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Wisconsin Primary; Religious Freedom Bill. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired April 05, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:00:30] PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Pamela Brown, in today for Brooke Baldwin on this busy Tuesday.

Right now, Wisconsin primary voters are weighing in on who should be the nation's next president. And what they decide could reshape the race. Wisconsin might possibly buck national trends as the frontrunners in both parties are in a fight to first place. We'll get to the Democrats in just a moment. But first to the Republican side. Forty-two critical delegates are up for grabs and if Senator Cruz wins Wisconsin, Donald Trump's path to the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination will get much tougher. Today Trump, in a switch from his usual ways, is downplaying local polls.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And the polls are busy, huh?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They are busy.

TRUMP: We could have a big surprise tonight, folks, big surprise. It feels like South Carolina. This feels like New Hampshire.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you so much.

TRUMP: I think you're going to have a big, big voter turnout. You're going to have a great surprise today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: All right, let's get to the voters now. CNN's Chris Frates is in Green Bay, but we begin with CNN national correspondent Jason Carroll, live in Brookfield, Wisconsin.

Jason, set the scene for us.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we've seen a steady stream of folks coming in here to this particular polling spot. You can see there's a few people still in line here, Pam, from earlier today. We saw much, much - much, much more than that. But we're seeing somewhat of a lull here. That's expected. It is the lunch hour, past the lunch hour. Earlier on, much more people here.

That machine there that you see there in the center of the room, that is the machine that's tabulating all the votes that's coming in. We'll be sending it back to the county when polls close at 8:00 tonight.

They are expecting record turnout here, as I'm sure you've heard. The Trump camp feels as though the record turnout is going to work in his favor. In terms of some numbers here, just to give you some idea, 672 people had come in here, casted their votes by 11:00 a.m. Thirty-five hundred absentee ballots received here already just at this one particular location. In terms of record turnout, experts are expecting 40 percent of registered voters to turn out. That would equal some 1.75 million people.

Trump feels as though - the Trump camp feels as though that record turnout's going to work in his favor, but, you know, I've been speaking to some voters out here and there's one thing that I think that he has - he's going to have a problem with, and this is just anecdotally but, you know, in speaking to two women who were out here, both of them at one point were considering Trump, sort of going between Trump and Cruz. But after that disastrous week last week, both of these women deciding to cast their vote for Cruz as opposed to Trump.

But as you heard Trump there in that sound bite in that interview, he was telling people not just there in that interview, but also throughout the weekend, expect a surprise here in the state. He says despite the polls showing him running behind Ted Cruz, he says look for that surprise he said just like we saw in South - in South Carolina and in New Hampshire, Pam.

BROWN: Interesting, though, what those female voters told you. If Trump does lose, a lot of people will be asking if that's because of all the controversy surrounding him recently.

Jason Carroll, interesting perspective there, thank you very much.

And let's turn to the Democratic side now. Bernie Sanders says if he wins in Wisconsin tonight and then goes on to take Hillary Clinton's home turf in New York, that's it, game over, he wins the White House. Let's go live now to Chris Frates, who is out with voters in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

So, Chris, right now, at least in Wisconsin, it's looking like anyone's game. What are voters telling you?

CHRIS FRATES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's exactly right, the polling out here does shows Bernie Sanders a little bit ahead. And it's interesting because both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have said if there's high turnout today, which by all accounts it looks like there will be, that they win. And I can tell you here in Green Bay they are seeing that same thing happening here at this polling place that we're getting record turnout. Already 500 people have come through these doors since this polling place opened at 5:00 a.m. Usually they see about 1,600 people here at this location. They expect more than that today.

And that's good news for both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton if their predictions are right. But, of course, Bernie Sanders, he needs to win by a big margin. He's trying to claim as many of those 86 delegates as he can. Hillary Clinton all week long has been downplaying expectations here in Wisconsin, you know, making the case that, you know, she lost this state to then Senator Barack Obama in 2008 by double digits. You know, her campaign also pointing out that this is a majority white state where Bernie Sanders tends to do better.

And we saw Hillary Clinton already starting to campaign in New York, 250 delegates that are available there. That's a huge number, second only to California. And Bernie Sanders needs a big upset there in order to close that deficit. So we'll see if he gets the bounce he's looking for tonight in Wisconsin, Pam, and then takes it all to the empire state.

[14:05:12] BROWN: Yes, a lot of sides - both of them have a lot to lose today. Thanks so much, Chris Frates, appreciate it.

And let's dig in now, why Wisconsin matters so much. I have with me, CNN national political reporter Maeve Reston, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, and she's also the head of The Polling Company and has done polling and analysis for a pro-Cruz super PAC, also Lou Gargiulo, co-chair of the Donald Trump campaign in Rockingham County, New Hampshire.

