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Britain Votes to Leave European Union; Discussion of Brexit Possible Effects. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired June 24, 2016 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[00:00:30]
HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: A historic day. Welcome back to our viewers joining us from around the world as we witness history being made.
This is CNN's special coverage of the U.K.'s EU referendum. I'm Hala Gorani.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Richard Quest.
The people have spoken. The majesty of the process, whether or not you like the result, the reality tonight is that the British people have voted to leave the European Union. All the major networks have called it. It will be the smallest of majorities. But as I say, the ballot has spoken and it seems -- it appears tonight Brexit has won.
GORANI: Now, the possibility of that British exit from the European Union basically looks more likely than ever. Results are pouring in. All of Britain's major broadcasters we were discussing this say that the Brexit camp will be victorious. The Leave camp, this is what it came down to, performed better than expected in many of the regions across England and Wales. It is news that has made U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage jubilant.
He said let June 23 go down in history as independence day is what he is calling it. Listen.
We don't have Nigel Farage. But essentially that is what he said. But earlier in the evening it seemed more uncertain that Brexit would win. Later on it sounded like a victory speech from Nigel Farage.
QUEST: Before we go to both sides of the vote. Just have one look at the national map at the moment. Remember, this is not like a parliamentary election, nor is it like a U.S. presidential election where you have to have different aspects of this. The national map shows at the moment Leave 51.6 percent; Remain is at 48.3 percent. So Leave actually has a small but persistent gain at the moment.
GORANI: Well, it's all you need, one person, one vote in a referendum. Now, we have reporters in the two camps. Max Foster is at Downing Street where the prime minister, of course, has been campaigning very hard for the Remain vote. Fred Pleitgen is with the Leave party in Westminster.
Let's start with Max Foster first. David Cameron, will he have to step down?
MAX FOSTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, who knows what's going on inside that building behind me? You can safely assume crisis talks are under way. They would have had a plan, presumably. Just how do they enact it?
The situation we've got right now is they are looking at the markets opening in just a few hours time here in London and already the pound is tanking. You've got the euro tanking as well against the dollar. That's questioning the whole European project.
And you have also got predictions of the stock markets falling as well, not just here but around the world. At times like that, you need stability. You don't need a leadership change.
But at the same time, his credibility has been hit massively. He is not seen as a credible leader already in some parts of Westminster even before this unfolded.
The view was that if the Remain campaign didn't win, then the prime minister's position becomes untenable. Does he come out here and create more uncertainty for the markets and resign? Or does he find some sort of compromise and say he's going to resign down the line? Does he say he's going to stay in? That in itself will cause all sorts of uncertainty in the country as well.
He will be having talks with his advisers, also other world leaders I'm sure because this is not just a British problem. It's very much a European and an international problem right now.
GORANI: Fred Pleitgen is at the Leave camp where I expect people are a lot happier than at 10 Downing Street.
FRED PLEITGEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, they certainly are. You could really see how the mood changed here as the night went on. And certainly once the vote was being called by the various big networks here in this country, there were just screams of jubilation that went through this party that was taking place here.
Nigel Farage was also on hand here. He came several times down here. He also changed his mood, typically as well. At the beginning he was still very skeptical. He said that he believed that the Remain campaign might have etched things up. But the last time that he was here which is literally just a couple of minutes ago, Hala, he was raising both arms towards the sky and saying, dare to dream. So you could see that he certainly seems to also be quite surprised at the success of the Leave campaign.
[00:05:05] I actually flat out asked him when I spoke to him whether or not he really believed that this was going to happen today. He told me that he actually didn't. He didn't think it was going to happen. He said that this was something that he had been dreaming of and certainly I think that many people here in the Leave camp, having spoken to them here during the night, I think they believe that they have achieved for what they wanted to achieve a lot more than they believed what would have been possible.
Certainly there is a true sense of history here at the Leave camp. And certainly throughout Britain -- certainly many people of course seeing this a very different way. But here at the Leave party, at the Leave camp, there's a sense of jubilation and people here believe they have made history -- Hala.
GORANI: All right. Well, Fred Pleitgen, history is being made. It's quite simple. The U.K. has made a decision. It's going to leave the European Union. Then, Richard, if I can get your attention --
QUEST: I was looking at the pound. I was not ignoring you.
GORANI: What happens next is important. Will the prime minister resign? Will Scotland down the line say, look, we voted to remain, you guys voted to leave, we need another referendum? It is maybe the beginning of the breakup of the United Kingdom. This is not an overstatement. This is how historic this result is.
