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Trump on Newly Resurfaced Recording: It's Not Me; Bill Clinton: Hillary Facing Attacks Like I Did in '92; Former Clinton Aide: Trump Can Win "Pretty Damn Easily"; U.S. Official: ISIS Declares State of Emergency. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired May 13, 2016 - 19:00   ET


[19:00:08] ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: OUTFRONT next, Trump says it wasn't me. The presumptive nominee denies posing as his own publicist and talking himself up. The reporter who broke the story OUTFRONT.

Plus, Donald Trump doubling down saying his tax rate is none of your business. Can he get away with it?

And this morning from a Clinton loyalist, Trump could win the election, quote, "pretty damn easily." We do the math. Let's go OUTFRONT.

Good evening. I'm Erin Burnett. OUTFRONT tonight, Trump's denial. Donald Trump denying it's his voice on a recording released today by "The Washington Post." The audio, a phone conversation between a reporter and a man calling himself John Miller. A man who claims to be a publicist working for Trump.


UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: How are you? What's your name again?

JOHN MILLER: John Miller.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: And you work with Mr. Trump?

MILLER: Yes, that's correct.


BURNETT: The tape reportedly made 25 years ago. Many listening to this recording then and now say it's clear the man calling himself John Miller is, in fact, Donald Trump. Here, the caller is talking about Trump's latest affair which came shortly after his breakup with Marla Maples.


MILLER: He didn't leave Marla for her. He just wants (INAUDIBLE) -- he does things for himself. He leaves for himself. He does things for himself. He, when he makes the decision, that will be a very lucky woman. Off the record he probably felt Martha wasn't the right one, or whatever.


BURNETT: Trump addressing the audiotape in a phone interview on the "Today" show.



DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I don't think -- I don't know anything about it. You're telling me about it for the first time. And it doesn't sound like my voice at all.


BURNETT: Sara Murray is OUTFRONT tonight. Sara, silence from the Trump campaign today on this issue. Silence.

SARA MURRAY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Erin. Aside from Donald Trump saying that was not his voice on the tape, we've reached out to the Trump campaign to say, OK, can you tell us who John Miller was? Can you prove that he ever worked for Donald Trump? We have not heard back. And Erin, what this really is is a story about Donald Trump that has sort of been fostered for decades in the New York media, in the tabloids but is now getting increased scrutiny now that he's the presumptive GOP nominee.


MURRAY (voice-over): In an election season that already seemed unreal, Donald Trump has trumped himself again. Today he's denying that he used to pose as his own spokesman in conversations like this one from 1991.

MILLER: Marla wants to be back with him. She wants to be with him. He just feels it's too soon.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: What about the ring?

MILLER: Well, there was never an engagement ring.

MURRAY: The audio obtained by "The Washington Post" reveals the purported Trump rep dishing on the phone about Trump's relationship with model and future wife Marla Maples. Discussing his marital inclinations.

MILLER: I can tell you this, just off the record, there's no way he gets married without a prenuptial agreement.


MILLER: You understand that. It was painful but worked in the Ivana case.

MURRAY: And boasting about -- from other women.

MILLER: He's somebody that has a lot of options. And frankly, he gets called by everybody. He gets called by everybody in the book, in terms of women.

MURRAY: The spokesman calls himself John Miller.

MILLER: By the way, I'm sort of new here.

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: What is your position?

MILLER: Well, I'm sort of handling PR because he gets so much of it.

MURRAY: And today, Trump is insisting that's not his voice on the tape.

TRUMP: No it was not me on the phone. It was not me on the phone. And it doesn't sound like me on the phone. I will tell you that. And it was not me on the phone. And when was this, 25 years ago?

MURRAY: But their voices and verbal ticks sound awfully familiar.

MILLER: I can tell you this.

TRUMP: I can tell you this.

MILLER: You understand that.

TRUMP: You understand that.

MILLER: Probably doing as well as anybody.

TRUMP: I know politics as well as anybody.

I hold up the bible as well as anybody.

MURRAY: The billionaire businessman's affinity for posing under aliases like John Miller and John Barron has often been fodder for magazines, newspapers and even books. In one such biography, "Never Enough: Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success," the author says it's a habit that runs in the family. Barron was a character out of Fred Trump's book. In his day, Fred used the name Mr. Green to hide his identity. Trump admitted in court testimony in 1990 that he's been known to go by John Barron. These days, another family member has dibs on the name. Barron Trump, Donald's 10-year-old son. The spokesman drama was just one of Trump's testy exchanges today. The other as the billionaire holds his ground on refusing to release his tax return.


TRUMP: It's none of your business. You'll see it when I release. But I fight very hard to pay as little tax as possible.


MURRAY: Now, Erin, while Trump was dealing with all these dramas in the media, there was some actual campaign work going on in here Cleveland. This is where his top aides were visiting to begin laying the groundwork for a convention that Donald Trump says wants to be more like a showbiz feel and less like a traditional stodgy GOP convention we've seen in the past. Back to you.

