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Quest Means Business
UK Divided To Days Ahead of Referendum; Soros Warns of Economic Toll of Brexit; Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 5 Percent Nationwide; Unilever CEO: Brexit Should Worry Everyone; Ryanair Urges U.K. Voters to "Remain" in EU; Record Number of Voters Register for Brexit Vote; Scottish National Party Would Discuss Using Euro; Formula One CEO Favors Brexit; Ecclestone Predicts Trump Victory. Aired 3-4p ET
Aired June 21, 2016 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:00] RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: The Closing bell on Wall Street where the Dow is just eking out a small gain. Bit a sort of a Himalayan
sort of day with the markets going up and down. I have a good feeling about the closing bell and the -- oh yes, look at this. Yes. Go on. Go
for it. That's what you call a robust gavel that brings trading to a close. It is Tuesday, the 21st of June.
Tonight, the man who broke the Bank of England says don't break up England. George Soros is warning of a brutal Brexit fallout. The new man in the
driving seat, the head of Formula 1, tells me Vladimir Putin should run Europe. And deposing the so-called king of debt. Hillary Clinton is
slamming Donald Trump's economic plans. I'm Richard Quest. Live in London tonight where, of course, I mean business.
Good evening. Two days to go before the U.K. makes its biggest strategic decision for a generation. And the politicians and the economists and the
great British public are still split seemingly on whether Britain should leave the EU. Now, on this program tonight, you will hear some of the most
influential voices in British business, politics and culture. We have the Unilever, chief executive, Paul Polman, who says the future of our children
is at stake. The former Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, tells me a second independence referendum is coming, whether Britain vote it is leave
or not. I'm going to be joined by the Chair of the Institution of Director, Lady Barbara Judge. And the head of Formula 1, Bernie
Ecclestone, with some fruity thoughts about the future of Europe and, indeed, Donald Trump.
Tonight, though, a stark warning from a legendry investor, who is telling us he has six decades of experience in the financial markets. George Soros
says a British exit from the Euro could cause the pound to crash by more than 20 percent, worse than black Wednesday. Now, Mr. Soros in 1992 made
more than a billion dollars, $1.5 billion, betting against sterling before the currency crashed out of the European exchange rate mechanism, the ERM.
He got the man that broke the Bank of England. Now writing in "The Guardian", he says the chaos that ensued after black Wednesday would be in
his word benign in comparison to the aftermath of Brexit. Soros writes, "A vote to "Leave" could see the weekend with a Black Friday, and serious
consequences for ordinary people." I've got the actual article. He says, "Sterling is almost certain to fall steeply. Brexit capital flows would
move the other way, and there's very little that monetary policy could do to stimulate the economy."
John Redwood is a member of Parliament for the Conservative Party and supports strongly the "Leave" campaign. Mr. Redwood, good evening to you.
Sir, you've obviously read the Soros article. You have seen what he says or you know what he said. Why is a man with six decades of experience
incorrect about the effects of Brexit in your view?
JOHN REDWOOD, BRITISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, CONSERVATIVE PARTY: Well, I have a good few decades of experience of financial markets, as well, and I
was a full-time investment manager before I coming into the Parliament and work since. My experience is very different from Mr. Soros. I was with
him in saying that the European exchange rate mechanism was a ruinous experiment and did indeed cause enormous havoc and damage and that meant
that a lot of people in my country lost their jobs and lost their livelihoods and their businesses. I predicted it as did Mr. Soros. I now
confidently predict that when we leave the European Union, if that is the will of the British people at the end of this week, there not be any such
dreadful consequences whatsoever. We will carry on trading with the rest of the EU. I don't see how our trade is at risk in any way. They not
going to want to get in the way of a very profitable trade, because they sell us more than we sell them.
QUEST: Yes, but they are going to want the U.K. to abide by the same standards when trading into the European Union for goods and services going
in to the EU so do you not risk --
REDWOOD: Well, of course, just as America has to.
QUEST: But then they set standards, which you have to follow, and you have no say at the table.
[16:05:00] REDWOOD: Well, that's how trade works. If my country wants to sell into the United States of America, we don't tell America what products
to order. You set down the standards for the products and we meet the customer requirements. One of the affidavits of single market in Europe
has now achieved common standards. We helped contribute those common standards. They're in place and, of course, we want to meet those common
standards exporting to them just as the United States of America gets that advantage without belonging to the EU.
QUEST: What is your preferred -- as a solution, if you like -- for the Northern Ireland question whereby there would have to be the putting up of
a border between the north and the south to prevent it becoming a back door for immigration through the Republic of Ireland. And effectively the
common travel area would come to an end.
