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Preview of Presidential Debate. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired September 26, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:00:16] ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: And good afternoon. I'm Erin Burnett. This is our special CNN coverage live from Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, this afternoon, the site of what may become what is very likely to become the most watched political event ever. It is the first presidential debate. If you have been living under a rock, experts predict as many as 100 million will tune in to see for the first time Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump standing side by side, face-to-face, just as multiple polls are now coming in - and this is just over the past couple of days, we got another one moments ago - showing it essentially tied in the race for who will win the White House. Forty-three days away from the actual in-person voting. And now less than seven hours from this crucial debate.

I want to begin our coverage this afternoon as we count you down with Sara Murray, who was inside the debate hall already.

And, Sara, how exactly is this going to work? I mean just the logistics of it. You know, who goes first? How much candidate - how much time do they get to talk?

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, of course, this is going to be different from what we saw in the primaries. They are going to be on stage together in this debate hall. Hillary Clinton won the coin toss, so she goes first. After that, she'll get a question. Each candidate will have two minutes to answer the question.

Now, the way it's formatted is it's going to be six different segments. Each of them will be 15 minutes long. The candidates will go back and forth. They'll answer questions. But unlike the primary debates, the whole thing is 90 minutes long. There will be no commercials. There will be no breaks. So that means that these candidates are not going to have an opportunity to go and speak to their aides in the midst of this debate.

And, remember, Erin, this is going to be the first time that Donald Trump is in a one-on-one debate. Of course, it's going to be the first time he's in a one-on-one debate against a female opponent as well. So it will be very interesting to see how the dynamic on this debate stage changes compared to what we saw in the primaries.

BURNETT: All right, Sara, thank you very much.

And those are some of the basics of how this will work. I mean when you think about that, 90 minutes, no time to talk to anyone, no time to use the restroom, nothing, no commercial at all. Just imagine that being on stage. And, of course, it's less than seven hours until this begins.

You know, when we've heard from the Clinton and Trump campaigns this afternoon, everybody is really in spin mode. It's a little bit crazy, to be honest with you. Each of them coming out with their side of things in the last-minute preparation for tonight.

Phil Mattingly knows a lot more about this.

And, Phil, obviously, the spin from both sides is ferocious. That may be the appropriate word. But in terms of how they're preparing today, very different modes of preparation.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, no question about it. And that's really been the case over the last couple of days. Erin, you note, there is a public face to this that both campaigns are trying to put out right now. But behind the scenes, both candidates are admittedly, according to advisers, cramming in these last moments. Now, over the course of the weekend, Hillary Clinton had a very different approach to this. She is somebody who likes to over prepare. She wants to study as much as possible. That's exactly what she was doing. Multiple sessions in a hotel a couple of miles away from her Chappaqua home in a conference room with top advisers, mock debates, debates that were occurring around the same time in the evening as this debate will be today, almost to mimic that in some cases.

Donald Trump taking a very different tact. Now, his advisers have been rather tight-lipped about what specifically they were doing, but here's what we know. He was studying videotape for a time, looking at Hillary Clinton's past debate performances, trying to identify weaknesses. But most of all, he's been lobbing questions back and forth with top advisors, talking to Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie. At Trump Tower today were people like Steve Bannon, his campaign chairman, Woody Johnson, a top fundraiser. Both campaigns advisers are saying that the candidates are still pressing to get some of that last-minute cramming in, Erin. But, no question about it, very different ways of going about this, but the end game is the same, 90 minutes, as you noted, no breaks. A very different scenario, especially for Donald Trump, than he faced in the primary. One that I think advisers on both sides acknowledge, both candidates have to be very prepared to face.

BURNETT: And, Phil, in terms of Hillary Clinton's preparation, we know the man who was playing Donald Trump, long-time associate, someone she's very close with, Philippe Reines (ph), and someone who's known for putting expletives in e-mails, unafraid to say what he thinks. Someone think a brilliant choice to play Donald Trump. And he did something unexpected, you've learned.

MATTINGLY: Yes, that's exactly right. Most people think he's a very brilliant choice to play Donald Trump based on his past. But what he did is he changed it up. He became nice Donald Trump according to one adviser. He kind of - he had been the boisterous kind of attacking Donald Trump in mock debates leading up to a certain point, and then all of a sudden he flipped it, surprising Hillary Clinton, not letting her know he was going to do it. And that really reflects what the Clinton campaign is predicting may happen - what they think might happen tonight. We were going to see the lower key, more subdued, more polite Donald Trump. And Donald Trump trying to convey to the American people that he is, in fact, ready to take the Oval Office. That he can, in fact, control some of his worst impulses, if you will.

