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Paul Ryan Rules Himself Out of Presidential Race. Aired 3-3:30p ET

Aired April 12, 2016 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:05]

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hour two. Here we go. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

Breaking political news. Any moment now, we will see the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, making what he probably hopes will be his final move to end all this talk about his running for president in 2016.

According to aides, Speaker Ryan will give an official statement at the Republican National Committee office ruling himself out totally of this nomination.

Let's first begin our coverage this hour with senior political reporter Manu Raju live there at the RNC office with those details.

We're minutes away from the House speaker. Listen, he said it before over and over, I don't want this, I don't want this.

What will he say differently this go-round?

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Brooke, he's probably said it close to two dozen times, but that really has not stopped the speculation that maybe he is open to doing it, particularly if there is a deadlocked convention.

These questions about whether or not he could be this last-minute savior has actually traveled -- followed him all the way to Israel last week, when he was on an official trip there. And he of course didn't want to focus on a possibility that he may come in.

Now, he has said repeatedly he will absolutely not be a candidate for president. That's something that he wants to make absolutely crystal- clear. Now, expect sort of a Shermanesque statement that this is something that he will not even accept if there is a possibility of a deadlocked convention.

One of the things that he wants to focus on is saving the House Republican majority, something that some folks fear could be increasingly at risk, particularly if Donald Trump or Ted Cruz is the Republican nominee. Every time that Paul Ryan has done something, raising money in New York, for instance, a news story came out yesterday suggesting that maybe he's doing something to position him to run for president. He wants to end those questions and say that his focus exclusively is

on the House Republican majority, saving that, and that he will not be candidate for president. And, of course, he's chairman of the convention and this could be a fight, a messy floor fight, and he wants to make clear that he is not doing anything to be that last- minute candidate, so folks don't think he's actually being neutral in case it does devolve into a messy fight on the floor, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Well, we will take it live in a matter of minutes, but let me stay with you and just ask. I know you also, Manu, have some exclusive reporting about looking ahead to the Republican Convention this summer in Cleveland. You are reporting that a number of top Republicans won't be there. Who? Why?

RAJU: That's right, Brooke.

Actually, a number of Republicans that don't want to be associated with any sort of mess at the Republican Convention. Remember, Donald Trump actually said that possibly if he doesn't get the nomination that there could be riots potentially. And Republicans who are up for reelection are saying that they don't necessarily want to be associated with that. We talked to some who several who are -- also Republican leaders who say stay away from the convention, worry about campaigning back home.

Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Richard Burr of North Carolina, both of them are up for reelection. Asked them point blank, will you go to the convention? Both of them said it is increasingly unlikely. I ran into Jeb Bush at the Capitol today. I said, will you go to the convention? He said no.

So you're really seeing Republicans start to stay away from what could be sort of an ugly scene in Cleveland, Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK, Manu Raju, stand by. Thank you so much.

We're watching, waiting to see House Speaker Paul Ryan momentarily.

But with that, joining me now, a mega panel on this Tuesday.

I have chief political analyst Gloria Borger, CNN political reporter David Chalian, CNN political commentator Margaret Hoover, Republican strategist, and in another screen, chief national correspondent John King. I also have Ryan Williams, a former spokesperson for Mitt Romney, and Lou Gargiulo, the Trump campaign co-chair in Rockingham County, New Hampshire.

To all of you, welcome. We're going to have a big meaty chat here covering all things politics. But let's just begin, staring at the three of you all. Hello, by the way.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: With Paul Ryan, how many times does he have to say I don't want to be president?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Nineteen.

No, "The Washington Examiner" totaled all the times he said it. He said 19 times that he is not going to run for president on be president or do anything. The thing is, Republicans ought to feel and I think do feel very lucky to have Paul Ryan as part of the leadership, because he can actually inject -- he's going to play a role at the convention besides being sort of this titular chair of the convention -- he's trusted amongst all of the clans of the Republican Party, all of these factions.

