Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Candidates Vie For Edge in Tight Wisconsin Battle; More Americans Going Back to Work; Down-Ticket Republicans Fearful of Trump Nomination; Clinton, Trump Set to Speak in Wisconsin; Trump's Controversial Week. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired April 02, 2016 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:00:03] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Top of the hour. 4:00 p.m. Eastern. The battle to win the White house is being fought in one state right now. And through this weekend that state is Wisconsin. That is where the next primary will be held.

Voters cast their decision on Tuesday, whatever happens then will not clinch or shut down any of the candidates' campaigns but it matters a lot when it comes to the next really big political prize, that is New York. Taking place in mid April. The New York contest is a pretty clear front-runner from each party right now, that is if you believe the polls. As we know they do not tell the whole story. Not Wisconsin, it is much tighter when you look at the polling on both sides.

Trump is on the defensive after what some are calling his worst week thus far in the campaign. Clinton is today accusing her rival Bernie Sanders of "playing games" saying no to the three days they proposed for debate in New York.

Our Jeremy Diamond is in Rothchild, Wisconsin, that's where Donald Trump is expected to appear any moment. Let's talk about the week that was for Donald Trump. Certainly not picture perfect especially when it comes to taking four seemingly different positions on abortion in the span of a week.

Does that affect the loyal Trump supporters, though? Does that sway Wisconsin?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Well, certainly with the Trump supporters that I've talked to today none of them, I spoke to half a dozen supporters here, none of them saying that the abortion comments that Trump has made this week, you know, the multiple different positions that he's taken on the issue, none of that matters to them. This is kind of what we've seen time and again, we've seen Donald Trump kind of step into the mud, get himself embroiled in controversy by whether it's by saying something very controversial or by you know, changing his position on an issue.

But Trump supporters those who had been with him now for months, some of them even just weeks, once they are with him they are really very loyal and set in. We saw Donald Trump take different positions, you said that he wanted to punish women who get abortions if abortion is outlawed, then said that he would not. We saw yesterday he said that he would not change the laws on abortion to make it illegal, then his spokeswoman saying last night that in fact he would change the laws when he's president.

So a slew of different positions and of course, we also had Donald Trump's campaign manager, (INAUDIBLE) earlier this week charged with allegedly assaulting a reporter, so all of that makes for Donald Trump's what some people are calling Donald Trump's worst week.

HARLOW: Jeremy Diamond with the Trump campaign in Rothschild, Wisconsin, thank you so much. Let's talk about this and the week that was for Trump first as you heard Jeremy say, his campaign manager arrested for misdemeanor battery, then he drew fire for those comments on abortion, sort of back and forth.

The polls have been trailing Ted Cruz in Wisconsin but perhaps some are pointing to as being the most troubling is his disapproval rating among women. Just look at the numbers, this is a recent CNN-ORC poll that finds 73 percent of registered female voters disapprove of the Republican front-runner. That's voter as a whole. Among Republican female voters his unfavorables have climbed from 29 percent up to 39 percent, in just the last few months.

Let's being in our panel again, CNN senior political analyst, advisor to four presidents David Gergen, Jeffrey Lord is with us, Trump supporter, former Reagan White House political director and Van Jones, a democrat, a CNN political commentator and also he previously worked in the Obama White House.

[16:05:02]

Jeffrey, let's talk about the disapproval numbers when you look at them from women, those came before he had to defend his comments on abortion, before he had to deal with the fall-out from his campaign manager's arrest, for grabbing the arm of a female reporter. Are you concerned each as a supporter you concerned about those numbers?

JEFFREY LORD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: No. I'll tell you why, Poppy.

HARLOW: Why?

LORD: When we get to a fall election, and it's Donald Trump or any one for that matter versus Hillary Clinton or any one else, then these things change. They always change. Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter by about 30 points in December of 1979, by November he was president-elect.

Secondly, I find it very interesting, in this last week apparently, Reuters does a tracking poll and Donald Trump in this whole period of controversy that we're talking about here, has gone up steadily, he now leads Ted Cruz, according to Reuters, 45 to 33 percent. And has gone up from where he was on this. So one of the things I would suggest here is that the more coverage he gets like this, there is real antipathy out there towards the media, sort of writ large and when we have these so-called "controversies," my hunch is that they only add to his support. They don't detract from it.