Thank you all for coming on with us. So much to discuss today with the Wisconsin primary.

Maeve, to you. Why is Wisconsin such a critical primary?

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, it's really been fascinating on both sides of the race because this ends up being a very important night for Ted Cruz and for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. This - Wisconsin was the place where the anti-Trump movement wanted to really be able to stop him. They thought that if they could get here, that tomorrow morning, if Ted Cruz has a big night, then we will clearly be talking about an open convention.

We know that Ted Cruz has a really good organization in Wisconsin. He's obviously got a very strong organization across the country. He's been working those delegates. So it could be a big blow to Donald Trump's momentum tonight, or we could see a surprise as he is predicting when he was talking to voters this morning.

At the same time, on the Sanders' side, this is really the place where Sanders needs to have a lot of momentum so he can go zooming into those big primary states coming up, New York, New Jersey, Oregon. Otherwise, you know, if he does not have momentum coming off tonight, the math just looks so impossible for him that this race really could start to wind down if he doesn't have a good night tonight.

BROWN: Yes, it's not just about delegates, it's about momentum in a lot of ways for these campaigns.

Lou, if Trump does lose tonight, is an open convention a definite? How does he rebound if he loses?

LOU GARGIULO, TRUMP CAMPAIGN CO-CHAIR IN ROCKINGHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE: I don't think an open convention is a definite. If you look at his strength, his strength is going to be in New York, New Jersey, California. I think there is certainly a lot of large states with a lot of delegate count that will propel him to that 1,237, or very close to the 1,237.

I think tonight's a make or break for Ted Cruz. If Cruz doesn't do well or only wins marginally, I don't think he gets the momentum necessary. And going into the northeast, that's not a good area for him. It hasn't been right along. And I think you'll see a complete turnaround in the Trump campaign going into New York, where he picks up a very large number of delegates out of that particular race.

BROWN: Kellyanne, do you agree with that, is this make or break for Ted Cruz? What happens if Trump does win? What would that mean for Cruz?

KELLYANNE CONWAY, CEO & PRESIDENT, THE POLLING COMPANY: Well, Trump's not going to win. All the credible polls say that this will be a big night for Ted Cruz. He -

BROWN: But it's an open primary, so anything could happen.

CONWAY: (INAUDIBLE). And we know in politics, and especially this year, no question, anything could happen. But, look, in Cruz world we've been hearing since the first vote was cast in the Iowa caucuses months ago that the following state fill in the blank is make or break for Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, he's won ten states. He'll won diverse states like from Maine to Texas. He'll win Wisconsin tonight. And, really, if you look at Wisconsin, why is the sitting governor of Ohio not even competing there? He's been in New York all week, John Kasich. Why is Donald Trump, whose message really picked up where Governor Scott Walker left off, talking to working class voters, a very white state, very Catholic state, two groups that Donald Trump has done very well with all primary long, why is Ted Cruz coming in first and not third?

So we - we're not - what will happen also after tonight is you - the answer to your question is absolutely, yes. It's more likely we will have an open, contested convention in Cleveland. What does that mean? That means that Cruz has to do three things. One, keep aggravating delegates in the states that remain. Two, do what he did this past weekend, which is reach into states that have already voted and get those delegates whore unbound to go for him, or in places like Colorado and North Dakota, just after this - just over this weekend. In convention situations, he got 18 of the 25 awarded in North Dakota and he got the first six awarded in Colorado so you have to have an infrastructure and a ground game and you can't invent that overnight.

BROWN: I want to go to you, Lou, because we heard from our Jason Carroll, he talked to some female voters who said they were torn between Cruz and Trump, they ultimately are going for Cruz, though, because of this controversy surrounding Trump. How much does that concern you, Lou, that this recent controversy could really impact him in Wisconsin?

GARGIULO: I think all controversies concern me, but I think that there are going to be missteps on both sides with all of the candidates. And I think it goes into the - into the process. And I think it will be forgotten in another few days as we move on out of Wisconsin. I think Trump will do well in Wisconsin tonight and I think moving in to the northeast, I think he will have a very strong showing. And I think it will be forgotten in another few days as we move on out of Wisconsin. I think Trump will do well in Wisconsin tonight. And I think moving into the northeast I think he will have a very strong showing. And I think for Cruz tonight, this is a huge, huge election for him.

[14:10:20] BROWN: Yes.

GARGIULO: If he doesn't win tonight, clearly I think he's going to have a problem. If he does, it keeps him competitive and I think he'll remain in strong and it will go to the end. And I think that's where - I don't think this is going to end until June.