BURNETT: All right. Sara, thank you very much from Cleveland. I want to go to Drew Griffin now. And Drew, you had a chance to speak to yet another reporter who often dealt with Trump. She said he made calls like this all the time.

[19:05:16] DREW GRIFFIN, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: A couple of reporters actually, Erin. It turns out this has been kind of an open secret and a big joke in New York among the media there. One daily news reporter said back in the '80s and into the '90s this person posing as Donald Trump would call with various tips on where Donald Trump could be found at a club hanging out with very gorgeous woman or Donald Trump's movements that day trying to get Donald Trump into the papers. She says, she knew it was Trump all along and laughed about it.

And then even in 2004 when he started his show "The Apprentice," The New York Daily News TV editor there said he would get a mysterious call from a guy named John talking about how great the ratings were on "The Apprentice" and that Donald Trump was probably the best host there ever was.

BURNETT: All right.

GRIFFIN: So, it's been going on for a while.

BURNETT: Which either there's humor in this. But he did point blank obviously deny it now, you know. So, taking a new level of seriousness to it saying it was not me. If Donald Trump actually had someone working for him named John Miller or John Barron, it would be pretty easy, right, for them to just tell us. Here he is. Here's his phone number.

GRIFFIN: Yes. I mean, joking aside, this is where I put on my investigative reporters' cap and I called the campaign and I tried to reach Alan Garten (ph), his attorney and I said, look guys. If this people exist, if John Barron and John Miller exist, certainly you have records of them. Let us know where they are, let us know where they do exist and we'll call them and check it out. We have gotten zero call as Sara has gotten zero call back from the campaign. So, I mean, this is either true or false. Right now it's limbo. So, we'll just wait and see -- Erin.

BURNETT: All right. Drew Griffin, thank you very much.

And I want to go now to Marc Fisher, the senior editor at "The Washington Post." He is the one who obtained these tapes. He's writing a book about Donald Trump. So, Mark, let's just start with the very basic question. How did you get these tapes, and when did they come into your possession?

MARC FISHER, WASHINGTON POST SENIOR EDITOR, OBTAINED ALLEGED TRUMP TAPES: Just got them earlier this week. A friend of mine who knew that I was working on the book called me up and said, would you be interested in a tape showing Donald Trump posing as someone else, as his own publicist? And I said, yes, I actually would. And so, he sent a digitized form of the recording to me. This is a recording that the source -- the original source had gotten from the "People" magazine reporter back in 1991 on a microcassette which was the way reporters recorded conversations in those days. And that microcassette sat in the drawer of the source's desk for many years until now.


FISHER: And so when we received it, we don't know the name of that source but we did check with the "People" magazine reporter and she confirmed that this indeed was the conversation she had with John Miller, or Donald Trump.

BURNETT: Right. And, of course, you know, all jokes aside, even though Donald Trump did directly deny this today. You know, "The Washington Post" actually, you had your team, they were talking to Trump, asked him about it again today. What happened in that conversation?

FISHER: Well, some of our reporters were discussing Donald Trump's finances with him today for a separate article. And at the end of the conversation, they had a few questions left and they asked him, did you ever employ someone by the name of John Miller? At that point the phone line went silent and then dead. And when our reporters called Mr. Trump's office back, they spoke to his secretary who said, I'm sorry, the line went dead. And Mr. Trump is no longer available.

BURNETT: So just trying to understand here exactly what happened. When he was -- what you just say there, I mean, you know, the hanging up the phone, he was also asked about this on NBC this morning. Here's how he answered it directly there.


TRUMP: It was not me on the phone. And it doesn't sound like me on the phone. I will tell you that. And it was not me on the phone. And when was this, 25 years ago?

GUTHRIE: In their early '90s but --



TRUMP: You mean, you're going so low as to talk about something that took place 25 years ago about whether or not I made a phone call? I guess you are saying under a presumed name?

GUTHRIE: Yes, under a presumed name.

TRUMP: OK. Well, OK, the answer is no.


BURNETT: Marc, has he admitted though in depositions to using pseudonyms like the one that he used in the conversation you have, that that was of course John Miller.

FISHER: Yes. In the 1990 court case, he gave a deposition in which he said he did used the name John Barron. He uses both the names John Miller and John Barron. We've also spoken to at least half a dozen New York editors and reporters from that era who received calls from Donald Trump posing as John Miller or John Barron. In addition, we've spoken to several former executives, high ranking executives of the Trump organization who told us that they heard they were there in the office when Donald Trump made calls to news organizations as John Barron.

BURNETT: So they actually did. All right. Stay with me.

I want to bring in Paul Ginsberg, forensic audio expert. You of course Paul have consulted with the CIA, the FBI, the Secret Service, you have listened to the tape. I want to play another brief clip of it for you.



