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Blue Collar Democrats Voting For Trump; GOP Turnout In Florida; CNN Exclusive Inside, Rebel-held City of Aleppo; Donald Trump's Unemployment Rate Claim. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired March 15, 2016 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:30:30]

COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

When voters go to the polls, especially in Ohio, the old Clinton adage still stands. It's the economy, stupid (ph), and here's why. I'm from Ohio. My father was a steel worker and my dreams came true because my family could afford a good life.

Consider this, according to "The New York Times" in 1987 the average wage for an auto maker was $13.50 an hour. In today's dollars that would be $28.90 an hour.

In 2014 an entry level employee made between $14.00 and $17.00 an hour. It could be why so many blue collar Democrats are voting Trump this time around. They feel Democratic policies have not helped them out. CNN's Martin Savidge listened in to one local Ohio radio station to find out why.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've been a registered D since 1980, and I am taking a Republican ballot. I'm supporting Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've had enough of these hand-picked, hand-chosen bought and paid for candidates. Voting for Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: From day one I have been for Donald Trump. And I was a Democrat.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: All right. You see that's Youngstown, Ohio. That's (INAUDIBLE) in blue collar country, right?

With me now, David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, Emily Tisch Sussman, a Democratic strategist and Hillary Clinton supporter, and Nomiki Konst, a Democratic strategist and Bernie Sanders supporter. Welcome to all of you.

NOMIKI KONST, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you.

EMILY TISCH SUSSMAN, CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS ACTION FUND: Thank you.

DAVID PEPPER, CHAIRMAN, OHIO DEMOCRATIC PARTY: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Glad that you're here.

Like I said, I grew up -- I grew up in a whole family of blue collar Democrats. Support for a Republican candidate is nothing new to me. I was actually talking about that in 2012 when President Obama ran for office. So why are we so surprised at this, David?

PEPPER: You know, obviously in the short term there has been a lot of hype about Trump, but I think as people look closely, this is a guy who -- and I think in the second debate said he thinks wages are too high.

And as one of your guests just talked about when he had to make ties in church, he did it in China and Bangladesh. So I'm very confident as people who are frustrated about having wages be stagnant, which they've been in Ohio since 1984 they'll actually see the Democrats are the ones who are offering better solutions. Donald Trump is talking a good game right now, but his record and his prior words aren't consistent with that at all.

John Kasich also has just been terrible for workers in Ohio. I disagree with some of your prior guests. He's attacked workers. Wages are stagnant. Our economy has not recovered quickly. Actually it has been slower than the national average for 38 straight months. So as we have time over the course of the -- of the rest of the election, we're very confident that those frustrated workers will see the Democrats have actually the right solutions for them.

COSTELLO: So Emily, do you think it's overblown that, you know, we keep talking about blue collar Democrats switching to Republican to vote for Donald Trump? Is that overblown?

SUSSMAN: Well, I do think it is to some extent. I think it makes an interesting story. I think that, you know, trade is obviously a very big deal as the party chairman was just talking about in Ohio. Manufacturing is big deal in Ohio.

I actually think that what we'll see today is going to be very interesting in terms of Democrats voting in Republican -- in the Republican primary. I actually think it's going to go both ways. I think will be some that will vote for Trump. But I actually think there are a lot that are just -- everyone is really into gaming out -- gaming out this election, right?

So there's a lot of Democrats who are -- who feel that both Sanders and Clinton are good options but the prospect of a Trump presidency is so terrifying that they're willing to cross over to vote in the Republican primary to vote for Kasich, most likely. If he wins in Ohio, he would clear something of a path during a brokered convention. It would be the only real chance to go with a candidate who is not either Trump or Cruz who is equally as terrifying to a lot of people. So I actually think we're going to see a lot of crossover voters for a lot of reasons. COSTELLO: I think you may be right about that. It's been an interesting election.

Nomiki, I know that Bernie Sanders' anti-trade talk is resonating. But even if manufacturing jobs came back to Ohio or to Illinois or to Pennsylvania it wouldn't be the same. We don't make widgets (ph) anymore. Manufacturing if brought back here should be high-tech. It pays more. So why is it your candidate and other candidates talking about that?

KONST: That's a great question, Carol. I think that's the next generation of the debate to be quite honest.

I mean, listen, 60,000 factories alone in the last 15 years have been shut down. That's over 5 million jobs affecting the rust belt region. I'm from Buffalo. I grew up there. I remember those factories soaring. My grandparents worked in those factories.

[10:35:03]

They're not opening more. They're empty. They're decay -- they're decapitating. They're falling apart. But, you know, a lot of new companies are coming in because of tax incentives.