And if we have an open and contested convention, he's the one guy that everybody trusts will be able to help make sure that the rules are enforced.

BALDWIN: He wants to call the balls and the strikes is what he said.

(CROSSTALK)

HOOVER: Transparently and fairly for all parties involved. Everybody trusts that Paul Ryan can be that person.

BALDWIN: But why is he doing it now? Why today?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: What he's trying to do here is buy himself a couple of months.

He needs to buy himself some time to do his day job as speaker between now and the convention. He knows what he says today is not going to be the end of this -- 19 times. I'm not big on predictions. I don't like to make them too much. I guarantee this is not the last time he's going to have to say this.

He will have to say it again. But what he hopes to do is to be able to put a pin in this conversation, focus on what he's doing in the House right now until he gets a little closer to the convention. And he knows and his team knows this is going to all be chatter again as we head into Cleveland.

[15:05:10]

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, I think as many times as he said no, as you point out, there has been a little bit of a mixed message coming out of the Ryan camp.

He's got some great people around him who have a very robust social media presence. They keep sending out videos. Paul Ryan's doing this, Paul Ryan's doing that.

BALDWIN: So, it makes you think, hang on a second.

BORGER: Wait a minute. OK.

And as did John Boehner before him, I might add. Front-page "New York Times" story about Paul Ryan out there raising money for the party and differentiating himself from the top two contenders in the Republican presidential race on a whole host of issues, not the least of which is immigration, I might add, and trade.

So you have this -- Ryan is differentiating himself, out there with a robust media presence, front page of "The New York Times." You put one and one and one together and you get three. And what he is saying, uh-uh, it's not three, I'm not running.

BALDWIN: Let me -- John King, what say you, sir?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I agree with everything that has been said.

But I also want to add this. Speaker Ryan is a very thoughtful person. He also -- he is a very ambitious person. He would like to be president of the United States. But I'm told, Brooke, that he and those close to him have looked at this moment and they essentially view the Republican Party, these are my words, at a Humpty Dumpty moment, that Humpty Dumpty, you know how it goes, is sitting up there on the wall.

They think if you have a contested convention and it's a huge fight and if Donald Trump doesn't get the nomination at a contested convention, that Humpty Dumpty's going to have a great fall and that all the speaker's horses and all the speaker's men, if you follow where I'm going here...

BALDWIN: Cannot put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Thank you very much.

KING: Think of the drama. Sure, wouldn't you love to be that person, the white knight who gets the nomination at a contested convention?

However, Speaker Ryan listens to Donald Trump. The people around Speaker Ryan listen to Donald Trump. They think if somebody else wins the nomination, Donald Trump, right or wrong, is going to say I got ripped off and he's going around the country this year and make it nearly impossible, if not totally impossible, for that Republican to get elected.

BALDWIN: Well, hasn't he already planted that narrative?

KING: Well, that's the thing. If you're Paul Ryan, and you want to be president some day, you're thinking, you know what? Very rarely does the same party keep the same office after two terms. George H.W. Bush was the last one to do it.

It very rarely happens. Then what almost always happens, when that happens, it's a one-term presidency. Paul Ryan is thinking 2020 will be a lot cleaner than 2016.

BALDWIN: OK. I am told we have dug up, we have gone to the archives, not too far back. This is 1988. This is Paul Ryan then. Roll it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would just like to tell Mr. Ryan that I really appreciate him as a Christian. Wish he was a representative for Louisiana. If he ever runs for president, he has my vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thanks for the call.

REP. PAUL RYAN (R), WISCONSIN: I'm not old enough.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: OK, I don't know how old he would have been there.

CHALIAN: Not 35, apparently.

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: He was a really young member of Congress. You know, he was a Jack Kemp protegee and a very young member of Congress and has always -- and became in many ways an accidental speaker, right?

