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Erdogan Calls for Global Fight against Terror; Attack at Istanbul Airport Bears Hallmarks of ISIS: Heroes among 239 Wounded in Ataturk Bombings; U.S. Strikes 500-Plus ISIS Vehicles Fleeing Fallujah; Leadership Battles Heat UP in Brexit Aftermath; Economic Fallout from Brexit; Many Scots Worried Brexit Will Hurt Their Businesses. Aired 2-3a ET
Aired June 30, 2016 - 02:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:00:14] HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Hala Gorani. We are live at Istanbul's international airport with the very latest this morning on the investigation into the triple suicide bombing terror attack here.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning from London. I'm John Vause, outside parliament, where politicians are scrambling to figure out who among them will lead the country out of the E.U.
AMARA WALKER, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Amara Walker, in Los Angeles, with more on air strikes aimed at ISIS militants
We want to welcome our viewers in the United States and around the world. This is CNN.
GORANI: Welcome, everybody. Another victim, sadly, of the terrorist attack that happened here just about 36 hours ago at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport has died, bringing the grim total to 42. More than 120 people are still being treated in the hospital. And investigators are combing through all of this surveillance video from inside the airport, including these new pictures to try to figure out who the three attackers were, what group were they a part of.
Meanwhile friends and family are saying good-bye to those killed in Wednesday's attack. Hundreds of mourners turned out for the funeral of an airport customs officer who lost his life.
And the Turkish president is calling for a unified global fight. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RECEP TAYYIP ERODOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translation): There is no humanitarian explanation for this. There is no Islamic explanation or aspect of this. Not at all. These people are not Muslim. They were going to be the occupants of hell. They have secured their places in hell. Causing the deaths of one single person is equal to causing the death of all humanity. This is what our region says. How can one do such things? (END VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One, two, three, four, five. One, two, three, four, five.
GORANI: All right, here we go. Alexandra Field, live television. Difficult circumstance. Joining me live in Istanbul.
You've been following this story. Now 42 people dead and we're learning more about how the attacks unfolded, as well.
ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We are. That's what investigators have been piecing together trying to figure out how this coordinated attack was pulled off. We know you have the entrance to this airport behind us. The attackers did (INAUDIBLE). They broke off and apart and hit the airport in three different places. You had one attacker who headed into the departure hall. We know there was a confrontation with a security officer who saw this person with an A.K.-47. Shot the attacker. He went down, denoted his explosive. You also had somebody who hit the arrival hall, entering that hall with an A.K.-47. We understand from investigators that he was firing shots into the hall. And it appears he detonated his suicide vest without ever having cleared the security gate. Then you have the third person who detonated his bomb outside the airport.
This airport has been telling us since we've been here, and Turkish officials, that they surpass the international standard for airport security. They have check points at the doors, which is something you don't see in airport he throughout the world.
GORANI: We didn't have it in Brussels, for instance. But it is the softest of soft targets. Regardless of whether you have an outer perimeter, you still have people waiting in lines, crowding at doorways trying to get in, regardless of how far out the security perimeter is.
FIELD: Right. And that's exactly the kind of target that officials say ISIS has looked at. Now, ISIS hasn't claimed in the responsibility for the attack here in Turkey, but have Turkish intelligence officials and officials throughout the U.S. saying that this does bear some of the hallmarks of ISIS, looking for a soft target where you would see an international crowd, you know the casualties, the victims, the people who are killed come from a range of different countries.
GORANI: And, Alexandra, remarkably, this airport reopened only hours after the attack. When we flew in, we basically navigated through the arrivals hall just meters away from where a suicide bomber blew himself up.
FIELD: The airport opened five hours after those attacks. I was personally startled when I arrived here and you walked through the corridors and there was an energy and eerie feeling here. It was hard to tell so much blood had been spilled here. There was barely a sign of it. They frankly came in, they cleaned this up. They had investigators come in and do their work expeditiously and they started the reconstruction work as early as yesterday just to get people in and out of the door. When you talk to people here, it was important to them to get this airport opens as a sign of their resolve here against terrorists who would perpetuate these attacks.
GORANI: Tell us about the victims here. Most of them were Turkish.
