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Category Four Storm Edges Closer to Haiti; Clinton Leads in New CNN/ORC Poll; U.S. Suspends Talks with Russia over Syria Crisis. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired October 04, 2016 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:00:10] JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: This is CNN NEWSROOM live from Los Angeles. Ahead this hour --

ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: Hurricane Matthew batters the Caribbean with Haiti bracing for what could be a catastrophic strike.

VAUSE: The first national poll after the Presidential debate gives Hillary Clinton the lead in the race for the White House and leaked tax returns give her a new line of attack against Donald Trump.

SESAY: And after being robbed at gunpoint, Kim Kardashian may think twice about showing off her jewelry.

VAUSE: Hello, everybody. Great to have you with us. We'd like to welcome our viewers all around the world. I'm John Vause.

SESAY: And I'm Isha Sesay. NEWSROOM L.A. starts right now.

VAUSE: Islands in the Caribbean are bracing for one of the strongest storms to hit the region in years. Hurricane Matthew is a Category 4 storm with winds around 230 kilometers per hour. Damaging winds and heavy rain are causing problems in Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

SESAY: There are big concerns for Haiti. The country's infrastructure still hasn't recovered from the deadly earthquake in 2010.

VAUSE: Well, to Haiti now and John Hasse, the national director for the international charity World Vision. He joins us on the line from the capital of Port-Au-Prince. John -- what are conditions there like right now?

JOHN HASSE, WORLD VISION NATIONAL DIRECTOR (via telephone): Well, in Port-Au-Prince right now we are starting to see the wind and the rain really pick up overnight. I mean during the day we had a lot of rain but steady rain and now it's starting to get much heavier now.

VAUSE: The president of Haiti has been calling for residents not to try and ride out this storm, to head to one of the shelters -- about a thousand have been opened. Are people following that advice? HASSE: You know, it's a little bit spotty. Many people are but many

people haven't prepared and don't really know where the shelters are yet. The communications of where those shelters were came out late. So that's one of our major concerns is just helping people get to those shelters and making sure if they don't that they have the supplies that they need to weather it out.

VAUSE: There are some reports that people were too worried to leave their homes because of concerns they may be robbed while they weren't there.

HASSE: Right. Yes. That is also a big concern. Security during these -- and safety during these types of situations is very difficult and especially here in the city in Port-Au-Prince. Many people just don't trust their neighbors, don't trust others. That becomes a real challenge.

But what we're trying to do is just help them understand that their lives are at risk. And so World Vision staff are out in the community helping people try and get into those shelters as much as they can whether they are at churches or schools or other places.

VAUSE: And John -- as you look ahead to the next couple of hours, what is your biggest concern? Would it be the high winds or the heavy rain and the flooding which follows?

HASSE: Yes, I think really both. But I mean, I think we're overall really more focused on the flooding that's going to be happening. And also just the winds are really going to be destructive to a lot of the very rickety buildings that are still standing. They aren't built to international standards or anything.

And with these high winds they're going to just destroy many, many. And with the denuded -- with the deforested landscape there is going to be huge amounts of flooding and landslides. And that is a real concern for World Vision.

VAUSE: Ok. John -- thank you for giving us that update. John Hasse there with World Vision giving us the very latest from Port-Au-Prince. Of course, Haiti is right in the line of fire there when it comes to Hurricane Matthew.

SESAY: Let's get the latest on the storm's track. Meteorologist Pedram Javaheri joins us from the International Weather Center with more on that. And Pedram -- this has been a slow-moving storm which makes it especially dangerous. How is it looking right now?

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes. You know, it's on approach over the next several hours -- Isha. Landfall, I think some time around daybreak is the most likelihood of scenario across this region of western Haiti and certainly getting the outer bands, as you heard in the previous interview with the heavy rainfall that is beginning to move in across this region.

I want to show the lay of the land across the particular area as we go in for a closer look because people are often surprised to learn that about 75 percent of the island of Haiti is on elevated terrain -- more than 200 meters high. You get off into the interior mountains we're talking nearly 3,000 meters high across this region.