HARLOW: David Gergen, to you. On CBS last night, sort of a precursor to the "Face the Nation" interview airing tomorrow morning, Trump was asked if he thinks abortion amounts to murder. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

Do you think it's murder? Abortion?

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have my opinions on it but I'd rather not comment on it.

UNIDENTIFED MALE: You said you are pro life.

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: I am.

UNIDENTIFED MALE: Abortion is murder?

TRUMP: But I mean I do have my opinions on it. I'd rather - just don't think it's appropriate.

UNIDENTIFED MALE: But you don't disagree with that proposition that it's murder?

TRUMP: What proposition?

UNIDENTIFED MALE: That abortion is murder.

TRUMP: No, I don't disagree.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: David, when you're talking about those numbers that we just showed you among unfavorables, among women, especially when you consider he may face off against a female candidate in the general election, obviously abortion is a big issue to men and women. What does this do to him?

DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIENTIAL ADVISER: Listen. His - his disapproval ratings among all women voters, not just republicans but all has jumped 15 points over the last few months. I don't care how you spin that, that's the wrong direction. Anything close to that would make him totally unelectable in the fall.

I agree with Jeff Lord that yes, he can close that gap some but when you start that far behind it really raises questions, fundamental questions about your candidacy. And I think more importantly, we've had just a string of things. It's no one incident that is causing a lot of second thoughts and I think - I think the tide is turning indeed. I think something is happening, more fundamental than we've seen the entire campaign. It's not just the one event. It's the accumulation of things. So you start out thinking Trump's a fresh voice, tells it like it is,

wow, maybe he can turn this country around. Looks like a turn around CEO. But then you get these negative things starting to bubble up and they get larger and larger. That's what causes voters to move from being strong to being lukewarm to finally saying no, to being really opposed.

And I think a lot of voters are going through that process now. We'll have to see. I think that the Reuters poll is a big outlier. But let's wait and see what happens in Wisconsin. That was a race where Trump was ahead by 10. He's now down by 10. I don't see how you can spin that as a Trump win if he goes down by 10 after being ahead by 10.

HARLOW: I think you sort of think of Wisconsin as sort of Trump land, right, that would be perfectly suited for him.

GERGEN: Absolutely. A lot of white collar voters. He should win that.

HARLOW: The trade bashing, et cetera, and yet you got Cruz ahead. Let me ask you about this, Van, this interview which probably haven't had a chance to read. It just came to my desk with Maureen Dowd of the "New York Times' an extensive interview with Donald Trump. Some of the key points from it are he admitted - he said that if he had to do it over again he wouldn't have retweeted that picture of Heidi Cruz, this week, saying "yes, it was a mistake if I had to do it over again I wouldn't have sent it."

Also, when he was asked if his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, should have called the reporter that he grabbed the arm of, Michelle Fields, and given her a call after the incident et cetera, Trump said "yes, you're right." But from what I understand it wouldn't have mattered. That saying yes, he probably should have given her a call, et cetera. This is not what we're used to hearing from Donald Trump, sort of making these admissions that I could have done stuff a little bit better. What does that tell you, Van?

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It tells me that that he is in a little bit of a panic. Here's the thing. All that is good. I'm glad that he's saying that. I'm glad he's admitting error. But you know, I have children that get to admissions of error within minutes, maybe hours, this is a week plus later for some of this stuff.

[16:10:04]

Part of the thing is when you're president, you have to make good decisions quickly. You got to take - look at the evidence, look at the situation, and you got to respond soberly, you've got to respond effectively and there aren't do-overs a week later.

The problem that you're seeing now is this question of judgment. There is a problem in the Republican Party where they have tended to give people a pass as long as you're mad at the people I'm mad at, I'll give you a pass. That happened with Sarah Palin. What's happened is you create this almost circus wing of the party where anything goes as long as you're mad. I think that the Republican Party may pay a price for giving him a pass too long. It was obvious very early he did not have the temperament to be a president but there was a hope that he would get better. He is going to get the award for the least improved candidate in American history. He hasn't gotten any better over the past six, eight, nine months.

