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House Speaker Paul Ryan Soeaks about the Possible Republican Convention; 3:30-4p ET

Aired April 12, 2016 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN HOST: Gloria, thoughts?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think we need to parse his words. Pretty simple. I do not want nor will I accept the nomination. He also went a step further and said he would encourage delegates to approve a rule that would say that you can't nominate anybody who hasn't actually run for the presidency. So take out the white knight scenario completely. So I don't think there's any questioning why Paul Ryan --

BALDWIN: Do you think they actually will?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Create the rule? I don't know. Listen, the way that works, he recommends the rule, then the rules committee of the RNC needs to approve it, recommend it to the convention committee and then the whole floor of the delegates to prove it. There are a lot of steps there. I'm not sure that a rule like that will make it (INAUDIBLE).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: By the way that probably should have been in his written remarks. It was not in his delivered remarks. That was a question. At the end that he answered to. And he said, well, the only way to make sure it happens is that it is in the rules. As we all know, the rules for the convention have not been accepted. They are authored a week before the convention.

So, no. He can't control the delegates. Nobody can control the delegates. But what he's saying is I encourage them to go ahead and do this. I mean, you know, he is clear on his intentions but what we need to do is make sure that the delegates do it.

BALDWIN: You know, John King, I thought it was interesting, he was in the Middle East last week. I was in the Middle East last week. I was on the "USS Harry Truman" embedded with the phenomenal U.S. navy for two days. And you know, I have to tell you that every single person, every American at least is following every bit of this election and these candidates. That is the front line of the war on terror over there. That it was interesting that he opened up that whole thing by saying they're watching us. The world is watching.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And it is incredibly true. I was in Toronto for the NBA all-star week, everybody in Canada wants to know about it. You have a lot of international visits who come in Washington for different events. I run into them either at those events or just around town in a restaurant and line to get a cup of coffee. And the first thing they ask is about Donald Trump or about Bernie Sanders and about what is going on. Sometimes they have some choice language about what is going on in our election.

Look, it's a great story here in the United States, but it is a global story. And speaker Ryan knows that maybe his staff is trying to promote him as speaker. A lot of those videos, a lot of the other things they have done, as Gloria and David were discussing earlier, have created the impression, well, actually, he is kind of running a shadow campaign for president.

Look, take the man at his word. But if we get to a contested convention, as Gloria said, he wants to be Switzerland. I'm not sure if we get three, four, five ballots in, he's not going to wish he was in Switzerland.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Good one.

KING: But we'll be happy, we'll be happy four or five ballots in.

BALDWIN: OK, Lou Gargiulo, forgive me, but I just want to make sure now we are getting to you. I just want to make sure we heard from the house speaker before we heard from you. You know, Trump is your man, and we heard speaker Ryan say specifically insults are getting more ink than ideas. He didn't name names, but what were you thinking about when you heard that?

LOU GARGUILO, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I was thinking that speaker Ryan made a great decision today to come out, up front, stated his positions, stated what he was planning to do, gave some guidance I think to the candidates, voicing his concerns. But I think, too, speaker Ryan's a pragmatist. And I think he realizes that even if there was a contested convention, even if his name was entered into the nomination, he would have a very tough time with both the Trump delegates and the Cruz delegates and the people, the millions and millions of people who supported Mr. Trump in winning. So why put his future opportunity at stake in a race that he most likely couldn't win? And if Ryan is looking towards 20 or 2024, he's done a fantastic thing for his future opportunities.

BALDWIN: Ryan Williams, what do you think?

RYAN WILLIAMS, FORMER ROMNEY SPOKESMAN: Look, I think this is why -- I think speaker Ryan demonstrated why people wanted him to run for president. He was an adult. He talked about policy. He talked about a vision forward for the country. It was a great speech. He also made it very clear which he had already done before that he is not running for president. This is not his year. He is not going to interfere. He does not want any part of the talk that some in the party and media and leaks have put out ending a shadow candidate. It is just not going to happen.