Some of the communities here would be devastated with the amount of rainfall we are forecasting which could be upwards of a meter in the coming couple of days. The storm surge, two to three meters or up forward of 11 feet right here where the southern facing beaches would be, and these communities would be devastated as well as the storm system roars ashore.

[00:05:01] I want to show you what we have as far as the storm itself and show you the intensity of this particular storm because it's still sitting at 230 kilometers per hour. And that is a strong category four feature with wind gusts upwards of 280 kilometers per hour.

So now we're approaching, of course, getting into destructive terrain and territory of this storm system. And you take a look at when it is forecast to make landfall, we think again around daybreak for western Haiti, eastern Cuba will make landfall some time into the afternoon hours on Tuesday. And then beyond that we work our way into the Caribbean and the storm system really slows down even further more as it approaches the island of the Bahamas some time in the middle of the week and then the eastern United States.

But again, leaving you with something here that's really important and you take a look at the Dominican Republic, John and Isha, and then you look at Haiti, the western side of this. The deforestation is extensive, very little in the way of color green here. And that shows you very little in the way of any sort of soil or as far as anything would be able to absorb the heavy rainfall that's forecast here. So the landslide potential is extremely high on this side of Haiti with the rain that is going to be coming in.

SESAY: We know -- a great amount to be concerned about. We will continue to check in with you. Pedram -- appreciate it.

VAUSE: Yes. (inaudible). Thanks -- Pedram.

To the U.S. presidential race now. Hillary Clinton campaigned in Ohio on Monday where recent polls have shown that she has been trailing Donald Trump.

SESAY: Meanwhile Donald Trump held two rallies in Colorado. A new poll shows Clinton with a double-digit lead in that state.

Nationally, the latest CNN/ORC poll conducted after last Monday's debate gives Clinton a five-point edge over Trump -- 47 percent to 42 percent.

VAUSE: Joining us here in Los Angeles is Matthew Littman. He's a Democratic strategist and a former senior adviser to Barack Obama during his campaign; and in San Francisco CNN political commentator and former Mitt Romney public policy director, Lanhee Chen. Guys -- thank you very much for being with us.

SESAY: Welcome -- gentlemen. MATTHEW LITTMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you.

VAUSE: As we look at this latest poll, the CNN/ORC poll, it seems to be following a pattern that we have been seeing throughout this campaign. Hillary Clinton gets this big lead, Trump closes the gap. This seems to be the fourth cycle that we're into it. So Matt, to you I guess, why can't Hillary Clinton put this away?

LITTMAN: Well, look. 42 percent of the country is either Republican or leans Republican and that's about where Donald Trump is. He usually doesn't go much above that. Hillary vacillates between about 48, 44 -- right now she's on the 48 side. So she is five or six or seven points ahead in most of these polls. But if Hillary -- if five points was the amount that Hillary won by, in this country that's a pretty big margin.

SESAY: And Lanhee, to bring you in here, Donald Trump is in the middle of a bad stretch. There's no doubt about that. It started after that first presidential debate. But he has been in bad stretches before and he's managed to bounce back. Is there anything about this moment that feels different to you?

LANHEE CHEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It does feel a little different for a few reasons. I think first of all, this has been an incredibly bad week and I have to say that the start of this week doesn't look a whole lot better than last week for Donald Trump.

So this is sort of a sustained nature of how bad this campaign has been for him. And then we are going into now two more presidential debates. It seems like what happened in the first debate is emblematic of the way Trump has approached the campaign -- the lack of discipline, the sort of listlessness. And if he has a similar performance going into this next presidential debate it could be very much fatal for his campaign going forward.

VAUSE: Ok. Well, the poll was taken before the weekend story in the "New York Times" that Donald Trump might not have, could not have, you know, paid federal taxes for the past 18 years. While not denying that report it seems to be kind of a point of pride for the Republican nominee on the campaign trail. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I have legally used the tax laws to my benefit and to the benefit of my company, my investors and my employees. I mean honestly, I have brilliantly -- I have brilliantly used those laws.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Lanhee, as an adviser to Mitt Romney, the former Republican nominee -- someone who had his own issues with releasing his tax returns -- what do you make of Donald Trump's response?