HARLOW: I have to give Jeffrey Lord, Trump's supporter, to respond to that. I mean your response to Van and also what Trump has now said to Maureen Dowd, basically saying yep, wouldn't have done that, could have done that better.

LORD: Well, my friend, Van, is a democrat and I expect him to say exactly what he just said. I mean, look. Donald Trump is a fabulous CEO. And you don't run a company much less build a company like he has without solid temperament and character and good judgment. All of which he will bring to the presidency.

So, I mean, I just think that this is false, this is partisanship. If we're going to go down that road we go down there with Hillary and Benghazi and President Obama and Benghazi and pulling out of Iraq and I mean, we can just do this endlessly. But I just don't think that that's the case. I mean that's just a genuine partisan difference, I think.

HARLOW: Jeffrey Lord, David Gergen, Van Jones, thank you all. Stay with me. A lot more ahead with you three gentlemen. Just getting started this hour.

Coming up, the two front-runners on the trail in the badger state. We'll bring you their comments live. Also, many voters say they are angry, about the economy, angry about the direction this country is headed in. Our Christine Romans breaks down that anger for us. Stay with us, this is CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:15:35]

HARLOW: More Americans are going back to work, Friday's jobs report from the Labor Department shows 215,000 jobs are created in the month of March alone, that is a number driven by large gains in construction, retail and health care. Unemployment ticked up just slightly to five percent from 4.9 percent. But analysts say there is good reason for that.

More Americans are coming off the sidelines, they are looking for work and that means they are officially being counted in the unemployment rate on top of that, home values added 11 percent, in just the last year. The U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 is up 200 percent from seven years ago, not to mention gas is cheap at just about two bucks. But a lot of voters they are very angry and very angry about the state of the economy. They feel like it's not working for them. Why? Christine Romans explains. CHRITINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Poppy, economists, give the American economy a solid B, primary voters give it an F. If there is anything we learned this primary season those voters are angry. This chart really says it all.

The discussion around American kitchen tables is on household income down $3700 since 2007. At $53,657 a family, median household income is back to 1995 levels. Now, it hasn't happened overnight. Both parties have pursued free trade deals, both parties have embraced China into the global economy. Technology and globalization make it easier and cheaper to produce overseas, the American middle class buys cheaper consumer goods but loses millions of jobs to outsourcing.

In 2001, there were 352,600 manufacturing establishments in the U.S. they employed almost 16 million workers. By the year 2013, that number had dwindled to 11.3 million workers in 292,000 factories. Now, American voters feel left behind by a 21st century economy they believe benefits investors and bosses, party leaders, the super rich and status quo politicians.

Essentially, Poppy, their economic self-esteem is in the dumps. But here is a curious wrinkle. When asked about their personal economy roughly six out of 10 primary voters in exit polls say they are holding steady. Six out of 10 holdings steady. It's a remarkable disconnect.

HARLOW: It is indeed, Christine. Thank you so much for that. Let's talk it all over with our panel again. Van Jones is with me, Jeffrey Lord, David Gergen.

David, let's start with you. When you look at how successful Donald Trump has been at tapping into this voter anger over the economy, I think you can't overstate it. I mean he has played it exactly right on that.

GERGEN: He -

HARLOW: Go ahead.

GERGEN: Donald Trump did not create the anger. He exploited this. He has taken advantage of it. He has ridden that wave. Listen. Bill Clinton himself has been saying recently trying to explain this election, 80 percent of people hasn't gotten a pay raise since the great crash.

HARLOW: Right.

GERGEN: Most of the jobs, a study just came out over the last few days, (INAUDIBLE) a colleague of mine, co-authored it. Saying most of the new jobs that have been created are gig jobs like Uber like jobs or they are people going into business for themselves who no longer have a safety net with an employer. They got to look after themselves because they are working on their own as in a freelance capacity. And that has limited how much they can make. Where have the gains gone? There have been gains in this economy but over several years most of those gains have gone to the top. So there are a whole swath of voters, Sanders' voters and the Trump voters who are together saying this isn't working. And we're angry, come on guys, if you're going to run a government let's have equitable distribution and get that growth rate up.