REDWOOD: No, I don't agree with that. Both countries, the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom, are not members of Schengen, which makes
the freedom of movement issue even more difficult to handle. And we value our free communications with the Republic of Ireland. It isn't yet a back
door in the way you describe. And we will obviously, keep it under control and monitored in conjunction with the Republic. Because we don't wish to
disturb our free communications with them.
QUEST: But you do accept there would have to be a border, at least a customs border, between the north and the south.
REDWOOD: No, I don't at all because we are not planning any new customs duties. That's the whole point. We start from a free trade position with
the rest of the European Union. We are not proposing altering that and I don't think they're proposing altering it. I've talked to the German
government. Do they want to impose tariffs on us? And they said, no, of course they don't. Because they sell us twice as much as we sell them in
goods. And the last thing they want is us putting tariffs on them. And I've got great news for you guys, we're not planning to put any tariffs on
the Republic of Ireland or Germany and I don't think they're going to put tariffs on our exports.
QUEST: Let me finish our discussion here with a -- I mean, in the last 24 hours, George Soros, Nouriel Roubini, I won't mention the Prime Minister's
speech, but because arguably he would say what he would say. But Nouriel Roubini, who predicted 2008 and he predicted the European sovereign debt
crisis, he says that it will be bad. Why should we not listen to Mr. Roubini?
REDWOOD: Well, why not listen to me? I mean, I wrote two books explaining what will go wrong with the euro. I predicted the European exchange rate
mechanism, as Mr. Soros famously did, as well. I predicted the banking crash of 2008 and explained how the authorities of the West could, indeed,
make everything worse as they did. And I'm now saying I see absolutely no reason why the pound should go down 15 percent or 20 percent in this absurd
forecast that Mr. Soros put forward. People will be covering their bear positions and buying long before then. Don't you realize that the markets
are terribly short of sterling at the moment. And they've been paying very fancy prices to cover their positions. Because they fear a Brexit.
They're going to have to cover and actually buy back sterling when Brexit occurs if that's the will of the British people.
QUEST: John Redwood, the voting takes place 36 hours from now give or take. This time in 48 hours, well, the polls will be about to close.
Thank you, sir. You've been courteous enough to come on the program several times during the course of the referendum, and we are grateful for
you. Thank you. John Redwood joining me from Westminster.
Vicki Price is with me. Board member for the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Vicki, you couldn't hear -- I'm sure you got the gist
of what John Redwood was --
VICKY PRYCE, BOARD MEMBER, CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH: I could hear him, yes.
QUEST: I mean, it's very difficult for the British public now to understand -- even for somebody like myself who's covering economics for 20
to 30 years, when you've got these economists saying this on one side and you've got the Redwoods and the Johnsons saying that they're wrong.
PRYCE: I mean, interesting thing is not just the economists. If you talk to businesses. I know the "Leave" campaign has tried to portray businesses
as being divided. But in reality the majority of businesses want to stay. And every survey that has been done of members, organizations, trade
organizations shows a clear majority for it. So it means that it's not just people saying that it's going to be bad. It's people actually worried
about their own investments, the employment of their people.
QUEST: But it's not going to be as bad as Soros says or that Roubini says?
PRYCE: It's quite interesting. Just remember, since you and I have discussed a number of times, happened around Grexit or the concern of that.
How the markets reacted already and we were worried about was what would happen to Europe, the euro and the wider repercussions. We here we have a
much bigger economy, about possibly to leave the EU. And of course we are very substantial and important and the shock to both us and the global
economies likely to be substantial and people will reorder their thinking.
[16:10:01] QUEST: It doesn't say much for the European Union itself that it can't -- that people are talking about existential other countries
leaving, I mean, maybe people are saying it comes crashing down in a heap, but people are talking about very deleterious effects. That doesn't say
much for the strength of the union.
PRYCE: We talked about that throughout the Eurozone crisis, thinking that perhaps it would all break up. It didn't. But what it actually did was
got them all much closer together. And that's the interesting thing, politically, certainly. There is no doubt, and you're right that in terms
of the EU institutions people don't like them, because of what it's meant for them and yet look at Europe right now. The Eurozone is growing faster
than the UK is growing. There is now --
QUEST: There's enough monetary stimulus in the Eurozone to start a bonfire.
PRYCE: The same here. We're very, very proud of how were doing in the U.K. and yet, look at our interest rates. How low they have been. And we
had -- so there's no difference really in that respect. In other words, we have done incredibly well under the EU's sort of regime, if you want to
call that, or been part of the EU. And we have been one of the fastest countries without the restrictions that everyone is worried about including
regulations.
