guy...

BALDWIN: Is the only one who hasn't.

LEWIS: He is the only one who hasn't. He's a governor of a state, which sets him apart at this point.

And, look, I think John Kasich in a place like Ohio, I would not bet against him winning that. And, you know, I think when it comes to a convention, you could turn to a John Kasich as a possible running mate.

CARDONA: When you see somebody like John Kasich and Democrats can actually see themselves supporting him, you know that he actually is not just the adult in the room, but that's also a reason why he probably doesn't have a chance in the overall Republican primary process.

But let's also remember that after next Tuesday or starting next Tuesday, it's winner-take-all. So Donald Trump can absolutely rack up all of these delegates and get to that magic number. Now, this meeting with Jeb Bush, it should have happened or should happen actually after Tuesday, because that's when you will know if Marco Rubio is able to win his home state, if John Kasich was able to win his home state. And if they weren't, then that is a different conversation, I think.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: But it's interesting when you look at the CNN polls, speaking of home states in both a Rubio and a Kasich. If you look at head to heads between a Trump and a Kasich vs a Trump and a Rubio, it's actually quite tighter in Ohio.

Kasich is faring stronger than a Marco Rubio right here. And I'm looking at you again as the Floridian, because can we talk about Marco Rubio and last night? I mean, is choke the right word? It was a bad night.

MAZZEI: I think the concern is people like to vote for the winner. They like to go to the office the next day and they voted for their -- their guy won, right?

BALDWIN: Yes.

MAZZEI: And even though he is spending time in Florida and dedicating resources to the Florida voter, they are seeing these headlines and they don't necessarily want a guy who is on his way down.

So the question is, can his team on the ground, the ones who are calling absentee voters and going to the early voting sites, persuade those voters, keep those voters and turn them out especially in Miami- Dade County, which is really the heart of his support? Because if he doesn't turn them out here, then he may not be able to turn them out in the rest of the state.

[15:10:14]

BALDWIN: Could he turn it around tomorrow night somehow? He had some really strong debate performances.

Maybe the moment that took him down was Chris Christie, which was a bit of a kamikaze mission, because Chris Christie went away as well. But he has done so well. Is there anything Marco Rubio could do here tomorrow?

CATANESE: Sure. I think we have seen events. And debates have mattered. I think debates, contrary to endorsements no matter, I think debates have mattered. They have mattered every week.

BALDWIN: How do you feel about endorsements again?

(CROSSTALK)

CATANESE: I'm not a big endorsement guy.

But, look, I also think that who has lived off the land as much as John Kasich finishing one second place? This guy has won nowhere and he is in the final four and his hope and prayer is maybe he wins his home state? I mean, that's a pitiful record to say that's your case to be the nominee. I think that's... BALDWIN: Well that's one way to put it.

CARDONA: And tomorrow night will be pivotal. But let's remember that Marco Rubio, his debate performance in the last Republican debate, a lot of people say that that actually helped Ted Cruz because he sullied himself going against Trump.

CATANESE: Well, is he mean Marco? I think that is the question.

CARDONA: That is the question.

BALDWIN: We will see. You all are not leaving. That was round one here. Stick around, because next, Dems, how did Bernie Sanders pull off an upset in Michigan? How did Hillary Clinton lose in a place she was totally favored to win? You mean to tell me all the polls aren't right?

Plus, a chilling case in the case of the man suspected of shooting a pastor who the day before spoke at a Ted Cruz rally. That man has been arrested outside the White House -- we have those details ahead.

And as we showed you at the top of the last hour, Nancy Reagan's casket has officials now arrived at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library there in beautiful Simi Valley, California, lying in repose. Special guests, VIPs, they're expected to pay respects very shortly, including U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan. We will take you back to California.

Keep in mind he funeral right around this time Friday afternoon. We will take it live. Do not miss a beat.

I'm Brooke Baldwin. This is CNN's special live coverage here at the University of Miami.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:16:06]

BALDWIN: I know we keep talking about Republicans. But let's keep in mind just hours from now, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, they will come toe to toe right here in Florida, this just a day after that stunning upset in the state of Michigan, Bernie Sanders edging out Hillary Clinton by just slightly more than 18,000 votes.

Sources within the Clinton campaign say the team was shaken up by the close Michigan race, especially given the Rust Belt states now in the gate, Ohio, Missouri and Illinois coming up.