CHEN: Well, I think it's pretty much the only place they can go -- to embrace this and to use it as a sign of Donald Trump's business acumen as opposed to something that makes him look out of touch. I think, look, no one disputes the fact that Donald Trump was legally allowed to take advantage of these tax provisions. I think the question is, how does that make people feel?

And if he is campaigning as somebody who is going to be the champion of working-class individuals and those are the voters that he largely needs to be successful in this election I think there's going to be a little bit of a disconnect there.

So we'll see how this turns out. But I think this path is probably the only one they could have walked down particularly if they don't intend ever release their tax returns.

SESAY: Matt, you heard Lanhee says it's about how it makes people feel. Put that in context with the fact that according to a CNN/ORC poll released on Monday, 79 percent of Donald Trump supporters view paying taxes as a civic duty.

[00:10:04] How do you square the circle?

LITTMAN: The problem here for Trump isn't just the taxes -- which I agree with Lanhee -- I don't know what else he could tell you at this point. But it's not just the taxes, right. He's had every opportunity to do the right thing before he ran for president, he hasn't. It's about not paying any taxes but it's also about the Trump Foundation and using it as a piggy bank -- right.

SESAY: But does anyone care about the Trump Foundation?

LITTMAN: Well, I think when you accumulate all of these things as to what kind of guy Trump is -- all the bankruptcies, not paying people, the constant lawsuits right, Trump University -- you put all of this stuff together there seems to be a common pattern which is he will do anything to make a dime for himself and he doesn't care at the expense of who that is.

So then why is Donald Trump only at 42 percent is one way of looking at it and the answer is because that people perceive that he is not on their side. The people who are voting for Donald Trump are the people who could least afford to have a Trump presidency and they're the ones who are supporting him. But he's been fighting against those people for decades.

VAUSE: Ok. Well, Clinton obviously thinks that they are on to something here. This is Secretary Clinton campaigning in Ohio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: While millions of American families, including mine and yours, were working hard, paying our fair share, it seems he was contributing nothing to our nation. Imagine that.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Not fair.

CLINTON: Not fair. Nothing for Pell grants to help kids go to college, nothing for veterans, nothing for our military.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: Is this line of attack by Clinton muted a little bit given the fact that Clinton has used exactly the same tax breaks to try and minimize their tax bill?

LITTMAN: Well Hillary -- they pay taxes.

VAUSE: Yes.

LITTMAN: And Donald Trump really appears not to be paying much in taxes over --

VAUSE: We don't know that. He may not have, but he could have.

LITTMAN: It's up to Donald Trump to tell us that. But the evidence so far is that he may not. I don't think it would come as a huge surprise if he doesn't. I certainly think Hillary has a leg to stand on in this argument.

But, you know, you go to the CNN poll. If you would have taken that poll right after the debate I don't think it would have been five points. Donald Trump keeps sticking his foot in his mouth every day after the debate. He's compounding his own mistakes. It's amateurish and that's why Hillary is getting a bigger and bigger lead.

SESAY: Lanhee -- it's obvious that Hillary Clinton is going to use this tax issue as a talking point in the next presidential debate. She's also probably going to use this line by Donald Trump where he is clearly trying to pivot from looking after himself, making number one a priority, to the general populace. Take a listen to what he has to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The unfairness of the tax laws is unbelievable. It's something that I've been talking about for a long time -- you've heard me talking about it -- despite being a very big beneficiary, I must admit.

I am. I am a big beneficiary.

But you're more important than my being a beneficiary so we're going to straighten it out and make it fair for everybody.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SESAY: So Lanhee -- it's no longer about me. It's all about you. How is that argument going to go over? Hillary Clinton is going to use that one in that next debate.

CHEN: I mean -- again this is about the best he can do. I mean he very much readily acknowledges that he has been a beneficiary of the tax code. He's a flawed messenger. I think the problem that a lot of Americans have in this election is that they are choosing between two very, very flawed options and Hillary Clinton's quickest pathway to the presidency is to completely disqualify Donald Trump and vice versa.