[14:05:03] So Philippe Reines trying that on Hillary Clinton, surprising Hillary Clinton with that. That becoming the focal point of their mock debates going back and forth. And, really, as I noted, it reflects that the Clinton campaign is expecting that is the Donald Trump we will see tonight. If that's actually going to be the case, well, we're going to find out in about seven hours.

BURNETT: All right, Phil Mattingly, thank you very much.

Of course going to be with us as they get more information.

Let's talk right now with our panel. Molly Ball, political writer for "The Atlantic," David Cantanese, senior politics writer for "US News & World Report," our political commentator, Errol Louis, who is also political anchor for New York One, and political commentator Mary Katherine Ham, who is senior writer at "The Federalist."

Thanks to all of you.

Let me just start with you, Errol, you're next to me.

Polite Trump.

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Is that possible? I think it is. That they - but polite is, I think, is not even the right word. I think it's more like presidential, which is far more than simply being polite and not acting uncouth. It's really more trying to shatter the impression that's been created by - by the Hillary Clinton team.

I think back to 1980 and that crucial, single debate that apparently moved the polls something like 6 points in Ronald Reagan's favor and really what it was based on, as I recall as a teenager, hearing that he was some crazy cowboy, that he was completely unfit to be president. I literally expected him to come on in a cowboy hat with six-shooters, you know, firing into the air and he wasn't any of those things. He was just kind of, you know, pretty presidential. And it made you think. It didn't mean that I voted for him, but it certainly shattered the impression and so I wasn't at all surprised when a lot of sentiment shifted in favor of him.

If Donald Trump can shatter this unfitness argument that the Hillary Clinton team has been making repeatedly, then he doesn't necessarily win but I think that's his main task tonight.

BURNETT: Yes. So, Mary Katherine, one of the new polls - I'm just looking down here, we just got today from Monmouth, right?

MARY KATHARINE HAM, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Right.

BURNETT: It shows that the race is just a - it narrowed from seven points to four points in just a month, OK. So that's - and that all went in Trump going up.

HAM: Right.

BURNETT: Clinton stayed where she was, she did not go down, but Trump went up. On this issue of fitness, though, you still see the huge differential there.

HAM: Right.

BURNETT: Vast majority of people think she has the temperament and he does not. What does he have to do tonight to change that? Is it what Errol said, if he just comes out and doesn't level insults or anything ridiculous, it's OK?

HAM: Well, I think people are torn because they do see Donald Trump's behavior and have that question. And she's, of course, making that argument. The problem for her is that she's been spending a lot of money making that argument on national TV and it hasn't landed. We shall see if it lands tonight.

But because those expectations are rather low for him, very low I would say, meeting the bar of acceptability for some of these people who genuinely sort of want a change election and they're being offered a status quo who's acting like she's a change and this guy who's a lot of change, if he assures them that he is like - can handle this, many people might take a second look.

BURNETT: David, how many people do you think are truly perusable? You know (INAUDIBLE) now down to what, 10 percent. I mean if you're watching the media, and you're participating in this election, it would seems you've made up your mind. But there are still a decent number of people, certainly enough to swing the election, who have not.

DAVID CATANESE, SENIOR POLITICS WRITER, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": There are some polls that say 20 percent. I think that's a little high for the undecided vote.

BURNETT: Yes.

CATANESE: I think some people are trying to figure out if they're going to vote at all or stay home. But I think this entire debate is about Donald Trump. I think we know what we're going to get from Hillary Clinton. She's going to be substantive. She's going to point out Trump's inconsistencies. She's going to be very tough on his past controversial statements. I think the first 30 minutes we're going to know the tempo of this. And I think the question is, Clinton will eventually lay the bait for Trump and try to wear him down and get him to take that bait to make a costly mistake. Remember, Trump has been in debates before, but he's had 18 people to sort of fade in the background with. Now he's got to really go 45 minutes, if you divide it in half, a 90 minute debate, 45 minute of substance with Hillary Clinton and not take that bait. I think you'll see him restrained at first, but the question is, can he make it the whole way and be substantive and not make a mistake?