[19:10:14] MILLER: Ivana wants to get back with Donald but she --

UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Really? After saying on Barbara Walters that she never would?

MILLER: What is she going to say? What is she going to say? She's going to say when he's somebody else and had other people lined up, is she going to say, yes, I want to get back, I want to get back. You know, she's a pretty savvy woman and she's not going to say, I mean, he's living with and he's got three other girlfriends. And she's not going to say -- all right, I really want to get back. You know? She wants to get back. She's told it to a lot of her friends, and she's told it to him, but it's so highly unlikely. That's off the record. He left. I mean, it was his choice to leave and he left.


BURNETT: Now, I know the quality of this recording is very poor but when you hear this, what do you think?

GINSBERG: I think that Mr. Miller knows more about Mr. Trump than Mr. Trump does. That's number one. The recording quality is very low and Marc confirmed that this was a microcassette which I had found in my lab. This was an acoustical recording made by holding a microcassette near a speaker phone --


GINSBERG: -- and then after years and years passed, playing it back on a machine that was malfunctioning and buzzing and humming and all that. So forensically, we can't say too much, so we have to look at the voice the way we do for Jihadi John. We have to look at the words he uses. The phrases. Idioms, his speed and so on. And also with Mr. Trump, the content. BURNETT: Right. And on that, it is strikingly similar.

GINSBERG: Right. He never -- despite being questioned several times, he never says where he works. Or how he knows Mr. Trump. He just says I'm doing this for a little while and then I'm going to move on. He goes into detail. He knows everything about every topic posed to him without any pause.

BURNETT: Yes. So let me just play to your point about how he sounds, his cadence, the words he uses. We actually put together Donald Trump in that phone call, so all of our viewers know, and then we put it together with the Donald Trump and Donald Trump that the country now knows from the past few months. And so you yourself could hear does he use the same words, the same cadence, the same idioms. Here it is.


MILLER: I can tell you this.

TRUMP: I can tell you this.

MILLER: Probably doing as well as anybody --

TRUMP: I know politics as well as anybody.

I hold up the Bible as well as anybody.

MILLER: You understand that.

TRUMP: You understand that.

MILLER: Starting to do tremendously well.

TRUMP: She did tremendously well.

MILLER: He paid his wife a great deal of money.

TRUMP: You'll see a great deal of cooperation.


BURNETT: That's pretty incredible.

GINSBERG: Good work. You people could work for the CIA.


GINSBERG: I mean, when you hear that, Marc, I mean, it is pretty stunning. I think the one that really hits home is tremendously.

FISHER: Yes. And these words, you know, obviously, there's kinds of the verbal ticks that Donald Trump uses that the whole nation now knows. But back in the day, back in 1991 when the Sue Carswell, the "People" magazine reporter was suspicious and she thought, yes, maybe I am talking to Donald Trump, even though he says his name is John Miller, she called Donald Trump's then wife Marla Maples on the phone and played the tape for her and Marla Maples immediately burst into tears and said, yes, that is Donald Trump. And she was deeply dismayed at some of the things he was saying on that recording about her.

BURNETT: All right. Thank you both very much.

And next, a Clinton loyalist says Democrats who think Trump is a joke do so at their own peril. Ahead the math, Trump's path to victory.

Plus Trump's longtime butler under investigation for making death threats against President Obama. Who are the others surrounding Donald Trump.

And breaking news, ISIS declaring a State of Emergency tonight. A live report coming up.


[19:17:24] BURNETT: Tonight Donald Trump says it's none of your business. The Republican frontrunner asked today about his tax returns again. Returns he says he will release eventually. So, he was asked today, what's your tax rate, and here's how he answered the question.


TRUMP: It's none of your business. You'll see it when I release. But I fight very hard to pay as little tax as possible.


BURNETT: OUTFRONT tonight, Trump supporters Kayleigh McEnany and Pastor Mark Burns. Former communications director for Senator Ted Cruz. Amanda Carpenter and the editor-in-chief of "The Daily Beast" John Avlon.

Kayleigh, let me start with you, look, everybody should try to pay as little tax as they can. That's what the tax statutes are for. There is nothing wrong with that. But why not just answer the question, what tax rate does he have to pay? This was a very big issue for Mitt Romney when this finally came out?

KAYLEIGH MCENANY, DONALD TRUMP SUPPORTER: And I think he looks to Mitt Romney and that's a cautionary tale. Because here's the thing. Obama coerced Mitt Romney into releasing his tax returns. Mitt Romney released them. They discovered he had a Swiss Bank account. Perfectly legal and perfectly okay but that was used to beat him over the head and paint him as a one percenter. So, that's a cautionary tale. And then by the way the Obama administration wasn't satisfied, they wanted more than two years' worth of tax returns. So, if I'm Donald Trump, I'm not releasing my taxes.