So I thought it was a good speech. I think he, hopefully, clarified once and for all. This is not happening this year. And he can get back to his day job as speaker, trying to pass the budget, trying to solve the debt crisis in Puerto Rico and all the other things that he has on his agenda. BALDWIN: Go ahead.

BORGER: You know what? I think what Paul Ryan would like to do and Margaret was talking about this earlier is he would like to be the person who actually sets the agenda for the party. I mean, he is at odds, say, with Donald Trump. Paul Ryan's a big budget guy. Wants to fix entitlements. Cares about that. And you have Donald Trump saying he wants to preserve Social Security the way it is, among other things. Well, they disagree. They disagree. Polar opposites. They do. And so on issue after issue, the question about Muslims coming into the country, the temporary ban, he cannot and disagreed.

I think what Ryan would like to do is set an agenda that his candidates can run on. If they don't love Donald Trump or Ted Cruz or John Kasich, whoever the nominee is, then there can be the Ryan plan and they can say to their constituents, I'm running on the Ryan plan. And he may not be running but this is what I believe. He needs to give them a place to go if they can't fully sign on as a candidate.

[15:35:37] MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: This is - I mean, Gloria makes a great point. This is the flirtation that conservatives and Republicans have had with the third party candidate that's sort of an independent protest candidate in the event that Donald Trump gets it because the effect of a Donald Trump nomination on the down ballot. Look at -- ask Rob Portman or Mark Kirk or Kelly Ayotte or any of the other seven blue state Republican senators who are up to lose their seats because people are going to come out so strongly, they feel, in their states against Donald Trump and the top of the ticket does hurt them. And so, if speaker Ryan can say, no, this is what the Republican Party stands for, not what you're hearing from potential nominee, Donald Trump, that potential could serve a really productive leadership role.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As you know, it is almost impossible in a presidential year to disassociate yourself from the top of the ticket. It is very, very hard to do.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They're running campaigns of split balloting, that's what's happening.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it's somewhat easier for senators than house members.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: True.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But it is a very tough thing to do. We have just seen that time and again. And also, remember, Democrats would say, hey, we have a playbook, we know how to run against the Ryan plan. We have been doing that for several cycles. I'm not suggesting that (INAUDIBLE). I'm just saying they have a playbook unlike -- they don't have playbook for Donald Trump at all right now. But running against the Ryan plan is something that I think the Democrats would not shy away from.

BORGER: But you know, the poverty agenda for example is something he has really been pushing now which is very much like Kasich, you know, in a way talking about poverty. But I do think even though obviously the top of the ticket is what matters the most, if you were running away from the top of the ticket, which some candidates might do, they have to have somewhere to go. And they have to say, particularly if they're in the house. He's my speaker. I voted for him for speaker and this is what I agree with. It gives them a little sort of running room I think, you know. The president is the most important person running, the presidential candidate, but you want to offer him a lot of options to your candidates if you want to keep him, right?

BALDWIN: John, Margaret mentioned Kelly Ayotte which also just reminded of Manu's reporting about how we have also learned that a number of top Republicans will not go to the convention in Cleveland, Kelly Ayotte will be one of them. He said he bumped in to Jeb Bush today on Capitol Hill. Jeb Bush isn't going. They all have different reasons. How big of a deal is that?

KING: It is a huge deal. Look. They're afraid in the short term of the mess. That if they are riots, if there are disruptions, even if it's not violence, if it is just a mess that they don't want a picture of them inside the auditorium, then a picture outside being (INAUDIBLE).

Kelly Ayotte is part of this. She's part of Donald Trump. You know, they don't want those ads number one. So they just think it's safe to keep your distance from something that's unpredictable, something that's messy, something that could end up in an opposition campaign ad. Stay home, cater to the local voters, be the smart one to do that. Just stay home and stay away from it. I think that is the best policy.

And Paul Ryan doesn't have that choice because as speaker of the house, he has agreed, you know, it is officially his job anyway, but he has agreed to be the speaker and to broker the event. So those candidates will make those decisions. Paul Ryan will tell this is more of a Senate calculation than house calculation. But Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell will tell those who think they should stay at home, please, by all means, stay at home, and then Paul Ryan will do the best job he can at the convention.

