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Brokered Republican Convention?; President Obama Names Supreme Court Nominee. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired March 16, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:00:12]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And we continue on. You are watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you for being with me.

President Barack Obama has just selected the man he would like to see replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and set the stage for a political showdown. We are talking about Merrick Garland, now the most talked-about man in Washington, D.C.,

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I have fulfilled my constitutional duty. Now it's time for the Senate to do theirs. Presidents do not stop working in the final year of their term. Neither should a senator.

JUDGE MERRICK GARLAND, U.S. SUPREME COURT NOMINEE: Fidelity to the Constitution and the law has been the cornerstone of my professional life and is the hallmark of the kind of judge I have tried to be for the past 18 years. If the Senate sees fit to confirm me to the position for which I have been nominated today, I promise to continue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Let's be clear. President Obama may have made his choice, but Senate Republicans say that is as far as this whole thing will go, vowing not to vet, not to hold hearings on Garland, and insisting the decision should be made by the time the next president who is elected.

Here was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY), MAJORITY LEADER: The next justice could fundamentally alter the direction of the Supreme Court and have a profound impact on our country.

So, of course, of course, the American people should have a say in the court's direction. It is a president's constitutional right to nominate a Supreme Court justice. And it's the Senate's constitutional right to act as a check on a president and withhold its consent.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BALDWIN: Joining me now, Dana Bash, CNN chief political correspondent, and Jeffrey Toobin, senior legal analyst and author of "The Oath," former federal prosecutor and staff writer at "The New Yorker."

Great to have both of you on.

Jeffrey Toobin, I'm turning to you. Why -- you know his resume. Why would he be the president's pick?

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Because it takes the issue of qualifications off the table completely.

BALDWIN: Because he is so qualified.

TOOBIN: By any standard, he is qualified to be a Supreme Court justice. So the senators are left with one argument, which is a process argument, which is, we want the next president to pick because we are in an election year.

That is not an especially appealing political argument, considering we have a president, we have a senator, we have senators. So that's -- and, I think, the president thinks if anyone's going to get through, a 63-year-old who would not serve as long as someone in their 40s, the Senate might relent at some point perhaps even after Election Day.

BALDWIN: Supported by the seven senators who are still sitting, including the Senator Orrin Hatch.

But, Dana, to you, thinking of Capitol Hill, I think what is also interesting here is not only are the Republicans not holding any kind of hearing, vetting. I was listening to Manu Raju earlier saying they are not even doing like background, the FBI background checks. That is so how not into this they are going.

But I do know that the president said the judge will be going to Capitol Hill to meet with some of the members of Congress tomorrow. What does that conversation look like? Like, talking about the weather? I'm being kind of serious.

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: No, that's a great question.

He's going to meet with Democrats. That's a given.

BALDWIN: OK.

BASH: The question is his meetings with Republicans. Now, we have heard from Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, that he will not meet with him because he considers it a waste of time because of all the reasons you just listed. They are not even going to consider him officially or otherwise.

But the question is for the Republicans who are vulnerable, up for reelection in November. Several of them have told Ted Barrett and Manu Raju and others on Capitol Hill that they will have a meeting with the nominee, but that's where it stops, that -- because they will meet with anybody. That's their argument.

But to your point, those conversations are going to be like, what are you going to talk about? I mean, my sense is that you are talking about Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Susan Collins of Maine. Kelly Ayotte is one who is in a particularly tough reelection race. Susan Collins is just kind of one of the only remaining moderate Republicans and she's from a bluish state.

What are those conversations like? I'm guessing it's, I think you are really qualified. I'm sorry you are in this position. It's not you. It's the guy who nominated you.

BALDWIN: And in terms the stakes, and we will listen to how those meetings go, Jeff Toobin, the stakes, you have four and four now. Four liberal justices, four conservative justices That's why this is so extraordinarily important.

[15:05:05]

Is it possible the president knows he's putting this person up, perhaps he won't make it because of the fight, leaving an opening down the road for an even more liberal justice if Hillary Clinton is president?

TOOBIN: That's certainly possible.

BALDWIN: I don't know if I'm getting conspiracy theory here.

TOOBIN: Well, look, this is a political act. Everybody involved knows the politics of the situation.

Younger nominees like Sri Srinivasan, who many of thought -- who the White House all but announced was a finalist, is in his late 40s. He will not go through this process now. He will not be damaged by it, as a nominee might be.