JOHN AVLON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "THE DAILY BEAST": But Mitt Romney is one of those people saying he should release his taxes. Mitt Romney is going out there saying, look, every candidate has done it for the last 40 years. It's the right thing to do. BURNETT: Donald Trump came out and told Mitt Romney he should release

his taxes.

MCENANY: And I don't think Donald Trump is looking to take advice from Mitt Romney who wants to see him fail at --

AVLON: I mean, the fundamental point here is that, he's hiding something, whether he doesn't make as much money as he says he does, the charitable giving is questionable. But if you are running solely on the basis of being a famous successful businessman and you've never held office before, then this is a necessary step to basic transparency and accountability.

MCENANY: You aren't going to put more information out there for liberals to beat you over the head and --

AVLON: This is not about ideology. This is about a simple insight into a core tribute of the person who says he's a successful, charitable giver.

MCENANY: The release of Mitt Romney tax returns were the beginning of the end for Mitt Romney. That was the beginning of Mitt Romney, the Swiss Bank account, he's the one percenter.

AVLON: If he shows it's a 14 percent or lower, he's either lying about how wealthy he is in terms of his income, or it's a rigged system which we all know it is and we actually have that conversation.

BURNETT: Amanda?

AMANDA CARPENTER, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR SEN. TED CRUZ: Yes. There shouldn't be a standard where candidates don't participate in public disclosure so that the public who knows how they made their money and conducted themselves in public life just because Mitt Romney -- made the news against Mitt Romney. That certainly wasn't the reason he lost. He certainly wasn't coerced into doing so. Usually candidates come around to making the decision that this is an act of good faith that they should participate in. So the public can vet them appropriately so the public knows how they made their money, so the public can ensure that there's no conflict of interest when they assume the most powerful office on earth.

BURNETT: Pastor Burns, I mean, isn't there a sign you said for that Donald Trump should put his tax returns out because, as John points out, not just because everybody has done it since 1976. Not because of that. Necessarily, that's a big reason, but because he is running on trust me, I know how to run a business. I'm successful. It's the core of who he is and his candidacy, isn't it?

PASTOR MARK BURNS, DONALD TRUMP SUPPORTER: Well, you know, I'm going to be honest. And I'm going to go off the cuff here. You may never have me back on again, but I don't even understand why we're even talking about Donald Trump's tax returns when in reality, we really should be talking about how the narrative of Donald Trump being racist, as bigot who hates Muslims and hates women when you have the leader of the nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan singing praises to Donald Trump. I don't understand why that news hasn't broken. I don't understand why we're not talking about that. Why isn't every news agency talking about the leader of the Black Muslim, the largest Black Muslim organization in this country, Louis Farrakhan --


BURNS: -- the leader of the nation of Islam singing praises to the, you know, Donald Trump's temporary ban on Muslims. We should be talking about that rather than talking about tax returns.

BURNETT: All right, look. His issue -- his changing position on his Muslim ban which by the way he seems to be softening a little bit, that's a fair and important conversation. At this moment though, we do want to talk about taxes and also about those tapes to the extent that this goes to character and if someone is really what they say they are. And Kayleigh, on this issue of taxes, this is a crucial question. He is running as a successful businessman. So it is really OK to say -- he is going to be able to hide behind this for six months? He's got six months where you'd have to come on TV saying, don't do it.

MCENANY: He's not hiding behind anything. He's just not going to make the same failed mistakes. Because this is the thing, when media coerces you into releasing your taxes, the liberals coerce you. Last time I checked, you shouldn't take advice from liberals on how to run your campaign. That's exactly what Mitt Romney did. That's why he failed. That was the beginning of the end. He does not need to release his taxes. End of story. Clinton, if she doesn't want to release her speeches, don't release her speeches.

BURNETT: They already know that he's rich. They know that his taxes -- his tax rate will be low. I mean, they already know. That will not be a shock.

MCENANY: But here's the thing. You have a document that says, this is why your net worth is. This is what you're making. This is a Swiss Bank account that's perfectly legal but Hillary Clinton is going to use it to try to paint you as out of touch with the people who you represent to --


[19:22:29] AVLON: Hillary Clinton has released 30 years of taxes, right? And it's not just about liberals or conservatives. This is about a common standard that applies to everyone who has run for president for the last 40 years. And if your guy is saying that he's an enormously successful businessman and gives enormous amounts to charity, then this is a simple step. It's not about ideology. It's not about transparency. And if you are not doing it, it's because you're hiding something. Let's be real.

MCENANY: This is really going to hurt Donald Trump so much, we should be happy, because this is what you need to topple Trump.

BURNS: No, that's not the point.

BURNETT: Go ahead.

BURNS: Yes. He's also made it very clear that he's going to release those taxes. You know, right now he's in the middle of an audit. So, who releases taxes in the middle of an audit? He's made it clear. Let's move on.

BURNETT: Amanda?

CARPENTER: Well, I got to say. I'm really disturbed by the fact that we are maybe setting a standard where candidates don't have to act trans -- in a transparent fashion.