FIELD: Most were Turkish. They also included airport personnel. But come from a number of different countries. 42 in total, with a 22- year-old Turkish woman succumbing to her injuries in a hospital overnight. A lot of the victims, their bodies and remains have been returned to the families, but there are still families waiting for word on their loved ones. We know not all of those killed have been identified.
[02:05:30] GORANI: Alexandra, thanks very much.
We'll have a closer look at the victims, those whose identity we know right now, including a newlywed couple coming back or going to their honeymoon.
Thank you very much for joining us, Alexandra Field.
As we mentioned, Turkish authorities say 37 of the victims have been identified as Turkish. There were at least 13 foreign nationals. 23 have been identified as Turkish, five from Saudi Arabia, two from Iraq. Other victims were known to be from China, Iran, Jordan, Tunisia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. This, of course, is a reflection of the international nature of this big traveling hub that is the Istanbul airport.
CIA Director John Brennan said he would personally be surprised if ISIS was not plotting attacks inside the United States. Brennan told the Council on Foreign Relations that the Istanbul attack certainly bears the hallmark of that group's modus operandi.
Listen to Brennan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN BRENNAN, CIA DIRECTOR: To my knowledge, there is no credible claim of responsibility at this point. But that's not very surprising. In most instances, if not all, ISIS has not claimed credit or responsibility for the attacks against Turkey. I think what they do is they carry out these attacks to gain the benefits from it in terms of sending a signal to our Turkish partners. So at the same time, not wanting to essentially maybe alienate some of those individuals inside of Turkey that they may still be trying to gain support of.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, Gayle Tzemach Lemmon is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is also the author of "Ashley's War," the contributing editor for "Atlantic Media" for Defense One as well.
More than a hundred people, as I mentioned, are still in hospitals so, really, the human toll of this is tremendous. Gayle, tell us about what you believe ISIS, if this is, indeed, an ISIS attack what they're trying to achieve. We're seeing more and more attacks against vulnerable civilians here.
GAYLE TZEMACH LEMMON, SENIOR FELLOW, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS & AUTHOR & CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, ATLANTIC MEDIA, DEFENSE ONE: That's right. The worst is inside Iraq, inside Syria, the more a lot of people are watching very closely and say this is the kind of thing you're going to see more of, attacks against soft targets where they can hit civilians and send a message. They clearly sent a message to Turkey, which is we can hit you in places where you're vulnerable and we can affect a huge industry to your economy, the tourist industry. For so long, Turkey has been seen as a safe haven in a tough neighborhood. What you see now with ISIS and what it's doing, it's really hit soft targets and make a big splash in a terrible way.
GORANI: And, Gayle, many people have asked me, why doesn't ISIS claim responsibility for attacks inside Syria when they were pretty quick, usually within 28 to 48 hours to claim responsibility for other attacks against civilian soft targets elsewhere.
TZEMACH LEMMON: Well, and this is the thing, right? When they can still get the pay off without claiming it, it's almost more in their interest, as the CIA director, was walking about. You can create questions around who exactly is responsible, while also raising questions about was this the Kurdish forces that Turkey is also currently fighting. So you can do what you need to get done in your view without alienating potential allies within Turkey and sending a very clear message that, if the people think this is you, you have the capability to strike even as the U.S. and Iraq forces are inflicting real damage on ISIS and the territory it holds in Syria and Iraq.
GORANI: All right. Inflicting real military damage tour, but this asymmetrical warfare that involves, you know, sending three murders with A.K.-47s into airports is pretty much virtually, unless you want to live in a permanent military martial law state, impossible to protect yourself against 24/7. At some point, what should the strategy be here to try to protect vulnerable civilian populations from these attacks?
TZEMACH LEMMON: This is the thing. When you talk to them earlier, they'll say there's no 100 percent guarantee of safety and security, as much as all of us would like to have one. When you live in open societies, this is where they will hit. They find the soft spots, they find where civilian populations are most vulnerable, and that's where they attack. There's a lot of discussion today among folks I talk to about, as they lose territory and they take defeats on the battlefield in Syria, in Iraq, as you see them suffer defeats there, then they pull back. They don't come and fight with us here on the ground in Syria or Iraq, but strike where you live. And that does a lot of things, including instill fear in all of us, we're sitting here talking about it, right, and it makes people feel vulnerable everywhere they are and gives them this look -- however many people you think they have, it gives them a sense of being strong.