QUEST: As we go to talk to Christiane -- we go on to Christiane, I'm just going to show the map of the United Kingdom at the moment and to put that into perspective. You have these vast swaths of England where the majority of people live that voted to leave. You have Scotland which is just about -- not just about, it is all blue. I punch up London and you have mostly blue in London.
Christiane Amanpour at Westminster -- the national picture shows the U.K. is absolutely, completely divided.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is an absolute truism. And that is what's going to make it very difficult going forward.
It's about 5:00 out here. The sun has risen on a completely different U.K. and a completely different EU. There are huge concerns that what is going to happen next is a destiny shift that perhaps many in this country are not quite aware of.
If you look at the latest cover of "The Economist" and, of course, another one will be coming out tomorrow, but "The Economist", which is one of the preeminent economic and political magazines in the world, has written "Divided We Fall". This is just before this vote.
And it's also said that this victory for which Nigel Farage, the anti- immigrant, xenophobic leader of the U.K. Independence Party who forced this referendum on Prime Minister Cameron, he is now the spokesman and face of this victory.
Where is Boris Johnson? Where is Michael Gove? Where are the people who are the official Leave campaigners? Because it wasn't Nigel Farage but he is there.
What we are hearing certainly from people who are worried precisely about this is that they feel that this marks a victory for the kind of economic nationalism to quote this article here for the kind of xenophobia that will imperil the liberal world order that has guaranteed Western prosperity and stability since World War II. And this is a huge, huge issue now that this country and the continent and the world is going to have to face.
They add that Brexit has been peddled on an illusion. This is "The Economist" now. And that when reality interfaces with Brexit it is going to make Britain certainly in the short-term poorer, less innovative, less strong, going as some people say from Great Britain to Little England.
So this is a moment of destiny that many, many people -- the overwhelming, the overwhelming preponderance of experts and independent analysts and allies of the U.K. and the scientists and the academics and the economists and the business and even the sports people -- the overwhelming majority said, stay in the EU.
The people wanted to do something different. And so Europe also is concerned that this is going to have a run on their bank so to speak in terms of politically, and that their anti-establishment populist, nationalist and in many cases xenophobic parties will also get huge wind from this and try to spin off as well. That is a worst case scenario that people are incredibly afraid of at this point -- Hala, Richard.
GORANI: All right. Christiane Amanpour -- thanks very much.
A check of the pound, Richard -- we're under 135. We have sort of stabilized at this low.
QUEST: Yes. I'm guessing what's happening with the pound now, the overnight trading in Asia and what little trading was done in London overnight has taken its tumble. Nothing is really going to happen to that pound until London opens in just two hours from now.
[00:10:09] It has found a floor. It's holding that floor and it will remain that way.
Look quick before we go to Erin McLaughlin in Brussels.
I do want to look at the Dow futures because how New York opens in a couple of hours will also be relevant. The Dow futures down 3.4 percent. Nasdaq is off 4.5. S&P 4.6.
London is going to open down maybe nine or ten percent. And it's highly likely that circuit breakers will have to come in to prevent some sort of panic selling into the market.
GORANI: I think 10 percent would require that. I'm not sure. But I think there is a certainly a level at which it would make absolute sense.
You mentioned Erin McLaughlin in Brussels. That's of course, the European capital where I'm sure not many people will be celebrating today.
QUEST: But Erin, Erin -- just 48 hours ago, Jean-Claude Juncker in his last press conference said no means -- out means out, I think was his exact words. There will be no renegotiation. There will be no compromise. His words -- out means out. Well, he's going to have a headache this morning, isn't he?
ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Richard. And I think that people here in Brussels are going to be waking up to a complete shock.
Nevertheless, the conversations I've been having with diplomats and EU officials in the days leading up to this referendum, people seem to think it would be close. But they thought that in the end there would be a vote, a narrow victory for Remain.
And in the words of one EU official I have been speaking to, a potential Brexit would be an absolute tragedy, a political, economic and symbolic blow for the entire European project with wide ranging ramifications for the EU.
Now, in terms of the various conversations that have been happening here in Brussels, in the days leading up to the referendum, there have been plenty of closed door meetings in terms of crafting a response to all of this. We know there's going to be a meeting in the building just behind me, the European commission that would involve the president of the European Commission, the president of the European Council as well as the rotating EU presidency, the Dutch prime minister.
The wording of that response will have been carefully crafted because a key concern here in Brussels is that what is unfolding in the U.K. right now is symptomatic of a larger problem in other countries. They are very concerned about the rise of euro skepticism, the rise of nationalism and populism in other countries here in the EU.
GORANI: Erin McLaughlin -- thanks very much.
Let's bring in Phil Black. He joins us live from Ember in Scotland which voted overwhelmingly for Remain. What's the reaction there? The early reaction.
PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They are overwhelmingly for remain, Hala, that's right. The position of the Scottish government has been clear throughout. That is that in the event that Scotland votes for Europe but the rest of the country does not, that would indeed trigger reasonable grounds for yet another referendum to consider the question of Scottish independence.
To discuss this now I am joined by Joanna Cherry.
JOANNA CHERRY, SNP MP FOR EMBER SOUTH WEST: Good morning.
BLACK: Good morning. SNP MP for Ember South West. First of all, your reaction to this result? Did you expect this?
CHERRY: Well, we always knew that there's a strong possibility that there would be a Leave vote in England. But I have to confess that the reality of the strong likelihood that's that's what's going to happen is actually quite shocking. BLACK: Your party leader Nicholas Surgeon has made a statement this
morning saying that clearly the Scottish people have spoken clearly, decisively. They want their future to be with Edinburgh -- with Europe, I should say.
How quickly do you think Scotland could now move to reconsider again this issue of independence?
CHERRY: Well, I think we have to wait until the final result is declared before we look at the way forward. I mean clearly what appears to be the position is that it's going to be an overall Leave result across the United Kingdom. As you've just said to your viewers, Scotland has voted decisively 62 percent to 38 percent to remain in the European Union.
Now, during our independence referendum two years ago, we were repeatedly told that the only way to guarantee Scotland's continued membership with the European Union was to vote to remain part of the United Kingdom. And many people voted on the back of that promise. It was a big issue in the independence referendum. I know because I was at the heart of the campaign.
If it now turns out that that promise has been broken then, of course, there is the material significant change in circumstances which we said in our manifesto would justify the Scottish parliament in calling another referendum.
BLACK: Support for Europe, certainly. But given the turnout and the voting figures we have seen, you wouldn't call it huge enthusiasm, would you?
[00:15:10] CHERRY: Well, I don't know about that. We're standing here in the capital city of Edinburgh where my constituency is. The turnout in Edinburgh was 73 percent. The vote for Remain was over 70 percent in Edinburgh. The capital city voted resoundingly for Remain.
I think I'm right in saying that across the country the turnout has been about 62 percent or 63 percent. Of course, two years ago, in the independence referendum, we had a turnout of 85 percent. But that was on the back of a long and immensely positive campaign when Scotland came alive.
There have been problems with the way in which the campaign to remain in the European Union has been run. Both the Conservative Party and Labor Party have been very divided and it's been a very negative scare-mongering campaign.
Only the SNP have run a positive campaign stressing the economic benefits and the social benefits of being part of the European Union. I think the fact that we have had such a resounding victory for Remain reflects the positive campaign and the messages that we put across.
BLACK: The scenario we're talking about now though is not just the breakup of the United Kingdom. Scotland and the rest of U.K. are separate entities. But where Scotland would remain a member of the European Union, the rest of the U.K. wouldn't. There would be a border between them. It's an extraordinary situation. How could it possibly work?
CHERRY: Well, it is an extraordinary situation. And we're clearly facing a very constitutionally-challenging situation in the next 48 hours as matters unfold. But I think the Scottish government's primary objective has to be to reflect the democratically-expressed will of people living in Scotland and to protect the best interests of people living in Scotland and the Scottish economy.
One of the problems of this campaign is that the Leave campaign have been completely unable to tell us what their alternative prospectus for a United Kingdom out with the European Union is. There have been vague talks of trade deals with the European Union.
Countries like Norway and Switzerland that have trade deals with the European Union have open borders. So if England ends up in some sort of treaty with the Europe Union in the long run, if Scotland were to become independent then there are ways around the border. But I would stress that's very much speculation. We don't yet know what the overall result is. What we do know is that Scotland wants to remain part of the European Union.
And that's what the Scottish National Party and the Scottish government will be doing is fighting to make sure the democratic will of voters in Scotland is respected.
BLACK: Extraordinary times. Joanna Cherry -- thank you very much.
CHERRY: Extraordinary.
BLACK: Indeed. It was less than two years ago that Scotland voted on independence. Now the Scottish people are waking up again this morning to begin yet another serious conversation on this issue while the rest of the United Kingdom is also coming to terms with the idea of Britain leaving the European Union. They are also facing very much the possibility of the United Kingdom breaking up as well.
Richard, Hala -- back to you.
GORANI: Absolutely. There is a real possibility this could mean the breakup of the United Kingdom. The Scots might decide to hold another referendum and break away. They did hold one in September of -- I'm having -- 2014.
QUEST: They will hold another referendum.
GORANI: And decided to stay.