So one would expect this next debate probably to be uglier, to be even more raw than the last debate. So anyone who thought this campaign was going to get more positive has another think coming.

SESAY: Yes. I'm not sure anyone thought it was going to get --

(CROSSTALK)

VAUSE: No one has had any illusion about that. Nice thought.

SESAY: Lanhee Chen, Matthew Littman -- gentlemen, great conversation. Thank you.

VAUSE: We'll catch up next hour.

SESAY: Yes.

CHEN: Thank you.

VAUSE: Well, for a closer look at how Trump was able to turn a billion dollar loss into a tax windfall, we are joined now by Ed McCaffrey. He's a law and economics professor at the University of Southern California here in Los Angeles.

Ed -- thanks for being with us.

You know, some have raised the possibility that this billion dollar business loss wasn't actually of Trump's money but other people's money. That he made it out of losses that others incurred doing business with him. How does that actually work?

ED MCCAFFREY, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN LOS ANGELES: Well, that's a great question -- John. And here's the discussion about this. There's a lot of confusion, you know. Tax is very, very complicated.

So all we know for sure is that Trump had $900 million, a billion dollars in present value terms in tax losses in 1995. That meant for the next 15 years he didn't have to pay any tax. That meant he could earn a billion dollars which might mean a normal person -- quote unquote "normal person" would owe $400 million, Donald Trump would owe nothing.

All we have is that fact. We don't have the tax returns. So we have surrogates saying it represents his real money and he really invested but Donald Trump seems never to invest his real money.

[00:15:04] He's not investing his real money in his presidential campaign. His history, the art of the deal is one of the use of other people's money and leverage. And there are certainly sophisticated tax strategies where you can generate tax losses far in excess of any dollars you put in.

Let me give you one example. Andrew Beal who is an investor from Dallas, a financier, had a tax shelter plan in the 1990s that generated $4 billion in tax losses. Those losses were ultimately challenged by the IRS and disallowed in court. Beal, to this day, says what he did was perfectly legal.

Why am I bringing up Andrew Beal? He's a friend of Donald Trump's. He endorsed Donald Trump. And Donald Trump last month named Andrew Beal one of his economic advisers. So there's a world out there -- Bernie Sanders is right -- there is a world out there of billionaires who have figured out how not to pay tax.

Donald Trump himself doesn't know that. Donald Trump is not saying what he did. He's not sharing his tax returns. Donald Trump's tax proposals do not have anything about shutting down any loophole. They seem to increase loopholes.

VAUSE: Yes.

MCCAFFREY: So there are a lot of mysteries here and the answers have to be in those tax returns.

VAUSE: This is the point thought. The "New York Times" made the point of saying that he could have paid no federal taxes for the past 17 years or so. But that's an important distinction to make and the only way that anybody will know for certain is if Donald Trump releases his tax returns. Is that a fair point?

MCCAFFREY: Yes and no -- John. I'm not sure how fair a point that is in the sense Donald Trump could only have paid taxes from 1995 to 2010 if he earned more than $1 billion. Either than that he would have to have not used his losses and not taken advantage of the tax benefit he had. So it's possible but unlikely.

You're absolutely right that the answer to all the questions lies in the tax returns. But it's extremely unlikely that he paid tax over those 15 years.

VAUSE: Very quick -- Ed, we're out of time. But what part of the business empire do you think was the one that most likely racked up such huge losses?

MCCAFFREY: Well, one thing about the Beal kind of tax shelter is it's a purely financial deal. It has nothing do with anything real. So certainly the casinos would be responsible for generating a lot of losses.

Why Trump himself got the tax benefit of those losses without being responsible for paying back the debt or paying income on the discharge of debt, these are very big questions. And I think there are many, many more questions after the "New York Times" story than before and we -- the Trump campaign owes it to the American people to explain this stuff.

VAUSE: And a lot of people want to see those tax returns; a lot of people asking many questions about Donald Trump right now and his business dealings.

Ed -- thanks so much for being with us and for trying to explain some very complicated tax law. Appreciate it.

MCCAFFREY: No problem at all -- John. And thank you for trying to get the people to understand it.