And so, you know, could he become an accidental president? I think that's sort of one step, you know, one step too far. But Ryan, to John's point, I think does want to be president one day. I know Mitt Romney wants Paul Ryan to be president one day. But I think Ryan believes he has to run for it if he wants to be president. And this isn't the time.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Parachuting in, three months to go.

BORGER: His role is to save the House. His role is to make sure that the majority sticks in the House of Representatives, and that can be a tough job.

HOOVER: It's not his moment. I think he knows it's not his moment. His team knows it's not his moment, as John was saying.

Part of it is that what we have seen with Donald Trump, you have two really competing factions in the Republican Party right now. You have the sort of movement conservative faction that really believes that purity and sort of being a pure movement conservative is going to win the presidential election.

Then you have this emergent Trump faction which is really expressing the grievances of working-class Republicans, but at the moment also is manifesting itself in protectionism and isolationism and nativism.

I think all of these needs to be absorbed in the Republican Party. Anybody who comes out of that convention nominated is going to be badly damaged. Even if it's the top two guys, if it's a third guy or Paul Ryan, there's no way you can run a national election where you can actually demographically get the kind of people you need to win in three months, especially if you're a white Republican.

It's just not going to happen. So he would be damaged goods if he were the nominee coming out of the convention. BORGER: Right.

BALDWIN: Go ahead, David.

CHALIAN: I would just -- Margaret made such a good point before though about -- Ryan has touch points in each of those factions you just described.

HOOVER: Which is why he's so attractive, right?

CHALIAN: Exactly, which is why, again, this may not be his moment, but you can see down the road why he believes that whatever kind of Republican Party does get pieced together after the 2016 election is one that he's going to have -- his hand is going to be able to reach into many portions of it.

BALDWIN: OK.

So, Mr. Humpty Dumpty, John King, I have a question for you on Donald Trump. I know everyone here has seen these numbers, staggering numbers from the New York One poll. I don't know if I ever seen this number this big for Donald Trump for this date in New York, 60 percent, then Kasich and then on down, Cruz.

[15:10:07]

In the meantime, though, he does -- in the same poll, he's trounced by Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-heads come a general election. How do you read all of that, John?

KING: Well, number one, no one should be surprised that the Democratic candidates overwhelmingly lead in New York state in the general election, even though Donald Trump is from New York. That's not really about Trump. That's about New York state. It's a blue state come November.

What do I read about that 60? There are two other polls out today that have him above 50. If Donald Trump is above 50 statewide and if he can carry that through most, if not all of the congressional districts, then Donald Trump is back on track, a narrow chance, Brooke, but not an impossible chance. And he has the only chance to clinch before the Republican National Convention.

If he gets all 95 or if he can get 75 or 80 of those, it improves his position going on to Maryland, to Delaware, to Connecticut, to Rhode Island, to Pennsylvania for the rest of April, all states where Donald Trump is favored, all states where Ted Cruz, being an evangelical Christian, Tea Party guy, Texan, has a problem, where John Kasich does not have the organization.

Trump is the only one with a chance. Trump's in a lot of organizational trouble at the state conventions when they're picking delegates. Trump has gotten outhustled by Cruz at a lot of levels. So, we can beat up on Donald Trump and say he's had a horrible few weeks. However, he still has the best, the only chance to clinch before the convention and it looks like New York is going to get him a bit of wind at his back as he goes through the rest of the month.

BALDWIN: All right, panel, I want you all to stand by. We're seeing a little movement here in the room. Again, this is the RNC office. We're watching and waiting for House Speaker Paul Ryan once again to say no thank you, I do not want to be president, at least here in 2016.

Quick break. We will take it live on the other side.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:15:50]

BALDWIN: We are just about 60 seconds an away from the big moment here. And the media is ready to roll, live pictures inside.

This is the Republican National Committee offices in our nation's capital, as we are all anticipating a big announcement from the speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, specifically reiterating what we have heard him say, according to Margaret Hoover and the newspaper, 19 times.