QUEST: They will hold another referendum. We will take a moment's break.
You know, it really is one of those evenings that defies the ability to come up with any form of wording to express what's happened in the U.K. tonight.
So we will take a break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[00:21:01] QUEST: On the financial markets, we're seeing an immediate reaction to the voting decision by the British public. The pound, oh no, look it's extended its losses again. I think we were down 13 percent at one point but this might be the worst of the day so far -- down 12.6 percent to $1.3326.
Dow futures are off some 3.7 percent, give or take. London's expected to open down in an hour and a half, probably some nine or ten percent. And expect well perhaps, expect to see some circuit breakers.
Asia, all the major markets in Asia are all lower.
GORANI: And for your information, the pound has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985.
QUEST: There's the Nikkei off now some 7.8 percent.
One question that people are asking on Twitter again and again -- this referendum is not binding on Parliament; Parliament is supreme. Freddie Sayers -- he's the editor in chief of YouGov and political commentator -- is it likely, first of all, that the government dare to suggest that it won't follow the result and go into a negotiation, particularly bearing in mind they could legitimately say, the country is split, this is a victory but it's not a mandate? Let's renegotiate and see what comes out.
FREDDIE SAYERS, EDITOR IN CHIEF, YOUGOV: The prime minister, David Cameron, has been very clear on this. He made a particular point saying that he will respect the view of the British people and if the result going against him, he will begin to implement it straightaway. So he has been very clear on it.
But you are right, technically, that is a technical possibility. It was a big part of the Brexit campaign. They were pointing at other countries such as Ireland which famously had two referendums when the government didn't like the answer to the first one; the recent Greek referendum which rejected a bailout deal that they eventually had to accept.
It was a big part of the campaign, even if you vote for these guys, they may not implement it. But I really do think that tomorrow morning when David Cameron comes to the steps of Number 10 which is what he will be bound to do we will see a vow to implement the will of the British people.
GORANI: Is he going to survive politically?
SAYERS: That's a harder question.
GORANI: Yes. Because how can he? He called -- this was his promise, in order to unify his party and those to the right of the center --
SAYERS: My guess is we will see him for longer than tomorrow. I think there's almost no chance he's going to resign straight away. There's great instability. He will feel that he needs to carry on and all of his party will want him to carry on to oversee this period.
QUEST: Simon Smith joins us to talk about what's happening in the markets. He is head of research at the Pro's broker, FX Pro. He joins us from London, which voted remarkably, overwhelmingly to Remain.
And we're seeing the pound down 12 percent. It seems to have found some sort of flaw. Would you expect much more volatility against the pound when London, which is the largest forex market, opens in an hour or so?
SIMON SMITH, FX PRO: I wouldn't -- given the amount of volatility we have already seen I think we are going to remain relatively stable. A lot of people have been at their desks in London advising trading desks around the world. You know, I think it's now a question of waiting for the opening of the stock markets as you said and see how that goes -- it's not going to be pretty -- and then through the day seeing the political developments.
As you said, Cameron said he's going to enact this pretty much straightaway. But there are so many unanswered questions not least in the FX market.
I think there's risks certainly from the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank -- both have seen their currencies rise significantly. They could come out and say something that could cause more disruption to market.
QUEST: Would you expect the bank of England certainly to put liquidity into the market for any banks that aren't going to have liquidity issue as a result of this -- any turbulence, if you? Would you expect to see intervention by the bank?
[00:25:05] SMITH: I would be pretty surprised to see actual foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of England. As I said, I think far more likely is you see it from either the Bank of Japan or the SNB both of whom are bystanders in this and both of whom have seen their currencies rise significantly. You've seen dollar-yet touch below the hundred level, which is quite a significant line in the sand there. I think the finance minister is holding a press conference very soon if not already. We are watching that with closeness.
You know, I don't think we're quite in a sort of early 90s sort of the er-rem style situation, you know, with regards to the currency. I don't think the Bank of England at this point in time will be concerned about sort of sustained falls.
QUEST: Right. But -- the dollar is rising against all comers on the back of the safe haven theory, isn't it?
SMITH: That's naturally to be expected. You have seen in the last two weeks, you know, a lot of risk aversion in markets. Yes, it has been most prevalent on the Swiss and yen, still to a degree on the dollar there's been an all -- all investors have been -- want to put on risk positive trades have been holding back. So let's see how this goes. We have had this result. So yes, the dollar is going to be a natural beneficiary of the uncertainty. You have seen euro-dollar move down quite significantly as well. But I think for the next, you know, four to 24 and probably 48 hours going into the next -- and early part of next week, I think it's looking how things are going to pan out.
