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Paul Ryan Rules Himself Out; Delegate System; Presidential Race; Trump Not Welcome. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired April 12, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:13] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Jim Sciutto, thank you so much. Great to be with you on this Tuesday. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN.

We begin with the breaking news in the Republican race for the White House. Very soon we expect to see House Speaker Paul Ryan make really his most aggressive move yet to finally, in case he hasn't already, totally end any kind of talk that he could be up to become our next president. Aides say he will give an official statement at the Republican National Committee official ruling himself out of any nomination.

So let's go to our senior political reporter Manu Raju, who is live on Capitol Hill with all of the details.

Listen, he said no multiple times before. But finally this is it. Is it really?

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: It seems that way. I mean Paul Ryan has dealt with this increased speculation that he is maneuvering behind the scenes to position himself for a possible run in the deadlock convention. And he's tried to really end all that chatter for months. We've been asking him this and he said, no, of course not, I'm not running. That only seemed to intensify the speculation and the chatter also among party - people in the party establishment who are worried about Ted Cruz, who are worried about Donald Trump, and view Paul Ryan as a savior.

Now, he's going to make the case very clearly that no matter what he will not accept the Republican nomination. He is, of course, chairman of that convention and wants to deal with this, what could be a very messy fight on the floor in deciding who the next Republican nominee is, and as his office says, he wants to, quote, "call balls and strikes." And if he's see as maneuvering behind the scenes, that would undermine that effort. So expect a pretty definitive statement today, Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK, so we're going to watch for that. We'll take it live when it happens during the show. Manu, you also have some exclusive details about some top Republicans not going to Cleveland this July, why? Who?

RAJU: Yes. Absolutely, Brooke. I mean you're seeing a lot of Republicans nervous about what could be a very messy convention, a very, you know, Donald Trump said that if he's denied the nomination, maybe there could be riots there. A lot of Republicans are up for re- election are nervous about that. They don't want to be associated with this. And I've been told by senior Republican leader who said - telling their members not to attend the convention and worry about their own campaigns back home.

Richard Burke of North Carolina told me he's more likely to spend time on his re-election race. Same with Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, in a very tough re-election race. She told me unlikely she's going to attend. Nick Mulvaney, a House conservative, said he's actually lobbying his members to stay home, his fellow House conservative to stay home and not attend this convention.

And, interestingly, I ran into Jeb Bush in the Capitol today. I asked him, are you going to go to the convention in July? He said, no. So you're hearing a lot of Republicans want to stay away from what could be a really unpredictable and really messy convention and they don't probably want to have anything to do with it, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Manu Raju, we will be there, Cleveland, this July. We'll chat top of the next hour ahead of House Speaker Paul Ryan. Thank you, sir.

Now on to the actual presidential candidates. Donald Trump is raging against the party machine so to speak. The Republican frontrunner continues his tear against a delegate system that worked against him in the state of Colorado. He lost all 34 delegates there to his rival Ted Cruz. Not by popular vote, remember, Colorado, this is a state party convention process. But that perhaps foreshadows what could play out at the national party convention.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm millions of votes ahead, which they don't even talk about. They never even mention it. They talk about delegates. And I'm hundreds of delegates ahead. But the system, folks, is rigged. It's a rigged, disgusting, dirty system. It's a dirty system. And only a non-politician would say it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Well, Trump calls it rigged. Reince Priebus, the head of the Republican National Committee, says the process is clean, it is clear. He tweeted, quote, "the rules were set last year. Nothing Mysterious. Nothing new." But some delegate rules will play to Trump's favor if he comes to the convention with the 1,237 delegates necessary for the nomination. That is because in that first voting round, 95 percent of the delegates are bound, meaning they must vote for the candidate to whom they have pledged.

But, this is when it gets interesting, if Trump doesn't hit that threshold, the later rounds of voting open the doors for Ted Cruz and John Kasich. That second vote, the tables turn and 57 percent of delegates are unbound, meaning they can vote for the candidate they prefer. And if still no candidate has a majority of delegates, the third vote ushers in even more of a free for all with 81 percent of votes unbound.