[02:10:47] GORANI: Right. And you still that festering wound that is Syria. So many say until that is resolved, this problem will not go away.
Thank Gayle Tzemach Lemmon.
More than a hundred people are still in the hospital after the attack. One man was badly wounded trying to help save others. Many individual stories of heroism, so often the case in these strategies.
Matt Rivers talked with that man's brother.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MATT RIVERS, ASIA-PACIFIC EDITOR (voice-over): Romer Hurdle (ph) walked into the hospital Wednesday night and the doctors had called him in to tell him whether his brother would make it.
We met him earlier that afternoon when he told us at the exact moment the attacks happened, he was on the phone talking to his brother Inden (ph), who was in the airport. Inden (ph) described the attack aloud as the terror unfolded.
ROMAN HURDLE (ph), BROTHER OF ATTACK SURVIVOR (through translation): I heard a noise in the background and he said, brother, there's been a bomb. People are lying on the ground. I have to go help. RIVERS: Hurdle says he told his brother not to go, that there could
be another blast. But Inden (ph) insisted and then came a bang and his brother was severely injured when a second blast went off.
"He told me over the phone he was hurt badly. I told him I was coming to get him and then he passed out."
Emergency personnel found him unconscious, wounded, like so many others, by shrapnel. It's the latest in a series of attacks for Turkey this year. The effect has been brutal.
"I feel very insecure," says Icret Idogan (ph), whose cousin was injured and remains in intensive care. "There is no security in this country. You can say leave home in the morning, but there's no guarantee you're coming back."
It's a reality facing so many families now as some gathered overnight Thursday at this had hospital near the airport, hugging, crying, waiting for any news on their loved ones.
When Romer (ph) walked out from his visit with Inden's (ph) doctors, he was stoic. "Nothing has changed," he said. It's still not clear whether his brother will live or die.
Matt Rivers, CNN, Istanbul, Turkey.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: Well, Turkey is in mourning. We'll continue our coverage of the attacks at Ataturk Airport in a little bit.
But for now, back to Amara, in Los Angeles.
WALKER: Thank you, Hala, for that.
U.S. and coalition forces are striking ISIS militants as they retreat from their rocky city of Fallujah. The Iraqi defense ministry says warplanes hit a convoy of more than 500 vehicles, killing dozens of ISIS fighters.
I spoke with CNN military analyst, Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona about the strikes.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: We've been watching Fallujah for some time now, since the battle started three, four weeks ago. We expected that at some point the -- the remaining ISIS fighters were going to make a run for it. They'll try to get up to Mosul to set up defenses there. So it was just a matter of time before they left. And we've had that area just completed ringed with surveillance sensors, airborne sensors, drones. And it didn't matter what time, day or night, they went, they would be detected. Once they were out in the open, virtually dozens of aircraft came in on them. This was a joint operation. It was well done. The U.S. Air Force, Iraqi Army Aviation and Iraqi Air Force. Almost all precision-guided munitions.
WALKER: Tell us more about that as we take a look at this video of the airstrikes. There's a flashes there. What kind of missiles? I know you went through that a little bit. And how -- can you talk about how these air strikes were carried out?
FRANCONA: Yeah. Of course, it's all tightly controlled by the combined air operations center. They're watching it and telling the pilots which targets they should go after, which weapons they should employ. But for the most part, the pilots are using laser-guarded weapon weapons. When you see these missiles coming off in front of the camera, those are Hellfire missiles coming from Iraqi helicopters. They're going after vehicles and heavy weapons. In the video, you tiny flashed going along the road. Those are cluster munitions, bomblets dropped out of a larger bomb that go after individual vehicles. So this was very well done and caused a lot of damage to an ISIS convoy.
[02:15:17] WALKER: And if we talk about the big picture here on where this fight stands against ISIS. It's been almost two years since the U.S. coalition launched airstrikes against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. How much territory has ISIS lost? Are we talking about half, most of its territory? Where do things stand?
