Return to Transcripts main page

QUEST MEANS BUSINESS

"Heavy Losses" for ISIS in Mosul Battle; CNN Reporter Caught in Crossfire in Mosul; New Polls Give Election Edge to Clinton; E*Trade Survey: Clinton Better for Stocks, Mosul Key to ISIS Money Machine; Economy; Netflix Subscriber Growth Beats Expectations in Q3; Bon Jovi: American Workers Struggling with Inequality. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired October 17, 2016 - 16:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[16:00:00] RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: Bells are now ringing on Wall Street, start of a new day. The Dow is down 58 points. Let's see how we

do at the start, look at the big sign, the New York Stock Exchange, and -- oh, that is what you call a robust gavel. It ended trading across the

world, no major market is now trading on Monday, October the 17th. Tonight, the march on Mosul continues. There are heavy losses for ISIS.

We're going to be live at the Iraqi battlefields and we will explain why Mosul is so important.

Twenty-one days until the U.S. election and the new polls show voters and investors alike are hoping that Hillary Clinton wins the presidency. And

we're binge watching and waiting. Netflix latest earnings are due out any time. We will have them for you in this hour. I'm Richard Quest live in

New York and I mean business.

Good evening tonight, the battle to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul is well and truly under way, and currently under the grip of ISIS. The city's

important both strategically and symbolically. We're going to show you why and how, during the course of this program. After conquering Mosul two

years ago, this was where ISIS first declared itself as a new Islamic state. So losing Mosul would be a significant blow. It is the first day

of the offensive and already the Iraq military says it is inflicted, in their words, "heavy loss of life and equipment" on ISIS."

Right now the fighting is limited to the outskirts of Mosul. The expectation is that it will intensify as the troops reach the urban center.

Some hundred thousand, mostly Iraqi and Kurdish forces are now waging war on a much smaller enemy. It's estimated there are 5,000 ISIS fighters.

And CNN's Nick Peyton Walsh is on the ground just outside of Mosul, and describes some of the skirmishes as staggering. He was actually caught in

the cross fire while trying to file this report. I want you to watch his report that he sent us. We'll be talking to Nick in just a moment live,

but seethe sort of conditions he has been explaining.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PEYTON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Behind me now last just gone in what must surely be a substantial explosion. We have not

been hearing aircraft in the past few moments, so that may well be one of a number of car bombs that ISIS have been deploying in their bid to keep

Peshmerga off of the road. This is a volatile situation. And it is also one in which Peshmerga, this stage, appeared to be prevailing. They've

taken this five or six kilometer stretch of road here. But the villages around it do still remain volatile. And that is the question, what kind of

resistance will they continue to face? The Iraqi military at some point will have to push down here towards Mosul. But this has been an effort

with much international support. A lot of coalition planning with American airpower.

[GUNFIRE]

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Nick Peyton Walsh joins us now live near Mosul. The latest position and the latest fighting was going on late into the night?

WALSH: It is quiet behind me, Richard. This was the first day, a limited scope of the Peshmerga operation, 5 to 6 kilometers of the road. They say

they've cleaned nine villages in 24 hours, 200 square kilometers. As we saw ourselves though, there are still pockets of ISIS in that area and that

could significantly slow the advance. Here's what we saw today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WALSH: They have been waiting years to finally push through the lines to take on ISIS's brutality. And when the day game, it was still a dusty slow

grind. Peshmerga into the desert, flanked the main road to Mosul. Distinctive American vehicles with Western occupants in their convoy.

Airstrikes often hitting the places they were headed to first. Hopes that ISIS might not fight in the tiny settlements around Mosul quickly dashed.

This is the first village they've moved down the road toward Mosul, and they are encountering heavy resistance and returning fire with what they

have, which are often blunt and old.

[16:05:00] They want this over fast. Suddenly there's panic when they spot a car, a suicide car bomb racing toward them. It's ISIS. One, two rockets

trying to hit it. The third is lucky. They pushed on towards the main prize, the road itself going to Mosul. Flanked by oil fires lit by ISIS.

And airstrikes piling in regardless of shell still landing near the Peshmerga. A casualty taken away. Down on the main objective, the road

itself, ISIS sent two car bombs at them and attacked from both sides.

The Iraqi military too as some point will have to push down here towards Mosul, but this has been an effort with a much international support. A

lot of coalition planning, and American airpower.

[GUNFIRE]

WALSH: Shut the doors. Better move. He lost it.

[GUNFIRE]

WALSH: Stay in the car, now.