HOOVER: "Washington Times."

BALDWIN: "The Washington Times" -- thank you -- that unequivocally he does not want to be president, at least here in 2016, the thought that he would be a name that would be parachuted in, in the case of a contested convention for the Republicans in Cleveland come July.

So, you know, interesting, the timing today. You know, we're talking to our entire panel.

And, David Chalian, to you, in like half-a-minute, the timing, why today?

CHALIAN: Why today? Because, as Gloria was talking about before, a lot of things were bubbling up.

That "New York Times" story I think is one that sort of put it over the edge. There was a lot of talk about it. And it was becoming a distraction for Paul Ryan and it was becoming a distraction from the 2016 race. And so I think why today is, listen, he has work that he's got to get done.

There aren't that many legislative days left in this election year. He's got to actually move the ball forward a little bit in the House.

BALDWIN: Ryan Williams, forgive me. Let me go to you.

I know you worked with them in 2012. What do you make of why, you know, he needs to come out today and unequivocally say this?

RYAN WILLIAMS, REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN CONSULTANT: Well, I agree with David, this is becoming a distraction. The speaker has a very busy legislative calendar ahead of him.

This week, they're dealing with the Puerto Rico debt issue, which is turning into a humanitarian crisis on the island. There's a lot of other things he has to get done in a short period of time and the repeated questions about running for president were becoming a distraction. He's not running. This isn't his year. He said it a number of times.

I don't know how much clearer he can be. But I think that this kind of official event will hopefully from his perspective pop the balloon that others are floating on his behalf.

BALDWIN: But, again, John King, let's remind everyone he's not just the speaker of the House. He plays a pivotal role at the convention come July, John. Explain that.

KING: Right. He would have the gavel. He's the speaker. He's going to run the proceedings. He wants to be viewed as an honest broker. And that's certainly part of this.

He also knows -- you're saying, why now? He also knows that Donald Trump again is going to be sitting down at a big media event tonight at a town hall with our own Anderson Cooper and he knows that Donald Trump has been going around the country saying this is rigged against him.

Paul Ryan wants to be clear that if he gets to Cleveland, he's going to do an honest job running the convention, that he's going to count votes and it's going to be done transparently. He does not want to be tainted by this.

Now, does it absolutely, positively rule out that if Trump can't win on the first ballot and if Cruz can't win on the second and the third ballot, and people go looking for a white knight, that his name will come up again? Of course not. His name will come up again because he has such broad appeal across the Republican Party.

But, to everybody's point, he has a budget to pass. He's the highest- ranking Republican in the land right now.

BALDWIN: He has a day job.

KING: He has a day job and it's an important one. And he's a thoughtful guy who wants to have a future.

BALDWIN: You know, Gloria, John brings up an interesting point. What we have been hearing, the sound bite from Donald Trump about how this whole thing is rigged, beyond Paul Ryan coming out and saying no thank you, how does he address the noise around this race?

BORGER: How does Ryan?

BALDWIN: Ryan, Ryan, the rigged comment and everything else.

BORGER: Well, I think what he's trying to do and he's said in a bunch of interviews that he wants to be Switzerland. He says he wants to be the place where people can go and be the peacemaker within the party.

And I think he wants to be seen as somebody, as John was just saying, who understands the rules, explains the rules to everybody and somebody everybody trusts. So if there is all this noise and chaos, which we expect there probably will be if you head into a contested convention, then Paul Ryan wants to be seen as that Switzerland, that honest broker, who can talk to all of the candidates, all of their staffs, all of the delegates, and figure out how to come out with a unified party as much as he can possibly do that, because what's at stake is not only the presidential election, because, as we were talking before, it's control of the Congress.

And that's very important to him personally.

[15:20:02]

HOOVER: He wants to be more than Switzerland, though.

It's not -- Switzerland is just keeping the peace. He also wants to put forth a positive, substantive agenda for the Republican Party that stands in contrast to what we hear is the circus that is going on right now in terms of the Republican Party.