[14:05:08] You with me? Larry Noble joins me. He is a convention rules expert. We need you today, Larry. We need you in the months ahead. He's an attorney for the Campaign Legal Center and was general counsel for the Federal Election Commission.

Larry Noble, great to see you.

LARRY NOBLE, FORMER GENERAL COUNSEL, FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSION: Great to see you. Thanks for having me.

BALDWIN: You know, I read this great piece in "The Washington Post" this morning and this one quote was from a former FEC general counsel. "If they decide to go to Cleveland," they being the delegates. "If they decide to go to Cleveland via Cabo, that might be a problem." I mean, Larry, spell it out for me. you know, ahead of Cleveland, what's allowed? You know, fancy first class flights for these delegates? Four star wining and dining in Cleveland? Tell me what is permissible.

NOBLE: Well, that's a really good question. You start with the idea that the convention is an election. And under Federal Election Commission rules, delegates are not subject to contribution limits, meaning somebody can pay for the travel to the convention. They can pay for their being put up at the convention. But it can't be - the money can't come from corporations. It can't come from labor unions. It can't come from foreign nationals. The question everybody has now is, well, where can that money come from if - and how much can they be given? Can they be sent on trips? Can they be sent on vacations? If it -

BALDWIN: What's the answer?

NOBLE: Well, I think - well, we're not quite sure of all the answers. So I think if it's a super PAC paying for it, the super PAC has corporate or labor money, then it can't pay for the - for the delegate. A candidate may be able to pay some expenses of the delegate, but candidates are under limits in terms of personal use of campaign funds for anybody. They can't pay for a vacation for a delegate. An individual, a wealthy individual, could pay for a delegate to - to attend various things and we won't necessarily know about that because that's not reported. So it's a bit confusing.

Also, I should say, some delegates are elected officials or state officials or local city officials, they're under their own ethic laws, so those come into play.

BALDWIN: So you mentioned, you know, an important point, what's reported and what's not. Who - who is policing all of this moving forward?

NOBLE: Well, I can tell you who is supposed to be policing this. The Federal Election Commission is supposed to be policing this. The Federal Election Commission has the rules regarding delegates. It is supposed to review the reports that are filed by various committees. But, unfortunately, the Federal Election Commission, as its own former chairman said, is a dysfunctional ladency (ph) or is beyond dysfunctional. It splits 3-3. It's a six-member commission. On most important matters, it can't issue rules or regulations. What should happen right now is if somebody has a question, they

should be able to go to the Federal Election Commission and ask for what's called an advisory opinion and the commission should be able to answer the - answer the question about what can the delegates do who can pay for it. But I think everybody -

BALDWIN: And if they don't do that?

NOBLE: Well, if they don't do that, then they should be taking their chances. But, everybody, I think, suspects the FEC wouldn't answer the question and also they're betting on the fact that the FEC won't enforce the law. So that if you do something that crosses the line, the odds that you'll hear from the FEC are slim. And if you do hear from them, it will be years later.

BALDWIN: If you are a betting man, and there are a few four-star, five-star restaurants in Cleveland, do you imagine that the restaurants will be packed in July?

NOBLE: Oh, I think they will be packed. I think they'll be packed with delegates, but they'll also be packed with lobbyists and other officials. Conventions have become somewhat of an ethics free zone. So I think you will see a lot of money being spent at the conventions.

BALDWIN: On process, I'd just be curious to pick your brain. You know, we just played the sound bite where Donald Trump essentially is saying that the electoral process, this whole process is rigged. And, you know, every four years we go through this. People gripe. We talk about the electoral college. What do you think?

NOBLE: Well, it is a process. There are rules with the process. It is not direct democracy either for the conventions, for the nominations, or, frankly, for picking the president. We do deal through a representative form of government. And the parties are private organizations that get to set their own rules. And, you know, if you know what the rules are going in, that's what you have to deal with.

Whether it's rigged, I think it's true that the parties are set up to basically favor establishment candidates. That's why you have, on the Democratic side, super delegates. You have certain rules on the Republican side. But those are the rules going into the process.

BALDWIN: Final question, and then I'll let you go. You know, when we think about these conventions and especially if we're anticipating multiple rounds of ballots on the Republican side, will this mean, then, you know, no sort of pomp and circumstance, no big speeches, no - a la, you know, Clint Eastwood? Will it just all be voting, voting, voting? What will it look like, Larry?