BROWN: No. Well, but you - you make a good point, the stakes are very high for both Cruz and Trump and also on the Democratic side. I want to go to some sound from President Obama today. He talked about how the Republican race for president has impacted foreign relations. Let's take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think that I've been very clear earlier that I am getting questions constantly from foreign leaders about some of the wackier suggestions that are being made. I do have to emphasize that it's not just Mr. Trump's proposals. I mean you're also hearing concerns about Mr. Cruz's proposals, which in some ways are just as draconian when it comes to immigration, for example.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Notable that the president did not mention Ohio Governor John Kasich. Kellyanne, first, your reaction to what the president said, do you agree?

CONWAY: No, the president also didn't mention any of the foreign leaders or any of the plans that so-called rankle him. I think president, as pundit, is never a good look. And if his foreign policy was so great, then Hillary Clinton, his secretary of state, is running against a socialist who wants to disengage from the entire world militarily, would be running away with it and she's not. She's losing to Kasich and to Cruz in most polls and she's struggling to even win a state like Wisconsin. She - after tonight she will have lost six of the last seven contests.

So I think that's really unfair, particularly when this president did the wave in Cuba, went and tangoed in Argentina while Brussels was burning and then said on that Wednesday from a different country, said on that Wednesday, well, we have a message for ISIS, you're not getting strong, you're getting weaker after 30-some people died. So I think he has to own his own foreign policy. He's been commander in chief for seven years. And to blame candidates rather than the current commander in chief without specificity is really disappointing.

BROWN: Maeve, before we wrap this up, I want to go to you for final thoughts because something we haven't really talked about is just the fact that this isn't a winner take all primary. It's crucial. It could be a turning point in this race. It's not winner take all. So, hypothetically, John Kasich could actually be a player in the primary in terms of taking delegates away, right? Lay it out for us.

RESTON: Well, that's going to be the most fascinating thing to watch tonight because the rules are so complex in Wisconsin. So you could see Ted Cruz scooping up a lot of delegates. Donald Trump scooping up just a few delegates. And then, you know, having sort of a mixed result as we head into these bigger contests going forward. But I do think that President Obama's comments today were really sort of a gift to Donald Trump because it started - and maybe even to Ted Cruz. It starts yet another robust policy debate as we head into these contests. Obviously Donald Trump has won over a lot of voters with his immigration proposals, but President Obama, today, was saying these proposals are impractical and I'm sure that Donald Trump wants to talk about that as opposed to his very difficult week last week. So a very smart tactical move for Trump to be really highlighting that position right now.

BROWN: Yes, we'll see if it galvanizes his supporters. Thanks so much. Maeve, Kellyanne, and Lou, we appreciate it.

CONWAY: Thanks.

GARGIULO: Thank you, Pam.

BROWN: And just ahead on this Tuesday, Bernie Sanders says if he wins tonight and on Hillary Clinton's home turf, he wins the White House. So is he on to something?

Plus, actor Tim Robbins, who's stumping for Sanders, is raising some eyebrows for comments he made about Hillary Clinton. How can the campaigns control their celebrities?

And more on our breaking news, another state in the south dealing with backlash after Mississippi's governor just signed a new law that critics say discriminates. Details just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:18:24] BROWN: The presidential front-runners on both sides are finding Wisconsin a tougher sell. That's especially true on the Republican side. Wisconsin voters have been slow to warm up to Donald Trump and his fiery rhetoric. Part of it may have to do with former presidential candidate and current Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Trump has been sharply critical of Walker, who dropped out of the presidential race early on and endorsed Senator Ted Cruz, but he still remains popular with many Republicans in his home state.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN SCHULTZE, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I don't think he's appealed to the Walker supporters. There's a very strong Walker base in the state of Wisconsin. TIM FELSKI, WISCONSIN BUS OPERATOR: I think the voters are more well

informed here. I think he doesn't - he doesn't play real, real strong with us because we're not - we're not as susceptible to his wild man ways, his ruckus - you know, rhetoric and things of that nature.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So let's talk about this with someone who knows Wisconsin politics well, John Nichols, a national affairs correspondent for "The Nation" and associate editor for "The Capitol Times," also a Wisconsin native.

Good to see you, John.

JOHN NICHOLS, NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, "THE NATION": It is great to be with you.

BROWN: So I'm curious, given the governor's popularity in the state we were just talking about, is Trump's criticism of the governor going to play a factor at all, do you think?

NICHOLS: Yes, it is, and it plays two factors. Number one, in the Milwaukee suburbs, where you have the highest Republican turnout in the state and also where that turnout is sometimes so big the numbers of voters so large, that it can really shift a statewide result. Scott Walker's quite popular. He used to represent that area in the legislature. He was Milwaukee county executive and so he - he's very popular in the suburbs of Milwaukee. And so going after him in that area I think definitely doesn't help Mr. Trump much at all.

[14:20:14] However, remember, Wisconsin has the most open primary in the country. You can look down that list, you can choose to vote for a Democrat or a Republican. It's very, very easy. And so going after Walker may help Donald Trump to get some independent and swing voters, especially in the northern and western parts of the state, so it cuts both ways.