BURNS: Absolutely.

CARPENTER: We're talking about a man or woman assuming the most powerful office on earth. Yes, we should see what Hillary Clinton told the Goldman Sachs audience for money. Yes, we should see how Donald Trump made his money. And I'm very worried that both candidates running on the Republican and Democratic side feel like they don't have to participate in these disclosures.

MCENANY: But here is the thing. If Donald Trump has done something so wrong with his taxes, he's been through several audits. That's what the IRS is for, the IRS to be the watchdog with regard to your taxes. So, if he's done something so terrible, so awful on his taxes, he'd be in jail.

CARPENTER: Here's the thing --


MCENANY: He's been audited several times, Amanda.

CARPENTER: We should be able to see that he understands it. And I think it has actually worked out very well for him. He could roll us out and say, look, I've employed so many people. Look at all these regulations I have to comply with --


CARPENTER: Look at all these lawyers, I have to deal with. He could use it to his advantage. But it looks like he's hiding something.

BURNETT: Now, before we go to that point, this issue of the tapes. OK? And I want to bring them up because, yes, they talk about it being a running joke in New York gossip columnists that used to call under pseudonyms, that that was a joke in New York. Of course today though he went on the "Today" show and he point blank and said it was not him, but he did not do it. Which gives us a new level of seriousness. OK? So, we put together, I want to replay it, him and those tapes, or the John Miller in those tapes as that man was called and Donald Trump today. Play this all for you again.


MILLER: I can tell you this -- TRUMP: I can tell you this.

MILLER: He is probably doing as well as anybody --

TRUMP: I know politics as well as anybody.

I hold up the Bible as well as anybody.

MILLER: You understand that.

TRUMP: You understand that.

MILLER: Starting to do tremendously well.

TRUMP: She did tremendously well.

MILLER: He paid his wife a great deal of money.

TRUMP: You'll see a great deal of cooperation.


BURNETT: John, the significance of this, though, of course, is that he's saying it wasn't him.

AVLON: Yes, and he's lying. Let's just be really honest about that. He's lying. Yes. He has said in depositions in the past that he calls people pseudonyms under John Barron or John Miller. It's clearly him on the tapes. We have a history of this. If you are believing, this is not even the fact that the Trump campaign is not calling anyone back now is because they know their guy lied on the record and they don't know what to do about it and they are hoping this will pass. But let's be really honest, if the law -- you get a law degree in a couple of weeks and that's just awesome and that's a search for the truth. Can you honestly tell me that you think that Donald Trump is not this guy given the depositions where he admits to using pseudonyms?

MCENANY: Hold on. Let's be honest and let's look at the fact. There's a deposition where he admits to using the name John Barron.


MCENANY: Correct.

AVLON: Right.

MCENANY: This sounds like him, correct. But A plus B does not equal C.


AVLON: Do you really -- do you believe this is not him?

MCENANY: The only fact that we have here --

BURNS: And I want to say this. I want to jump in here --

MCENANY: There is no categorical proof that this is Donald Trump. For "The Washington Post" to come on and make their headline, Donald Trump masquerades as publicist? That is the biggest breach of journalist --

AVLON: No, it's not.

BURNS: I want to say this -- if I can jump in here?


BURNETT: Let me just put a question to you. If it is him, OK? And they can determine that more than our viewers made --

BURNS: Absolutely not.

BURNETT: Hold on. Let me just ask you the question. As a diehard supporter of his, would it upset you that if it is proven to be him that he did, in that case lie this morning on the "Today" show.

BURNS: Well, you know, I absolutely don't think it's Donald Trump. I 100 percent don't think it's Donald Trump. As a leader myself I do understand this, that people who are close to you, people who surround you, it is really easy for people to naturally, especially if they look up to you, and I have sons and daughters of the ministry who listen to every words that I say and they listen to -- they watch my life. They watch how I handle business, and it is a natural progression for people who look up to you or work closely with you for long periods of time to naturally start to sound like you.

So I hear the sound bites and now hear how CNN is really trying to parallel the person from 25 years ago, which is a horrible recording, by the way, and Donald Trump of today and you're trying to easily parallel the two people as the same people when absolutely that's not the case. I think it's easily for people to easily -- easy to start to try to sound like Donald Trump, especially if you -- secondly, Donald Trump is probably one of the most interpreted people there is in America. People interpret Donald Trump then and they interpret him now.


BURNS: So, absolutely not Donald Trump.

[19:27:30] BURNETT: All right. Thank you all very much.

And OUTFRONT next, how does Donald Trump get to the White House? Election expert Larry Sabato on why it may be completely out of Trump's control. But wait until you see this electoral map.

And among those supporting Donald Trump, the butler. We'll going to have more on that and whether that will hurt him with voters. That's coming up after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK [19:31:47] ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, the Clintons gearing up for battle. Bill Clinton saying his wife is facing the same attacks he says he faced.


BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT: I did not get the numerical majority of delegates until I carried New Jersey and California. And believe it or not, I went through the same thing we're doing today. Heck, some of those right wingers were sending videos out accusing me of murder. You guys have forgotten this. Young people don't know this. This is just a replay of the same old '92 playbook.



And, Jeff, it sounds like the Clinton campaign is getting ready for an ugly general election and they're not even justifying why she's not going to even clinch the nomination potentially until June.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: No doubt. I mean, I think everyone is getting ready for an ugly election. I mean, President Clinton is right about the '92 playbook perhaps, but let's add a couple of things on to that.

There's 24 years of new material since 1992. The media has changed considerably since 1992. So there's so many forces coming together here between Donald Trump and the Clinton campaign that have so many years of finances, business dealings, recordings, other things. I mean, the last 24 hours have been a snapshot of what we're definitely going to see.

This is an opposition research election like none other perhaps and sort of a pity the poor voters here who want to talk about issues and substance.

BURNETT: So, is the Clinton campaign, though, as you've been talking to them, worried that Donald Trump is going to be successful at flipping some Democratic states that he could easily win this election?

ZELENY: The path to 270 is the only important thing to pay attention to for the next six months, Erin. The Clinton campaign is watching some of those states very carefully. In Michigan, for example, and Ohio, for example, maybe Pennsylvania, they believe that there are states this populist rhetoric is going to resonate.

But some Democrats believe the campaign is not paying enough attention. Let's look at a very interesting comment posted last night on Instagram from someone who used to work for Hillary Clinton, Jay Carson. He said, "Here's the bad news. This guy can actually win the general election pretty damn easily. I hear far too many of my liberal friends calling him a joke and acting like the general election is in the bag, which is nuts because he's dangerous and he has a path to victory. We underestimate this guy at our peril." So, those words there from a Democrat who is reminding his friends in the Clinton campaign to take him very seriously. But, Erin, every conversation I have with people inside the campaign, they are taking him seriously. They may not have six months or so ago, but he defeated a lot of pretty impressive Republicans. Now, they are taking him very seriously.

BURNETT: All right. Jeff Zeleny, thank you very much.

So, how does Donald Trump get to 270? That's the magic number. The founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Larry Sabato is OUTFRONT.

And, Larry, so you just heard the former Clinton operative saying Donald Trump could win this and easily. What is Trump's easiest path to 270?

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS: Erin, the easiest path of all is to carry the states that Mitt Romney carried in2012. That has a total of 206 electoral votes, and then add to that three states -- Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. That gets you to 273. It's the easiest way for Donald Trump to win if he can somehow do that.

BURNETT: And, of course, polls show, most recent polls which are six months out, but ahead in Ohio versus Hillary Clinton, but a dead heat when you look at Pennsylvania and you look at Florida.

Florida, of course, has correctly picked the winner in every presidential race since 1996. So, Larry, do you see a path for the presidency for Trump if he does not win Florida?

SABATO: Well, if you subtract Florida, then you really only have one real path to victory if you are Donald Trump. You have to go the blue collar route. You have to win the north central states with a high concentration of blue collar workers. And I'm talking about Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, added to the Romney states. What do you do when you ad all those together? You get exactly 270. Not one single vote to spare.

BURNETT: Wow, wow, incredible. That would mean winning Wisconsin, which he did not win in the primary. Ted Cruz won that. Now, finally, anything externally that could change this rubric that you've laid out?

SABATO: Absolutely. Two things that I can think of immediately, a recession. We're in the fourth longest expansion. It's not going to last forever. The laws of the economy have not been repealed. A surprise recession in the summer and fall may very well produce a Trump victory.

And second, while we don't like to talk about it, we hope it never happens, a significant terrorist event, especially domestically where the administration is held accountable in some way for inadequate preparation or response. That would also potentially produce a Trump presidency. BURNETT: All right. Larry, thank you very much. I always appreciate

having you on the show. Thanks again.

And, of course, 270, the big number.

Joining me now, John Avlon, our political analyst, editor of "The Daily Beast", is back.

All right. You just heard Larry lay out the most realistic path, of course, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Now, when we look at those Ohio polls, you have Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by a few points. Outside, right within, or just outside the margin of error.

Could he have an edge in November in Ohio?

JOHN AVLON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, THE DAILY BEAST: Look, a couple ever things about Ohio. Here's a place where white working class voters make a big difference. It's not a significantly diverse state, unlike, say, a Florida. Very high Hispanic population, as well as African-American.

So, if he's able to continue that appeal that he's shown in West Virginia, for example, some of that could blend over into that Appalachian region, the Allegheny region of western Pennsylvania and Ohio.

So that is a state where he's got a fighting chance, if he were to pick a John Kasich as VP. That could really make a difference. It's not going to be enough to do the math entirely but it will tip Ohio.