My panel is back with me, sunscreen and all, as we are again here in Miami.

So, Patricia Mazzei, David Catanese, Matt Lewis, Maria Cardona.

Matt, to you. Let's just talk first about Michigan. Listen, polls can be wrong. They were wrong. I know it was so, so totally tight. And Governor Granholm, Hillary Clinton supporter, said, listen, they saw it. They knew it was so close.

But, still, this is huge for Bernie Sanders, especially when it comes to money, money.

LEWIS: Absolutely. He was sort of ready to fade into that good night. He wasn't going to drop out, but we could have kind of quit paying attention to him. And now it's game on again.

BALDWIN: We are.

LEWIS: I think there is obviously a similarity between Trump and Sanders and in the Rust Belt, working-class white Americans who are fed up with whether it's immigration, whether it's globalization, automation, whatever it is that's changing the economy.

You used to be able to get a job after high school, make $15 an hour at a factory, live the American dream. Those days are gone. And they are mad about it. And I think on the left, it is the Bernie vote. On the right, it's Trump.

BALDWIN: We had a whole conversation. I totally agree with you. We had a whole conversation about that.

But I'm wondering, with the debate -- and we talk about how debates matter -- that moment...

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

BALDWIN: Thank you -- that that moment where Hillary Clinton pulled out of her back pocket at the Detroit debate for the first time and talked about the auto bailout, I'm wondering if that moment helped hurt her and really helped Bernie Sanders.

CARDONA: I actually talked to somebody who had looked at the numbers, and they actually say that that moment did not hurt her and it actually drew some blood from Sanders, because there were very few late deciders in Michigan. And of those few late deciders, I think it was something like 15 percent, Hillary won them by four points.

He didn't have some late surge. What he did have was an amazing campaign. And you have to give it to him. Congratulations, Bernie. It was amazing. And I think what Hillary needs to do now is make sure that she is having the one-on-one conversations with those voters. She didn't campaign, I think, as much she should have in Michigan.

She focused on Flint. She focused on Grand Rapids and she focused on Detroit, but kind of let all the other ones go. And so I think that is going to be the lesson that the Clinton campaign takes from this and really focus on Ohio focus, really focus on that message of middle-class families, working-class families hurting.

Her message does resonate in those areas, and especially with minority communities as well. She has got to make the connection, which she had been making thus far, just didn't make it quite that well in Michigan in order to take her over the top.

Let's remember, though, it was very close and she is still winning in the delegate count.

CATANESE: I think it's too soon to know what happened in Michigan.

I this was a debacle for our profession. Nate Silver, 538 gave her a 99 percent chance of winning. Every poll had her 20 to 30 points up. Well, now you have to look, are the Ohio polls wrong, are the Illinois polls wrong, is Florida wrong? You would think she would roll it up here.

But I don't know what happened. The narrative was, she seized on the Flint water crisis. She went there first. She was losing that county to him last time I checked. And the auto bailout, again, was it new information to voters? Did it hurt, did it help?

I think we still don't know, not even 24 hours later, what happened. I think it's going to be important for us to figure out what happened to know what happens in Ohio and Illinois with similar demographics.

BALDWIN: Univision debate tonight here. You have been talking to many different Floridians. What do you think they want to hear? What will you be watching for?

MAZZEI: Well, Bernie Sanders is still a new person for most Florida voters. He campaigned here for the first time last night, a week before the primary.

[15:20:10]

BALDWIN: Wow.

MAZZEI: I mean, he gave a speech in July in Fort Lauderdale. But it wasn't a campaign rally.

So you have kind this pent-up interest in Bernie Sanders and it all was displayed yesterday in Miami. And he drew thousands of really raucous and rowdy and excited people.

But I would say the average Florida voter hasn't really seen much of Bernie Sanders. Hasn't seen any advertising, hasn't seen him in their state. And so tonight might be an introduction, especially to those Hispanic issues. It is going to be on Univision. There is going to be a focus on Hispanic voters, presumably.

So, it will be a first.

BALDWIN: OK, lightning round.

Tomorrow night, Republican debate here. Your alma mater, University of Miami.

Starting with you, Matt. What needs to happen?

LEWIS: I think Rubio has to bring it. We alluded to it earlier. This is do-or-die time for Marco Rubio. If he loses Florida, completely humiliating and he is out of politics a year from now.