I think central banks naturally just on the liquidity side, the Bank of England is already giving liquidity and I think that will continue.
QUEST: Sir -- thank you for joining us. I know you've got a busy few hours ahead. We will talk more about it as the hours move on.
GORANI: Well, as we continue to keep our eye on the markets -- because this is the immediate gauge, Richard, in terms of how the world is reacting.
We haven't had the political reaction yet. We haven't seen David Cameron. We haven't heard from the Eurozone, European leaders. Certainly Angela Merkel and Germany and the president of France Francoise Hollande and the governments of both those leaders are going to be disappointed. But elsewhere in the Eurozone as well we can expect disappointment.
We're going to be looking at that.
We're going to be also be breaking down some of the results across the United Kingdom and talk about what this could mean for the country, for the union and also for the transatlantic relationship between the U.K. and the United States.
QUEST: The word historic, unique, ground breaking --
GORANI: -- is overused.
QUEST: They are overused. But I can tell you tonight, we are absolutely sailing into unchartered waters.
GORANI: Absolutely.
So we're going to take a quick break. We will be right back with a lot more of our breaking news coverage.
[00:27:52] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: It is 5:30 in the morning in the United Kingdom, midnight 30 in New York and 9:30 on the west coast of the United States. Wherever you are watching, a very good day to you.
As history is made, the possibility of a British exit from the European Union is now just about a racing certainty. With more than 85 percent of the districts reporting, CNN predicts that the U.K. will leave the EU.
The leave camp has been performing better than expected in its regions across England and Wales. And even though not one seat has been won in Scotland for leave, it doesn't matter. It has made news that as the Independent Party, Nigel Farage, is jubilant, is that that June the 23rd will go down in history as Britain's Independence Day.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NIGEL FARAGE, U.K INDEPENDENCE PARTY LEADER: Ladies and gentlemen, dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom.
This, you know, if the predictions now are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: To the houses of parliaments now, Christiane Amanpour is there with guest.
And Christiane, one thought, though, no matter what the pundits and experts say, you know, tonight the people have spoken. They have made their decision. And the establishment may hate it, but they have to respect it.
AMANPOUR: Well, I mean, Richard, you are absolutely right. And therein, lies the dilemma. Because this is unprecedented, because it has never happened before, no country has ever withdrawn voluntarily from the European Union. We were going to be in a period of some uncertainty, which we we'll discuss with our guest here, about how it goes forward in the parliament behind me and how it goes forward in negotiations with Europe.
So, we're going to talk now quickly to Pieter Cleppe. Now, he is the Brussels Head of the office known as Open Europe.
Pieter Cleppe, thanks for joining me. In your heart of hearts, were you expecting this?
PIETER CLEPPE, OPEN EUROPE BRUSSELS OFFICE HEAD: I was definitely thinking it could be a possibility. The race was extremely tight.
AMANPOUR: What happens next? I mean, is it going to be Europe sort of, you know, getting ever closer, battening down the hatches, standing against Great Britain in order not to tempt other countries to do the same? Or is it Europe trying to do everything it can to make this easy for a Brexit Britain?
CLEPPE: I suspect the second will happen. You will see some instincts, especially at the E.U. level among E.U. commissioner officials, who think that now they should punish U.K. in a bit to try to avoid that other countries may consider leaving as well. But, of course, given the stakes, if you would restrict financial trade from the U.K. into the continent, you would actually drive up the cost of investment on the continent.
If Britain in retaliation would impose tariffs on, for example, German cars, this will, of course, cause a lot of damage for German industry. So you would see a massive development now to try to deal with this and to try to keep trade as open as possible. AMANPOUR: So that's for that aspect. What about the political aspect? Because all we have heard from European Leaders is that they are very concerned about a so-called "run on the bank". I don't mean literally, although you can see what's happening to the sterling right now. But in terms of other similar movements in Europe, doing the same kind of thing?
CLEPPE: Well, there's exchange rate volatility. But I don't think this is directly related to the health of the banking system. However, the political fallout will be enormous.
[00:35:00]
Basically, what has happened is that British people have not expressed so much desire against the idea of trades. Those ultimately responsible for all of this are to be found in Brussels. They have basically diverted a project that was oriented on removing trade barriers into something that was much more political, a project that was intent on mingling into national budget decisions into organizing transfers between European countries and even intermingling into what is a sensitive issue all over the world, asylum policy.
AMANPOUR: So we have already heard in the run-up to this vote the very powerful German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble saying that there is not going to be an ever closer more Europe response to this. Because he said people will think we're nuts if we go into that. That we haven't heard what the British people have said. So what are they going to do? You just say, you know, it's up to Europe to fix itself. How will that happen? How can you see that happen? Is it possible?