So I think that's the next generation of the conversation, you know. But to go back to what Emily is saying, I'm a little bit worried. I looked at some of the numbers already for who is switching parties. It looks like more Republicans are -- more Democrats are switching to Republican primary in Ohio right now. Mahoning County alone has 14 percent of Democrats switching to Republicans. That's 1,000 voters. That's before voting started today because early voting started in mid February.

So this is something that we have to think about. This is a prequel to the general election. Ohio is a very important state and both Hillary Clinton -- but in particular, I think, Bernie Sanders, because most of his vote right now in Ohio that he has to depend on other than the youth vote, and it's spring break right now, is this blue collar Reagan Democrat. But you know David's correct --

COSTELLO: Here's the thing -- here's the thing about Mahoning County, right? So every year Democratic candidates go down to Mahoning County and they talk about how they can help the blue collar workers and they talk about how they can help Youngstown, a city that really is in desperate need of help, and nothing ever happens. And I think that, David, so you're from Ohio. You know what I'm talking about. I think they've had it.

PEPPER: Yes. Actually though I would say in the last five years what they saw from Democrats was the auto recovery, and a lot of other good things that helped.

Most of the Ohio recovery that has happened has come from national policies like that. The reason the Ohio economy has not recovered as fast as other states is actually because of policies from people like John Kasich. So the national policy has been helpful. We've seen new auto -- the development in jobs in places like Lordstown right near Youngstown. What we've seen from John Kasich and Republicans trickledown economics, tax cuts for the rich. A lot of money taken from communities like Youngstown. That's why I disagree with one of your guests.

If they're showing up -- if Democrats are going to the Republican primary, a lot of those Democrats know that a lot of the stuff out of John Kasich being a moderate is just not true. They've seen five years of attacks on Democrats, and workers, and voting rights, and women. So if they are straying, it's probably more for Trump than Kasich. Because unlike other states, they know that this whole narrative by Kasich of the Ohio miracle just isn't true, and they know he' has not worked across party lines.

COSTELLO: We're watching by the Bernie Sanders is at a breakfast in Chicago. He's sitting down with voters and talking to them. That's what we're looking at right now.

Emily, a question for you. Going back to those blue collar Democrats. Hillary Clinton has never been popular among that electorate. And I think it's because -- I think what many people don't understand about blue collar Democrats, men in particular, is they're socially conservative, right? They're -- they're not so into gay marriage or gun control or abortion. Is that why blue collar men aren't so attracted -- older blue collar men aren't so attracted to Hillary Clinton?

SUSSMAN: It certainly is possible. And she does do better in Democratic primaries so I will say in -- with older voters in general. So there may be something of a little bit of a disconnect there.

But you know, we've had this discussion about voters crossing over between Democrat and Republican to vote in this primary. Whether it's the Democratic policies that are going down that are hurting the voters. But I think the party chair is making a great point here. The national recovery from the recession has been back but not in Ohio. So that is actually something that voters should take to consideration and take to the polls.

The median household income in Ohio is actually back to prerecession rates. It has not gone up. So why isn't Ohio recovering with the rest of the state? There has been Republican governor, Republican controlled legislatures. So it is something to think about when they're going to the polls and deciding who's actually going to be leading the state. There are state primaries going on today too which could potentially factor in a little bit.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. David Pepper, Emily Tisch Sussman, Nomiki Konst, thanks to all of you.

KONST: Thank you.

SUSSMAN: Thank you.

PEPPER: Thank you.

COSTELLO: All eyes -- you're welcome.

All eyes are on Florida and Ohio as Marco Rubio and John Kasich fight for home state wins, but Missouri could be a chance for all of the candidates to pick up delegates. The delegates there are broken up proportionately unless a single candidate gets 50 percent of the vote.

Brian Todd is in St. Louis this morning. Hi, Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. A pretty dynamic situation here in St. Louis, Missouri. It's a big state today, a very important state in the voting today. We are at the Immaculate Heart of Mary church in southern St. Louis. A middle class area. Pretty much evenly split. Louis (ph) is a little bit Democratic but pretty evenly split between the parties.

Fifty-two delegates at stake here on the Republican side, 71 delegates at stake on the Democratic side. We're going to show you how the vote is going to work here.

Four precincts vote at this polling station at the church. People check in here, show a photo I.D. and then they get their choice here of paper ballot which is then optically scanned into a machine over there or touch screen. Here are some sample ballots right here.

You have got the Republicans striped in red. Democrats striped in green. We've sampled dozens of people here, Carol, coming out of the polls.