FRANCONA: You can use numbers like they lost half their territory, but a lot of territory there's nothing in it. What's significant are the towns that they've lost. They've lost Ramadi, Tikrit and Fallujah. Fallujah was the first town we took, and that's significant. This is the last ISIS stronghold in Anbar Province. This is the location in which all of those attacks in Baghdad, and that was launched from Fallujah. This will eliminate that. It will push ISIS back on the defensive and push them further north. Now what you're going to see is the Iraqi army reorganizing and moving up the Tigris Valley for the eventual liberation of Mosul. It'll take a long time but we can see they set up the battle properly and they're moving up there.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALKER: We'll take a short break from here. The latest on the political reverberations following the U.K. Brexit vote, just ahead. We'll look at the leadership contenders, next
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[02:20:33] VAUSE: Welcome back, everybody. It has just gone 20 minutes past the hour in London.
The race is on to fill the political vacuum in the United Kingdom in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Leave leader, Boris Johnson, and Interior Minister Teresa May are among the Conservatives expected to announce their bids to succeed David Cameron as prime minister. And Andrea Eagle is expected to launch her challenge to the incumbent Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party. He lost a confidence vote on Tuesday, but is refusing to resign despite a revolt among the parliamentary party.
In his first appearance before parliament since the Brexit vote, Mr. Cameron had a very blunt message for Mr. Corbyn.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: It might be in my party's interest for him to sit there. It's not in the national interest. And I would say, for heaven's sake, man, go.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Let's bring in CNN political contributor, Robin Oakley.
That outburst by David Cameron was extraordinary, wasn't it?
ROBIN OAKLEY, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, but he will partly blame Jeremy Corbyn, who fought the campaign in the referendum for the fact that they lost the referendum. There's a real personal animus behind that too.
VAUSE: Let's look to the leadership issues which will play out in the next couple of hours. Let's start with Labour. The potential candidates who want to lead the Labour Party have to put their hands up and that's when the ball starts rolling.
OAKLEY: Yeah. One of those, Angela Eagle, very experienced, popular M.P., goes down well with the moderates, even though she's on the left of the party, been an M.P. since 1992, experienced as an economic minister. She has a sister in Labour politics.
VAUSE: We won't have any sort of results for another 10 weeks?
OAKLEY: Oh, no. We won't get that until probably the time of the Labour Party contracts.
VAUSE: And we have the similar situation with Conservatives as well. We won't know who the next prime minister is, even though they're putting their hands up today.
OAKLEY: While on Labour, this is not just a battle over two takes over from Jeremy Corbyn, if anybody does. He may well still win again because he has support of activists in the country. This is a battle for the Labour Party's soul. Jeremy Corbyn is hanging in there. The hard left of this party have never reached this sort of level in the party for decades. Once he goes, they will feel like their chance is gone.
VAUSE: Like a Bernie Sanders of the Labour Party.
OAKLEY: Absolutely, indeed.
VAUSE: So we have a situation now where we would not know who the Labour Party is for 10 weeks. On the Conservative side, won't know until September. So we've got this situation, both major political parties will both have lame-duck leaders.
OAKLEY: Absolutely desperate, yes. David Cameron, he's a wallpaper minister now. He's thrown away all his power and he said all big decisions will be taken by his successor. The most crucial of those decisions will be leading Britain out of the European Union.
VAUSE: That brings us to the two likely candidates. Six have put or their hands or ten for the leadership. But it comes down to Boris Johnson, very popular, and Teresa May, not quite as popular.
OAKLEY: Yeah. This is going to be a fascinating contest. And it is starting off on a note which I think will intensify. It's really going be about class as much as anything. One of the things that held back David Cameron and his Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, both of them educated at private schools, coming from rich backgrounds. And Teresa May, who has first run on Boris Johnson, has put out an article in "The Times" today explaining what she'll do as leader of the party. Talking about working not just for the privileged few, but for everyone regardless of who they are and where they come from. She said some need to be told that what government does isn't a game, it's a serious business --
(CROSSTALK)
OAKLEY: Absolutely.
