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What Happens in Contested Convention; Trump, Cruz Strategies to Get Delegates; Clinton, Sanders Look Towards Pennsylvania, New York; Obama to Scale Up ISIS Fight. Aired 1:30-2p ET

Aired April 06, 2016 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:31:36] WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: We are getting in a new Monmouth poll of Republican voters. Donald Trump way ahead in this Monmouth poll with 52 percent among likely Republican voters in the New York state primary. That's April 19th, 13 days from now. John Kasich, the Ohio governor, is in second place in New York among Republicans, 25 percent. Cruz in third with 17 percent. Remember, this is a closed primary New York State, only registered Republicans can vote. That 52 percent number very significant. New York state, if you get more than 50 percent of the vote, you get all 95 delegates. That would be a huge bonanza is Donald Trump could maintain the majority you see there, 52 percent. That's a significant number. 13 days is a long time to go between now and the New York state primary. Those numbers just coming in from the Monmouth University poll.

In the Republican race for president, once again, Ted Cruz is getting ready to answer reporters' questions in New York. We will have live coverage of that once he shows up with the microphone. He is clearly savoring his big win over Donald Trump in the Wisconsin primary. Cruz beat Trump by 48 percent to 35 percent, a 13-point advantage.

His victory moves the Republican Party closer to a contested convention in July.

For more on what that means let's bring in CNN's Tom Foreman.

Tom, walk us through what happens in a contested convention.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, these are the latest delegate numbers we have right now. They are all chasing that number. If anyone can get to that before the convention, it's a done deal. That's the nominee. But if not, then you can come to the situation where people have to vote on the floor as to who they want to support, and that could be a different equation where there are people who serve as delegates could make a big difference, Wolf.

Let's talk about how it works by looking at Tennessee for starters. This is 58 delegates chosen by the people of Tennessee. If you divide them based on the popular vote, Trump would get 33 delegates, Cruz 16, Rubio would get nine. By the rules in that state -- and every state has its own rules -- they must vote way for the first two ballots on the floor here if nobody has reached the magic number. But here's the tricky part. That little number, that note up there that says 14 are chosen by the state committee. The Cruz campaign has been good about trying to gets of own people into the group of delegates. Even some holding Trump signs here and have to vote for Trump might actually support Cruz. If you go from this, past a second vote, suddenly, you can see this delegation change and Donald Trump could lose a state he had won.

Let's look at Louisiana as another example. In Louisiana, we have 46 delegates. Pretty evenly split. Trump won 18 and Cruz won 18 of them, Marco Rubio won five and five are uncommitted. Right away we have 10 people over here. We don't know what they will do. But after the first vote, under Louisiana rules, all of these people become unbound, which means they can vote as they please. Suddenly, all of these delegates are a big question mark, Wolf.

It comes down to the more you go to the voting, the more people become unbound, and they can, if they wish, ignore what all of those millions of voters have done so far in the primaries and caucuses -- Wolf?

[13:35:09] BLITZER: In some cases, Tom, this could get extreme. The popular vote wouldn't matter at all. Is that correct?

FOREMAN: That's exactly right. Let's look at North Dakota. There aren't a lot of states that have done this, but it does matter. There are states like North Dakota that have 28 delegates. They didn't have a popular vote, simply had a state convention. And at the state convention, the Cruz people worked the room pretty hard to make sure they had some folks among the delegates. But we don't really know because nobody in the delegation has to declare who they will vote for and they can change anytime they want. That's a question mark, too.

The simple truth is, Wolf, if you go to a contested convention, with each vote, it becomes much less certain who will win, and you end up with, not just in the Bayou State, but many places, what I say is some kind of voodoo voting -- Wolf?

BLITZER: Fascinating material. Tom Foreman, good explanation.

As the race moves forward, it is all about the critically important delegates. Donald Trump is trying to get to the magic number of 1237. Ted Cruz is desperately trying to stop him from reaching that magic number in the first round of ballots. What's the strategy for Donald Trump moving forward? What's the strategy for Cruz?

Joining us is Katrina Pierson, the spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. She is joining us from Dallas. And we're joined by CNN political commentator, Amanda Carpenter, a former communications director for Senator Cruz.