BROWN: Perhaps that's what he's banking on then.

NICHOLS: Yes.

BROWN: Explain to us, if you would, John, how John Kasich could finish third tonight but still get more delegates then second place. I think a lot of us find that confusing.

NICHOLS: Well, we try to make it as complicated as possible and we are -

BROWN: Well, you're doing a good job of it.

NICHOLS: Thank you. Wisconsin is a winner take most state. So if you win statewide, even by one vote, you get, you know, about 18 delegates. There's some floaters in there, but basically you get 18 delegates. However, if you win all the congressional districts, you get 24 delegates. Now, this is where it gets interesting. Each congressional district, if you win it, even by a vote, you get all of its delegates. Each district has three delegates. So John Kasich could well win the Madison area, which is - even its Republicans are relatively more moderate. And he could also potentially, this is a tough one, he could win perhaps in the western part of the state, along the Mississippi River, a traditionally more moderate Republican area. If he were to win both of those, it is theoretically possible he could equal Donald Trump in delegates out of the state.

BROWN: Very interesting. So Donald Trump, despite what the polls say, you know, he's saying expect a surprise tonight, that the polls are basically wrong, he's going to end up winning. What are you expecting?

NICHOLS: Well, it's always a bad game to be a pundit on election day, isn't it, because people might remember what you say. But my sense is that Donald Trump has closed the gap, not all the way to get a win, but I think he has - he's worked very hard the last three days. He's made a lot of stops around the state. And they've been smart stops. He has gone to northwestern Wisconsin, the town of - city of Superior, to Green Bay, to other towns that are kind of on the periphery of the media markets but are in key congressional districts. So my sense is that Trump has perhaps caught up a bit.

BROWN: Just very quickly, we were just talking about how some of the voters have told our reporters on the ground there, they are now favoring Cruz in the wake of what Donald Trump has said about women, other controversies. What insight can you share about how those controversies are impacting Wisconsin voters?

NICHOLS: They have a big impact and that is Donald Trump's biggest problem in Wisconsin. It was his problem even before things heated up. He always polled weaker here than other places. And I think the bottom line is that Wisconsin, whether you're liberal, conservative, Democrat, Republican, libertarian or green, you tend to be pretty nice. You try to at least, you know, be a little bit temperate in your style and I think he has always been a poor style for Wisconsin.

BROWN: Very interesting. I will say, everyone I've ever met from Wisconsin has been very nice, including you, John Nichols, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

NICHOLS: Thank you.

BROWN: And up next on the NEWSROOM, Bernie Sanders says if he wins tonight in Hillary Clinton's home state, bam, he is in the White House. We're going to discuss both sides.

Plus, critics going after actor Tim Robbins for his remarks on Hillary Clinton. We'll speak live with someone who had to control celebrities during President Obama's campaign.

Our special coverage continues in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:28:12] BROWN: Breaking news out of Mississippi. The governor there has just signed a so-called religious freedom bill into law. This allows businesses and government agencies to deny services to gays and lesbians because of their own religious beliefs. One state lawmaker calling it the most hateful bill he's seen in 33 years. And this comes on the heels of a similar law just passed days ago in North Carolina.

I want to bring in our panel about this. Brad Woodhouse, Hillary Clinton supporter and former communications director for the DNC, and Nomiki Konst, Bernie Sanders supporter and Democratic strategist, as well as executive director of the Accountability Project.

Thank you both for coming on. We do appreciate it.

BRAD WOODHOUSE, HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTER: Thank you.

NOMIKI KONST, BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTER: Hi.

BROWN: Nomiki, first to you. Do you think that Democrats are addressing this issue enough? As I said, a similar law was passed in North Carolina and now in Mississippi. Do you think that this is being discussed enough?

KONST: I think, you know, as elections - as happens in elections, we get obsessed with the horse race. But if you look under the surface, if you look online, there has been a very strong movement. There have been plenty of petitions sent around by progressives across the country urging companies to pull out of these states who have passed these laws because, let's just be honest here, it's legitimizing, it's legalizing discrimination at the opinion of the lawmakers of that state and at the opinion and choice of the private entities, owners, right? So it's a legalized form of discrimination and that's something that I think hurts Democrats if we don't take this narrative nationally. It hurt us in down ballot races.

So, yes, it's important to have a Democrat on the ticket. But it's also important to have a Democrat on the ticket who can turn out record number of voters so that the lower races - you know, these are the issues that affect those down ballot races, so that they are turning out and winning as well.

[14:30:00] BROWN: Brad, what do you think?

WOODHOUSE: Well, look, I think that - I think these laws are deplorable. I mean they are state-sponsored discrimination. Look, I think Democrats and progressives have done a great deal to highlight these issues.