So he would go into a perhaps future nomination with a cleaner slate. The other option, the point to be made is that by not picking someone with more immediate appeal, not picking a woman, not picking a minority, the president loses an opportunity to motivate his base voters for the election coming up.

That's something that I think a lot of Democrats are disappointed by. But that's just not how the president rolls.

BALDWIN: OK, Jeff Toobin, thank you very much. Dana Bash, thank you as well.

Speaking of the presidency, let's go to this, the race for the White House.

Here we are. We are working up on Wednesday after some massive wins for several of these candidates here after Super Tuesday part three. The Republican Party now needs to come to terms with the delegate math and shows a contested convention is as likely as ever. While Donald Trump swept in three states Tuesday, his loss to Governor

John Kasich of Ohio means this, that Trump has to do better than he has been doing at winning delegates from here on out, getting more than 50 percent of the delegates left. You with me? Now, this is not impossibly, but it could be improbable.

President Obama's 2008 campaign manager actually told FOX News, saying -- quote -- "We have never seen anything like this in politics. Democrats should not be popping champagne corks since Donald Trump is doing so well." That was David Plouffe.

Joining me now, CNN political commentator Van Jones, used to be an adviser in the Obama White House. Ryan Williams is back with us as well, former spokesman for Mitt Romney when he served as governor of Massachusetts, and CNN national political reporter Maeve Reston.

So, awesome having all of you on.

And, Maeve, I mean, if I can just begin with you and your extraordinary reporting on CNN Politics, you make a lot of points. But let me just begin with this line from you. "Not only did the political world underestimate Trump's electoral strength, for months, they belittled his candidacy with all the theatrics as a joke and failed to heed the signs of seismic change."

So, to your point about this sort of now semi-recent anti-Trump movement and then the conservative super PACs and the millions of dollars, too little too late or not quite?

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Too little too late is what it looked like last night. But I think the big question everyone is having today, the donors, the people who have involved in this anti-Trump effort is, did they have enough time to do what they wanted to do to Donald Trump before Tuesday night?

This was a very late, late effort pulled together, kind of siren call that went out to donors to put in a huge amount of money to try to not knock Donald Trump out before Super Tuesday, but start to bring down his delegate count. We saw kind of a mixed bag last night on that front. But I think what's clear is that the establishment clearly did not realize this was going to be an issue in time.

They waited too long and now they have a huge task in front of them, which is to try to take down someone who has been building his brand for some decades now. There will be a lot of donors today that will look at last night's results and say I don't know if it's worth the investment, can we really blunt this guy's momentum? It is just a huge, fascinating conversation that is going on right now within the Republican world.

BALDWIN: Perhaps there was definitely underestimating among Republicans. We were talking about this, what, last summer. And here we are, he could clinch it ultimately.

Van, to you on the Democrats and David Plouffe's claim. I was talking to Brian Fallon last hour, press secretary for Hillary for America. They might have been popping bottles last night after a pretty good night that Hillary Clinton had, but I don't know if they are quite popping bottles ahead of November.

How seriously do you think Democrats really need to take Mr. Trump?

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: A lot more seriously than we have. This is Trumpzilla. This guy destroyed the Republican establishment just hands down. It was ugly.

There is not one establishment Republican left except for Kasich, who has one state to his name. And he can't go anywhere beyond. This is a phenomenon. And you have liberals from coast to coast who are saying, well, he can't win. It can't happen here.

[15:10:02]

It is happening here. I don't know what more evidence liberals need to take this seriously than the fact that...

BALDWIN: Is it denial?

JONES: It's just some bizarre mental, I don't know, brain fart.

Listen, you can't sit here and look at these numbers and see this guy winning in state after state, region after region, rich people, poor people, Smurfs, Muppets, everybody in the Republican Party, and not begin to panic.

I am suggesting there is a time for calm. There is a time for panic. Democrats should be panicking. Please start.

BALDWIN: OK. So memo to Democrats, panic.

Ryan, to you as the Republican. He is talking about you as well.

RYAN WILLIAMS, REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN CONSULTANT: Yes, look, Donald Trump is a unique candidate, and a political phenomenon. This is totally unexpected. Many in the Republican Party didn't see this coming and they let him get out of control.

And I think Van is right. Democrats should take him seriously. I think he has the potential to be a weak candidate given the statements he has made, but the rules are off this cycle. No one knows what's going to happen at this convention, no one knows what is going to happen in the fall. And I think Democrats would be ill-advised to underestimate him.

BALDWIN: We are perhaps getting a piece of foreshadowing of what it could look like if it ultimately is Trump v. Hillary, because we now have this video from the Trump campaign. This is from his Instagram. Roll it.