And to the point you've been discussing with those three smart people you have right next to you there, Brooke.

BALDWIN: They are quite smart.

KING: You are pretty smart yourself. You know, Paul Ryan gets this. He gets it. He has a difficult job at the convention. He is going to try to do the best thing possible. He has already had one conversation with Donald Trump. If Trump is the nominee, he is going to try to get Trump to accept as much of the house platform, at least as he is willing to accept, right. And then he is going to try to protect his house majority. And he is also protecting himself. Paul Ryan thinks the decision is the best to protect his members in the house and best to protect his future.

BALDWIN: John King, Ryan Williams, Gloria Borger, David Chalian, Margaret Hoover, Lou Garguilo, thank you all so much. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Coming up next, this year's Republican convention looking more and more like it will be one for the history books and we have the woman who writes them with us. We have presidential historian (INAUDIBLE). She will join me live to talk about what to expect in Cleveland and looking back to learn about the present.

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[15:44:09] BALDWIN: As topic of the Republican convention heats up, as we just been discussing for the last 20 or so minutes, you know, the debate is really turning to technicalities. And in particular, the number of votes each candidate has gotten versus the number of delegates they are racking up.

You have heard Donald Trump call the system, his word is rigged. He told his supporters they are getting ripped off. The Republican frontrunner points out he has nearly two million more votes than Ted Cruz. Yet if Trump doesn't capture the 1,237 delegates before the Republican Convention in July, he could lose the nomination.

So joining me now, the presidential historian and Pulitzer surprise winning author Doris Kerns Goodwin, always a pleasure and an honor to have you on. Welcome back.

DORIS KERNS GOODWIN, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: You are welcome to be here. Me too.

BALDWIN: Let me just ask you first. Just -- we talk about this people grave every four years, the electoral college, you know, given the history of the system, do you think these checks and balances, the delegates, the superdelegates are they there for a reason?

[15:45:08] GOODWIN: I do think so. I mean, I think what the party has done and the party used to be able to control the conventions. I mean, if this were 50 years ago, the party leaders probably would have chosen Paul Ryan as the person who can bring consensus to the party itself. But overtime, the primaries develop, they became more and more powerful people felt this is us voting, so that tension still exists between the party wanting to make sure it can bring out a candidate who can win in the fall and the ordinary people who voted in the primaries feeling our vote should count. And that's where the super delegates come in. That's part of the power they reserved with the superdelegates. They reserved the power to decide who those delegates could be. And they have reserve the power if on the first ballot the first person doesn't get it then people are free in some places to vote whomever they want and then the deals will get made.

BALDWIN: The deals, oh, the deals. The last contested convention, Doris, took place in 1976. It was Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan. They failed to clinch that nomination, that magic number. I mean, you know, just reading about it, melees in the hall, I think, you know, Kissinger was counting drunk delegates. What happened then?

GOODWIN: Well, what happened was that ford started out winning the primaries. Then Reagan came in and had a really good string of wins before the election so you had a split in the Republican Party between the conservatives represented by Reagan and the more moderate forces recommended by ford. And the delegates were really mad at each other and they would fight each other in the hotel lobbies, as you were saying, they were drunk, there was an elephant that was supposed to be the symbol of the Republican party, a 55-foot inflatable elephant and it went up in the air and it's stomach was ripped apart, almost like a metaphor of what was happening. But eventually, on the first ballot Ford did win. But then Reagan made this extraordinary elegant speech and that was the beginning of his presidential time.

BALDWIN: So from that time, from 1976, we all know now Donald Trump has hired veteran Paul Manafort who is now his convention manager. He then helped lead, you know, Ford's floor operations, will be leading the delegate operation in Cleveland. What kind of advantage, Doris, do you think this will give Mr. Trump?