VAUSE: The situation though for Teresa May, she was firmly in the Remain Camp. David Cameron said the next prime minister must be leading the U.K. out of the European Union. How can she do that?
OAKLEY: Because she wasn't that firmly in the Remain Camp. Those that knew her felt she had strong Euro-skeptic sympathies. She stayed with the Remain Camp partly out of loyalty to David Cameron and partly on conviction on one or two specific issues. But she never took a significant part in the campaign itself. VAUSE: And she will benefit from the Stop Boris camp with in the
Conservative Party. There's also this tradition among Conservatives that the most popular candidate doesn't usually win.
(CROSSTALK)
[01:25:] OAKLEY: Nope. Time after time, this has happened that the initial favorite has somehow faded during the campaign. And Teresa May, again, right credentials. A priest's daughter, state educated, not at an expensive private school. She has been a former party chairman. She's also showed courage in standing up to the establishment interests, as home secretary, one of the toughest jobs in government. She really stood up to the police federation over corruption in the police force, that kind of thing. She's shown she's willing to fight a case for the underdog.
VAUSE: Completely opposite personality to Teresa May and Boris Johnson.
Robin, thank you so much.
Anybody that's been interested in the
(CROSSTALK)
VAUSE: -- and the noise, they're just taking down one of the --
(CROSSTALK)
VAUSE: -- building achievements of Jeremy Corbyn next door.
OK, thanks, Robin.
Amara, back to you.
WALKER: Thanks so much, John.
Egyptian authorities say a flight data recorder retrieved shows signs of heat and smoke. The airbus crashed into the Mediterranean on May 19th. 66 people were on board. There's no word on what caused the plane to dive and crime. This development could help investigators find out.
Free trade, security and climate change, those were the big topics of discussion during a summit of North American leaders in the Canadian capitol of Ottawa. Donald Trump's presidential aspirations also came up and President Barack Obama challenged the idea that Trump is a populist politician.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They don't suddenly become a populist because they say something controversial in order to win votes. That's not the measure of populism. That's nativism, or xenophobia, or worse.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALKER: And Trump is also taking a hit in the latest political surveys. A new FOX News poll finds his Democratic rival is in the lead to become president among registered voters. 44 percent say they would choose Hillary Clinton. 38 percent say they would vote for Trump. The same poll found in May Trump was leading by three percentage points and those numbers flipped earlier this month.
We have much more coverage of the Istanbul terror attack. Up next, how ordinary Turks are stepping up to help people stranded or hurt from Tuesday's bombings.
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[02:31:12] GORANI: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Hala Gorani, in Istanbul, at the Ataturk Airport, right behind me.
The death toll now stands at 42 in that triple bombing suicide attack on the airport. Investigators are now looking at surveillance video, forensic evidence to try to identify the three attackers, although the airport opened so soon after the attack. They also spoke to the cab driver who dropped the three attackers off at the airport. Now, authorities say they believe ISIS is behind the attack, though ISIS typically in Turkey does not claim responsibility even when they are heavily suspected.
The human toll, 42 killed. 120 are still in the hospitals being treated for their wounds. Friends and families are remembering their lost loved ones. Hundreds turned out Wednesday for the funeral of an airport customs officer.
Sophia Jones is a journalist with the "Huffington Post" and "The World Post." She's based in Istanbul and joins me now.
Sophia, let's talk first about what we know about the investigation. It's only been 36 hours. Strong suspicions that ISIS is behind this.
SOPHIA JONES, JOURNALIST, THE HUFFINGTON POST & THE WORLD POST: Right now, all signs point to ISIS. Both U.S. and Turkish officials are saying the extremist military group carried out the attack. This is likely not a Kurdish military group like in past attacks. People are furious right now. It's a somber state here in Turkey right now and people are wondering are things just going to get worse.
GORANI: So they're furious. What would they want the response to because in the initial days of the rebellion against Bashar al Assad, analysts described a situation where Turkey would turn a blind eye to some of these rebels and Islamists and unsavory characters crossing the border into Syria. Is this now an issue because of what they did, their policy of -- the policy of the early years?