HARLOW: I found it fascinating if you take a look back or May Reston did a fascinating report this week, looking back at some comments that Trump made in the 90s. He told "Playboy" in this 1990 interview, let me pull it up for you, "rich men are less likely to like me but the working man likes me because he knows I worked hard and didn't inherit what I built."

Now, let's be clear, he did inherit money from his father. A million dollar loan. When you look at this, Van Jones, why is it that this billionaire who did inherit a good start at least from his father, is able to hug that anger so well and can he carry it through into a general?

[16:20:00]

JONES: He may be able to. Let's be fair. A million dollars is a lot of money for people like us, but a lot of people get a million dollars and they waste it, they lose it. He was able to take whatever head start he got and he was able to build on that. And people know that.

So a lot of times people want to put him down and say he doesn't know. He's not somebody who inherited all of that money. I think that gives him a certain place to stand when he talks about American opportunity. Also, the pain is real. It is very difficult, I think, for the coastal elites in both parties to get people are sitting on a white hot stove and they can't just sit there. You have a second Sanders surge now, going on.

The democratic party is having the same fits, they just don't have the same colorful stuff going on that Donald Trump brings to it but the same fits because Hillary Clinton can't put Sanders away because he's got a generation in economic pain. And I'm very proud of the president for what he's been able to do but we still have a long way to go and both parties I think have fallen short of meeting the needs of the people.

HARLOW: It's such an interesting point, Charles blow saying to us last hour that Bernie Sanders has become sort of the first Occupy Wall Street candidate, we'll see how that actually plays out when it comes to getting the nomination.

But Jeffrey, to you. No question, Trump has been a successful businessman. I think Van makes a good point. A lot of people waste inheritance or waste a loan.

LORD: Right.

HARLOW: Isn't the art of the deal, though, different from the art of diplomacy?

LORD: No. Not really. What is diplomacy but deal making. When I think back -

HARLOW: It's very different when you're dealing with a public company, wouldn't you say or even a private company and you're dealing with simply dollars and cents and not, for example, always cultural differences, geopolitical issues. Isn't that different?

LORD: Well, two things. First on the economy. Recent Gallup poll among Republicans had 64 percent of Republicans giving Donald Trump the thumbs up on economic issues as opposed to I think 20 percent for Ted Cruz and below that for John Kasich. So he really does have - has made his mark here.

To your point here. I think of President Reagan who was a labor negotiator in his early life as president of the Screen Actors Guild. And as president, of course, they said he wasn't competent to handle the job. As president when he got face-to-face with Mikhail Gorbachev in Iceland, he didn't like the deal, he got up and walked out, literally walked out.

And I still remember the look of displeasure on his face as they were parting. So I think Donald Trump has a similar sense of how to negotiate, how to deal and that is very important in diplomacy.

HARLOW: David Gergen, to you. Let's look at history. Any similarities between what is happening now and the voter anger that another billionaire Ross Perot sort of rode in '92?

GERGEN: There is some similarities. Ross Perot was the last successful populist we had. At one point, he was ahead about six months before the election of 1992, he was actually ahead of Bill Clinton and ahead of the Republicans. He finally went up with 19 percent of the vote. And but he didn't win a single state. That's important to remember.

But I want to go back to this question of diplomacy. And Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan - he did learn a lot about negotiations as Jeffrey said when he was in Hollywood. But the important difference between Reagan and Trump among other things, was Reagan was a governor of the biggest state in the country for eight years before he came to Washington. He learned how to be a good executive. He learned how to work quietly with people across the aisle.

It wasn't blender bust, he was very smart about it. He was very respectful. So when Reagan got to Washington he surprised a lot of people because he was so effective. The California experience of eight years, if Donald Trump had that he would be probably unstoppable right now. But given his lack of experience, the fact he hasn't really looked at the issues that has really weakened his candidacy at a critical moment heading into the Wisconsin primary.

HARLOW: Jeffrey Lord, finally to you, one of the things that arguably has worked most that Trump has put forth is his bashing of free trade deals, right? He called out certain companies, said they shipped jobs overseas, he has taken on NAFTA. He has taken on TP but realistically if he gets in the White House what is he going to do to alter what has become the new reality, the new norm in not only America but the world that free trade exists. You think - is he really going to reverse all that?