ISIS still everywhere. Still in the hills. They give chase to one man, an ISIS fighter. He shoots at the Peshmerga. Humvees rescue him and they

hunt on. An ISIS fighter pops up from a tunnel and shoots. He blows himself up. A tenacity and desire to die that will surely slow and bloody

the fight and effort. Nick Peyton Walsh, for CNN, near Mosul, northern Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: We will be talking to Nick in just a second. The cameraman incidentally, reporting on that story as well is CNN's Scottie McQuinny,

who was also with Nick Peyton Walsh getting those extremely important and dramatic pictures.

And Nick, as we look at the report, and forgive maybe the naivety of the question here, but is the outcome in any doubt? Bearing in mind the

difference in numbers. I understand there may be just a question of how much damage. How many civilians, how many people killed? But is the

outcome in any doubt?

WALSH: I think the outcome in terms of will ISIS eventually be defeated in Mosul is most likely certain to happen at some point. The question is what

though to get to that point? What happens to the 1.2 million civilians inside the city? They are predominantly Sunni. Do they find themselves

confronting the Iranian backed Shia militia? Mostly coming from Baghdad say they want a part of the Mosul operation. Does that then spark Turkey

to get involved? Are they threatened as well? Does the Iraqi army have a very difficult job going through urban areas? Do people get hit by random

shelling? That's one of the things we heard from those still stuck inside the city. So, yes, probably the final point we get to will still be the

same. The question is, how many people have to die? And what kind of sectarian are you going to inflame by getting there, Richard?

QUEST: And finally, are we going to see the awfulness of hand-to-hand combat, street-to-street fighting as this comes to the --

WALSH: Unavoidable I would have to say probably in the west of the city. That's a very densely packed urban area. ISIS are unlikely to want to give

it up too easily. This is a key part of their caliphate certainly in Iraq and very symbolic to them. The real question is does the core hub of ISIS

still in Mosul really want to go down "with the ship" or do they have a plan to flee to Raqqa in Syria. We don't know that answer yet, Richard.

QUEST: Nick, stay safe, obviously to you and the team, and thank you for that, Nick Peyton Walsh who is in Mosul or just on the outskirts of Mosul.

When Nick was talking there about the strategic importance. It's worth just taking a moment or two. Not only is Mosul a crucial symbolic hub for

ISIS, it also has strategic importance for both sides. Now as you can see here Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq after Baghdad, and it is the

biggest under ISIS control. Nick was alluding to the population of more than 1 million people, 2 million were there before ISIS took control in

June two years ago,

[16:10:00] Is about 1.2 or 1.3 million now. But look at where the city sits. Get right in there and you'll see what I'm talking about. It is

near the borders of Turkey to the north, and Syria to the west. And that make it's a key movement trading hub. You can understand by retaking Mosul

ISIS fighters would find it much tougher to move some fighters and weapons and supplies. If they lose Mosul, it becomes much more difficult for them

to move about. It is also near some of Iraq's most crucial oil fields. And money from oil is one of the massive revenue streams that have been

funding ISIS. The legal funding from the oil fields. Several million dollars a day are believed to be going into the ISIS fields. Joining us

now, Fawaz Gerges, author and the chair of contemporary Middle East studies at the London School of Economics. Nick Peyton Walsh told us about the

fighting and what he says is eventually the coalition forces will win the day. But the strategic importance, can you explain to us?

FAWAZ GERGES, AUTHOR, "ISIS: A HISTORY": Richard, Mosul is strategically, economically and symbolically the most significant city that ISIS holds,

both in Iraq and Syria. As you have suggested, it's the most populous city that ISIS controls. It has open borders with both Turkey and Syria, ISIS

has been able to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of extraction of resources, money, oil, and trade. Mosul too, for your own

viewers is the cultural capital of ISIS. It was in June 2014 that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the establishment of the caliphate from Mosul.

QUEST: But if they lose Mosul -- and I will ask you in a moment whether you believe the inevitability of that -- if they lose Mosul, where does

ISIS, assuming those that are still alive, or the remnants elsewhere in Syria and Iraq. Where do they regroup away from that?

GERGES: First of all, Richard, if ISIS loses Mosul, this would be a turning point. This would be the beginning of the end of the territorial

caliphate in Iraq. The caliphate itself, the Islamic state, as opposed to ISIS being a terrorist group and in insurgency. You have between 4,000 and

8,000 fighters in Mosul. Give or take, nobody knows exactly the numbers. The Americans and the Iraqis have been trying really leave a particular

road for them. To leave to Syria. There is a great debate unfolding within the American and Iraqi forces whether or not to allow them to escape

to Raqqa. Because as we've seen in the last few weeks some of the wounded fighters and their families basically have left to Raqqa. Raqqa is the de

facto capital of ISIS in Syria.