QUEST: I need the ask you, because, obviously, you have a particularly specialty of Greece and knowledge and expertise in that area. If Britain,
the U.K., votes Brexit, will there be a call, a realistic call, in Greece for Grexit to follow? I know they have a currency issue. In the sense
that they have the Euro. They don't have their own currency. But on the basis of the Brits are gone, we'll go, too.
PRYCE: Actually it's quite the opposite. They're very, very worried about the Brits going. Because what it might mean is that the main countries in
Europe, and they won't have Britain any longer to perhaps influence, as it has done, and make sure there's financial stability in Europe. We have
been very involved from here with the banking union. But they would be worried that those countries, essentially the core countries, would try to
get closer together and there would be greater integration there with the periphery countries let go, if you like. I think that is their greatest
nightmare. So no, I think they want Britain to stay in, A, because it's very important as an influencer and sort of as a counterbalance to Germany
in particular. But also because they think that without it there may be dissolution of what's there now, and they will suffer.
QUEST: I have a feeling that you and I will be talking much over the next week. Thank you, good to see you as always.
Just to prove the global extent of the Brexit concerns, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, is warning of in her words significant
economic repercussions, that's what she said, if Britain votes to leave. The chair was testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, when she said
the market turmoil could follow a Brexit victory.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JANET YELLEN, CHAIR, U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE: I think it would usher in a period of uncertainty and it is very hard to predict. But there could be a
period of financial market volatility that would negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economic outlook that's by no means
certain but it is something that we will be carefully monitoring.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: So, CNN's Clare Sebastian is in New York. If we look, Clare, if we look at a map, a graph of the way the Dow traded during the course of the
day, calling that up, you'll see. It starts to look somewhat like the Himalayas. Now, I grant you that the range is not great, but the
volatility and an ease of direction is substantial, Clare.
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN MONEY REPORTING: Absolutely, Richard. It's why the Fed is looking at the choice of words she used. She mentioned uncertainty
twice just in that 25-second clip and volatility. This is key for Janet Yellen. The U.S. economy already on slightly more uncertain footing than
she would've hope for. The labor market is showing weakness. The economy is not hitting the inflation targets that the Fed would want. And the S&P
500 over the course of this year so far, the U.S. economy has already been through a time of extreme volatility in the early part of the year. That
was also due to external factors, the worries over China, who worries over oil. You can see we're not back in that at the moment but this is what
jackpot Yellen is worried about. That there would be another external shock. She said today that the U.S. Fed was almost out of options when it
came to traditional monetary policy if there was another external shock. So we know, Richard, that Janet Yellen is worried. We know members of
Congress are worried, because think asked her about this today. We even know the U.S. President is worried. But what we wanted to find out is
whether this has actually trickled down to Americans on the streets, whether they know about Brexit and whether they care. Take a look.
[16:15:00] (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Brexit? Sounds like a store.
SEBASTIAN (voice-over): In the business capital of the world, New York City --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I have no idea.
SEBASTIAN: There's some confusion around the word Brexit.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I thought it was like a breath mint or something.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't know. A watch company.
SEBASTIAN (on camera): It's actually a British exit from the Europe Union.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.
SEBASTIAN: Do you think that's something you should care about?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.
SEBASTIAN (voice-over): The message on Wall Street, it's time to start caring.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It absolutely will have an impact on Americans' 401(k)s and their other investments.
SEBASTIAN: the threat of Brexit is already having an impact. It's one of the reasons for current market volatility.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's definitely fear.
SEBASTIAN: Even a Fed rate rise on hold.
YELLEN: It was one of the factors.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is a tsunami. This is China melting down. This is Lehman going out of business in my opinion.
SEBASTIAN: It's not the first dire warning. The U.S. President has said trade with the U.K. could suffer. Last year, that was worth $56 million to
U.S. businesses.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, U.S. PRESIDENT: Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done. And the U.K. is going
to be in the back of the queue.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SEBASTIAN: The more optimistic in New York's banking community say that is premature.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're knocking to turn around to the UK and say, no you can't bring Jaguars in. So what we're going to do is extend out trade any
relationships until we figure out a new workout process.
SEBASTIAN: three and a half thousand miles from the U.K., it is hard to imagine what Brexit would feel like. One U.S. talk show host used another
British export to explain it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SETH MEYERS, NBC, LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS: Look at it this way. When Zain left, one direction was okay. But if Harry leaves, that's it. It's
over.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SEBASTIAN: That warning still lost on some New Yorkers.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is it like a word scramble thing?