Ladies, to both of you, thank you for joining us.

Katrina, how likely is it this will be a contested convention? That your candidate Donald Trump won't have the magic number of 1237?

KATRINA PIERSON, SPOKESWOMAN, DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: We are still confident that Mr. Trump is going to achieve the delegate number to secure the nomination prior to going to a convention. We weren't even expecting to win delegates in Wisconsin last night and in fact we did. Moving forward the map is favorable to Mr. Trump as you showed the latest poll in New York. We will do well in the northeast and a heading in to California.

BLITZER: How do you explain -- I'm curious, this Monmouth University poll, we showed the numbers and we'll show them again. Trump at 52 percent of Republicans. It is a closed primary. Kasich in second place at 25, Cruz third, only 17 percent. What does that say to you?

AMANDA CARPENTER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I mean, Trump this is his home state. I don't think there is a single New Yorker in New York City or the upstate who doesn't know who Donald Trump is. His name I.D. and brand is strong. It is a must-win state for Donald Trump. It's not a must-win state for Ted Cruz. I think Cruz would be crazy to invest a lot of resources in to that very expensive media market to try to win it. Go ahead and let Donald Trump take it. Try to keep him under 50 percent. Focus like a laser on the more competitive states like Pennsylvania, Maryland, where you have a better chance of picking up more delegates.

Listen, we all woke up today. The likelihood of a contested convention is much more likely than it ever was because Donald Trump failed to close the deal in Wisconsin. This is a critical moment for Donald Trump campaign. At this time he should be getting stronger, but he's getting weaker. He cannot close the deal.

BLITZER: It is the second biggest prize of all of the states, Katrina, 95 delegates in New York State. If that Monmouth poll shows if it is above 50 percent, 50 percent plus one, he gets all 95 New York State delegates. Here's the question to you, who hurts Trump more in reaching the threshold, Kasich or Cruz?

PIERSON: It's most likely John Kasich that would be polling votes from the Cruz campaign, also from the Trump campaign. I also say this is isn't a do or die, as Amanda just said. We're confident we're going to win the 95 delegates out of New York City. Mr. Trump has been able to close the deal. This is one state. Mr. Trump has won the most states and has the most votes and will have the most votes going in to the convention. It seems Senator Cruz can't close the deal, at least on his own, which is why they sacrificed their principles of fighting against the establishment to join the establishment to fight against the will of the people.

BLITZER: Not just New York City, it is all of New York State. Correct you on that.

Amanda, right now the estimates are that Donald Trump needs to win 60 percent of the remaining delegates in the contests going forward. Cruz needs to win 90 percent. Is that realistic?

[13:39:44] CARPENTER: Anything is possible but I think we all realize we are going in to a contested convention. This is why you see Donald Trump and his surrogates trying to force a narrative that Ted Cruz is the establishment. If you read between the lines of Trump's statement, he is a guy who is saying I can unite people behind me. He's upset that others are not behind his candidacy. It is never Trump for a reason. People don't want to get behind Trump or be associated with his brand.

That's a problem for a presidential candidate. The idea is to unite the country behind you. Yet, he is alienating people. Ted Cruz is showing, despite everything he has done in Washington to fight the establishment, he can still be a unifier. That's the critical thing going in to a convention. These are party people at the end of the day. Donald Trump doesn't have a campaign organization to talk about. He doesn't have a surrogate operation. He is lacking a lot of fundamental campaign basics that Ted Cruz has. The longer it continues, the more likely it is that Ted Cruz walks out with the nomination.

(CROSSTALK)

PIERSON: We have been hearing that for a long time about the lack of organization or lack of ground game. Still, Mr. Trump continues to win the most states and votes. Mr. Trump has been running for president for nine months when Ted Cruz has been running for president nine years. There's definitely a gap that is being made up for. I'm still confident we will do well and reach those delegates before the convention.

BLITZER: Ladies, we have to end it there. Good conversation. Let's continue the conversations down the road.

Katrina and Amanda, appreciate it.

Coming up, Hillary Clinton sitting down with CNN, sounding off on Bernie Sanders and his stance on guns and more.