So I think what he's going to talk about today is not just what he's not going to do in 2016. He's going to talk about what he is going to do in 2016, because the Republican Party needs desperately an agenda to deal with the working class, an agenda -- he's been very interested since 2012 in a poverty agenda, in sort of recreating a compassionate conservatism that can appeal for more broadly than just the traditional Republican base.

CHALIAN: He also has not shied away from playing the scold at times in this race.

He has on a couple of occasions gone before the press corps up on Capitol Hill and expressed his displeasure in the tone of the race at certain times or put his feelings out there that he thought the candidates maybe went too far in certain circumstances. So, right, yes, he may not shy away from that. He may have some words here also about, yes, he's not going to be in the race.

And, yes, he will have words about his agenda, but I also think he's going to have words for those candidates remaining in the race about how they should proceed.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I keep thinking of the Mitt Romney speech, what was it, a month or so ago from the University of Utah. I don't know if he will take it that far as the former governor did. But it will be interesting to see the scolding, the Switzerland role.

Here he is, House Speaker Paul Ryan. No, no, I'm being told two minutes. There we go.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Two minutes.

But, no, it's Mitt Romney moment. And hearing all this also reminds me of John Kasich's speech a little bit from earlier today. We have some sound. Let's listen to John Kasich.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Some who feed off of the fears and the anger that is felt by some of us and exploit it feed their own insatiable desires for fame or attention. That could drive America down into a ditch and not make us great again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: To me, Ryan Williams, let me bring you in, he's saying unlike some of what we have heard from these other Republican candidates, listen, America's great. He's a state executive. We can work through this, we can embrace government.

What did you make of Governor Kasich today?

WILLIAMS: Well, governor Kasich is trying to lay out a rationale for his continued candidacy.

And there really isn't one at this point. He's not going to be the nominee of the party. He's hoping for a miracle at a contested convention and that's not going to happen. The reality is that the nominee of this party is probably going to be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. It's not going to be John Kasich.

The only question now is whether or not Donald Trump gets the delegates he needs before the convention or not. And I think, at this point, it looks like it's getting narrower. But a big win in New York may put him back on track. We will have to see.

But if it does go to a contested convention, Ted Cruz is very well- positioned given his ground game to have delegates go his way on a second, third or fourth ballot. He's put together a great team and he's doing a very good job right now. He's earning it if he gets to a contested convention.

BALDWIN: There he is, Paul Ryan.

RYAN: Afternoon.

I just returned from a weeklong trip from the Middle East to meet with our allies and our partners there. We had some important conversations about ISIS, the security threat in that region and those around the world.

But I will tell you, it is really amazing how our politics is followed so closely overseas. I was asked about it everywhere I went. I'm also aware that, while I was overseas, there was more speculation that someone other than the current candidates will emerge as our party's nominee.

I want to put this to rest once and for all. As you know, I have stayed out of this race, and I have remained neutral. As chairman of the Republican Convention, my job is to ensure there is integrity in the process, that the rules are followed by the rule book. That means it is not my job to tell delegates what they should do.

But I have got a message to relay today. We have too much work to do in the House to allow this speculation to swirl or to have my motivations questioned.

So, let me be clear. I do not want, nor will I accept the nomination for our party.

So, let me speak directly to the delegates on this. If no candidate has a majority on the first ballot, I believe that you should only choose from a person who has actually participated in the primary. Count me out.

I simply believe that if you want to be the nominee for our party, to be the president, you should actually run for it. I chose not to do this. Therefore, I should not be considered, period, end of story.

I just think it would be wrong to go any other way. So, let me say again, I am not going to be our party's nominee.

But I will also be clear about something else. Not running does not mean I'm going to disappear.