SEBASTIAN: A word scramble for sure. An economics scramble for the U.S., well, it depends who you ask.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SEBASTIAN: So, Richard, views remarkably different there. But if you look at the newspapers today, it is moving into the spotlight. This is the
front page of the "Wall Street journal." "Markets rise on the U.K. polls." And on the front page of "The Washington Post," "If Britain Leaves, is an
Frexit to follow?" This is perhaps not a word that people on the streets here know yet. But as we get closer to the event itself it is gaining
momentum in terms of the general discussion and the use of the word here, Richard.
QUEST: Clare Sebastian, keep monitoring things in New York. Obviously, polling taking place in just 36 hours or so from now.
Hillary Clinton has gone after Donald Trump on the question of national security already. Now, a blistering assessment of the Trump economy.
We'll be discussing that after the break. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. We are in London as the Brexit vote gets ever closer. Good evening to you.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:20:00] QUEST: Hillary Clinton says Donald Trump would be a danger to the U.S. economy. It was a speech that was meant to focus on her economic
plan. But the presumptive Democratic nominee kept her sights firmly on the likely opponent. And blistering it was too.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON, U.S. DEMOCRATIC PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE: You might think that because he has spent his life as a businessman he'd be better prepared to
handle the economy. Well, it turns out he's dangerous there, too. Just like he shouldn't have his finger on the button, he shouldn't have his
hands on our economy. We would lose 3.5 million jobs. Incomes would stagnate. Debt would explode. And stock prices would plummet. And you
know what would be hit the hardest? The people who had the hardest time getting back on their feet after the 2008 crisis.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Public opinion isn't on Secretary Clinton's side. Fifty-one percent of respondents to a CNN/ORC poll said Donald Trump in their view is
better person to handle the economy, 43 percent for Mrs. Clinton. Sidney Blumenthal is a former adviser to Hillary Clinton, friend and family, as
well. He's also the author of "A Self-Made Man: The Political Life of Abraham Lincoln." An excellent work that we featured recently on the
program. Mr. Blumenthal joins me now from New York. Good to see you again, sir, thank you. This is the difficulty that Mrs. Clinton faces.
She can attack all she likes, but Donald Trump rightly or wrongly is perceived to be more competent in handling the economy.
SIDNEY BLUMENTHAL, FORMER ADVISER TO HILLARY CLINTON: Well, what she has made the point of today is that both Trump's personal business practices,
which involve series of frauds scamming little people, not just simply his investors. But contractors across the board, manipulating bankruptcies,
has exemplifies his economic program, which is itself a fraud. Which is the point that she's made. Furthermore, his own campaign and is Potemkin
village. He claims to be a billionaire who can self-finance and no one should worry about it. But behind the scenes, behind the scrim, there's
nothing there. There is no campaign and there's no money.
QUEST: But he's perceived to be a winner. I mean, like it or not, you know, the whole apprentice television program. I wonder, does this
strategy of saying he's dangerous for the economy, when coming head-to-head against the bombast of Trump, make America great again, one seems
optimistic. The other sort of seems grumbling.
BLUMENTHAL: Well, let's see if evidence works. Moody's has come out with a report that's been in an analysis of the Trump program and says it will
would plunge the economy into a very serious recession similar to the great financial crash that we recently experienced. So if evidence matters, then
I think people will look at Trump closely.
QUEST: You know, I realize not too many similarities between Trump and Brexit, but of course, the same argument can be made about Moody's claim as
they're saying here about the economists and Brexit. Which is Moody's was wrong in 2008. They managed to miss or by malfeasance, miss the great
recession completely. Why should we believe them when Donald Trump says his economy, his economics and his plan is going to create more jobs and
stimulate growth?
BLUMENTHAL: Well, Trump actually supports Brexit and Hillary Clinton opposes it. What's interesting about that Trump's position is that it's
very similar to the "Leave" campaign. It claims to want to take back control from the other, from inundation of immigrants who are destroying
and undermining and sapping the national character. Insofar as a true economic argument, and evidence-based analysis, well in both cases it seems
to be lacking.
QUEST: Sidney Blumenthal, we'll probably talk again, no doubt. Thank you as always for coming in.
BLUMENTHAL: Thank you, Richard.
QUEST: After we get the Brexit results on Thursday, I'm sure we'll need interpretation what it means for the United States and you're just the man
to help us. Thank you, sir, for joining us tonight.
BLUMENTHAL: Thank you.
QUEST: We appreciate it.
Donald Trump is going into the general election with a huge cash deficit. Clinton's campaign with $42 million.