QUEST: Again, forgive me if it all seems rather basic to an expert like yourself, but obviously this is new territory for most of us. Do you

subscribe to Nick's view that it will be bloody? It will be deadly. It will be and awful. But the outcome of the battle for Mosul is not in

doubt.

GERGES: The question, Richard, is not if Mosul will fall. The question is, how long will it take? Weeks or months? The costs in blood and

treasure and the morning after, I think the morning after question is as important as the fall of Mosul. The reason why the fight for Mosul has not

really begun earlier, because the Americans and the Iraqis have been trying to really think about the morning after. The potential humanitarian

disaster as the United Nations expects, you'll have almost 800,000 people in Mosul. The question of law and order, the question of governance, the

question of what do you do if you have 4,000 or 5,000 fighters who try to insert themselves within the refugees. There are many, many questions to

be asked. We have to wait and see if the Iraqi government has learned the lessons from Tikrit, from Falluja from Ramadi, if it has governess, a road

map, and also capacity. Because it is easier to win the battle against ISIS and lose the war for the future of Iraq. This is a challenge facing

the Iraqi government today.

[16:15:01] QUEST: We're grateful, sir, that you've been with us tonight to put it into perfective. Thank you for joining us. Always good to have

your views. Fawaz Gerges joining us from London.

We move from the Middle East to the United States and the U.S. election. Politics and money, the U.S. election is getting ever closer, 21 days.

Tight races remaining in three key battlegrounds. I will be talking to three experts who are going to give us the idea of what is happening. It

is an embarrassment of riches, and it is after the break. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: There are three weeks before the election day. And the three things that matter in deciding for the race for the White House. The

polls, the profits, and the general public. Now the latest polls have got it right. Hillary Clinton is on course to win. The new CNN polls show

Secretary Clinton with an eight-point lead over Donald Trump, 47, 39. Gary Johnson obtained a six and two for Jill Stein. While Trump has complained

that this election will be rigged against him. The race is still very tight in the battleground states. A new CNN/ORC polls showing that in

Ohio, Trump is leading by four points. Over into the west, and Hillary Clinton leads in both Nevada and North Carolina. Voters in all three

states say they think Trump would handle the economy better than Hillary Clinton. So these are the battleground states. Remember this map because

we've got it over here. CNN's political director, David Chalian, is with me now. Tell me what I need to know about this map.

DAVE CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: First, let's just look at Hillary Clinton's number. With the states leaning her way or solidly in her

corner, she's already there. She is above 270. So that means Donald Trump could win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada the four remaining real

tossup states and still not get there. He would still be shy. His mission, and this is why it's such a --

QUEST: But these states are all still in play.

CHALIAN: They are.

So take Florida for example, it doesn't help him much. Let's give him all of the states.

CHALIAN: Go for it.

QUEST: Let's give him all the states.

CHALIAN: He is at 264, still six short. And by the way, you just said are polls. Nevada, we have Hillary Clinton up two. North Carolina we have

Hillary Clinton up one. Brand-new poll out of Florida today has Hillary Clinton up four. So you can see if it starts going the way of the polls,

she will be building a significant landslide here. The key is a state like Pennsylvania. Because Donald Trump needs to dig into some territory that

is already leaning in Hillary Clinton's direction. So let's give this to Trump. Let's go back and give these battleground states to Trump as you

blew me out of there.

QUEST: I'll give it to him.

CHALIAN: So it is Pennsylvania -- OK, that would put him over again, right now Pennsylvania, she has a six-point edge, but this is key. This is why

you see Donald Trump spending so much time in Pennsylvania.

QUEST: As I understand it, we really are once again out of 300 million people, 50 states, we are once again back to the question of one or two

states?

CHALIAN: Yes, there is no doubt, or three or four to say the least.

QUEST: And he has to take them all?

CHALIAN: Pretty much he has to run the table. That is why it is such a difficult path for him. Because he really has to run the table and take

some of her territory.

QUEST: So just talk me through now what are the issues that people are now saying. How much is the sex scandals of last week moved into this week?

[16:20:00] CHALIAN: He probably has already suffered the bulk of his damage on that score. I would say if you look at the new NBC/Wall Street

Journal poll or the new Washington Post/ABC news poll, we see when people say majorities, six and ten in this new national poll, say it's not going

to impact my vote either way. We're seeing that yes he is having trouble with women. We see him down 20 points among women in a new national poll.

