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Panelists, Supporters Discuss State of Presidential Campaigns; Death of Terrorist Leader Prompts Search for Successor; ISIS Takes Credit for Syrian Bombings; General Joseph Votel Takes CNN On Secret Journey into Syria. Aired 10:30-11:00a

Aired May 23, 2016 - 10:29   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:29:20]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: Can you expand on what he had to say in the dissent?

STEVE VLADECK, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Sure I mean, so Justice Thomas actually offered two different arguments in his dissent. The first was a technical one, that the court shouldn't even have taken this case because of the weird way it got to the Supreme Court from the Georgia State Courts. But substantively, Justice Thomas was basically saying that there was enough justification unrelated to race in the State's explanation.

And that the Supreme Court owes deference to the Georgia State Courts. And that there just wasn't quite enough evidence for the court to overturn the State Court's determination. I think that's really easily rebutted by the Chief Justice's majority opinion. But an interesting statement from the one black Justice on the current Supreme Court.

BROWN: OK, thank you so much for breaking it down for us. To our legal analyst and reporter, Ariane de Vogue, and Steve Vladeck, we do appreciate it. And we'll be right back with more after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well if the GOP comes together, Donald Trump could win, so says Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House and a lawmaker who's been very candid about his own differences with the presumptive GOP nominee. Well now Ryan is spelling out exactly what it will take for his Party to recapture the White House.

[10:35:25]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GLENN THRUSH, POLITICO (voice-over): Do you think he can really win?

REPRESENTATIVE PAUL RYAN, SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE (voice-over): Yes, sure, of course I do.

THRUSH (voice-over): Do you -- would you put in -- I mean, would you say if you were a betting man, would you say he's going to win? RYAN (voice-over): I'm not going to -- I'm not a betting man. So you

know, I think, I think if we get our Party unified, and if we do the work we need to do to get ourselves at full strength, and if we offer the country a clear and compelling agenda that is inspiring, that is inclusive, that fixes problems, that is solutions-based, and based on good principles, then yes, I think we can win. But I think that this is a we, not just one person. I think it's a we. This is a we effort.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: All right, joining me now to discuss this, Ron Brownstein, Senior Editor for the Atlantic, David Gergen, former Presidential Advisor to Ford, Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton, and Kayleigh McEnany, Trump supporter. Thank you to the three of you for coming on this Monday. A lot to discuss here. We have the new polls out, we have these comments from Paul Ryan. As you heard him say, David, the Party needs to unite, among other things, for Trump to be the next President. But he has yet to come out and fully endorse him. What do you make of his comments?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I think he's on the path to endorsing but he wants to encourage Donald Trump not only to embrace more of his agenda, but to change his tone of his campaign. To become "more Presidential." I think that's going to be one of the great tests for Trump in the next few months, is, how does he appeal -- how does he become more Presidential and bring in more Independent voters, for example, and more women. While at the same time retaining that kind of charismatic, "I don't give a damn, I'm going to say anything I please" spirit that has attracted a lot of people to him. You know, can he have it both ways?

BROWN: Well and you hear what Paul Ryan kind of listed off. These are the things that need to happen for Trump to win. Kayleigh, do you think he's going to do all of those things that we just heard Paul Ryan list off there? These lists of conditions that more or less contradict Trump's position thus far in the race?

KAYLEIGH MCENANY, TRUMP SUPPORTER: You know I have tremendous respect for the Speaker, but the point is I think, that voters put out there when they elected Donald Trump commandingly -- with more votes than any Republican nominee in history -- the message they were sending is that they're rejecting Republican leadership as it stands, and they want something new. They want Donald Trump.

So I think it's Donald Trump setting the agenda here, it's not Speaker Ryan. I think Speaker Ryan is very late to the game on this. We've already seen a lot of unification around Trump from Senator Corker warming up to him. There's even been reports of him and Lindsey Graham having friendly conversations behind the scenes. I think Speaker Ryan will get there.