[16:25:00] This is Mrs. Clinton, 42 in the bank at the end of last month. Trump had 1.3 million. He needs money to turn public opinion and a new
CNN/ORC with 47 percent respondents said they would back the former Secretary of State compared to 42 percent of Donald Trump. He's relied on
free media to get his message out. His campaign spent $120,000 on advertising last month. By comparison he spent 200,000 on those sort of
baseball hats that people like. Joining me now from New York is Mark Preston, Executive Editor of CNN politics. Mark, I have been listening to
you throughout the course of the day explaining this discrepancy. But I ask you bluntly, if he managed to get the far by free publicity, by tweets
and he got rid of 16 or so other Republicans, grantees, why will that not work in the general election?
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Well, because, literally what you are doing in a Republican primary here in the U.S., Richard, is
you are focusing in on a very narrow subset of voters, Republican, conservative voters. And that's how Donald Trump ran his campaign, as you
said, based largely on free media. He is one of the few politicians, certainly of our time, that understood how to use television to his
advantage. Of course, he was on U.S. television here for many, many years. So he understood it. Now, however, it's a new game. He needs to reach out
to voters that are not only those who helped propel him to victory in the primary. And I might add it was a plurality, it wasn't an overwhelming
majority, that he was able to capture to win the Republican primary. He needs to reach out to independent voters and in some ways disaffected
Democratic voters that don't like Hillary Clinton. So he needs to do a lot more work than just going on and doing interviews, Richard.
QUEST: Now, forgive me. Forgive me, Mark, but I feel similarities with Brexit. Coming on again. You know? The "Leave" campaign says the experts
are wrong. Donald Trump has proven that the experts have been wrong so far in getting this far. You can see where this is going. Why is he not -- I
mean, he surely has a valid point to say, all right, I will have to spend more money, but I don't just spend that much.
PRESTON: well, let me explain it this way. Let me raise my hand and say, I'm one person who was absolutely positively 1 million percent wrong about
Donald Trump. There's no way I thought he would be at this situation. But here's where we are right now. He is about a month away from his
convention in Cleveland, Ohio. He only has 70 staffers on his payroll.
In order to win a campaign here in the United States, what you need to do is you need to have a lot of bodies working for you. Because you might be
able to get out those die-hard voters you were successful in wooing, Richard, in the primary. But you need to identify voters that might be on
the edge with you. And you need money to do that.
QUEST: So, finally, briefly, is there a sense of panic amongst Republican parties? Never mind his policies, just on logistics that he doesn't have
the money, he doesn't have the infrastructure, he doesn't have the experience? Are Republicans at the top of the party panicking yet?
PRESTON: In one word, yes. And the reason why is because it affects them greatly. Putting aside whether he wins or not in November, there are
Republicans on the ballot that have to worry about being dragged down if he doesn't run a powerful campaign.
QUEST: Mark, we have so much to talk about over the next three, four months. Looking forward to having you frequently on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
Thank you, sir.
PRESTON: Thanks, Richard.
QUEST: David Cameron has a message for Britain stay together for the sake of trade. The PM made his final appeal two days before the U.K. goes to
the poll. You'll hear the appeal and you'll see the trade numbers. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS from London. Good evening.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:31:25] QUEST: Hello. I'm Richard Quest. Of course there's more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS from London in a moment. When Bernie Ecclestone tells me
why he thinks Donald Trump will take the checkered flag in the race for the White House. And the former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond is voting
remain for his father's sake. Before any of that, this is CNN and on this network the news always comes first.
Just a couple of days to go and the U.K.'s electoral commission said nearly 46.5 million people registered to vote in the referendum on EU membership.
It's a record number nearly 150,000 more voters than last year's British general election.
Hillary Clinton's taking on Donald Trump in what he calls his area of expertise which is business. In her first general election economics
speech, Mrs. Clinton said the presumptive Republican nominee in her words would be dangerous for the U.S. economy. A new CNN poll finds a majority
of voters think Trump would handle the economy better than Clinton.
Orlando nightclub gunman Omar Mateen made an apparent surveillance visit to the club hours before the murderous attack. Investigators said he left and
returned two hours later with his weapons killing 49 people. Police believe he was checking out the club's security.
Just one day of campaigning left before voters in the U.K. decide their place in the EU. On Tuesday, the prime minister David Cameron made a last-
minute appeal saying staying in was a question of economic security, and warned leaving the EU could mean losing easy access to the continent's 500
million consumers. There's been a lot of talk about exactly the trade position so I decided or we decided today let's show you exactly the
current position.
These are the trade flows from Britain, the U.K., into Europe. 44 percent of British goods and services went to the EU last year. 44 percent, the
top destinations were Germany, France and the Netherlands. European consumers bought British autos, appliances, they fueled their cars with
British petrol, 44 percent went this way.