VAUSE: We do our best. Thanks.

CNN is carrying the only debate between the vice presidential candidates. It airs Wednesday at 2:00 a.m. in London, 9:00 a.m. in Hong Kong.

SESAY: Right. Time for a quick break now.

U.S. officials say their patience with Russia has run out. Why they're suspending talks with Moscow over the conflict in Syria -- just ahead.

VAUSE: Plus, jewel thieves (inaudible) one of the world's biggest celebrities -- how gunmen broke into Kim Kardashian's Paris apartment. More on that later this hour.

[00:18:42] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JAVAHERI: Weather watch for the Americas. Meteorologist Pedram Javaheri watching what is Hurricane Matthew right now. A major hurricane, Category Four strength sitting out there just south of the island of Haiti and the Hispaniola and of course, Jamaica in the path of this storm system.

The storm had shifted its track over the past several hours. At this point it could impact portions of western Haiti some time during daybreak on Tuesday; a second landfall into the afternoon hours around eastern Cuba. Beyond that it really slows down significantly and could impact -- severely impact the island of Bahamas and potentially the south eastern coast of the United States.

A major concern remains a tremendous volume of water forecast to fall. Some areas could see upwards of a meter. We know one of the poorest nations in the world is the island of Haiti and the population there extremely high -- the second most populous island in the Caribbean. And Haiti with 11 million people so it's a story certainly worth following. We'll have more throughout the day across CNN.

But notice, to the north as we go some cool temperatures trying to filter in towards the north but much of the United States still hanging on to late summer warmth. The perspective there of course into early autumn -- 29 degrees, a very warm set up across Atlanta, Dallas at 32, Winnipeg seeing a little bit of shift with teens in the forecast and some showers pushing in, while thunderstorms and wet weather from Cartagena towards Kingston, Managua and Belize City -- all of them could see some tropical weather moving in, temps there around 32 degrees, Panama (ph) around 36.

SESAY: Welcome back, everyone. The U.S. is suspending talks with Russia over the crisis in Syria. Officials say Russia failed on its part to uphold the agreed-upon ceasefire.

VAUSE: U.S.-Russia relations now seem to be at a new post-Cold War low. American personnel are being recalled from Switzerland. They were there to work with Russia on targeting ISIS. Russia announced the same day it would suspend an arms reduction agreement with the United States.

SESAY: Well, CNN military analyst, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona joins us now live via Skype from Fort Orford, Oregon. Colonel Francona -- always good to speak to you.

In your view what is the U.S. administration's calculation here by suspending bilateral talks with Russia over Syria?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I think they've given up. Secretary Kerry was quite blunt in some of his remarks the other day. Said that he has absolutely failed on Syria and I think he's right.

There's no common ground any more. The Russians continue to bomb almost indiscriminately. They are going after these hospitals in many cities across Syria. The Syrian air force is still bombing a variety of targets, mostly going after anti-regime rebels.

So there is just no good will anymore between the United States and Russia. Everybody believes that there needs to be some political dialogue but the Russians don't seem to be interested in that unless they get their way.

And I just don't see this letting up any time soon. I know John Kerry believes that there is only a political solution but the Russians believe that there is a military solution here.

SESAY: Colonel Francona, with bilateral talks off the table what other options does the U.S. administration have to bring about a ceasefire? I mean is there a Plan B?

FRANCONA: Unfortunately, there does not appear to be. It looks like the United States is going to concentrate on what we originally set out to do and that was to defeat ISIS and to go after the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.

I think the other goal of the removal of the Bashar al Assad regime is now off the table. I don't think it's doable given the current situation. And as long as the Russians are there, the Iranians are there, Hezbollah is there, Iraqi militias are there propping up the Assad government it just doesn't seem that we are going to be able to remove him any time soon. Maybe in the future in a political solution but certainly not what we're doing right now.

SESAY: So Colonel Francona, the U.S. is throwing its hands up, effectively signaling that diplomacy is dead. But isn't there a danger here that what we're going to see is a further merging of main stream rebel groups in Syria with the jihadist elements like Jabhat Fatah al Sham, formerly the al Nusra Front?