JONES: For years, the border was known as a jihadi highway. People could cross and come and go as they pleased. Anyone could cross the border, refugees, extremist militants, U.S.-backed fighters. Now what we're seeing is there are these attacks where ISIS is sort of rebelling because they're furious, they can't cross the border. There are cells across the city in Istanbul where ISIS fighters live in homes and there have been raids over the past few months by Turkish officials.
GORANI: And there's only so much you can do if you have sleeper cells waiting for the right moment to strike.
Let's talk about some of the heartwarming stories. It's so often you have individual stories of heroism and random acts of kindness. You reported on some of those. Tell us about they will.
JONES: I spoke with everyday Turks yesterday who came out and offered support to both those wounded and stranded in the airport after their flights were canceled and they had nowhere to go. I talked to one woman who said humanity wasn't lost. She's seen 400 people line up to donate blood. People blood donation centers say they've never seen numbers like this. People really coming out to show their support and to show they care.
GORANI: And there are hotels, quickly, that allowed people to stay for free. And given how badly tourism has been hit so hard this year, the fact that they would take another financial hit just to be kind is something that -- it was widely shared, as well. I know you spoke with those hotel owners.
JONES: I spoke with one hotel owner and he said hotels on his block had been shutting down because they hadn't found enough people to fill them. But he came forward and he offered 16 people places to sleep that night completely free to show he cared.
[02:35:05] GORANI: Sophia Jones, thank you very much. We appreciate your time and your reporting.
As you heard there, in the midst of tragedy, kindness, human kindness and heroism always finds a way to shine through.
We'll have a lot more from Istanbul after a quick break. And we'll join our colleagues for more Brexit coverage as well.
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VAUSE: Welcome back to London, everybody. European markets are about 20 minutes away from opening. Asian markets are ending the trade day mostly up as fears of the Brexit appears to ease. Here is the latest numbers. Hong Kong, up by almost 1.5 percent. Shanghai, negative territory, but that isn't really relevant. The S&P ASX 200 up by 1.34 percent.
Let's bring in Alex White now, the regional director for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Alex, thanks for being with us.
(CROSSTALK)
VAUSE: We're looking at the economic fallout from the Brexit vote. We've got this rally on the stock market, but that doesn't actually mean that there's no bad economic news to come, does it?
(CROSSTALK)
ALEX WHITE, REGIONAL DIRECTOR, EUROPE, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT: Yeah. I mean, unfortunately not. You can't base your economic projection on a couple days trading on the stock market. It was unsurprising that we got a little bit of a bounce back. Our call is that we got a recession next year. It really starts to be felt in had 2017.
VAUSE: OK. The European leaders have made it pretty clear that the U.K. cannot have a deal with the E.U. unless it's willing to continue to pay into the European Union.
This is what the French president, Francois Hollande had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
[02:40:00] FRANCOIS HOLLANDE, FRENCH PRESIDENT: If the United Kingdom wanted in the framework of a negotiation at the end of it to have assess to the internal market, then the United Kingdom would have to accept all its roles with all its obligations, especially one, which is to financially contribute to the functioning of this internal market and to its organization rules.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Can you put a number on what it would cost the U.K. economy if they decided that no deal is better than any deal, as Nigel Farage says is better than the existing deal. If they just walked away, what would that cost this economy?
WHITE: We haven't actually modeled what it would be if they simply walk away. We think that's complete unrealistic, complete unfeasible. It's all the U.K.'s main trading partners. That's completely fantasyland. We have modeled a 1 percent contraction in GDP next year on the basis of doing a deal that's pretty good for the U.K. and actually working towards the deal that's reasonably constructive.
VAUSE: So that's the question, what will this deal end up looking like? The options are, you end up with a near end, as you say, or far out, as Nigel Farage of UKIP?
WHITE: Well, our goal is we'll send up with a near end, something that's not a million miles away from what Switzerland have, what Norway has got. What we call an EEA minor. That will be very, very difficult for the U.K. leaders and the new U.K. prime minister to sell at home. That's what we're going to get.
VAUSE: That's not exactly what 17 million people voted for.
WHITE: Yeah.
WALKER: They weren't voting for a modified kind of tweaking the deal a little bit. So how will whoever is the next prime minister, how will they sell to that this electorate? WHITE: Well, the next prime minister is going to have a tough job.