But when people are asked are you more or less likely to vote him? There certainly less likely to vote for him, but a majority still say no impact.

QUEST: Sir, I was in Luxembourg last week and in Stockholm, Sweden.

CHALIAN: You travel to good places.

QUEST: And in London as well. And the one question everybody still asked me is, can Donald Trump win? So let me ask you. Can Donald Trump win?

CHALIAN: The answer is yes. He has to run the table on those yellow battleground states, and he basically has to hope for just an unbelievable

turnout among his core supporters. White non-college educated folks, particularly in this upper Midwest region. If they overwhelm in turn out.

They show up and Hillary Clinton supporters stay home, that's how Donald Trump wins the presidency.

QUEST: But he's got to win the states. Just not winning every state by huge amount. It's not about how many you get always, is where they are.

CHALIAN: That is right.

QUEST: We've got more to talk about, thank you.

We'll look at the markets and you will see how the U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday. Look, the market had a few little hiccups. It was up and then

it was down, and then it was up. I believe it was a bit of orders there. Oil prices and declining oil prices pushed energy stocks down. Wall Street

also touched its lows of the session. And the reason roundabout here, is we had the Fed's Vice Chairman, Stanley Fisher, whose been on this program

many times. He says he's very concerned about the U.S. economy and says low interest rates are partly to blame. In specifics he's talking about

the fact that low interest rates and a slow economy, it's healthy way forward over such a long period of time. Now most investors are saying

Hillary Clinton will be the best candidate for the stock market at the moment according to a new survey. CNNMoney's Heather Long joins us now.

Good to see you. Tell me what this is all about.

HEATHER LONG, CNN MONEY SENIOR WRITER AND EDITOR: Yes, that's right. It's not just the political polls pointing toward Hillary Clinton now. We also

have the market polls. So you were just mentioning this interesting data we got out today exclusive to CNN by E*TRADE. And they asked active

investors, so these are people with at least $10,000 in the market and they are investing in buying stocks. Who do you think would be the best

candidate for the stock market and the economy? Sixty percent saying Hillary Clinton, only 40 percent saying Trump. And also that's double the

number that were saying Hillary back in April. So really good turnout for her. So we have been looking at market metrics.

QUEST: So the stocks won.

LONG: That's right. It's the only one that still pointing to Donald Trump.

QUEST: But it's come off its backs.

LONG: It has a little bit. So remember this is the one that has been spot on predicting since 1944 who will win the presidency, and looks at the

change between August 1st and October 31st. And because the stock market is lower now than where was then, that is telling us more towards Trump.

QUEST: We've got 21 days left.

LONG: That's right.

QUEST: Keep watching and these various --

LONG: But the Mexican peso and gold, all those other metrics pointing towards very good for Hillary Clinton.

QUEST: Keep watching. Thank you very much indeed.

Robert Johnson is joining me now in the studio, president of the New Institute for New Economic Thinking. Good to see you, sir. Also former

chief economist of the U.S. senate banking committee. Nice to see you, sir. We've heard the profits. We've heard the polls. But now tell me

about the people?

ROBERT JOHNSON, PRESIDENT, INSTITUTE FOR NEW ECONOMIC THINKING: You mean the Profits with an f not a ph.

QUEST: Right tell me about the people.

JOHNSON: About the people. In this country there are a lot of people who felt they'd been left out by globalization. They're afraid of smart

technology and they see money in politics exacerbating the concentration of incumbent wealth and they're mad. That's Trump's appeal.

[16:25:00] QUEST: How would you describe them? White, middle-class, educated, college-educated, what is that?

JOHNSON: They are the people that were left behind in de- industrialization. Who are primarily white, over 50, and not highly educated. But there are young what they call the millennials and they want

no part of this rigged system, as Donald Trump talks about it. And they were largely Bernie Sanders supporters and you see at every public

appearance, Donald Trump appealing to that group.

QUEST: Is it likely though that that Bernie Sanders idealist, if you like, goes for Donald Trump with this far right wing, some would say racist

agenda that is obviously a controversial -- it is hard to say other than to stop Hillary Clinton.

JOHNSON: Racist and sexist agenda, both I think played large in the last few days.

But these people say the system is rigged, we don't trust the government. We've got to blow it up somehow. And so they'll be a bit on the fence.

I've talked to young people on both sides of this issue. They don't like the toxicity of social relations or of Donald Trump whatsoever. But they

also think the Clintons are business as usual, they're the inside game, and they don't like that.

QUEST: OK, when we talk about Donald Trump's core support, does he still have many women who are in that support bearing after the events of last

week?