[00:25:08] FRANCONA: Yes. And that's one of the things the Russians were complaining about. They wanted us to delineate exactly where these groups were so we could go after them together, go after the Islamist groups and ISIS. And we're unwilling to do that maybe because we can't or we don't want to.

But I think that the reality on the ground that these groups are all merging because as the Syrian army backed by the Russians and all their allies are getting stronger and they're having more successes on the ground, these groups have to unite. That's their only chance of survival.

I don't think it's going to work. I think that the Russians are eventually going to take Aleppo.

SESAY: Yes. And that just pushes the chances of a ceasefire agreement even further away.

FRANCONA: Exactly. Exactly. I don't see any move toward another ceasefire because as long as the Russians continue to pound Aleppo, and they are pounding it with a vengeance. They are trying to bomb that enclave of 200,000 people into submission and they're stopping any kind of humanitarian aid from getting in there and they're demolishing the medical facilities. It's just a tragedy what is going on in Aleppo.

SESAY: Yes, in front of the world's eyes.

Colonel Francona -- always a pleasure. Thanks so much for the insight.

FRANCONA: Good be with you.

VAUSE: And still to come here, could we see an October surprise from North Korea. Why experts the country may try to provoke its enemies in the coming weeks.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VAUSE: Welcome back, everybody. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM, live from Los Angeles. I'm John Vause.

[00:30:00] SESAY: And I'm Isha Sesay.

The headlines this hour. A strong category 4 storm is inching closer to Haiti. That island has already been hit by high winds and rain from Hurricane Matthew. At least two people have been killed in this storm over the past week.

Someone posted this video from Jamaica's capital saying the streets were flooded after just 20 minutes of rain. It's the strongest storm to hit there in decades.

JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is suspending talks with Russia over the crisis in Syria. Officials accused Moscow of failing to uphold a ceasefire. The U.S. is bringing back personnel from Strickland who was supposed to work with the Russians on targeting ISIS in Syria.

SESAY: A member of Afghanistan's parliament says Taliban militants have taken control of the City of Kunduz. The Taliban briefly captured the city last year. Taliban say this video shows (INAUDIBLE) early Monday, but Afghan forces are fighting back and trying to regain control.

VAUSE: Colombia's government is trying to revive a peace deal with FARC rebels after a vote has leaves a shock rejection at the polls. The president met with political representatives on Monday and says negotiations will continue in Cuba. FARC's leader also says the group will maintain a ceasefire which has been in place since last June.

SESAY: Now if history is an indication, we could see an October surprise from North Korea.

VAUSE: Experts say the country likes to flex its muscle right as the United States elects a new president.

Details from Brian Todd.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): A new warning that Kim Jong-un may try to provoke the U.S. and send a message of intimidation sometime in the next month, around the time of the November election.

The warning comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, and is published on its Web site, Beyond Parallel. The group says for some 60 years, Kim, his father and grandfather have demonstrated a pattern of trying to incite tensions around the time America votes.

Just this year alone, Kim Jong-un has fired off 15 missile tests, two nuclear bomb tests, making five overall. What could be next?

VICTOR CHA, SENIOR ADVISER, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: I think it could be a sixth nuclear test. It could be launching of their rocket to put a slight in orbit which demonstrates ballistic missile capability. Doing a major test would be a way of trying to intimidate the incoming president.

TODD: Whoever is President will face an increasingly dangerous North Korean dictator. CIA Director John Brennan, in an interview with CNN's Erin Burnett, said North Korea is the biggest security risk for next president. Brennan called Kim a megalomaniac, calculating and delusional.

JOHN BRENNAN, DIRECTOR, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY: He has invested so much of his effort in building a military and nuclear capability, and he thinks this is his ticket to greatness. I think it's his ticket to oblivion.

TODD: Analysts say one reason Kim's being provocative is to cover his flank inside North Korea and there could be good reason for that. Tonight, CNN has learned that some North Koreans have spoken out against their regime.

CSIS commissioned a non-governmental organization to secretly go inside North Korea and talk to ordinary citizens. They showed us the hand written results of their survey of 36 people in nine provinces. Asked what makes them most angry about their government, most of them said it's when the regime takes away things they've earned.