But I do have to ask myself, where was Speaker Ryan when he was Romney's running mate, calling Romney out for essentially laying the blueprint for Obamacare in Massachusetts. One of the most liberal policy positions you could probably take. He was running mates with him and never called out Speaker -- never called out Romney for these things. So I have to wonder why now, why Donald Trump, and where was he with Mitt Romney a few years ago?

BROWN: And you have to look at these latest polls. Really remarkable, Ron ...

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

BROWN: ... The fact that first of all Clinton and Trump, according to the polls, are in a dead heat. Some may argue it's ...

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BROWN: ... you know, it's too far out, we saw five months ago they don't matter. But these unfavorables are historic. Look how high ...

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BROWN: ... the unfavorables are for both Clinton and Trump. What do you make of that?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it's really striking. And what has happened is, because the unfavorables for Hillary Clinton are now so high as well, it essentially has neutralized the historically high unfavorables for Donald Trump, and left us with what looks like, very much like a generic Republican-Democratic contest in a closely divided country, in these three polls; New York Times/CBS, ABC/Washington Post, and NBC/Wall Street Journal. With two exceptions, Pamela.

Basically most of the results of these polls follow the central tracks that we see in election. But there are two things that are different. Hillary Clinton is notably underperforming with younger voters. Barack Obama won two-thirds of them in '08. Three-fifths of them in '12. She's getting under half. And Donald Trump is significantly underperforming with college educated white voters, relative to previous Republican nominees. They're about even among those voters. Hillary Clinton -- Mitt Romney won them by 14 points in 2012.

I think in many ways, the general election will be which one of them can solve this problem, will be the key question. Because you are seeing, as Kayleigh was kind of noting, while the leadership of the Republican Party is still fractured, rank and file Republicans in a binary system are largely consolidating around Donald Trump, as an alternative to Hillary Clinton, who they like even less.

BROWN: Right, and on that note, David, how much do you think the fact that there is still that fight going on between Hillary and Bernie impacting these poll numbers that we see right here?

GERGEN: It's a hard one to judge. Most Democrats have already now swung behind Hillary. She's got about the same 85 percent support of Democrats that Trump has, 85 percent of Republicans. But I -- the assumption is, in the Clinton camp, is once she can rid herself of this priest effect, this man is drawing her down and she keeps on -- can't shake him off and it weakens her. Once that happens that there'll be more of a surge to her, I'm not

sure that's the case. The surge may already have come. But I do think it will make it remarkably easier for her once she gets past Sanders, if she can. I think the other thing though that, Pamela -- and Ron will have a particularly good view of this -- what we see so far in this head-to-head, heated, dead heat race -- which I think is absolutely remarkable that we're here -- is both candidates are still down in the low 40s.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

GERGEN: That means there are maybe 15 percent of people who haven't really made up their minds. Does that leave room for a third party candidate?

BROWN: Hm.

GERGEN: Can they -- Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate -- the perennial Libertarian that never gets anywhere. And yet in two recent polls he would pick up 10 percent in a three-way race. Who does he hurt, who does he help? I'd be curious about Ron's views on that.

[10:41:25]

BROWN: And just very quickly, David, if you could, you said that you're not so sure that Hillary Clinton's going to get this surge once -- if Bernie Sanders drops out. Why is that? Is it because you think that some of these supporters for Bernie are going to go to the Trump side? In fact, in the latest poll, I think more than 20 percent said that they would throw their support behind Donald Trump.

GERGEN: Well we don't know how many Democrats there are left to surge if she's already at 85. So you have that question to start with. But I do think that it's very, very unusual -- we always thought that the Republicans would have this to go -- at their convention there'd be a lot of contention. Now it's going to be at the Democratic side. She's got to come out of that with united with him. Supporting her enthusiastically.

BROWNSTEIN: Real quick Pamela, in terms of Sanders and Clinton, Sanders has been strongest among Independents. And it may be with younger Independents that Clinton still has the most room to grow if she gets past this ...

GERGEN: (And that's the only one).

BROWNSTEIN: ... Because the numbers among millennials are troubling.