LORD: Well, he is a free trader, he is a free trader. What he is saying is we just have to make better deals which sounds I think, if you're the one like the famous video that went viral there over the Carrier air conditioning people, 1400 of them or whatever number it was being gathered together, being told that their jobs were being shipped to Mexico, I mean those kind of folks exactly are listening to his message very receptively.

[16:25:02]

I'm sure they are all for free trade but if they feel the deals have been done inartfully to underscore it, they are not happy with it. I think he has tapped into that a lot. This is something, frankly, he has been saying for years.

HARLOW: You're talking about the company Carrier in Indiana, but what is he saying he is going to reverse what's on the table?

LORD: Yes, what he's clearly saying is that the deals that our government has negotiated have been terrible ones. One of the problems he points out is the people who do the negotiations are politicians, that they don't have a lot of business experience. They don't deal with these kind of issues. They get political appointments, they get the nice title but they don't really know what they are doing. And I think that kind of criticism you know, strikes home with a lot of these people.

HARLOW: But couldn't you argue that a business man sitting at the table would look at Carrier, the example you brought up and say these folks that were making up to $22 an hour really good paying manufacturing jobs, important jobs, those jobs, the ones that are being sent to Mexico to folks that are going to make $19 a day is smart if you are just looking through a business lens. Wouldn't Donald Trump perhaps want to argue that side of it?

LORD: Sure. I mean, I'm sure he could. But you know, one of the things that I think has happened here. I mean I'm your basic free trader. A Reaganite, if you will, a Reaganite (INAUDIBLE) on this kind of thing. But I do think that one of the things that's happening here is that the theory of it all is coming hard up against the practice of it all. And the people on the south end of the practice are not very happy and they are making their displeasure with this known.

I think that makes it incumbent on the people who have the theory to perhaps go back over this again and see what's being done that's not working so well.

HARLOW: Let me give Van, jump in here. How does Hillary Clinton exploit this to her benefit?

JONES: Well, I mean, what's interesting is you don't actually hear anybody, either party, Cruz, a little bit, defending any of the free trade stuff. You can make a case and say listen, we did lose some jobs but everybody's able to save money, you go to Walmart, if you had Trump's way you might pay 10, 20 times more in Walmart. Do you want that?

What's very interesting is that the bipartisan elite consensus for the trade has collapsed to the point that even a Hillary Clinton is not out there aggressively making the case. I think that is - that shows you that something big has changed in the country on this issue. Trump has his take, Sanders has his take but even Hillary Clinton is not out there defending this stuff any more.

HARLOW: I got to get a break in.

David Gergen -

GERGEN: Can I say something here?

HARLOW: Thirty seconds.

GERGEN: Very brief. Listen. Economists will tell you look, none of the candidates has got this right on trade. For Hillary Clinton to come out after praising it for so long, the transpacific partnership and now to come out against it, is one thing. Donald Trump wants to throw a massive tariffs against China, against Mexico and against others.

HARLOW: Thirty five percent.

GERGEN: Barrons, which is an important business application, saying that it would be devastating for the economy. We'll have a devastating trade war.

HARLOW: HPC Meg Whitman said the same thing. It would drive the country into a recession. We'll see, it would be a dramatic change in policy. Thank you so much. David Gergen, Jeffrey Lord, Van Jones, stay with me. Go to get a quick break.

We're going to talk next about some House Republicans quickly backing away from Donald Trump because they believe he may cost the party control of the House. Next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:32:17] HARLOW: Welcome back. Donald Trump is making some House Republicans very nervous. They worry if Trump does become their party's nominee, the GOP could lose control of the House.

Our Senior Political Reporter Manu Raju on the story.

Hi, Manu.

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Hey, Poppy. After the Republicans took back the House in the 2010 elections, GOP leaders vow to build a long and lasting majority. Something that appeared untouchable after the Republicans padded their numbers in the 2014 midterms. But now, some in the party establishment fear that it could all be washed away, thanks to no small part to Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CARLOS CURBELO, FLORIDA CONGRESSMAN: Today in support.