JOHNSON: My understanding is from the polls that Republican women are largely going to vote Republican. That's it quite --

QUEST: Is this an argument, and again you heard me just say to David Chalian, I was in Europe last week in Luxembourg, Stockholm in London. And

you must talk to people overseas.

JOHNSON: I do. I'll be there tomorrow.

QUEST: many of our viewers tonight find it inconceivable the support that he still enjoys and that he will still get over 40 percent of the vote

possibly.

JOHNSON: Well this is a polarized country. And that hidden issue, which you brought up earlier, of race, is an extreme polarizer. Hillary Clinton

is appealing to the African-Americans in ways that have to do with policies, loyalty, public education, infrastructure. Donald Trump is

saying those policies have failed. But I don't see the African-American population migrating in his direction. And therefore those who are anti-

African-American stay there, perhaps when they shouldn't.

QUEST: So taking all of your research together, and taking what you've discovered about the people's side of this, what conclusion can we come to

21 days out?

JOHNSON: Ok. I conclude that Hillary Clinton will win, but she cannot go back to business as usual because the next person show face in four years

will be more skillful than in Trump with that enraged agenda. Because that enraged agenda is not going away until the system of representation in

America improves.

QUEST: and that enraged agenda is appealing to a wider and growing base than before.

JOHNSON: Yes. In your swing states, 13 of them, 10 of them have a lower median income today than they had the day Barack Obama came into office.

QUEST: We're very glad you came in, sir, to talk about that thank you very much indeed.

It is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, start of a new week, papers going everywhere. Coming up next the battle for Mosul. Iraqi and Kurdish troops are

beginning their offensive to take back the city from ISIS. We'll have more details and more discussion on that. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS at the

start of a week.

[16:30:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Hello, I'm Richard Quest. There's a lot more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS coming up in just a moment. When Jon Bon Jovi tells us about his plan to

fight poverty in America. And the earnings are out. The reviews are in. Netflix shares, breaking news, are up 20 percent after hours. Twenty

percent Netflix was up. We will tell you why in the next half hour of QUEST MEANS BUSINESS.

Before we get to any more business news, this is CNN and on this network, the news always comes first.

It is one day to the battle for Mosul and alliance leaders say their forces have already inflicted heavy losses on ISIS. They are also meeting fierce

resistance as they closed in on the city. The offensive may last for weeks or even months. Here is what Iraq's prime minister had to say as he

announced the offensive.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HIDER AL ABADI, IRAQI PRIME MINISTER (through interpreter): Our dearest people in Nineveh province, the victory bell has rung and the operations to

liberate Mosul have begun. I am announcing today the beginning of these heroic operations. To liberate you from the brutality and terrorism of

ISIS. God willing, we will meet soon on the ground of Mosul where we will all celebrate the liberation and your freedom.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: The Russian military says it will halt airstrikes on Aleppo in Syria on Thursday allowing civilians and rebel fighters to leave. The

defense ministry says people can get out along designated routes during the eight hour bombing halt. At least 45 people have died in Aleppo since

Sunday.

Investigators in southwest Germany are trying to determine what caused an explosion at a facility that's owned by one of the world's largest chemical

producers. At least one person is dead and several injured in the explosion. Eight people are still missing. Residents have been asked to

stay indoors.

We need to talk more now about our top story in the battle to drive ISIS out of the Iraqi city of Mosul. In addition to being its hub of

operations, Mosul's played a pivotal role in maintaining the money machine for ISIS. Being close to the oil fields and the oil pipeline that services

Turkey. ISIS has been illegally selling oil to fund its battlefield operations. Now before ISIS took over, Mosul was one of Iraq's main

commercial centers. It had thriving cement, sugar and textile industries. ISIS has cash stored in Mosul and it uses that to pay troops, bribes, and

other expenses. In fact, in January the U.S. targeted a building containing millions of dollars in cash destroying it in an airstrike. You

can see the various bills, as you can see in the top right there, floating in the air. Joining us now, Michael Weiss, CNN contributor and senior

editor at "The Daily Beast". Co-author of a book on ISIS. Michael, good to see you, sir, your joining us from London tonight. We heard the

military story tonight, but the significance from the economic point of view to ISIS cannot be over stated if I understand you right.

MICHAEL WEISS, SENIOR EDITOR, THE DAILY BEAST: That's right. The reason that ISIS controls population centers is because the bulk of its income --

it's actually a misconception that it's making most of its money through the energy trade. The bulk of its income comes from taxation and what they

call confiscation, or the surcharge economy. So the leveeing of fines for any perceived slight against Islamic sharia law. Such as cigarette smoking

or smuggling, or not wearing a veil if you're a woman. These are the ways that ISIS has enriched itself. That's why they call themselves a state.