CHA: If you are a farmer and you make a little bit more besides what the government asks you to make and the government takes that away, that makes you upset, or when you collected some savings through some sort of personal enterprise and the government issues an unordinary tax to try to take that money away from you.

TODD (on-camera): Victor Cha says the people conducting the questioning had to move fast, had to move in secret, could only spend a few minutes with each person who they spoke to. Not only did they risk their lives doing this, but the people who participated also took huge risks. They didn't know that the stranger asking them questions wasn't spying for the regime.

Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SESAY: We shall see. Time for a quick break now.

And Kim Kardashian West forced to beg for her life in Paris. How one of the world's biggest celebrity ended up in a robbery at gunpoint.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VAUSE: Welcome back, everybody.

Reality TV star Kim Kardashian is back in New York. She is badly shaken after being robbed at gunpoint in Paris. French official say five gunmen disguised as police officers stole an estimated $10 million worth of jewelry and a cell phone.

SESAY: Sources say West begged for her life before she was bound and gagged and forced into a bathtub.

VAUSE: Joining us now is entertainment journalist Segun Oduolowu and Scott Selby, co-author of "Flawless: Inside the Largest Diamond Heist in History."

Guys, thanks for being with us.

SEGUN ODUOLOWU, ENTERTAINMENT JOURNALIST: Thank you.

VAUSE: Scott, first to you, how much would the thieves have known about their target ahead of time. Look, this was Kim Kardashian on social media in Paris before the robbery.

Look at this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) KIM KARDASHIAN WEST, REALITY TV STAR: On our way to Givenchy.

The show is about to start and we have (INAUDIBLE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: She's also well known for showing off that massive diamond ring. There it is on Instagram.

Kind of a big target, huh?

SCOTT SELBY, CO-AUTHOR, "FLAWLESS: INSIDE THE LARGEST DIAMOND HEIST IN HISTORY": Yes. She definitely did the thieves a huge favor helping them with all their research just simply by following her social media feeds. They would know everything she was up to.

SESAY: Segun, you believe it's inevitable the celebrities will be preyed upon by thieves and scoundrels?

ODUOLOWU: Well, I think this is the show me era, where before celebrities really tried to commandeer their privacy. Now celebrity, part of it is being out in the open. And for someone like Kim Kardashian, where her celebrity is built on being a show woman, being on Instagram, being on Twitter, being on every social media outlet, she does make a huge bulls-eye on her back.

Nobody deserves to be robbed at gunpoint, but as you said you kind of make it easy for the thieves to see what they want to steal.

VAUSE: Segun, do you think that this will result in some kind of change of behavior. I mean, they are kind of locked into this, "I'm on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook all the time for my business," but if that business is going to get you robbed, do you think there will be some kind of adjust here in how much they put out there for the public to see.

ODUOLOWU: I hope not. And it's going to sound weird. Because I do come on and I talk about the Kardashian and things like that. But I don't want her robbery to make her now suddenly afraid to live her life.

The one thing that we do, whether you agree with their showmanship or not, you admire their willingness to live the way they want to live. And they shouldn't let this robbery all of a sudden change who they are, or make them afraid, or make them, you know, so self conscious that they don't want to go outside.

Hire better security, maybe have more bodyguard and live your life the way you want to. Being rob shouldn't -- don't let them steal your self worth or your self being.

SESAY: As we talk about changing behavior, possibly in the case of the Kardashians, let's talk about Paris.

I mean, you've covered and you've written about the heists that have taken place a number in recent time. Will this change behavior in Paris and displays of wealth?

[00:40:20] SELBY: I don't think it's going to change anything in that respect because it had heist after heist, wherein people come to these very high profile celebrity events in France, for instance fashion week is a big one. The biggest by far is of course the Cannes Film Festival.

And in recent years, we've had three heist there. And the thing is celebrities come there and then the people who operate and want to promote to celebrities. So you have diamond dealers coming there. And normally they are hard targets who back there in America I'm sure that the Kardashians have all kinds of security. They live in a gated community. They have all kinds of things going for them.