Now, British consumers like European cars, appliances and pharmaceuticals, Germany was by far the biggest source followed by the Netherlands and
France. So you have got 44 percent going this way. A huge amount going this way. What is the gap between the imports and the exports of goods and
services last year? A deficit in Europe's favor of nearly $100 billion.
In 2015, the trade gap was $100 billion heading that way. And that's the reason why the "Leave" campaign says that the EU will be desperate to do a
free trade agreement with the United Kingdom outside. The vast of the consumer goods company Unilever believes Brexit makes it more difficult to
move products across Europe, and U.K. jobs will be put online.
[16:35:03] CNN's Eleni Giokos, asked Paul Polman if he's now worried about this prospect.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAUL POLMAN, CEO, UNILEVER: Well, it ought to worry everybody. At a time that the world is more in need of working together, the time of big trading
zones as we see in China or the U.S., as Africa moves to trading zones, it is probably not a smart idea to make Europe weaker. You have to project
yourself in 20, 30 years from now. Europe is the biggest trading zone, most prosperous trading zone. Most equality actually also in the trading
zone.
Moving away from that would be a decision I would be really careful about taking from an economic point of view. There are many people experts from
the World Bank to the IMF to the Bank of England to many governments in the world and others said it's a bad idea. Employment under pressure and it's
in effect the people that desperately need the jobs that are going to suffer more from that. Economically, it really doesn't make any sense.
The uncertainty it's creating has also shown already now in the U.K. many people stopped investments, the U.K. as you know depends on foreign
investment. It has a trade deficit in the that sense including services, as well. So it would be to the detriment of the U.K. economy if they
actually would go out.
ELENI GIOKOS, CNN, CNN, AFRICA CORRESPONDENT: Have you tallied up the monetary impact that a Brexit will have on Unilever?
POLMAN: Undoubtedly if the U.K. exits you create uncertainty, complexity. At the same time, it will weaken Europe and put the European economy under
further pressure, as well. Were that to happen, again, you have to look at the industrial base and jobs would be put at risk. So there's a serious
knock-on effect and a company like ours, any other company not surprisingly is saying be careful there.
80 percent of the business community in the U.K. most of the foreign companies, as well, are really and have spoken out that this is not a good
idea. Even the business associations or even the farmers themselves and many others. So we need to be very careful. Whilst the emotions might
drive you to a short-term decision, the long term is really what you need to look at. How difficult it may be. Talking about the future of our
children and their children and not surprisingly even if you look in the U.K. and you look at the young generation, they're overwhelmingly for
staying in the EU. I would support that decision.
GIOKOS: Unilever along with other big brands were implicated in a leave campaign pamphlet. The news of possible legal action, would Unilever be
embarking on legal action?
POLMAN: The out campaign in this case gave a false impression to everybody with their door to door leaflet as if companies like GE or Toyota or
ourselves were supportive of the leave campaign. We don't think that's fair on such an important decision for mankind that affects people well
beyond the U.K. to practice these type of habits. And it's important that people who make the decisions, whatever decisions they take, that they are
well informed on the facts. And it is very clear as far as all major companies are concerned, the majority of small companies and many others,
Brexit, U.K. leaving the EU puts jobs at risk and would put jobs at risk.
GIOKOS: Does that mean you're embarking on legal action?
POLMAN: That means that we have filed an official complaint and we'll see how that goes.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: Europe's largest airlines urging voters to stay in the EU. Ryanair says that Britain's future economic growth will be stronger as an EU
member. Fares likely to rise if the U.K. voted to leave and indeed it is having a special offer which it e-mailed to me today. 19 pounds 99 or
something for a certain number of fares.
Lady Barbara Judge is the chair of the Institute of Directors joins me now. Rather enterprising of Michael to have this sort of thing, and you're the
chair. The risk of Brexit, now, the IOD which is what you're the chair of, is neutral. But your members are not.
BARBARA JUDGE, CHAIR, INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS: Exactly. We believe that it's not appropriate for us to take a position as the institution but our
members at the moment are 63 percent in favor of staying in and 25 percent in favor of leaving. Which is slightly different than it was when Cameron
came back in the deal when it was 60-30. We are moving slightly towards remain.
QUEST: Right. But are you surprised that there is still 25 percent of members that want to leave?
JUDGE: Well, you know, from our point of view, our members are small and medium-sized businesses. Most of the businesses in Europe, small and
museum-sized businesses.
QUEST: They hate the European Union. That's a strong word. I shouldn't use the word. They have strong reservations about the European Union.