They have what is effectively an IRS. So if you rob them of what is essentially their second to last remaining population center, that is going

to shrink the ISIS economy dramatically.

QUEST: So do you think we've all made too much of the idea of them siphoning off the oil. Now you remember of course, there was that huge

argument with Turkey, a disagreement over whether Turkey denying that it was buying any oil illegally siphoned off by ISIS.

[16:35:00] WEISS: No, it's not that we've made too much of it. It is certainly the second greatest means of enrichment. When it comes to

Turkey, it's not like the Turkish state has been buying ISIS oil. What they have done is they dug -- they've constructed a makeshift pipeline

under the border. A lot of that oil has been pumped into some of the poorer peasant communities in southern Turkey. I've been to some of these

areas by the way. I can tell you that the petrol trade is booming. Or it was booming as of about two or three years ago.

But with respect to again, how ISIS is making the lion share of its money, it is not to do with energy. In Syria, for instance, Richard, and a lot of

people don't realize this, they're selling oil and natural gas back to the Bashir al-Assad regime which purports to be at war with ISIS. There are

some instances -- there was an electrical utility that's now out of ISIS control. Where there was even an intricate deal. A contract that was

drawn up with Damascus where by like 51 percent of the amount of electricity, and the proceeds from the electricity, would go to ISIS and 49

percent would go back to the Assad regime. There is no up thing as a binary divide in the Middle East. Everybody's doing business with each

other, including the terrorists and the state actors that claim to be at war with them.

QUEST: Let me ask you the question that I have been asking all of our guests this evening. Nick Payton Walsh and Gerges and other. It is a

question of not if but when ISIS falls in Mosul, did you subscribe to that view?

WEISS: Oh, absolutely. I mean, just look at the sheer numbers of what's involved here. You have American, French, British aircraft, American and

French artillery. Several hundred American advisers, really there are going to be Americans in a combat roll. I know the Pentagon doesn't like

to come out and say it like that, but that's the case. But all told, if you count the Iraq forces that are part of this coalition, 100,000 people

are now ranged against a city that is held by around 5,000 jihadists. 100,000 people, Richard. That's the number of American troops that invaded

and occupied Iraq in 2003. So this is a colossal undertaking.

There's absolutely no way ISIS that ISIS can hold out forever. But the real battle, I mean, right now you have seen a kind of lightning blitz

across the cow patches and the farmland area. The Kurds took nine villages it was reported today. The real battle, and the thing you have to pay

attention to, when the Iraqi security forces, who are Sunni Arabs, or the ones that are going into Mosul are going to be Sunni Arabs.

When they enter, the KRG, the Kurdistan Regional Government anticipates six months of house to house fighting. Why? Because ISIS has had had 2 1/2

years to lay IADs throughout every street in that city. To put house born IADs into all the residences. There was a very good dispatch in "The

Guardian" by my friend Martin Chulov, where the Kurds were being essentially lured into a location that they knew was an ISIS targeting

location. Such that when they got there they would be shelled from a distance.

So ISIS is very clever. And they are going to put up a fierce resistance and this could take as much as happy year before the city has completely

fallen. And during that time ISIS is going to export its terrorism abroad. You saw Justice last week, Turkish backed Syrian rebels took Dabiq which is

the supposedly locust of the apocalypse according to ISIS and Islamic theology. When ISIS lost Dabiq, was the first thing they did? They waged

a terror attack against Turkish police in Gaziantep. They're going to do the same thing as they lose Mosul. And they're going to try to target the

West. So that means be prepared in Europe. Be prepared even in North America for ISIS doing its jihadist international routine, as I call it.

QUEST: As you have warned us in the past, Michael, on that very point. Thank you for joining us tonight from London.

WEISS: Sure, my pleasure.

QUEST: What everyone has been talking to us about tonight is the great unknown. Mosul will fall. But what happens to Iraq if it is successful in

seizing control or when it is successful. CNN Senior International Correspondent, Ben Wedeman, is live Irbil. Ben, again I'm going to ask you

to forgive the naivety of the question. But for our business viewers tonight sketch out for me what are the options after Mosul falls?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: As your previous guest was saying, that is a very hard question to answer because this fight

for Mosul could go on for six months. What we have seen in the weeks leading up to the offensive is that the central government in Baghdad and

the regional Kurdish government here in Irbil, have come to an agreement on how the forces will be deployed during this operation to avoid any sort of

sectarian differences. However, if the operation takes six months and involves massive casualties and a huge outflow of refugees from the city,

all of those calculations could very well go out the window as for instance, regional players like Turkey, who insist they will play a role in

this operation. Become involved and very much reshuffle the entire deck. Beyond that, Richard, -- go ahead.