BROWN: And just, I want you to respond Ron, and Kayleigh I'll get -- give the final word to you. But Ron, about this Libertarian candidate that David brought up, what are your thoughts?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes well look, we've never seen anything like two nominees with 58, 59 percent unfavorable. Clearly there is a big chunk of voters who view both of them unfavorably. And the question is, will those voters be willing to vote for a third party if they are worried that by doing so they might inadvertently help the candidate they like least? That is post-2000, post-the Ralph Nader run. That is what has held down third party votes.

The 97,000 people who left their homes in Florida in the morning of you know, November 2000, voting for Ralph Nader, they got George W. Bush. So the question is whether voters will ultimately shy back from doing that for fear of helping the side that they like the least. I'm guessing in the end that is what happens in a binary system. But it is an open field given the extraordinary high negatives of both of these candidates.

BROWN: And how concerning, Kayleigh, is a third-party candidate for Donald Trump, if that happens?

MCENANY: I don't think it's concerning at all. I -- look, this -- the narrative of 2016, of this election, I think it's going to be written as, this is the outsider's election. This is the election where you had tremendous discontent in both parties -- on the Democrat side and on the Republican side -- with the establishment. Donald Trump's the ultimate outsider. Hillary Clinton is the ultimate insider.

And I think when you have a contest between those two things, you're going to see a lot of people, both from the Democrat side and the Republican side, who are frustrated with Washington, coming to Donald Trump. I'm not worried about a third-party candidate at all.

BROWN: All right, Ron, David, Kayleigh, thanks so much ...

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

GERGEN: Thank you.

BROWN: ... appreciate you sharing your perspectives ...

MCENANY: Thank you.

BROWN: And still to come, we have an exclusive scene and report. We follow the top commander in the Middle East on a secret trip to Syria. But before the break, let's take a quick look at the market, now up just over 20 points.

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[10:48:15]

BROWN: Well major developments this morning from across some of the world's terror strongholds. First, a Taliban splinter group says they're now looking for a new successor after a U.S. drone strike takes out their leader. And according to the White House, Mullah Mansoor was killed during a series of airstrikes on the car he was traveling in. President Obama calling his death a milestone.

And meanwhile, ISIS is now claiming responsibility for a series of bombing attacks in Syria that killed at least 78 people. The blasts targeted bus stations and residential areas. Syrian TV says the explosions came from a combination of car bombings and suicide bombings.

And CNN was the only television network to travel overseas with General Joe Votel, the top U.S. Commander in the Middle East, on a secret mission to Syria. CNN's Barbara Starr joins us with this exclusive report. Barbara, why did he take this trip? Tell us more about it.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well General Votel went to Syria. He says, he wanted to see it all firsthand. There's nothing to hide from the American people about what U.S. troops are doing there. He was the highest ranking officer to go into this warzone.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STARR (voice-over): These are the first images ever shown publicly, from a U.S. special operations training camp in Northern Syria. From here, and other secret, nearby locations, the U.S. military is racing time to train enough local Syrian forces so they can push South towards Raqqa, ISIS's declared capital.

CNN was the only television network with General Joseph Votel on this secret, day-long trip to Syria. Votel oversees the war against ISIS.

GENERAL JOSEPH VOTEL, CENTCOM COMMANDER: My principal purpose was to meet with some of the Syrian Democratic (force) leadership in multiple locations. And also to meet with our advisor teams.

STARR: General Votel has come to Northern Syria under extraordinary security conditions. In fact, we've been asked not to reveal a number of details on how we all got here. But Votel considers this part of the war a top priority. He is here to meet with the U.S. military advisors that are helping some of these local troops that you see, work to defeat ISIS.

Votel went to multiple locations, we've been asked not to disclose. Meeting with key local leaders in the Syrian Democratic forces. An umbrella organization overseeing many of these young Arab fighters the U.S. is training. A spokesman for the Arab forces being trained here is critical of U.S. efforts. He says his group urgently needs more ammunition and weapons. Beyond the few ammunition supplies, he says the U.S. has delivered.

ARAB FORCE SPOKESMAN (via translator): We've been given a limited number of old rifles.

STARR (voice-over): Due to security concerns, we are not allowed to show details of the base. Our cameras are restricted. Security is so high here, the U.S. advisors want their faces shielded. But they do want to talk about the training.