BURNETT: Deadheat Florida and Pennsylvania. Florida really a must- win in almost any scenario for Donald Trump. But this is also pretty stunning for Hillary Clinton. You just saw that former Clinton aide saying, hey, Democrats, if you're not taking this seriously, you better get with the program.

AVLON: That's a big deal. And Jay Carson's point is right on. Look, first of all, you always run a better campaign when you feel like you're running from behind. And the demographic map does favor Hillary Clinton. But if you take that for granted and dismiss Donald Trump's appeal, especially if there's an X-factor in the election, like Larry talked about, those are the kind of game changers you can't predict that make demographic math seem small in comparison because you have a moment and a movement.

And Donald Trump does better than Hillary Clinton. Put aside all the demographics, better with men, et cetera, on two issues. Who can better handle the economy? We saw that in our poll. And who can better handle terrorists?


AVLON: So if there is a sharp recession or God forbid a terrorist event in the fall, that could really change people's calculus the emotional way that overwhelms demographic math in these days.

BURNETT: All right. Thank you very much, John Avlon.

And next, a former butler under investigation for threatening President Obama. One of the questionable characters who is supporting Donald Trump. Our report coming up.

And the breaking news: ISIS declaring a state of emergency. We've got a late breaking story for you.


[19:43:19] BURNETT: Tonight, the Secret Service is investigating Donald Trump's longtime butler as he doubles down on his comments that President Obama should be killed.

Jessica Schneider with some of the other characters who surround the presumptive nominee.


JESSICA SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's a lineup of controversial characters and their comments are casting a cloud over Donald Trump. Eighty-four-year-old Anthony Senecal served as Trump's butler at his Mar-A-Lago estate for almost 30 years. The secret service is now investigating him after he posted this on Facebook saying President Obama should have been taken by our military and shot as an enemy agent in his first term.

CNN called Senecal and he confirmed he wrote the post which has since been taken down but then he said, "I'd prefer he be hung from the portico of the White House or as I call it, the white mosque."

Trump's campaign disavowed the comments and said Senecal hasn't worked there for many years. It's not the first time Trump has been forced to distance himself from controversial individuals.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Nothing in this country shocks me. I'd disavow it, but nothing in this country shocks me.

SCHNEIDER: That's Trump responding to Erin Burnett about a white nationalist super PAC that made robocalls for Trump in January, saying, "We don't need Muslims. We need smart, well educated white people who will assimilate to our culture. Vote Trump."

Trump's team was also forced to disavow a white supremacist who ended up on their delegates list in California. The campaign later saying it was a database error. The campaign fired political adviser Sam Numberg back in August for posting racial slurs on Facebook. And then there was an endorsement from the KKK's former grand wizard, David Duke.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Will you unequivocally condemn David Duke and say that you don't want his vote or that of other white supremacists in this election?

[19:45:02] TRUMP: Well, just so you understand, I don't know anything about dad Duke, OK? SCHNEIDER: Trump later blamed a bad earpiece for misunderstanding the

question and took to Twitter to disavow Duke.

MIKE TYSON, FORMER BOXING CHAMP: He should be president of the United States. That's what he should. He should be president of the United States.

SCHNEIDER: Former heavyweight champ and convicted rapist Mike Tyson threw Trump his support.

TRUMP: Mike Tyson endorsed me. I love him. He sent out a tweet. Mike, Iron Mike. You know, all the tough guys endorse me. I like that, OK?

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: I don't think rapists are tough guys. I think rapists are weak, they're bullies and they're cowards.

JULIAN ZELTZER, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, part of it is he's made his persona around being the irreverent candidate and saying what he wants, associating with whoever he wants. He might not do as well when facing Hillary Clinton in a general election. And that's when a lot of these comments and a lot of these connections come back to bite.


BURNETT: And now, Jessica, Trump, you know, turns some of this into a positive saying he's been loyal to people who have been good to him, especially in the case, for example, perhaps his butler.

SCHNEIDER: Well, exactly. He's able to balance this loyalty with also keeping people at a distance. He disavowed David Duke. His campaign staff said the butler is no longer working for him.

Maybe the perfect example is with Corey Lewandowski. Trump remained on Lewandowski's side even after he was arrested but charges were never brought. But Trump does, as he says, remain loyal.

BURNETT: Right. Certainly so.

All right. Jessica Schneider, thank you very much.

And OUTFRONT next, we're following the breaking news on ISIS, issuing a declaration of emergency. We're going to live to the Pentagon on that late-breaking news.

And Jeanne Moos on a new dating site for those who have sworn they'll move to Canada after the election.


[19:50:35] BURNETT: Breaking news: ISIS declaring a state of emergency. A U.S. official telling us this is taking place in the ISIS self-declared capital of Raqqah, in Syria. ISIS is supposedly moving fighters around the city, trying to shield possible targets from air strikes. Our Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr is OUTFRONT.