GOODWIN: I think it's a huge, huge thing, as he would say, and that what's happened in the delegate selection so far is that Mr. Cruz has been much more sophisticated, had party organizers on the field to ring delegates out of some of those elections where Trump thought he might have deserved them. But now having a party leader, a veteran on the floor, suppose the first ballot doesn't produce the first majority. And it's at that point when you make sure that your Trump people remain loyal, you make deals to get other people to come to your side, and that's not something Trump can know how to do from the outside in. It has to be done by a loyal veteran. And I think this man will be the one who knows how to do it. He has been there before. The party leaders know what it was like when they used to have more power and they are going to try to exert it at this point. But he'll be Trump's man fighting against some of those other party leaders.

BALDWIN: You say deals being done. What kind of deals on the side will be done?

GOODWIN: Well, you know, I think part of it will be hanging on who might become the vice president, what state delegation, have some of the states have freedom after the first ballot, some states have freedom right away to decide what to do. I think it will be if it's really close, as it might be, individual rooms, everybody being visited in those rooms.

You know, way back in 1912 when you had the Republican party split in two between the sitting president Taft and Teddy Roosevelt, the former president, people would be actually slugging each other in the lobbies. They would be hitting each other. They would be singing songs to drown out the other people. So it was violent. There were thousands of policemen there, you know. There were people arrested. And eventually, the party split apart and Teddy Roosevelt said, as Trump has been saying, it's rigged, it's not fair. He walked out of the convention, formed the third party, which is something that people might predict might happen if Trump doesn't get it. And of course, the lesson of the Republican Party was they will be a lot of votes as the third party candidate more than anyone else. They split the Republican Party in two. And the Democrats won as a minority party. They won over these two Republicans fighting each other. BALDWIN: Wow. Hopefully we learned our lessons from the past.

Doris Kerns Goodwin, please come back. Please come back, as we look ahead --

GOODWIN: I'd be glad to. It is fun. The history part is fun.

BALDWIN: It's fascinating, 100 percent. Thank you so much. We will talk again.

Meantime, just reminder to all of you, Donald Trump and his family will take to the stage tonight in New York. It's a town hall format. It's moderated by Anderson Cooper. So tune in for that. And then tomorrow night, the Cruz family will be interviewed as well. Both Ted and Heidi Cruz. Both begin at 9:00 eastern only here on CNN.

Coming up next, the cozy relationship between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump before they were political rivals. Find out what is in the 500 documents just released by the Clinton library.

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[15:54:14] BALDWIN: Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, they are political adversaries now. But a trove of newly released documents reveals a long history between the two power brokers. Not all of it quite as quickly as their reactions out and about on the campaign trail.

So, CNN politics reporter Jeremy Diamond has been digging and digging through all of these documents now provided today by the Clinton presidential library. This is through an information request.

Jeremy Diamond, tell me what you found.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Well, Brooke, we found interesting things. You know, first of all, Bill Clinton's White House also had to address questions about what Donald Trump presidential run would look like, what it would mean. You know, the president Clinton's aides prepared him before series of -- before a press conference and before an interview in October of 1999 for potential questions about Donald Trump presidential run. Of course, this was but was president Clinton, you know, had several scandals and the questions were essentially preparing Clinton to answer, you know, how these scandals essentially impacted you. Is this what has brought Donald Trump to run for president. That was when Donald Trump first announced explorer to committee run in October 1999 for the reform party is what he was considering then.

We also considerations of a birthday card potentially being sent from President Clinton to Donald Trump. That was also consideration. That's something that shows the long standing relationship that there has been between the Clintons and the Trumps. Of course, today, that relationship has completely changed.

Today, you have, of course, Donald Trump referring to Bill Clinton as one of the worst abusers of women. He has referred to Hillary Clinton as enabler. We see now how much that -- Clintons and Trumps were a little bit cozy -- Brooke.

[15:56:03] BALDWIN: OK. Jeremey Diamond, I think the audio is not entirely awesome so I will let you go. But it will be interesting to see exactly who benefits or, you know, is hurt more from this, whether it is the Clintons or Donald Trump.

Quick reminder, Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders going head to head Thursday night in Brooklyn. We will be there live. Quick break. We are back after this.

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