[10:40:02]

And you know, it's pretty evenly split here between Democrats and Republicans. But there are a few late deciders. And a lot of them have told us they've gone for Ted Cruz at the last minute. Because what everybody is talking about here in St. Louis tons of voters we've talked to were talking about that rally that Donald Trump had last Friday where there were more than 30 people arrested. That's on the minds of a lot of Republican voters here.

Some of them have told us they decided late to go for Ted Cruz because of the division that that rally symbolized. They got turned off by Trump. But some of them said that rally actually solidified their vote for Donald Trump.

This is where the vote is going to be tabulated here in that machine right there, Carol. And then we'll throw it over to the precinct captains at headquarters not far from here for the tabulations at about 8:00 p.m. Eastern time when the polls close here.

COSTELLO: You always make it sound so exciting, Brian. I love that about you. Brian Todd reporting live from St. Louis this morning. Thank you.

Let's talk about the Florida primary now. Early voting has been much higher than usual, 15 percent statewide among Republicans. That's according to the "Wall Street Journal". In my counties about half of these early voters did not vote at all in the 2012 GOP primary. Republican Blaise Ingoglia represents Florida's 35th district in the state House. He's also chairman of the Florida Republican Party. Welcome back, sir.

BLAISE INGOGLIA (R), FLORIDA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: It's good to be back. Thank you, Carol.

COSTELLO: Nice to have you here.

So what is your prediction for the great state of Florida on the Republican side?

INGOGLIA: Well, we're seeing -- I think we're going to see record turnout. As of this morning we've had about 1.17 million ballots cast, I think. We're seeing a little bit lighter than normal turnout right now. But we think that's because we've had record turnout in terms of early and absentee voting.

So it's going to be -- I think it's going to be close. I don't think it's going to be as far off as what the -- what some of the polls are suggesting. We're expecting a tight and competitive race.

COSTELLO: Really? Because most of the polls show Donald Trump way ahead of Marco Rubio. So Marco Rubio could do -- could do better than expected?

INGOGLIA: Yes, I think Marco Rubio -- Senator Rubio can do better than expected.

Some of the polling that we have seen, that is polling that is self- identified Republican voters. They're not necessarily calling off of the voter rolls. So some of the polling that we have seen where they're actually calling off the voter rolls it has been a lot closer. And look, if anybody can pull off a statewide race as an underdog, Marco Rubio can do it because he did it in 2010. We've already seen him do it.

COSTELLO: Are you seeing people switching parties as a lot of people are in other states?

INGOGLIA: Yes. We are. That has been a dynamic not only just in the state of Florida but we've seen that across the United States.

The competition -- just this year competition itself, there are a bunch of people coming out, switching parties to vote for Mr. Trump. But the competition themselves all these voters are not necessarily voting for Mr. Trump they're also voting for all of our candidates. And what you're seeing with that is you're seeing -- you're seeing the Republican Party, we are a lot more energized than what we're seeing over the Democrat -- Democrats.

Overall 67 percent increase in voting on the Republican side, and a drop of about 35 percent on the Democratic side. We are much more energized than Democrats this time around. COSTELLO: So in your mind, those Republicans -- those Democrats who

are switching parties to vote for Donald Trump, what do they see in Donald Trump?

INGOGLIA: Well, it's not just the Democrats, it's the Democrats, the Republicans, and the independents. I think what everybody is seeing in this election is that they're just tired of the failed policies of the last seven years and they're really afraid of having another four, possibly eight years of continued failed policies of Obama.

Listen, if Hillary Clinton sees the inside of the Oval Office, what everybody is really afraid of is more record debt, more stagnation in the economy, and unfortunately, a five to four liberal majority for the Supreme Court. That's what's driving the competition. That's what's driving people to turn out in this election.

COSTELLO: When it all comes down to it, do you think that because Senator Rubio is a sitting senator, that's really what -- why he's not doing so well in Florida, even in his own state?

INGOGLIA: Well, look obviously the polling -- like I said before, the polling is suggesting that Mr. Trump has a lead right now. But overall, what the Florida voters are most worried about from what I've seen is the economy. So an economic message, a message of prosperity and opportunity is the one that's going to resonate this election.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. Blaise Ingoglia, thanks so much for joining me this morning. I appreciate it.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, CNN is the only western news organization to get inside the rebel-held Syrian city of Aleppo. Our exclusive report next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:49:09]

COSTELLO: The effects of the Russian air campaign are best seen in the rebel-held areas of Aleppo. Once Syria's largest city much of it has been reduced to rubble. Many of the residents are gone.

CNN's senior international correspondent Clarissa Ward is the only western journalist to visit Aleppo in more than a year. To get there she had to travel the treacherous highway known as "Death Road".

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLARISSA WARD, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You can tell when you're getting closer to Aleppo. The streets are pockmarked with the aftermath of fresh air strikes. Berms of earth flank the road to protect the way from enemy fire. It's a dangerous journey to a city few dare to visit.