But here they're out of their element, but they are bringing some of their wealth with them. And as long as that happens, this will be an easy target for thieves.

VAUSE: This is a statement that the mayor of Paris put out shortly after the robbery. In written parts, "I condemn the attack Kim Kardashian suffered last night in her hotel. She has my support and will always be welcome here in Paris. I have full confidence that the police force as part of their investigation will quickly identify and apprehend the perpetrators of these acts.

Domestically, what are the chances these guys are going to get caught?

SELBY: I think it's highly unlikely. I mean, these guys are professionals. They are in and out fast.

SESAY: They got away on bicycle.

SELBY: That's how you do it.

ODUOLOWU: You know, if you believe the reports. I mean, they were in and out while the security, the body guard was out with Kris Jenner and her sisters and left minutes before the body guard got back.

So it seems like this was professional. They had police uniforms on.

VAUSE: (INAUDIBLE)

ODUOLOWU: And the whole nine. I just -- again, we talk about celebrity. I write about celebrities. We deal with celebrity a lot. And a big part of being celebrity is showing your lifestyle. If you are going to get targeted for it, then what's the point of being a celebrity? I think they have to still live the life the way they want to.

SESAY: Very quickly, obviously, lots to talk about Paris and what it says about Paris. We'll also talk about Kanye West, who was on stage and this happened.

Let's play it for our viewers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) KANYE WEST: I'm sorry, there's a family emergency. I have to stop the show.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SESAY: So that was the moment he ended the show when he was told that something happened.

There seems to be some discussion about this online. I mean, was there any other action he could have had?

ODUOLOWU: Listen, we -- look, I would be the first to crush Kanye like Obama did for some of his buffoonery. This is the one time where I give him a standing ovation. Because you have just found out your wife and the mother of your children has been robbed at gun point, has been duct tape, has been bound and gagged in a foreign country.

Get off the stage, because you are getting information. I mean -- you're not in the same right frame of mind to continue rapping about anything or singing about anything. I applaud him for this. This is the one time I'm squarely in Kanye's corner.

VAUSE: And, Scott, can he kiss that jewelry goodbye, because -- can they sell that stuff, anyway?

SELBY: Yes, for sure. That jewelry is long gone. Like I wrote about it in my book "Flawless." There's easy to find a fence that will take about ten cents on the dollar and they'll break it down.

So the precious metals will be melted. That will be cast into new rings. All the small and medium stones will just be pried at. They will be sold on to some corrupt dealer and (INAUDIBLE), who will sell it to somebody new who has no idea the next day, somebody new. By the tenth buyer, nobody knows and it will be in America within months.

The hard thing, though, is this big stones. A big, colored special stones, these stones we're all talking about, you can't sell those. Because people will all know what that is. And there's no point in buying a stolen stone. Because somebody will eventually go to court and take it back from you. You're out the money you spent.

So the only thing you can do is then work with a corrupt polisher or corrupt cleaver and change the nature of that stone so it's no longer identifiable.

ODUOLOWU: So you basically cut it.

SELBY: That's it exactly and turn it into something new.

SESAY: But then you lose some of the value, right?

SELBY: You lose a lot of the value.

ODUOLOWU: But better lose the value than going to jail. I mean, if you are the thief.

SELBY: 100 percent correct.

ODUOLOWU: I'm not trying to make a joke, but seriously.

VAUSE: We should say -- I mean, we wish them well.

SESAY: We do. Nobody deserves that.

VAUSE: At least it's a ring and not her life.

ODUOLOWU: Absolutely.

VAUSE: That's the upside.

SELBY: And presumably it's all insured.

VAUSE: And they'll probably make a video out of it.

SESAY: OK, moving on.

VAUSE: (INAUDIBLE)

SESAY: And thank you --

VAUSE: Segun and Scott, thanks.

SESAY: And thank you for watching CNN NEWSROOM live from Los Angeles. I'm Isha Sesay.

VAUSE: I'm John Vause. "World Sport" is up next. Then we'll be back with another hour of news from all around the world. You're watching CNN.

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