CLEPPE: Well, European Council President Donald Tusk has already committed that within a few months there will be a major conclave to deal with the future of the European Inion. And then I think when the E.U. asks itself the question, "Why are we so unpopular?" The obvious conclusion is not that it provides a framework so cheap airlines can offer services all over the continent. People tend to like that aspect of the E.U. So the E.U. should keep that aspect.
But clearly, people don't like interventions into very sensitive national budget policy, which is closely interrelated with democracy, also transfers asylum policy. These kinds of aspects of the E.U. project should be ditched to put it bluntly.
AMANPOUR: Pieter Cleppe of the Open Europe there in Brussels, thanks for joining me. We go back to Hala and Richard in the studio now.
HALA GORANI, CNN NEWS ANCHOR: All right, Christiane, the German Economy Minister has tweeted, and I'm not sure if it's in German or -.
QUEST: It was in German.
GORANI: It was German. And the translated tweet is, "Damn, damn, a bad day for Europe #EuroReferendum."
QUEST: And I'm going to show you that bad day as he sees it and how it developed. Join the cause of the night. This is how it looks at the moment. More than a million people have now voted in favor of -- a majority to leave. 51.7 to 48.2. It's looking that it's going to get to 52 percent before the night is over. And you can see immediately Northern Ireland is all blue for Remain. The whole of Scotland, there is from New York to the Scotland to the western islands, right going to the ground in region.
There is a one part of Scotland that voted to leave. But look at England, a very different situation. Birmingham, right in the mid lands, Birmingham is Britain's second largest city. It should have voted to remain. And by the narrowest of margins reflecting the national vote, Birmingham voted to leave.
And the moment you saw that on a turnout of 63 percent, you pretty much knew the night was over for Remain. Same for Sandilands, up in the northeast, just look at the swath of northeast from Northumberland to Tyneside or Tyne and Wear, right the way to middle and Sandilands itself. 61 percent, that's higher than was expected, nearly twice as much as the others.
So throughout the night, the leave campaign performed better than expected with larger majorities and dwindles down the Remain vote. And then you get, of course, those places like Manchester, one of Britain's third largest cities. I think it is. It voted 60 percent to remain on a low turnout. That number should have been higher if remain was going to stand any chance.
Put it all together. Very quickly just want to show you London, the capital very similar to Scotland, mostly remain with a couple of leaves on the eastern side towards and the western side as well.
Overall, the majority is now well over -- just over a million -- 1,100,000. It's going to be 52 percent by the time we close.
GORANI: Thomas Raines with Chatham House, when we say the country is divided, it's really a division between England saved for London and Scotland, and the other regions. I mean, England as a whole pretty much voted apart from London to leave.
THOMAS RAINES, CHATMAN HOUSE EUROPE PROGRAMME MANAGER: Overwhelmingly, yes. This was, you know, aspects.
[00:40:00]
So these are rooted to some extent in a concept of Englishness, which has been neglected by national politics for quite a long time. And it doesn't seem to have held any lead votes as the implications that this might have had for the continuation of the United Kingdom in its current form. And we've seen the comments already from Nicola Sturgeon about the implications it has for potentially Scottish Independence or Scotland's future inside the E.U. It's presumably the remainder of the U.K. outside.
It's interesting that Wales has voted to leave. And there have been some trends in support for the U.K Independence Party. And Wales is not a total surprise but I think Remain will be disappointed.
GORANI: Well, I'm interested in this concept of Englishness. What do you mean that it's been neglected by the establishment? What do you mean by that exactly? Is it true that the areas of England that are depressed economically older, maybe they feel they have not been heard, they disenfranchised, they have suffered economically? And it's the fault of globalization and the establishment that has made money off of our backs and forgotten about us.
RAINES: I wouldn't say purely that the concept has been neglected by the establishment. That you saw, for example, after the Scottish referendum was won inside of remaining in the union, that immediately this notion of English votes, so English laws came up, the sense that England was the incomplete part in the devolution puzzle of the United Kingdom. It's the largest. It's, you know, 85 percent or so of the population of Great Britain.
And if you look at the survey data, there're people who say -- who identify themselves as English rather than British. The overwhelming is that for eventually this people who identified themselves British rather than English at the reverse.
GORANI: Interesting.
QUEST: This whole thing, whichever way one looks at it, I mean, the Europeans should have seen it coming to some extent. Brussels should have seen it coming. The governments in London should have seen it coming. This was an accident waiting to happen.