BURNETT: What's your - what's your feeling on that, Molly?

MOLLY BALL, POLITICAL WRITER, "THE ATLANTIC": Yes, I'm actually going to disagree slightly with Dave on two points here. I think, first of all, there's an extraordinary number of undecided high-information voters in this election.

BURNETT: Wow. You do?

BALL: Yes.

BURNETT: OK.

BALL: Just because even people who have been watching this very closely may not like either of the candidates. And I've seen in focus groups where there are a lot of high-information voters who are still undecided because they feel pushed - not pulled in both directions, but pushed away in both directions from -

BURNETT: If (INAUDIBLE) information (ph), you people who are consuming and reading and they're watching it -

BALL: People who are watching a lot. Yes, and I think what Trump has benefitted from in these polls that are showing him in polling even or ahead is Republicans coming home. So the second point where I'll disagree with Dave a little bit is, I think there is also an acceptability bar for Hillary Clinton. She's been doing well early on because there were a lot of Republicans who were not ready to vote for Donald Trump. If those people come home to Trump, it makes it much tougher for Hillary. But if she can convince them that she's an acceptable alternative, despite all of her flaws and despite the partisanship hurdle, then - then she will have really cleared a bar.

BURNETT: And so as she tries to wear him down - I want to talk about on each sides the things they don't want to talk about. He does not like to be challenged about how much money he has.

[14:10:02] CATANESE: Yes.

BURNETT: It is one of the things that is very important to his definition to his self, to his psychology, to his self-worth. How is she going to - she's going to try to go there

CATANESE: I think -

BURNETT: Just to get it - to needle him.

CATANESE: I think you will see her talk - mention that he hasn't released his tax - taxes, to say, well, maybe you're not worth that much money. I mean Trump is so protective of his brand that I think that you - if you go at his businesses, if you go at the Trump Foundation, if you go at Trump University and go - go under, you know, his casinos in Atlantic City that went bankrupt, that is going to - that could get under his skin. I don't think it will be an issue difference. I think that he'll parry (ph) that, you know, pretty well.

BURNETT: It's how he handles it. CATANESE: I think that - that it's trying to get under his skin on

things that are the most important to him. And the most important thing to him is his brand.

BURNETT: And, for her, she doesn't want to talk about the Clinton Foundation. She knows she's going to have to. And the e-mails. And yet what we understand from our reporting is that they're still working with her on her answers to this. This is - this is someone who's been preparing, I don't know how many and days and she still doesn't have the answer.

LOUIS: Well, no, this - and, of course, the real thing is not to answer, right, but to sorted of say what she usually does when she's successful is to pivot and say, everything that you want to know about this, tens of thousands of e-mails, hundreds of hours of testimony, it's all in the public record, knock yourself out. What I want to talk about is what concerns America and these are -

BURNETT: Do you really think that's what's going to work because that's what - that's what people - that's what she's been saying and people say is not enough?

LOUIS: It's - it's - it is the absolute Clinton brand. Her husband was upside down, meaning more unfavorable than favorable on the day he was re-elected in 1996. This is the Clinton style is to say, you may not think I'm trustworthy, you may not think I'm honest, you my not think my personality comports with what you think a president should act like, but I care about you and I've got some programs that are going to really help you improve your life. That's the argument that she makes. That is the Clinton argument.

HAM: Well, I don't think we should discount the idea that he could get in - under her skin. When she is asked about the e-mails, you can see sort of fairly contained anger at times when she's addressing these questions. Notably at the commander in chief forum when she was asked a question by a Navy vet who said, look, if I were dealing with this, I'd be in trouble, if I had done the things you did. And even in addressing him, who she has no beef with, like Donald Trump, there was a tone of not a lot of forgiveness there, not a lot of deft tone there.

And so I think there's a real possibility that he gets under her skin as well just asking these questions. The question for me is, does he have all the facts of the e-mail scandal that he can bring to mind and throw at her instead of defaulting to personal attacks, which would be the better thing to do. I'm just not sure he does.

BURNETT: Personal attacks tonight? Does it happen? I mean it happened in all of the primary debates.

LOUIS: Well, you know, what's interesting about that, Erin, is what people interpret as a personal attack. I mean, you know, David was right, I mean when you - when you start talking about Trump's money, it's not so much his net worth and the fact that he hasn't disclosed his charitable contributions or let us see his taxes, it's also the way that he made the money. To hear Donald Trump talk about it, he either, you know, built value out of nothing, he put these towers up in the sky, or he outwitted some sharp operators from, you know, from the Middle East or from China.