STARR: You're a military advisor here. What do you guys do here?

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: We are here training the Syrian Democratic forces. Now when I say training, generally that's consisting of basic level weapons training, shooting AK-47s and shooting larger machine guns.

STARR (voice-over): Their 4-star General taking an extraordinary step to see it all firsthand.

VOTEL: I have responsibility for this mission, I have responsibility for the people that we put here. So it's imperative for me to come and see what they're dealing with, to share the risks that they are absorbing on a day-to-day basis.

STARR (voice-over): Even as the Arab fighters here patrol the surrounding fields and stand watch, getting ready for whatever their future holds.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: Now that interview with General Votel was inside Syria at the end of a very long day across the northern portions of Syria where he traveled. Joe Votel has decades of experience in special operations. The very experience that these young American forces we've met, are getting on this mission. This is a General who knows what is required and the kind of military personnel it takes to make it happen. Pamela?

[10:52:45]

BROWN: Barbara Starr, thank you so much for bringing us that exclusive report. And joining us now is CNN Military Analyst, Lieutenant Rick Francona. Thank you for coming on. The instability in the region, this new attempt by Iraq to retake Fallujah -- are things getting better or worse in the wake of all the U.S. efforts there, as Barbara highlighted?

LIEUTENANT RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well it's two separate problems that we're facing and Barbara -- that's an excellent report of what's going on in Syria. And I think General Votel's visit to Syria highlights just how tenuous the situation in Syria is. We've really got to get a handle on what we need to do in Syria, what resources are required. I think that's why he went there. And I think it was important for him to hear from the Syrian Democratic force commanders, just what they're not getting.

Because we're not giving the effort that we need to there. I do appreciate the fact that they're increasing numbers of special forces on the ground there. Turning to Iraq, it looks like the plans are coming together. But it's a completely different situation. In Iraq you know, they're the bad guys, that's ISIS and everybody else is allied and arrayed against them. In Syria you've got this multifaceted battle. You've got ISIS, you've got the government, you've got the Russians, you've got the Syrian Democratic forces, you've got the Kurds. It's all kind of a jumble over there.

What we're seeing starting just the other day in Fallujah, is the retaking of that city. It's the next step. The Iraqis have to eradicate ISIS from the Anbar Province before they can start North up the Tragus Valley to liberate Mosul. So their job in Iraq is to retake Mosul and the northern part of their country. Syria, still a big, big problem. We still don't have a handle on how we're going to do it, let alone what we're going to do. BROWN: Does the Iraqi military, is it equipped to retake Fallujah?

It's obviously a huge endeavor, thousands of -- tens of thousands of citizens still trapped in Fallujah as we speak.

FRANCONA: Well you went right to the heart of it. This is the problem. The Iraqi forces are better, but they're not there yet. So if you look at the force structure that they put in place to go after Fallujah, the majority of the fighting forces are going to be the Syrian -- the Iraqi national police. They're going to be backed up with some regular soldiers. And the bulk of the fighting on the ground will be also done by the Shia militias. Now this is a problem. When you bring Shia militias into the Sunni Triangle area ...

BROWN: M-hm.

FRANCONA: ... it's -- you've got to be very, very careful how you do this. If they're going to use them, they've got to get them in there, let them fight, and get them out. And not set up any kind of permanent presence. When they took Ramadi, they did it correctly. They used Sunni militias, not Shia. So they have to be careful with this tension, and the tension is very high right now. Because of all of these ISIS bombings in Baghdad. The residents are more concerned about their own security than the liberation of Fallujah, the liberation of Mosul.

BROWN: Such a delicate, tenuous situation there. Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona, thank you very much for that. And by the way tonight on CNN, Fareed Zakaria has a special investigation into hate, radical Muslims and the United States, why they hate us airs tonight at 9:00 p.m. only on CNN. And thank you so much for being here with us on this Monday. I'm Pamela Brown in for Carol Costello. AT THIS HOUR with Berman and Bolduan starts after a break.

[10:56:00]

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