RAINES: Certainly, we have known for a very long time that public dissatisfaction with the European Union in the U.K. was very high and it's high in a number of other European countries. And that public hostility to the levels of migration at the moment was particularly high.
I think there was a general view and it wasn't just government. But it was markets that got this profoundly wrong as well, betting markets, financial markets, everyone has got this prediction wrong.
GORANI: All right. Thomas Raines, thanks very much.
We have some live images from Dover, by the way. Dover which I'm not exactly sure, but my guess is they -- well, yeah, just looking at the map there, there was a vote to leave there in Dover, the white cliffs of Dover. You can see France on a clear day from Dover.
QUEST: Very appropriate that we look at Dover, the closest place between Britain and France, just 32 miles over the English Channel.
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AMANPOUR: Well, as this result begins to sink in, we are continuing our analysis with guests and experts. John Peet is going me. He's the Political LGCT (ph) Economist, which has taken the position and wanted the U.K. to remain inside the E.U., and also Crispin Blunt, Conservative M.P. and Chairman of the Foreign Affair Select Committee in parliament, behind me who was for Remain.
So, let me ask you, Crispin, no for Brexit, sorry, it's so, so, so, so late.
CRISPIN BLUNT, CHAIRMAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE: It has been a long lie.
AMANPOUR: It's been a long lie. But of course, I know you are for Brexit.
BLUNT: Yes.
AMANPOUR: So, how do you react to the leader of Germany's Social Democrats, because everybody is trying to watch them figure this out, who's tweeted, "Damn, a bad day for Europe"?
And we've seen what happened to the pound, a bad day for pound.
BLUNT: Of course, it's a difficult day for the European Union. The markets are priced in remain. And say you got the double affects of it not being Remain and the country having voted for Brexit unexpectedly as far as the markets were concerned. So, there's going to be a big market correction.
We need to remember the United Kingdom has now just taken a very big strategic decision about its role in the world. And of course, there's going to be some short-term turbulence while everyone gets used to the new reality and we work out over the course of the next two years with our partners just what the new arrangements are going to be between the U.K. and the European Union. But this is all going to calm down in due course of time.
But in any big organization and this is a big important country that makes a big strategic change, there is -- and obviously, there are likely to be upfront uncertainties and upfront costs. We have now got to manage those.
AMANPOUR: Well, you know, Crispin Blunt talks rationally about what he hopes will be a smooth progression into the future. Do you see that happening?
JOHN PEET, POLITICAL ECONOMIST: No, I don't. I mean I do think obviously both Britain and the rest of the European Union will now need to approach this as calmly and maturely as they can. But I'm afraid I do subscribe all side to the view of almost every economist. It's extraordinary how the economists as quite as united these years. They have been on this one. But the impacts of this age will be to damage the British economy and all state because it damages the British economy, damage the European economy. It will be very bad for the European Union. And other countries in the European Union will take it very badly. And they will not want to be generous to Britain in terms of trade arrangements and negotiations for leaving. So I think we're in for a long period of very difficult negotiations during, which the British economy will suffer.
AMANPOUR: And damn, a bad day for Europe doesn't suggest a leader who is interested in immediately rolling out the red carpet. I want to -- .
BLUNT: Well, we have -- the prime minister is going to stay yes.
AMANPOUR: Well, you say that. But really?
BLUNT: That's what he said he's going to do. And the vast majority of the MPs, who supported Brexit, have asked him to say. Frankly, I regard it as his duty to stay because he's --.
AMANPOUR: But is that to clear up the mess?
BLUNT: No. It's against the -- that he is the right person to conduct the negotiations with our partners over the course of the next two years. He also has a mandate from the electorate and this is only a year old. He has the authority of the Conservative Parliamentary Party behind him as is clear from the statement of support from the MPs who are taking a different position to him today. So this prime minister is very conscious of his duty. He will do it.
AMANPOUR: He has said he will do it. But I just want to ask you, I'm going to read you something that your own magazine put out in the run- up to this.
The liberal levers are pedaling in illusion. On contact with reality of Brexit, their plans will fall apart. If Britain leaves the E.U., which it should has, it is likely to end up poorer, less open, less innovative, far from reclaiming its global outlook. It will become less influential and parochial. And without Britain, all of Europe would be worse off.
I mean, that's a pretty harsh indictment, an illusion and reality colliding with Brexit.
PEET: Surprisingly, I think there was a vision associated with some Brexiteers, possibly with, probably like, Crispin. The Britain would leave in order to then become more liberal, more out-looking, more global, and more open to migration.
But I'm afraid the people who voted for Brexit, are people in the north of England, people in the east of England. They're not interested in that vision. They want to restrict migration. They don't want a more liberal, less regulated, more global country. They want more protection. They feel the globalization has been bad for them. They feel free trade has been bad for them.