When you go to Trump University and say, you know - you know what, you made your money by taking money from regular people, from stiffing small contractors, from dealing with people in a casino who got fired summarily, that's when he really gets his back up. So, I mean, I think when he starts to see - you know, that means - it's the other side of putting your name on everything. Anything that that business does, if your name is on it, he starts to interpret as a personal attack. And that's where it starts to get nasty.

BURNETT: All right. All right, well, we're all with us as we're counting you down.

And my next guest has gone through the tapes. See what agitates each candidate. What truly sets them off and how the other one can take advantage.

Plus, you can't have a debate without the zingers, those one-liners that sometimes can make a win or a loss. We'll talk about some of the best ones that everyone may be talking about tomorrow.

This is our special live coverage right here from Hofstra University.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:17:52] BURNETT: And welcome back. We're here at Hofstra University where in just a few hours Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be facing off for the first time with as many as 100 million people watching and the polls in a virtual dead heat. The pressure on the candidates to perform is frankly unparalleled in this or any race.

I want to bring in James Fallows, who's the national correspondent with "The Atlantic," who wrote a great piece that if you haven't had a chance to read, you should. It's - it's about what to look for tonight. But you've talked about sort of the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate. You know, James, you say one of the most accurate ways to predict reaction to a debate is to watch it with the sound turned off, which is a really interesting thing, right, because then you're for look at body language completely, right, their facial expressions? What should we be looking for?

JAMES FALLOWS, NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, "THE ATLANTIC": Yes. So this is not a good way to be a citizen, because as a citizen you should be hearing what they're saying. But if you're just judging it as a drama coach or trying to predict what people are going to say that night or the next day, it's mainly carriage that seems to make a difference. Are people taken aback? Do they seem comfortable? Usually it's the presidential candidate who seems, you know, more at peace with himself or herself and just, you know, happier to be there who, in the long run, is seen as doing better.

BURNETT: So we saw their strengths and weaknesses in the primaries. And in Hillary Clinton's case against Bernie Sanders, right, where she ended up having one-on-ones. You call it her mastery of the cool dismissal, which can work and then sometimes really not work in your favor. Here's an example of what you're talking about when she was talk - being asked about something she doesn't like to be asked about, her e-mails.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'm going to give the same answer I've been giving for many months. It wasn't the best choice. I made a mistake. It was not prohibited. It was not in any way disallowed. And as I've said, and as now has come out, my predecessors did the same thing. And many other people in the government. But here's the cut to the chase facts. I did not send or receive any e- mails marked classified at the time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: So, James, obviously some of these things have been proven to be untrue, but the point is, is that she's very controlled and very dispassionate. How does that style play?

[14:20:08] FALLOWS: So, I think that the - the ideal that the Clinton team has in mind as they prepare for this debate is actually the Benghazi Commission hearing, where Representative Trey Gowdy and one of his Republican colleagues were really trying to get at her in somewhat aggressive way and she was seeming somewhat amused, trying always to say, let's keep this in perspective, here are the facts, let's move on. So I would think if she had to give an answer, as long as the one we just heard about the e-mails, she would feel that was sort of a setback in these debates because she wants to give a sentence or two and then say, here's the main point.

BURNETT: Right. And, of course, we'll see how that goes because now you're looking at 90 minutes, 15 minutes a topic.

FALLOWS: Right.

BURNETT: It seems unlikely that it's going to be 90 seconds of time on a particular issue.

You talk about Donald Trump. And Trump out on the stage, it's a - sort of it's about dominating and humiliating is how you put it. And here is a look at some of the moments from his debates that might strike both of those tones.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: First of all, this guy's a choke artist and this guy's a liar.

I'm relaxed. You're a basket case.

This little guy has lied so much about my record.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Here we go.

TRUMP: Don't worry about it, little Marco. SEN. TED CRUZ (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Matter of principle,

and I'll - and I'll tell you -

TRUMP: You are the single biggest liar.

We don't need a weak person being president of the United States, OK, because that's what we get if it were Jeb.

You're really getting beaten badly. I know you're embarrassed. I know you're embarrassed, but keep fighting. Keep swinging, man. Swing for the fences.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: So, does this work in a one-on-one debate with Hillary Clinton?