RAJU: Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo of Florida is in danger of losing his job. And that could be one reason why he wants nothing to do with Donald Trump.

CURBELO: My community knows that I have rejected a lot of what Mr. Trump has said, and I think everyone should for that matter.

RAJU: Trump was already making a lot of House Republicans nervous. But in the aftermath of the blunt billionaire's latest comments, that women should be prosecuted if abortions were outlawed, some strategies in both parties believe a Trump nomination could lead to something once viewed as impossible.

Democrats retaking the House in November. Some vulnerable Republicans are quickly abandoning the GOP front-runner.

REP. ROBERT DOLD, (R) ILLINOIS: I've said before I'll say it again, this is not someone I support. For me it's personal.

RAJU: Democrats need to pick up 30 House seats to overcome the largest Republican majority in nearly 70 years. Republican leaders hope they can stem their losses, but House races are often dictated by the national mood. And with Trump's unruly candidacy, Democrats believe their chances are improving by the day.

REP. BEN RAY LUJAN, (D) NEW MEXICO: Donald Trump is not good for the GOP down ballot. This is now the party of Trump and House Republicans are dealing with that everyday.

RAJU: And not today, it was a Democrat hoping to oust Curbelo in his Miami area district. She's trying to tie Curbelo to Trump's harsh words about Mexican immigrants.

ANNETTE TADDEO, CANDIDATE FOR U.S. HOUSE FLORIDA DISTRICT 26: Many of them that have been eligible to become citizens are becoming citizens so they can vote, so I'm seeing a lot of enthusiasm for our race.

RAJU: Tom Davis, a former House GOP campaign chairman and John Kasich supporter, thinks the party could lose at least 20 seats if Trump is the nominee.

TOM DAVIS, FORMER GOP CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: I think that's a stretch, but it's something you have to worry about if the Trump campaign keeps deteriorating in some of these areas.

RAJU: Behind the scenes, House Speaker Paul Ryan is moving aggressively telling his members to focus on his party's achievements. Publicly, he says he's confident.

REP. PAUL RYAN (R-WI), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: I'm not concerned about the House flipping because we are in control of our own actions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump.

RAJU: Trump supporters on Capitol Hill say Republicans should be embracing the real estate mogul, instead of running away from him.

[16:35:00] REP. CHRIS COLLINS, (R) NEW YORK: People get behind a winner, which is Mr. Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: I can tell you, Poppy, a lot of House Republicans are nervous about Trump but some Senate Republicans are open to running with him and that includes both Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, is actually in a very tough Senate race and Richard Burr of North Carolina. Both of them told me that they believe Trump's ability to attract new voters could actually be good for their own Senate races.

And a lot of Senate Republicans in particular are worried about Ted Cruz, believing his own politics won't play well in swing states. Plus, many told me that they want Cruz to repair relations with his colleagues before they even consider getting behind him. So really just a consequential debate among Republicans on Capitol Hill, but how to handle their two leading candidates right now for president.

Poppy.

HARLOW: Fascinating look, Manu. Thank you so much.

All right. Coming up next, the two front-runners on the trail in the Badger State today, they're about to speak live. We're talking about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But new polls show they're slipping in the state. We'll bring you their remarks live.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: All right. If Republican front-runner Donald Trump is not able to clinch the delegates needed before this summer's convention, it could mean trouble for the Trump campaign.

Our Tom Foreman is in the virtual room to tell us what might happen if the GOP does enter into an open convention.

Hi, Tom.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Poppy. There is a reason they call it a floor fight if no candidate can get that magic number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination before the convention begins.

Now, let's look at the delegate count right now. Donald Trump is the closest, but if he doesn't get that number before the convention starts, or let's say you actually get to the convention and you have a floor full of people out here who have Trump signs, but on the first vote, he does not get enough to get the nominations for all the way, well then we have a real problem because a floor fight is underway at that point.

[16:40:00] Why? Because after the first vote, many of these delegates become unbound. That means they can vote for whomever they wish, not necessarily the person chosen by the people back in their state. So people who are holding Trump signs may suddenly be holding Cruz signs or maybe Kasich signs or maybe signs for somebody else altogether.