Stay with us. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:45:55] BLITZER: With the Wisconsin primary in the rear-view mirror, Democratic presidential candidates, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, are hitting the road and campaign in Pennsylvania.

I'm joined by our political commentator, Van Jones; and Luis Miranda, the communications director for the Democratic National Committee.

Gentlemen, thank you for joining us.

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: Van, Bernie Sanders didn't do himself favors in an interview with the "New York Daily News" editorial board. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED NEW YORK DAILY NEWS EDITORIAL BOARD MEMBER (voice-over): Expanding settlements is one thing. Coming in to office as a president, who set as a baseline that you want Israel to pull back settlements, that changes the dynamic in the negotiations. I'm wondering, how far and what you want Israel to do in terms of pulling back. SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, (I), VERMONT & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

(voice-over): Well, again, you are asking me a question, and if I had more in front of me, I would give you an answer. But I think if the expansion was illegal, mowing into territory that was not their territory, I think withdrawal from the territories is appropriate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: He spoke about how he would break up the big banks. Chris Cuomo asked Hillary Clinton about that a while ago. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR, NEW DAY: How much more substance does he need, other than I want to break up the banks? We will figure out how. I want to go after ISIS. I will figure out how to interrogate them.

(LAUGHTER)

HILLARY CLINTON, (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: Well --

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: A lot of people say it is about what you want to do. You figure out how later.

CLINTON: Yeah. Yeah, well, that's not the way I have seen it work over a lot of years, and a lot of reading of history. I think the presidents that are successful know what they want to do and how to do it. And they hit the ground running, able to do every aspect of the job both as president and as commander-in-chief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Van, how much damage do you believe was done to Bernie Sanders as a result of the lengthy interview he gave to the "New York Daily News?"

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, obviously, that was not a great thing. He had one of his best and worst days. He won at the ballot but he definitely lost in the interview. Here's reality. He can get sharper answers going forward. Because he's considered an under dog, he's never had to go through the kind of beating he's going to get in New York. The New York media is a different beast. This is not Iowa. Iowa are great, but this is a very different environment. He's coming in to what Hillary Clinton, her lion's den.

She has been here and knows how it operates. She is tired of playing defense on her funding on her speeches, et cetera. She wants to put him on defensive now and what happened in that interview, especially when you talk about Wall Street. His strength of going after Wall Street can be a weakness. He doesn't know what he will do in particular. A tough day for him. But do not count Bernie Sanders out. This guy has his own tricks he

can pull in New York. The Working Families Party is backing him, one of the most effective organizations out here. This is the war to settle the score. Both of these candidates have to do well in New York. Hillary Clinton was laughing. She may not be laughing much longer.

BLITZER: Luis, at this point in the race, I'm sure Hillary Clinton probably thought she would be focusing on a general selection, focusing on Republicans. Instead, she is implementing, we're told now, a new strategy. Some are calling it disqualifying defeat about Bernie Sanders. Listen to what she said about his position on guns.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: We have serious differences. We will be exploring those, whether it is how Dodd/Frank actually works. If you are concerned about income inequality and holding the banks accountable, you have to know how it works and what you have to do to make it work. I have the best plan to add to that. When it comes to guns, we have a really serious difference. I was appalled that Senator Sanders said he didn't see a reason for the parents of children massacred in Sandy Hook in Connecticut to be able to try to sue gun makers. I just absolutely disagree.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[13:50:09] BLITZER: I suspect expect it's going to get more intense the argument between the debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Luis, are you worried this could impact your party, the Democratic Party?

LUIS MIRANDA, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE: From the party's lens, this is exciting. We've had a great primary. This is what primaries are about is to discuss these differences. For us, what's encouraging, you look at the exit polls coming out of Wisconsin yesterday, seven out of 10 Democrats are excited and optimistic about both of our candidates. That's a big difference from four out of 10 Republicans in Wisconsin. Republican primary voters who think they would be scared of a Trump presidency and about a third that would rather not vote, vote for a Democrat, or third party if it was Trump or Cruz. We're seeing excitement and enthusiasm as a result of our primary and that puts us in a good position heading into November.

BLITZER: Guys, standby.