I mean, Hillary Clinton barking, Ryan, and Vladimir Putin laughing. Is this officially the Trump pivot? Is this day one of taking on Hillary Clinton and the foreshadowing of the tone that we will be talking about the next six months? WILLIAMS: I think so. I think Trump is beginning to position himself

for the general election. He backed out of the debate next week.

I think he wants to try to set his sights on Hillary Clinton, which anybody would do at this point given his position. You want to look to the general election, act like you're already the nominee.

BALDWIN: It behooves him.

WILLIAMS: Yes, it helps him. It makes him look like he is already the nominee, even though there is still a lot more voting to go before the convention.

BALDWIN: And then, Van, as far as Hillary Clinton is concerned, she is still fighting the good fight with a very fierce rival in Senator Bernie Sanders. She may not clinch until the end of May.

What is that like, do you think, for the Democrats in terms of a balancing act? Can't set their sights on Donald Trump yet if he is the nominee.

JONES: Well, look, obviously, if you are Hillary Clinton, you are a little bit annoyed, but, look, Bernie Sanders has a lot of momentum still. There are many more good states ahead for him and he wants to be able to go in those states and to compete and get more delegates.

The math looks very, very hard for him, but his train hasn't come to a stop. Fortunately, Trump can't just turn and fire on her either. He still has to worry about his map and his math. That is a very good thing for Democrats.

Look, Democrats are not psychologically ready. Everything that Democrats have accused Republicans of, waiting too late, not taking him seriously, Democrats are doing to the 20th power. You have really got to worry about a Donald Trump and what he might be able to do in the Rust Belt, a Michigan, a Pennsylvania, an Ohio, to a Hillary Clinton, because he can say I'm against NAFTA. She is for NAFTA. She signed -- her husband signed a document that took your job.

That is a very tough message. We have got get ready for this guy. He is not a joke. People will take him seriously in the states that matter come November.

BALDWIN: I mean, even in terms of optics, Maeve, and I want you to jump in, when I keep seeing these pictures of Donald Trump flanked by all these American flags on the evening after his wins on these recent Super Tuesdays, talk about looking presidential, there you go.

JONES: Except for when the riots are going on. Anyway.

BALDWIN: Except for that.

RESTON: Yes, exactly.

I mean, he has tried that kind of on and off over the last couple of months, right, being flanked by the flags and kind of calming down his tone. I think to Van's point what is really scary for Democrats and for Hillary Clinton is that he is such an unpredictable candidate, they don't know exactly how he will take on Hillary Clinton.

Look at all the Republican candidates he demolished so far. And he keeps telling his crowds, like he did here in Florida, that he hasn't even started on Hillary Clinton yet. I think we have no idea yet what the attacks are going to look like and what the potential is.

Hillary Clinton keeps getting dragged to the left in this fight with Bernie Sanders on issues from immigration to trade. And Donald Trump, as Van was saying, has a chance to come into the Rust Belt and say, wait a minute, she is way too liberal. I'm going to going to be more of a centrist, stick with me. And so it will be a fascinating debate that plays out.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: You mentioned riots. Hang on. Let me just hit pause because I want to take you guys all over a commercial break.

Donald Trump says there will be riots in Cleveland if he is denied that nomination. I do want to go through and talk about that.

[15:15:10]

Plus, Ted Cruz, got to mention Ted Cruz picking up the support of a member of the Bush family. Not Jeb. Not George W. Our interview with that member of the Bush family ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If we're you know 100 short and we're at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400, because we're way ahead of everybody, I don't think you can say that we don't get it automatically. I think it would be -- I think you would have riots. I think you would have riots.

You know, I'm representing a tremendous, many, many millions of people.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BALDWIN: That was Donald Trump on with Chris Cuomo this morning.

So my panel is back, Van Jones, Ryan Williams, Maeve Reston.

Ryan, to you, do you agree if Donald Trump let's say comes within 100 delegates of the magic number, will the RNC just go ahead and give it to him?

[15:20:01]

WILLIAMS: No. I don't think so. He needs to win 1,237 delegates to get the nomination. And he doesn't, we're going to have a contested convention. Those are the rules. You have to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Is that a mistake, though? Do you think he has a point in the riots or at least a bit of a bloodbath within the Republican Party?

WILLIAMS: No, look, those are the rules. He will have to go to a convention. He will have to take his delegates in. He will have to go to maybe a second or a third ballot. And he is free to try to get more support, but those are the rules.