[15:25:03]

When I accepted this speakership, I did so on the condition that I would do things differently than they had been done in the past. For one, I made it clear that this would be a policy- and communications- focused speakership. And, secondly, I made clear last year in 2015, before the primaries even started, that we would be putting together a policy agenda and offer a clear choice to the American people.

That's what I told my colleagues I would do, and that is exactly what I have been doing. Look, there is a big debate going on right now. It's about what kind of country we're going to be. As speaker of the House, I believe that I have not just an opportunity, but an obligation to advance that debate.

As I have talked about this before, politics today, it tends to drift toward personality contests, not policy contests. Insults get ink more than ideas.

But we still owe it to the country to show what we would do if given a mandate from the people. We have an obligation to give a clear picture, a clear choice, to talk about solutions. That's why I have been giving speeches. That is why I have been communicating a vision for what our party and our country can be.

And that is why I'm going to continue doing just that. I believe we can once again be an optimistic party that is defined by our belief in the limitless possibility of our people. We want a party defined by solutions, by being on the side of the people. We want to take our principles and apply them to...

BALDWIN: Looks like we lost him. No, let's try it again?

RYAN: Offer a tax code that rewards work, not the well-connected, a strong and focused military, a health care system that promotes choice and flexibility, a secure border, a government that allows people to (AUDIO GAP).

You know, this great idea that the condition of your birth doesn't determine the outcome, that's the kind of an agenda we are building right now. And that is the kind of an agenda that we are going to be releasing in the next few months.

This job provides a platform to communicate a conservative vision for our country. And I am intent on using it. And I am intent on using this platform not for me, but for my House colleagues, and for those who believe that conservatism holds the keys to a confident America.

This is a critical role that has to be played, and I'm in a position to play that role, to prepare for the fall campaign with our eventual nominee that gives a clear and compelling choice to our fellow citizens, so that we can earn the mandate we need to get things right, to fix our problems and to get our country back on track.

Thank you.

QUESTION: A lot of people said, hey, this is exactly what he said about becoming speaker, and then he ended up taking the job.

What do you say to people that are -- continue to be skeptical of you and say you're just going to back into this...

(CROSSTALK)

RYAN: Apples and oranges. Luke, those are apples and oranges.

Being a speaker of the House is a far cry from being president of the United States, specifically because I was already in the House. I'm already a congressman. So, I was asked by my colleagues to take a responsibility within the Congress that I have already been serving in from the one that I had.

That is entirely different than getting the nomination for president of the United States by your party without even running for the job, so completely non sequitur comparison in my book.

QUESTION: What happens if it goes to a second ballot, since you're in charge? And what happens, who prevents them -- you as the chair of the convention -- from somebody from the floor, and you're adhering to the rule book, put your name...

(CROSSTALK)

RYAN: I will not allow my name. I am opposed to my name being put in place.

(CROSSTALK)

RYAN: And I -- look, let me answer your second question. The rules committee, which is assembled by the delegates, will decide what the rules are.

But I would encourage those delegates to put in place a rule that says you can only nominate someone who actually ran for the job.

QUESTION: Speaker Ryan, so does the mean that you think that only the three candidates who are remaining will be your party's nominee?

RYAN: I will leave it up to the delegates of the rules committee to decide that.

I just think, honestly, I really believe if you want to be president, you should run for president. And when we select a nominee, we should be selecting among people who actually ran for the job. I will leave it at that.

Thank you very much.

BALDWIN: Say it again. Right. All right. That was pretty short and sweet, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan saying essentially, listen, to be president, you should actually run for it, saying to the delegates there, maybe you need to add a little rule in your rule book come Cleveland in July you need to nominate somebody who has actually been running for president.

I'm just kind of cutting through it for you.

But I have our A-team, who's been listening to Paul Ryan that entire time.

Gloria, thoughts?

BORGER: I don't think we need to parse his words.

(LAUGHTER)

BALDWIN: Pretty simple.

BORGER: I think this is pretty simple and Shermanesque: I do not want, nor will I accept the nomination.