President Obama, as you know, he's trying to scale up the fight against ISIS. We will go live to Baghdad for more on some of the biggest challenges facing the U.S. and allies. We will get an update from the frontlines.

Much more coming up right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [13:55:26] BLITZER: President Obama says he's looking to scale up the battle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are working to make sure that we're accelerating the campaign against ISIL in Syria, in Iraq, ISIL continues to lose ground, we continue to take on their leadership, their financial networks, their infrastructure. We will squeeze them and we'll do defeat them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: The president made those remarks before a planning session with top military officials yesterday.

To talk about the fight against ISIS, I'm joined by Colonel Steve Warren, spokesman for the NIS ISIS coalition in Iraq. He joins us live from Baghdad.

Colonel, thanks very much for joining us.

What are some of the ideas being considered right now to ramp up this pressure to destroy ISIS?

COL. STEVE WARREN, SPOKESMAN, NIS ISIS COALITION: Well, thank you. It's a pleasure to be here.

The main thing that we are really looking at doing is increasing what we're already doing. So what we want to do here is continue the pressure from the air, while we scale up the amount of training, advising and assisting that we provide to the Iraqis. And it's the assisting part that everyone is most interested in. That takes many forms. We're not prepared to announce any of those yet but what you will see essentially is what's worked will be increased so we can do more of it.

BLITZER: What are the prospects of liberating Mosul, the second- largest city in Iraq, a city of about two million people that ISIS has now controlled for more than two years?

WARREN: Well, we believe that when Mosul is liberated, this will be the beginning of the end of the military component of ISIL. Difficult to say how long it will be. It will be some time. We're not there yet. We've begun what we call in the military shaping operations, which is conducting strikes in the city, maneuver outside of the city to prepare the battlefield for that fight. But it will be some time before it happens.

BLITZER: There's a lot of fear that this Mosul university chemistry lab is emerging as a place where ISIS fighters are building chemical bombs, chemical weapons, if you will, and that the U.S. wants to target those labs and destroy them. What can you tell us about that?

WARREN: Well, Wolf, I can tell you tonight that we have targeted those labs and we have destroyed them. So the chemical labs in Mosul University no longer pose a threat to anybody. They have been completely wiped out.

BLITZER: When did that happen?

WARREN: Well, this happened over a series of time. The most recent chemical weapons strike that we took was March 19th.

BLITZER: So it's been in the last few weeks. Do they have other capabilities where they can build these kinds of chemical weapons, poison gas, stuff like that?

WARREN: They do. We know that they are interested in deploying chemical weapons against us and against, you know, their other enemies on the battlefield. This gives them a tremendous psychological boost when they are able to deploy them. We've seen them deploy chemical weapons on several occasions. We suspect they've deployed chemical weapons on several other occasions.

Important to know what they're using really is industrial chemicals, chlorine, a commonly found chemical. Also, they're kind of cooking up some of their own homemade mustard gas as well. So these are things that we're aware of. As you know we captured their chemical weapons emir several weeks ago. This has been a source of important intelligence for us. And we're going after that chemical weapons network, Wolf.

BLITZER: And very quickly, Colonel, before I let you go, the Mosul dam, there's some concern there could be a catastrophic failure there. What's the status of that dam?

WARREN: Well, there are concerns about that and we know that Iraqis and others are working very hard to mitigate it. We don't really have a dog in that hunt, Wolf. We're really focused on ISIL and defeating this enemy. But we know the Iraqi government is focused on it and there have been many meetings and there's much going on in an effort to do two things, one, prevent that dam from failing and, number two, set up warning systems around the country.

BLITZER: Colonel Warren, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks to you and the men and women who serve with you in Iraq right now. Hopefully, this thing will move forward in a positive, positive way.

Appreciate it very much. Thank you.

WARREN: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: And that's it for me. Thanks very much for watching.

Once again, we're standing by to hear what Senator Cruz is going to say. He's getting ready to answer reporters' questions. We'll have live coverage of that coming up on CNN. There you see Senator Cruz moving towards the microphone. Stick around for that.

I will be back 5:00 p.m. eastern in "The Situation Room."

For our international viewers, "Amanpour" is coming up next.

For our viewers in North America, NEWSROOM with Brooke Baldwin starts right now.