JUDGE: I think that's right. They think it's micromanaging. They think there's overregulation.
[16:40:00] When I was in the fruit business. The EU used to tell me how to ship my raisins from Leeds to Manchester, what kind of corrugated boxes.
Now, frankly, those raisins never touched international commerce but notwithstanding we got the raisins from Europe and we -- from various
different times we needed to be exporting.
QUEST: When you hear George Soros' comments, Roubini's and the Prime Minister's and then you hear other people saying, we'll be quite fine, the
U.K. will be quite fine outside.
JUDGE: That's probable. It seems to me what our members are saying is we still need migrant labor, we still need skilled labor and we still need
access to the markets. But if it happens that we vote for Brexit, we'll all have to pull together.
QUEST: Are your members preparing for Brexit? What are they -- in the tearooms at the IOD, what are you hearing how their preparations being
made?
JUDGE: I think everyone is continually hoping the government stays together whatever happens that it won't be fractious. That the Bank of
England will do what it says and maintain stability and people don't know what's going to happen. That's the point. If Brexit comes, they don't
know.
There are many people who say this is going to be a messy divorce. Why in fact should Europe let us in on a favorable trade deal after we have just
put them in such a difficult position because if we leave, what happens to Amsterdam? What happens to Hungary and various other countries? So that
thinking about it, they're quite unsure.
QUEST: Is there, finally, is there an incredulity that the U.K. has managed to get itself into this somewhat extraordinary situation where half
the country is forecasting financial apocalypse and the other half saying we'll sail majestically into the sunset?
JUDGE: It isn't quite -- we say business is not half-half. The country may be half-half but business is probably two to one in favor of staying.
And indeed, people like the CBI are much higher but yes. We all wonder how we got here. There is no question.
The most important thing is if we stay in, we should use it as an opportunity to push the EU in the right direction, deregulatory towards the
model of more competiveness for all of Europe. It will be a big opportunity for us and if we stay out, we have to keep our country
together, not split apart and try to do the best we can.
QUEST: Your Ladyship, thank you very much, indeed.
On that question of keeping the country together and not splitting apart, when we come back after the break, you're going to hear from Alex Salmond
and he is talking about the prospect of a referendum, a second referendum in Scotland. Because if the U.K. votes out and Scotland votes in, he wants
to leave and break up the U.K. We'll hear from the former first minister after the break. QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:45:00] QUEST: Welcome back. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. the Scottish National Party says it would discuss using the euro in the event of a
Brexit and independence from the U.K. Now Scotland is generally one of the most pro-European parts of the country according to a YouGov poll in
February.
The polls have been unreliable. But if you look at that map, you'll see the topmost, you have some areas in the west of Scotland, some urban areas,
but by and large, the very much very Europhile at the top and the euro skeptics at the bottom. I asked the former First Minister of Scotland,
Alex Salmond would a Brexit Britain and remain Scotland justify another vote? In other words, in other words, if the entire country votes to
leave, but Scotland votes to stay, does that justify him calling another referendum on Scottish membership of the United Kingdom?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALEX SALMOND, BRITISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, SNP: Yes, I do. As laid out in the SNP manifesto by Nicola Sturgeon in which she won 47 percent of the
vote and an overwhelming mandate in last month's Scottish elections. So there's a -- clearest possible mandate for that.
People ask me in that case why you're hoping it's a remain vote across the U.K. Well, I suppose the answer to that is I would like these things the
new referendum in Scotland which I think will come, I'd like it to be decided on a time scale by the Scottish people. I don't want to see us
bounced into it by an act of collective madness by our neighbors in England. I would rather that Scotland determined the time scale as opposed
to being bounced into it.
QUEST: But you see, that really is the point that those in other parts of the United Kingdom sort of say about the Scottish position, that, you know,
come what may at some point Scotland, people like yourself and Nicola Sturgeon want their referendum on Scottish independence, And, frankly,
whether it's this vote or another vote or some other decision, you are hell bent for leather going to have a second referendum regardless.
SALMOND: Which is why, of course, we've been arguing the case for remain on the merits across the United Kingdom. I have been campaigning in all
four countries of the United Kingdom. Last week I was in Oxford and then Derry and this past few days I've been in Wales and obviously campaigning
in Scotland. I'm the only politician I know of who has campaigned in all four nations with the exception of George Osbourne. And I hope I had a
more positive impact for the remain side than he's been having in this campaign. So I have been taking that campaign as has the SNP and Sturgeon
to all corners of the kingdom arguing the positive case, which is the one that is needed to be argued for remain.