They're going to have to go to Europe and eat an awful lot of humble pie. They'll have to go to the electorate and particularly the Leave voters and eat an even larger amount of humble pie and basically say to them, look, this prospective that we sold you, can end free movement and not have any economic impact. That's not a real option.
VAUSE: So at the end of the day, by the time all is said and done, they'll trigger Article 50 in the next 12 months or so, do you think? The end result will be not much different to where they are right now.
WHITE: Yeah. Basically, our call is we get seven years of major dislocation, major economic pain, political dislocation, and we do a deal that takes us, at the end of the day, to not a million miles away from the status quo.
VAUSE: Very quickly, one of the advantages of the U.K. with, political stability, you know was going to happen, obviously, that's no longer the case.
WHITE: Absolutely. The U.K. benefits from a political stability premium. Investors feel they can trust us. They know what the legal framework is. They know what the regulatory framework is. They don't expect to get surprises. The U.K. has benefited from that for 40 years. That is gone. That's not coming back.
VAUSE: OK. Alex, thanks for being with us.
WHITE: Thank you very much.
VAUSE: Appreciate it.
Well, smoke salmon, shortbread and fine single malt whiskey, just some of Scotland's most valuable exports, but many Scots now worried the Brexit will hurt their business.
David McKenzie now from Edinburgh with more.
Hey, David.
DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, John. Yes, you know, more than 730 million pounds a year of food and drink exports from here in Scotland. Now some of the growing family businesses out there across Scotland are worried that their main market and their growing market is going to be shutdown.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MCKENZIE (voice-over): Hand-rolled oatmeal bannocks, they've them here at Fisher and Donaldson Bakery for nearly a hundred years.
(on camera): You don't get more Scottish than this.
SANDY MILN, OWNER, FISHER AND DONALDSON BAKERY: You put -- you don't get any more Scottish than that, absolutely as traditional as they come and very handcrafted. MCKENZIE (voice-over): Sandy Miln has grown this family bakery into a
thriving business that employs more than a hundred people.
(on camera): Would a Brexit affect your business?
MILN: I just don't know. I don't know. I'm not sure that they -- I'm not sure the electorate got all the answers before they made the decision.
MCKENZIE: But uncertainty is a bad thing.
MILN: Uncertainty absolutely is a bad thing.
MCKENZIE (voice-over): The bakery holds a hard-won Royal seal of approval. So when the queen or royalty is in Scotland and wants oat cakes, apple pie, shortbread, they call on Miln. But his locality is being tested.
(on camera): So would you rather be part of Europe or supply the royal family?
MILN: I would be happier to be part of a European family. Although, the queen is right up there.
(LAUGHTER)
MCKENZIE (voice-over): There is a very real possibility that Scotland, along with the rest of the U.K., could lose tariff-free access to the continent with Brexit.
(on camera): Around 20 percent of their product is taken from the bakery here and sent by distributors throughout the world. And one of the key markets, of course, is Europe.
[02:45:04] (voice-over): The access has helped the community of Fife and helped make some premium Scottish brands household names around the world.
(on camera): Can I have a bite?
MILN: You can, indeed.
MCKENZIE: It's excellent.
(voice-over): But bakers like Miln don't want the door shut to their biggest future market.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCKENZIE: Well, certainly Nicola Sturgeon, the powerful first minister of Scotland, John, is pushing the E.U. to allow them to stay in the European Union, given that most Scots voted to stay. But it seems like powerful members of the E.U., like Spain, like France, saying they're going to have to get out. I guess that's just the way the cookie crumbles. That's what they're saying.
VAUSE: Oh, dear. Dave McKenzie, looking good in that hairnet, too.
David, thank you.
We'll take a short break here on CNN. Back in a moment.
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(WEATHER REPORT)
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[02:49:56] WALKER: Welcome back, everybody. I'm Amara Walker, in Los Angeles. Here's the latest on our top stories.
(HEADLINES)
Turkey's president is calling for a unified global fight against terrorism.