Every state has its own rules, the convention will have its own rules when it starts and it won't always be clear which rules override other rules. And you can bet all three of those campaigns will be doing all they can to twist arms out here, to bend the rules and to push the referees to try to get an advantage. And it could get very bitter and very nasty, but there is a reason the party does not want that to happen. Overwhelming reason.

Look at this from the Pew Research Center. These are the numbers. In the Republican Party, if the nominee is chosen on the first ballot, 64 percent of the time that nominee will go on to win the White House. Second ballot or later, only 50 percent of the time. And these numbers, by the way, are even worse for the Democratic Party. There is a real cost to be paid by a party that goes into its convention undecided.

Poppy.

HARLOW: Tom, thank you so much for that fascinating look. We are waiting to hear from Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. They're set to speak live at any moment in Wisconsin.

First though, changing gears, when a traumatic back surgery robbed a young girl of her normal childhood, she refused to give in. It is today's turning point and Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes a look at how she transformed her pain into a big will to win.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: This look is said to intimidate Jeanette Lee's opponents. But for this World Champion Pool player known as, "The Black Widow", there is more than meets the eye.

JEANETTE LEE, "THE BLACK WIDOW," CHAMPION POOL PLAYER: A common misperception about why I looked the way I do is to look intimidating. But it's because my spine doesn't curve up.

GUPTA: Jeanette was diagnosed with scoliosis at 12-years-old.

LEE: We went to this doctor. I think two days later, I'm having surgery and I woke up to absolute hell. I just remember being so in so much pain. After surgery, I grew over three inches.

GUPTA: Her traumatic experience, including having to wear a brace in school, shattered her confidence.

LEE: I've really felt broken.

GUPTA: Until she discovered pool.

LEE: I really believe it healed me. GUPTA: Despite intense back pain, she practiced as much as 30 hours at a time.

LEE: It was my escape. I turned pro when I was 21. I was number one in the world at 23.

GUPTA: Jeanette has undergone more than 10 neck and back operations, developing multiple joint-related conditions, but she refuses to give in. She's a mother of six, a successful businesswoman and a motivational speaker.

LEE: I live every day knowing that there's nothing I can do that I should take for granted because it could be gone tomorrow.

GUPTA: Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN reporting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:46:40] HARLOW: A series of unexpected controversies rocking Donald Trump's campaign this week. And you're looking at live pictures of a -- the camera's getting adjusted waiting for him to speak there in Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton also set to speak live this hour in Eau Claire. We'll bring you those events when they happen.

But back to Trump and the week that was. For any other candidates, this would be detrimental. But not the case that was for the Republican front-runner, Donald Trump.

Our Dana Bash has more.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICALCORRESPONDENT: When all else fails for Donald Trump, he tries to change the subject.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ted Cruz was my roommate. I did not like him at all at in college.

BASH: Slamming Ted Cruz in a new Instagram video after one of the billionaire front-runner's worst weeks since the campaign began, causing a bipartisan firestorm with these comments, when asked if women should be punished for having an abortion if it became illegal.

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The answer is that there has to be some form of punishment.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: For the woman?

TRUMP: Yeah. There has to be some form.

BASH: That, Trump recanted within hours and later added this.

TRUMP: It could mean that I misspoke, but this was a long time convoluted subject. BASH: But he has not taken back what he said at CNN's town hall advocating for more nuclear weapons in Asia.

TRUMP: At some point, we have to say, "You know what, we're better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea."

BASH: Now, Trump is refusing to rule out using nuclear weapons in Europe.

TRUMP: Europe's a big place. The last person to use nuclear would be Donald Trump. That's the way I feel. I think it is a horrible thing. The thought of it is horrible. But I don't want to take anything off the table.

BASH: Trump's rivals continue to blast him.

SEN. TED CRUZ, (R-TX) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: ... that nominating Donald Trump would be a train wreck. And that's not fair to the train wrecks.

GOV. JOHN KASICH, (R-OH) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: See, the problem for him with town halls is he actually has to answer questions in a specific way not to

BASH: Kasich also went after Ted Cruz for having a thin leadership record.