NOBLE: Oh, I think there still will be speeches. I think there will be a lot of pomp and circumstance. I think the party needs to show that it is a unified party, even if it's not. A lot of the voting will go on during the day and you will see for the cameras at night they will still be the various acts put on, the various things that play to the public.

BALDWIN: Larry Noble, thank you so much.

NOBLE: You're very welcome.

BALDWIN: CNN's Republican presidential town halls with the candidates and their families continue tonight at 9:00 Eastern. Do not miss. Donald Trump and his wife Melania, daughters Ivanka and Tiffany, and sons Eric and Don Jr., they will be taking questions from the voters of New York, only here on CNN. And tomorrow night, 9:00 Eastern, it is Ted Cruz and his wife Heidi Cruz's turn.

[14:10:13] Next, the records everyone wanted to see. Just a short time ago, the Clinton Presidential Library releasing all of its notes on Donald Trump. We will tell you what they reveal.

Plus, the mayor one California city wants to ban Trump from speaking there. How does she plan to do that? We'll ask her, live.

And a new twist in the shoot death of a former NFL star. Did Will Smith hit and run moments before he was shot? We have the new video. Keep it right here to CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

As Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battle it out here in New York just two days before they square off in a CNN debate in Brooklyn, Donald Trump is adding his voice to this whole thing. First he said the Democratic Party system was rigged. And now he is going hard after Hillary Clinton, throwing some harsh barbs at the Democratic frontrunner.

[14:15:12] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Her whole life has been a big, fat, beautiful lie. It's been a terrible, terrible lie. Everything about her is a lie.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Let's talk about the status of the Democratic race, shall we? Donna Brazile, a CNN political commentator, who's still laughing -

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Oh, my gosh.

BALDWIN: And Democratic strategist Jeff Zeleny, who has been all over the trail for us, CNN Washington senior correspondent.

So awesome seeing both of you ahead of the big debate in Brooklyn.

Donna Brazile, you laugh. What do you make of the fact that he said that about her?

BRAZILE: I mean, look, he's reacting to an ad that I thought was a very effective ad about New York, coming together, standing together. And Donald Trump doesn't like anyone to talk about him or his brand without hitting back. So he's just insulting. Another - another day -

BALDWIN: Isn't it red meat for him though? His supporters love this.

BRAZILE: They love any - they love - they love to hear his insults. I mean he has so many one liners that if I was a joke factory, I would be rich right now. I mean it - he is very good at hitting back. The problem is, is that there's hardly any content or any substance to what he's - what he's saying. That's why he's struggling at this period. He should be coasting to the nomination. Instead, he's struggling to keep a grip on the nomination at a time when Ted Cruz and his great organization is taking a delegate every day away from Donald Trump's arsenal to get to the nomination.

BALDWIN: On Hillary Clinton, Jeff Zeleny, we're two days before the big debate in Brooklyn.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right.

BALDWIN: And, you know, Hillary Clinton had said Sanders can't handle the bright lights of New York City.

BRAZILE: Oh. Oh.

ZELENY: Well, that is the latest iteration of how the Clinton campaign is dealing with Sanders. One, this is the one-year mark. Today marks the one year when she jumped in to the presidential race. And I can tell you, never in their one-year planner did it say that Bernie Sanders was going to be this big of a thorn in their sides. So the latest sort of strategy to draw criticism and draw distinction is to say he can't handle the bright lights. If -

BALDWIN: What do you think specifically she meant by that?

ZELENY: If you look - if you look it up in a Thesaurus, that would mean he's untested, he's not as qualified as she is. He got into a flap last week over the word "qualified."

BALDWIN: Right.

ZELENY: Technically he's qualified, but they do not believe he is as qualified as she is. They're trying to say now that - really trying to shake New York voters to say, look, I would be much stronger at taking on Donald Trump than Bernie Sanders would be.

BALDWIN: It seems like -

ZELENY: That's the message here from the Clinton campaign.

BALDWIN: Thus far when we've been looking at the Democratic debates versus the Republican, you could make the argument that it's been substance, substance, substance on the Democratic side.