He needs to get a majority of the delegates at the convention to win.

JONES: And that's how it should be.

WILLIAMS: That's what he is going to have to do.

JONES: Brooke, listen, this is very, very troubling.

First of all, there are rules, and part of being a leader in a party and frankly of a party is your ability to unite that party. He should be able to get the extra 100 people from a Kasich or from a Rubio. And if he can't, there is something wrong with his leadership.

Judy to already be threatening violence, that was of a threat. Well, geez, there's going to be riots if I don't get my way.

Look, you are not a toddler. This is not preschool. There are rules. And that is why this guy should not be president, because I don't understand why he thinks that he can break every rule, every norm, and get away with it. If anybody else in American life said give me my way or there are going to be riots, nobody would put up with it.

BALDWIN: So, Maeve, Van hears it as a threat. I'm curious what you think. And also -- just I also want you to talk about what won't be happening Monday night.

RESTON: Well, I think that the thing about Trump and the fact that he is -- you go to his rallies here. You have been to his rallies.

You feel that electricity in the crowd. I think the point he was making this morning is that he has incredibly passionate supporters who would be very angry if other candidates came in and swept, trying to push this to a contested convention. I don't think any of us know what that looks like.

We know there have been already some violent clashes between protesters at his rallies. I think that's the conversation that's happening right now within the Republican Party is, how much of a risk are we running by continuing to run these anti-Trump efforts, angering his supporters, not only splintering the party, but potentially decimating the party going into November when he is up against Hillary Clinton, potentially, who potentially is a really strong candidate?

(CROSSTALK) BALDWIN: Go ahead, Van.

JONES: This is terrifying.

Listen, you can't threaten violence in the American system if you don't get your way. Fine, look, if he can't figure out a way to get an extra 100 delegates for himself, he probably shouldn't be the leader of the free world. OK?

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: But, Van, let me just push on you, because this is perhaps what team Trump would say. He is not threatening riots. He is just saying, to Maeve's point, he is surrounded by passionate people, and if he gets close, but doesn't quite make that number, that there will be riots.

JONES: Then he should be able to say...

(CROSSTALK)

JONES: Go ahead. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

(CROSSTALK)

RESTON: Just talking to -- I was talking to many of the people in his crowd over this weekend in Florida here about what they would do if the rest of the Republican establishment pushes this toward a contested convention.

BALDWIN: What did they say?

RESTON: And those people said, I will be out there doing everything I can to get him elected. I will be volunteering. I will be all in.

That is already -- that idea is already enraging them. And Donald Trump pointed out that there were millions and millions of dollars spent against him up until last night, and at the same time, he still pulled off these victories.

So, it shows the passion and enthusiasm is there. And messing with that is going to be a big risk for the Republican establishment.

BLITZER: Yes, to be continued.

Listen, none of us have any idea what Cleveland could look like. Maeve Reston, Ryan Williams, and Van Jones, thank you all so very much.

With this whole possibility of a brokered convention, if that's what we end up with come July in Cleveland, Ohio, what would that actually look like, rule-wise, procedurally? What kind of loyalty to these delegates who eventuate in Cleveland, what loyalty do they have? David Chalian joins me next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [15:28:35]

BALDWIN: Donald Trump has certainly won the majority of Republican contests thus far. Yet the establishment wing of the party appears still hesitant to fully embrace him as their nominee. With rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich still in the race, is the idea of a brokered convention truly, truly a reality? If so, here's what would happen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NARRATOR (voice-over): Brokered conventions are rare. The last GOP brokered convention was back 1948.

But what exactly is it? A brokered convention happens when no candidate has the majority of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. The Republican candidate needs 1,237 to win the nomination. What happens at a brokered convention?

First, a delegate vote is taken. This is called the first ballot. And if no candidate has the number of delegates needed, the convention is considered brokered. And things start to get a bit more complicated.

Once the convention is brokered, the delegates are no longer tied to their original candidates and are free to vote for whomever they want and all bets are off.

This is when serious wheeling and dealing takes place. Delegates can be persuaded to change their vote and the candidate who originally had the most delegates may lose support and suddenly be cast aside.

The voting Colmes keeps on going until a candidate wins the designated number of delegates. And this can take some time, like it did in 1880.

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: They went through 35 ballots, 35.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Wouldn't that be fun?

CUPP: And then the -- two of the front-runners ended up throwing their support behind a guy who wasn't even running, Garfield.

NARRATOR: Garfield became the dark horse, or unexpected winner.

And some think a similar scenario may be possible this time around.