[16:40:00] QUEST: I just want to jump in there, forgive me, but I just wanted to jump in because from what you're saying, the status quo is

obviously untenable and unacceptable because ISIS is there. But what I hear everyone telling me tonight, the future is not as ISIS grim, it

certainly as risky and dangerous in many ways.

WEDEMAN: That is correct, so let's put ISIS aside and assume that someday it will disappear, Richard. You have internal problems in Iraqi that have

been brewing for quite some time. Among the Shia majority you have very clear differences between the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and the

followers of the Baqir group. The largest paramilitary within the so- called popular mobilization units.

You have disagreements among the Kurds. You have tensions between the Kurds and the Shia. Even though there are reasons to be optimistic

regarding this offensive and the effort to get rid of ISIS, and the fact that the Kurds and the Iraqis are cooperating in ways that we have not seen

in decades, if not ever. There are underlying tensions that simply threaten to tear the country apart for the next chapter. So yes, there is

a lot to think about beyond merely ISIS. In fact, recently I was speaking to a Turkish commander in Kirkuk, and he said this war against ISIS is just

the hors d'oeuvres, the main course is coming later.

QUEST: Good grief. Ben Wedeman who is in Irbil. Ben, thank you for that. And for putting it into some wider perspective for us. We much appreciate

it.

So, we thought the business world was complicated. When we come back we will return to our business agenda. Netflix shares up 20 percent in

afterhours trading. The company has just done its third quarter earnings report. Now 20 percent is -- you don't need me to tell you, it's a strong

and really good report. We'll get analysis after the break. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS live from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Welcome back, to QUEST MEANS BUSINESS. It is the start of a business week. It has been an extremely busy day in the business world,

there have been some major earnings news in the past few minutes. So what you and I need to do is have some Business on the Move.

Now, let's see, Pepsi is getting serious about cutting sugar from its drinks. It said removing sugar is based on consumer demand.

[16:45:00] And it is pledging that two thirds of its drinks will have 100 or fewer calories of added sugar by 2025.

Gambling stocks fell around the world after Australia's Crown Resort said that China has detained 18 of its employees. China's foreign ministry told

Reuters they were guilty or suspected of gambling crimes, we have no other details about that.

What a great night to relax on the couch with some popcorn especially for Netflix. Shares are soaring some 20 percent after hours. Because Netflix

just reported its earnings, and said there was 3.5 million more people that signed up. The ice is for Netflix and chill, as I am told, the kids like

to say these days. That is Business on the Move.

Right, Samuel Burke is live in London with more on Netflix. Samuel, 3.6 million but the stock is up 20 percent after hours which erased all of the

losses so far this year. Tell me why, how significant all of this is.

SAMUEL BURKE, CNN MONEY CORRESPONDENT: What a comeback this is. We could go over earnings per share much higher than expected, nearly double al the

revenue. But think there is only one number that matters here, 3.2 million international users. That is how much they went up this quarter, and they

were only expecting 2 million.

They're near saturation in the United States so they will have to depend on this number and it just knocked it out of the park. Now that I'm living

here in the U.K. again, everywhere I go in Europe you hear people talking about Netflix. The way they would talking about a channel like CNN. This

is the real engine of growth for this company. Not just for today for this earnings report but the next years to come.

They have pulled the trigger in nearly every single country and now they are reaping the benefits. If I had your bell, you know I would ring it

right now.

QUEST: Let's stick to the popcorn instead and what is it about Netflix that has been so successful? There have been quarters where results have

not been as impressive. The market has tanked, but $119 a share. And a gain of 20 percent, what are they doing right?

BURKE: The past two quarters were brutal and I think what people thought is it reached a tipping point where everyone saw a successful model and now

people are replicating it. People like Amazon and folks like Hulu. But content is king and Amazon has not had the big hits the way that Netflix

has. They have shows like, "Stranger Things". That sci-fi show which is doing very well, and "Narcos" about the Columbian drug lord, Pablo Escobar,

and people are talking about those shows and tuning in and doing Netflix and chill, I can't believe you said that on air.

QUEST: I don't know what it is, but people of your generation, who can barely shave in the morning understand what it means. As we look out into

the future, does this growth continue? Is the analyst view that this growth continues?