And, Barbara, we've never heard of this before. How significant is this that ISIS would declare as formally as they can do so, a state of emergency?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: U.S. officials are say it may be a sign that ISIS finally is just a little bit nervous, especially in Raqqah, a city they hold very dear, they've held on to it for a long time. It's their center of power.

Now, fighters being seen moving around the city, being seen leaving the city. Shield being put up to shield people. ISIS operatives from being attacked from the air, from land attack, they look around and they see militia movements moving in from both the east and the west.

And so, the sense that the U.S. has is that ISIS might actually be getting nervous that they believe there may be an assault on Raqqah in the coming weeks and months. The reality is, it may be a long way off, but the U.S. doesn't mind ISIS being nervous. The more they move around, the more those U.S. warplanes overhead may be able to target them.

BURNETT: So, Barbara, where does the U.S. think the biggest threat is from ISIS right now? You are talking about their self-declared capital. But in terms of where the threat is, where do they say?

STARR: Well, look, Syria and Iraq still remain a substantial threat. The threat of overseas attacks by people inspired by ISIS, we've seen it in Paris, we've seen it in Brussels, we've seen it in San Bernardino.

But there is a new front and that is Libya. There are now about 6,000 ISIS fighters in Libya and look for the U.S. military to very quietly step up U.S. action there. U.S. military teams have been going into Libya, trying to make contact with local militia movements, trying to figure out where ISIS fighters really are, and what might be done there to get at them inside Libya -- Erin.

BURNETT: Obviously, Barbara, that's a crucial thing in the election as well with Hillary Clinton and her role with the Benghazi and Libya, something that will certainly come up in the election.

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

STARR: Sure.

BURNETT: OUTFRONT next, Jeanne Moos on the dating sites for Never Trump types. They promise to make dating great again.


[19:56:49] BURNETT: Is voting for Donald Trump a dating deal breaker?

Well, Jeanne Moos found a new match making service inspired by Trump. Take a look. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): You may not think of Donald Trump as a matchmaker, but he could inspire cross border romance between Americans and Canadians if Maple Match ever gets off the ground with its catchy slogan.

JOE GOLDMAN, "MAPLE MATCH" CREATOR: Make dating great again.

MOOS: The website's mission, "Maple Match makes it easy for Americans to find the ideal Canadian partner to save them from the unfathomable horror of a Trump presidency." Austin, Texas, resident and Hillary supporter Joe Goldman dreamed up Maple Match.

GOLDMAN: I've always liked maple syrup. I have about 12 liters of maple syrup at home. I'm a real fan of the flavor.

MOOS: Joe says Maple Match started as a fun experiment, but within days 20,000 Americans had signed the wait list and 5,000 Canadians. Every day, the number grows.

Sure, people have been joking about moving.

JIMMY KIMMEL, LATE NIGHT TALK SHOW HOST: Will Donald Trump be our next president?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If that mother (EXPLETIVE DELETED) becomes president, I'm moving my black (EXPLETIVE DELETED) to South Africa.

MOOS: Miley Cyrus Instagramed, "gonna vom," as in vomit, "move out da country, #aintapartyindausaanymo."

Cher tweeted, "If Trump were to be elected, I'm moving to Jupiter." But some, like Lena Dunham, sounds serious.

LENA DUNHAM: That I'm 100 percent moving to Canada. I love Canada.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (voice-over): Well, she has a "B" actor and has no, you know, mojo.

MOOS: Maple Match has mojo in terms of generating interest.

MOOS (on camera): But don't expect immediate results. It looks like Maple Match will be as slow as, well, maple syrup.

MOOS (voice-over): Questions about when the site might work got vague answers.

(on camera): Joe, I'm sorry, it's like talking to Donald Trump. Is it ever going to be really like a dating site?

GOLDMAN: At this -- at this time I really can't say for sure. We're -- we're really trying our hardest.

MOOS (voice-over): Maple Match is asking who you'd like to shack up with before the shack is built. Jeanne Moos, CNN, New York.


BURNETT: Oh, Jeanne.

All right. This Sunday night on CNN, Anthony Bourdain is up in big Sky Country, "PARTS UNKNOWN: Montana". That's going to be an awesome. One state I haven't been to and am dying to see. That's Sunday at 9:00 Eastern and Pacific time here on CNN.

And on Monday, be sure to watch OUTFRONT. We will have a sneak peek of our of our special report, "Biker Brawl: Inside the Texas Shootout". It airs Monday night right here on CNN. We will have exclusive new footage for you of that shootout here on OUTFRONT.

Thank you so much for joining hope you have a wonderful weekend. We'll see you back here on Monday.

"AC360" with Anderson starts right now.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening. Thanks for watching.

Less than a day that Donald Trump went to Washington and calm Republican nerves, some Republicans may have reason to be jittery yet again. According to yesterday's meetings, the Capitol GOP leaders were concerned about the depth of his conservatism.