BRAZILE: Yes.

BALDWIN: But I'm wondering, with all these barbs traded between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, especially with this latest one leveled against him, that it will be heated and potentially nasty come Thursday night.

BRAZILE: Well, it's been heated. I mean we - it's hard for me to feel the Bern all the time because I'm neutral and I don't want to get that excited anymore. But the truth is, is that this is a very competitive race. Secretary Clinton has a very good lead in terms of pledged delegates. And we all know the supers will also be part of the mix. But Bernie is really running a very, what I call provocative campaign. I mean, look, I - my - my e-mail - I get - I get their e-mails. You know, I love e-mails. And, you know, this morning, they want $3. And then later today they want $27. So they're still running a very interesting campaign. They're talking about fracking up in upstate New York. They're trying to mobilize people. Wall Street is still a huge topic, income inequality. So this is going to be an very contested primary. She may have a lead, but he's going to stay in the race until June - June 7th or June 14th.

BALDWIN: What about on Bill Clinton, who's really sort of become this surrogate in chief for her on the trail?

ZELENY: Right.

BALDWIN: And, for the most part, has been on pretty good behavior. Has been - has done well for her, except for what happened last week. Do you - what do you make of how it's gone?

ZELENY: The ups -

BALDWIN: Do you think he's a liability moving ahead?

ZELENY: No, I think the upside is always better than the downside with Bill Clinton, without a doubt.

BRAZILE: Right.

ZELENY: Now, there has been a bit of downside. There has been a little sort of - some clean-up duty I guess you might say. But, look, I think Bill Clinton still makes the case very effectively and he's out there doing it today as well.

Also, I thought it was interesting, he's reminding people that Bernie Sanders has not been a Democrat all that long. He's like, you know, once he becomes a Democrat a little bit longer, which is code for not really a Democrat, and he also said something just about an hour or so ago in Flushing, out in Queens, that he said, look, the people against Bernie Sanders, whenever you oppose anything that Hillary Clinton says, he says that some like dark forces are out there. There are no dark forces out there. He said they agree almost on 93 percent of the time, but - so he's trying to get the Sanders people to sort of calm down and saying, you know, that Hillary Clinton is not corrupt, not tainted. He's eventually, I think, will be a key person in bringing these people together because people like Bill Clinton. Democrats like Bill Clinton.

BRAZILE: No, I - they - that's right. He was at 60 percent in the Gallup poll about two months ago. I think he's at 58 percent. So he's gone down just a little bit, but within the margin of error. [14:20:02] BALDWIN: Yes.

BRAZILE: He's an asset.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BRAZILE: Jane Sanders is an asset. I believe all of these spouses are assets to the campaign. And, you know, the one thing I like about Bill Clinton is that he understands how to do double duty. Going out there every day to help Secretary Clinton get the message out. But he's also helping Democrats up and down the ballot. Remember, we have a big contested Senate - Senate races all over the country and Bill Clinton would be invaluable to those Democrats across the country as well. And, by the way, Bernie Sanders is a super delegates. He's a Democrat. He's a super delegate.

ZELENY: He'll probably support himself as a super delegate -

BRAZILE: Absolutely.

ZELENY: Because the state of Vermont went overwhelmingly for him.

BRAZILE: That's right, but I'm neutral -

ZELENY: Right.

BRAZILE: And D.C. doesn't vote till June 14th, and I'm going to remain neutral.

BALDWIN: Uh-huh. Uh-huh.

ZELENY: OK.

BALDWIN: Donna Brazile and Jeff Zeleny, duly noted.

BRAZILE: Feeling it.

BALDWIN: Feeling it. We'll talk to you all I'm sure in the next two weeks.

ZELENY: Thank you, Brooke.

BRAZILE: Yes.

BALDWIN: Thank you very much.

And, again, in just two days, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton face off in Brooklyn for the next CNN Democratic presidential debate. That is this Thursday, 9:00 p.m. Eastern, only here on CNN.

Coming up, as the candidates prepare to converge upon California, the mayor of one city is drawing a proverbial line in the sand, saying Donald Trump is not welcome in her community. Some say she's actually going a tad too far. We'll talk to the mayor of West Hollywood live next. We're also anticipating an announcement from House Speaker Paul Ryan.