FALLOWS: Well, it brings it all back. And one reason we're all going to be watching tonight is that nobody has any idea what's going to happen tonight, especially what sort of Donald Trump will be there.

BURNETT: Yes, exactly.

FALLOWS: But logic and a record would seem to suggest that this approach is very effective when it's a large crowd of people, all men except for Carly Fiorina and he can do this kind of dominance ritual. I quoted Jane Goodall, the chimpanzee expert in my piece, about how he was like a dominate chimp. He - Donald Trump has not historically been that assertive against other women who are right there in front of him. He was - sort of backed off with Carly Fiorina, with that pastor in Flint, Michigan, last week. So God knows what we'll see.

BURNETT: Yes.

FALLOWS: But I guess I would be surprised if there's something that dominant.

BURNETT: All right. James Fallows, thank you very much.

And coming up, the art of the debate zinger.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: You're really getting beaten badly. I know you're embarrassed. I know you're embarrassed, but keep fighting. Keep swinging, man. Swing for the fences.

JEB BUSH (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You're never going to be president of the United States by insulting your way to the presidency.

TRUMP: You're real tough, Jeb. Yes, well, let's see, I'm at 42 and you're at three, so so far I'm doing better.

BUSH: It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: We're going to take a look at some of the more memorable moments from previous debates. And what kinds of moussing (ph) or sybicomes (ph) it brings to the table tonight. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:27:29] BURNETT: And welcome back to CNN. I'm Erin Burnett. You're watching our special coverage of tonight's presidential debate.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are just hours away from their first showdown here at Hofstra University. And you can expect a lot of fireworks in the form of their own styles, quirks and whether they have their one-liners. Both of them have shown they don't shy away from launching a one-liner or a zinger at their rivals. Here they are.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: First of all, this guy's a choke artist and this guy's a liar.

I'm relaxed. You're the basket case.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Senator Sanders did call me unqualified. I've been called a lot of things in my life. That was a first.

TRUMP: This little guy has lied so much about my record.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Here we go.

TRUMP: Don't worry about it, little Marco.

CLINTON: It's always important. It may be inconvenient, but it's always important to get the facts straight.

TRUMP: You're really getting beaten badly. I know you're embarrassed. I know you're embarrassed, but keep fighting. Keep swing, man. Swing for the fences.

CLINTON: The kind of criticism that we've heard from Senator Sanders about our president I expect from Republicans. I do expect from someone running for the Democratic nomination to succeed President Obama.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That is -

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: All right, while zingers are nice, but hopefully a lot of people will be watching for something even more substantive this evening, let's just say.

All right, there's a way, obviously, to do both, and that's what makes a debate a debate. I want to bring in my panel. Ana Marie Cox is senior political

correspondent for MTV News, Matt Schlapp is former George W. Bush political director, chairman of the American Conservative Union, John Phillips is our political commentator and a Donald Trump supporter, and David Brock is founder of the pro-Clinton super PAC Correct the Record.

So, one thing that we do know, David, is that Hillary Clinton's going to get the first question. This was settled before, right? Sort of the coin toss type of a thing.

DAVID BROCK, FOUNDER, PRO-CLINTON SUPER PAC CORRECT THE RECORD: Right.

BURNETT: We know that. What does that mean in terms of setting the tone?

BROCK: Well, I think it presents an opportunity for her to show herself a strong, serious, stable and substantive. And I think that will make a nice contradiction from what we'll see from Donald Trump. I think it's also important to get the last word in. We don't know who's going to do that. And then I think the other point is that she can - she can wait to pivot her attacks. And we're all going to very anxious to see what those are.

BURNETT: John, what do you say, is it - is it good for Donald Trump or bad for him that he doesn't have the first question?

JOHN PHILLIPS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think it will set the tone and I think he'll respond to whatever it is that she does. And I think that's probably a good idea for him because a much as I'd love to see that Lisa Lampanelli act, it's probably a good idea for him to resist those impulses and try to look like the guy that was in Mexico, try to look like the guy that's been campaigning the last few weeks, on the teleprompter, on message. He needs to tailor his message today to Republican women that voted for Romney that aren't yet sold on him. If he can show those voters that he is temperamentally fit to be president, he's going to have a very good night.

[14:30:13] BURNETT: And temperament may matter --