BURKE: I think there are some people who are skeptical and after they see the numbers it is undeniable. When you talk about international growth,

there is a tidbit here that really got my attention. China, they finally figured out how they will deal with the China question. They're not going

to try and go in and fail the way the other tech companies did.

Instead of doing that, they will just distribute their content. I think you could see major revenue coming out of China.

QUEST: I think I will buy you a razor for Christmas, thank you, sir.

Jon Bon Jovi says too many workers are "living on a prayer".

From classic rock, to what he calls a new type of philanthropy, the rock star talking about putting an end to inequality. It's Quest Means

Business, and you will have a chance to enjoy make, create, and innovate.

[16:50:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Jon Bon Jovi says too many Americans are just two paychecks away from being homeless. Now it sounds like an unlikely topic, perhaps you

might think for a rock star but behind the hairspray, the guitar solos and the designer jeans Bon Jovi music is all about ordinary workers, those

struggling to get by in modern American.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JON BON JOVI, ROCK STAR: Tommy used to work on the docks, down on his luck, union been on strike, he's down on his luck --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: He is soon releasing his new album in some three years. In the meantime, he has found a different calling, a foundation dedicated to

affordable housing and ending inner city hunger.

He sat down with CNN Money's Maggie Lake.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BON JOVI: I think that without trying to sound political, there are a lot of disenfranchised folks who honestly I wrote songs about for 30 years.

Two paychecks away from living out on the streets.

I didn't write that song yesterday. I know what that means. You and I come from the same hometown. A wonderful middle class New Jersey town

where both parents worked for a living, and they were able to provide you a pretty darn good growing up.

Not everybody's blessed with that. There are a lot of folks disenfranchised because they're saying where is my piece of the American

pie? Where is the dream? And I understand that. But polarization is not going to solve anyone's problem. Eventually if we don't start working

together and forget the politics of politics, we are going to create a society of haves and the have nots.

MAGGIE LAKE, CNN MONEY CORRESPONDENT: Doe the private sector need to do more?

BON JOVI: I think so. Private public partnerships are things that make the Soul Foundation tick. It was getting tax credits for building new

houses with our money, our millions of dollars and we have zero subsidies in the Soul Kitchen. No government money whatsoever. It's mine or donated

funds from the private sector.

LAKE: He started the Soul Foundation ten years ago. His goal providing affordable housing and meals for struggling families. The result is what

Bon Jovi calls a new model of philanthropy.

With the Soul Kitchen, it is interesting, you seem to have great faith in people. Because you have a concept where you choose what you pay.

BON JOVI: Let me clarify our model. We created what we have a pay it forward model. If you or I were to walk in a restaurant and you're in

need. You're met by our hostess, who will explain to you, have you been here before? Yes, no? And they will tell you the model, there are no

prices on the menu, if you're in need, you volunteer.

That pays for a meal for you and for your family, should you choose to not participate, and you want to enjoy a meal, effect direct change, we suggest

you buy a pay it forward card so that you not only affect a change by paying for your meal, but the one next to you, in order for the model to

work, we need participation.

LAKE: And it also empowers those.

BON JOVI: That's the key, empowering the individual, because not only are we giving them that meal, but you see the light in their eyes and that is

really what we did.

[16:55:00] LAKE: How is this collective experience fed into your new album? You do have new music coming out.

BON JOVI: I do.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BON JOVI: This house is not for sale --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BON JOVI: The record encompasses everything that happened in my life in the last three years. There are most definitely lines from the coffee mug

in the soul kitchen that says all are welcome at our table. And I think that's a line. I'll put that into the song, and we have the closing number

on the record is come on up to our house. All are welcome at our table where you will never feel alone. Come on up to our house and I'll leave

the porch light on. It directly has affected many story lines.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Absolutely fascinating. We'll have a Profitable Moment after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

QUEST: Tonight's Profitable Moment. Tonight we showed you the way in which the U.S. election has been in terms of the people, the profits, and

the polls. In my travels last week, where ever I was, Luxembourg, Stockholm or London, you all asked me the same question. Can Donald Trump

win? As we showed you tonight, yes, he can, but it is starting to get more difficult for that to happen.

He has to take the important swing states like Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. And at the moment, that seems unlikely because as

we heard from David Chalian, earlier in the program, those are now trending towards Hillary Clinton. Put this all together and with what Heather Long

was saying about the stock market which apparently has never been wrong since the 1940s and the trend seems to be clear.

[17:00:00] We're not saying who will win, we are merely saying that is the way it is looking tonight, and that is QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight.

I'm Richard Quest in New York. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I hope it is profitable. I'll see you tomorrow.

END