I think Rubio has to bring it. I think though we are going to see nice Rubio. When I say bring it, I don't mean attack Trump. We're going to back to the Marco Rubio who is inspirational, who talks about the American dream, his father the bartender, his mother the maid. That's what he has to do.

BALDWIN: Maria.

CARDONA: I think that's true, but why will that be enough now, when it wasn't enough before?

I think that's the conundrum Marco is in, because even though he brought it in the last debate and it helped Cruz, that seemed to be the moment where everyone realized that Trump can be brought down. But the question is how and by how. And if Marco wants to continue to live another day and actually make a dent and try to win Florida, which is going to be a huge challenge, he is way behind and Trump is ahead.

But if he doesn't win Florida, then I think obviously he is going to have to leave the race. Tomorrow is do or die for him.

BALDWIN: Mr. Catanese.

CATANESE: I am watching Ted Cruz rather than Rubio. I think you are going to see him ask for coalescence around him. He has been doing it in the last few debates.

And I think there is some evidence that it's working, that people are saying Marco can't win so we have got to move to Cruz. I think Cruz is going to continue that message tomorrow to try to...

BALDWIN: He wants to be the anti-Trump guy.

CATANESE: He is going to be the anti-Trump guy, two-man race. I this is the dagger in Rubio's back. I think he needs to beat Rubio on Tuesday so he can be the last man standing against Trump.

BALDWIN: Patricia?

MAZZEI: The other thing that could help Rubio would be Trump having a bad debate. We haven't really talked about the education of Donald Trump as a candidate and how he has gotten better from debate to debate in answering questions and pivoting to the issues he wants to talk about.

But it's possible that somebody could get under skin and that he could have a bad moment in a state that he considers his second home.

BALDWIN: OK. Thank you all so much. Awesome conversation.

And a quick reminder, as if we haven't said it enough, we need to tell you, big night tonight for the Democrats, 9:00 Eastern here. CNN will simulcast the Democratic presidential debate hosted by Univision. And then tomorrow, game on, it is the CNN Republican presidential debate here in Miami days ahead of the extraordinarily important Florida primary March 15.

Coming up next, an Idaho man suspected of shooting a pastor who supports Senator Ted Cruz has now been arrested at the White House. We have details on his bizarre manifesto that named several members of Congress.

Also, of course, we are keeping our eyes very closely honed on these live pictures. This is the casket of former first lady Nancy Reagan, 94 years of age, passed away in her home Sunday morning, lying in repose there at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. VIPs, special guests have had opportunities to pay their respects.

The public will be able to do so today, tomorrow, and then the funeral will be held Friday afternoon. Quick break.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:28:09]

BALDWIN: You are watching CNN, just about the bottom of the hour.

Let me tell you about this man accused of shooting a prominent pastor just after the pastor spoke at a Ted Cruz rally. This individual has apparently been arrested outside of the White House. And he reportedly has concerns about -- wait for it -- space aliens controlling planet Earth.

Police say Kyle Odom allegedly threw flash drives and other items over the White House fence before Secret Service captured him. The pastor he is accused of shooting is expected to survive.

Suzanne Malveaux is on this bizarro case.

Suzanne, what do you know?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is bizarro. It's probably one of the most bizarre cases I have seen here covering the White House.

But, Brooke, we know that there was a list, a manifesto that he had, a number of individuals, more than two dozen names on this list of people that he was describing as really people who are trying to take over Washington, trying to take over the country here, aliens, if you will.

There were a lot of people, senators, as well as members of Congress, senators, and even Israeli officials who were on that list. It was bipartisan and really kind of a who's who, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, John Lewis, Elizabeth Warren, you name it, plus all of the prime ministers of Israel since 1948 on that list, not threatening them, but essentially saying that they were part of this problem, this move, if you will, to take over Washington, to take over politics and corporate America, that they were essentially using the rest of us and treating us like animals in a zoo. I talked to the White House officials about whether or not this guy

was a threat to the president. The Secret Service, White House officials saying, no, that never happened, but he was arrested here yesterday when he threw over those flash drives that included the manifesto and the list of the things that we have uncovered on Facebook and other ways of what it was that he -- who he was targeting and what he believed.

And one of the interesting things, Brooke, is that, if you look at this manifesto, it was not the president that he was necessarily after. It is a very sad reading, but it talks about how he grew up in Idaho.