KASICH: His record is shutting down the government and making everybody he works with upset.

BASH: As Trump sees his unfavorable ratings rise and support among women fall, he is quick to point out that he is still the front-runner by a long shot and that even if he arrives at the GOP convention in July without winning the nomination, if he is close, it should be him.

TRUMP: I already think that whoever has that kind of an advantage should get it.

BASH: But the first time politician is also learning that seizing the Republican nomination takes more than just winning contests, it takes winning over delegates in some states where rules vary.

Sources tells CNN that educating Trump about the complicated delegate process was the subject of Trump's meeting this week with Republican Party Chair Reince Priebus at RNC headquarters in Washington.

REINCE PRIEBUS, REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIR: Very, actually, a terrific meeting, I think. And it's really a unity meeting.

BASH: CNN is told that Priebus used the meeting to asked Trump to ease up on trashing the RNC as Trump did this week at CNN's town hall.

TRUMP: I've been treated very unfairly. I'll give you an example ...

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Unfairly, by whom?

TRUMP: I think by basically the RNC, the Republican Party.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Dana Bash reporting. Thank you, Dana.

My political panel debate is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:53:38] HARLOW: Did Donald Trump have the worst week ever for his campaign, or can nothing really turn his loyal fans away?

My panel is back with me. David Gergen, Jeffrey Lord, Van Jones.

All right. Jeffrey, to you first. The Trump supporter, you stood by him through all the comments that people said, "Oh this is it, this is it, this is it." Was this though, the worst week yet for your guy?

LORD: The thing is, Poppy, I mean, I've been around the circus for a long time, and candidates have bad moments, they have bad times. And if they're good, they'll eventually come out of it.

I think Donald Trump is pretty good at this. I think he's getting better and I think he certainly will come out of this. Has he had a difficult time, yes, but as I say, the Reuters tracking poll is very interesting because it happened to track exactly with the same time period and yet his numbers went up.

So, I just really don't -- I really don't see this. And I'll say it is, I would much rather have a bad week like this than be told that I have to have a one on one with the director of the FBI, which is Hillary Clinton's situation.

HARLOW: David Gergen, to you, worst week after the campaign? Do the needle moving?

GERGEN: And he had a no good horrible week. And with all due respect to Jeffrey, the way the numbers have moved against him in Wisconsin does suggest heavily and it's had an impact.

[16:55:00] But let's be clear, he can recover. As New York is coming up after Wisconsin, and there he's got a very -- he's had a very sizable lead, he has Pennsylvania right around then, you know. So, there's some states that have probably are not Cruz country.

But, I think he has to change, you know, and we keep looking for this. There have been moments where he looks like he's been changing and more financial to a more presidential candidate, you know, looking more like a president, winning people back. I think people are still would like him to -- you know, there are a lot of people out there would like to see him succeed, but they're having serious, serious doubts. And the deeper the hole, the harder it is to climb it out. The first thing you've got to do, of course, the first root (ph) of holes is stop digging.

HARLOW: Van Jones, what say you as a Democrat to what Jeffrey Lord said about Hillary Clinton's e-mails and Benghazi and investigation? And he says he'd rather be in Trump's shoes.

JONES: Well, I mean, well, first of all, the hole that he digs, as Mr. Gergen was saying, he did with his mouth, he just keeps digging deeper and deeper.

I think we're in a situation where for a lot of people, the emperor has no clothes. We're at that moment where suddenly people look at this guy and they -- "Am I looking at what I'm seeing? Am I seeing what I'm looking at? Is this guy literally just up here making it up as he goes along?" And I think that has really cost him with people who were beginning to move.

Listen, Newt Gingrich, who's, you know, a friend of mine and somebody I admire was out there really trying to make the case for Donald Trump. He was really out there trying to prepare the party to accept him. Newt, over the past week, has come out and said harsher stuff than I have said about Donald Trump.

HARLOW: All right. I got to leave it

JONES: So I think that's a problem for him.

HARLOW: I got to leave it there. Van Jones, David Gergen, Jeffrey Lord, thank you all. A quick break.

Up next, we're waiting for the two front-runners in both parties to speak live in Wisconsin.

Stay with us. We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)