After weeks and weeks of speculation, he could, you know, ultimately be parachuted in and become the party's nominee at the convention. We will bring that to you live when it happens here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:25:52] BALDWIN: Now, the California primary isn't until June, but the candidates are already hitting the West Coast, aiming to grab what's sure to be a key delegate bloc. And that includes Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. But the mayor of southern California's West Hollywood has a message for that candidate, keep your hate speech to yourself.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LINDSEY HORVATH, MAYOR OF WEST HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA (voice-over): It's very important that I protect our city and keep our city safe. And that starts with the language that we use. I wanted to make it very clear that Donald Trump, the kind of hateful rhetoric that he is using, the kind of violence that his supporters are perpetrating and that he is supporting from his podium, is not welcome in our community.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: And here she is, West Hollywood Mayor Lindsey Horvath joining me now.

Mayor Horvath, wonderful to have you.

MAYOR LINDSEY HORVATH, WEST HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA: Thanks for having me.

BALDWIN: We just heard you spell it out just a bit, but here live on CNN, I mean, you know, you wrote him an open letter saying his politics aren't welcome in West Hollywood. What is the biggest reason why you don't want Mr. Trump there?

HORVATH: You know, West Hollywood is a very diverse community. We're over 40 percent LGBT. We have Russian-speaking immigrants, some of whom were concentration camp survivors. We're the first declared pro- choice city in America. We created the first transgender advisory board. Our city is very diverse. We're very open. We're very welcoming. And that's the kind of community we want to continue to be. And the way that Donald Trump has used hate speech, his violent tactics and systemically targeting people for their religion, for their country of origin, for their gender, is not the kind of behavior, not the kind of language that we want in our community.

BALDWIN: I hear you on your own opinion, but as far as, you know, legal grounds, if the Trump campaign were to want to come to West Hollywood, obviously they'd need to apply for a permit. Do you have the authority as mayor to say no?

HORVATH: Not everyone who comes to the city needs to apply for a permit. And we're certainly not greeting Mr. Trump at the border with our sheriff's department. This isn't about free speech, this is about hate speech. We don't want violent tactics. The kind of violent tactics that Mr. Trump himself has encouraged and that his supports continue to use.

In response to my letter, his supports have written to me saying they're going to gut me like a fish. They've sent me videos of dead fetus parts. They've used homophobic slurs, racial slurs, targeting members of my community that make our community rich. Our diversity is something we celebrate. We don't apologize for it, we celebrate it. That's the kind of community we are and that's the kind of community we want to create.

BALDWIN: While that is disgusting, some of the imagery, there is, you know, obviously freedom of expression, which you know about. In addition to that, West Hollywood city attorney Michael Jenkin says, you know, reiterating the fact that your comments are your opinion. Quote, "the city would consider an application from the Trump campaign no differently from any other campaign." Would you be willing, because of how you, you know, so passionately feel, would you be willing to take an action that could be considered unconstitutional here?

HORVATH: Again, the city is going to follow the law. This isn't about free speech, this is about hate speech. And we are able and willing to exercise our voice and use our First Amendment rights to say that we want to elevate the discourse here. We're demanding civil discourse. That's not too much to ask. Certainly not of someone who's running for the highest office in the land. He should respect the office by treating it with the respect that it deserves.

BALDWIN: So your argument being, you say it is hate speech, therefore you're saying no would thus be constitutional, is that you argument?

HORVATH: I - what I'm saying is that we will follow the law, but what - but we - it is fully within our right to say that certain behavior, certain language, isn't welcome. Some communities may roll out the red carpet for Mr. Trump. We're rolling up the carpet.

BALDWIN: OK. Mayor Lindsey Horvath, mayor of West Hollywood, California, thank you.

HORVATH: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Coming up next, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, speaking, setting the record straight. He says he will tell everyone again he does not want to run for president, but could there still be a chance for an upset at the GOP convention? We'll discuss that.

[14:30:06] Also, President Obama admits the biggest mistake of his presidency. Does it help or hurt Hillary Clinton's chances at the White House?