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RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translation): There is no humanitarian explanation for this. There is no Islamic explanation or aspect to this. Not at all. These people are not Muslim. They are going to be the occupants of hell. They have secured their places in hell. Causing the death of one single person is equal to causing the death of all of humanity. This is what our religion says. How can one do such things?
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WALKER: Turkish authorities say 37 of the victims have been identified so far. At least 13 were foreign nationals, according to Turkish and Saudi officials. So far, 23 of the victims have been identified as Turkish, five from Saudi Arabia and two from Iraq. Other victims are known to be from China, Iran, Jordan, Tunisia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
ISIS fighters are on the run right now in Iraq and have just suffered some heavy losses. Iraq's defense ministry says dozens were killed when American airstrikes hit a convoy of more than 500 vehicles near Fallujah. A U.S. source says the strike required the precision of American aircraft because a lot of the civilians -- there were a lot of civilians in the area. Iraqi officials say the operation started Monday night and it is still ongoing.
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I am joined now by U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman. He is a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and former chairman of the Subcommittee on Terrorism.
Great to have you here, Congressman.
REP BRAD SHERMAN, (D), CALIFORNIA: Good to be with you.
WALKER: Thank you so much for taking the time.
I want to first talk about the anti-ISIS policy here in the United States. And I know that you have been calling for a more robust anti- ISIS policy. So what are you saying needs to change?
SHERMAN: Well, in our bombing campaign, we're getting more robust. This convoy we hit today, three or four months ago, we wouldn't have hit it. And the thinking was even if you're carrying ISIS supplies, you're carrying ISIS oil for export, you might be a civilian driver. Well, you know, during World War II, we hit every train in occupied France that we could hit.
WALKER: So why would this not have happened three or four months ago?
SHERMAN: Because we had a policy of zero civilian casualties, and even the people working for ISIS, if they were truck drivers, or maybe they were civilians. It's hard to distinguish what is and what is not a civilian among --
(CROSSTALK)
WALKER: So that has changed?
SHERMAN: That has obviously changed.
WALKER: So what is the policy?
SHERMAN: There is no clear policy. But it appears to be you hit the strategic target, just as we did in World War II. And you try to avoid civilian casualties. This isn't a Donald Trump thing where you say you deliberately go after those civilians who are related to ISIS fighters. You try to avoid it but if you see a strategic target, you hit the strategic target.
WALKER: Defeating ISIS is really going to have to be a multi-pronged approach, right? You can't just defeat them in the field. You also mentioned online propaganda. When ISIS has losses on the battlefield, the reality is that we see them export their terror outside their territories. So what can be with done to defeat ISIS on those fronts we just talked about, not just the battlefield?
SHERMAN: First, we have to take down their web pages, their Twitter accounts, et cetera. Gradually, we've been able to do that. Twitter is now cooperating far more than they did a year ago. So they're going to one-on-one discussions rather than a broadcasting approach. And then what we need to do is we have to have a message that reflects an understanding of Islam. You can't argue Islam if you don't know Islam. And there's no one at the State Department -- we've got tens of millions of dollars being spent on getting our message out, but our message is being written by people who don't know Islam. We haven't hired a single person because they're memorialized the Koran.
WALKER: Great to have this conversation with you. Congressman Brad Sherman, thank you for your time.
SHERMAN: Thank you. (END VIDEOTAPE)
WALKER: There's a new leader in charge in the Philippines. Rodrigo Duterte was sworn in a short time ago as president. He won election in May by 16 million votes. He's known for being the punisher of crime. He has vowed to dump bodies of dead criminals in Manila Bay. He also accused Catholic bishops of doing nothing but trying to get money for themselves.
[02:55:11] Now to what may be the most awkward handshake ever. It happened when the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried a tricky double shake with both U.S. President Barack Obama and the Mexican president. After a painful couple of seconds, they got it all worked out and even seemed a bit amused by it. The so-called three amigos were in Ottawa, Canada, for the North American Leaders Summit.
That does it for this hour. I'm Amara Walker.
Our special coverage of the aftermath of the terror attack in Istanbul continues with Hala Gorani after a short break.
Stay with CNN.
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[03:00:00] ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church, at CNN world headquarters, covering the fight against ISIS, the EgyptAir investigation and U.S. politics.