We now have to drive extremely quickly along this portion of the road. Because on one side you have the regime and on the other side you have Kurdish fighters who are now fighting against rebel forces, and there are snipers all around here, but this the only road now to get into Aleppo.

[10:50:11]

As you arrive in the city, the scale of the destruction is breathtaking. Stretching on and on, entire residential neighborhoods reduced to rubble. Aleppo was once Syria's largest city, a bustling economic hub now an apocalyptic landscape.

Russian war planes have bombed these areas relentlessly, allowing government ground forces to encircle rebel-held eastern part of the city. Still, we found pockets of life among the devastation. A fruit market huddled in the shadow of a bombed out building, a line of people waiting patiently to collect water, now a precious resource here.

This is basically what is left of rebel-held Aleppo. After months and months of thousands of Russian bombs raining down on here, the streets are largely deserted. The buildings have been destroyed, and the people who once lived here have been pushed out. And the very few residents who are still here who we've spoken to have told us that they don't expect the situation to get any better. In fact, they're convinced it will only get worse.

Seventy year old Souad has lived in this city for 40 years. Her grandson Farouq is a fighter with the Islamist rebel group Ahrar al- Sham. In all, nine members of her family have been killed in the fighting, including two of her three sons.

SOUAD, ALEPP RESIDENT (via translator): They all died on the front line. We raise our heads high for them. God willing, they are in paradise.

WARD: What would it take for you to leave Aleppo?

FAROUQ, AHRAR AL-SHAM FIGHTER (via translator): It is true, there are shelling and Russian planes, and Iranian militias, and every day there is a massacre, but it is enough for us to express our religion and our faith as free people without anyone stopping us. It is enough for us to fight this (INAUDIBLE) and defend our honor and our women.

SOUAD (via translator): Should we leave our country and go to another country? No. This is our country, and we will remain in this until we die.

WARD: The people clinging onto life here feel that the world has abandoned them, leaving them only with God. Their existence becomes more precarious with every passing day, but surrender is unthinkable.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: Clarissa Ward joins us live.

So the news today is Russia says, you know, mission accomplished, and when we see Aleppo, is that what -- is that what Vladimir Putin means?

WARD: Well, it's hard to know exactly what Vladimir Putin means, and having lived in Russia twice, I think I've learned my lesson in trying to interpret the tea leaves. But his stated goal was to destroy terrorism in Syria. ISIS is still in control of large swaths of territory in the east of the country. Jabhat (ph) al-Nusra (ph) the al-Qaeda affiliate still has a strong presence in the part of the country where I was.

So as for mission accomplished, it doesn't really seem so, but certainly for the people you saw in our story from Aleppo, there is now maybe a glimmer of hope that potentially that aerial bombardment which have been so relentless could now abate a little bit.

COSTELLO: So were there ever ISIS terrorists in Aleppo?

WARD: Isis did have a presence in Aleppo some time ago.

Ironically, it was actually more moderate rebel factions who pushed them out of Aleppo. Those moderate rebel factions have in fact been on the receiving end of the Russian and regime bombs that have been raining down on them. So there's this kind of absolute quagmire where have you have the U.S. backing rebels to fight ISIS which Russia is then bombing in the name of fighting ISIS.

It's a little difficult to decipher exactly what President Putin's real goal was here. I think many people would argue it was to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and certainly Russia has done a lot towards helping the regime survive.

COSTELLO: Clarissa Ward, many thanks.

WARD: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Amazing reporting.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, Donald Trump thinks the unemployment rate is 10 times higher than the White House says it is. Really?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:58:40]

COSTELLO: The official unemployment rate is now 4.9 percent but Donald Trump says it could be as high as 42 percent.

Christine Romans is with us. Wow.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: How did he get to that number? (INAUDIBLE) interview Donald Trump has claimed the official unemployment rate number is eight times the published rate.

Just this weekend he told Don Lemon -- quote -- "As you know, as people give up looking for jobs, all of a sudden they are considered employed statistically."

That's not true. They are not counted as employed.

He also says this. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: All of those numbers are not true. To make it to 42 percent, he would have to count every single person who is not working and then some. Everyone from students to retirees to stay at home parents, people who don't want to, people who don't have to work, and to some degree people who have given up looking or on disability.

The official unemployment rate is an active measure of who is looking for work. It is 4.9 percent. There's another unemployment rate also helpful to assess the job market. The underemployment rate, Carol, is 9.7 percent. Those are people looking for work.

[11:00:00]

Those working part-time but want a full-time job, discouraged workers, those who have given up looking for work but would like to.