QUEST: Do you accept, though, what Donald Tusk the president of the council said I think three weeks ago? He said the reality is that people
in Europe are not as in favor of further European integration as European bureaucrats are themselves? Which he then followed up yesterday as you
will have seen in the comments where he basically says there's got to be a radical rethink about the way Europe works.
SALMOND: Well, I think there's an ample, ample reason and hopefully opportunity for genuine reforms in the context of how the European Union
administers itself. I believe in subsidiarity and proportionately. I think Europe should get out of the hair of many key issues and concentrate
on things that really matter. But when you get down to the things that is really matter, one example, last Sunday, was Fathering Sunday.
I went to visit my dad in a home in Scotland and a conversation of my dad about Europe who's a 19-year-old went to war in western Europe. If you
have a conversation with my father about Europe, he'll say, look. Whatever the economic arguments are, whatever the to's and fro's are and whatever
you think about immigration, whether you are in favor of it like me or have doubts about it like many other people, the reality is that the European
Union has made a contribution in a small corner of the planet in western Europe for the first time in 2,000 years. Where is it is now inconceivable
that two democracies within the European Union could go to war with each other.
According to my father and people of that generation who actually had to do the fighting, that overrides every other single argument. That is a
positive, a good thing and people should vote for it in that light.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
[16:50:00] QUEST: Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland, now the SNP foreign affairs spokesman in Parliament.
The head of a top of one of the world's top motor sports group is weighing in on Brexit. Bernie Ecclestone has some surprising opinions on the
referendum with the opinion on Vladimir Putin and the U.S. presidential election. My interview with the Formula One chief is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: The head of the Formula One Group, Bernie Ecclestone, says he's in favor of Britain racing towards EU exit. Bernie says he's looking forward
to a Vladimir Putin-Donald Trump partnership. Extraordinary views from the man. When I spoke to him earlier he said that a Brexit would not harm the
United Kingdom.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BERNIE ECCLESTONE, CEO, FORMULA ONE GROUP: Perhaps what I'm doing is wrong. But I'm talking about what I think's good for England. Not good
for any particular company. What we have got is a discussion between two different people. That are trying to win an argument. And I don't think
either of the arguments are very good to be absolutely honest with you. That's what's happening.
I don't think either of them really care too much about what the result is because they're not going to be there that long to worry about it. They're
concerned what will happen to them. I'm thinking about what would be good for England long term.
Quest: Why do you believe it would be good for England for the U.K. long term to be out of the European Union? What's your driving force on this?
ECCLESTONE: I think it's been in the union and cost a lot of money and we get nothing back. They give a lot of money and support for Greece. I was
told some time ago when we -- the euro was floating above and if we didn't use the euro we'd never do any business in Europe. Whatever we produce in
this country, if it's in line with the right amount of money and it is the right product, it will be sold anywhere in the world.
Europe won't say, well, we won't buy from England because they wanted to be outside of Europe any more than anything Europe make, deliver if we want
we'll buy. Just normal straightforward business. That's what will happen.
QUEST: We have had the most dire economic forecasts from everybody from George Soros to Nouriel Roubini to the chancellor of the Bank of England.
Everybody but you don't see any effect for F1 if Brexit is the decision.
ECCLESTONE: Not at all. Not at all. I think Europe, really in the end, is something that will be forgotten about shortly. It will turn into a
third rate economy.
[16:55:00] QUEST: I've also seen comments that you're widely reported comments that you believe that Vladimir Putin should run Europe. Now, I
think that, you know, explain what you mean by that, sir.
ECCLESTONE: Well, there isn't anyone running it at the moment so I suppose, you know, you need to get somebody. Who -- I mean, if you had the
choice now and you could decide who would have to run, who would you suggest?
QUEST: What do you think about Donald Trump in the United States? I mean, as between -- I mean, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both have a love fest
of comments for each other. Between those two, who would you prefer?
ECCLESTONE: I think if Trump wins, which I think he will, him and Putin will get on eventually well together. And it will be better for the world
in general.
QUEST: So you would look forward to a Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton?
ECCLESTONE: Absolutely.
QUEST: Bernie Ecclestone looking forward to a victory by the presumptive Republican nominee. We'll have a profitable moment after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Tonight's profitable moment. George Soros says the value of the dollar will decline precipitously and sterling will fall steeply. The
problem is it doesn't seem to matter what warning is given at moment, the general view is the experts are wrong, the arguments are much wider than
simple economics. And that is the way things are when we go into the final day of campaigning. This is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.
I am Richard Quest in London whatever you are up to in the hours ahead, I hope it is profitable, I'll see you tomorrow.
END