And I think that it's very unlikely that those people would be happy with a decision, for example, to go for the Norway option, where you have to accept continuing free movement of labor. I also don't think Mr. Cameron will survive as Prime Minister, because he was so strongly identified with the Remain Campaign. [00:50:00]
He said he would have resigned over Scotland had Scotland voted independent. Now he lost this campaign. I can't see how he can continue in office.
AMANPOUR: And very quickly, worried about the division, because in England, who pretty much voted to go, all the others said stay. But now, Northern Ireland is talking about, you know, having a vote United Ireland. Scotland is potentially going to open up a new referendum. I mean --.
(CROSSTALK)
BLUNT: Wales voted in exactly the same way as England did. There was always going to be the Scottish issue if this was the overall result. And that's going to have to be faced. And the people of Scotland may very well demand a future choice. They will probably have to wait until there's another Scottish election. There's a mandate from the Scottish government of the next, next election to seek that.
But that's -- but these are things that have -- can be managed. We shouldn't get too excited about it. What's needed now is their calmness and realization is exactly what --.
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AMANPOUR: It's not calm in the markets right now.
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BLUNT: That's what the markets do. But this is -- we know what the bottomline is. World Trade Organization trade in terms with --.
AMANPOUR: Oh, my goodness. Well, that's a whole another conversation. The former World Trade Organization chief told me, it's an illusion. But we'll get to that.
BLUNT: It will take a long time.
AMANPOUR: And it'll take a long time. But we will get to that. I have to toss to a break. Crispin Blunt, John Peet, no fees (ph).
BLUNT: Thank you.
AMANPOUR: Thank you very much. Thank you for joining me. Back to a break now.
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GORANI: Welcome back to our continuing coverage of the U.K. E.U. Referendum. A new dawn and important moment in history, the U.K. has voted to leave the E.U.
QUEST: Let me just give you a national number, if I may.
GORANI: OK.
QUEST: 370 seats have been declared. There were 382 in total. That's 380 local authorities in the United Kingdom plus Gibraltar and, of course, Northern Ireland, which is counted as one.
[00:55:00]
So, 370 have declared. And the total number of vote is cast so far.
You are really good at this with your percentages. It was 46.5 million people.
GORANI: Well, I know how to calculate a percentage. It doesn't make me a Nobel Prize Laureate. OK.
QUEST: Exactly one million, such a few million.
GORANI: OK. By the way, let's check quickly the pound because Nina Dos Santos. And the pound, basically we can say fell off a cliff. You see it on the graphic there. Down 12 percent. The FTSE 100 Futures are also down, Nina, this is -- I wonder if circuit breakers will have to kick in today.
NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: We already have the circuit breakers here in London. But we do have them in Asia. I mean, that's where we could see some circuit breakers that could really go.
GORANI: There are no circuit breakers in London? But do they shut down trading?
DOS SANTOS: I don't know. It's very red that we have seen trading be shut down in the FTSE 100. Richard, you remember, we don't really get that -- we don't also get capital control on big currency like the pound as well. That would be a huge issue.
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DOS SANTOS: It would be very surprising largely because London is home to 41 percent of the world's global FX Trading, so you really couldn't send these kinds of signals.
It's interesting to talk about signals because the bank of England Governor believe more county is going to be responding to this historic decision in an hour or so. And people will be expecting him to put extra money on the table, put forth some plans back for liquidity, just try to (ph) buffer to these markets as we see them continue to fold.
GORANI: Yes.
DOS SANTOS: British pound at the lowest level since 1985 that eclipses the declines that we saw back in 1992, which is of course Black Friday. And it brings us back to the stock market crash 30-old years ago, which is Black Wednesday. And Luis (ph) want to mention Black Fridays because one of the big interventions in favor of the Remain Camp in the run-up to the last few days of campaigning, Hala, was from George Soros, the man who made $1 billion betting against the British pound.
(CROSSTALK)
DOS SANTOS: Well, he said, look, it could fall down to run about 130, maybe even 115 further down the line. And he was telling people --.
GORANI: He is not far off from the numbers now.
DOS SANTOS: Well, he's not far off from the 130. 130 was more or less the prediction of many people in the city had as a flow.
I heard you say earlier on, which is that it seemed that the pound maybe have bottomed out at about 132. At the moment, found some resistance, some flaw there, maybe two. But, of course, it all depends on what Mark Carney has to say later on.
QUEST: It's going to be soothing. I'm pretty certain in that. But let's see what happens when he does speak.
GORANI: We'll be right back after a quick break. Stay with us.
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